this is a bit fresh, happy new year. the weather brought to you by visit castle. it was supposed to be a refuse, but south, coolly as brothers home was allegedly the scene of torture. right. and even murder $1.00 oh, $1.00 east investigates the crimes. and those set to be behind on, on the the war and your plane shows. and this will sign of ending with continued destruction and losses on both sides sanctions against russia continued. perhaps its economy is growing. and then the us political support for your claims was that is on depression. so what could happen in 2024? this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm elizabeth put on them older ukrainian president, lot him is a landscape, denies that many of the believe the role and ukraine. is it a stalemate? this might much fall in financial and military aid. i'm managing to hold russian forces back you claims efforts on the battlefield. have one little ground recently bipartisan support for ukraine and the u. s. has disintegrated, threatening funding with uncertainty to post by next year. is us presidential election for russia. they have been high and military casualties, but it seems to have whether much of the economic damage from wind ranging sanctions. so what could happen militarily and politically in 2024. and will it be a decisive? yeah, and the will, will be asking these questions and more of, i guess shortly,

but for just latoria gazing be looks at how the was momentum shifted over the past year. this time last year. hope's well high and ukraine that it's minute tree could press home the advantage of the game that tools and a push russian food is out of much of the territory they'd seize is 2022. 0 yeah, that hasn't happened. and the front line has barely moved. now, keith is increasingly worried about the future of western aid for it's worth it. ukraine has had a very, very difficult year, and it's made, made more difficult by debates that have been happening in the united states and europe. about how the west can continue to send that financial aid and military aid going forward. russian president vladimir putin se se setbacks. the international criminal quotes indicted him for real crimes committed to gates,

ukrainian children that made it impossible for him to travel to many countries. benny faced the biggest challenge to his authority and his move in 2 decades in power. a mutiny by the wagner mess and re group it backfired. putin diffused the revolt and reasserted is hold on the kremlin. prouder. m a shrugged the part of the 2 white flag, the chief and mutilated. you have any provision was killed in a plane crash months later, militarily peace and go to victory. he wanted in a fight for the bomb down the city of bass, moved out of the say west and sanctions or damaging, but not crippling. the russian economy. the domestic fondest was in pretty good. he's managed to protect the war as a 5 russia against the west and the russian. somebody who's buying it and they are going to sacrifice human lives. and um, also economically so that the most of the comments directs what the war a decent is playing a waiting game. calculating the western powers will be fractured by political

divisions and rated by will fatigue and the support for ukraine will crumble down. let's say nato is committed to supporting ukraine and will, will likely trego on route 2024. victoria k to be i, which is a rest the inside story that spring in august. and moscow is pablo seligman how a russian military and defense analyst enrolled michael boss. o 2 global affairs analyst and senior fellow at the atlantic councils. you raise your center. and then dublin is chris. we foot chief executive officer of macro advisory that say strategic consultancy with the focus on russia and the you raise your region 8 very well. and welcome to all of you, mr. feldman. how let me start with you in moscow? russia seems to be out spending out manning alpha gunning ukraine. just how strong is the russian position entering 2024 as well. the rest of the position? yes, it's strong and of course fresh is

a much bigger country with more population that much more robust, industry defense industry. and also it has lots of oil and natural gas and other resources it can be sold on the marketplace. ukraine has few. so, i mean, the ukraine versus russian. well, that's a foregone conclusion. but of course, ukraine has eyes and the west and other industrial nations of a so called ramstein group of about the mentions which have in together about, well, maybe a 100 times more g, d, b, rush of this. of course, their commitment does not toto. so as a result, there is a kind of the still make a bloody still made on the battle to the where the stalemate in all respects of

this prospect where neither side has a decisive superiority. yeah, absolutely. so a stand still that and 2nd, just stand still along most of the frontline, despite major fighting high casualty rates and the military rags missed a both. so if you, let me bring you in here, in the military's rags, they certainly seems to be a growing opposition in ukraine for post. soviet management styles within the senior leadership is ukraine at its most perilous position since the russian invasion 92 years ago. so um, i wouldn't say that i think kinda ukraine has a lot in its arsenal in his back pocket that it has him deployed. yeah, and for example, it is getting those high more as missiles from the united states, the more powerful ones, the ones with longer range. and i'm told that some of them may be care capable, actually of not only poke a hole in that kurtz straight braids,

which is mr. pretends pet project, but also a bite of military supply line for russia. but it could be obliterated completely. so i think we've yet to see that real fire power being used. um, the other kind of wild card here is that even though there's something like 61000000000 um on the line from the united states to provide to you credit with more 8 and 50000000000 from here in your hopefully that will come through for you credit but if it doesn't, the other wild card is to 300000000000 or so in front of pros and russian assets in western countries. canada, us, uh, belgium, places like that. so if the western allies were to get their act together and be able to unfreeze that and get into crane's way, i think that could really put your grant over the top in terms of being able to strength back even more with more advanced wiper rate. because we fit in in dublin,

that's a very big wildcard, isn't it? using frozen russian assets in western nations against russ. sure. how likely is that as well? we hear that the officials in brussels and washington of course, are talking more about it. they're pushing for it, stay the want, this, but it's against still opposition to or against the advice from, from the legal community and from the c, b, a protector. who are, are concerned that any such move against sovereign, this is a central bank, as is, would leads to, you know, kind of a prolonged legal claims against the ticket where most of the money is now frozen. and in particular could undermine confidence in the, the euro, and in the europe, your zone for this community. and remember, this comes at a time when tomorrow, due to bricks, community, and which china rush of course, are very dominant. but that expands with the exclusion of countries like egypt and

saudi arabia. so freezing is officials of all reset to freezing art, sorry, looking to confiscate and use russian solver and assets could lead to a backlash against your, by these broader bricks, tennessee. so it's a political ambition, but it comes against a lot of caution. a lot of concern by those in the e. c. b and the legal community. yeah, that remains a big if something we have seen as sanctions or the needy last 2 years. and as well mentioned, despite those sanctions, the russian economy shows focus from the russian economy that it's growing. mr. feldman how just, how effective, how much of an impact have the sanctions had russia has found incredible ways of circumventing them? hasn't it? it was being done to try to circumvent the sanction. sometimes that's more successful sometimes. not the russian g d b this year. yes, it is wrong,

but the guy situation that slow rather than normal because of this war, it's a kind of industrial war across it pro 20 century industrial war. that means there's increase to budgetary spending. increased uh, another trip reduction that good does that play the ged? yes. and percentage points it will grow. but that does not mean that everything and brushes very fine and thinking it's not that the fact that though there are serious problems, russia does have problems. plus, your brain has lots of problems, and that's why the, you, mr. felton, how would you say the bigger problem, the problem? what would you say the biggest problems and challenging, facing challenges facing russia to the russian production of modern weapons? though there's been a lot of talk, but it's increased and it does increase, but from

a very low start. so there's not enough. and then the really modern weapons their problems in reducing modern drums, modern brains, modern tanks and the say there's a very serious problem. good civil aviation or push us as there is going to be to that 1000 new several aviation planes by the year 2030. but that seems rather foss, search and rush is a very, very big country, the better rather bad roads without the civil aviation, the country, or maybe i should begin to disintegrate. possibly if you're still going to be very serious problems, and everyone knows that. so there's a lot really for the pressure would need to make better. and that's why you're really trying to get some kind of a ceasefire right now. i mean, just stabilize the situation as it is. wouldn't be seen, most likely of moscow is advantageous. oh,

that's interesting. i'm michael both actually one of the challenges for your client that really struck out to me is that you know, the west is urgent ukraine to keep going with this war effort. but the average age i was waiting for the ukrainian armed forces is 43. it's 35 by comparison for russia. i mean, who was a forced by the young? are they not? does the fact that you claim soldiers of almost middle age man? what does that mean for manpower? yeah, well i think the biggest problem is that the men and women on the front lines have spent way too much time without a break. so we were saying the emergence of protests in cuba and other cities of mothers and wives and sons and daughters are really loving the creative governments, but time limits on how much time of day the trip to spend at the front line. so that's why we're now hearing the news of a possible mass mobilization, $500000.00 plus your gradients, which will give those other guys

a break at the front line. we'll see if that happens, but it does indicate that ukraine has to kind of change that mix of people who are exciting. of course, the other thing that's happening is you well, no or the barrage of drones and missiles that mr. put in is sending over, including the one just a few days ago and just overnight in the past 24 hours to kind of queue of, um, i think that indicates that all is not well on the russian side of the front line that mr. brewton is resorting to a very cowardly way of fighting by sending messages and drawings to the ways of maternity hospitals, scores, churches, anyone who does that, you know, it's tough to call that most strong dictate, or i think you have to call them a got word. so you create knows that, and i think there's a limited supply of how many missiles they can send over. it's very expensive then

one more thing. if i may kind of wal card as well, or ron is a big backer of rocks on terms of supplying drones. but, you know, they're also, uh that is, you know, um, backing has been law and come us and guys, um and uh, a lot of, uh, thinking now is that uh they will be facing much more not even, not just sanctions, but strikes as well to limit their capabilities as well. of course there has been a lot of attention on israel's war on gaza. mr. feldman, how let me bring you in here? how does ma schofield could, must close gain from the attention that has been on israel's will. on guys a hasn't mentioned that there's less attention on what russia's doing and ukraine a little maybe there was some hope that that would be the big jayce. but this is seeing that as well, a fully play out for many european countries of the rush,

it'd be crazy and russian conflict is much closer to home than the one in the middle east. so to conflicts at the same time doesn't mean that each problem for to bind to benefit or some other going to benefit from the other. i don't see right now. much changing. don't this call that yes. in the west there's going to be a change your car. and basically there's hope that the western governments will begin to apply pressure on the yes to find some kind of a ceasefire situation. a freezing of the present state disapproval, more or less. i mean, that's called the kind of the korea and the decision. what happens in the korean war when there was a bloody scale man, defend it in uh, a truce, a line of control. and of course the wrong, the rock or the 8th is also the industrial war and that in that, in that true state eventually. but that doesn't always happened. the 1st. busy

worse, it was a bloody stalemate, but there's and there's a one of the sides collapsing. so it's either that's a ceasefire on the winds, as it is right now in the coming maybe months or come a year for mainly southern we wanted besides the buying to collapse just a way for do you see what do you think of what mr. feldman? how is saying, do you see wisdom countries pushing any pressure on ukraine to accept some kind of a sci fi? do you see them using more economic sanctions? more economic tools at the disposal in 2024, especially given how the sanctions have been circumvented as well. so that'd be obviously we can just comments on what we hear from, from the us and from europe. where on the one hand it's tier, there is difficulty in the white house and the commission getting more financial

supports for ukraine. but on the other hand, all politicians are equally clear in their continuing support for ukraine. and in this conflict a terry, this is going to be a bigger issue. this coming into 2024. we have the us selection, of course, the major ones november there would be also likely parliamentary elections in the united kingdom, of course, which is a big backer of ukraine and other elections as well around the world. so it's uh, you know, it's something we are going to see debaters more and more, but i would expect we will see more sanctions that we've already heard from brussels. that there is some for piracy work being done for the 12th. and even the 13 inch round of sanctions, but it is becoming more difficult for the u. d. c. to get consensus. we saw how long it took to get approval for the sanctions that were just and as the, in the most recent packaged 11 package because of objections from se brussels

against the diamond sanctions they hungry against uranium sanctions, etc. so it's be, it's becoming a lot more difficult. um let me just say though, it, you know, obviously just cover thing on the year. we just had, as you said, the rest of the economy has performed much better on almost all of for us g p is likely to be somewhere between $3.00 and $3.00. now percent, the trade cars are kind of surfaces rising towards the end of the year. so a big improvement, particularly in the 2nd half of the year when oil income rose. so as russia goes into 2024, it is facing board ahead wins. um, 1st of all, of course the, the comparison, the bases year and year the growth numbers won't look as goods and 1224 against 23 . i, but also the old price is a lot lower globally, the price of brands. it's a lot lower because of concern over the chinese economy. it's actually which will limit russia's income and also weak starting to see some upstate more difficult aspects of the financial sector sanctions in particular, it means for example,

india is finding it difficult to pay russia for the oil that it's importing it wants to pay. but of course, with these are controls and therefore would require that this money is not coming up to russia as quick. so 2024 won't be a disaster or it won't be kind of a like a down year for us yet. but it will be a more difficult years and we've had in 2023. there are more head winds building for sure because of the accumulation to share in volume of sanctions in place. and mr. both ok. what about 2024, participating in the prospects for ukraine, given the elections that mr. we've mentioned the us presidential election, the u. k. elections, european parliament elections. yeah. i'm sure, as you kind of worried about the prospect of a trump presidency. sure. and i'll get to that in a 2nd, but if i can just throw in a couple of more figures, i mean with very,

very limited resources. ukraine has been able to destroy about 20 percent of the russian black fleet. and according to atlantic council figure is about 50 percent of russian conventional military capability. so if you're talking about headwinds in 2020 part for rush for that's going to add to it. i think come yeah, absolutely. the us selection especially, is going to be a really, really big factor in terms of what happens between ukraine and rush shops. i think mr. put in is trying to run down the clock, keep the work going until the likes, and hoping that trump or mac a republican will get in. and then within the 1st few days of the administration kind of deal that won't be in ukraine's favor. so a lot of concern in key is above that, where the election will go enhance. that's why there is an urgency right now to get that 61000000000 or so and funding released. but you know, i just travel to many, many countries around the world and i still feel that among the electorate,

the support for supporting ukraine is high just quickly. the reason why being that a lot of people are beginning to realize that we're so interconnected these days that if russia decides to further weaponized food of energy migration, this will have immediate, almost immediate run medications for electrons, the electricity around the world. but the spot that support you're speaking about if we haven't seen the us, congress approves at $61000000.00 in aid to ukraine. mr. feldman, how to view in moscow? looking ahead to these elections in the west and that u. k. and that you will be in parliament with russia hosting for as well. there is some hope, but not that very much understood that in the, the sooner rather than most likely in january of the america. and i'm in the beltway and washington, and they'll figure out their internal problems and

a crane is going to be in the pipeline and the ages buying to come from european nations. so let us put the that much hopes that there is going to be in the media. change your card, but there is hope that the, the grow, the continued a blood shift to continue and war. uh, and then being unresolved globalcom with will bring a change of heart in the west. that is the, that's more of a walk or, or probably would be, there is some hope on that, but not the mediately and mr. vasa to, what would it take? again, heading into 2024. what do you think it will take? will spoken about many of the challenges for ukraine to not lose the school so well, ukraine is making some right moves. so for example,

they've triple defense production within new grains. they managed to clump down on corrupt actors who have ripped off the army in other parts of the government. this is a very, very bad signal for the west disease. and um, i think the other thing that has to happen in washington is they the white house and the state department has to get over. it is inexplicable of mine said, where is rock, shaw and plough is because of the war and ukraine and other factors that there had wins, that this is actually not a bad thing. but there's a mindset that that can be allowed to happen in the other one. i still think in many capitals around the world and putting them in washington, mr. put in is still drenched his threats of nuclear, tactical nuclear weapons. and that sort of thing is still making the decision makers over their nervous, so they have to get over these uh,

this mindset. and i think that will further allow ukraine to strike, for example, deeper inside the inside right side and, and especially legitimate military and target. those have to be taken care of as well. mr. way so do you, what do you think the chances are of russia imploding, how much of a hindrance do you think the west has? the west has been in your claims and your claims in support of your claims. rather, it was and there is no evidence. right now that, that there is any danger of rush and floating day the country is, is currently very stable. i think we can talk about that the head winds, as we mentioned earlier on the problems and the economy in areas such as deteriorating demographics, all of which will become a serious problems for the government to do it over the next several years. provided the current situation remains, but otherwise, you know,

the country is stable. uh the, the evidence that i can see on the street. i mean if we do, you can disregard the opinion polls, but just talking to people and traveling around the country. i don't see any evidence that people are, you know, pushing back against the government. they're there. one comes, the economy is, is, is rosy. stable really comes are going up. unemployment is only by 3 and a half percent, which actually isn't good. but at least, you know, it means that there is that as disability, that the one area of concern, of course is whether or not that would be another round of mobilization. this is a, i think the number one concern for, for people in the country and then the government course keeps denying that they have any plans or if that is likely to happen. but if we don't have mobilization that on the economy remains more or less as it is even, but the decline next year, as i said, then i don't see any reason whatsoever to assume that the countries facing any risk of a breakup or of, of, of instability is, is just simply no evidence of that's

a physical look at the moment. that's a falcon. how. how do you see having the upper hand in 2024? well as i say, this is the store mate. and that means the most logical way to deal with this thelma this to find a way to freeze the situation and the fight in the have a organize the fire one of control way can catch me or. and so i can korea, like, and cyprus and many other places that with them that can be done that, that seems the most logical way to get out of this situation, which is bad basically for every month. but will that happen to? that's another question right now, the doesn't seem to be the political will china try and you have this year and 23 to make some kind of move as a. and they most likely to be the best equipped to put some pressure on all sides to get some kind of solution,

some kind of freezing of the situation. they fail. all the others are not being able to close or so that's, that seems logical, but that does all right, right now that we have we have less than a minute left and i'd like to ask a mr. ballistics, you do see russia holding onto the territory. it's occupied in ukraine or anything changing in 2024. well let's, let's remember that this war actually started in 2014, when the little green men came in and when russia illegally onyx the crimea. so those, those parts are still in contents. and if you will, but i think you cream would try very hard to separate that line, bridge between mainland restaurant premier, one more quick thing. i know we only have a few seconds, but i also would like to see natal grove bit of spine and stand up more to rush out of the fact that a russian missile the other day was able to spend 3 minutes in polish aerospace on

challenge. imagine if that had happened in china, of a hospital missile had entered chinese, there a space for that might be time to match it with their reaction would be no, it has to, that's a name that this is not tolerable. it's close to nature and you're paying union membership is a whole. another issue that we will have to say for another episode, but thank you to own of i guess for this episode it is possible felt in how i'm michael both. so to and chris, we fed and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, which is the com. i prefer the discussion go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash 8 and 5 story. you can also join the conversation on x. a handle is at a inside story from me, elizabeth put on them and the whole team here, bye for now. the a unique solution voice

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