to the us, alexis refusing for the action not just gives you a sense of what an easy target this places out as it was, teams across the world. when you closer to the fox of the story. yvonne specimens retaliation octave tube last came over 18 people during commemorations for an assassination general set to be the worst attack since the 1979 revolutions of how was paid on z yet. and is there a risk of escalation in the region? this is inside story, the hello and welcome to the program. i'm elizabeth put on him. it is one of the worst attacks to hit around and decades. more than

a 2 people were killed in the southeastern city of catamount. on wednesday, when 2 explosives went off, joined a crowded procession. the timing of the attack is significant that happened during the so many mocking full years since the us assassinated, one of yvonne's top generals costs. and so the money the attack is adding yes, another layer of tension in the region. this israel's one gaza, this week's assassination of i'm off come on to 11 on and now this attack in iran. so is there a connection? and will these suspicions have different governments and on goods escalate the volumes? we'll get to those questions in a moment, but 1st this report from katia lopez hold a young of the 2 bombs exploded during the crowded procession marking for years since the us assassination of a runs top military commander costs. and so the money who up until his stubs was among the most powerful men in advance. sulu money led around the

revolutionary guards could force which handles overseas operations, including providing weapons, money, and logistical support to own groups in the region, including husband law and tomas. it ran immediately, blink israel, for the attack by one design is raising without a doubt you will pay the price for this crime. these crimes you've committed, you will deeply regret the us state department denies the accusations and points to a lack of evidence. the united states was not involved in any way. and any suggestion to the contrary is ridiculous. and number 2, we have no reason to believe that israel was involved in this explosion. a and recent years on groups including i still have carried out a tax against civilians and security forces in around in $21712.00 people were killed when i saw a targeted around parliament building. and the 2 of the republics,

a revolutionary founder that the attack comes at a time of high tensions in the region. israel has not lit up and it's war ongoing and 11 on capital. the 2nd most powerful commander of how mosque was assassinated on tuesday. and then the parent is rarely strikes what it is, what does it have to do? this estimation of one of the master's top leaders in lebanon is yet another fact that could indeed escalate the conflicting cause that's kind of and now this latest attack and a ran risk escalating an already fragile situation in the region that's been on edge for months, caught see a little bit of a yen oh to 0 for insight stores the spring and i guess and pet on is how soon. ok, madame, professor of middle east studies at the university of pet on. and then in ali for

thought, i measured on the founder and director of the center for middle east and global order. and in bethlehem, i'm on shy with alton, a research fellow of the middle east forum with a special expertise on i. so very well welcome to all of you, mr. via and from what we know about this attack sofa who operates in this 9 a to bombings in quick succession targeting civilians. and now there hasn't been any office of talk on this or an official announcement. obviously there is investigation ongoing to figure out who and how it was pulled off. and but, but so far we don't have any official announcement on the issue. but of course, yvonne's original policy and poster has put it in recent decades at loggerheads with the 2 prime suspects in the eyes of the way the ends of those are, as i says,

and it says to organizations and these right, these under back cuz these are the 2 prime suspects, especially when it went in analysis coming out in different outlets. and i think because these are the 2 parties that have, it seems inherent interest at this point to hit yvonne with and its internal security. they are being uh, you know, uh, taken as the most probable uh, you know, a parties that have all this off. okay. missed the phone and as uh we are hearing from yvonne in lead is they're not saying exactly who they think it is, but they have said things like the head of the revolution regards. code fulls has said that they blamed design us treasury mendez, ally the united states that they're looking to was israel and the united states.

but if we look at again at how this attack has been carried out, it doesn't carry the whole marks of past previous attacks. by israel does it? that's correct, actually because, i mean, i think 1st of all, we should be extremely cautious about the kind of official narrative that we're hearing from the song republic and also state media and it wrong. we're blaming the usual suspects. um, you know, ease rather than most of the united states by the way. but if you look at the past is rarely a, you know, attached in iran. and they were very clearly targeting um the receipt and its the infrastructure fee to military or nuclear. and uh plus um there is also um, you know, the realization of these relative there was a white gulf between states assigned to new rocks. and i think there was no appetites to execute instructional edition against civilian sooner on that may lead

. so to get around your society turning against israel. so i think, you know, the probably ability that these road was behind this attack is quite low. yeah. and mr. ultimate me, i know that you also saying that the probability of israel carrying out this attack is low again when you look at where the bottoms will place from what we know so far about where the bonds replace not near the ceremony itself. that was, we believe attended by senior regime officials, but you know, where ordinary people who do support the regime but, or do we pay for what, what can, can we some minds from this that the target, you know, wasn't senior ronnie and regime officials a, c, d i create a spectrum a on to precise target, but in general, from the if you take it from united states standpoint, then any e, uranium civilian a civilian doesn't matter,

was the governmental nor any. we're used to being who is a c i o. c, k is considered and what they call a rock diet and an app is saved from responding to full. would you be targeted date and the groups i, as in this matches with positive types, they tare doubting iran. um, for instance, uh in the last one the claim died. steve was in october of 2022. and that wasn't the targeting senior officials, those already are the rating done as a long time, didn't the way it was just and it's inflicting mass casualties. among ordinary people are just being c on this is in the city of c riser. and one thing i actually would add is that, um we con, well do we're waiting for some kind of statement to the is the assignment today, just give this to say anything about this. yeah, it is. you all the next set on i. so i, i'm sorry to interrupt,

but given you are an expert on iso, doesn't the group usually take responsibility pretty quickly when it does carry out attacks? well, this is what i was going to say about this. now i see that they don't always claim every time they do around the well. and that could be for a variety of reasons, because i actually want to point out that there was another type in your eyes as well in august of last year. and the radio is arrested, the operative and sentenced them to uh, i think center this is desiree call, then identifying them as a member of the islamic stage. it was originally from subject to start. but these obviously, i never claim that it's hard. i mean, it could be the designing stage, did the website and then dozens claimants because it was to say, leaved out and have the wrong point being. is there other ideas and contributing to

this uh, why to set the instability. i also basically the explore or most of the tensions, especially incredibly high in the region and iran has vowed to retaliate, but they'll have to, it's incredibly important at this stage to find who's responsible, isn't it just how difficult is it to find to get to the bottom of such an attack, it's very hard and i think they are now in they are trying their best to find out to find who did it, and then to think it to basically who supported it from abroad. i mean, depending on the who is, has supported of this farm and i think uh, yvonne's response will this if it's isis, i think uh, yvonne will go after its leadership in different places in the region of honest on

iraq, syria and the syrian, the rocky border uh that, so i think uh that has been the case previously. it will be the case moving forward . but if it's israel and i hear this a bit, i don't to completely roll out these really possibility here because 11 on and the 8 is wrong. i'm the minute speaks about this in his book. these really is a supported parties that committed such crimes within the lab and on so you couldn't really roll it out to. so i agree, it's a no possibility because the attack seems to be very much administered into what isis usually has been doing in recent years, but you can't throw this out as well. but these are the possibilities. so if it's israel, i think that's another issue. they writing a response should be calibrated in a way to deter not only israel, but it's back or the main, uh, fish, anyone's strategic. and you know,

conduct and the region that is the united states to do to both. and, and that's i think, is a very complicated and a very sophisticated, a good thing to pull off because what's at stake is not totally alonzo, internal stability. in that case, it's the ones deterrence and determine simple terms is basically, you know, backend what the conditional threats by a pilot projection yvonne doesn't respond that projection and that conditional threat collapse on outgo. yvonne's determinants will collapse. so i think the way it is we'll, we'll find it hard not to respond in one way or another to these here. absolutely, mr. for the image as you touch the on, you know, some of the problems between the iranian state and society fights is from mean there are various groups and yvonne itself is the fight is from below just on there

are the, you know, ethnic arab separate shows. they have staged attacks in iran in the past. would they have an interest due to carrying out such an attack? again, based on past experience, not telling me over the last few years, but over the last 4 decades. i think we have to be extremely cautious about, you know, about naming all those possible attempted traitors. i mean, it could well be that the groups that have been mentioned so far. i've been developed to try to of this attack with also given past experience could well be that is it, it isn't kind of inside job because there is a long history of structure inside jobs from the very start of the stomach resolution to a, just a few years ago, remember the r g c a shooting down in the ukraine in a passenger jet and saying that actually it was not to the r g c. so there was

a long history and i think it didn't. all of that. the context is much more important to you, but what i'm saying is the 1st one initial, when you say an inside job, can you explain exactly what you mean the for? sure. so i think, i mean, i, you know, i mean, you should talk about this possibility. um, you know, the, the context is important to context is that these non republic, despite the appearance of being very strong and very stable from the outside, has lots of problems. both at home, but also in terms of foreign policy. and you know, most importantly, iran is going to have double elections in march of for the parliament, but also the assembly of experts who's going to select the next supreme leader. so there is a lot of complications about those 2, but also there was a resume realization about the lack of social mobilization and photo turn out. and the reputation of historically, both the, you know, low virtual turnouts this time around as well. so this uh, you know, the subtract,

whoever might be the focus, right, to really, whatever might be the path to try to, i think may be used by the iranian state. just the secure, it ties the domestic jarine up also and you of the domestic was that i just explained against the backdrop of and still existing, very profound economic price. yeah. so you're saying you're saying that the iranian government might have something to gain. it sounds like from this attack, so when you say inside job, you're implying that elements within the regime itself could have carried out such an attack. you know, because i mean the, you know, and then you know, you have to look at that. you're very so really you have to look at at, you know, you have to consider past experience, but those are times we have never known for sure it would have been the perfect trace. has there been multiple, a circle, entire subtracts in around, over the last few years, many of which, you know, have been blamed on divers, many of which have been blamed on all of the other usual suspects,

but also some of which turns out to be, you know, have the hands of the or one state as well. so i think i well yeah, well the other guess the, because i can see that both of them have something to say about this document and i will come to you in just a moment. but if i can get to mr. alton, meaning i know that you have said it's as unlikely that the wrong carried out this attack as israel. so what's your response to what you're hearing that i yes, i do buying the idea that it was in the rainy in the inside. don't they mean just the timing of it and the number of people were killed and so it discriminant. and uh and uh, in regards actually to retired to one of the guys, references shooting down and like, i don't really know, evenings intentionally did that, they did that then they signed to colorado is likely to it was interesting to know . yeah. yeah. you know, being able to die. okay. um, so again, i, again, i don't think you can say that besides and yet the,

as long as they did that. and so i, the receiving comes our investigation happens. although it just seems that it has a whole lot of software, but it seems much more like that and then bring it inside jobs. so young steps come back on. okay, mr. if i told him this out, if i can come back, come back to you and look at the symbolism behind the attack itself. you know, what is the message behind attacking the tomb of a man? who was a chief architect of the ronnie and policy across the region. you know, he was, he was the commander of the revolution regards overseas codes force or the seeing phases in iraq and syria and 11 on and yeah, and then i mean to, to clarify my previous points. i'm not definitely suggesting that there was an inside job, but i'm just as you know, basing my argument on past experience, which i have of showing me very mixed picture about the wide range of possibilities

behind the term, subtracts in iran, and currently the situation of the resume much, much more dire. i explained briefly the domestic situation, but also regionally the, the stronger republic has been the interesting severe blows with the killing of the top r a g. c come entering syrian but also the kidding availability in the biggest routes . so i think it's at least a welcome, you know, a digression from jersey that a subject of talk has now happens when it comes to study money. i think there's a lot of myths about, you know, the status that it's, that he holds within your, on, in society. there is certainly a that there has been a period in which many iranians believe that he's who was a national euro. but i think this kind of a big church is much more contested over the last few years in iran. also given a extreme uh, you know,

wide golf that is now involved between the bulk of the wrong and society and the regime of the other 4. i to as to whether yeah, and i know that you wanted to come in earlier when we were talking about, you know, mr. settled initial. i've said that while he's not implying that yvon elements within the volume regime itself could have carried out this attack. but certainly it might have something to gain from that. it might be a welcome distraction given the immense pressure is it's on the internally and of, of, from international groups as well. a while i definitely with that for you, because i think yvonne at this point more than have a needs its deterrence, visa v israel and the united states. given this condition in the region, i can't do what mr. fentler's on the job is describing to say, well, securitized internal because the radians, i mean there's not a public's main legacy, is that it kept iran. it's table in a region into

a model. now a security bridge, a bridge on, on this scale, is a blow to that narrative. how can that be the case? i think that's a one. i mean, this non co public has a lot to lose more than it can gain from such an incident. so i think that's uh, i mean, if they went in a position usually talks about a subject, incidence being internal jobs. well the, the only incident is the, the ad saying that they were late to clear just declared responsibility. and that was an incident. now this can to be an incidence. it's a bomb in planet, you know, in the crowd that were commemorating what's force assassinated. very, you know, celebrated hero and a right nation. and people were, were going there to, to take part in that. and these people are the social base host is not

a good public. there's not a good public. uh, i mean the for the sake of the argument of it based on the public, even if it does so, which i didn't see any evidence in that. it wouldn't hit its own base. all right. what about other groups, mr. alton? they went just sorry i missed a for the one and i shall i can see you wanting to come in here a. yeah, i think, i mean, 1st of all, to clarify the record about the r g c, shooting down the ukraine and fighter judge according to canadian court's rulings. you know, this was probably in the tensional attack, so there is, in fact, a long history. i mean, instead of my rec site mention to the very beginning of the revolution and also, you know, later on. so just as not so, you know, as i'm trying to see here. um, so uh, just to, uh and, and in terms of to turns yes to turns is important. but also what is part of the iranian national security doctrine somehow also the some republics security

doctrine is the need for crises. you know, it crises can also be a very useful and can be instrumental lies by the states for regions to, for the 2 purposes. so, do this context also, maybe. right. okay. mr. alton, maybe let me bring you in here. there's some disagreements because the attack was on some southern montes around has to let me bring you in here because there's a difference of views on his, on his legacy. mr. federal image out saying that, you know, he's, he's not the, he wrote that he was painted to be, what do you make of that? and the groups again, the groups that would be interested in carrying out in the tax on the 4th anniversary of his assassination. yes, and we going to do a positive and so they might need like a z a b, it really depends who you ask him to read it. so i mean the,

the people say in the direct passage log close the ron, these the image is 0. who is important in the fight against the is bonding stage and also fairly raining and elements and, and syria as well. uh, being very high in a very proud to resolve these events. that's huge encounters with an operations. the other end of the syrian does it all in alaska, for example, but then there are others. do see in for most of jerry, i was the persecutor of sidney. isn't responsible for mass giving of sydney's whether it's senior year or whether in iraq and or, and also later as in boy, the runs governments. and so there are the other groups that say for example, play out through narratives to balance or so the persecution near on the light to some models and also uh, it isn't moving based in syria or of uranian and assuming textiles as well. come to

syria, enjoying use agency, then put out a statement about this use of the sent me using the ryan so they could also have an interest in doing some kind of like inside that inside the the don't john cost them . so they money. okay. um, but no, i'm just interested in the scale. i don't think. all right, we don't have very long left in the program. so i'd like to ask them each of you, final questions to ask me to the on do you think, how much has this attack increase the chance of a wider escalation of violence in the region? would you say, i think it comes in the time of the original escalation already, and that's what the top point is, the finger at israel, and it's possible by kind of such an incident. so as i said to him, if it's for miss durham innocent of what causes us to do, but the possibility of being that if it being backed or another group being backed by israel, is still there. and that will open the door wide to original escalation. and

because if yvonne doesn't respond, it's quite ability and it's a deterrence will be at stake. yeah. and if it does, if it responds and i think, well, if it comes to a conclusion that is really is behind it, then we will see a more escalation in the region. i think this will be a regional a response, and these are, these will try to attract the united states and picture that goes to ron or possibly other countries to try to put, put more pressure on the right. yeah. listed for the image. i do think that as well as trying to drive the united states into a wide, a regional conflict with iran, it is what it is trying to get seems to be united states into i think, i mean, um on your 1st question. um, despite the fact that trevor on claims that there was a link between the 2 that has to come on explosions and uh,

the one on us uh that it is basically an act of desperation. charge on carried out . but you certainly have the united states because of the complications of the work . um, i think that those are 2 distinct reading us here. um your on, uh is uh, not suicidal. it's not assigned to regime and also to kind of find revenge that iran had promised after the us drawing killing. it was sending money, never materialized, so the same caution can be observed within the world garza so neither your husband are interested in a great wordpress. uh, user and for the united states, my jeopardize rekeying. so and very quickly, mr. alton, they me, how do you see this incident playing out over the next days and weeks? it really depends on who it really depends on whom the already installed responsible. they old is honest, a responsible in times that explains it or whatever. then i think then that doesn't

change the wind to read. don't take the attention escalation of the gods a war, but it's a separate dynamic. but then if they blame is renelle, i expect some kind of maybe calibrated response of unnecessary a attempt to do on out to roll with israel and provoke a y divisional, which will be why we're all looking at that around noon investigation into what happens so closely or ice, that is a half an hour with an impact on at least i thought i measured in berlin and i mentioned i was out to me in bethlehem. thank you very much and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website onto 0 dot com. and for further discussion, do go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x a handle as at age and 5 story for me, elizabeth put on them and the entire team here. bye for now. the

this horse was a non mark and a symbol beat from the remains of cars and ambulances. israel targeted during an in be general take, do you need refugee camp in 2002? now it's been removed by the way people do research. and it shows us where this cultures to. he's proud. he was involved in creating the destruction of one humans, aims to wash their spirit and punish those, showing support for any acts of resistance. had to choose his 5 year old son, add them photos of them working on this culture and says, the process tells a lot about the kind of things to, i guess. and again, rejecting decades of internal conflict. the farmers of columbia is peace communities remain neutral. on, on, but refusing to leave their villages

a set them on a collision course with a right wing perimeter trip in an active defiance they embark on a journey to honor that the enemy territory. a witness documentary on a jersey. if we can look on how to coordinate space traffic management, we risk those to safety and the sustainability of space and worryingly, the breach of peace and security in out just makes people empower, investigates, the proliferation of commercial satellites. and the far reaching influence of those who funded it's at a tipping point. and we have a small window of opportunity to curtail catastrophic event. fighting for space on a jersey to the us is always of inside 50 for the world. people pay attention to this one here, and i'll just leave this very good that bringing the news to the world from here.

the, the israel been bought central and southern gaza hitting residential buildings and camps more than $22400.00 palestinians have now been killed since october, 7th. the on have them think of this is as you see it out live from also coming up. israel's defense minutes that lays out the war cabinets plans for the future of gaza with the aim of involving the us.