a here's from, i'll just say on the go and need tonight out is there is only mobile app. is that the, this is where we, the effects on line from out is there is a mobile app available in your favorite top to just set for it. and typed on a new app from out to 0 new at you think is it the yvon specimens? retaliation off to tube last came over 18 people during commemorations for an assassination general the set to be the worst attack since the 1979 revolution. so how will pet envoy yet, and is there a risk of escalation in the region? this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm elizabeth put on them. it is one of the worst attacks to hit around and decades. more than a 2 people were killed in the southeastern city of catamount. on wednesday, when 2 explosives went off, joined a crowd of procession. the timing of the attack is significant that happened during the so many mocking full years since the us assassinated, one of yvonne's top generals costs. and so the money the attack is adding yes, another layer of tension in the region. this israel's one gaza. this week's assassination of i'm off come on to 11 on and now this attack in iran. so is there a connection and will the suspicions of different governments and on goods escalate the volumes? we'll get to those questions in a moment. but 1st, this report from katia lopez hold a young of the 2 bombs exploded during the crowded

procession marketing for years since the us assassination overruns top military commander costs. and so the money who up until his stubs was among the most powerful men in advance. sulu money led around the revolutionary guards could force which handles overseas operations, including providing weapons, money, and logistical support to own groups in the region, including husband law and tomas. it ran immediately, blink israel, for the attack by one design is raising without a doubt you will pay the price for this crime. these crimes you've committed, you will deeply regret the us state department denies the accusations and points to a lack of evidence. the united states was not involved in any way. and any suggestion to the contrary is ridiculous. and number 2,

we have no reason to believe that israel was involved in this explosion. time in recent years on groups including i still have carried out a tax against civilians and security forces in around in $21712.00 people were killed when i sold targeted a ranch, parliament building, and the 2 of the republics, a revolutionary founder that the attack comes at a time of high tensions in the region, israel has not lit up in this war on garza and 11 on capital. the 2nd most powerful commander of homos was assassinated on tuesday. and then the parents is really strikes what it is. what does it have to do? this estimation of one of the most is top leaders and 11. and is you have to know the fact that could indeed escalate the conflicting cause that's got it. and now this latest attack and a rand risk escalating an already fragile situation in the region. that's been on

edge for months, katia, look this. what again, i'll do 0 for insights story. the spring in august and paired on is how some of them professor of literally studies at the university of fed on and been in ali for the national and founder and director of the center for middle east and global order. and in bethlehem, i'm on shy with alto, mean a research fellow of the middle east forum of special expertise on i so very well welcome to all of you, mr. via and from what we know about this attack so far. who operates in this 9 to 2 bombings in quick succession targeting civilians. now there hasn't been any office of talk on this or an official announcement. obviously there is investigation ongoing to figure out who and how it was

pulled off. i'm but, but so far we don't have any official announcement on the issue. but of course, yvonne's original policy and poster has put it in recent decades at loggerheads with the 2 prime suspects in the eyes of the way the ends of those are. so i, so senate sister organizations and these really isn't their back cuz these are the 2 prime suspects, especially when it went in analysis coming out in different outlets. and i think because these are the 2 parties that have, it seems inherent interest at this point to hit yvonne with an and it's internal security. they are being uh, you know, uh, taken as the most probable, you know, a parties that have all this off. okay. missed the phone and as i said,

we are hearing from ronnie and leaders, they're not saying exactly who they think it is, but they have said things like the head of the revolution regards. code fulls has said that they blamed design us treasury mendez, ally the united states that they're looking to was as world and the united states. but if we look at again at how this attack has been carried out, it doesn't carry the whole marks of past previous attacks by as well, does it? that's correct, actually because i mean, i think 1st of all, we should be extremely cautious about the kind of official narrative that we're hearing from the song republic and also state media. and it runs were a blaming the usual suspects. um, you know, ease rather than most of the united states by the way. but if you look at past these rarely, uh, you know, attacks in iran, they were very clearly targeting um,

the receipt and its the infrastructure being to military or nuclear. and uh plus um, there is also um, you know, the realization of these relative there was a white gulf between states assigned to new rocks. and i think there was no appetites to execute instructional protection against civilians in a wrong that may lead. so to get around your society training against you as well. so i think, you know, the probably ability that ease road was behind this attack is quite low. yeah, and mister, ultimately, i know that you also saying that the probability of israel carrying out this attack is low again, when you look at where the bottoms are placed from what we know so far about where the bombs were placed. not near the ceremony itself, that was we believe attended by senior regime officials. but you know, where ordinary people who do support the regime, but or do we pay for what, what kind of can we supplies from this, that the target, you know, wasn't senior ronnie and regime officials, a,

c d. i create a spec can a on to precise target, but in general, from the if you take it from united states standpoint, then any e, uranium civilian civilian doesn't matter what was the governmental nor any were use very who is a c i o c k is considered and what they call a rock diet and an app is saved from responding to full. would you be talking to do anything in the groups i as in this matches with pauses the types they carried out to you. right. so for instance, uh in the last one they claimed that c was in october of 2022. and that was targeting in senior officials. those already are the rating done as a long time didn't the way it was just and it's inflicting mass casualties. among ordinary people are just being c on this is in the city of c arise. and one thing i

actually would add is that, um we con, well do we're waiting for some kind of statement to the is the assignment today, just get there to say anything about this? yeah, it is. you all the next set on i. so i, i'm sorry to interrupt, but given you are an expert on iso, doesn't the group usually take responsibility pretty quickly when it does carry out attacks? well, this is what i was going to say about this. now i see that they don't always claim every time they do around the well. and that could be for a variety of reasons, because i actually want to point out that there was another type in your eyes as well in august of last year. and the radio is arrested, the operative and sentenced them to uh, i think center this is desiree call, then identifying them as

a member of the islamic state. it was originally from subject to start. but these obviously, i never claim that it's hard. i mean, it could be the designing stage, did the attack and then dozens claimants because it was to say, leaved out and have the wrong point being. is there other ideas and contributing to this uh, why to said the instability. i also basically the explore or most of the tensions, especially incredibly high in the region and iran has vowed to retaliate, but they'll have to, it's incredibly important at this stage to find who's responsible, isn't it just how difficult is it to find to get to the bottom of such an attack, it's very hard and i think they are now in they are trying their best to find out to find who did it, and then to think it to basically who supported it from abroad. i mean,

depending on the who is, has supported of this farm and i think a yvonne's response will this if it's isis, i think uh, yvonne will go after its leadership in different places in the region of honest on iraq, syria and the syrian, the rocky border uh that, so i think uh uh, has been the case previously. it will be the case moving forward. but if it's israel and on i here just a bit. i don't to completely roll out these really possibility here because and 11 on in the eighty's run him. the minute speaks about this in his book. these really is a supported parties that committed such crimes within the lab and on. so you couldn't really roll it out to so i agree, it's a no possibility because the attack seems to be very much administered into what isis usually has been doing in recent years. but you can't throw this out as well.

the, these are the possibilities. so if it's israel, i think that's another issue. they writing a response should be calibrated in a way to deter not only israel, but it's back or the main, uh, fish, anyone's strategic. and you know, conduct in the region that has the united states to do to both and, and that's, i think, is a very complicated and a very sophisticated, a good thing to pull off. because what's at stake is not totally yvonne's internal stability. in that case, it's the ones deterrence and deterrence. so simple terms is basically, you know, backend. what in the conditional threats by a pilot projection, yvonne doesn't respond that projection and that conditional threat collapse on outgo. yvonne's determinants will collapse. so okay, i think the way it is we'll, we'll find it hard not to respond in one way or another to these here. absolutely

must a, for the image as you touch the on, you know, some of the problems between the iranian state and society fights is from, i mean, there are various groups and yvonne itself is the fight is from below just on there are the, you know, ethnic arab separate shows, they have staged attacks in iran in the past. would they have an interest? do it's like i'm carrying out such an attack again, based on past experience, not telling me over the last few years, but over the last 4 decades. i think we have to be extremely cautious about um, you know, about naming all those possible attempted traitors. i mean, it could well be that the groups that have been mentioned so far. i've been default to try to of this attack would also given past experience could well be that is it, it isn't kind of inside job because there is a long history of structure inside jobs from the very start of the is thomas

resolution to a, just a few years ago, remember the r g c, a shooting down in the ukraine in a passenger judge and saying that actually it was not to the r g c. so there was a long history and i think it didn't all about the context was much more important to you. the 1st one initial, when you say an inside job, can you explain exactly what you mean the for? sure. so i think, i mean, i, you know, i mean, you should talk about this possibility. um, you know, the, the context is important to context is that these non republic, despite the appearance of being very strong and very stable from the outside, has lots of problems. both at home, but also in terms of foreign policy. and you know, of, most importantly, iran is going to have double elections in march of for the parliament, but also the assembly of experts was going to select the next to bring leaders. so

there is a lot of complications about those 2, but also there was a resume realization about the lack of social mobilization and photo turn out. and the reputation of historically, both the, you know, low virtual turnouts this time around as well. so this uh, you know, the subtract, whoever might be the focus, right, to really whatever might be the path to try to, i think may be used by the iranian stage to further secure, it ties the domestic jarine up. also in you of the domestic clothes that i just explained against the backdrop of and still existing, very profound economic price. yeah. so you're saying you're saying that the iranian government might have something to gain that sounds like from this attack. so when you say inside job, you're implying that elements within the regime itself could have carried out such an attack. you know, because i mean the, you know, and then you know, you have to look at that a very, so really, you have to look at, at the, you know, you have to consider past experience. but those are times we have never known for

sure. it would have been the perfect trace. has there been multiple, a circle, tired of such hearts in the wrong over the last few years? many of which, you know, have been blamed on divers, many of which have been blamed on all of the other usual suspects. but also some of which turns out to be uh, you know, have the hands of the around in the state as well. so i think, i, well yeah, well the other guess the, because i can see that both of them have something to say about this document. and i will come to you in just a moment, but if i can get to mr. alton, meaning i know that you have said it's as unlikely that the wrong carried out this attack as israel. so what's your response to what you're hearing that i yes, i do buying the idea that it was in the rainy in the inside. don't they mean just the timing of beds and the number of people were killed and so it discriminates and uh and uh, in regards actually to retired to one of the guys,

references shooting down and like, i don't really know evenings intentionally did that. they did that, then they signed to colorado. like for me to present something to know. yeah. yeah. you know, being able to die. okay. um, so again i, again, i don't think you can say that the position yet the is bombing state down until either a statement comes out of the investigation happens. although it just seems that it has a whole lot software, but it seems much more like that. and then bring it inside job, sir, we understand that more. okay, mr. filed and that job, if i can come back, come back to you and look at the symbolism behind the attack itself. you know, what is the message behind attacking the tomb of a man who was a chief architect of the ronnie and policy across the region. you know, he was, he was the commander of the revolution regards. overseas codes force or the seeing phases in iraq and syria. and 11 on and yeah,

and then i mean to, to clarify my previous points. i'm not definitely suggesting that there was an inside job, but i'm just as you know, basing my argument on past experience, which i have of showing me very mixed picture about the wide range of possibilities behind the term, subtracts in iran, and currently the situation refer there is a much, much more dire. i explained briefly the domestic situation, but also regionally the, the stronger republic has been the interesting severe blows with the killing of the top r a g. c come entering syrian but also the kidding availability in the videos, routes. so i think it's at least a welcome, you know, a digression from jersey that a subject of talk has now happens when it comes to study money. i think there's a lot of myths about, you know, the status that it's, that he holds within your, on, in society. there is certainly a that there has been

a period in which many iranians believe that he's who was a national euro. but i think this kind of a big church is much more contested over the last few years in iran. also given a extreme uh, you know, wide golf that is now involved between the bulk of the wrong and society and the regime of the other. or i so as to whether yeah, and i know that you wanted to come in earlier when we were talking about, you know, mr for the initial had said that while he's not implying that yvonne elements within the volume regime itself could have carried out this attack the session the it might have something to gain from that it might be a welcome distraction, given the immense pressure as it's on the internally and of, of, from international groups as well. a while i definitely with that for you, because i think yvonne at this point more than have a needs, it's deterrence,

visa v israel and the united states. given this condition in the region, i can't do what mr. fentler's on the job is describing to say, well, securitized internal because the radians, i mean there's not a public's main legacy, is that it kept iran. it's table in a region into a model. now a security bridge, a bridge on, on this scale, is a blow to that narrative. how can that be the case? i think that's a one. i mean, this non co public has a lot to lose more than it can gain from such an incident. so i think that's uh, i mean, if they went in a position usually talks about a such incidents being internal jobs. well, the, the only incident is the, the ad saying that they were late to clear just the declared responsibility. and that was an incident. now this can to be an incident, it's a bomb implanted,

you know, in the crowd that were commemorating the bullets force assassinated. very, you know, celebrated hero and a right nation. and people were, were going there to, to take part in that. and these people are the social base health is not a good public. your sonic republic. uh, i mean the for the sake of the argument of it based on the public, even if it does so, which i didn't see any evidence in that it wouldn't hit its own base. all right. what about other groups, mr. alton? they went just sorry i missed a for the one and i shall i can see you wanting to come in here. yeah, i think, i mean, 1st of all, to clarify the record about the r g c. shooting down the ukraine in 5 to judge, according to canadian court's rulings. you know, this was probably in the tensional attack, so there is, in fact, a long history. i mean, instead of my rec site mention to the very beginning of the revolution and also you

know, later on. so just as not so, you know, as i'm trying to see here. um, so uh, just to uh and, and says in terms of to turns yes to turns is important, but also what is part of the around and national security doctrine somehow also the some republics security doctrine is the need for crises. you know, it crises can also be very useful and can be instrumental lies by the states for regional stability purposes. so, do this context also, maybe, right. okay. mr. alton, maybe let me bring you in here. there's some disagreements because the attack was on some southern montes around has to let me bring you in here because there's a difference of views on his, on his legacy. mr. federal image out saying that, you know, he's, he's not the, he wrote that he was painted to be, what do you make of that? and the groups, again,

the groups that would be interested in carrying out in the tax on the 4th anniversary of his assassination. a yes, and we going to do a positive and so they might need like a z a b, it really depends who you ask him to read it. so i mean, the, the people say in the direct passage log close, the randi z m is the sky row is important in the fight against the is bonding stage and also fairly raining and elements and, and syria as well. uh, being very high in a very proud to resolve these events. that's huge encounters with operations. the other end of the syrian does it all in alaska, for example, but then there are others, do see, and for most of jerry, i was the persecutor of sidney. isn't responsible for mass giving of sydney's whether it's senior year or whether in iraq and or, and also later as in boy,

the runs governments. and so there are certainly other groups that say, for example, play out through narratives to balance or so the persecution near on the light to some models. and also it isn't moving based in syria or of uranian and assuming textiles as well. come to syria, enjoying units agency, then put out a statement about this use of the sent me using the ryan so they could also have an interest in doing some kind of like inside that inside the the don't john cost them so they might okay. um, but no, i'm just interested in this scale. i don't think all right, we don't have very long left in the program. so i'd like to ask them each of you, final questions to ask me to the on do you think, how much has this attack increase the chance of a wider escalation of violence in the region? would you say, i think it comes in the time of the original escalation already,

and that's what top point is the finger at israel, and it's possible by kind of such an incident. so as i said to him, if it's or miss durham innocent of what causes us to do, but the possibility of being back if it being backed or another group being backed by israel, is still there. and that will open the door wide to original escalation. and because if yvonne doesn't respond, it's quite ability and it's a deterrence will be at stake. yeah. and if it does, if it responds and i think, well, if it comes to a conclusion that is rarely is behind it, then we'll see a more escalation in the region. i think this will be a regional, a response, and these are, these will try to attract the united states and picture day goes to ron or possibly other countries to try to put more pressure on the right. yeah. mr. for the image. i do think that as well as trying to drive the united states into a why,

to regional conflict with iran, it is what it is trying to get seems to be united states into i think, i mean on your 1st question, despite the fact that you have on claims that there was a link between the to the come on explosions and the world as a that it is basically an act of desperation. i'm tired on carried out by using the united states because of the complications of the work. i think that those are 2 distinct reading us here. you're on uh is uh, not suicidal. it's not assigned to regime and also the kind of hard revenge that iran had promised after the us drawing killing. it was sending money, never materialized. so the same caution can be observed within the world garza so neither your husband are interested in a great wordpress uh user and for the united states. my jeopardize rekeying. so and very quickly, mr. alton, they, me,

how do you see this incident playing out over the next days and weeks? it really depends on who it really depends on whom the already installed responsible. they old is honest, a responsible and sometimes they explains it or whatever. then i think then that doesn't change the wind to read. don't take the attention escalation of the guards of war, but it's a separate dynamic. but then if they blame is renelle, i expect some kind of maybe calibrated response of unnecessary a attempt to do on out to roll with israel and provoke a y divisional, which will be why we're all looking at that around noon investigation into what happens so closely or ice, that is a half an hour with an impact on at least i thought i measured in berlin and i mentioned i was out the mimi in bethlehem. thank you very much and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website onto 0 dot com. and for further discussion,

do go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x a handle as at age and 5 story for me, elizabeth put on him and the entire team here. bye for now. the what constitutes exempt. so we generally talk, you will see that i want you to start with just the fence right as to what happened as independent. we want these, we want the education. my wants to be the we don't have lead them in different countries policy and it's meant to get 50 percent representation and accountability and benefit knowing that was and services, this placement and you're saying you don't have your reports for that. i should

just trust the community, often aside from the cold that used to produce outstanding gentleness and elders. the integrity in the pursuit of hard hitting the entities as a un ambassador position given to you by or does have both. you've described that is better than is better than any thoughts provided. hang on my question to you all . the good cooks, i think, is the most difficult press than a part to answer facing realities. usb 2. in the security council, this is a may just something go because if it access to, if he of the story on told to how does era exploring diverse culture exciting political discourse, exposing societies, doctor award winning intense investigation the

get compelling insights into humanity. holden, unto stories from asia, or in the pacific $1.00, oh $1.00 east on out to 0. in on the federal tax upfront takes on the biggest penny zip code to what is happening now. it is a complex 3 question. question of 5 upfront on how to 0. the israel bombard central and southern guys are hitting houses, apartment blocks and camps more than 22400 contest and ends up being killed. says october, the 2nd the i don't know about this and this is obviously a life from doha. also coming up is there is defense minister lays out his proposal

for the future of gaza. so hoping to get help from the u. s. and some arab states plus i've seen more.