a settled tax upfront takes on the big issue. that is the context to what is happening now. it says a question about 5 unflinching questions. rigorous the bank that he added to 2 days that another cleansing has taken place. augusta. nothing goes into gauze or without us of permission. nothing leaves god without the girl's permission. allow me to push back for a moment, demanding a ceasefire, demanding an end to the root causes of all of this violence upfront without the yvonne specimens retaliation. octave tube last came over 18 people during commemorations for an assassination general, is set to be the worst attack since the 1979 revolution. so how will pet envoy yet, and is there a risk of escalation in the region? this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm elizabeth put on him. it is one of the worst attacks to hit around and decades. more than a 2 people were killed in the se, in city of catamount. on wednesday, when 2 explosives went off, joined a crowd of procession. the timing of the attack is significant that happened during the so many mock in full years since the us assassinated one of yvonne's top generals costs. and so the money the attack is adding yes, another layer of tension in the region. this israel's one gaza, this week's assassination of i'm off come on to 11 on and now this attack in iran. so is there a connection? and will these suspicions have different governments and on goods escalate? the violence? we'll get to those questions in a moment, but 1st this report from katya lopez hold a young of the 2 bombs exploded during the crowded

procession, marking for years since the us assassination of a runs top military commander costs. and so the money who up until his stuff was among the most powerful men in advance, sulu money letter rance revolutionary guards, crude force, which handles overseas operations, including providing weapons, money, and logistical support to own groups in the region, including husband law and tomas. it ran immediately blamed israel for the attack by one design is raising. without a doubt, you will pay the price to this crime. these crimes have committed you will deeply regret the us state department denies the accusations and points to a lack of evidence. the united states was not involved in any way. and any suggestion to the contrary is ridiculous. and number 2,

we have no reason to believe that israel was involved in this explosion in, in recent years on groups including i still have carried out a tax against civilians and security forces in around in 201712 people were killed when i saw a targeted around parliament building and the 2 of the republics, a revolutionary founder that the attack comes at a time of high tensions in the region. israel has not lit up and it's we're ongoing . and 11 on capital. the 2nd most powerful commander of how mosque was assassinated on tuesday, and then the parents is really strikes. what it did here was the rest of the assassination of one of the masses, top leaders in lebanon, is you have to know the fact that could indeed escalate the conflicting cause that's got it. and now this latest attack and a ran risk escalating an already fragile situation in the region. that's been on

edge for months, katia a little bit. so again, i'll do 0 for insights toward the spring in august and paired on is how soon. ok, madame professor of literally studies at the university of fed on and then in ali for the national and founder and director of the center for middle east and global order. and in bethlehem, i'm on shy with alto, many research fellows of the middle east forum of special expertise on i so very well welcome to all of you, mr. via and from what we know about this attack sofa who operates in this 9 to 2 bombings in quick succession targeting civilians. and now there hasn't been any office of talk on this or any official announcement. obviously there is investigation ongoing to figure out who and how it was

pulled off. i'm but, but so far we don't have any official announcement on the issue. but of course, yvonne's original policy and poster has put it in recent decades at loggerheads with the 2 prime suspects in the eyes of the way the ends of those are isis. and it says to organizations and these right, these under back, cuz these are the 2 prime suspects, especially when it went in analysis coming out in different outlets. and i think because these are the 2 parties, but have, it seems inherent interest at this point to hit yvonne with and its internal security. they are being uh, you know, uh, taken as the most probable, uh, you know, a parties that have all this off. okay. miss the phone and as uh,

we are hearing from yvonne in lead is they're not saying exactly who they think it is, but they have said things like the head of the revolution regards. code fulls has said that they blamed design is treasury mendez, ally the united states that they're looking to was israel and the united states. but if we look at again at how this attack has been carried out, it doesn't carry the whole marks of past previous attacks. by israel does it? that's correct, actually because i mean, i think 1st of all, we should be extremely cautious about the kind of official narrative that we're hearing from do something with public and also state media. and it runs were a blaming the usual suspects. um, you know, ease rather than most of the united states by the way. but if you look at the past is rarely a, you know, a tax in iran. they were very clearly targeting um the receipt and its the

infrastructure fee to military or nuclear. and uh plus um there is also um, you know, the realization in these relative there was a white gulf between states assigned to new rocks. and i think there was no appetites to execute instructional edition against civilian sooner on that may lead . so to get around your society training against you as well. so i think, you know, the probably ability that ease road was behind this attack is quite low. yeah. and mister, ultimately, i know that you also saying that the probability of israel carrying out this attack is low again, when you look at where the bottoms will place from what we know so far about where the bonds were placed. not near the ceremony itself, that was we believe attended by senior regime officials. but you know, where ordinary people who do support the regime, but or do we pay for what, what kind of can we supplies from this that the target, you know,

wasn't senior ronnie and regime officials, a, b, c, d. i couldn't speculate on to precise target, but in general, from the if you take from united states standpoint, then any the uranium civilian civilian doesn't matter was the government don't know any. we're used to being who is a, c i o c pay is considered and what they call a rock dice. and an app is saved from his mom in the fall would be be talking to and the groups i as in this match is with positive types. they tardy, doubting you wrong. um, for instance, uh, in the last one the claim died. steve was in october of 2022, and that was the targeting senior officials. those already are the renting government on times in the way it was just a and it's a inflicting mass casualties. among ordinary people are just 2 people being c on.

this is in the city of c rice and uh, one thing i actually would add is that um we con, well do with waiting for some kind of statement to the is the assignments. they just get there to say anything about this. yeah, it is. you all the next set on i so i, i'm sorry to interrupt, but given you are an expert on iso, doesn't the group usually take responsibility pretty quickly when it does carry on to tax? well, this is what i was going to say about this. now i see that they don't always claim every time they do around the well. and that could be for a variety of reasons, because i actually want to point out that there was another type in your eyes as well in august of last year. and the radio is arrested. the operative and sentenced them to uh, i think center this is desiree. call then identifying them as

a member of the islamic stage. it was originally from subject to start. but these obviously, i never claim that it's hard. i mean, it could be the designing stage. did the attack and then dozens claimants because it was to say, leaved out and have the wrong point being, is there other ideas and contributing to this uh, why to said the instability. i also basically the explore or i must ask for the tensions, especially incredibly high in the region and iran has vowed to retaliate, but they'll have to, it's incredibly important at this stage to find who's responsible, isn't it just how difficult is it to find to get to the bottom of such an attack, it's very hard and i think they are now in the they are trying their best to find out to find who did it, and then to link it to uh, basically who supported it from abroad. i mean,

depending on the uh who is has supported of this farm and i think uh, yvonne is responsible if its ices, i think uh, yvonne will go after its leadership in different places in the region of honest on iraq, syria and the syrian, the rocky border uh that i think uh uh, has been the case previously and will be the case moving forward. but if its israel and i here just a bit, i don't completely rule out these really possibility here because 11 on and the 8 is one of the many speaks about this in his book. these really is a supported part, isn't that committed such crimes within lebanon? so you couldn't really rule it out. so i agree. it's a no possibility because the attack seems to be very much administered into what isis usually has been doing and recent years. but you can throw that out as well,

that these are the possibilities. so if it's a israel, i think that's another issue. they writing a response should be calibrated in a way to deter not only israel, but it's back or the main, a fish, anyone's strategic. and you know, conduct and the region that has the united states to deter both and, and that's, i think, is a very complicated and a very sophisticated, a good thing to pull off. because what's at stake is not totally yvonne's internal stability in that case. and just the ones determinants and determining simple terms is basically uh, you know, backend what and the conditional threats by a power projection, yvonne doesn't respond that projection and that conditional threat collapse on outgo. yvonne's determinants will collapse. ok, i think the way it is we'll,

we'll find it hard not to respond in one way or another to these here. absolutely missed the phone and measure as you touch the on. you know, some of the problems between the iranian state and society sizes from, i mean there are various groups and yvonne itself is the fight is from below just on there are the, you know, ethnic arab separate shows. they have stage attacks in iran in the pos would they have an interest due to carrying out such an attack? again, based on past experience, not telling me over the last few years, but over the last 4 decades. i think we have to be extremely cautious about, you know, about naming all those possible attempted traitors. i mean, it could well be that the groups that have been mentioned so far. i've been the try to of this attack with also given past experience could well be that is it, it isn't kind of inside job because there is

a long history of structure inside jobs from the very start of the it's not mix resolution to just a few years ago, remember the r g c a shooting down in the ukraine in a passenger judge and saying that actually it was not to the r g c. so there was a long history. and i think that in all of that, the context is much more important here. the 1st one, initial ed, when you say an inside job, can you explain exactly what you mean the for? sure. so i think, i mean, i, you know, i mean, you should talk about this possibility. um, you know, the, the context is important to context is that these non republic, despite the appearance of being very strong and various paper from the outside, has lots of problems. both at home, but also in terms of foreign policy. and you know, most importantly, iran is going to have double elections in march of for the parliament,

but also the assembly of experts who's going to select the next supreme leader. so there is a lot of complications about those 2, but also there was a resume realization about the lack of social mobilization and photo turn out. and the reputation of historically, both the, you know, low virtual turnouts this time around as well. so this, you know, the subtract, whoever might be the focus, right, to really, whatever might be the tray to, i think may be used by the iranian states to further secure it ties the domestic jarine up. oh, so and you of the domestic was that i just explained against the backdrop of and still existing, very profound economic price. yeah. so you're saying you're saying that the iranian government might have something to gain, it sounds like from this attack. so when you say inside job, you're implying that elements within the regime itself could have carried out such an attack. you know, because i mean the, you know, and then you know, you have to look at that. you're very so really you have to look at at, uh,

you know, you have to consider past experience, but those are times we have never known for sure. it would have been the perfect trace. has there been multiple, a circle, tired of such hearts in around, over the last few years? many of which, you know, have been blamed on divers um, many of which have been blamed on the other usual suspects, but also some of which turns out to be, you know, have the hands of the around in the state as well. so i think i well yeah, i was the other guess. so yeah, because i can see that both of them have something to say about this document and i will come to you in just a moment. but if i can get to mr. alton me, i know that you have said it's as unlikely that the wrong carried out this attack as israel. so what's your response to what you're hearing that i yes, i do buying the idea that it was in the rainy in the inside. don't they mean just the timing of beds and the number of people were killed and so it discriminates and uh and uh, in regards to retired to one of the guys references shooting down and like,

i don't really know evenings intentionally did that. they did that, then they signed to colorado is likely to it was interesting to know that. yeah, yeah, you don't think of it. okay. um, so again i again, i don't think you can say that the position yet the is bombing state did. and so i, the receiving comes our, the investigation happens, although it just seems that it has a whole lot of software, but it seems much more like that and then bring it inside jobs. so young steps to that point. okay, mr. filed in that job. if i can come back, come back to you and look at the symbolism behind the attack itself. you know, what is the message behind attacking the tomb of a man? who was a chief architect of ronnie and policy across the region? you know, he was, he was the commander of the revolution regards overseas codes force or the seeing

phases in iraq and syria and 11 on and yeah, and then i mean to, to clarify my previous points. i'm not definitely suggesting that there was an inside job, but i'm just as you know, basing my argument on past experience, which i have of showing me very mixed picture about the wide range of possibilities behind the term, subtracts in iran, and currently the situation refer there is a much, much more dire. i explained briefly the domestic situation, but also regionally the, the stronger republic has been the interesting severe blows. with the killing of the top r a g. c come entering the series but also the kidding availability in the biggest routes. so i think it's at least a welcome, you know, a digression from the regime that a subject attack has now happened when it comes to study money. i think there's a lot of myths about, you know, the status that it's jack chief,

thoughts within your honor society. there is certainly a that there has been a period in which many iranians believe that he's was a national euro. but i think this kind of a big church is much more contested over the last few years in iran. also given a extreme uh, you know, wide golf that is now involved between the bulk of your running society and the regime of the other. or i to as to whether yeah, and i know that you wanted to come in earlier when we were talking about, you know, mr. settled and they just said that while he's not implying that yvonne elements within the volume regime itself could have carried out this attack, the session, the it might have something to gain from that it might be a welcome distraction, given the immense pressure as it's on the internally and of, of, from international groups as well a while, i definitely with that to you because i think yvonne at this point more than have

a needs its deterrence, fees of israel and the united states, given this condition in the region. i can't do what mr. fentler's on his job is describing to say, well, securitized internal, because the way he is, i mean there's not a public's main legacy, is that it kept iran. it's table in a region into a model. now a security bridge, a bridge on, on this scale, is a blow to that narrative. how can that be the case? i think that's a one. i mean, this non co public has a lot to lose more than it can gain from such an incident. so i think that's uh, i mean, if they went in a position usually talks about a such incidents being internal jobs. well, the, the only incident is the, the ad saying that they were late to clear list declared responsibility. and that

was an incident. now this can to be an incident, it's a bomb implanted, you know, in the crowd that were commemorating the bullets force assassinated. very, you know, celebrated hero and a right nation. and people were in, were going there to, to take part in that. and these people are the social base host is not a good public. your sonic republic. uh, i mean the for the sake of the argument of it based on the public, even if it does so, which i didn't see any evidence in that it wouldn't hit its own base. all right. what about other groups, mr. alton? they went just sorry i missed a for the one initial i can see you wanting to come in here. yeah, i think, i mean, 1st of all, to clarify the record about the r g c. shooting down to the ukranian fighter judge, according to canadian court rulings, you know, this was probably and then that tensional attack. so there is, in fact, a long history. i mean, instead of my reg site mentions at the very beginning of the revolution and also,

you know, later on. so just as not so you know, um there's some fantasy here. um, so uh, just to uh and says in terms of to turns yes. uh, the trends is important, but also what is part of the iranian natural security doctrine somehow, also the some republics security doctrine is the need for crises. you know, it crises can also be a very useful and can be instrumental lies by the states for origin, stability purposes. so do this contracts also maybe, right. okay. mr. alton, maybe let me bring you in here. there's some disagreements because the attack was on cause some sort of mine is around, has to let me bring you in here because there's a difference of views on his, on his legacy. mr. federal emission saying that, you know, he's, he's not the, he wrote that he was painted to be, what do you make of that?

and the groups again, the groups that would be interested in carrying out in the tack on the 4th anniversary of his assassination. a yes, and we going to do a positive and so they might even legacy a be, it really depends who you ask him to read it. so i mean the, the people say in the direct passage log close. the randi c. m is this 0 who is important in the fight against the is bonding stage and also fairly raining and elements and, and syria as well. uh, being very high in a very proud to resolve these events. that's huge encounters with an operations. the other end of the syrian does it all in alaska, for example, but then there are others. do see in for most of jerry, i was the persecutor of sidney. isn't responsible for mass giving of sydney's whether it's senior year or whether in iraq and or, and also later as in boy,

the runs governments. and so there are certainly other groups that say, for example, play out through narratives to balance or so the persecution near on the light to some models and also uh, it isn't moving based in syria or of uranian and assuming textiles as well. come to syria, enjoying the insurgency, then put out a statement about this use of the sent me using the ryan. so they could also have an interest in doing some kind of like inside that inside the, the don't down costs. and so they might okay. um, but no, i'm just interested in this scale. i don't think all right, we don't have very long left in the program. so i'd like to ask them each of you, final questions to ask me to the on do you think, how much has this attack increase the chance of a wider escalation of violence in the region? would you say, i think it comes in the time of the original escalation already,

and that's what the top point is, the finger at israel, and it's possible by kenneth such an incident. so as i said to him, if it's for miss durham innocent of what causes us to do, but the possibility of being back if it being backed or another group being backed by israel, is still there. and that will open the door wide to original escalation. and because if yvonne doesn't respond, it's quite ability and it's a deterrence will be at stake. yeah. and if it does, if it responds and i think, well, if it comes to a conclusion that is rarely is behind it, then we'll see a more escalation in the region. i think this will be a regional, a response, and these are, these will try to attract the united states and picture that goes to ron or possibly other countries to try to put more pressure on the right. yeah. mr. for the image. i do think that as well as trying to drive the united states into

a wide, a regional conflict with iran, it is what it is trying to get seems to be united states into i think, i mean, um on your 1st question. um, despite the fact that chevron claims that there was a link between the to the come on explosions and uh, the one on us uh that it is basically an act of desperation. charter. dont tear it down. but you certainly have the united states because of the complications of the work. um, i think that those are 2 distinct readers here. um your on uh is uh, not suicidal. its not a so sondra regime and also to kind of find revenge that he won't have promised after the us drawing, killing upsetting money, never materialized. so the same caution can be observed within the world garza so neither you're wrong or is what are interested in a great wordpress uh user. and for the united states, my jeopardize rekey and very quickly, mr. alton, they, me,

how do you see this incident playing out over the next days and weeks? it really depends on who it really depends on who you already installed. responsible day old is honest, a responsible and times that explains it or whatever. then i think then that doesn't change the wind to read. don't take the attention. escalation of the guy is the war, but it's a separate dynamic. but then if they blame is right now, i expect some kind of maybe calibrated response of unnecessary a attempt to do on out to will with israel and provoke a y divisional, which will be why we're all looking at that around an investigation into what happens. so closely or ice that is a half an hour with an impact on at least i thought i measured in berlin and i mentioned i was out to me in bethlehem. thank you very much and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again. any time by visiting our website, which is 0 dot com and for further discussion,

do go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x a handle as at age and 5 story for me, elizabeth put on him and the entire team here. bye for now. the what constitutes exempt. so we just talked, you were saying, i want you to start with just the fence runs through what happened is independent. we won't be, we want the education my wants to freedom. we don't have to lead them in different countries policy and it's going to get 50 percent representation and accountability and benefit knowing that was and services this placement and you're

saying you don't have your reports with it. i should just trust the community. austin is 5 times the crew that used to produce outstanding gentleness, and i'll just see her integrity in the pursuit of truth. born and raised in garza know, have married the palestinian from the occupied westbank both her out of her time and you need is waiting me to 3 permits to visit one another. the new headquarters, the homes along this traditional christmas carols in the lutheran church in bethlehem. but her sister jean was buried under the russell the 1st showing was to degree both of those immediately. not as viewed as they said that i want to know immediately. i don't accept my sense to celebrate christmas while my family are facing him on and every year at victory is let's up to will come pick them

into his room over the world. this year. the lights haven't been turned on. as you can see, the major square is empty and the movie does that, the frustration and sadness, but many here say they refuse to give up on ho. there are some of the media stories, a critical look at the global news media on how to 0 government shut off access to social media, the, [000:00:00;00] the hello, this is the news hour on out to 0 for the back to go live in doha, coming up in the next 60 minutes. these really ami from suffix attacks on southern

israel and central gaza within 22600 people have been killed since the will be guy . has winters that state and many palestinians in gaza is jabante. a refugee camp