rivers, now suddenly we have been telling the authorities for years so that they need to build proper burns. if they do that, then we wouldn't have this recurring problem. concern is growing up on communities living here near the banks of 2 rivers. that the worse is you have to come and more bad weather is forecast for next week. said their elders. eda, north 11 on the latest volcanic eruption and the splendid kind of creating the vic has finally stopped by the towns residents were unable to attend because of continuing seismic activity. so you've got to go reports from going to make the dying embers of the over option in green, the vic. but the state of emergency here is fall from over. trim is a still being south. and the new fisher that runs through the eastern part of town has widened. even though molten lava can barely be seen on the surface, the towns of residents are still unable to return home. and to send a new spot in

a flood. as soon as they heard the sirens go off on sunday night, the 2nd time in 2 months. but i know that, i mean some people are having literally breakdown because this, they have since been staying at his parents home in the capital. they know they may never be able to return back to, going to make so many people have already said that they don't want to return back to the town. then for me it's very difficult to move there. you know, because the community itself is so damaged, living in an area of high seismic activity will always carry its risks. but the damage done by this last or option has left many, hey, wondering where exactly is the safest place to live in this part of the country also november's erupt sion menu a hopeful that new morality would return. that hope ended on sunday, when the love of flowed into the town itself, that something could go back home. so maybe some people only have a few months left and now they need to make big decisions about their future and

where, where they want to live. recovery could take years while the maxima pressure may decrease and shift further out. there was little guarantee that little fishes weren't suddenly up here. changing the landscape and the communities themselves. sonya guy, ego, i'll do 0. north of going to big. a. likes blows in the, at a 5 works factory and thailand has code least 23 people. the bloss happened, and so fund bori province in a town about a 120 kilometers, lots of phone calls. these are like pitches from this. the c, please say they found no survivors. the prime minister's office is ordered an investigation for that. so for me, the bulk of robot this and we'll be here with more news in 30 minutes time. stay with us here on just the the staging type is being played in cats are for

a rock or 3rd time. 24 teams are competing for the trophy. there can only be 4. can you to run across the action from out of the tournament? phasing half on the hello i. my name's sorry. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business economics. this week 2024 will be the get of elections around 2000000000 versus will be heading to the polls to pick the governments this. yeah. what will this mean so many struggling with the cost of living crisis inflation and high interest rate. so housing millions, lot more can central banks do and will we see the end to high rates,

or is this the new normal plus disruptions and the red st caused by iran back to the rebels has seen the price of sending goods around the world. spike winds out as a threat to the global economy. the 2024 is probably going to be a big if elections around hall for, for wells population will be heading to the polls. no. continent is exempts from lots expect it to be a. yeah. that could shape the future well order. so what does this year have in store for the global economy under the umbrella? so much potential political change will also be looking at the impact, the rising cost of shipping because of tensions in the red sea. albrighton gulf or begins are coverage. that is, of course, at least 64 countries will be choosing the latest and governments in 2024 more than

2000000000 people are eligible to vote in what's being billed as a biggest yet and global election history. bank the dash for 10 prime minister shake has e now for a 5th time this month in the fest of the estimates of the ation nations holding elections into the pakistan, indonesia street lancaster and india. one of them is basically contested, will be in taiwan. the outcome is likely to have implications for best for us on china as they compete for influence in the region. us satellite tie one considers itself independent, but beijing says through all of this part of its territory to be taken by force if necessary. elections for members of the european parliament to take place in june with far right parties gaining popularity. more than 400000000 virtues are eligible to elect 720 m e p's across 27 countries. since the current 19

pandemic and the war and ukraine, the european union has struggled to bring rising food and energy prices under control and to boost sluggish economic growth. inflation in the blocks largest economy, germany rise at the fastest right in the last 3 months of 2023 dampening expectations that view a pm central bank will cut interest rates soon. a, the case will be passed towards the end of this year. 2024 because uh the easy b as total note on the, on the line. your patience are all tied headlines. nation knows where that will stand in 6 or 9 months because you don't know where the price is, where the going. and that's, i would be very cautious to pay, take to raise costs and the, well, it's not just economy us. president joe biden is hoping to secure a 2nd time in elections in november. his republican wife was donald trump,

is also coming to attend to the white house event such as the outcomes of was in gauze. and when the crane along with possible political transitions will determine economic trends. and many tax pass may be hoping for a few political sweetness before deciding the next government barbara and good for counting the cost. what we're doing now by john harrison these managing direct at global data ts loan bottom alongside them. is brendan a cool, nice professor of us politics and foreign relations at the university of sydney? welcome to the sharp i've here, john. let's start with a brown. broad outlook for the. yeah, according to the well defined, it's high borrowing costs and political uncertainty around the world that is likely to dominate. do you agree? yes, i mean, these are fairly important factors and markets of growth. financial markets have been very follow tile at the start of a year, but that doesn't really detract from our overall micro outlook,

which is one of the majority slow a g d p growth um, gradual pc inflation, which equals to be good for consumers and ultimately lower interest rates and so so that side of things should to should improve. and there are risks the costs. inflation could have a resurgence in shipping costs, for example, are in focus at the moment. oil prices, it could also re much as a threat about. but overall, we think that with us, the interest rates, sorry us inflation, quite close to 3 percent, but the effect will be more biased towards costing rates, rather than allowing the economy to slip into recession in europe, perhaps if the possibility of right cups could be delayed they're all vocation members of the c b that could push back if they started as a slight uptake in inflation. and in china we see the downside risks to,

to growth. that because of the unpredictable nature of a policy making and also the property sector crisis. and box it, but overall it's a picture slide equal slipped slice level, gross less inflation and ultimately lower interest rates. i'm doing. what about towards the end of the? do you see a slightly better picture by then? yes, i mean the economies you want frequencies low interest traits if they do stop in q 2, as we expect then bias on which the end of the year. and you know the column, it should be picking up a mock. it should be doing much better as a result of that. but of course, you know, we do have the elections, particularly in the, in the us. and so there is a risk of g, a political tension, but from a purely economic perspective, the feed grew from of, of lower interest rates. and lower prices should be, should be good for consumers and good for economic growth. this a good point to tend to brandon as we've been discussing, as john has been saying

a big year elections this year. let's start with the west, which ones are you watching closely? well, the us selection is where i have my expertise, and i suppose many people follow. it's not just as a political science is or academics, but it almost is kind of sports. when donald trump is involved, it's become popular culture that the us has become in some way. ready as it's seen as a bit of a political circus, hey, i the last decade and particularly since the rise of donald trump, psych many people economically i suppose politically socially. ready be asking, ken trump the re elected as you as president. that would have seemed unlikely i think when it got to fated in 2020. but the possibility is real, somebody's doing quite well in national polls. it's always crucial where you can win the kate states in the united states, and he's, he's a bit behind board and then some of those key states, but improving over time and showing that he is

a serious threat to dr. barton to invite and has a weakness on some economic indicators. inflation has been pretty high during his presidency, getting up to 9 percent in 2022. so find this vulnerable simulators probably likely to be an election in the united kingdom light this year. that seems on the cod side to major. so the bank landscape, how is with collections that i think move all to all in the united states, that most people would say very likely labor victory in the united kingdom with the us selection, i think for electronics, but the mind would largely see it as a toss up, and the possibility of trouble or training which is extraordinary is, is very much likely. it will, we will talk a bit further about the us selections. but i do want to ask you about the elections and the imagining markets is, is there any particular country that is standing out for you, perhaps taiwan? yeah, that's what i want election is, is crucial. i mean, it did look for

a time that would be 3 candidates now it's the kind of seemingly the whole battle between 2 magic bodies. um, so i think there would be a sense of bided bread if there was more talk of independence, which seems less likely in the selection of the compromise position. seems to be the more dominant and popular position side that election ways crucial in taiwan and how china reacts to the chinese elections. this is always a crucial. so jared, political hop point to keep, keep affected. so what about you, john? from the emerging markets, wanna invest as paying attention to. yeah, i mean in terms of collections of assuming, timeline like i can make a few comments on that to mean, you know, we do expect the ruling a big company, d p, p to, to get in the presidency. but they lose control of a parliament. so that may mean that the posting legislation is perhaps quite difficult,

and this will not be something that will be approved of by it's by china. and in terms of the ttp candidates, it's likely to be an increase in the intentions. but this will be perhaps more of the same of what we've seen so far in incursions in taiwan save space and perhaps some, some trade terrace and so on. but they will also be carrots, if you'd like to go along with that in, in terms of perhaps we'd like sation of co rules on, on travel and i'm watching and so on. but as role someone search and see and, and that for some risk of tensions and some risk of all the tennessee and financial markets as a result. i mean, of course there are many other elections to keep an eye on the most important ones . perhaps a india so so mexico. busy and to that so we can discuss it. turning back to the us economy brendan, so we have seen some improvement in the us economy in recent months. how much is that gonna play into how voters decide on who they're going to vote for?

i mean, you would have thought it was remarkable the paper who was convinced of who though going to vote for at this point the people were out there thinking, i'm not sure if i and i support trump or not. but there are, i think new writers always coming in there are, but as you don't pay much attention to the news of politics, who are open to persuasion that the last minute or even to turn up to vice. and i think those people often bought, you know, with their economic standing and position and security had probably felt a pretty tough during the bible presidency because inflation rights lead to low income people having to pay more for groceries more for petrol. the possibility of wanting to take out a light and get into the housing market. it's been difficult. so there are things that lead people to be critical, of the kind of button administration and then a 2 party system. you get people once that critical thinking, well the other side might be a better choice even if the other side, as being told is the mice that have, you know, responsible politicians of

a generation or even an american bit straight from kind of model memory thing donald trump say that kind of swing visor which is pretty small, a small sliver of the american population. i mean, most people are kind of calcified as republicans or democrats. but that swing by could tip the election towards trump and there are a lot of people in america who find it themselves. greg module. ready so the file placed economically, it's a tough society living, not much of a safety net in terms of welfare. so that appeal that things were better on the trump, which there's many arguments to make against the attic. and oh, it's like the meaning arguments to make the president so the government applies to global economic sort of domestic economics. but trump, well, i think because highly critical of brought by and as an economic manager and for some of the things that are low information vices, that's a potentially probably message john from

a market point severe. who is the better president? isn't promised. oh, is that president boston? i mean, i think in terms of predictable policy and follow trial relations with, with china, which obviously key for the global economy and also relations with europe as well. and then then then fight in would be back to a financial market. it's just purely because of, of a more predictable and more amenable to, to friendly relations with that, you know, with the rest of the world. okay. it was really good to get people perspective. unfortunately, we are out of time. thank you to john harrison, managing director at global data to yes. longmont and brendan aqona, professor of us politics and for relations at the university of sydney. thank you. by the, the will in gauze that has led to the death of more than 23000 palestinians. tensions on now threatening to spill over into the wider region rainy and back to

see rebels based in yemen. have been attacking shipping vessels in the gulf. but they say have links to israel, the price of sending goods around the world has that risen significantly over the past 6 weeks because of these disruptions i'm, they off is that fragile supply chains hit hard by the case of 19 pandemic may once again be threatened and push up consumer prices just as inflation is coming down to . well, the red sea is one of the wells most important shipping routes for oil and gas between asia and europe. in the south, the narrow bob and dab straight between africa on the radian peninsula, connects the red sea with a gulf of 8 and 12 percent of the wells trade. a 10 percent global oil carried by ships goes through that straight. now the suez canal connects the red sea with the mediterranean sea. it's the shortest shipping bridge between europe and asia. 15

percent of the wealth, maritime traffic pauses for the suez canal. now since november of last year, the herd fees have targeted vessels near bob and forcing may just shipping and oil companies to suspend operations through the red sea. so rerouted vessels will have to make a longer journey all the way down the east coast of africa by the southern tip of the continent. okay, let's hope now to i'm at hello, he's an economic and political risk analyst and mean and direct to the global council. thank you so much for joining the program. what has the impact of the who, the attacks and the red sea since november had on shipping delays and at shipping costs will not be freight rates have gone on an insurance risk premiums. the companies on the right these vessels traveling into these risk and waters. those, those opinions have haven't gone up the popular shanghai to alter them route, which transits the by the month of and then on to the suez canal. the price of

freight rates there have gone up 100 percent 120 and 20 percent. so that will have cascading impact, so it will lead to some of the selection. the pressure is in the global economy just as inflation was, was cooling down um, overall annual. and just to be clear, when we're talking about the shipping containers, we're talking about them carrying everything from shoes to cop pods. so everything becomes more expensive, essentially. absolutely. at the good, the good news is that we haven't seen the massive lags and delays and the delivery of of these goods because supply chains have been rejected since the coven shock. many of the producers made the suppliers, the customers of the shipping lines, the retailers, they all realize that they can't continue to rely on the dominance model of, of, of before, which was just in time delivery to have very low stockpiles, very low inventory to keep costs down they realize that they need to build redundancies into supply chains and make things in different countries so that they can be resilience to actually and supply chains have been remarkably resilient to

this to the shock that we have just started seeing in station come down in many parts of the world, is this going to be a problem though? is this going to start hitting warehouse again? it with a log. it depends also on, on how acute and how long, how sustain these attacks keep happening as long as the warrant goes. what happens as long as israel continues to, to prosecute this company? i think the whole thing is we'll, we'll keep, we'll keep talking to these vessels, 10 percent of the wells, oil is full, so normally transported through these rates. so what kind of disruption are we talking to the oil and gas markets? well, we have to realize 1st that the who these aren't actually targeting fuel tankers as oil and gas has been largely kept aside from this confrontation. so most of the hoops, the fuel tank or so. so what was, was the fuel tankers actually are still continuing to transit this was cut out and you haven't seen oil and gas prices being that sensitive. so they went up a little bit, but they, they, they come, they come back down. more serious is the straight to formulas where most of the oil

coming from this region transits. and that hasn't really been effective and hasn't been targeted. so there is no no concern so far on energy security. i wonder if that could change because the united states has announced this multinational naval task force to patrol the southern parts of the red sea. are you concerned or invest is concerned? it's all about some kind of escalation going on because of that to the look. the scope for miscalculation in, in these waters is, is always going to be there. that risk is always going to be there. but if you look at the market fundamentals, oil, gas markets are very well supplied, right? supplied right now. the gas is supplied to europe is very healthy. the us producing energy at record levels. and europe today is importing more and more gas from, from the us. there will be added costs because the tankers, the, the freight rates also for, for vessels that are moving energy around the world are going up. so you saw

yesterday, the asian consumers, agent, buyers of, of oil are buying more from the region because the shorter distance than buying us crude, which with, which is much longer distance and will, will cost a lot more. so there are built in effects. do you think that the attacks in the red sea, by the who these will stop if the war and also stops? i do think so because it, but the wasn't going to stop anytime soon. that you know, the cabinets, the work cabinet and the security cabinet. and israel is talking about 12 months, maybe 24 months, might go to a lower intensity of the confrontation with, with, with some us. but there's no end of the sites. but i, i do think that they are timing, get such that it continues during, during the war we have, of course, the us elections coming up this year. and we, as you have been saying, there was concerned that the gospel will continue throughout the rest of 2024. how do you think that the us elections are going to play into the war and gaza american

voters to vote with their pocketbooks? they, they rarely vote on foreign policy issues that has been, you know, historically the trend, if you don't talk about the 2 candidates, you know, if, if it's a biden versus trump ticket, you know, that's very unpredictable. what trump will do. and he's, he's a personality driven and he and that's more risky. and that is more risky. but, uh, you know, mentioned yahoo and, and trump had a quite a solid relationship to negotiate that, that a brand records. and that trump got that recognition for it. that move the embassy and so forth. but he had a bad and the relationship with it. then you all, you didn't, you didn't, you know when the thing you all congratulate to by then and recognize the victory. that's something that slight the trump. so it's hard to predict how you will. that said, trump is about america 1st it's, it's, he's looking at, you know, selfishly, what does this we're doing to a narrow us self interest. he's made

a career that's on ukraine. he will end the support, the us will not cut the blank check to ukraine. so 11 maybe looks at is really a bit different to because of the, the iron clad link between those 2 countries. but i think he will have a more isolationist, a foreign policy in general. what about the trade implications on the trump, rather than biden global trade? that is. so trump, i think we'll continue this reassuring efforts that the biden is introduced. these 2 pieces of, of legislation, the official reduction act and the chips act. it's all part of an attempt to bring manufacturing back on in, on to american to be couple as much from china and to depend less on, on global suppliers at all. it goes back to the shock of, of, of kobe then, and the short digits of, of, of personal protective equipment and pharmaceuticals, and the realization that america couldn't continue to rely on global supply chain. so a trade will, will be effected. and that way, what about the uh,

i mean it was interesting on the trunk we so uh, very much a normalization of relations between our countries to israel and that came to stop very much because of the wind garza. if we go back to trump again, how do you see will that play? now, it is hard to see more countries normalizing with israel in this climate doesn't matter who's in the white house, the concessions. the palestinians who has been in the, in the 1st edition of the abram accords, were nothing but lip service and occupation continues to supplement building continues. so this, this grand bargain that it so between saudi arabia and israel brokered by the us is unlikely to happen any time soon. and the concessions to the palestinians and palestinian statehood will be right at the center of that. so i think normalization will be very difficult for any our public, an area or a government to pursue at this time. but we've been talking about elections earlier

in this program. we've talked about the us selection with you, their number of elections and imagine markets this year 2024 is one of the is where we'll see the most number of elections in the emerging markets of any particular countries that stand out for you is particularly risky one we should be paying attention more to. for example, we have south africa, we have india, we have taiwan, a number of emerging market elections. so type one, i don't follow the, the domestic to one is for me is most important one. because depending on the outcome and how pro china or an antique china, the, the winner is, it will depend, it will affect how the us looked at the taiwan straits. and as we know, taiwan is incredibly important for the global economy. because if it's world leading semi conductor industry, so that's one election that i would, i would look at very closely if, if, if the rate, if the system and china looked at taiwan and said that this is the year we're going to go for taiwan and re re united with mainland china because of the outcome of the

elections. and that would be the most serious one because we've, we saw that some forecasts are putting the economic shock as 10 trillion dollar economics on shock. if there's a war between taiwan and china. finally, you are a risk unless that is that is your job. that is your trade year in year. you're out . how would to compact 2024 from a risk point to say previous he is sure. well, i'd say so on, on the kinetic wars, you know, hot tours that were there were things you political risk, really spike. we have the word that's in the region that spilling over lebanon's, being drawn, drawn in health, these in iraq. we have the biggest conventional war in in mainland europe since world war 2. and that continues to redrawn with, with hundreds of thousands of casualties. and we have potentially what could be a catastrophic or for the global economy between taiwan and china, which some of the sourcing isn't too far into the, into the future. so i,

i'd say that's on one hand, dealt on the other hand, it's extreme weather events and the economic destruction that will happen with more unpredictable weather patterns and you have in the annual cycle, then you have threats to global food security and the migration effects that that would have so i think that's one really macro risk that i would be following closely. and then hello. really, really good to get your perspective economic and political risk unless i'm meaning direct to the global council. thank you so much. thank you. that is also the best way to get in touch with us on the x, i am not inside to use the hash tag h a c t c. when you do, we can drop us an e mail counseling. acosta analogy is there a don't net is address. i'm as notes movie, online algebra dot com slash b t. c. that will take you straight to our web page, which has individual reports, links and entwined episodes. we need to catch up on. okay,

that is at to best edition accounting. the cost on my name's site from the whole team. thanks for joining us. news on al jazeera coming up next the the, [000:00:00;00]

the, [000:00:00;00] the israel attacks homes in rafa in southern guys are killing at least 16 people, including the show. the don't know about this, and this is all you see of