says, begin, does by didn't have what it takes for another 4 years. the us election 2024 on elsa's 0. the of some painting is on the way in the us presidential election with a repeat context expected between president joe biden. and donald trump. one is the oldest candidates in us history, the other facing criminal trials. what are the issues for voters and for the world? this is inside story, the hello welcome to the program i made for instead of going like to aging boxes, heading into the ring for a showdown, re match joe biden. and donald trump are expected again to be squaring up to each

other in the us presidential election. opinion polls suggest the votes as might prefer a different path to slug it out in november. but they're likely to be the last 2 standing with most rivals already knocked out. they say the all politics is local. but given the political, military and financial power of the u. s, the outcome of the race to the white house is felt worldwide by his presidency. has been busy in military affairs abroad. banking as well as war on garza and to crane and it's fight against russia. trump says he puts america 1st, concentrating on domestic issues, but stores should be backed israel when he was president. so the adjustment of 9 months to go, how's the contest shaping up at this early stage? one of the major issues do foreign affairs matter to us votes as well go to, i guess shortly. but 1st, this report on the camp campaign so far from out of habit, but sent me the race to the white house is narrowing down to what's expected to be

a v run of the 2020 election between the vin president, donald trump, and his successor joe biden, despite facing $9.00 to $1.00 charges and full trials, trump is the funds run up for the republican party nomination, especially after the death knell floor that's run descent as pledge to support of the quitting the race promised essentially, you know, weaponized his shamelessness. he's argued that every indictment is a conspiracy to get him as an effort to bring him down as a sign that democrats are afraid of him and so on. and he's essentially said if you're a republican, you have to be with use of our temp remains the device to see the of the his type it in time and office which was ended by then 4 years ago. trump continues to dispute his defeat. i like donald trump, where he was the president before i felt our country was safer. you know, we didn't pay as much for gas and everything else were paying for. so i and you know, we didn't have more is going on. so i feel he's

a better choice. donald trump is a threat to our democracy and he is a narcissistic lawyer. and therefore, i am afraid of what he would do going into power, especially now that we have, for example, the war and ukraine. president joe biden seems fit to secure the democratic nomination, despite the opinion polls which show his handling of israel's will and gaza is losing him. you've support and from arab americans and was them voters too? that could hurt in a tight election. but many american see us democracy is at stake and the fight and offers the best hope of protecting the so called american dream. to me, the biggest issue is our democracy and making sure that it survived for the future

. and to me, the candidate that can best of the inside as president by the say they would rather have a choice of different and young. good candidates. i really don't like our current options. i feel like we need to get younger just because we've had the same system for so long. i think we need change. the major concerns to vote is food buford policy, but domestic issues such as the economy, inflation, healthcare control and immigration. ultimately, the election will be decided on national issues, but will however, have major international consequences that haven't much a bit of a 0 for inside story. so let's bring it out. i guess for today is discussion from huntington and the state of vermont. we have the actual house on democratic party, political strategists from london with joined by leslie, eventually director of the us and america's program at the track of the house,

think tank and in washington dc is true. the policy, executive, vice president of the quincy institute for responsible statecraft think tank. welcome to you, or let's say, let's stop with you. is it been going to be by them versus trump in november? and what are the chances the trump could actually when, as well, we're sitting here, you know, during the earliest and perhaps the most consequential day in the republican primary season. so difficult to um, preempt the decisions. certainly it looks like it will be a bite and versus trump, and that's a very stark choice that us voters will face if that's where we arrived in november . november is a very long time away. i think that's the, the most important take home point and given especially a leading candidate for the republican nomination. donald trump, who is sitting on multiple accounts of a felony and

a very unpredictable future on that front. but if, if this is where we land come, the elections voters are facing very different choices. of course, most of them will vote on domestic issues. there the, the program that's being put forward not only by donald trump, but all those around him is, is one of loyalty, one of really reducing the size of the executive branch cleaning up house. and it's probably a program of tax cuts, very different from how joe biden has thought about the economy and white. and the nomics is not something that donald trump is likely to embrace. but there are a lot of unknowns in a trump presidency. and, and the biggest one is, who wouldn't be? well, who would be on his team? and that's likely to be very different from what it was before. but informed policy . again, not with the voters are likely going to the polls for, although it might affect their interested in turning out and voting feelings about the war in the middle east. but it is, i would argue, a very,

very different form policy program that, that each of these candidates are promoting. and one is really continuing america's engagement. multilaterally working with partners, certainly setting priorities. and that still biting, but still an international us to very much in atlanta assessed one who's very committed to european security even at a time when, when the current president would like to focus americans efforts in the under pacific. donald trump is, is a very different kind of that sort of policy of how different, what the world look, ben with trump and the white house for a 2nd time. i was sorry, i think 1st of all, the vast majority of the countries in the west at least, would be quite devastated by a 2nd from presidency, if precisely, for the reasons that were just mentioned by an agent that stands assessed. yeah, it is devoted, significant resources,

the defense of europe and the defense of ukraine. however, despite the fact that that is where his intentions lie, i'm not so convinced that he will be able to continue that policy. and in that sense, the difference between by then and trump in europe, may not end up being a start as able to compete for right now, because there are other factors that will be constraining biden in a way that will not allow him to be able to continue with this level of support. so you can, we've already seen how that is shift take all of that is of course, also not in his hands. it's in the hands of congress. those restrictions were having a significant impact on his ability to continue what he has been doing on the middle east. i have to say that this is not that starts by then has continued by and large the policies of the trump administration at the center of it. it has been the abram accords, which the trumpet and instruction put in place as well as when it comes to the world dog. and the president has been as embracing and as differential to israel's

war and use as president biden has that which, which does a lot because tied to that i think it would be fair to say that it was trump. that how that idle but not a bite and has taken it over so in, in the middle east. i don't see a significant change in china again. biden came in, continuing what from had started. it is shifting now in a welcome way in order to be able to reduce pensions there. but it's unclear whether that is it actually cle shift by biden, because of the elections. where if that is a strategic shift away from a much more confrontational path to buy a trump 1st put in place. and i said has on this growing anger in the us of israel's war on guns are particularly among younger voters, according to recent surveys, many of whom would want to vote for trump and then 5. and because of his stance on, on an israel and gaza, and also because of his age, i want, in fact,

has bivens handling is bibles handling of the war likely to have on the type election ration is bivens age. so to him, let me push back on one point in particular in terms of young people voting for trump, of the younger generation, gen z as well as millennials are more anti trump than any other generation. and that is something that continues to show through. the real danger for democrats is that these younger voters won't show up. now as a trend they've been showing up in larger and larger rates, both in presidential and in off year elections. is that trend were to reverse and make it much more difficult providing twins. but i do want to emphasize this point, that both the democratic and republican party leaders are way off base in terms of where the american public as a whole. so stand on issues in the middle east and particularly in gaza. this

disconnect is particularly stark in the democratic party and particularly start among young people where it can show up in the polls is in places where there's high concentrations of muslim americans and era americans. for example, michigan is a swing state. michigan happens to have a high concentration of both those populations. so the democratic party doesn't make good with it's based on any number of issues, but including this one. then it me lose an important and increasingly important component of a support group or a part of our side is, is the democratic party of aware of size and scope 9 months before the election. what's it going to do to change that? i think it's aware of the issue, but i think it and i'm a little bit on the outside for most democratic consultants on this. i think it's aware of the issue, but it's under estimates how important that issue is. now as we mentioned already on this program, people will be voting on economic issues and they'll be building on issues of freedom, the freedom to seek for medical care. you need to start a family if,

when and how you need to. those are big deals for all voters, but to underestimate this, particularly my younger voters who need to see that they actually have a future in this country that can be dangerous to the, to the democratic party. leslie, motor, it's on independence, will be key to november's election as they were. and the last one of our independence attracted to a repelled by trump. well, i mean, i think most independence that again are calling who's a political strategist and say more, but most independents aren't truly independent. they lean republican, are they lean democrats? i think the one thing to really i remind ourselves is, trump, is not any normal candidates. so there are, there are people who, you know, might lean republican, but they simply wouldn't vote for donald trump. and the question is, do they vote at all if the, if they're disappointed with, with president biting for any number of reasons. but they simply won't. but for trump and those are things that are much harder to predict, then the polling which can tell you what people's preferences are,

it won't tell you whether they'll get out of bed in the morning. i did want to say the one thing and response to the comment about, you know, will jo biden's policies and donald trump's policies, where they actually be that different. and again, i think that, you know, if you look, for example, at the question of ukraine and russia, i'm sure it's support getting the, the money passed or congress has gotten difficult. we do know though, that a very, very large number of republicans and democrats still support a policy of a providing military assistance to ukraine. they just wasn't linked to border security. and we also know that donald trump has a very different understanding of relationship with bottom or put and with russia. and i think that is a critical difference regardless what happens with the amount of assistance in dollar terms that goes to ukraine. it matters how you pursue a support of ukraine. it matters what your policy is towards russia. and if you're

sitting here in europe as i am, trust me, people are very, very concerned about the prospect of donald trump in the white house. i'm putting for that strong relationship with latimer put in and really pushing europe hard on the question of america. support for europe. i'm, some of those things are important, but it matters the words you choose in the level of certainty that you give them to europeans through a transition at the moment of a major war. that's very close to home for many europeans to the policy. and they just might say listening. yeah. just as much and for the president will also be electing the boss to be electing congress, including the entire house of representatives. republicans hold historically, razor thin margin, which as we've seen so far, they can't even hold on to amongst their own caucus. in this next selection, if you're buying does well,

it's very likely that he'll be carrying hotels. let me bring a democratic majority in the house. if that's true, all of the difficulties that joe biden has had in continuous support for ukraine. those difficulties will ease away. now, of course, there's been some dissatisfaction on the amount of support in the progress that made. but it's very different. deanna too busy to party stake in our support for ukraine abroad. and unfortunately that to me has happened recently and been driven by donald trump, but a bite. and when in the white house, we'll likely need a democratic when in the house of representatives, which will again, it will ease and a line, some of our foreign policy a policy goals. sort of, do you want to come in on that? and i think the comment is quite correct that obviously people in your art for mendecy worried about trump. i agree with that. and i also said that in terms of where the differences lie between trump and by then it is in europe.

what we're going to see, the biggest difference it is on ukraine. my point is that it's not going to end up being a continuation of a defined in policy today versus what from what i have done. but it's going to be a different bite of policy that is going to have to adjust it. realities are so it's point about what's happening. economy is absolutely true. although i think it should be noted that progressives, how big are we increasingly frustrated? that's the policy of supporting ukraine has not been tied to anything. it's a magic strategy. and as a result, their base is also starting to come say not as i don't in the same numbers, of course, as republicans and independents, but starting to complain about the large number of the large amount of money that is being sent without being tied to a strategy towards actually ending the conflicts. so i think those restrictions are still going to impact by then, and it's not going to be the same policy yesterday. the bigger difference or the bigger similarities and the configuration of the policy is going to be c,

l square. do i agree with that? leslie last year i looked him in his accurately predicted every presidential election since 1984 said that trump is done. he's got too many buttons, too much baggage to be able to run again, even presuming he escapes jail escapes bankruptcy. i'm not sure he's going to escape jail. is ellen lex been going to get it wrong? because trump clearly still has huge support wide to people vote for him despite everything we know about him. and his legal was what explains the enduring popularity. with such a large number of votes as in the us. all right, either 1st of all, it's an election and it's a long, it's a long ways away and people have agency and politics are highly dynamic. but i think he's right. i think that the evidence in terms of voting as opposed to pulling, has demonstrated that, that donald trump hasn't been winning elections for quite some time. now,

when it comes to, you know, beating the, the, the democratic candidate. and of course, this is the 1st time where his name is actually on the ballot. but the, the, the evidence from voting suggests that yes, he clearly has very strong support amongst his base as a demographic that is a base that is continually shrinking. we know it has outsized influence on elections because of the nature of our electoral college and our in our voting, our institutions that shape voting in the us. but i think the numbers are unlikely to be there, and i think there will be a lot of people that won't want to vote for donald trump. and as we move into a period, we're probably there will be another trial in motion by that time. and that's going to affect how people feel that might make his base feel more enthusiastic, but the moderate american that wants to do well pay their bills, have

a degree of stability and predictability is likely to be nervous about of what donald trump would mean for the future of the united states and the daily way that return to just an extraordinarily violet ball, a tile disruptive, chaotic. and every day, way of living is, you know, we've, we've all sort of forgotten what it was like to live under donald trump presidency . but i think as we get closer to the time people will cease to forget and begin to remember. as i said, the president by the says that democracy is at stake in this election. but if he wins this election and has a 2nd term of the white house, and that that is democracy and action, isn't it? i'm, it is the, is the us constitution robust enough to deal with a, with the 2nd trump presidency? i deeply want to believes that it is whoever this is the candidate

who, when he was president and last in election incited, paid for promoted insurrection on the us capital. and then attempted an insurrection, that's where some of these, so many charges come from. and so with democrats and also people who don't have a political party alignment or afraid about the state of our democracy, we can think back to january 6 just 3 years ago. we can also think to the rights that americans have enjoyed for decades that become eroded over time, the right for when and where and how to choose to start to have a family, even the ability to read books in our schools. a lot of people who might not align necessarily with the democratic party, whether because they're independent, so called, or maybe is it just not very active, are seeing the loss of their every day freedoms. this is something different than what we've seen in the past. and i'm actually very happy that you buy it and come with harris. begun to talk about this, not just as an economic issue, but is

a fundamental issue of the freedoms that we as americans enjoy or thought we could enjoy. the stakes for this are higher than i remember. and you know, the thing that we like to say in politics, oh, this is the most important election for life, and we see that every 4 years. but this is a man who encouraged an attempted insurrection. this is a man who opposed the peaceful transfer of power in the united states during one of our uh elections. so when candidates talked about the speak, the, the, the state of our democracy in the 6 that are, this is very real. this is the freedoms we enjoy. this is a peaceful transfer of power. i think it can be underestimated how important is for americans, even just americans thinking about our own domestic lives, who important is uh for us to participate in the selection and, and to see the stakes. the contrast, it's really quite clear for the uh,

the binding campaigns efforts to focus on american values like freedom of going to resonate with vs in the selection. i believe. so the large number, i'm sorry, this is the same with a large number of orders, but i think there's a fax through here that we're not taking into accounts. which is that if the car and floor and gaza can choose and if the bite and the restriction continues, it's policy of supporting it and not doing an effective job. and seeking to contain the concept, nbc, an expansion of the concepts. we're already seeing how the president is saying that despite the fact that these strikes against it who would use according to himself or not working, it's now going to be wrapped up and we're going to have a sustain the bombing campaign, indiana. if this leads into the us actually getting dragged into or walking into a war in the region. another war in the middle east, i think it's going to have

a profound impact on the choices of a lot of holders. i think it's very large number of people who are very concerned about shopping in mind. you rightfully so. what are never the less going to feel like a findings. arguments that this election is about, the survival of american democracy is betrayed by himself. if he allows united states could detract in. so, in other words, because the anti war sentiments amongst the american public republicans and democrats are very, very strong. and, and rightfully so mindful of what these boards have done to the standards of living on the united states. the security united states and the security of the world. and i think this is again a going back to what i should point out early on. there's an underestimation of the impacts of this on the voters. there's a lot of anger about what is being done in gaza right now, but i think it will be much, much worse if by the end continues on this path and the ends up in the united

states dragged into more. okay. let's say you want to pick up on that. yeah, i think the young voters in particular take this very seriously. they do oppose the policy that president biden is pursuing. i would just say, and it is absolutely essential that there is a degree of stability and that america is seen to be able to deliver that stability . and that's a high bar when you know, even if the president biden were to walk back america support for nothing out of his policy. it's not clear that nothing on his policy would change. so, but the blame might still be attributed to president bite. and so the ability to deliver some stability and in a way that aligns with america's interest will be critical for voters. but i would say it's been just over 3 months since october 7th. we are more than 9 months away from, from the us presidential elections. this is a highly dynamic period of time and bindings. policy is likely to adjust as

well. but i think they are very aware of the, of the feedback of the criticism. they've been slow to react to it and to incorporate it into policy. but i suspect that there will be changes in the next 9 months or a short just quickly coming to i know you wanted to get in with that, but i want, i want to ask another question of you before we finish. oh yeah, just quickly, quickly come back. oh, i'm simply saying it actually to an earlier point that the messaging that we talked about reminding americans with a stake about our freedom has been working in previous earlier elections or mid term elections last year or 2 years ago. democrats over performed by historic numbers, special elections that we've had in local elections. we've had, even when trump's name has not been on the ballot. when we talked about the stakes, we dropped in contrast. that is where a lot of democrats do well it has been doing well. so i look forward to more of that, of course, i hope and november. so shortly we've got a little over

a minute left on on the program. i just want to know whether the 5 and campaign would prefer to be up against donald trump in november. we'll nikki haley and i feel the probably confident either way. but when they go up against donald trump, they know they're going up against somebody that they had already previously won against. but over 7000000 votes, just not to be underestimated. more than that terms, voters. he's got that base of voters many which have filled out needed in the time and some of them have come back. but even seeing candidates like mickey healey and the sort of number of people who not done well successfully against trying to, you can see that some of the appetite that people had for trump. we have a one away a little bit. it's honestly not, it's not easy to see weird frontier getting new voters from really he's just going to the same well aggrieved voters from the past by didn't should worry about his

own base. now he can't lose any voters either. i think it'd be probably prefer to go up against sound trump, and i think you're already seeing that messaging coming out of the bite and campaign a very quickly, less than 30 seconds left it. as you said, anything could happen in the next 9 months where we're recording this program ahead of the new hampshire primary. so we don't know what was going to happen. but does nikki haley have any realistic chance of becoming the republican nominee? and you think just very quickly i don't think so, but i think she will have a very significant influence in the future of american politics. great. okay. that we've offended many thanks. data showed house on leslie eventually and to the policy. and as always, thank you for watching. don't forget you can see the program again at any time by going to the website out 0 dot com for further discussion, join us about facebook page. you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash h a inside story out of course you can join the conversation on x all handle. there

is add a inside story from me a for instead of going to the team here. and so we'll see you again, bye for now. the in on a settled tax upfront takes on the big issue, studies of post tax to what is happening now. it is a question of 5 unflinching questions. rigorous. the bank that he added to today is that another mcclin's thing is taking place. augusta. nothing goes into garza without his real permission. nothing leaves casa without result. permission allow me to push back for a moment, demanding a ceasefire, demanding an end to the root causes of all of this violence upfront, without the mood and untold stories from asia and the pacific on which is era.

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just makes modern plates? the the hello on my name's side. this is news life and i was coming up in the next 16 minutes. con eunice bones. they are reports. israel has filed on one of southern garza's last major hospitals. displays called a city is free for the lives desperately trying to escape, and all that is ready. bombardments didn't. you might have been for any media too many times. the spies.