in the states has no business getting involved in that. and 3 pod series explodes, the implications of us and people who called lowest the freedom of speech and 1st amendment by how many words, what i have to change in this legislation and seeing use it to flush receipts of anyone who supports black was or is involved in protesting for environmental, and it's like 10 words pod, 3, the template on our campaigning is on the way in the us presidential election with a repeat contest expected between president joe biden. and donald trump, one is the oldest candidates in us history, the other facing criminal trials. what are the issues for voters? and for the world, this is inside story, the

hello welcome to the program. i'm adrian, instead of going like to aging boxes, heading into the ring for a showdown, re match joe biden. and donald trump are expected again to be squaring up to each other in the us presidential elections. opinion polls suggest the votes as might prefer a different path to slug it out in november. but they're likely to be the last 2 standing with most rivals already knocked out. they say the all politics is local. but given the political, military and financial power of the us, the outcome of the race to the white house is felt. the world wide by his presidency, has been busy in military affairs, a broad backing as well as well on garza and ukraine. and it's fine as against russia. trump says he puts america 1st, concentrating on domestic issues, but stores should be backed israel when he was president. so was just on the 9 months to go. how's the contest shaping up at this early stage? what are the major issues do foreign affairs matter to us votes as well go to, i guess so shortly. but 1st,

this report on the camp campaign so far from out of habit but sent me the race to the white house is narrowing down to what to expect it to be a v run of the 2020 election between the then president donald trump and his success that job i did despite facing $91.00 charges and full trials, trump is the funds run up for the republican party nomination. especially of the devil, florida brun defense has touched his support of the quitting the race promised essentially, you know, weaponized shamelessness. he's argued that every indictment is a conspiracy to get him. it's an effort to bring him down as a sign that democrats are afraid of him and so on. and he's essentially said, if you're a republican, you have to be with the use of our temp remains the device to see the of the his turbulent time in office, which was ended by by than 4 years ago. trump continues to dispute his defeat. i like donald trump,

whatever the president before i felt our country was safer. you know, we didn't pay as much for gas and everything else were paying for. so i and you know, we didn't have more is going on. he's a good choice. donald trump is a threat to our democracy and he is a narcissistic lawyer. and therefore, i am afraid of what he would do going into power, especially now that we have, for example, the war and ukraine. president joe biden seems set to secure the democratic nomination. despite the opinion polls which show his handling of israel's will and gaza is losing him. you've support and from arab americans. and was them voters to that could hurt in a tight election. but many american see us democracy is that states and the side

and offers the best hope of protecting the so called american dream. to me, the biggest issue is our democracy and making sure that it survives for the future . and to me, the candidate that can best advance that as president by the say they would rather have a choice of different and young good candidates. i really don't like our current options. i feel like we need to get younger just because i don't know we've had the same system for so long. i think we need change. the major concerns to vote is food buford policy, but domestic issues such as the economy, inflation, healthcare control and emigration. ultimately, the election will be decided on national issues, but will however, have major international consequences that haven't much a bit of a 0 for inside story. so let's bring it out. i guess for today is discussion from burlington in the state

of vermont. we have a short house on democratic party, political strategist from london with joined by leslie, eventually, director of the us and america's program with a chunk of house think tank ad in washington dc. is true. the policy, executive, vice president of the quincy institute for responsible state craft think tank. welcome to you, or let's say, let's stop with you. is it been going to be by them versus trump in november? and what are the chances that trump could actually when, as well, we're sitting here, you know, during the early as to perhaps the most consequential day in the republican primary season. so difficult to um, preempt the decisions. certainly it looks like it will be advising versus trump, and that's a very stark choice that us voters will face of. that's where we arrived in november. november is a very long time away. i think that's the, the most important take home point and given especially

a leading candidate for the republican nomination. donald trump, who is sitting on multiple count 7 felony and a very unpredictable feature on that front. but if, if this is where we land come, the elections voters are facing very different choices. of course, most of them will vote on domestic issues. there the, the program that's being put forward, not only by donald trump, but all those around him is, is one of loyalty, one of really reducing the size of the executive branch cleaning up house. and it's probably a program of tax cuts, very different from how joe biden has thought about the economy and white. and the nomics is not something that donald trump is likely to embrace. but there are a lot of unknowns in a trump presidency. and, and the biggest one is who would be, who would be on his team? and that's likely to be very different from what it was before, but inform policy. again, not with the voters are likely going to the polls for,

although it might affect their interest in, in turning out and voting feelings about the war in the middle east. but it is, i would argue, a very, very different form policy program that, that each of these candidates are promoting. and one is really continuing america's engagement. multilaterally working with partners, certainly setting priorities and that still biting, but still an international us to me, very much in atlanta assessed one who was very committed to european security even at a time when, when the current president would like to focus americans efforts in the under pacific donald trump is, is a very different kind of it. sure the policy of how different, what the world look, ben with trump in the white house for a 2nd time. i was sorry, i think 1st of all, the vast majority of countries in the west at least, would be quite devastated by

a 2nd from presidency. if precisely, for the reasons that were just mentioned. uh, binding is in that sense. it says, yeah, it is devoted significant resources to defense the bureau for the defense of ukraine. however, despite the fact that that is where his intentions lie, i'm not so convinced that he will be able to continue that policy. and in that sense, the difference between by then and trump in europe, may not end up being a start, as it would look on paper right now, because there are other factors that will be constraining biden in a way that will not allow him to be able to continue with this level of support. so you can, we've already seen how that is shifting. all of that is, of course, obviously not in his hands. it's in the hands of congress. those restrictions were having a significant impact on his ability to continue what he has been doing on the middle east. i have to say the defense is not that starts by then has continued by and large the policies of the trump administration. at the center of it,

it has been the abram accords, which the trumpet and instruction put in place as well as when he comes to the world dog. and no president has been as embracing and as differential to israel's war and use as president biden has that which, which says a lot because tied to that i think it would be fair to say that it was trump. that how that idle but not of i didn't, has taken it over so in, in the middle east. i don't see a significant change in china. it can bided, came man, continuing what from had started. it is shifting now and walk away in order to be able to reduce tensions there, but it's unclear whether that is it actually cold shift by, by then, because of the elections, where if that is a strategic shift away from a much more confrontational path, and by a trump 1st put in place, as i said, has on and this growing younger in the us of israel's war on guns are particularly among younger voters, according to recent surveys,

many of whom would want to vote for trump and then 5. and because of his stance on, on an israel and gauze, and also because of his age. and one in fact, has bivens handling, is bibles handling of the war, likely to have on the a tight election race and is bivens age, searching him. let me push back on one point in particular in terms of young people voting for trump, of the younger generation, gen z, as well as millennials are more anti trump than any other generation. and that is something that continues to show through. the real danger for democrats is that these younger voters won't show up. now as a trend they've been showing up in larger and larger rates, both in presidential and in off year elections. is that transferred to reverse it makes it much more difficult for biting twins. but i do want to emphasize this point, that both the democratic and republican party leaders are way off base in terms of

where the american public as a whole stand on issues in the middle east and particularly in gaza. this disconnect is particularly stark in the democratic party and particularly start among young people where it could show up in the polls is in places where there's high concentrations of muslim americans and ever americans. for example, michigan is a swing state. michigan happens to have a high concentration of both those populations. so the democratic party doesn't make good with it's based on any number of issues, but including this one. then it me lose an important and increasingly important component of a support group or is a part of our size. the democratic party are aware of the size and scope 9 months before the election. what's it going to do to change that? so i think it's aware of the issue, but i think it, and i'm a little bit on the outside for most of our kind of consultants on this. i think it's aware of the issue, but it's under estimates how important that issue is. now as we mentioned already

on this program, people will be building on economic issues and they'll be building on issues of freedom, the freedom to seek medical care. do you need to start a family if, when and how you need to. those are big deals for all voters, but to underestimate this degree, my younger voters who need to see that they actually have a future in this country. that can be dangerous to the devil to the democratic party. leslie, motor, it's on independence, will be key to november election as they were. and the last one of our independence attracted to a repelled by trump. well, i mean, i think most independence that again our colleagues who's a political strategist and say more, but most independents aren't truly independent. they lean republican, are they lean democrats? i think the one thing to really i remind ourselves, is, trump, is not any normal candidates. so there are, there are people who, you know, might lead republican, but they simply wouldn't vote for donald trump. and the question is, do they vote at all if, if they're disappointed with,

with president biting for any number of reasons. but they simply won't. but for trump and those are things that are much harder to predict, then the pull it and which can tell you what people's preferences are, it won't tell you whether they'll get out of bed in the morning. i did want to say the one thing and response to the comment about, you know, we'll jo biden's policies and donald trump's policies where they actually be that different. and again, i think that, you know, if you look, for example, at the question of ukraine and russia, i'm sure it's support getting the, the money passed or congress has gotten difficult. we do know though, that a very, very large number of republicans and democrats still support a policy of, of providing military assistance to ukraine. they just want to link to border security. and we also know that donald trump has a very different understanding of relationship with vladimir putin and with russia . and i think that is a critical difference regardless what happens with the amount of assistance in

dollar terms that goes to ukraine. it matters how you pursue a support of ukraine. it matters what your policy is towards russia. and if you're sitting here in europe, as i am, trust me, people are very, very concerned about the prospect of donald trump in the white house. i'm putting for that strong relationship with vladimir putin and really pushing europe hard on the question of america. support for europe, some of those things are important, but it matters the words you choose in the level of certainty that you give to europeans through a transition at a moment of a major war. that's very close to home for many europeans to the policy. and you might say less than yeah, just as much and for the president will also be electing the boss be electing congress, including the entire house of representatives. republicans hold historically,

razor thin margin, which as we've seen so far, they can't even hold on to amongst their own caucus. in this next selection, if you're buying does well, it's very likely that he'll be carrying hotels. let me bring a democratic majority in the house. if that's true, all of the difficulties that joe biden has had and continue our support for ukraine . those difficulties will ease away. now, of course, there's been some dissatisfaction on the amount of support and the progress that made. but it's very different. deanna too busy to party stake in our support for ukraine abroad. and unfortunately that to me has happened recently and been driven by donald trump, but a bite. and when in the white house will likely mean a democratic when in the house, the representatives which will, again, it will ease in a line, some of our foreign policy, a policy goals that you want to, to come in on that. and i think the comment is quite correct that

obviously people in your art for mendecy worried about trump. i agree with that. and i also think that in terms of where the differences lie between trump and by then it is in europe, we're going to see the biggest difference it is on ukraine. my point is that it's not going to end up being a continuation of a defined in policy today versus what from what i have done. but it's going to be a different by the policy that is going to have to adjust it. realities are set to point about what's happening. calm is, is absolutely true, although i think it should be noted that progressives, how big are we increasingly frustrated that the policy of supporting ukraine has not been tied to a need to speak to a matic strategy. and as a result, their base is also starting to come say not as i don't in the same numbers, of course, as republicans and independents, but starting to complain about the large number of the large amount of money. that is the sense without being tied to a strategy towards actually ending the call 6. so i think those restrictions are

still going to impact by then, and it's not going to be the same policy yesterday. the bigger difference or the bigger similarities and the configuration of the policy is going to be c l square. do i agree with that? leslie? last year i looked him in his accurately predicted every presidential election since 1984 said that trump is done. he's got too many buttons, too much baggage to be able to run again, even presuming he escapes jail escapes bankruptcy. i'm not sure he's going to escape jail. is ellen lex been going to get it wrong because trump clearly still has huge support wide to people vote for him despite everything we know about him. and his legal was what explains the enduring popularity with such a large number of votes as in the us. all right, either 1st of all, it's an election and it's a long, it's a long ways way and people have agency and politics are highly dynamic. but i think

he's right. i think that the evidence in terms of voting as opposed to pulling, has demonstrated that, that donald trump hasn't been winning elections for quite some time. now, when it comes to, you know, beating the, the, the democratic candidate. and of course, this is the 1st time where his name is actually on the ballot. but the, the evidence from voting suggests that yes, he clearly has very strong support amongst his base as a demographic that is a base that is continually shrinking. we know it has outsized influence on elections because of the nature of our electoral college and our in our voting, our institutions that shape voting in the us. but i think the numbers are unlikely to be there, and i think there will be a lot of people that won't want to vote for donald trump. and as we move into a peer and we're probably there will be another trial in motion by that time. and that's going to affect how people feel that might make his base feel more

enthusiastic, but the moderate american that wants to do well pay their bills, have a degree of stability and predictability is likely to be nervous about of what donald trump would mean for the future of the united states in the daily way, that return to just an extraordinarily vile ball, a tile disruptive, chaotic. and every day, way of living is, you know, we've, we've all sort of forgotten what it was like to live under donald trump presidency . but i think as we get closer to the time people will cease to forget and begin to remember. as i said, the president bible says that democracy is at stake in this election. but if you witness this election and has a 2nd time of the white house, and that, that is democracy in action, isn't it? i'm, it is the, is the us constitution robust enough to deal with a? well, the 2nd trump presidency,

i deeply want to believes that it is whoever this is the candidate who, when he was president and last election in cited pay for promoted and insurrection on the us capital. and then attempted an insurrection. that's where some of these, so many charges come from. and so with democrats and also people who don't have a political party alignments, are afraid about the state of our democracy. we can think back to january 6th, just 3 years ago. we can also, thanks to the rights of that americans have enjoyed for decades. they've become the road it over time, the right for when and where and how to choose to start to have a family, even the ability to read books in our schools. a lot of people who might not align this is certainly was a democratic party whether because they're independent, so called or maybe because they're just not very active are seeing the loss of

their everyday freedoms. this is something different than what we've seen in the past. and i'm actually very happy that you by didn't come with harris, begun to talk about this, not just as an economic issue, but is a fundamental issue of the freedoms that we as americans enjoy or thought we could enjoy. the stakes for this are higher than i remember. and you know, the thing that we like the same politics. oh, this is the most important election of our lives and we see that every 4 years. this is a man who encouraged an attempted insurrection. this man who opposed the peaceful transfer of power in the united states during one of our uh elections. so when candidates talked about the stake, the, the, the state of our democracy in the 6 that are, this is very real. this is the freedoms we enjoy. this is a peaceful transfer of power. i think it can't be underestimated how important it is for americans. even just americans thinking about our own domestic lives,

who important is uh for us to participate in the selection and, and to see the stakes. the contrast, it's really quite clear for the uh, the bite and campaigns efforts to focus on american values like freedom going to resonate with vs in the selection. i believe. so the large number, i'm sorry, this is the same with a large number of older, just like i think there's a fax through here that we're not taking into accounts, which is that if the car and floor and guys can choose. and if the binding the restriction continues, it's policy of supporting it and not doing an effective job and seeking to contain the concept mbc and the expansion of the concepts. we're already seeing how the president is saying that despite the fact that these strikes against it, who does, according to himself or not working, it's now going to be wrapped up and we're going to have

a sustained the bombing campaign, indiana. if this leads into the us actually getting dragged into or walking into a war in the region. another war in the middle east, i think it's going to have a profound impact on the choices of a lot of holders. i think it's very large number of people who are very concerned about shopping in mind. you rightfully so. what are never the less going to feel like a biden's arguments that this election is about the survival of american democracy is betrayed by himself. if he allows united states to detract in so, in other words, because the anti war sentiments amongst the american public republicans and democrats are very, very strong. and, and rightfully so mindful of what these boards have done to the standards of living on the united states. the security united states and the security of the world. and i think this is again a going back to what i should point out early on. there is an underestimation of the impacts of this on the voters. there's

a lot of anger about what is being done in gaza right now, but i think it will be much, much worse if by the end continues on this path and it ends up getting the united states dragged into war. okay, let's say, do you want to pick up on that? yeah, i think the young voters in particular take this very seriously. they do oppose the policy that president biden is pursuing. i would just say, and it is absolutely essential that there is a degree of stability in that america is seen to be able to deliver that stability . and that's a high bar when you know, even if the president biden were to walk back america support for nothing out of his policy. it's not clear that nothing on his policy would change. so, but the blame might still be attributed to president biting. so the ability to deliver some stability and in a way that aligns with america's interest will be critical for voters. but i would say it's been just over 3 months since october 7th. we are more than 9 months away

from from the us presidential elections. this is a highly dynamic period of time and bindings. policy is likely to adjust as well. but i think they are very aware of the, of the feedback of the criticism. they've been slow to react to it and to incorporate it into policy. but i suspect that there will be changes in the next 9 months, or it should just quickly come to, i know you wanted to get in with that, but i want to, i want to ask another question of you before we finish. so yeah, just quickly, quickly come back. oh, i'm simply saying it actually to an earlier point that the messaging that we talk about reminding americans what the state about our freedom has been working in previous earlier elections or mid term elections last year or 2 years ago. democrats over performed by historic numbers, special elections that we've had in local elections. we've had, even one from sneed has not been on the ballot when we talked about the stakes. we

dropped in contrast. that is where a lot of democrats do well and have been doing well. and so i look forward to more of that, of course, i hope and november 1st, we've got a little over a minute left on on the program. i just want to know whether the 5 and campaign would prefer to be up against donald trump in november. we'll nikki haley and i feel that they're probably confident either way. but when they go up against donald trump, they know they're going up against somebody that they had already previously won against by over 7000000 votes. just not to be underestimated more than that terms, voters. he's got that base of voters many which have filled out you you needed. and in the time and some of them have come back. but even seeing candidates like nikki haley and that sort of number of people who are not done well successfully against trying to, you can see that some of the appetite that people had for trump. we have a want to weigh a little bit. it's honestly not. it's not easy to see weird fronting,

getting new voters from really he's just going to the same well aggrieved voters from the past biden should worry about his own base. now, he can't lose any voters either. i think it'd be probably prefer to go up against sound trump. i think you're already seeing that messaging coming out of the binding campaign. a very quickly, less than 30 seconds left. as you said, anything could happen in the next 9 months where we're recording this program ahead of the new hampshire primary. so we don't know what was going to happen. but does nikki haley have any realistic chance of becoming the republican nominee? and you think just very quickly i don't think so, but i think she will have a very significant influence in the future of american politics. great. okay. that we've offended many thanks. data showed hass on leslie eventually and to the policy . and as always, thank you for watching. don't forget you can see the program again at any time by going to the website out 0 dot com for further discussion,

join us about facebook page. you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash age a inside story out of course you can join the conversation on x all handle. there is add a inside story from me instead of going to the team here. and so we'll see you again, bye for now the, the hearing the have you had any like says he has the support of 15000 implement the shop economic plan to do is teams across the world. we're going to go and have a look at some of those about choices, how when you closer to the house of the story, every human mind is unique and managing thoughts at the emotions can be a challenge. if you're not helping meant to me, then it's sort of like you're, you're not living. we travel to south africa to explore traditional healing techniques to being used to improve wellbeing. only one is and basically for the

1st of all cleansing and to south korea, we're bring training is leading to a lympics success. it's one of the most important factors to be able to stay calm, stay relaxed and be able to share your shot as you normally would amongst episode suite on all just on heard voices. very few people are sitting up against the door right now. i want to be one of them connect with our community and talking to conversations you will find elsewhere. he's healthy, the human noises. but also i want to want to know us as a human, to have a connection with the stream on out to 0. the,

[000:00:00;00] the, [000:00:00;00] the flow, i'm sammy's a, them, this is the news live from dell coming up in the next 60 minutes for pulse of mass casualties in southern galls or is this friday strikes it to you and center sheltering? tens of thousands of palestinians is variety focuses, carry out. time can drive the tax on the farm, eunice,

killing more than $200.00 contest. it ends in one day. also this out rusher accuse is ukraine of shooting down to minutes,