the fence that our passion lies in making sure that you're hearing the stories from people in places like how is fine with the young man regions. and so many others. we go to them, we make the effort. we care strict. yes another inconclusive main thing to reach a deal with with how much and fees? well it comes as these right admitted to a flattening a ground defensive of the southern tip of gaza. so does diplomacy still spend a chance in this war? and why does not to this is inside story, the hello welcome to the program. i'm hushing a bottle of. he's around is whitening a ground defensive, rough, or he might tell you, organizations have wound of

a catastrophe. if it goes ahead behind the scenes, mediators are still trying to broadcast east by a deal for possible ground defensive into a lot that has bays the stakes of the negotiations which resumed this week. what would it take for him on sunday as well to reach an agreement as lots to discuss with august? first, this report all the situation in rough israel is intensifying its aerial bombardment of rough or something most city. and the goal is to strip. at least one and a half 1000000 palestinians have fled that taking refuge in tents and makes shift show to many have been displaced. several times escaping is ready, palms and following is ready. forced evacuation order as well. uh, equipment. i mean from the, on the car, we were to sleep at home when it happened, the sudden bombing, we didn't know what was going on, the gunshots best from the street to street. we also had 5 digits and had to go up to this war. and then we will hit by missiles so that we were in total shock and we

didn't know where to high up and, and supposed to live in the bowl. these radium electric, designated rafa safe. so now it's threatening a ground defensive, trapped between the egyptian border and the mediterranean sea. terrified civilians have no way left to go. the looming is radio operations given ceased by negotiations in cairo, and added element of urgency. hoping for diplomatic breakthrough chips and officials a hosting that guitar re prime minister as well as the directors of the us and is really intelligence agencies. the 1st day ended without an agreement. it's not the only attempt and will this over to last month, south africa, bolt charges of genocide against israel at the international court of justice. it follow that up on tuesday with an urgent request, asking the un top court to consider whether ground operation involved further violated palestinian rights. to date this little evidence,

israel has abided by the icy judge moving in january to take full measures possible to prevent active, plausible genocide in garza and even staunch is really all i seem to be changing that stance to many of the over 27000 policies killed in this conflict, having isn't civilians, children, including thousands of children and hundreds of thousands have no access to food, water, other basic services. i'm pointing fingers at all turning on one another. how many times have you hurt? do you must plumbing to lead us on for a minute to a 100? was saying to many people are being killed by them by the head. this is too much on the top is not proportional. well, if you believe that too many people are being killed, maybe you should provide less arms to know that to prevent so many people being

killed. but given benjamin netanyahu, whose defiance of the i c, j, an international opinion. how likely is it that a full scale ground defensive for profit can be avoided? poking out you 0 for inside story the. let's bring it all gus in the, in the u. k. robert guy spin full is alexa on the sun secuity out. i'm university. his special expertise is these riley military into by hosp. the halley is an independent political consultant who focuses on the middle east, north africa, and the horn of africa. and in new york city, a lot of mine is a fellow of the middle east council on global affairs. welcome to the program brothers. how seriously this prospect of the military invasion of rough, uh, how do you think is just more of a push by these varieties for political leverage during the tools which are on the way for the, for the as i think is

a deadly series portion. israel has the intentions to carry this out. and farm is the net to yahoo is argue that there are full functional. how much battalions in rockford at now originally that were 24 at uprising him us battalions as well. now long use of this, of all the full, all located solely in rock by surveys rel, would to carry out, is stated war, him, of degrading and destroying, am us military and rendering it politically unable to move the gaza strip after the war example feels like a grand evasion of rock but is not just inevitable but necessary. and in fact is important to note that previously these writing military elite suggested the is roshan. prioritize ross of forward to ground invasion because this is what we see. and every, this is on the border with egypt is where most of the tunnels passed through and her boss is elaborate to smuggling operation has been based in for many, many years. but as well as critical leadership, vito died in favor of initial operation early in the north of golf. and i

particularly ran dollars a city as israel's failed to achieve its goals as far as the warrants increasing, slightly south and rock. but is, of course, the last place on the map, it's still and how much is control? how so these writers have this thing though, if i hadn't made the final uh see for how much key made it to but tale is do you see the push pull it off as a turning point in the water and gaza? thank you, i assume and yes, i think we're at a major want to shed my mention this conflict, not just because of the mass save humanitarian cost of any tool cause the ground invasion. we shouldn't forget that throughout the war. and even in the last week, these are these continue to bombard, drop off. this is not an area that has been a safe zone as they initially labeled it as thoughts when they, us citizens, to move from the city and further north down to the south. but also because of

course it is, uh right, it sits right on the border with the egypt. it's at the last, it's seen by the egyptians as a major breach of, uh you know, that, that national security. and ultimately, it brings into the question of why will these 1340000 people go the know the rest of how does that is effectively uninhabitable? there are no services. we're on we, we, we've had to talk assignments for months now and, and now we're at a stage where this is, this is really the, is randy government enacting what they promised them the 1st week off to the attacks october 7th, which is the flat to illustrate all of the it is right, the problem is understanding the whole has been all doing the all me to draw up plans to evacuate civilians from the city towards the north end as have so it was basically saying the safe in gaza if the invasion takes place

what kind of impact do you see it? having all the civilians facing of the south. i mean, don't take it for me, take it from the head of the w h o. the head of the un had a bundle that had of all these un agencies, anybody that's active on the ground, anybody that's been there and seen what that looks like today. and what these really have done to the rest of the strip has said this isn't unfathomable catastrophe in waiting at the moment. i have so said there's nowhere else for people to go. israel has driven 1500000 people. ready or less because it was 250000 and ended up before the war started into their. so that's the overwhelming majority of the gaza strip. has been driven into it off the small sliver on the border with the egypt. most of those people are intense and shelters starving with know where to go and the kind of the warm machine that is there as a mass is bearing down on them with what the i c j has said,

is genocidal intent. so, you know, despite what the, the other guest set about, you know, war aims targeting, how may i ask for battalions? i hang there, we, we can't lose sight that the i c j a few weeks ago said that israel has, is, is plausibly perpetrating a genocide against the pallets and people. and if you look at it through that lens, then what they happens to. ready for the people of gaza is, is as much military as it is a psychological to break the, the will of the people that are hanging on for dear life that have a mass there that are starving. and that israel has, has demonstrated through which words indeed its intention is to put, push them into the sign i credential roll. that's with seems on roll on for the full phases, really land plus bombardment or the northern part of, of, of guys. and then these varieties move to was heine units. and each time that was saying, basically, the reason why the doing this is to degrade the minutes. what capabilities of have

my sons in my how much admitted to present as a but also the looking ahead to what happens next. now when it comes to it off, i do see how would you see the scope of the invasion if it happens, then what kinds of weaponry do things these riley's be the using i suspect will see significant numbers of boots on the ground. that now is right, has encouraged this and significant minutes, every casualties in this campaign, but it is actually the, those policies and the numbers all lower than the initial. all the estimates suggested now and less that just sort of $600.00 is ready. the military personnel had been killed since october. the 7th book at stolen majority of those were killed october. the 7th. so for months of $42.00, there's been less. is there any cash these the no, not one day. i think these ready military, we're very keen to get in there for the problem. he has some of the other guests of alluded to israel house based on folding humanitarian crises on his own home on at toms. and that crisis is also an operational issue here because we have 1500000

civilians crammed into this very small territory that it used to be inhabited by around 250 people that so the potential for civilian casualties is even higher than it has been out of its funds since military campaign, you have an acute problem of civilian casualties. israel also cause morgan acute need to avoid civilian casualties. on the other hand, because international pressure and combination is increasing the by not just ration, right, you increasingly clear is losing patients with israel and it was the seas 5. and it was that the escalation hostilities as soon as possible. so as well as in a race against time to achieve its very, very lofty goals that didn't really correspond to a limited incursion at what time is running out for it to do so. but yeah, when you look at the situation all the ground is here to, to the defense reality. i have so 1400000 people shot to him in times without access to food water and met his in the united nations. and he might tell you the fast chief mountain griffith said that the mid to a price could lead to

a slow to in goes the you have these bodies are saying the other month of the need to go that because they say that's the only way for them to crush. how about do you still think that the international community can have some sort of leverage to some of these riders for moving forward to i mean, just as also to comments on the, on the previous intervention, answer your question. the question is, do they have leverage is very obvious. yes. they do come. they have leverage to the main question because they haven't even used it. they haven't attempted to. the un has made it's please, the security council has had resolutions table, but the united states has to be towed united states that the largest military of supply and both aid and on sales to as well. no leverage has yet been used by the international community. the biggest powers, namely by the united states to try and prevent the so we sort of talking around in

circles because we get these double speak statements from the white house, from, from different podiums in washington telling us that they're incredibly concerned. and they've explained these consent at no points in this, in this campaign. over the last 5 months, have the united states move to actually have it for all the trouble to a number of incidents and actions that seem to full fall out of the um, bit of the rules of engagements in conflict, let alone the intense bombardment, let alone the attacking of civilian infrastructure, humanitarian infrastructure, like hospitals and other places. so we're actually more to stage of talking about austin ourselves. will the united states use as leverage full indications to this point, even with thoughts as low as mountain griffiths, a very well points up and drop off. blooming doesn't appear that it will use as leverage. so we have to move to expect that that will be no significance pushed back against these frame these moving forward on this invasion. so the ha,

i'm out of the south african lawyers when they put together or the, the, the, the, the procedure to was the for the i c j. they were hoping to see the thought process particular states to provide substance submitted to a financial assistance to is well be held accountable. in the case of something similar to what happens ele, uh, as it always goes on, particularly if the invasion of love that takes place. is there something that could further resonate among the judges of the i said, you knowing that the south africans, they have us officially the i c, j to consider. was that a force good invasion of love? i would violate the into him voting by the court itself. issued yes, i think i think uh, you know, what's uh, what's transpired over the past few weeks since the initial ruling definitely comes into play. when the south africans have gone back, are going back to the i. c. j to ask for, for, for the rulings further injunctions because of the situation being so urgent with what's happening on the board with the customer. so i think they have to take that into consideration. certainly we all hope that israel's enablers over the past 4

months, would have gotten the message from the i, c j and, and put pressure on israel to, to halt it's been barred, meant and to at least take seriously the 6 orders of the i, c, j, in terms of protecting a civilians, unfortunately that has not happened. i totally agree with have. so in terms of her analysis on all of this, but we have to take the by the administration's hand wringing when it comes to nothing. yahoo with the sense of disingenuousness because in spite of in spite of the rhetoric the u. s. has continued to enable and every in every way, i mean, just 2 days ago, the us senate passed, you know, if 14000000000 dollar aid package to israel. now it still needs to go to the house, but that should tell you a lot. in spite of the ruling of genocide a, this is where we are. rather, when you look at a post october the 7th through then you don't get a sense of these right?

it really have a sense of clarity about how to move forward midtown, already or politically. because people are wondering why would these varieties decide now to go for an offensive in rough, like when everything got it is a stake. typically the talks which are behind closed doors to try to secure a political dean that would pay the way for these rather captive to be reduced. yeah, i think what we're seeing here is a very delicate balancing act. boy, that's in yahoo because and he does have, i want to challenge this user. there is no pressure from the bottom inspection. i think i was extremely one sided interpretation that is pressure from the bite of ministration. it is a moment lodge, the behind closed door, the bottom. myspace has tried to shape this war. it is getting increasingly frustrated. and he's rel, i'm a power and not in compliance in what it wants to achieve and what it's asking for from these raiders. but it is pressuring these res, behind closed door over time,

that may be coming, increasing the public. so that to me, the pressure on the one hand to de escalate or agree to a ceasefire, or at least to tell us how this ends. but what, but yeah, but you know, we're all the time. it is the coalition within israel mentioned y'all who is dependent on a fall right. coming as you who said, we will talk to the government if there is a deal to at 3 of the hostages, the ends of the seas fund. it doesn't add to the mazda store. this isn't matching the best interest to remain on venue as for as long as possible. and as a result, we see israel basically expanding its campaign because the military is not getting a clear enough. and basically the direction of the most and the political rational as a bonus. you know, uh, rubbers of the general consensus you this both of the weather absolutely. don't believe that there is any pushed by the international community. all of them that it goes to put an end to the war in gaza, or for any leverage on the is right is because but said this aside and look at the scope of the massive destruction and the loss of life in gaza. and then you get

a sense that nobody's doing anything to try to help the policy is half. so with this have any kind of impact on the folks on the way to come up with a political agreement? i mean, it's also actually quite interesting and how they're running concurrent. so all of this language coming out to be is randy will cabinet and from the prime minister focused on and off off. and i, you know, we, we continue to be in the cycle where we get a flurry of diplomacy from us officials to come to the region. and this sort of, you know, initially it took some proposal that has been amended and shaped into something that it is hoped that can be some meeting in the middle between is relevant and, and i'm us, i'm, at the same time i would just sort of unit wide in the scope a little bit. if we're talking about a political agreement, we kind of look at how does that in a, back to what has happened in the west bank since october 7th, thousands of public opinion. and so i've been arrested hundreds have been killed

just since up to the 7th, let alone pre october, 7th in the bottom. and since you in disposition and you know, an increase of civilian militia at the hands of the national security minister, this government is ralph has a very clear co current empower now policy. it is looking to implement under the guise of this war. and the fact that under the guise of this one apartment in the us of its 6 to root out from us and the 2 are not mutually exclusive of one another and then not working separately of one another that very much in terms of and i agree that, you know, method, yahoo is completely dependent on this far right coalition. but in the same sense, this far right coalition is dependent on the current circumstances of this war to continue to conduct its behavior and its activities across the entirety of the occupied territories. so even if we want to look at the hostage agreement and so kind of see spot in, in the heads up with a hostage present,

a swell in the last one that we saw more is kind of sinews were arrested, the were released. so the entire team of the tired trees and seems to be taken into account, which is not being done on the part of any of the actors around the table speed in cairo, in paris, or at any point that they've mentioned recent weeks of my would it be possible for the toddler is the gypsies of the american to now to some of the differences between how much and is why this is why this done is why it says that they would continue even with a deal. they would continue the fight until they crush how much, how much, on the other hand is saying they're not going to go ahead with anything unless there is strong guarantee of a permanency is by and these right is putting out entirely from guys that would be possible for the mediators to not assemble those differences. unfortunately, i don't see them coming together. maybe narrow a bit, but ultimately i think these 2 sides are too far apart. israel, i think is intent on the, you know,

in pursuing this campaign to the end and nothing else was made that clear total victory. what that means is a bit more obscure. some people are reading into it the, the elimination of how math is military capabilities. others are reading it to something that you know far more sweeping against the palestinian people in gauze i mean towards the latter, but i don't think that nothing, you know, has any intention of stopping. i don't think there is even a prioritization of the hostages that remain there. if so is what would not be carpet bombing of the gaza strip. you know, it's already killed the $31.00 of its own people including 3 that were shot dead waving white flags trying to escape. and so i don't think there's, you know, any, any other interest here besides pushing all the way to the end. and you know, bringing the, the full weight of that military machine down on the pallets and, and people that are there in the gaza strip of us the side of the, if it was going to be any evasion of rough or has going to be boots on the ground. now if you look at the of the geography on the landscape,

we're talking about the area of the board as age of. do you see these values moving forward? if this thoughts pounding, those of areas is going to be closer to the minutes with both of the egyptians with the potential massive spin over. yeah, this has, as you say, potential folk and regional consequences is something that is this more is looking less and less limited to the cause of straight. you know, we've had the mention of what's happening in the west bank. that's the unfolding situation on the 11 and border. and this comes with not responding over to agent, which is the cc machines worst nightmare. and they have warned as well as any, any such spell it as a would basically operate the peace treaty between both countries. i'm what cc davis trying to do is to try to induce a stronger response and president, by egypt you will be talking to the americans and say, no, we need you to stop these, right? he's going into rafa or at least minimizing that presence because we kind of have this for the next. we kind of anything looks like we are all complicit in the ethnic cleansing of the gaza strip or the fullest migration of golf and from

southern garza into a saw. and i put into because best buy has these people have nowhere else to go. is role when let number to know. i took all the city to the end which has been essentially reduced to rubble. i didn't well, i mean, well let them come over the border. so these 1500000 displays people on that add more desperately. i have more destitute than i have, but at the same time that really, you know, clear exit strategy that for these people. and that is where the bottom ministration on egypt should stay at the movie. pressuring is ralph. okay, try and come to the conclusion that how so should we take they've just seriously with the rules that if they offensive takes place, that could you put dies the decades old districts in between these violent egypt and i would love to confidently say that yes, you could my personal feeling is but now is the time to suspend the company of a treaty? i think that it is the only thing that may consequentially put some distance between the us administration and these ratings and, and you and have the us,

you to significant leverage to ensure that the homepage and doesn't go ahead. sadly, i, this regime is incredibly a, generally a books of us to conflict. it does not want to a red skin. and i think imposter messaging over the last 5 months from the united states, even as, as late as 2 days ago, when president biden insinuated the presidency. see, despite the mix up of the countries, the presidency had tech support are closed for a few monetary and aid. we know at the time that that was an issue with these rand, he's not wishing to have 8. and once it does need people out, so they don't have confidence at this point, i would argue that if they what the presence of suspend the treaty, that the united states would actually take that seriously. having said that, egypt says rules and not a very very um, sort of logic to major need policies, decisions, especially under this leadership. and i don't see the cc regime following through

as much as i do believe it is the right policy. most amazing at this point, all of a, if you look of the, of the latest, the provided bush, it seems to be pretty much centered on this deal. but you look at the booze a big so you've got a sense that we've moved beyond the phase of a deal and we're looking for new security arrangements. so was always great. who's going to take over, guys that is going to be a new policy and leadership odyssey, you know, thought it to what kind of, what do you have is this, is this a legitimate thing to happen now, or do you think this is about? but as they themselves would ultimately have to decide in the future, well, certainly the palestinians will have to decide an agree because nothing will have any kind of legitimacy among the people without their consent. but i think, you know, what's, what's taking place so far in terms of discussions has largely come out of the united states to find a way for. ready word, they are kind of grasping at straws here,

bring the policy and authority back. something to that, that exact, have the gulf states that use their best oil well to rebuild. but when it comes to the perspective of those states, herb states, the gulf states, they don't want to be roped into a project of, of rebuilding without some kind of passed away to a permanent piece. because then in the end and they are ripped into kind of the same trap that the pulsing and authority has in the west bank in which they are doing israel's bidding, their policing and governing on behalf of israel. while israel continues to colonize the west bank, you know judy, eyes, jerusalem, and all these kind of things without doing any serious steps for peace. ok, so i think the goals each wary of being complicit and what is real has done and fitting the bill for israel's mess. girl, this guy's been fold. how so? how lovely, although i find i really appreciate it. you're inside looking forward to talking to you and then if you, so thank you and thank you for watching. you can see the program again, any time by visiting our website. i use a 0 dot com for further discussion. go to all facebook page. that's facebook dot

com, forward slash a jane size. so i can also join the conversation on the phone text. how hungry is on a j inside study from the house and my mother and the entire team here and by the, the child does not die from the bombing. he will die from the cold. no clothes, no food, nothing. no diapers were 5 and children in attends of one square metre towards continue without having a hostages right now the expense of the country for texas on october 7th. this government failed miserably mazda some big a survivor of the united states, vittoria's guantanamo,

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october 7th, this government failed miserably. the means righty ami and says gauze as naso hospital off to besieging it for weeks. soldiers have detained people including stuff, the 70 say them, this is out just the are live from dell hall. so coming up more nations kind of as well. not so long to ground defensive on or off off one of the hoffman and people are trying to say the risk of simon continues to rise almost no food trucks, events have gall. so in the last week, at least 6 people killed and 10 injured in the strikes and the russian city event going on bordering you.