it's, i think, is the most difficult question. i've had to answer facing realities, usb, toe in the security council. this is a major stumbling block, is a problem to access it. you hear the story on talk to how does era sally, i shouldn't have recriminations. israel has went up, it strikes on his paula killing civilians and let her know about the groups that won't go unpunished. combines that have. busy on does that, could this exchange escalates into the regional conflicts? this is inside story, the kind of walk into the program. i'm adrian said again, this is randy, ministry has been exchanging fine with the lebanese group, has bullet almost daily since october 7th. his boss says that it's in solidarity,

but it's outlined garza from us and that it will continue as long as as well, bump bots. the strip. at least 200 fighters and 13 soldiers have been killed. but this week is ready, strikes killed, 10 civilians, including children in southern lebanon. his father has promised to retaliate 11 and submitted a complaint to the un security council, both sides, se, then, not looking for all out war. but increasingly, attacks are happening far beyond the border area. so what does each policy want to achieve? and how likely is original conflict? we'll explore all of this without guests and just a moment. but 1st, this report, by my life i'll be able to separate since is, are launched, it's will and cause a full months ago. the armies exchanges with resistance movements in the region have escalated the conflict between these riley ministry and has been the living in bold. it has fled as the group pitch solitaire and see what the, how much against is really aggression that has the near data exchange as

a fi us since october. the 7th had this wednesday was the most volatile, 3 hezbollah fighters and the cheese 10 civilians. we killed in southern living on the groups lead, a promised israel would pay for the general wine on all of us. we all fights again southern never on with our eyes on gaza when the aggression stops against gauze. and when the shooting stops in garza, you will stop the shooting in the self of this is the next day hezbollah fi rockets towards northern israel. however, it is rarely defense minister you of garland says, the country is not looking for full scale conflict. lead me on the planes that are flying and living on sky as we speak of targets and they know to a tech them and how to change the attack from one place to another. we could do a copy paste from gallons a to b roots, but we don't want to go there as well. we'll pay a heavy price and it will be catastrophic to live in on. and his blog that said, for types of techs have displays that she's 85000 people on both sides of the both

of those left behind se they live in constant fear of a strikes every day. these really prove they cannot be trusted. and that no one is safe near them, the targeting civilians to them. there is no difference between military personnel, children and adults. so kind of a sudden says, i wish we heard a loud explosion, but didn't know exactly what happened. i thought maybe rockets were launched from here, but then when the ambulance has started arriving with you, they had been a strong. these riley ministry has been accused of using white fost for us as a weapon and act that's testified as a whole crime. it has also stepped up a tax on has been the operation sites and carried out targeted killings of hezbollah and how much lead is fall from the battlefield raising fee. is that the one garza and bet tools on the lip and buddha will lead to largest regional conflict. but i haven't much of it. i'll just around for inside story.

let's bring it, i guess, for today's discussion from london, a joined by gilbert as ca, who is a professor of development studies and international relations at the university of london. school of oriental and african studies from fe routes were joined by how a job up that award winning journalist of all thoughts of his butler bone with a vengeance from brussels. we're joined by elijah, my dear, who's a ministry of security analyst has covered conflicts in the middle east, including lebanon for more than 35 years or full. welcome to you or eliza. let's start with you. just how dangerous a moment is this for the region, despite all policy saying that they don't want one. could we see israel and his boss? a boy again, it's trinity dangerous because the middle east is dealing with is really prime minister. always hold the to his she wants to remain impala and is that um and even that the call dining oh, those guys,

the pin. i talked to rock syria. what ever keeps him at school to justify who's pregnant and to dismiss and the election in nature. and he's going to the law the will as long as he can and as much as he can. and this is why he is breaking the rules of engagement 11 now. and he is trying to provoke a lot into a lot of the country knowing that has been that wants to establish the veterans. and he is the. yeah, despite all these that tend to commit all these from bachman and commit crimes against civilians, he is insisting and containing the bombardments on that and on and above or insisting that the wrong guys that that is the key of the solution and the trouble of everything and everybody's today, how about do you agree that this is a particularly dangerous moment for the region? how likely is it but it could escalate?

yes, absolutely. i think we are now at the junction where we, we refer to as always, states as a tipping point, because that's where we are. we are looking for. if you had off this, this is on the go 2 months ago. it wasn't as, as it is now, at both sides. we know and see we do not one before. both sides are not one to wage lost a war on each other. both sides however, have red lines. the it has a lot or is what i'm and the escalations. and the last, the escalation, specially from is written in the last week is quite const considerable. and it backs the question as to what they want to achieve from best, what they want their full single the trunk force has been locked into a large scale war, however, has one last thing it lies or she wants. and if we look at both sides, we see the test bullet continues to target smooth tree ma installations or ministry targets. whereas in the case of israel is what it is actually and provoking has

been led by targeting civilian targets. like we've seen the last 3 days that were mothers and children and families that were actually can. so, um, even though the, they, they, he doesn't want to war but like, and i just said, and it is and nothing i was impressed at the moment to continue in a state of war because as long as he is, he will not be ousted. and he will not be facing the criminal charges that he has to face later. so he wants to stay on the seat with like, and i to also said this is the risk of burning the speech and, and, and blowing it out may be out of control. bye bye, bye bye. triggering reached out to for gilbert escrow professor. as you heard that both sides insist that they don't want a war. his bar, however, has vowed to retaliate. for wednesdays strikes this week, is there a danger that the situation could accidentally escalate?

and i think it to be difficult to, to speak to fax it that is given the, the extreme state of preparation. i know where i am the self both sides and they have. ready as a or means of self control. uh, there are some groups other than as well what the rates from what it sounds like. somebody seeing groups into them through the, unless it says, but they are also under control. why has blah blah. so i don't think that it is, i mean, any escalation would be just a matter of accident. if, if it happens, it would be something i would say, the quite deliberate and on these are i decide not on that has the left side i'm. i mean that when you say both sides don't for, don't want to to me to last or. i don't think this is a good for both sides. i'm pretty sure the principal does not want to to

get into a large scale or otherwise they would have done that from the beginning in october . and at the moment when you know the forces of time as well as the intact and the that could have been a joint or both. how much the past below, which was what time this actually wished for at that moment. but the left button and after the experience of 2006, i mean has the, is quite whatever y'all for a new episode of distraction in the country, living and as of today become the, you know, it's on the verge of this. it's an abyss with a condition economically, and that's why i'm from the business side as beloved. doesn't have any incentive and enlarging though i can't say the same also of but isn't right. is what it has been for for quite long explaining that the day will come when day we'd have to set

an account with as much locks. they come to the rate what they regard as some kind of advance possible position of the you're on the, on their laws are in boulder. that's how they look up has the law and, and the, you know, uh, last august. so before it goes before october, 7th, last: oh is the, the present, the ministry of this for the defense, social defense for peters are right. you are the man uh threatened to to turn the to the back to the stone age. uh, when he was visiting the border area and so some positions of life plus the for the electric picking up on. and what he was saying a few minutes ago about the prime minister netanyahu is perhaps a conflict in the most of, of israel and the south of, of lebanon, a with lab, and under as a whole uh, caps, part of a strategy surrounding exiting garza,

the main line for the law for it. why and for human face to make sure that the attention of the what is known as diverted away all different a senior course and know shifting from the, the non 15 the attention from what's happening in guns and all the crimes against humanity and will crimes. and content of jew signed against the for the senior people that is a right not, not a box from the people in the software that and then have accepted to engage. and this will, where has a lot doesn't have really limits of sacrifice is because 1st if a piece room is not stall, then the next button is on there. but secondly, there is a link between the palestinians and the living e bow off. i'm paying adjust schools against injustice because they're also better

treat 11 on the i'll be by, by these raise for the test. the law is worthy to intensify the bombardment equally or bit less because we're talking about an all state that says a classic, an army that is due to the one of the strongest in the middle east. well, that was the narrative before the 7th of october, but the senior resistant, obviously has broke this man. and, and because of that is ryan has the power of destruction. but again, as well the whole so has about destruction and hasn't used all these weapons yet. so at the moment they contain, even if the, some violation from time to time. but what's going to happen next and why all they put a scene in going to be pushed for another extra those. this is where the tension one of the way it gave me on the boat is with laughter and on the a man and

a new lot when they would contribute to the heck is right. because if it is doing is would not be left her nose. right. and i'll come to you in just a moment, but i just want to bring gilbert in. just just remember that i didn't, i'll take you at the question particularly well when i put it to elijah. but do you think that a conflict in, in the north of israel, in southern lebanon, could be part of it is really strategy surrounding exiting gauze that somehow what is it that the living can use in the, in the fact that the is around one to, to avoid a conducting door on both fronts. green the, the intensity of destruction in does, is, is unprecedented as i believe on the now a notice and that would, that would not have been possible without direct us in dollars. but this is the 1st joint us is riley was in fact the 1st floor which did united states completely uh the take spot in uh,

approves the its bose uh and organize them in a bridge without which is right and would not have been able to do that but no, i mean they, so they were at busy destroying gas, which should they said the, the, the, the end of the year 23 as a deadline for the intensive most intensive phase of funding. and as soon as that ended, so from the city, they'll generally they started the escalation on the east side with the assassination of the solid. and not only who is of course, i mean, i figured about who, who lived in the, in the midst of the area is controlled by as well and level. and we had a series of such escalation starting from, from that point. so very clearly from the beginning of that to a is what is considered that since the intensive them being of guys is over as a phase. and they move to, to what they call a lower density war. there they, they,

they can strengthen living on with the, with the repeating what they did then doesn't. that's exactly what they are doing every day. they are threatening of turning the problems as they didn't cost. okay, how do you want to come back on that before i put a direct question to you? yes, i think they are intensifying across the border with lebanon. however, i don't think yet they've started to and then i to the point of reducing it's from unlocked have done and gospel. can they do that in the future? yes, absolutely. they have the power with the, you know, they, they, they have the, the, they have the will, k is where level and doesn't talk about club and on as him, the muse army or has been lives in the resistance has been law and the non state act or, or the mini army so they can inflict damage and would that 11 and will be fair enough to go to that not to see it damaged up. see destroyed like 2006 if it shop comes. of course they went, and the fact of the matter is that for the,

let me use so many lebanese as much as that would pay back. and they're not looking for the back. they've been, they've done that, but to show us where it starts to still cost about that. whereas an, as well as well, it's never been to huge bombardments and they, we got back from her as well as well as able to reach and quite deep into is where it has never used that yet because it's always trying to be restrained. but if, if, if need be, if, if, if it isn't decides to to, and as you know, quote unquote the result of that you was into, you know, the, the stone age. well, yes, loving and can also or has been like an ortho and fix massive damages across is when across the use of i've never seen more in their life and they would be huge that impacted by it. so, um, i think, i think as well as it was, and the dentist always to come back to, to lebanon and has been finalized, or they think they would find them last. that's the last 4. but i don't think they're ready when i say ready, i don't think they want to do it at the same time as the war and gaza is going. so i think, but this escalation, it's, it's still within

a certain joel graphic. it's been within certain rules of, of engagement. they both seem to understand both when and course that the law says they're allowing for these losses. but they don't want to go beyond for the time being this not to say that the wouldn't go beyond later a lebanon is not his father, his paula is not 11. and what are the dangers for his folder here in terms of public opinion in lebanon? if the country is somehow dragged into, into a conflict with, with these rad again and targets in a route, for example, of being hit. why do we are expecting this time from again, from the resort that they spent the beginning, but this is what they would do. and they utilize that rhetoric in order to pressure the us government tools, found a guest or for the population to spec, to look that it's no secret and not been on. you know, there are 2 sides of this equation. there's one side that's totally and rejects, rejects this, even even what's going on now rejects the idea that jumping in should be driving. and so the sort will that as well for that matter is finding the support that the

system is. but then you have another sector which is a huge sector, which are, you know, and we're not just talking about the types of in use or, or those from the software, but also in includes a large sector from the, from, from the noise and from, from the east and from the, from the fission side, that's ok. if you want allies or an alliance and they accept, but this might happen and they will take the brunt of it's not be able to, yes they will, we be. that's what they said that they would have thought they would. i think so. you have my son in law. i think um, he responded to about a few days ago when he had, when he made that last statement. and he said, you know, if, if they were pushed into such a will, where do you have to go into war bank or, or, you know, or, or these rules, all these pressures would have to be set aside. and he would go into this war without actually, um, not without considering anything, but he will do it because he thinks that's the right thing. cuz i've been, i'm usually in this, in the space. there's always sort of a mazda will start to do

a dryly. you put your defensive aside, and you around the, around your, your, your, your other uh, you know, the people that are being shipped or, or whether we're, if, and they will discuss the political disagreements later on if the war is normal and it's not like, i mean, anyone can stop what's coming and no one can stop the fact with lebanon, as it has been, law will have to defend at yes, you say uh, a lot of smoke leveling and loving them as much as well. i know, but there's a lot sector 11 under this has been a lot in the last sector to spell out that there's nothing not so and it is a non states act or in the but, but that's also we need to be very cute. it's because the muse army has never ever been allowed to be recognized as well as, as well in order to defend the country. and this has nothing, no disrespect to the peace army. but the fact of the matter remains that the united states and these big powers have refused projected and block any attempt to um, on blow up his army to such a point where it can actually take on is what if needs be,

this has not happened. so the resistance such as hezbollah and others have, have, have blown into this, and it's become their job to do that. hello. let's move on. i have to elijah to his rails ongoing strikes and southern lebanon amount to war crimes. a it's most it is because it said that against civilians, but particularly when uh uh, injury and the fact that the last time and of up to you just a couple of days ago. this is a direct attack against opinions and is a she and pro vacation the headphone. uh, no deductible has one that is extremely sensitive to the assassination of the kidding or the target kidding of civilians. because these are really nice and especially drowned with hans because if to target, particularly the bachman with a family that is a crime against humanity. because what they thought living civilian also age,

right as being in discriminatory, destroying many houses in the south of never done dining the so that they also knew key old that a moms to crime. that is right, is a custom to, this is not something you when you see what they are doing, engage them what they have done in the last 5 years old and does, and the 2611 because they are an accountable. they can do that, and i would love to add one other point that dangerous thought a, the all, maybe troops on the loop in these folders. and there are these readings of gathering more full says if has one loud response policy as right the has the right to, we kind of get to these really because they are bothering because they are getting the civilians. what happens if these rubies lose $20.00 to $30.00? so is with one of the big rocket, the headphone law. this is a way,

i think that on the kind of today to get a spin over to a lot of war. so we won't, can't really on the edge of the this wednesday, the 3rd of the nation alternates. and you know, to remain in power improvement. people out a handful of by saying whether or not i saw a civilians not and the other another to you. as you write the also suggest, is it good? go to be rude. and this is where the goal can be in the go. but does it un peacekeeping force on the ground in southern lebanon? what's it doing at this time of hyper tension? i mean, if it comp keep the piece what, what is the role that well yeah, uh oh listen, i mean then the face of what is happening. they are just the watching and the reporting. this is not the force that has been able to to, to, to take action for wrong. and besides the one of the issues that are on the

table now and that negotiations led by uh, washington the one hand and thought it some, the other, it was really got to live. and one of the question is the, the future of felt this you in force and especially a deployment of the news army, which they would regard as a, a lower important then then just the, the keeping the so you enforce the doing the job security council resolution 17, a one. what does this mean for that? well, that's the, that's the resolution that was i looked at the end, the week of the 2006 is riley war 11 on and on as well. uh and uh that include the, the, with the role of, of the, of the principal level, which is, uh, north of the town either that or which is something like, uh,

$25.00. so it'd be kilometers from the north of the, off the border. and the claim, without anybody's army, and the united nations forces in that, in that area. but since then this, this agreement as a kind of last, it's a, it's a reality and is a right on the one side has been a system. if it's going to be violating this, i believe was by late thing going since the but, and he's s base and, and taking every kind of actions. and therefore, as the forces have done back and re deployed in the area. and that has led to this explanation between the, between the 2 sites as the, as i mentioned, the is riley defense minister. last august, the visiting the border had the made,

the threat that i mention of these threats are being made. but we know that is, will know, is also preparing the lead. they are taking every kinds of measures for a possible action only by them. i think the key point that the is now holding them back is the fact that the, with the increasing pressure that you have international, the, especially on the issue of stuff on the invasion, the of the front. that is right. and it is a voice to, to, to, to do the, it's, that's wouldn't be the moment for is or what and you know, to, to engage and to another war that's within to have the approval of the piece flushing. so that's the key point here. and i mean that being talks about that, then you know who, but i think that the whole, right, and these are in really much bidding on a come back of the don't have trump to the presidency of the united states. and

that would create for them. the idea is condition they would be the into, in engaging in to a much larger world. that's what i mean, including striking out the wrong last i'm so i'm sorry if it went very type of time, i tried what to put one more question to you. what would be the implications of an escalation for the white a region. then you mentioned that ronald of the earlier what other policies be be drawn in, if so, who, how for track protracted or otherwise would, would have an escalation be, who would, when the uh, the resistance always weighs and be able to buy is always defeated. however, the damage is in every will not be coming to a very critical situation where a lot needs to retaliate against the kidding, but this is another to get and that can, it's been a and something the has below no be left to go. where again, the military in and can be brought, it was can join and it was can join and,

and yemen. what was going to when festival of the senior people over on the back, the k because on the was a 2nd is really losing the odd c, j is on monday, and is there a crown of motor on the head and on anyone? so the resistance would always concern that who didn't know about do these really to all, does it support as even if they are supported by a supervisor like the united states, and all of this find this european community that is not taking any measure against visually. so at the end of the day, yet when he ends up paying the price that the cost is much bigger, the causal by this time the bigger than guy is big at the end up and on a lot. yeah. man. and you, right. and the we must and many thanks indeed to you. oh, that lines your mind. me a holler job a and i go but as calm as always,

thank you for watching. you can see the program again at any time by going to the website, which is an elgin 0. don't com. for further discussion, you're welcome to join us on our facebook page. you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and you can join the conversation on x or handle the a page right inside story for me, every input again. and the same here and though, huh. i'll send you again. the in the history of refugee camp, south of bethlehem walls carry the images of commerce to indian detainees, as my hon. mishaps husband set previously spent a year in administrative detention. she tells us he was arrested again several days are connected, could exceed the 90. we suffered loss because of administrative detention, which would have been easier if you will send since then. we'd know he'd be released after finishing his sentence. walk down any valley here, turn any corner,

and this is what you will likely find. one household after another full of families waiting on word about their loved ones being held without charge. according to the palestinian prisoner society around 3300 promised indians are in this really jails sentence to administrative detention, the highest number in more than 30 years, surrounded by walls full of photos to showcase happier times. these women tried to lighten the mood, but with the uncertainty only deepening, there's little comfort to be found. power defines how wow, we live here, we make the rule, not the people empower, investigate exposure and question the youth and the business of our around the go on out just there on counting. the cost of israel is 1st credit raising down. great . how bleak is the outlook for its economy? commercial real estates in the us as faltering banks as far away as germany of feeling the pain. plus we find out whether a full day work week will boost workers productivity. counting the cost on i will

just say around the hungry and desperate palestinians protests near the roof of crossing against as well as the blockade of aids lies the and my name's site you, this is all just there in life from jo. how also coming up, the international court of justice says the situation in rafa kohls for the judge and implementation of measures, it requested last month. there has to be a temporary cease fire. us president joe biden issues his strongest statement yet on israel's move on. gone on for me. you as president donald.