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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  February 22, 2024 5:30am-6:01am AST

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was never the less unless the international and, and a members all of a sudden his family believe. but it's not just the phone is on trial for journalism is on trial to he did exactly what journalists in publishing. i do all day every day, the bread and butter. and that's exactly what you did. he do it on a grand a scale of them are you see, but it was what was inside that information. the information that expose these cards for his journalist vein kilobytes. so if you look up the gunship that has led to this persecution, the case is also put relations between countries that are normally allies, australia, the u. k. and the united states under huge amounts of strain will slightly lower make us last week 14 to allow julian phones to be released over time through his native australia. if indeed that's what he wants. the majority of australians, regardless of what they think of julia saw a majority, think this has gone on long enough that it must be proved within, you know,
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assuming easy the ecuadorian abc or thought that for the easy bill, my social security prison, people who have no time for julia to sign, this is ridiculous. now. suppose is wait for a decision. the fear is this is essentially a phones is last time. however, there is one avenue available to him, but it's not in the united kingdom, is in strasburg confronts viewer pay and quote of human rights. that is, of course, there for schools rule that all his attempts that appeal have been completely exhausted in the entering mode. we understand from the sandwiches, family members that he is on, well, unable to even watch these proceedings online in belmont prison way, remains under lock and key and maximum security, which is 0 plus the us space company is one step closer to land. the only means intuitive machines announce that is leaving a line to dfcs is now open. seem to be part of it, right? that the cross launched 6 days ago on the space x rocket or part of nice as awesome
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as program which aims to send humans to the moon. and then some of the companies aiming for landing on the new to south pole in less than 24 hours time. meanwhile, off to tumbling from little bit to 13 years. retired europe in climate satellite has finally crush back to us. the rest too short for remote sensing satellite was loans back in 1995 to the temperature of the sea of the land and check the ozone layer and measured the sickness of pay the rice. it also helped mama to natural dissolved as it was photographed from space as it fell back to a landing in the pacific ocean at alaska. it does, it for me to clogged are enjoyed. will be here in house now is more the days do use of the counting the cost, the unique perspective that bombarding the place in $7.00
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a told the palace to use to go to on heard voices. it takes every day citizens going to on speak a little hard to raise the alarm about what's happening because of the death of media attention. the stream on out to 0. the alarm adrian said again, this is counting the cost on al jazeera. you'll ricky looked at the world of business and economics. this rate is rails for us to have a credit rating downgrade, and a negative outlook for the economy to go on casa is straining the nation's finance . most of this week for commercial real estate and the u. s is faltering beyond folding crisis. this isn't regional banks as far away as japan and germany plus
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nations across the world of testing a full day work week. that doesn't really increase productivity and improve work life balance. the massive ministry spending a drop in revenues and a depleted workforce. israel is borrowing heavily to fund it will on gaza that it's now and tractor 1. 1 of it's why this budget deficits this century worried about the fiscal and political risks. moody's as low as wells credit racing for the 1st time. now that will likely make it more expensive for the nation to borrow money. the agencies also full cost of negative outlook for the economy, opening the door for a further downgrade, as well as finance minister slammed the decision as a political manifesto. but is it really challenges reports from occupied east jerusalem? within a stone's throw of jerusalem's old city, the jerusalem hotel has in 2 or 3 good times and bad since the 1940s. it's old. well,
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the palestinian chum appeals to the tourist who usually flocked to experience this ancient cities unique history. yet since october, the 7th, most rooms have lain empty, is cancellations, rolled in and demands plummeted. we immediately lost 50 percent and as time passes, losing more now we are running at 30 percent of what we used to have before the end of the kind of situation continues. it might be kind of even even worse, right? it is fall from the only one to have noticed that the war is bad for business here . so last we can move to is one of the 3 international credit. racing agencies downgraded is rails credit rating from a one to 8 to now that still invested great is no junk. but it shows the strain that this voice putting on is ralph economy justifying the move, moody sites, the ongoing military conflicts with how much it's off them off and why the consequences materially res,
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political risk for israel as well as we can. it's executive and legislative institutions, and it's fiscal strength for the foreseeable future. israel has never experience writing down grades before the moodies decision was a double whammy, not just a reduced rating, but a negative outlook to which means another downgrade could be coming. is around the central bank estimates the will cost at $69000000000.00 i've 82023220. 25. borrowing is going up to the a record levels. the countries 2024 budget comes with a deficit of 6.6 percent of g. d p only the co video of 2020 was higher. still the market response sofa is being told her in the interest rate for these really bones have increased. ok, even before the rating we're going down. and this is netra. but isabel, because it's a bit industrially very, very strong country. the fundamentals themselves haven't been hurt much, far right,
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financed minutes have bits it out. smart, rich slammed. moody's downright is politicized. prime minister benjamin netanyahu insists is roused, credit, racing will bounce back with the was and but no one knows when that will be or what will follow to a better time. some invest is like riots, tourist might choose to stay away, roll retrans, houses, era for counting the cost occupied east jerusalem. joining us not from london, danielle, bang, keep that l is associate professor of finance at queen mary university of london. one, welcome to dante, what do you make of this decision by movies to downgrade is really officials the thing that is not consistent with metro economical, fiscal figures to the primary, the primary reasons why moody dominated the uh, these really uh, these are 80 uh ranking is due to political risks and you're wanting to cut rates, which are likely to persist even after the conflict ends up. so the piece of
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situation is projected to be the to do it. i think uh, in fact the, the god bless the how, the, how the call to goes. so what are the, the financial repercussions of moody's decision, especially on invest as well as the investment grade. so usually you'll see a substantial increase in interest rates when, when, you know, gets, gets out of the investment straight investment, grades, and ranges. uh, so certainly the borrowing costs will increase but not dramatically. but really what is most easiest to pronounce that if the fiscal situation, the, the, the budget, the budget is such that the setup 6.6 percent the g d p moving forward. and this is compared to a 2.5 percent. the was projected to be pre conflict. so is really the fiscal situation, and that includes the borrowing that the worries bodies then come and, and the market street. you say that the borrowing costs are going to rise, but not dramatically, but they'll be a drag on the economy went the,
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especially if the war goes on is as well. a risk of default in any way. no default the think is a stretch. but certainly if he's got that the nation, the, the direct uh, and then got a cost is being estimated by the bank reserve to be around 13 percent of the gdp. that's a huge cost. and it's going to definitely take control on the economy moving forward . in fact, mode is talks about persistent risks that are going to drive the economy. uh well before what? even after the conflict of us, we hood is really the government officials of, of to food bodies downgrade, but all of the credit ratings agency is going to follow suit. oh, that's usually the case, but it's not like event uh, really depends. uh typically does these raping agency, they have similar models, the motto. so that is the, is that you know, that i likely that's, that they audibly follow, but it's not necessarily give them the as really federation of business organizations and the tennessee based micro cent,
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for political economics of joint plate, full cost of the war is going to contribute to the pleasure of what some $30000.00 small and medium sized businesses and in various sectors of do you think that's going to be increasing internal pressure on the government to, to, to sort this out to the end. this will as businesses go, boss, people lose that jobs, their incomes definitely, that wouldn't be internet price. or any fact if you look at the modest decision a lot of the political risk is, is actually what is going to be of the government up to the complex. and that's possible clear. uh, so definitely that would be into the pressure bar. you know, if you look at the pools, this seems to be that, you know, huge support from the population to devote out for the moment. so i'm not seeing the pressure for the foreseeable future as a key factor here. first of all, what's your end? anytime soon, how quickly what as well as economy recover in the past, it's recovered,
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but it's relied heavily on it's on its tech sector, but that has taken a hit of lights to absolutely absolutely autumn is to be seen how the conflict ends when the conflict ends and under which single senses, because there's always a chance that there's going to be escalation up north with the has the law these, what was the, you know, the, it didn't is always a non 0 trust. there's gonna be a regional conflict. so as far so clear how the economy kind of call the ethical but and how so all of those are you the seventy's, which is part of the reason why mode is gave gave a down great. what are you making for language that most easiest as well it's, it's highlights of the lack of, of a long term solution to, to the war. and it specifically emphasized these where the governments rejection of diplomatic proposal spearheaded by a, by the us for dealing with the, the, off them off of the what i mean, what do you make of, of, of effective mist booties as being that political,
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if you like. and it's in its statement i don't see that as a political statement. i see that as you know, saves me based on facts and political risk plays a huge role for the economy. i mean that's, that's so for everyone, and especially if you are in the, in a conflict. so it's not, it's not a political statement is really just stating the fact that these huge political risk, that it's going to take a full on the economy for a variety of reasons that acting on that i. and that seems to be a little way out. so i don't see that as political statement is, is just stating facts as far as i'm concerned, the countries dealing at the moment with a depletion workforce to farm workers have left us define on palestinian work is made. it's costing a heck of a lot just to keep things taking a long at the moment. economy wise, isn't it? absolutely. if you look at the government, deb rachel is speaking, it's 67 percent. and that was, you know, compared to 55 percent projected before. so we're really talking about 1215 percent
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of the gdp into years. so that's the huge cost and is as soon as possible, clear how that can recover from this. certainly in the short term. uh, even assuming that the conflict, the conflict ends and so good to talk to you professor many thanks to the value for being with us on, not counting the cost. thanks for having me. well, this real sage relentless bombing and ground operations of offended old man of life in gaza. the international monetary fund warmest of the palestinian economy is facing a green few chips. the organization says the economic activity and the strip has dropped 80 percent from october through december. and it's the document of terry and situation unlimited deliveries and the occupied westbank is in sped eva activity that is down some 22 percent. a number of factors are contributing to this, including israel's withdrawal of what permits of the withholding of palestinian tax revenues. payroll fast food john mcdonald says that it's missed its course of the sales target for the 1st time in any 4 years. the company's blaming the decline on
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israel is war in gaza at a boy called by customers in the middle east sales growth in the region. china and india felt fall short of expectations reaching only not point 7 percent of the us brands, including starbucks and k. f c, it also slash the annual sales full cost of the now the time that it may be over, but remote workers haven't fully returned to offices buildings across the u. s. a n t and the value of commercial real estate is fully well borrowing costs increasing . that's causing problems for landlords who rely heavily on debt. now that lenders, the banks of worried about the impact of bad loans on the balance sheets, the past week is bought, concerns of amounting losses on lending to the commercial property. set up a revived memories of last year's banking crisis. when 3 american regional lenders collapsed. but how much of banks in other countries, a risk?
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let's explain it all in the us, banks have approximately $2.00 trillion dollars in commercial real estate loans out . according to goldman sachs, small and mid sized banks are responsible for around 80 percent of these loans. analysts say that building $2.00 trillion dollars of the debt is due to mature in the next 5 years. and that's raising concerns about the banks ability to recruit funds. so last week, new york community bank cool reported a unexpected loss of $252000000.00 in the 4th quarter. that's a significant down to from its performance in 2022. but the crisis isn't confined just to the us banks in japan and switzerland a feeling the strain. well, real estate land up p d b in germany says that it's preparing for the most severe dropping commercial property values. in 15 years. the situation embarrassed the 2008 financial crisis
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and there are concerns, but it could spiral out of control. but us officials say the problem is manageable and i hope and believe it will not end up being a systemic risk because of the banking system. the exposure of the largest banks is, is quite low, but there may be smaller banks that are stressed by these developments. joining us not from london, which i think i'll richard, is a senior investment analyst avalon, the based financial institution ambrose, the capital. good time you with this richard. so are we in a crisis or not? right now, almost a year ago, we saw the collapse of s b, b is, is this a different situation? it is much different. the regulators have been marched cover the past year. and it's regarding the medium sized bank, if you'd call them your commercial bank, this service go back to the medium sized bank with assets all over 100 billions. and this is one of the reasons for the crisis of confidence and assets to take
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measures to sharp is capital. and that helps to split the investors along with the unexpected loss. but i would say that while we need to monitor the exposures of commercial banks to commercial real estate, particularly in the large cities, we're not nearly a point where we should be protecting a crisis dressing yet certainly nothing like last year. okay, but is it a problem with a short term fix or is this something that's going to keep bubbling away, nagging away for some time, yet it will continue powerfully because the us banking system is already on consolidated. there are course, the top 4 or 5 banks which dominate the country system. but there are literally hundreds of large regional community bank spread trapped ignited states where americans on the role just because of the nature of the banking bottles, their assets being very large relative to the capital. and that's a confidence crisis occurred as the deposits if we write quickly by today,
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i think the regulators have done a good job of preventing wide scale panic, which could have happened after the so what kind of belly bank crisis of last year with shop quite on timely and started with the credit suisse prices. yeah. as you say, well banking these days. i mean it is, it's banking is a global affair that they're all interconnected. as we said, there are banks in japan, in switzerland, in germany. that, that of that of feeling the strain but you, you say that there's no risk of contagion. you don't think this isn't that apply to control a reckless. this is one of the blessings on disguise. if we could say this about the troubles for the new york and that it's set while very large, it's very heavily connected to the new york police on market. but it's not very involved in the also bias market and it's not connected to naturally or internationally. by contrast to the bank, such as bank of america is a very broad natural presence because have brought it to
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a natural presence. so if there were this type of unexpected loss of more significant rise and expectations of all the losses that a purchase internet internationally connected, i think we would have to be very, we're not in this case, at least not yet. or i do interest rates, play any pos and, and what, and what's happening right now to some extent. but it's much different. last year, the affective interest rates for us to cause bosses on the polio and banks such as silicon valley bank or s b, b, or as are present. it is more of a traditional impact. the rising interest rates, meaning it's more difficult for the bars to a back of loans, but i would also stress that data losses on n y c, b colors have been quite small. by contrast, the warning about the possibility of large choices in the future should investors be worried about about what's happening right now?
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i don't think trust yet, largely because the market concerned has been limited to one thing. i think in a time like this investment would be for an over the balance sheets of every bank and it's pampered. and to the extent that this is probably a underwriting agency, sometimes as well, and they haven't found any polls elsewhere. in addition, it's real estate and what has become for the, a commercial real estate buffalo. so the banks and non gay and national institutions, they do seem to be pockets of risk, but they largely tend to be in the central business district of the major cities. and while that doesn't work for them, the, the risk that seems to be at the levels which should encourage investors to be worth more broadly in the us, but lower the rest of the world. but i would also that, that there are these risk elsewhere which link type research is leaving germany.
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and it's possible that those risks all the way to contagion, although i don't think we're there yet either. okay, richard, stay with the 2nd. i just want to ask you a question about something related but completely different. really? 16 percent of american valencia was lived with parents in 2022. now that trans, it's been on the rise for the past 2 decades. one of the reasons not to move out is finding rent a lot more expensive, but it was a few years ago. but the us still lacks far behind countries like malta, where 70 percent of adults younger than $35.00. still live at home with the parents, at least they did in 2022. so richard, why millennial was staying at home and not moving out a how is that going to impact the property market that it will have a material impact over the lot of trauma. as you said in my youngest countries is quite traditional. it's also quite traditional southern europe for children to live with the parents for quite a long time. i think it will have a big impact on a change and the relationship model and how the economy falls over time in terms of
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the house for me and the rest of this friday and things like that. i think though it is inevitable, those prices have risen overtime and interest rates as well when interest rates were lower than when it was rifle to the point has is but with the combination, both of my interest rates in house and guys it's just become impossible. but over time they will reach us, they will raise their savings and they will be able to. ready join the house and landeros. it's called the new k. i think it's for the most part, just a matter of investment. richard, it's been raining, good to talk to you on counting the cost. many thanks. indeed for being with us. i can not bosses want their employees to walk out of course somewhere, cuz they they can actually achieve more by working spots. but how about working fuel days with the same workload and getting paid the same salary? well, advocates of the full day work weeks a could increase work of productivity and improve work life balance. that principle has been put to the test in different countries around the world. germany,
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for example, is the latest nation to explore it in an experiment that will last for 6 months. the country already has one of the shortest average working weeks in europe. but companies have been struggling with the shortage of skilled labor of the nations of embrace the idea with belgium, the 1st country in europe to legislate for a 4 day week. joining us from oakland and usually alexandra bonds. he's the founder of the full day week global, which is conducting the largest ever trials in different countries, including the u. k, to us south africa, and germany godaddy with a center. so is the full day working week, the future of what, what are the advantages of it? a good evening, adrian. well yes, i think the advantages appointments generally, not only do you get an improvement in productivity in the trial in america, revenues increase by about 30 percent across the co. that was going to the truck. but critically, you also get benefits the flow for him to the employees. yeah,
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so with my boss, but actually translates to actually the connection with the company engaged in schools for example, seem to go up about 20 percent on average. and companies that introduced to reduce that last week. okay, everything has a balance. so i bo, critics argue that it creates more stress. it impacts creativity. it's difficult to measure productivity, and it's not a clickable to, to all industries a comp it on every right. what do you make of us to, i wish i had a dollar where everybody said, well, you know, it impacts productivity. the answer is most companies don't measure productivity is what they do is they use the times of, sorry for productivity at the hospital proposition is i thing we call the 100 a 100 percent 80 percent time providing we get 100 percent productivity. and that also extends to customer service. now what we see on average
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is companies that excuse fits, that productivity overall goes off about $0.25. we also find teen look, creativity schools go stress levels markedly. draw a match primarily because people are learning how to look smart rather than just land sick leave andrew costa, joe, but economy something like $28000000000.20. a does a 4 day working weekend practically the tool. absolutely it does. we see again across all the products, it's been quite consistent. it from south africa to the us to the u. k. it was friday. the city actually draw spine top in some instances, up to 60 percent. so it's not was translated into the government, the economy, you know, there is a 14000000000 your boost the economy of it's
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a similar statistic and date in the united states. so what we see is the people's stall play taking cloud sick days. now some of that because the sick, the, some of that of course is that doing home actually on the excuses. we're sick. all right? so when you can substitute that for planned the next, if you makes a big difference without all right, productivity as you say, is likely to go up or, or that's what they experiment show. does that mean that the, the bottom line is affected to the prophets rise in line? absolutely, in us, we find in our own company, we've now been doing this for about 6 years. but we are twice as productive on the capital basis in terms of revenue. as on nearest competitor, it does make a difference. i mean is extremely sustained and values regardless of the industry that you are. and presumably, andrew, all of this mean means that the big the economy overall is much more dynamic.
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absolutely, because if you think about it, it's not just the economy, just the output, which you're guessing what the trip. but you might actually go time to do cycle more time to upscale. use a very critical become the countries that are thinking about how they react to be impact today. not. i'm actually you get back to family to each more time spent. children, the whole service flows through to the education while we see this is something where every when you start to focus on the length of time and productivity, rather than just sticking with a 5 day week, which is a construct. oh, you know, the, uh, the 20th century repetitive model actually strict fascination andrew manufacturing . they've really enjoyed that. thanks for being with us on counting the cost. thank
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you. and that's our show for this week. if you would like to comment on anything that you've seen, you can get in touch with us. i'm at a synagogue on x. try to remember to use the hash tag h a c t c. when you to contact us, you could also drop us a line caution. the cost of i'll just say or don't that is our email address. as always, most people for you online at out is there a dot com slash dtc. that takes you straight to a page and day you'll find individual reports, links at a time episode seems to catch up. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm adrian instead of going to the whole team here at the thanks for being with us. the news on al jazeera is next. if a child does not die from the landing, he will die from the cold. no clothes, no food, nothing. no diapers were 5 in children in attends of one square metre towards
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without having a hostages right now the expense for the government of the country for texas on october 7th, this government failed miserably. and on the federal tax upfront takes on the big issue. that is a context to what is happening now. it says it's cool thanks. question or professional about 5 unflinching questions. rigorous, the bank that he added to today is that another cleansing is taking place. augusta . nothing goes into gauze or without us of permission. nothing leads, profit without result, permission to allow me to push back for a moment, demanding of these fires, demanding an end to the root causes of all of this violence upfront without 0 frank assessments. here's essentially delaying the democratic process. the current government knows not being to win the index sense, say they want to buy time using fix political debate. ok. some of them are struggling. that's give them some cash. but let's look at the reality. 80 percent
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of these farming subsidies are going to the big voice informed opinions and we don't live in a postcolonial work. and we live in the neo colonial one and gaza is resisting that termination inside story. on al jazeera, the searching through the rubble in the rough uh, a family home is one of the israel's overnight targets free people listen to the other ones are in jordan, this is out as they are a life. and so, and so coming out a father is this man's home in russia was bombed his daughter life and in laws to video images of the optim off him and his radio conductors with our oldest stuff and their families to people looking plus definitely up to 40 i went to the forest
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to look for food for my children a few days ago i met find it, so took my supplies and they reached me.

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