to as a principal presenter as a correspondence with the brakes. and the story wants to hear from those people who was normally not get that voice this heard on the international news channels. one language, obviously proud all was when we covered the, the fullness quake of 2015 at the terrible natural this, that's the story that needed to be told from the hall of the affected area to be then to tell the people story. it was very important at the time a tens of thousands that on both sides and millions of ukrainians forced from the country as a rule and says it's the g a. we examine what marshall hasn't changed since it's full scale invasion. the header that welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle:

it's the 2nd anniversary of the beginning of the bloodiest conflict in europe since wells will to tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides, have been killed. thousands of civilians, a dead, a millions of ukrainians. i've been forced out of the bottom down towns and cities, and there's little sign of an end in sight. russian president vladimir putin remains defiant, saying they'll be no peace until his country is goes a met. ukraine is again appealing for more donations to replace dwindling supplies of munition. the you signed off on his latest package with $54000000000.00 earlier this month. but the us congress cannot agree on one. it is election yet in the us, on republicans arguing over whether to extends the military lifeline. the delay could put more pressure on the time. so is this a rule that can be one who is benefiting and why might put in set his sights? next, we'll get to our guest in just a moment, but 1st this report from nora con to use of the war in ukraine

began. both areas remain under russian bombardment. russian forces art, phone thing in the southern region of her phone. and that's when you did tax on odessa, you claims lifeline. the green exports, the russian forces also kept it the eastern city of, of div carlos week. the biggest game since the long and bloody bass with football moods last may, the i with military tree pulling under russian control. many question, what is the game? the president vladimir putin. on february 24th 2022 russian tanks rolled in to ukraine but failed to capture the capital. since then, pollutant has repeatedly said he doesn't want to occupies ukraine. thought what he initially described as a special ministry operation, became a full scale war international allies and they,

to back to training president logging. is there lensky? providing billions of dollars worth of support and weaponry. the us, the european union person and other allies that mostly targeted russian money with close to $17000.00 sanctions. i'm the pricing of around health of rushes, foreign currency results. but to team is making clear every day, every hour as we have for us right now, that he does not want to negotiate peace. he wants to complete his conquests. he has said it over and over again, bought the us president joe biden is struggling to convince congress to post a $95000000000.00 for an a package that includes funding for ukraine. and it's dwindling. munitions stokes 20 to the house of representatives is stalling. the legislation you crave fee is putting will use

a delay to his advantage. militarization from my understanding. it doesn't require capturing the entire territory of ukraine rather than taking territory quickly. it's better to grind the ukranian troops of this question whether there's a stalemate on the battlefields. this was ukraine before the war. then russian gains by november 2022, but also areas held. we captured by ukraine. by this month, not much had changed, but the death toll increases by the day already opened. 10000 civilians killed along with more than half a 1000000 military casualties on both sides. and more than 6000000 ukrainian refugees, old questioning, how much longer will the wolf grind on laura com for the inside story?

i'll just say around the. well, that's bringing, i guess now, and in moscow people folk. and how is the defense list and form a cold list for the russian that newspaper, the via gazette, time from england, the 2nd largest city, stefan wolf, is a professor of international security at the university of fleming. and she's usually in the ukrainian port of odessa box. joining us today from london is kind of celeste, security studies program director at the non governmental unless call center ukrainian prism of a boom. welcome to all of you. how does today mark's not that grim milestone for the people of ukraine? how is the 2nd of us we have the full scale invasion being recognized that and ukraine and what's the mood amongst people? the a you know, they move very complicated to be guessing the want, how do you have the determination of the people to continue or defend things they

are allowed to fighting for their freedom and serenity. as we finally realized, that is the 2nd ceiling, the understanding that these were, is not a short war. and that unfortunately the demands from the kremlin are becoming just more and more so realistic. and the search feeling is the southern tiredness last one is because do leave 2 years out of the cost of stress onto the cost of stress on to the cost on to shelling. but these tar and this is all time. this one you will lane insane or a kind of do anything that is partially also psychological. tired is because you kind of to understand how such your work. crimes can happen in the meat of europe in the 21st century. and you are just trying to find the 2nd breeze, how to continue fighting. that's one who just don't have all the choice. and the base understanding of the existential work is something what the whole country sharing doesn't matter, which i'll pull it to sharon or which i told you you are supporting. and how is

today being marked in ukraine. honda, a darren, definitely. first of all, the set commemorations that is calibration, of all those civilians and military killed during these 2 years. um, these numbers are quite high. at the same time, we have quite a little higher level delegation arriving to keep including the head of the european commission. now we have the either shape of a tally of canada or belgium of several other countries. so that is a demonstration of the support. but as you can see, that is the 1st of all vehicle ration of those who died. and there is discussions call to unites our efforts how to united the efforts of those countries understand what does mean the rules based order and the human rights and the value of the live, how to united their efforts to continue the fight. probably the russian defense minister is visiting forces in ukraine. what's more, all like that, especially on the front lines in these winter months where there's very little

movements just and also facing a well there's a way of doing dependent reporting from the freshman friend line. uh, officially it said that everything is fine and there is, i would say, a free show you for yeah. after the capture of, of the day of the russian forces are advancing and the world's best thing for special operation is progressing a satisfactory of their of course, a problems and uh uh, troops did not get their, their money and the funds of fighters on the front line have been there for a long time, so stuff survive, and they down or maps and home. they're based in big numbers. there's no good reputation and that's of course, a problem for them around. but the time being the russian forces are fighting,

successfully placed on the face of it. uh, russian soldiers are tenacious. oh, as the premiums are 2 and verify this continuing. so if there are problems with morale, they are not critical right now at all. the russians have just recently taken a few, as you mentioned a do you have a back in may also backwoods. how much of a hollow victory is this though, for russia? because both of these cities have been absolutely decimated by the fighting. and it took a long, long time to overcome them to well, let's just start the war of attrition. that's happening there for the last, more or more or most for more than a year already. when the overall front line doesn't change much, they are pitched battles where one side with the hopes that the other is going to

begin to break up, that them are out of those that their phone, the receiving end and those for retreating right now to the premiums of the morality opinion troops will snap, under their existence, will begin to disintegrate. that's not happening. so these are battles not so much for the particular city, though i did, it is important because it's basically the suburbs of the big city. and then that's the capital of the done boss and pushing the opinion forces away from the the nets is important, because if they were just simply in the suburbs, up to this is mostly right now, treated as a propaganda boost for the upcoming presidential election next month. the pressure is on the winning side of president bush. it is now much appearing in public and actually projecting at the the feeling of

victory, and that everything is going in the right direction. so that's making makes this better for, again, important psychologically. and we're doing for a stephan pedal mentioned that war of attrition. if we just bring up again on our screens, the map of ukraine and rushes advances on the front line. but in the east we can see that the frontline, the has moved very, very less. so the games a small would you say at this point the boy is as a stalemate and i think it has been, it is still made for quite some time. i mean, there was the initial russian gain on the months of good was that was followed by the ukraine and pushed back into some of the n g o one to 2022 bucks. and then basically over the cost of 15 months, we have seen very, very little. yes um,

as part of just set them in default of thieves con is on a propaganda take you to a few months of for the crime scene. but it had shifted the font lines maybe 530400 or 500 readings. so as and in that sense for the problem right now, i think for both sides is that, is it no cost involved in terms of my child in terms of casualties on both sides or sustained basic a form just consolidating the phone line. so the, all the romans, how did this, what of state is this description of stalemate has been use quite a lot with saying it appear in quite a lot when it comes to now describing the situation in ukraine. is this what you agree with when it comes to describing the state of the war is probably not. and one of the reasons is that why don't you speak about the war of attrition?

oh boy, the soul makes you and can only so some parts of the land operations for from the day. one of these war was the symmetric hole and definitely understandable that russians had a more forces on the ground. so were there that it was possible to have the active defend cell from both sides. however, if you move to the situation, even off to the new here, russia lost uh additional mega shapes. and that's comparing that to crane almost doesn't have the navy now after the initial day. so the, we're also within the last week, russia last night in 4 to and jeff, including the 50th on the 18th to they had only 3 or 4 for the whole russian situation there over 2 minus 2 of them. we also see that while she's not controlling the black c anymore, they are losing and low to able to move in cream came that is the cheapest one region of the south and from and the amount of div call that's quite an interesting, you know, quite well describe it as the success or at least felt with the russian need

presented. but just imagine russians try to catch you. come sure the see to you for 10 here since 2014, the last battle happened for approximately 45 months. as of the intensity of a fighting, the town was just the 1000 people and rusher received into the approximately. so to solve those for capturing these small town, if one solve them and they needed only by completely destroying the cd, so a beef as a tale doesn't exist anymore. it's not even the ruined since most the ashes over there. can you name something like this as the successful operation of the strong arm forces? definitely, again though, here i would absolutely agree that was war for the media consumption before the presidential elections in russia. that's why when you ask, is it the stone made definitely to not because the fighting discount, putting wherever will we see a change of the tactics and strategy on the routes to see the real changes all the

situation. i expect he has a bed. why sprinkler will have a search and every shop link on the force has made the change of the strategy because of the new commander of the premium armed forces and to the bead of the new . what can you to expect? think of the big changes of the big bottles. that's something that we will see are probably by the made of spray. but how does the reality as you go down, let's say russia out ways, ukraine, when it comes to artillery, i mean, nation by $5.00 to $1.00 and new ukraine is running low on munition supplies from the us looking shaky. so how does the, how does the coming in look when you're looking at it in terms of how you can make advances on the battlefield? or i sure we need to divide it into 2 questions. first of all, the russian capability is because, so yes, they can use current k 5 times more, but you also can see how much they can produce and they're using the word that

would be a losing. so the question where the they are producing. so the question is, where would they be sustainable in these and we already have lost, here are the periods. well, the shelling for the day from the ukranian and russian side was absolutely the same . then when we had to dispose of delivery on demolition to your brain since november, definitely to russia again managed to culture and to have the upper hand. but that's why you create and use more of the goals. that's why we use the cesar o's. so we're trying to use the different types of the welfare tax, you know, just showing again the chalet. uh, the international support is extremely important for ukraine. and here it is not only the united states let some cold of europe and union countries really increase their support in emanation and pledges for the more in the nation since autumn when they realize that to create and can become just a call stage of the domestic policy is in the united states, but fewer results of the question of partnership that is important. why should

received the weapons from north korea and from iran to congress under the essential is to congress and the black face of ever seeing. but the deliver of, for example, knows korea 1000000 all of the shelves to the russian federation. even the democratic world is not able to support ukraine in the same way. it's not just about flushing your brain. this also demonstration the weaknesses, for example, for the asia pacific partner. so for waiting and looking home, they will add to in case then you aggression will happened there for example. so that is definitely the time now why a lot of solutions for you to make decisions holiday would like to see themselves and their supports to your prey. so we would love to have these phones as what we have a nice windsor and some of the front lines. so that's definitely you has made significant effort to keep up weapons in a deliveries to the ukraine. but to most extent, kind of plugs a gap that's currently being left by the us. in the small question of time,

i would say that it's a question of capability that has been significant couch we investment in of the defense industrial base in europe. so german company is my client, my telephone song. i have seen massive new government contracts, but it will take some time for the europeans to actually accept the rate of production policy. that was a plan shop by the countries to deliver 1000000 shows a junior queen by the end of small launch. and that i think buying for, for all intents and purposes, the not to feedback. but this doesn't mean that the shelves are not eventually materialized, but it will take time to do the real challenge. now, as for your crying, just basic may be able to survive until does it increase blood trace of gold will flow into the country again, that's for us. one of the rules, one thing time for you, raise your credit, but the germany direct. so that said that there is a sense of urgency without

a sense of action. what do you make of that stuff on as well? they be, be sort of the same, right? don't uh that you have the phone on your p and you just want me to send you american. read us off that be our fax on the last 2 years. so that would be as much support staff as needed for as long as it just needed to for your crate. but if that doesn't go to your uh, empty words, then the end up in a situation, are you crazy? not because it doesn't have the manpower cannot defend to the city like of the of costs, but so gimme a call. the deluxe the uh, um, an additional uh, the equipment or just a recall washing the trucks on. and i think that's a long term potentially going to be a real problem. and the question that actually is no need to be on no longer talking about your crime,

finding it difficult to join them. but really the questions i'll be jawad extends the rest can actually be able to claim no jewish. the whole problem if we look at the flow of weapons and ammunition from the russian side, is it sustainable? given the shoes, number of sanctions that have been placed on the russian government and the russian economy also, sanctions on north korean and sees that are deemed to be involved in sales or of course sanctions on iran. how long kind of rushes to stay in the will. a logo in the presence level of facilities pressure tends to stay in the war and there's not only production has been boosted. so not to the extent that was during the cold war capabilities when the soviet union could really mobilize its industry to me for increased production of armaments and nations.

which even increased that was very high. that the system has been lost to a large extent, but still there's enough, there still are a reserves where from the cold war of some different nations being used. so yes, russia can sustain their problems with producing a new on that capabilities which the west can produce. and can send the ukraine if it does, doesn't do that. in most many cases. russia defense industry attached to the cold war for the 30 years, the fast since the end of the cold war has been using western materials, special materials, special steals, and prospects, and trying to components in producing weapons. especially hard to. and

that's right now bit of a problem though, there are different operations to small go in this stuff. there are reserves, but again, there are problems, especially in the hard to and the production. but basically yes, rush, it can continue on the present face. that brings right now i optimism to the cram when they're talking about possible uh forward mode was that the rest of the boats and said that this is a russian safety. ready that was followed up by his for a former prime minister on that one time president mentioned did, yes. then there's the trans, mr. republic pro russian write down sandwich between ukraine and mount though, where there's a small russian garrison actually. so there may be ideas of trying to make a push in this out as well, that materialize or not, or that will have to see when the summer fighting season comes. as you mentioned

before, honda lensky replaced his top. come on the earlier this month. i revealed mom is because of the national harry for many given that he led this to yeah. battle against rushes outright. invasion with the new guy in place is ukraine expecting to see? 2020 full b the? yes, it goes on the offensive. so let's see, we're waiting now for the uh, clear strategy if you would have a definitely a very popular call from general source k opportunity to have a sound the baseline being commanding of the infantry of the land forces. so she's been a, during these 2 years, also in the front line, who's behind the operations to break the tube on the heart of regions. so that's not a, that she will have a significant change of the tactics that we're having is still the same approach or for cutting,

crushing supplies and having both active defense and the symmetrical welfare again structure. and it goes with the sense that if we kind of our number in terms of a mediation or personal, we need to make it to all for the russian situation more difficult to 5, not longer with the external sanctions this limits. but as we see, there are too many spheres where we need the sensors to really limits russian capabilities, but also by targeting via production. placing the storage facilities, for example, based nights it was the strike withdrawals against the, the metallurgical plant. uh, in the uh, in the, this, and that is approximately 20 percent of russian production of the steel steel imports and for the adoption of the different type of the emanation. so all of these tried the to see the a very large, the oil deploy and others, that's also part of the premium tax you. how to i symmetrical counter the limits russian capabilities on the ground to have supply for the for so so. okay,

right. so from what options are still available to help ukraine? what are we likely to see this year from the world? i think of basically 2 different scenarios that are, can see, want us to the rest. finally, purchase money, small so, so going to off really dental's donald, that's all for your client and that phones. so how do i it's just indicated, but also nature had too much more sophisticated drawn range weapons to enable ukraine to which is trying to be in july shaw and be able to disrupt production capabilities disrupt supplies, and really doing that. not in a highly targeted uh fashion. in the end, i think the, the big question is it's not going to be necessarily events. your client will be able to, to change a hoshal on the battlefield such but it's considered to be made on the

continuation of the wall just to cost of washer so that eventually we're gonna get a to a settlement that will bring adjusted the stable piece of when you're cranks, and that's the 2nd scenario. and that's the one that, that i'm more worried about at the moment. is that the about something or just get this kind of list on the support and face, you know, potentially have uh, president trump of attorney for the white house and then you know, all the uncertainty and i'm protected and she's in that. right? and that's what i actually mean that uh, the west uh, west on support to the extent that be i've certainly seen that in 2022 lynch tri county suites. so something not to continue a problem. just the last a question to you in the last minute that we have is putin a tool interested in a supplement to the ukraine?

oh, yes, of course. i mean it's understood that they're actually taking over over your brain is not free with possible both sides, right. i hope to break this down, make them go mo bile, maybe next summer. well, they are not. is it's a to see it's not going possible to predict, but some kind of cease fire based on the so called free and the scenario as the fire, more or less on the present buying of control seems to me quite an option. but okay, so now once we do it right before that, alright, we will leave it the for the moment. many thanks to all our guest today for a very interesting discussion. pedophile going to stuff on move and how to celeste and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting a website that's out. is there a dot com for further discussion? do you guys? well facebook page that is facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. if it

wasn't during the conversation on x all homeless as a j inside story. from me laura kyle, i'm the whole team here. bye for now, the to leave off cheers solutions that gives us no hope for future that we have to find creative solutions. not just turn our backs. i don't think that has a number. think about it as a person yourself and that person's shoes. so as you can see for this is my us, my life, or at least in my life, those dentures. we want, we want the education reward because the women in my country and that's suite one. we are not denies all of who we are human beings and deserves to be treated equally . we are walking in their footsteps,

our ancestors whatever has been done before, can be done as long as a human being is doing it. you just have to keep pushing because no one else can see. the vision is clear what constitutes exempt. so we just talked, you were saying, i want you to start with just the fact runs through what happened as independent. we won't be, we want the education. i want to we don't have lead them in the policy i'm. it's asking me to get 50 percent representation in the constituent assembly here and accountability and benefits. no intelligent service the claimant reports with that i should just trust the community often as i find the cool that used to

produce outstanding gentleness and elders. the integrity in the pursuit of truth. there is no channel that covers world news like we do, we revisit places the state houses are really invest in that. and that's a privilege. as a journalist, the, the, the, the flow this is in use, our own ology is 0 for the back to go live for my headquarters in the coming up in the next 60 minutes on during the war on guys i've been killed by salvation. a 2 month old baby dies from acute nutrition. is there any strikes target central and southern god for at least a ton of music killed in the city of.