the stuff from out is there is most i last available in your favorites apps to just set for it and type domain the new app from out to 0 new at you think? is it the what role does parliament say in iran, your body is choosing and una? just look to as many hope it wouldn't pay the way for with full us with district investing system and, and see establishment candidates boss from running is change possible in these logic republic. this is the inside story, the hello welcome to the program. i am, how should my butler do run this problem on 3 elections? looks set to be a major task for the government while and to stop has been candidates on 6 back to

2 in many seats and low voter turnout could indicate extensive discontent into thousands of $22.00 of the country. it was blocked by mass protest, and many iranians are still quoting for reforms. so how is the government responding and what lies ahead for these? let me quit public with go to all a panel in just a moment, 1st fence them on on has this report. iran is electing a new parliament but some in the capital to iran or disillusion. they don't believe their vote will make a difference. so much as i say gotten every corner. i'm not going to vote because my experience from the previous results was not good. i don't think i'll choose anyone. i can't see anything new or any new statements. they're all just the same old slogans on the terry. my center is the biggest problem, is people's lack of trust in the effectiveness of parliament the government and says, there are plenty of choices. however, old candidates are vested in advance,

and some politicians who paper reforms say they're borrowed from running. and then i'll tell you this hello. yeah, to the final number of qualified candidates, was about 15000 people from the 20000 to registered. and naturally the rest of all those who would disqualify wide or ineligible according to our countries low to the many uranium one change. 7 in 2022 mass protests took place nationwide after young women died in police custody. most of them mean he had been arrested for allegedly violating the strict dress code for women. this prompted demands for reform, the sum even calling for an end to these logic republic. the government clamped down on protest and since passed even tougher penalties for ignoring the dress code . a visa a betty is one of a handful performance candidates who made it onto the ballot. she says problems stem from women be excluded from influential positions. for more sort of the issue where you're fine on toyota women. older,

very active society hold very small share of power. they will have access to positions of secondary importance, such as counsellors or deputy minister for women's affairs. it is the man who make the decisions even when they can send women. with many reformist voices, either disqualified or void, calling to vote, turn out is expected to be an important factor. if voters stay home, it could be assigned. the establishment is losing popularity. vince monahan al jazeera for inside story. the last thing you know, guys joining us from the hold on is how much not on the side of the university of to have on and running and political on us and beneath roxanne fall off on my end profess of international relations. and we're the middle east politics of the university of cambridge in just a little. we are joined by a non, from a lie and writing and a fast, an artist. and chief executive will couple a think tank focused on the middle east. welcome to the program. but some of the

like to ask you about a general sentiment that this election could perhaps be one of the most delicate moments for the political establishment in iran since these logic revolution. 1979. how accurate is this characterization? i'm not really sure because ever since i was a teenager during election times, they would say this is one of the most sensitive moments in the revolutionary period. so it's difficult to say, obviously the elections are important of the current administration. if the president wants to be re elected, the city has to be seen as having strong support. if he fails, the games took support. he could lose the election next year, especially since the economy isn't doing very well. of course,

his political opponents of uh, like present, real jaime, and his people they, people still don't have great memories of the economy during that period. so it is a certain moment where people see the current administration is not performing extraordinarily well and the previous administration not being very successful. but uh, we'll see, it's difficult to say what will happen at this age ro, side and many people are close to the monitoring the election this time uh, waiting to see how many people would show up of the about it. why is the turnout voter turnout? very important this time. well, i think we can look back at, but it was like 4 years ago at the previous election, it was down 42 to 42 percent this time, but the latest polls are expecting about 41 percent,

which certainly implies that the majority are not coming to be, to cast their votes. i think it's a combination of both a very bad economy and a period of feeling. and so they're not part of the political momentum that the leadership has taken a direction quite different than that, that the pop populace is feeling. and so there's a certain degree of feeling that they are not, no matter how much they vote, they will not be engaged in improving their situation. and so i think there's a great deal of despondency involved. on the other hand, i think it's also become very concerned that the leadership itself does not really care whether the population is voting or not. they don't see it as a implication on their own legitimacy. how should we? i've done this is my question to how should we analyze

a no vote to so now if you have was this time in this election, is it this contend with a political establishment in general, or just with a bra handle i say, or is it mainly because people don't trust that the government is going to improve that live in standards. look, i believe we should, we should look at it as a the way that we would look at it anywhere else. you have the trends you have as works on us at periods of a time, in which there is more satisfaction or content among the broader population. with the state of affairs in the country. there is a period in which people have, have increasing the, the feeling they kept, that they can shape politics in the country through elections. and i think it is fair to say that currently, um we are in a period or in a downward trend in that respect that there is law and much enthusiasm about elections. this has to do with all sorts of different grievances. this also may

have to do with the way that candidates, or the political establishment as a whole, hasn't managed to or failed to create that enthusiasm about political competition in a way that creates more of a mold or 3rd turn out. so in that respect we are currently and certainly in the low how much would you expect a voter turnout similar to what happened last to the past election in the sense that is what is going to be no way of incentives and major cities high in rural areas all the dana, dana diagnostics could shift any time. so it is all the way is lower in the city like runs because the, an actual law in my opinion is deeply slogged to. for example. if i vote tomorrow, i will have to fill the 30 names for parliament and for another account. so i choose it as the leader 16. so i have to fill in $46.00 names for the whole city

. and i'm like in small cities where i have a relationship with the m p, i know who my m. p is. he comes to my street or to my local school or to a local mosque or wherever. and i can meet him in his office and can't run with. there is no connection between the or the individual and the candidate or the elected parliamentary. and we have the same problem in major cities as well. but in tap on it is the most difficult, and it's also very time consuming. if you really sit down and write all the names, you could be there for quite a long time. and then the people in front of you have to do it. so you may be standing in 2 for hours just to cast a vote. that's why parliamentary elections any ronda turn out, is usually significantly lower than presidential elections because it presents for the president. you just go in, give you get the name and then you leave. so it's traditionally the iran,

based upon the mentor elections are between 42 and i hope 60 percent. it ranges the lowest as your previous guess. pointed out those 4 years ago. i don't believe that that one in the political or, or the political establishment of large doesn't want to see a high turn out. but i think a major issue any ron, according to polls me by far, is the economy. that's number one. number 2, number 3, number 4 in different ways it's express and uh, the because of the sanctions, but also because of a policy and it has mismanagement. the economy hasn't been doing well for maybe a decade now. and mr. a see when he 1st came in, there was optimism that he would be able to bring about change so far. although i had these last year at the economic, the economy grew significantly,

but people don't feel any change. they continue to feel, but the situation is not good. so it's sort of like what was one said in the united states. it's the economy, stupid as they would. ready but again, and that's also true, by the way, for us elections, the presidential election em us to turn out is much higher, but the congressional elections are usually in the thirties and forties asana. is it fair to say that this is going to be purely mainly just about economy and the growing discontent among people because of the increasing inflation, the sanctions that have been biting into the economy for quite some time? is it just purely an economic issue here? as well, it's certainly the economy that's the most immediate that's on people's minds and the currency has just been dropping it against the dollar. for example, quite substantially over the last 7 weeks. and the result of a,

a downward trend is that more and more people are falling under the poverty line. and so these are immediate concerns. it's very difficult to find the more of goods in the, in the markets that are, are the affordable people are really struggling. they're holding 2 jobs. so i think we're seeing the translation of what in the past, certainly could have been an argument that it was both a political and economic set of issues translating into becoming primarily economic because of the immediacy of this isn't done in a, in the way when people are frustrated with the performance of government likely because he indicates, as there is an inflation which is standing up 50 percent, the high consumer prices and the how the flattening currency. you would assume that people would or take that and to was that lead us. but while we seeing

basically is that ultimately the conservative was didn't have a biggest say in the next parliament. and the conservatives are likely to continue just to further consider dave, that political gains. because it makes sense. you could obviously say that elections are one way to interact with the state. and you can, of course, if you're discontent with the state of affairs and you have the feeling that engaging in collections and finding someone who represents or stands for the things that matter to you. and then you have the opportunity to change it to take this opening or this an offer by the state structure, so to speak, to participate. and in fact, make sure that people are rolling it out, that you no longer want to see in there. and this has happened quite often in the past 4 decades of this, let me prove public. but as i said earlier,

currently this doesn't seem to be necessarily the case. there is a lack of representation for some of the topics and grievances that people have. they certainly have primarily to do with the economic issues that were already mentioned, but they're obviously also cultural, social and political grievances where we see of a lack of representation or a lack of candidates that would be an incredible fashion and embody the grievances that people have or address them properly, so therefore we are currently seeing that this engagement or withdrawal so to speak from from those who are not satisfied with the current state of affairs. how much is the vetting process by the garden council? the a major problem here because ultimately when you look at the list of the candidates, you look at the environment itself. you've got a clear sense of the choices choices, narrowing here in iran. it is always a debate and it is a problem. but i think it is important to keep in mind that the united states,

the data, especially in 2009 in western countries trying to interfere and you're running elections into and especially in 2009 and the pressure and media which is funded by the wes and base and the less as always tried to influence the elections and one way or another either by telling people to vote in a certain way or not to vote in a certain way or not to vote at all or attacking particular people. so, when the united states in 2016, at least one of the many in the political establishment claimed that russia, what was interesting in your selections, you had 4 years of time, says so. so it's in the political establishment and in the united states indicate so if you run the united states as a much larger power than a run in the, in the west, when it interferes any runs, it creates greater caution. so the system begins to become more cautious. it is

more cautious about certain candidates who have connections abroad or with a certain political parties abroad. so the united states and europeans, if, if they're sincere about democracy and they're not, i mean genocide and gosh, i think as expos, everything. but if they were sincere about democracy, the 1st thing that they would do would be to stop interfering. and iranian internal affairs, and then i think he would automatically see things opened up as we saw in 2009 roecat debates. it was a really fantastic environment until after the elections and then we have riots and we're still we're still experiencing the consequences of that. and okay, i'm always ross on the that can send by the political establishment just to find disqualifying the independence they liberals, the centrist members of the reform coalition, to the point where people are saying that this to just tilting the ground for the

conservatives to take over once again, well, i think the 2 things are going on at the bottom in 1st place. this is a, a double election. this is an election for the assembly of experts as well. just comes around every 8 years. and that is the of somebody that will be quite probably responsible for choosing or uh, being part of the choosing of the next uh supreme leader because the supreme later comedy is uh, he's elderly and he's ill. and so the chances of him making it past the next 8 years are diminishing. so it's a, an opportunity for the conservatives to put into place. i think people that the current leadership feels are responsible and that they can count on and that are part of their in groups that will be able to then um,

according to their, a remit a choose somebody or a group of people that will run the country in the future, and that's a major change in, in the countries um next uh, future steps. and i think that the 2nd point that i wanted to make what a country is looking at a major structural change. and we've seen this in many different countries is not just a new ron, the entire system. uh, it goes into a point of being less flexible, being um, focused on trying to set the tone for the next stage. and so it is focused much, much less on bringing in different people bringing in experiments of approach. and i think we're seeing that stratification very much any ron at the moment, while at the same time, the conservative. so trying to consult date and take out the unpredictability for

their next step. uh, i'm not what future lives i have for the position when they see themselves. basically ejected from this practice. and the conservatives the consider dating back with on the, on paula in iran. and let me 1st ask what opposition you mean? are you referring to, let's say opposition factions with any of on that are trying to is yeah. transaction. yeah. the se, in particular, a m. yeah. look at, i think it's, it's quite clear that the, the, let's say that reform is that model is moderate factions. part all their demise if we want to put it this way, have to do with the disqualifications with the unfair political environment in many respects. but part of it is also due to their performance, and i would go as far as to say that even if less of their candidates have been

disqualified, i am not even sure that they would have been able or that they would be able to mobilize the constituents, in a similar way that we didn't see that in the past presidential election or before that the parliamentary election. so i think what, what really needs to happen in the, let's say, reform is the mater. it's kim. they are still remnants of that that are competing in tomorrow's elections. but of course it's a very, very weak and political, a group that we'll need to, to put its act together to generate a new generation. in fact. and of course, the political establishment has to open up, has to allow more space for them to, to have these new generation of politicians. and let me also very briefly come to the point that was referred to earlier, but those mohammad and iraq santa which is and in fact we are dealing with a very securitized political context. you to

a transition phase in terms of potential future succession. but also because of the high tension that exists between iran and external actors. and that leads to this closed political space for a car and to see how much se assistance i've done. i've talked about the rising tension in the region particular between the americans and, and the everybody is, is putting policy an issue that could the, the shape of the outcome of the election. we've seen senior iranian officials, including the harmony, basically saying that the world in gaza is a reason why they have you guys have to show up in math and those in this election . yes, what i should point out, but he is quite healthy, but to be the collections for the the council of experts as they call it that uses to meet or of course are very important. but yes, foreign policy too is key at the moment because the region is experiencing with a,

a major crisis. and we will probably see an expansion of the war, whether it's in rafa where the genocide will become worse or this way only was you in order to escape defeat. they will expand the war into lab and on and carry out their atrocities there. and of course, the run is the only government internationally recognized government that is supporting the resistance and gaza, the resistance, and map and on and the government and sign on and so on. so for a run, it is a very sensitive moment to that, and it is very important for iran to be seen as a strong. and for example, the during the anniversary of the revolution, there was a large turn out and there was to the leaders, the leaders and the president and misspeak are parliament that everyone was calling people to come to the streets because they felt that

a huge presence on the streets of cameron would be sending a message to the wes, a problem that we have in this region is that we are living in normal region. we live in a region where the united states and its allies manipulates. they turn countries against one another, they invade, they destroy, and the supports genocide. so for iran to be seen strong internally is very important. however, i should stress that parliamentary elections any wrong if there is a turn out, let's say a roughly 50 percent. that would be considered a good under the circumstances, but in general, parliamentary elections, as i said earlier, have a turn out that are less than the presidential elections. and as i said in particular, i mean your cities and particularly ron, to turn out is always going to be low because of the complementary. he had the, the system of action that they for imposed where you have to vote for tens of people. literally a roxan of those who are all going to take part in the election and those who would

stay decide to stay way. to what extent, with the warning because of the potential for a while and to be drawn into a major confrontation with united states of america, be a fact to that could decide whether to go and vote or stay at home. i don't think it's a huge factor ice as i, i think discuss the economy is much more immediate. i think the element of being engaged in a government that might make a difference if they've voted. i don't think people feel that they have any control and that their vote will deliver any real benefits. i think the element of casa and the region is actually more important to the leadership. and it's because of an interesting paradox that's taking place briefly that iran is in many ways because it's of its support for palestinians and palestine speaking very much to the error

of street. so we're seeing it throughout the region that runs messages, resonating with the, with the populations that who's on leadership are actually approaching the situation rather differently. and yet, interestingly, it's the bronze population that is not supporting its own government that much. so we, we see a dichotomy here, and i think that's where that issue was playing out rather than really affecting people's choices to go to the pulse. and then i will send a 1.2 briefing, what happens? yes, good as please go ahead, go ahead. so i, i agree that the main issue is the economy. that's absolutely correct. but polls and you run also show that the iranians overwhelmingly support the people of palestine and gaza and the support the wrong supporting them. there is a division. any ronnie about that? but the strong majority do support the ross policy in that regard,

but it doesn't give the government to an excuse. so for the performance and obviously none briefly, if you don't mind the assembly of ex best, but he's going to be also elect to the $88.00. the see, some of the body is going to be a crucial moment. is it going to be the next assembly to this slide, the next success of the supreme data? i mean little bit it's, and it's kind of, it's not going to be, is that one critical moment, but it's definitely going to be important in the sense that it is another in another step in a certain direction. it's very, very difficult to say what the formal process process processes will be like once should there be to define the decision about the future of the supreme, the just position. and it is clear just to, to say that of course, it is a very sensitive time, and it is important to make sure that, that people are chosen into this assembly. this is the government's view or the

establishment view that people are represented in this in the body that will but who shaped the country in the direction that is in line with the political establishment, thoughts. so there is, there is no real questions, no real risk allowed, no real arbitrary and this shouldn't be left there. this is obviously far too sensitive. how many bonded ups on a 5 month on my end, and i'd non profit. i really appreciate your insight looking forward to talking to you in the future. thank you. it was like, you just lost it. you can see the program again, any time by visiting our website. i'm just the raw dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x all a 100 is at a j insights study from the house you model by and the whole team here in doha bye for now. the

listings in the gaza strip as easily as long continues. there's a deliberate mission of posting and humanity in western media. and it needs to be question, sustains coverage that actively humanizes as readings and actively humanize of palestinians. this is not the time for doing this to kind of wait tracking those stories, examining the journalism and the effect that news coverage can have on democracies everywhere. here at the listing past the, the is really military bags. the sho legalese, randy settlements. and the okey point westbank, the red lines, bulk the borders of the item. you describe just new security. so we're now in the area, i think you're just saw on those laps. they're all illegal is ready. settlers living just a few 100 meters from, hey, in caravans, in that direction. and they, all me says that it's a necessity in order to expand

a so called securities are around illegal is right. the central suddenly is ready. so which is a pay on the opposite bank, they approach forcing us to stop filming, detained us for more than 2 hours. the, all of these confiscation of land around in the galleries, really central, that's charlotte stadium say is full proof of israel breaking in some national zeros here to report on the people often ignored, but who must be hurt. how many other channels can you say? we'll take this time and put extensive followed into reporting from under reported areas. of course we cover major global events, but our passion lies in making sure that you're hearing the stories from people in places like how is fine lydia young region. and so many others. we go to them, we make the effort. we tear straight

in news . is there any forces done done palestinian scrambling for desperately need today? over a 100 people accounts this over 3. just, you know, massive is as testimony as long as the security concept is better lice and pete, those costs, then it is costing the palestinian people in their life. the world reacts upon a sending a box it or asks the un security council to find them cold for a c sparks the.