not just using a symbol of national identity to create a postage in passport stamps. but as for some nice, clear to be able to come flying anyway, sending a message of resistance about the arab israeli conflict. how to sort of where you come to by this time palestine sundance, the stamp of defiance on out of the 6 candidates have been cleared to run and yvonne's presidential rights to all of a. how do they exist? uh, and what role will they play? the boat is less than a month off of the death of the former president. so what's at stake this time around? and how could the outcome affect the country's role in the region? this is inside story, the

hello there and welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle and ron is gearing up for presidential election on june the 28th. it's earlier than expected following the death of present abraham racy and a helicopter crash in may. 6 candidates have been approved to run all along. subbing members of a ross political establishment. the window will have to contend with the struggling economy and ongoing challenges of american functions. so how much choice does this field of confidence rep present with both a ton of thinking to old time lows? ronnie ends being supplied to cost of votes. now we'll go to a panel in just a moment. first offensive amount of time has this report the kansas salt to run into runs presidential elections. only 6 were approved. the best thing processed by the guardian council in recent years has ensured the removal of anyone who might challenge the establishment are among those accepted mohammed vulgar

calabasas. if the speaker of parliament, a former mirror of to run out of favor commander in the revolution regard, the current matter of the capital raises economy is also a candidate on it as, as former nuclear negotiator. so you delete that, all many major figures were cut from the rates, including for president boston, who dealt magenta, jed and for a problem. and speaker ali laura johnny, this election is happening much earlier than expected. it follows the death of president ever humor you see in a helicopter crash in may. after that incident, supreme leader ali khamenei told his people received death would not affect the running of the state. a reassurance and a reminder that his office is where a final authority ultimately lies that i see available the a would you be assured that there will be no disruption in the work of the country . officials have been very busy with their work since this evening. after hearing the news of the incident that we have given them the necessary recommendations and

the affairs of the country are proceeding regularly. your arms next present will have to contend with the struggling economy and nuclear sanctions imposed by the united states. but disillusionment is also growing among voters. the last election had a similarly narrow field of candidates. the result was the lowest turn out since the founding of uranian state fits and monahan l just sierra for inside story. the. oh, that's bring it, i guess now. and in to her on a bus as long the senior research fellow at the tower on base. think type center for middle east strategic studies from london, southern vacuum, a director of them at least i know if i for can program at chatham house. and even though we're joined by member on camera, he's professor of government at georgetown university in cutoff. i will welcome to all of you about that. stop by getting an idea of how ronnie and feel about these

elections and their reactions, so initial reactions to who's on the pallets to laura in clyde a few days. you know, the uh, miss steer from the funeral ceremonies has shifted to political campaigns. this presidential election was expected to happen next year, but it is going to be held, you know, within a couple of weeks. and it was supposed to take place after the elections in the united states. some impacts maybe was expected as a result of you know, the election as indianapolis to ace as the have been discussions about donald trump, the, you know, likely running for the election. but this proceed started election um independent of the american, you know, elections and we are seeing that you know, some candidates being qualify some being disqualified, then the, the i thing in the coming days, the public, the, those so care about the elections will be watching the programs on tv,

specifically those live color wise debates among the candidates to see that whole 10 some how best feet this of the you know this chair in order to be the next president. okay. some qualifies, most disqualified. so i'm, let's have a look at who did not make the less than a couple of the best known names, at least outside veronda. the next president, my foot. i'm in a judge and the motor it alley lara. johnny, why, for example, they know makes the costs well, i think the bose candidates have particular portfolios of former president who cutting a judge as a controversial figure or one who left off is not on the best of terms where they are on supreme leader and the political establishment, he's also perhaps seen as a threat and, and very much of populist that could up and

a conservative control of iran selected an unexpected institutions. i mean, laurie johnny, it's interesting that he is called a moderate today. he is still in my mind, very much a conservative, but someone who has become much more pragmatic and perhaps more hope and, and his engagement domestically in iran, but also internationally is still loyal to the system. but he's proceeds because of a, perhaps, as a political inclinations to be someone that might also challenge the, the system and the conservative dominance of that system from within his brother. also, i saw that a large on he was head of the judiciary. he was disqualified from iran assembly of experts and elections, not obtaining any seats there as well. so the family that was long, very important in iran, political establishment has been pushed in the wayside. i will also add that the number of women to put themselves forward also were not qualified to run for

president by the guardian council and women today. over 4 decades have yet to receive a guardian council approval to run in any election member on the if, as you can give us some insights as to how the guardian counts so chooses these people. i mean we, as um, says anyone who challenges the system has not made this final list. what all the parameters for who is deemed acceptable as a candidates. and can you give us a bit of an idea as to how they've narrowed over the is that's a really good question, but one that we really don't know. the answer to the guardian council operates a tremendous of pay, city and lack of transparency. and from one election to another, it doesn't appear as if they have any consistent criteria. obviously the guardian council chord makes very closely with the office of the supreme leader in terms of

who is and who's not qualified to run for the presidency. and what we've seen is, as you mentioned over the last several years and increasing narrowing of the political space. and so, increasingly the guardian council has been very instrumental in what any rodney is commonly perceived as engineering elections in order to produce particular outcomes. we solve this in 2021 and we appear to be seeing it again right now in 2024 of us while no reform is on the ballot this time around low right thing. we have a reform is come to this. now in the list, you know, the process for registering for the president in the country is relatively accessible. event and candid. this was a month with the parliament or executive management can register. and the

initial, you know, number of bits uh, kind of this can. so i would say significant number plugged into vetting process. so normally the guardian council, you know, narrow is that failed to a said dramatically. but the point nice thing is a big troops of the mother is not the constancy of the candidates, but i think that is about the disqualification of southern candidates in addition to the political leanings of the those have been officially sanctioned by the council of the president of 6 candidates and long them daughter to belong to the conservatives. but there are 2 candidates, so have quote, collaborated with to moderate. so reform is or even are officially considered is to be a reformist, you know, can that a reform is, have been critical of the processes that are by the guardian council has this qualified, you know, the number of candidates spots today. you know,

with the qualification of muscles as i scanned the reform as member of parliament, they seemed to be more content to. how did you know i've been a lot of johnny being qualified to run because they wanted someone to be in the range to represent them on the icing gave you shouldn't underestimate the current, you know, member of parliament possession beyond. but in this race on the left, so i forget that the former president of the law has somewhere on the right and the hosted me rough son, johnny was disqualified by the guardian counsel in the policy had the you know, a support of less than 5 percent of by the in the, the base and the political campaign. he try to somehow rise himself to be president in the country with securing more than 50 percent of the votes of. so i thing to, you know, this election is a bit too early to call on however, you know,

some say that the competition most, it takes place between the conservatives. but you know, the presence of high per fun, conservative, you know, candidates in this process. in addition to those new candidates come some somehow and they can kind of run of a or a lease, increase the town. some of those reformers can to this in case the able to count on ice the reformer space. ok, so let's look at my food as can who of us mentions the, however, a full missed? is he a peasant? she also has an interest in canada and he is a shane inside or um, well, you know, with her for ms leanings and he has been a health minister, but long time preliminary and as well. and he has a very ethnic roots and certainly, you know, if you, we've all of this together. he's certainly um, on the more or less side of the system. i think it's important to contextualize his

candidacy within the narrow way of the political space. and they run that background referred to um, over the past number of collections, including the most recent parliamentary elections that were just held over the spring. the turnout was particularly low at 41 percent in a rise. these presidential election in 2021 turnout was also low. so our position to run and the selection could be about 2 things. effectively. building bridges back to the reform is factions that have been marginalized, formerly from government, but also to try to generate some public support after protests and real disturbance between the political establishment and the general public. so i'm do call his candidacy tokenistic. that remains to be seen if he has the ability to mobilize iranians to come out to vote. and secondly,

how much independence he has and something where they always have to weigh the president isn't really an independence free mobil lives or within the system. he is a part of the system and so you know, you have to put that into context as well. and what do, what do you think about that? what and see when you see pest? cuz it has can on the list of why. first of all, what do you think he is that an is his present? it's going to be enough to galvanize the electrician vessel legitimize the election process. even in the 2021 elections, there was a that there was at least one candidate who was considered to be reform is. so the guardian council doesn't want to appear as if it's only allowing conservatives, or people generally known as conservative to run for the election. whether or not possess kion can galvanize voters or anyone else for that matter. i think we'll,

we'll have to see over the next uh, over the next couple of weeks in particular uh, what we've seen in past elections is that the live televised debates have been quite consequential and exciting voters in allowing candidates to articulate a platform as much as possible and allowing candidates to really go after each other. and so in the past at least up until 2021 presidential debates were quite consequential in either making or breaking candidates. we already have in a wrong uh, the base that are scheduled. and i think those debates will be quite challenging in terms of the ability of the candidates to excite, to speak, to voters, to excite voters, and to mobilize the suppose at the base of us give us again the view from the

ground in annual circles as much in few z as him for the vote. so you, do you think you'll friends or family people you know, again, to be watching these debates and get excited about this balance? well, i think one of the difficult task for the government will be to increase the turned out, you know, in order to a specifically wanted to come to the moderate sound reform is because if they want to mobilize their base, uh, they will need to encourage the inconvenience, those are the refrain from loading in the past for the president has sounds a little honey he tried to using the issue of engagement with of us on a claim team getting new to agreement with the 612 countries in order to encourage the uh, what service to come to the ballot boxes, but this, this time around the i think that will be very difficult. um, is it a figured i'd like to mess with the business account wants to mean they have to do

this. however, this is going to be very difficult how as it was mentioned earlier, you know, part of the, i really haven't been the case as well in the past. that part of the population or the electorate, that the does not have the decision to vote. now, they might be some hop for a vote to do so in the coming days by witnessing the political campaign or the lifetime of all as debates. but i think this time the people in the country are not ready for the kind of, let's say, say beer or a messiah. that will resolve all the issues over night or in a very short time. but i think what they are expecting this time to see is a and current mental process and procedures later by they will see a garage on the resolution of those a specifically economic problems and the, you know, that's why i think being a reformist or conservative will not that much more in this round,

if you know those gray zone of the people, if they decide to come to vote, they will be searching someone who, you know, talks beyond these slow blooms. and they will think that they will be hearing a kind of rationality from his words. that's why i think those, you know, based on the rewards and remarks that are going to be made in the coming days. well mother law. okay. um, son um with a possess cabinet. oh indeed. key leading conservative. if it goes i'm looking at my home it back a collarbone fund side to lee lee. who was, i get sin, to what extent are we just going to see a continuation of runs policies that i think is a really important pick. the question to unpack the run in president, of course, is important. and traditionally, because at ha, a he is elected by the people after this vetting process. and so there is this

perception that there's legitimacy behind the office. and of course the system works across the runs institutions. um and that's been important. the president sets the tone of the administration, particularly within domestic politics and on the economy about on foreign policy on its own. the president doesn't have independent influence. certainly he lands his voice, an opinion to a consensus based process that takes place in the supreme national security council . and there the president sits along side representatives from parliament, the supreme leaders office, the i r g c and other institutions. and they provide a consensus based decisions and suggestions on how to move forward to respond to iran, regional as well as international challenges. so, you know, inside the country, there is a degree of independence on the economics. and i think that's going to be

a really important key point for that selection and, and for voters inside iran. but on the foreign policy front, i expect, particularly with so many conservatives and leading ones the, the prevailing of foreign policy dynamics will not shift too much going forward. okay, so the key election issue will be the economy my on every cons that then will be offering his way to improve runs economy, which is really in the doldrums. what ways are available to candidates to make runs economy most stable? if indeed it count they can as well, but that's the important point. 10 day indeed, one of the main office that goals to economic improvement to the wrong is the punishing comprehensive sanctions. is that the you, the united states have imposed on the country?

and i think of course, bar and get any progress on the new player question, then i don't think we'll see any sanctions really for even any discussion of sanctions really. so that's one of the main areas in which the ronnie and economy is suffering from lack of western investments. the inability of your rodney and businesses to export abroad freely a lack of a meaningful venue for globalization of the economy and exchange. but it's other countries, and i think until unless that main hurdle is removed, the warranty and economy will continue to significantly underperform. and another key issue within a role and of course, has been the women's protests that adopted in september 2022. they have been cracks

down a poll now the to all extends and purposes being crushed. and yet now there was this huge job know that has come into place to what extent is that building and force on the street? and do you see any change to that, regardless of who gets into the presidency? how well that's low, why, you know this time in this found the elections in addition to the foreign policy related issues, meaning design shows as well as the economic issues in the country they might be hearing from those candidates on issues related. so he job internet's freedom on the, you know, that's right. maybe people like possess gone. they have been in the system, they have been in the parliament, but it does not necessarily mean that they will share similar ideas with the other conservative candidates on those issues. and we have been seeing that those, you know, candidates and long specifically the reform is from the facts and as well as the

moderates that you have been critical of the policies adopted by the system. the specifics, the by a conservative government. so i think that that's going to be one of the hot topics, specifically in the political campaign in the press conferences that these kind of kinds of this aren't going to have or even did live televised debates. i think this can be an issue that they can most of specifically be reformers candidates and over on. so this is an area that might some how encourage some part of that res, on those extra it's in order to be 10 minutes to go into the ballot boxes. they might be some chances in that. so that's why, you know, in some ways it can make those debates controversial, but in some ways. crazy calling about misspelling of the advice that people can be a bit more hopeful that they have a new voice, a different voice on those topics. and they can go on boards for the candidates.

however, i believe that increasing the level of time now is going to be very difficult job to do. okay. somehow hopeful. can people really be of hearing a new voice? we've got the conservatives winning, big impala mentor elections earlier this year. the reformers hold any key positions now in a wrong, you know, meaningful ones man. and they're not sitting in any of the key decision making rooms. and i think that in itself is the problem of, for the public. there is a keen awareness that reform on its own or the platform of reform hasn't over a number of decades now. really delivered, meaningful social, political, or economic change for iranians. so position on his own, even with liberal ideas, doesn't have the authority to challenge a hard line parliament or. 6 or a very conservative system that is in the process of

a very gradual transition and needs bad political cohesion to manage wants to come on the horizon. i struggle to think that it will be hard to achieve the higher turnout that we saw, and in the period of president rodney's election, or president, i'm, i do not, or i don't mind, you know, shots, elections where turnouts were, you know, a high of a 70 percent, and if the system is lucky they can uh see uh, 40 percent come out to vote and that will be legitimate enough for uh this uh, surprises election and an opportunity for a number of candidates to elevate themselves within the system and, and try to have an impact in a system that doesn't really encourage or promote independent change. my problem when you've got this increasing disconnect between the states and society,

the people of a ron, to what extent do risk and stability in the country uh, you know, uh does the system really care about political participation? i think that's, that's a key question. and sometimes i don't think the answer to that is that the system really chairs, it goes to the emotions, particularly since 2021. it goes through the motions of having the elections. but the system appears to have the diehard support of something around 50 to 20 percent of the population. and so long as that core support base remains loyal to the ideology of this law, making republic to what this law make it public stands for. it doesn't appear as if the system really cares about the other 25 to 80 percent. okay,

about just the final, what do you have and do you think that people do feel connected to the system that the system test about them? well, that has been problems in the country that people are unhappy with, but you know, to make a point that, you know, this will make no change if they, you know, votes for these different kinds of that is quite simplistic because they haven't any idea this could i could disqualifying some candidates, you know, is that kind of admission even by the stablish when itself, that, you know, having a new and a different president in office could impact, you know, even the administration, the crunchy on the having a president who has the card at least relatively, i'm not, i'm not talking to a significant or to embody the differences in the executive and those policies. he will be the ones who, you know, introduce the members of the cabinet in order to executive the laws passed by the

parliament. and he will introduce the members of the supreme national security council, which is, you know, they may talk majority is being held by the cabinet members and the governments. okay. and so it still will be an interesting election to keep an eye on. that's it for our discussion today, a boss of lonnie sun on vac. you and my friend come rather. thank you very much for joining us and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting a website that's out. is there a dot com for further discussion? go to all facebook page. that's facebook dot com full slash 8 inside story. it wasn't during the conversation on x all handle is at a j inside story from me laura kyle and the whole team here is bye for now the a pod. his aim interviews is israel and obstacles piece. i think that the new thing

you have on his government with these says 5 digit, you say getting less of a thought provoking odd since the e you made weapons being used in guns. no guns should be used in an offensive way. that's our facing realities. you're running mean what does he bring to the table? hard from being presidential, could we go to some we cannot take the fact that he was suddenly present as not that important effective. he had the story on talk to how does era the in the

center i bet is due to the your will, scott a duty and a growth using for p use a cost to contribute to improving the lives of thousands of projects except the cost. and we strive to ensure it reaches its deserving recipients,

visit the cost on wordpress, and remember to cut purifies wells and increases sustenance costs on red chris the carrie jones thing. tell you how the top stories on out is there. there's new hope for an end to the hostilities and gauze that un security council has approved the us back proposal for cease 5 for 10 votes in favor. 0 votes or just one extension. it's the 1st time the un top body has passed a resolution quoting for cs following casa, often more than 8 months of all. honest international says the move was long overdue, and coal for its immediate implementation. the move has been.