the, the . ringback the isn't the kind of conflicts possible or 4 or 5, so you could have powers of increased spending on a scale no seen in decades on going was set to be the reason. so how soon you could, the tyrants fails. that story, the hello and welcome to the program. i'm the bulk of our report by the international campaign to abolish nuclear weapon,

to show spending on atomic bombs has ballooned nearly a $100000000000.00, has been spent by the world's 9 nuclear nations in a single year. euclid will have stopped power to reduce since the peak of the cold war. boss, new soaring expenditure banks, the questions why all these countries willing to spend such incredible sums of money on atomic weapons. and are they making the world any safe and rushes threats to possibly use nuclear weapons? and ukraine? just upholstery, all of a driving a renewed, providing real need for rivals to build up. then you cut off those. we'll get to those questions in a moment. but 1st, the support by michael apple nuclear weapons mankind's most destructive invention, ever conceived, and then mass produced. since the cold war. competing superpowers have subscribed to a nuclear doctrine. that stock piling these weapons provides protection through each

side being deterred from using them to avoid the risk of mutually assured destruction. and you report from the international campaign to abolish nuclear weapons o 510 shows that there are 9 nuclear on states in the world. combined, they spend more than $90000000000.00 on the nuclear arsenals last year. the us is by follow the front runner, spending more than 50000000000. it's followed by china that nearly 12000000000 and russia with a little over, a 1000000000 of the united nations secretary general says the world has been extraordinarily lucky so far not to have seen global geo political tensions erupted into catastrophe to the humanities just wouldn't be as understanding when miscalculation away from looking at any lation, the world's nuclear on nations. last year i spent a staggering $2898.00 per 2nd,

or $250000000.00 a day on both maintaining the existing aust knowles. and expanding the bike can all use this money can and must be better spent. the unions, world food program says global hunger can be eradicated if these countries spend $40000000000.00 per year on assistance until 2031 year of nuclear weapons funding could also help cover nearly 30 percent of what's needed to mitigate and adapt to climate change with conflicts intensifying the will, the p is increasingly unstable, up in the risk of tactical or so called battlefield nuclear weapons being used. a report by the stockholm international piece research institute says russia has 5 and a half 1000 warheads. if we look at proving that cavities literally since the 1st day of the invasion of ukraine, he has been making nuclear threats. he has been talking about the importance of

rushes nuclear arsenal. it's nearly 7 years since a $122.00 nations of the world voted in favor of the treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons celebrations at the time. but the world is no closer to eliminating new sale weapons. and the figures show the opposite is happening and the nuclear arms business is booming. michael apple held his era for inside story. all right, let's bring in a guest in vienna. nicolai's talk of who is a senior fellow at the vienna center for disarmament. a non proliferation and took policy many control negotiations. gary say more, joins us from boston. he's a politics professor at brian this university and a full. i'm a senior official in the us national security council. responsible for non proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and in brussels. victor go, who is the vice president of the center for china and globalization,

a leading chinese thing. time is also a full met. diplomats welcome to all 3 of you. go. i wonder if i can start by asking you this. according to this latest report is of the 9, well, put nuclear nations are apparently spending more on euclid homes. why is that happening? so i agree with the report. all of the countries that have nuclear weapons believe they are a central, vital for their national security. so those countries that have nuclear weapons are spending money in order to maintain and modernize, and in some cases, expand their nuclear forces. and i would expect that trend to continue for the foreseeable future. nicolai's, that's a trend you see happening. oh is yes, i would say that there are a few countries actually now increase the number of nuclear weapons but they were

while he's modernizing especially is did you re reviews like b file submarines and bars? and i think more countries might actually join the trim doors, increasing the numbers as well, but that's going to be in the future. uh, nickel are start review for a 2nd because one argument is that all of this is primarily because the us is decided to spend much more on its military defense budget of the back of the war. and ukraine, turbulence in the middle east. some concerns about china is admissions that in the region, is the us budget to blame for this pro, charging of this new clarice around the world. i would say that there are 2 main reasons why the namespace has been the more reason why, you know, that generally speaking is more expensive than the space usage of the nature of the comic and political system. so generally less space spends more money to do the

same things that other countries can do cheaper. a service number was number 2. uh oh, the arsenal. we included, it's better to get your car so, but on just strategically on the last days now have is the legacy arsenal of a small team here who from the cold war days is just getting very old. so almost all systems actually do needs replaced and that's really the main reason for spending more money. all the united states is now just, oh, oh, oh oh, i'm just beginning actually. oh oh, the cycles and a wholesale release minutes in the is that's why i'm spending more makes the example starting the same cycle for like 20 years ago. okay. uh. so let's go to fix the pick to according to uh, according to the to nikolai,

the us is overly just started. china, we know, is judged to be the 2nd largest spend the when it comes to it's nuclear hospital with a bunch of $11900000000.00 that is well below the $51000000000.00 spent by the united states. however, it is enough to cause concern victor in the region. why does china want more nuclear weapons? the 1st of all i seem to mankind is that the very critical of correspond, uh, meaning i, the one all piece. and there are countries which are as a team for more or the expansion into all the reduce. i'll try to of, sorry, it's a subjugate all the countries to install minutes. now as far as china is concerned, china's military expenditures a whole is only a fractional that of the united states and terms that never, they said how many new plant, what has it, has it made it very clear trauma will have enough nuclear warheads to get to be but

which was it? whichever country which day has to launch a new career tact just trying to find means thomas knew what buttons is purely 450 purposes. china would never use nuclear weapons against the non nuclear weapon states and china. we'll never use nuclear weapons against oops, of countries which do not use nuclear weapons. i hope all the tundra is the united states. and otherwise we'll do the same as china, declaring that they will not be the 1st to use nuclear weapons because nuclear weapons kind of use was you use while nuclear bomb, it will never stop, it will continue on to mankind will be wiped out. so this is a critical moment we all that's focused on the things that really matter. that is one of the stuff happens to the nuclear awesome mankind as a whole, need to come up with a commitment that no country should be allowed to use nuclear weapons. do storm force, so we'll talk about the hopes of

a commitment to making sure that happens. victor a little bit later on, but some tell me about to you, gary. we've had a lot particularly, and russia invoking is new to the hospital as a means of warning western states not to intervene in the conflict in ukraine. even conducting simulated exercises, of the use of tactical nuclear weapons. the on the border of a, the zones of the world where that is likely to be a possible, you cannot incident. it appears that it's likely to be an eastern new cray. of all, i think when the war was going very badly for russia and russian officials and experts were threatening to possibly use nuclear weapons, that threat was credible enough so that the us and other western countries were very cautious in providing weapons to ukraine. because they were afraid it would trigger

a desperate russian reaction use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield in ukraine. i think since the war has settled into a stalemate, or even a slight advantage for russia, those nuclear threats are less credible and the western countries have gradually, cautiously provided ukraine with longer range weapons were capable weapons and permission to use them on russian territory. so for now, i think the threat of nuclear use in the ukraine war is relatively low. but i do agree that if the war continues, as it looks like it will for years, and if my war begins to turn against russia, if the ukrainians begin to succeed on the battlefield, i, i, i think there's a greater risk the rusher will feel that has to resort the nuclear use in order to avoid losing a war. nikolai,

the time of recording vladimir putin is visiting those career. he's the in the on young. what is the increase spending on euclid weapons mean full countries with fledging fledgling nuclear programs like and your career or? oh, well i don't think that there is a direct relationship between actually russia and those korean. oh, no problem right now. and let me actually say that they don't worry degrees. oh, with gary to begin with. i really do not see any problem. be able to get across the invite to use nuclear weapons against you, crated. so uh, fox, i think is quite possible uh, through the wizard assistance, the pre invite, actually regional level. that's turning designs were all on the front lines using that case actually rush of minds tried to escalate against nature. oh

oh. oh no, that gets you great. what else i need to understand all, all the very political weapon 1st and foremost those. so the idea here, oh, use no use no way where i was. oh, what does the white crazy believe so the other side changes. pause here. so is also the, i will say, oh, that sounds like the dresser might actually try. uh oh is i think the probability is actually still quite high and the rising is need to get some more involved in your brain. oh oh, but oh, once again, i don't really see any threats or any use on the guest brain, but i do see a possible threats. and also the worst case you want to use the just you are just

because when you get into an escalation dynamic, it's very easy to lose control of it. so what so the client has just clearly pointed out is that maybe they may not be the real desire to actually use these weapons on the battlefield. but never the less the presence in austin was around the world is still being used as a degree of political left, which of course, during the cold war that was the principal of mutually assured destruction. m a d appropriately named mad web i. in the event of a nuclear war, both the attacker i'm the defender would be single chain is slightly annihilated. do you think that principal of the terrance still exists today? victor? first of all, from the very beginning of the same criminal law, russia has declared to the world that on the one hand it is using conventional level for the battle ukraine. on the other hand, it is holding very far in this position, nuclear weapons, i personally don't think russia wants to use the weapons inc. santa of ukraine.

russia wants to franklin to use nuclear weapons only against those countries, especially maykel member states, which may take actions more and more in crunching all the show, sovereignty and territorial integrity. to send to an extent that russia will feel compelled to use nuclear weapons against the this is exactly why russia, the more recent card sailed. they have a demo false is included on the clear summary to cuba and would be very short distance from the front of the coast. the russian fleet, engaged in firing exercise very close to the united states about 40 miles from the florida coast. this means that russia 0 is about using the weapon to the car, the united states, and they told member of states so that they know that the there was a violation of cross over the war. he dual credit part his unbelief. but they both

member states allowed the and you'll come in maybe the resources to scramble lost the f. 16 file. the claims from the colt even there, made to a member of states, then russia most likely will use nuclear weapons technical all strategically against the. and this will really be to, to a very dangerous situation of complete loss of the situation. because as we just now discussed, no use of nuclear weapon should happen because use, why does you fire a nuclear weapon? a bar, for example, then people keep firing a new clip homes against each other. even these people are both killed. instantly politics looked at exposure and the resulting nuclear winter will, why passed out? that's why i appeal on russia as well as ukraine to continue to 0 to discussions about these 5. yeah. and i also called all maple numbers no longer to pull more

fuel onto the volume to warranty. okay? because you'll never know what will lead to that he made. you really need to escalation and complete loss of the situation for going to get all the way over to the shadow or the spectra of what happened in nagasaki and a russian. i obviously casa a long shadow over today's world as well. but nevertheless, china, along with the us along with the u. k. funds, many of those all spending vast sums of money on the nuclear hospitals. gary, i wonder if i can turn the discussion on his head slightly and off this because one argument put forward by so cool nuclear weapons up to this is precisely that they of a direct conflicts between major powers. should we gary to some degree? welcome to, i think is certainly true that in the period after the 2nd world war, the presence of nuclear weapons, especially in the stand off between the united states and the soviet union. the

presence of nuclear weapons certainly imposed caution and constraint on the leaders of both countries because they recognized that the use of nuclear weapons would lead to mutual allied elation. as you said, mutually assured destruction. so from that standpoint, nuclear weapons did have a stabilizing impact at the same time as the other guess said if that turned sales because of miscalculation or escalation from the conventional conflict, the consequences would be catastrophic, not only for the countries involved, but for all of humanity so i think there's still a strong argument for trying to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons beyond the 9 countries that already possess nuclear weapons and which are not going to give them up. so i think both are true know to your weapons has tended to create

stabilization, not only between the us and russia, us and china, also india and pakistan. but at the same time, i think we should try to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. so the less countries have nikolai tennessee there is just adding from what we just said that from gary the, an interesting effect of the country is investing heavily in a new class. those is cool. the stability in stability, power, adults, the wall, the public bill, etc. of direct conflicts between nuclear powers reduces. it does increase the instances of mine or in direct conflict between countries. to what extent is on nuclear weapons playing an impact in fuel in existing low level conflicts? i would say this is the docs is true. offers and seconds. uh,

i will not say you uh, but it does crate it or not, but use it for such a conduit is and that's exactly what we now seeing, you crated. so basically, russell says that when the state cannot be defeated. so even if the warrant, you free the will, or russia does think that you can leverage the weapons so that it's kim. oh, but when can we defeat my? oh, the interests of your brain, but the entire western united states. oh you, i won't say that's all that across the world actually proceed. oh, would it be more cautiously in the sense that, oh, escalation will start? oh, conventional kind of level with conventional strikes and they do. oh,

but as i said, escalation, oh oh, oh, oh, a good to know. okay. yeah. oh the oh really no telling what's going to happen. i don't see that we are leaving you a period. that's all the boat is dangerous, is that you want to be solved. price is made the song with actually lives. it's quite dangerous and i think all right, it's now growing big. so we all living at a time, almost as dangerous as the cuban missile crisis says the nikolai, but i want to ask you this to what extent to china is contributing to that. because so when we talk of a new close, don't pause. we don't actually mean all of them are deployed. they still need to have long systems bought. for the 1st time, china has deployed $24.00 weapons in a state of quote hi readiness, which means that they can be fired at any time. why is that? victor?

personalizing calls that to reports, opulence, speculation, no one knows seem to, well, how many more has child has and how the board has china has deployed for active duty service. this means that china has nuclear weapon program in itself is a mystery. and kind of position is, as i mentioned, china would never be the 1st to you to use nuclear weapons against any country and try that will not use nuclear weapons against the moment grew up in states. all groups of countries which cannot use nuclear weapons, and china will have the most sufficient amount of nuclear warheads to retaliate against any country. i mean, any country which tends to launch a nuclear attack against china, this is truly time most position and time. it does not tell you how many warheads it has. how many more has it has the price? and i hope countries like russia, everybody's dates of birth level problems. and i was willing to exactly. i was like

charlotte street with enough warheads, but i always come in my to be the 1st one to use nuclear weapons. that's the right thing for all the, all the crap. how us to do a guy returning to you. of course, as i mentioned earlier, we will know the devastating consequences of the use of atomic weapons neck, a saki hiroshima of course. but when we talk of the bottle filled in ukraine, that has been of new world mentioned the discussion of the use of so called types cool weapons. i just wonder whether the never again sentiment when it comes to nuclear weapons, is somewhat softening in recent years. is certainly the threat to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield, lowers the nuclear threshold because it wouldn't involve a direct attack on a civilian population and the cities that but i think most experts believe that it

would be very difficult to contain the use of nuclear weapons on the battle sale the once they were used, it could easily escalate to counter use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield and that could be expanded to a much broader nuclear conflict. so in theory and certainly during the cold war, the us plan for the use of battlefield nuclear weapons against a soviet and warsaw pact, conventional forces because the us thought of what it was at a disadvantage. and the reverse is true. now russia plans for the use of a battlefield weapons against nato. russia, thanks, it's weakening the nato. but fortunately that proposition has never been tested and i think it's very important to maintain, to avoid conflict it. and the situation in which a nuclear power thinks it needs to resort to battlefield nuclear weapons in order

to avoid defeat q for that. uh nikolai, as we reached the end of our discussion to somebody who was directly involved in assisting and encouraging the disarmament process over the many decades. i just wonder whether you feel that the work of the pos 50 is as being somewhat undone. we are nowhere near the kind of stop problems that existed at the height of the cold war. when the us, us all have 40000 warheads, the us, 23000. but do you feel that things all go into the wrong direction, nikolai? or? yeah, the thing is go in the wrong direction. let me say the numbers are not the most important. the actual parameter there is i don't really see large scale going of use of nuclear weapons, but you will want to know who went one or 2 way radio. i think it wouldn't be all good. strong was especially of these. you're talking about using them in your oh and there's really no way. busy to leave the city link of characters or given

engaged. they're usually just military or dark. okay. all most of you i was, oh yes, i mean, you know, it's control and designed for now 4 to 4 years actually. uh oh the all. and the, i see that old retreat is all the regimes of being worked on and they'll be dismantled and disappearing. and that's very, very actually save. busy so i don't know what i'm seeing now unfortunately. yeah. if i, if i press pessimistic pessimists, the nickel are very, very, very briefly evict. so we are running out of time. i mean, like any mexican stand off, all of the, well as nuclear power is all pointing the weapons potentially at each other for that to be we'll progress. everybody needs to single, tirelessly put down the weapons and back away. what needs to happen, victor?

to encourage a diffusion of these tensions, it is very difficult at this moment. and i think also the most thing call is now is to bring the water ukraine to a stop as quickly as possible to prevent it from escalating from conventional warfare to create a welfare. and from of preventing it from spinning all that to all the neutral member states. because otherwise mankind is playing with fire when this walk in your credit because small data, if it is left to as a to is give mice explodes in the way. and then it is not only that you create him, people will suffer the consequences mankind as a whole world of stuff for the covers is all as it is pro, just possible you'll create, that's great. it's time to stop the will of it to and mankind is playing with fire . it has been an illuminating of some will bleed conversation. hopefully we found something to be hopeful of the carrying stable. nicolai's talk of victory. go

a pleasure. tap all 3 of you on inside story and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i would just 0. don't com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you could also join the conversation on x or handle is h a inside story for me, the bulk of the whole team. here it is. the . i think i just as a product does it is a rescue for way we travelers most are crossing africa looking for a possible way to you or some are coming back the other way and their stories are chilling. reminder of the dangers to, to my ahead, the safe haven at the crossroads of hope and despair.

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