it's an a supporter of international filmmakers, some world class journalist spring programs to enforce and inspired to options await us in the immediate future. quite a crisis for climate revolution on alger 01 said stay, can it runs presidential elections and radians are choosing a success a to the late abraham, the e. c. a, with the supreme lee, the wielding enormous palace. how much difference with a new president may and how's this phone viewed both regionally? envelope late, this is inside story. the hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's. i then following the southern death of president abraham, the se in a helicopter crash last month,

voters in the ron now tutoring his successor. the guardian council initially approved 6 male candidates from a pool of 80. they include one reformist and 5 conservatives, but some dropped out the nation facing political unrest, economic challenges, and tension with the west, over the nuclear program. the stakes, all high, and potential conflict between israel and 11 and further increases that significance. so what pos might, the country take off to the vote? what might be the outcome for a wrong? and for the world, we'll discuss all of this shortly. but 1st, this report by x of zion, of which inflation at record levels and widespread short digits of essential goods. after years of sanctions imposed by the you, why sydney you, you ran is, are choosing the new president a month after that that they'll be breaking recei many said they have little hope of meaningful change. but i am not going to vote because presidents can do anything

. they don't have the authority to do anything. so people liked is very expensive and estimated 61000000 people are eligible to vote. and the supreme council, this calling for hi participation with discontent, growing the decline turned out in previous selection suggests fewer iranians are doing so many believe corruption or like a real choice of candidates and the burden of sanctions. one of the ways of china is who we just sanctioned. make it to you. i think you're going any one of these 2 of the wine crops had ran so you can give me ease. we are obviously having get your body is going to national pray. the evaluation of you run your own car and see the government needs rationing gabby of the resources for inc boards and solve these goods. they seem to subsidize raid and some not, and that's why the opportunities for drain, c, k, g and gain day pray, meeting watching an easy training, a small i mean

a new president will also have to deal with high temp, the regional tensions over a throws war and gaza to warren, human and strained relations with the west over its nuclear program. 6 candidates were about to then approved by the supreme guardian council of to 3 frontrunners. one is that or before missed and the other 2 conservatives, they are se jelly, a former chief nuclear negotiator and secretary of the supreme national security council. and mohammed ball got to call the boss the speaker of parliament says 2020 who previously served this. the runs mayor and police chief must suit possess key on his back by several reformers groups as well as former presidents mohammed cut on me and how sign or honey with a reform as president b might be seeing more efforts to engage with west and countries, particularly the european ones, but i'm not certain, you know, this can be success. so because the failure of the next day until the president is

only the 2nd most powerful person in iran, behind the supreme leader. but the post carry significant authority within the executive power. many iranians will be hoping the president will exercise to bring change, so their lives and their country axles. i much out a 0 for inside story when i was bringing a panel of experts to explain the significance of these elections, we have joining us from to hold on. how so that's my dion. he's a senior fellow at the center for middle east strategic studies in washington, dc. i live via is project director on the ron at the international crisis group. and a former seen the, a political affairs office at the united nations. and joining us from bay. ruth, this sammy, neither is the director of the the vine to institute for strategic affairs. welcome to inside store one. let me start with us on into her on then. so how

representative 1st of all, all these elections, when the list of candidates have been whittled down from 80 to just 6, jo, a, there have been all sorts of arguments on that. so you see the bar is so low. anyone can basically run for president, but bender back in process brings the number down it has in the case for over 4 decades. and the guardian cons so usually is test basically with the, with a padding process that brings up the main candidates or contenders for the president of the main numbers. i mean, the, the real, you know, name, but has some, let me jump in, even the president, senior figure is what bob from running this time. why? well, each one we, we basically don't know exactly. you see the guardian con, so is not trying to stand. and how we does the candidates,

and we don't exactly know why and how it is reading them. but the, according to reports, it's basically about 12 members. they bring up the person, his resume and, and basically what, what, what he does basically in, in his current position. and then they hold a vote according to reports, a larger johnny, for instance, got 5 votes, oppose it, basically pull the, proving him and 7 opposing. and so he was not qualified. and i think the others also are the same way. so we know it's not clear cause as to why each and every a candidate is qualified or disqualified. we know that the the,

the body basically holds a boat and then each candidate is either qualified or disqualified. they make that decision. all right, sammy, neither will this, these things impact voter turnout, faulty or expectations according to what we're seeing and what to the following. the main challenge is to have a high turn off, or if it turn out that is acceptable or that is in line with international standard . but according of what we are following from the news that that to that is expected to doesn't seem to need those standards. maybe because a lot shed also that any population has a loss to a trust in the system that is in place. well, what will that mean, sammy, i mean, if this turns out to be another low turn out off the low turn out in march

parliamentary elections of around 41 percent. and let's not forget rec, hold low to announce in the history of presidential elections in iran, in the last presidential election in 2021, which is only 48.8 percent because for the last, for 2 years. and despite the fact that today is aware of that action that we're taking this and sometime this election a brute and in you the, the, and you and he and all but, but this a faded, showed off a changing anything. get that 3 things to the agenda the policy um, the fact is that at the end of the day the, the one that makes that easy decision is the person that is at the head of the deputy domain, which is the. so a supreme guide that is taking fine indeed the whole decision that he lying on the

pick on god that are a that mean instrument to controlling the system. talking about the head of the parent made um, let's take the question now. i live in washington dc. how do we see a clear front run out when you look at the polls? well, the not always over live allow they some of place possess can sometimes in 1st or 2nd place, but they're all kind of the top 3 candidates, all kind of close between 20 to 25 percent they are absolutely there. so within the margin of error from one another, there was an expectation that some of the conservative candidates would drop out so that their boat doesn't break down. and if indeed mister j. e or mr. already bought with withdrawn in favor of one another. they're on their arms of getting through the 1st round of their actions,

getting over 50 percent of the vote would increase a significant bit. but these 2 individuals are old conservative rivals, and it does not appear likely that they would compromise, they didn't 11 years ago in another present for elections in 2013. that led to the opposite victory of packed matters to presidents assign ronnie. and so we'll have to see 2 conservative candidates dropped out today. mister is kindly unpack yesterday is that all of these are this, but uh they were pulling pretty low. so i don't expect that to make a major difference. i'm use of positioning on in case that neither of the 2 conservative candidates, dropouts will likely go to a 2nd round run off on july 5th with one of these 2 conservative candidates. and that can create a really pull arrive situation in which the participation could change and impact increase. that's an interesting prediction, sammy. now that if this does go to

a 2nd round, what will that mean in terms of the chances of the loan reform of versus the conservative? what does it mean for the chances? what does it mean for the region? do you think is the region watches this? i mean what the fees for that each and that means or not? because at the end of the day, what is at stake as the line, the new president was the bank and mind that when it comes to foreign policy and when it comes to the uranian behavior. and the reason that this is something that is in the hands of the supreme god, a god as mentioned, but definitely the impact of the election just uh, in the case where any floor or the one that can do that, that 30 percent change would make it through the test when at

ease in mind you a tense situation at that there's so seen in country slide live on, on and, and live in your all, especially the, the, the, uh, the, this would have an impact on the lot as was of the population that are not in she does it and on the time it does get going to a 2nd round. do you agree with those on a psych going to a 2nd wrong might help a reformist candidates that it will create a dynamic and this dynamic can turn or can impact the hit in dynamic. and these are countries when uh, for instance, demonstration took place in iran, lately that happened this had a huge impact on the use in this country. we seen a campaign off for support and some of the been easier in universities,

a supporting the case of for this student who were uh, beating due to death. so in case that that is a sign that change is possible. i think that this was a trigger about a dynamic in those society or i will pick up mold is lot small to talk about in terms of the region as well as global implications. not be what we do that one and go back to the house and into around and talk a little bit about economy. what's at stake here? how different all the economic policies of the candidates when it comes to issues like inflation, unemployment, and so on. the things that really bites of people's pocketbooks. well, that's the main challenge that whomever is elected. moving forward is still going to face their debates. show that the main concern and the main

basically issue that was to pay the difference in our program. start brought up by that and by them, by the candidates we're focused on you can economy, which is basically reflective of what the society is, is concerned with the candidates now that it's, it's the economy that attract people and voters to them. and they put towards their agenda, economic agenda, we are a, with this inc, has split between 2 camps. basically when it comes to economic with the find, you know, tackling, they can amik challenges. one that focuses on capacity building within which belongs mainly to the conservative candidates, a continuation of the raise, the administration policies, and another one which was brought up by put one i'm at the end to mainly position

beyond who says, basically we cannot do much without a power of tracking foreign policy, dealing with global powers, specifically on but nuclear issue to these the impact of sanctions. these to, you know, arguments were made and i think the position kion and are for miss champ, lincoln, the economics to foreign policy has seen a, basically, a previous, the have been very much resonating within the society. we don't, we should them forget that presidential honey a link that to and he got the boats and i think position john did the same though. the goals don't show that which will resonate resonance within the society. but i think that linkage is, is critical in the minds of many rainbows. and if, as the id mentioned that it actually has on has to be set the poles the residence.

but could it be argued that the reason we sometimes see position and in 1st or 2nd place in the polls is precisely because the public hoping that his so we say soft, the position on relations with the west might translate into an easing of sanctions and back to rock economic times for radians. of course, but 11 years ago, honey made the case. he got uh, you know, a huge support by the voter turnout. and he was elected in the 1st round of the elections. but the polls don't show that a, that a friend in this elections may be if we move on to a 2nd round with possession kion against one of the conservative contenders polarization might lead to more connection in the minds of iranians between the economics and foreign policy right,

and that's basically what they are for mr. banking on i think. all right, so we've got to keep them ally on whether this goes and how quickly goes to another round alley. whenever we talk about the economy. of course we got to mention the big question, can it be turned around without dealing with the issue of sanctions, which means dealing with the issue of the ron nuclear file and how that is perceived by the west. you look, it's very interesting because in 2021 when the present race, it came to office. i think the regimes of general perception was that with a real belief and focus on an economy of resistance, which prime energy relies on their wrongs internal capabilities. and also pivots into the east and doing more trade with russia and china and yvonne's, the immediate neighbors that wouldn't be able to turn the economy around. and

especially because all the instruments of power were also controlled by a conservative. so expectation was that with lower fiction, there will be more efficiency and, and the system, all of those plans turn out to be an absolute illusion in the running and economy is now in more trouble than it has ever been before. and the running people as a result of others suffering. and there's a lot of associates and amik discontents in the country. indecent actions of 3 of the 2 out of the 3 main candidates. mr. business got on this stuff out about how admitted that sanctions really, really is an essential part of any funds for turning the economy around. mr. jenny to the also right candidate is still in denial and still believes in continuation of the same approach that in the race the administration did not bear fruit. the problem, that is mr. position, although he's surrounded by the front of the friend will be ryan diplomat. has not put forth any practical plans on how he wants to tackle the diplomatic challenge of

resulting the new through a sound of what the west of mister volleyball has put forth. a very narrow plan which is based on a series of step by step measure is that the best could provide it wrong with some degree of for time economics for free. it's certainly not a long term solution to it runs economic challenges. of course mr. volleyball is bogged down with all sorts of allegations of corruption, which would, and cast a shadow on his presidency, is the option ali is a big issue, isn't that the, can any of the candidates make a difference on that? malays, you could say the other great malays that's eating at the range in economy briefly . a cynical, uh, because uh that kind of, uh, uh, you know, really real a fine with corruption requires the kind of structural changes that are very unlikely in the running system. especially if you have

a split between the governments of and on elected institutions. if the government is in the hands of the reformers and conservatives control on elective institutions, it reduces the chance of success. all right, before i go to sammy, i want to ask these questions where we kind of fit into the issue of relations with the west. when you look at what the candidates have been saying on that issue, well delete lee is been talking about how iran doesn't need really relations with the us in the west. because this can, on the other hand, well he's spoken against the idea or wrong being perpetually in the state of hostile relations with the us. how much variance do, can these candidates actually bring to the table when it comes to actually policy and re relationships with the us and the west? in terms of farm policy, we know that the record strategies are set on a conceptual basis in the supreme national security council. but the,

the administration's plan is a key role in form policy. and that is the process done tend a number of his ministers will be members after being elected and appointed a members of the supreme national security concepts. so they can block card, they can test their, their agenda when it comes to foreign policy. the priorities are usually set by the administration. they basically are the ones who focus on either. so you go on, you focused on negotiations with the p 5 plus one. right? you see focused on the move to the east and the region. so the administration has a lot to do with foreign policy, though, there are a guard players that you, they should observe that to the conceptual mechana isn't within the supreme national security because of that they can effect eventually. so there is, it's a question of degree perhaps. so i mean that the, another way of looking at this, sammy might be, does the relationship may be, have,

is not true or even more to do with who wins that of a big race going on in the world? the race for the white house? definitely, i think that this is a said the elephant in the room and this is the next election that will impact the this one or the result of the union election with the drum the be the winner or by then be the one that extra by then would be the one that, that there is a good, a chance that things will go to the negotiation a button. and in my view that are a high chances that the, that are in agreement on done and disagree, or a, or then you create a fine with the, at each actually, and negotiation are still taking place between the 2 pots. but what if, and this is very likely today, according to pause as the drum, when adapt presidency,

knowing that trump was do i mean from its commitment from the g, scipio a and cancel the agreement? and this was, in my view, squander any chances off, nor monetization between the u. s. and you're not the only place to the alley. how realistic is it the thing that they could be returned to and the wrong nukes they deal, even if by then wins the race to the white house again? i don't think it's realistic any more, the, the, you know, the facts on the ground. they've changed. so much that the 2015 deal is no longer a response to the requirements of either side. you know, a roster program is now to advance to be rolled back and put in a box which for turn constrains and transparency measures that will be satisfying to the west or israel. and it's a 20 year soft record of the west fading to provide it wrong with effective and

sustained both sanctions are needed. so there is a need for a new kind of deal with iran, which doesn't, no longer includes the p 5 plus one because even that a power valence no longer exists because of the sites as times the rush through. so that the hands on the land to rise, right? sorry, back to us. you have on find it in a couple more questions. full time. runs out. back to sammy, you mentioned the conflicts. what's at stake here for some of the regional hot spots, whether we're talking about lebanon garza yemen. i'll we, i mean, if you look at some of the opening and statements and the opening parliamentary session in april, had muhammed a volleyball praise iran support for the access of resistance. whereas position and foreign policy advise the jobs that a former found that as the warning and these men was against intervention by the revolution regards in the rain and foreign policy, they all seem to be some difference between the positions of these candidates when

it comes to to foreign policy, particularly regional issues, right? a dozen or 2, there is a difference if a concern about that, when that means that the current policy with the state is in place and you are on with be at backing guy organization like i'm us, i'm terrible at the detriment of citizenship with the on the go, what i'm instructing almost or the government may be maybe with the exception of syria today. and this despite the recent opening cost of get on to these countries because this kind of policy is perceived very negatively by those government. they are seeing it and attempt to from iran, right, establish the decision that they use it to consider as a very strategic the set for the yeah. all right. a quick question for how some into from what difference do the candidates bring to the relationship between the

president and the supreme leader and how much power does the present really have? but it's perceived that uh, the conservative candidates are closer and that wants you to the supreme leader. so the supreme leader has worked with the people from across the spectrum over the decades. the difference that, but he's a point to people like to say even jelly leave to several positions, whereas he made comments about counting on progress coming from the us, which was seen as on the mining mas who does it scans position right now. well, that's the one argument, but also he appointed the id from hon year for missed as the head of the best supreme national security concert before beth, i need not be johnny. so he worked with people from across the spectrum on different administrations, though, as i said, he's believes to be closer and has one's view to the conservative camp. but the president brings change to the,

to the country and that he wrong as the main branch of government and avon, he manages the, the can all makes the social life and inform policy. as i said, he's attractive. so the change can happen, whether it's a conservative or a reformist. all right, well i guess time is going to tell we're going to have to sign call guess and leave it. that has an idea, i revise. and so i mean that if i am fine, q 214, you can see the show again, any time by visiting our website. how does 0 don't com for further discussion head over to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com. forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x l handle. there is a j inside story from may. so i may say that on the whole team here for now is combine the, the odd his amy interviews is israel and obstacles piece. i think that the new

thing you have on his government with these says 5 digit, you say getting russell, a thought provoking on the e you made weapons of being used in gaza. no guns should be used in an offensive way. that's our facing realities. you're running mean, what does he bring to the table? hard from the presidential go to some we cannot take the fact that he was signing up, present as not the need for the fact that he had the story on talk to how does era presidency manual not call surprised phones by calling us not to mention just weeks before the live big games in powers of do a search of support for marine the penn national run, the policy will look down to pay all over the country. no cheaper to the to the far right. how does the print connections without the

ok, so we start with driving forces. those are what are the emissions going to be? and it's not that easy. if you think about it, what are we going to be doing? $3050.00, a 100 years from now. that's going to cause human beta missions. how does the political system going to respond? how does the human psyche get a response? there you get an area which is really impossible to predict. and the question then becomes, how do you fix up between these events? how do you recover from a hurricane before you have time to really fix the damage? the question i guess we might, as of drake, they'll pick up next time is. why do we do nothing?

the thank you. the, [000:00:00;00] the hello a why money inside you? this is the news on life from coming up in the next 60 minutes to get president william russo and is economic policies is protests on the streets of. can you refuse to dive down as our loan cheese and military operation on this guy, a neighborhood east of gall suspension? miss 8 palestinians have been killed. utilize nations says the conflict and saddam