lebanese filmmaker documents has lied to one of the country's most turbulent times, the appeal, the anxious and fatal. a witness documentary on this josie and donald trump. tax is likely opponents in the presidential election as a rather collab lunatics. campbell, a higher as highlights from convictions and scandals saying he offers chaos fahrenheit. so what kind of campaign would it be between the 2? this is inside story, the hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a that now donald trump in his new opponents in the us presidential election, cadillac harris, and wasted no time attacking each other. on the campaign trial,

trump labeled towers an extreme fall left. this was his 1st speech since president joe biden dropped out. alexandria harris highlighted from his criminal conviction and financial scandals. she contrasted them with her right cold in law enforcement . american politics is rarely for the faint of heart, but this selection of the last or the looks like it's shaping out for new levels of hostility. so what do these are the exchanges tell us about the campaign to come? we'll be discussing this with on guess shortly. but 1st, this report from veronica pedrosa. republican candidates, donald trump, has used his 1st campaign speech since june biden dropped out of the election to attack his new opponent. if kamala harris gets into, would be the most radical, far left extreme is ever to occupy the white house times that there's never been

a lunatic like this in the white house. and we've had some bad ones. i have, she went home to blame cala harris for what he says is one of the fight in administration stages. security along the us mexico border. she supports the criminalizing a legal border crossings, and she supports mis amnesty for all the leg. i'll stick to the pump. the vice president has mapped out for her campaign pools. the puff to victory, drawing on her background as a lawyer, a full mikaela fornia attorney general. she's been quick to describe prompt as a convicted felon. i took on perpetrators of all kinds. creditors who abused women fraudsters, who ripped off consumers, cheaters who broke the rules for their own game. so here me when i say i know donald trump's type is selected, harris would be the 1st woman to serve as us president bush and what to expect it

to be a major issue in her campaign. it's one area where she has an advantage of it from among with any votes as well. let me tell you something. when i am president of the united freedom, i will sign it into law. president biden has cooled his endorsement of how is the best decision he's ever made, and several crowds need voters to feel the same way. if harris is to succeed him, the for armando pedroza, i'll just bear with the inside story. when i spring on guess into the show, we have joining us from washington, dc. eric ham, a political analyst and coal for all the g o. p. civil war inside the by whole for the soul of the republican policy. in cambridge, massachusetts,

thomas gift director of the center on us politics that university college london. his research focuses on comparative politics and the political economy. and also in washington dc, jennifer victor, an associate professor of political science at the shop school of policy and government at george mason university. i'm more than welcome to one if i could start with jennifer jennifer, looking at the latest speeches by both donald trump and campbell of how it says it looked like this campaign is now going to be even more personal, even more vicious. well, i think the expectation, uh, even before the change in canada see was that this would be a pretty vicious campaign to use your words. the electorate is closely divided by all accounts. it seems like this will very likely be a close election. and, and just by, i judge that just based on the poli and so whenever you have a political situation where you have a tight races where each side believes that there is sort of some very dramatic

negative consequence from losing. it really tends to amp up the rhetoric and, but just for the, of these hopes, at least also the assassination attempt on donald trump. that may be, the rhetoric might come down. does it look like those homes are gone? this is going to be a bad knuckles. fight with no holds bob. yeah, so the best predictor for future behavior is past behavior. and i, we have a lot of evidence from donald trump about how he treats his political opponents. he tends to treat his political opponents with a very insulting kind of d, legitimizing kind of kind of air. and while he did gain quite a bit of sympathy after the assassination attempt, and we did see to some extent a little bit of a softening of the rhetoric for a brief moments at the are. and so you from him. but it does not look like that's gonna stick, and i'm not sure that we should expect it to eric, looking again at the latest campaign speeches. does it look like the trump strategy

here going forward is to try and put try campbell, a harris as a radical leftist, a song with a very extreme position on abortion. he called the president or the, the republicans, a triangle is a present for criminals and illegal aliens. and yeah, i think that's part of the playbook that we're going to see from the republicans moving forward. and also to, i think while there has been already some approach by republicans to integrate her based on race and gender, i think where they might be able to actually gain ground is actually focusing on her policies. i think continuing to go after her based on identity politics might not work, especially given such a tight race there were in and of course this could be decided on the margins and the focus should be on trying to win back some of those independence and suburban women, and i think going after identity politics is not going to do much to help with either of those constituencies. thomas, on the other hand,

looking at pamela harris's latest speeches, does it look like her strategy is simply one of, of, for trying this as a choice between formal prosecute and the felon going off. the trump as a convicted felon who's a threat to america. and she's the one who can save that country because she's to be a prosecute to what's a large extent, i think that that's correct. and i think for harris, for strategy is largely to keep the line light on donald trump. she really wants this election to be a referendum on his for years where it was an office where there was chaos, where there was multiple. and peach means you know, where there was so many scandals and many scandals in between. i think her message to borders is, do you really want to return to that lack of normalcy happened the last 4 years actually been a relief from such vitriol. and so to the extent that she can pay,

and donald trump as a convicted felon and linked that into the broader conversations about his challenges to democratic institutions and norms. she's on sure 40 eric, looking at where things stand. now i know it's still early on in the campaign between these 2, in particular, trump and kind of the house as a presidential presumptive presidential nominee who's arguments. do you think when you look in your crystal ball, who's arguments do you think is gonna win over? look like it's going to win over the swing voters and those independence as well as on sure and to protect. it's not exactly what it's going to happen data day. but what we're saying is sense that debate debacle by joe biden. donald trump has no, it has no longer been the star of this political campaign show. it's been all about the democrats, specifically about joe biden, when he stay in when he adds the race. now that he is out now that com,

what harris has been has has of send it to the top of a ticket. so much of the options not to do so much of the energy is now focused around democrats and complement harris. and quite frankly, what the trump campaign needs to do right now is actually try to find a way to actually get more of the attention back on them back on their agenda. what they would prefer to do is actually try to pay a narrative, accommodate harris in a way that it would be negative. very similar to what brock obama did submit rodney back in 2012. but because so much of the attention is on complet harris right now. i don't think that's going to happen and so it looks like there's going to be a climb for the republican in this race right now, because it doesn't appear, they got much of a bought out of the assassination attempt or even out of the convention. and now all lies are not only on pamela harris, but who her b pick will be. and of course, what happens in chicago next month. so the spotlight on the democratic camp a bit of a, a reach you in going on jennifer,

would you say actually for both democrats and republicans because of vitamins decision to pull out? yeah, absolutely. i mean, we've, we've not been in this situation before and watching the democratic party change the candidate at the top of their ticket and almost immediately coalescing around that new candidate has been quite a phenomenon. i mean, if you were scripting it in advance, i'm not sure you could've scripted some sort of smooth or more sort of successful kind of transition from one to the other. the end and the democratic coalition has been coming together with sort of an impressive as veracity the. busy republicans on the other hand, on a little surprised that it seemed to be caught a bit flat footed. they didn't seem to be prepared for this potential shift, even though there was quite a bit of speculation about it. and they haven't quite honed in on exactly what their messaging is going to be against tomlin harris. and so i think we're just gonna have to give them a little bit of time to find their footing. in the meantime,

while they're doing that i, i agree with the, with eric that, you know, the democrats have the spotlight on them and, and this is not the favorite position for donald trump or, or the republicans. the democrats have a, an advantage though, because they haven't had their convention yet. and there's a lot of attention right now on who might be the vice presidential running mate for comma la harris. and so i expect the campaign to sort of draw that speculation out . so that they can keep the attention on them right up until their convention in a similar way that the republicans did. they're also trying to shift some attention with the not a child attacking each other on a personal level of thomas an attempt by the democrats on the one hand to try and tie trump to project 2025, that conservative policy blueprint we should point out. because it is not an official republican policy document, but is that positives, the approach to try and, and tie that document extreme. what is seen is very extreme policies with donald

trump and say, this is a threat to democracy. i think that's what we so project 20. 25 is a document that a large part was written by former trump associates in age. it's affiliated with the with the heritage foundation, which is the right way. some tact. i do think 200 stats uh, you know, democrats are going to have success with that message by painting the trumpet as kind of radically right wing and outside of the mainstream. at the same time, the trump administration has pushed back at the kennedy as soon as i get enough success to win over on decided votes has to do things up, kind of harris can pull it off as well. that's ultimately going to depend on how some of these issues resonate with swing voters in places like pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin. i still think based on the pulling, the trump maybe have some marginal advantage. but i do think that come with hers is pulling numbers aren't necessarily fixed. americans are just now starting to get to

know her. she has an opportunity to kind of offer a 2nd 1st impression, so to speak and define her candidacy. i agree that she was in a vice president is going to be very important and kind of directing what that trajectory will be going forward. whether she chooses someone more of the progressive left to can galvanized the base or a centrist, probably governor, like josh bureau in pennsylvania to really a locked in those more moderate assembles. hold that for thomas. you've raised 2 really important points which we do want to talk about what the latest polls might in the case and who are running might might be for a couple of hours. but before we go, the, i want to ask eric, looking at as well how the republicans have tried to focus on issues. does it look so far? they don't a sofa focus so much on the policy issue. history of campbell, a house as much as they have focused on trying to tie camelot harris the some of

the policy issues which was seen as weak points for joe biden. we're talking about, you know, inflation bullet is immigration. yeah, that's right. but i think what we're seeing here is just the republican party that simply hasn't found it's putting on how to actually come back this new candidate. this is a party that is now struggling. and now they're just throwing a lot of things up the wall to see what sticks. but i do believe their issue. republicans have primarily focused on the issue of the border and immigration. and so i think there is that is an area where they could have some traction. we know that when big bind, harris administration came in to walk with one of the 1st task that was given to campbell, a harris was that of the water. and so i do believe there could be wrong for a more robust policy discussion, but of course we know that simply isn't in donald trump to bailey with that is not how he likes to campaign or go after its opponent. he does so i think in a more personal way. and so i don't think you're going to see it. donald trump, as

a candidate lead with policy differences or contrast, it's going to be more personal with policy issues more as a more in the backdrop for as a secondary measure to use as a called your against his opponent. that's an interesting point. briefly, thomas, does that explain and will it help campbell of harris to have democratic heavy weights like former president bach obama, appear on the campaign. try with her as a, as a way of counseling. some of what eric was saying, we might expect from the republican party of this sort of personal attacks on her as a crazy lunatic. les this say no, actually she rub shoulders with the main stream heavy weights of the democratic comp. well, come on harris. whenever she was in the center did voting record that was among the most liberal child in that chamber. so i do think is that she's going to get pushed back by republicans on the accusation that she is outside of mainstream that should

pushing that progressive agenda. so i do think that it's important to talk some moderates out on the campaign trail challenging for as a candidate, we've seen the clintons come out before calmer. harris. i think brock obama is just a matter of time, and course you're finding endorsed or so that's going to be important because most of the attacks from republicans are going to be about the fact that she's a trojan horse for the far left. very similar to what was done in 2020 against job . i'm jennifer. let's talk a little bit about the indications that you can call it out about what independent voters might be. the fact that the democrats have raised, i think it's like a $126000000.00 since sunday, and the, the more and told them to find maybe that 64 percent of it coming from 1st time donors is that indicated that harris is reaching new donors, new voters, young voters, some of the swing vote his or are we reading too much into the number as well?

i think mostly what we're seeing is an incredible sort of storage of excitement around for candidacy. but those that both of the total number in terms of the, you know, over a $100000000.00 being raised in such a short period of time. that's just we haven't seen that before as really unheard of. and that a majority of that money was donated by people who hadn't donated previously, really suggests that the democrats may have done the right thing here by changing the candidate at the top of their ticket. because now they have a candidate that people can really get excited about and, and get behind jennifer, do you know as, as what was going on? don't as are, are they the young, the old or they, you know, independence, do we have any sort of thoughts or about them? know, when people make those contributions, they're only required to disclose sort of where they are and in their occupation. and so we don't have specific demographic data on those daughters. we could maybe

in the future do some surveys to try to assess that out. and i'm sure, as you know, it's very, it's very early days. it's only been a few days since she sort of stepped in the, into the spotlight and we're, we're, we're going to be looking at polls. we're going to be looking at various types of endorsements from interest groups, and continue to look at those campaign finance numbers to see if he can sustain that kind of excitement. further. at the moment, if you combine the candidate more chest with the outside money, that both the republicans and democrats have for trumping harris at this point. it's close to similar. donald trump's totals around $450.00 or so a $1000000.00 in ann harris is around 4 and a quarter. maybe harris has more in contributions to her campaign. whereas trump has more outside support, which has been typical of the last number of cycles between republicans and democrats. and so what i'm going to be looking for is whether those trends stay the same over the coming weeks as things kind of settle in here. all right,

jennifer mentioned the calls here, so it's probably a good time to start talking about them. love them, hate them, leave them. but they do play a role eric down there. let me pull out one of the latest ones, the sawgrass paul published wednesday. it shows carmella harris, gaining more support from the young voters, women, black and hispanic photos. how much face do you rely on on the poles at this stage it's as jennifer said, it's only been just a few days since you entered the rice. well, i don't think we should put too much stock in the polls, even though on some level they are indicative of where the race stance, at least in that moment. however, what we know is going all the way back to 2022. uh, many of the polls simply did not. they actually under valued democrats in many of these races, which is why any, a lot of special alexis democrats have actually been so successful. and also i

think what we're seeing in these polls that i think do have some residents is that donald trump, even if you go back 220162020 hits his ceiling has always been in the low fourties right now. it's looking like it's a box 46 percent. so i think what we're seeing here is once again donald trump has had a ceiling. and i think that ceiling simply isn't enough to get him over that 50 percent threshold, which is where i think he's going to find trouble. i think with cumberland harris, i think the verdict is still allowed on what her final numbers look like. but what we do know is that she does have room to grow and we're seeing a lot of that growth are ready, particularly with change among young people, african americans, and of course women as well. so i think what, what this means is, while the pose might, i think, be all over the place right now. i think some number, some things that do remain the same is donald trump has a ceiling issue that he's going to have to address. commer harris,

of course we know is trying to break one of the oldest glass ceilings in american poet 6. and the question is going to be which one of these candidates is going to break out of that ceiling? whoever can do so. certainly when you know, talking about the polls being all over the place, that's exactly the kind of picture i think we're seeing on. we thomas, let me quote to another poll. reuters itself, paul, completed on tuesday. that one was when it showed harris actually leading donald trump by 2 percentage points. whereas the s s r s paul, which i mentioned earlier. well, that shows the opposite. trump leading harris by 3 percentage points. now, the picture obviously not entirely clear that both in the margin of error, but is it in a sense, slightly better than use full capital harris compared to the sort of policy he's been hearing for by than before, which were mostly or quite frequently putting him behind donald trump as well,

a few points here. one is that these national polls can be somewhat concealing of what the numbers look like in g swing states. and ultimately it's in key swing states where the selection is going to be decided. the 2nd point is that common carriage is still very much in her honeymoon period. right. and now she just announced, or she just became a nominee. there's a lot of excitement, a lot of enthusiasm. i think there's sort of turned out demand within the democratic party about having a change at the top of a ticket. now they have to change at the top of the ticket. and so of course, much of the media and process focused on the fact that she would be sort of the 1st a woman to hold the white house that you would be the 1st woman of color to gain that position. i think whenever you look at the polls now though, it's just too early to tell, i think that starts does have an opportunity to grow and those numbers, but she also has an opportunity to decline,

which is why i think ultimately americans are just now getting a serious look at her and trying to make the decisions about whether to support her tendency. jenna. so let's talk a little bit about one issue that we sole and has been credited with biden's withdrawal from the race debating skills. do you think the archery performance that we should expect from come on house is going to be on a different level given that background as a prosecutor, a go? absolutely. she's a, she's a skilled debaters. she's a field presenter. she's a skilled speaker. she has a, a, like a robust personality that i think comes through well on camera and, and she is used to being in sort of confrontational situations because of her experience as a prosecutor. so this is definitely going to be a more of an asset for the democrats going forward, particularly relative to bite and who got

a lot of sort of sympathy for overcoming some of his challenges in that area in his life, in a way that i think was very endearing to a lot of americans that they could, that makes him very reliable. but as sort of on the, the metrics of public speaking skills. there's no question that cala harris has some real advantages there relative to, bye. all right, also eric, a question here about who the running made for campbell of harris might be. there's a much discussion, much research over the is about the question of why the sarah piling costs john mccain some of those independent voters and the 2008 contest. how key is the running mate here for cetera, for capital harris. you know, we think about running mates, i think it's sort of a spank list has because well, running may certainly don't, i think for power you to victory, i guess, depending on who you pick, they can be damaging to be the campaign. ultimately. like many my suggest with

sarah kayla and i think that's perhaps what's happening also with j. d band. and donald trump, a j d man. she just didn't bring anything to the table was a political lightweight, having only served, going to send it for less than 2 years. and now so much of his record, particularly around women, is becoming an issue for him. i think where this could actually bolster campbell, the harris is that her selection will say a lot about how she actually manages a different role in the assignment of being commander in chief. i think when many wins when sarah peddling was selected, there were those who perhaps question john mccain's question, his ability in terms of, you know, picking someone like her. whereas i think in this distance, i think there are so many potential really great candidates, had comma harrison disposal that could actually bring her uh, bring her advantages and key states. i think she's got a really,

really bone here in terms of what she can do in terms of this. everything sounds like you're right as long as all don't really mess it up and picking your vice presidential running mate. it shouldn't really be too much of an issue. i my power of phrasing you correctly as well. that's right, but i think also to i think she's got some real opportunities here. josh pearl and in pennsylvania, mark shelley of arizona, roy cooper, of north carolina. these are people who i think could actually be very well and delivering the state and also at 2 to 3 points i think to the overall outcome of this race. and so i think she's got a lot of choices at our disposal. oh, i think we've got 60 seconds thomas, a final full. it's been said, this is the honeymoon period. what does it matter as look like then when the honeymoon is over? if during the honeymoon already singing model, each of those characters i would certainly agree that this is going to be a vicious camp and this is the way the trump is always kind of pain. it's because

his base is galvanized by it. i don't think that we should expect anything different. you know, the fact that there were some speculations about, you know, maybe from turning over or under the waste after the assassination attempt. i think we saw the republican national convention and that that's not going to be the case . so there's going to be a lot of them. i mean, between both of these candidates. so kate pill, what proof suits on as we follow this campaign, i think is the advice that stein con guests been a great show. thomas gift eric, ham, and jennifer, victor, i'm fine q 2 for watching. you can see the show again, any time by visiting our website. i'll do 0, don't com for further discussion and head over to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. can also join the conversation on x. our handle is that a j inside story from me. so i may say that and, and the whole team here. so now is go by the,

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