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tv   The Bottom Line  Al Jazeera  August 15, 2024 7:30pm-8:01pm AST

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the former medical students who couldn't continue his studies and exclusive socializing space, often women who appreciate the space on the phone. i'm happy to be here because the girls stand on their own feet. and the minute i'm a customer of this cafe because we didn't have such a place. i'll be a customer of this cafe forever. second trouble, this is what the bob's busy days looked like. the male and female workers were busy . we have the whole stuff. people got some order from the local company from the international community, and we will create more jobs on man and woman. and a nation which feels abandoned by the world continues to clutch onto that pool of better days ahead. so i'm a job you. how does their efforts to end? 16 months of conflict in sedan are underway in geneva, but so far, only one side. is there a delegation from the parent military rapids support forces or are assess, has arrived. but representatives from the sydney's army have not turned up.
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mediators a formal negotiations cannot begin with only one side present us secretary of state anthony, blinking has called the army, general abdel, if that's alber, hon urging him to participate in the talks. scientists in the u. k. c. their shot to discover the part of the famous stonehenge monuments came from a lot further away than they originally thought. they found that the alter stone originated 750 kilometers away in northern scotland rather than wales in the west of the u. k. the discovery is raising more questions about how people around 4400 years ago were able to transport huge stones across such distances. a peruvian archaeologist have discovered a sight believed to have been built around 500 years after stonehenge. the nearly 4000 year old burial site was under rest in the northeast of the country. the remains of 4 individuals had been laid to rest on their side, facing the mountains of the roof valley and buried with ornaments. members of the
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research team have urged authorities to protect the sites. a volcanic eruption of mount aetna has caused flight disruptions on the italian island of sicily. the toilets volcano in europe so increased activity over night, releasing fountains of lava and plumes of ash into the air, smoke from the eruption effected pilots visibility near catania international airports. etna is one of the world's most active volcanoes. and that does it from me through a venue as always, there's information on our website on all our top stories that sounds are 0 dot com up next is the bottom line. the all coverage of africa is what i'm most proud of. every time i traveled, whether it's east or west, texas gas, you can stop me and tell me how much they appreciate coverage. and our focus is not just on that suffering, but also on
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a more realistic and inspiring story. people trust to tell them what's happening in their communities in a clear and unbiased and as an applicant, i couldn't be more proud to be part of you know, a hi. i've steve clements and i have a couple of questions. has the middle east diverted all out war? and what are you ron's options now? let's get to the bottom line. the all eyes were on a rom this week as no one could predict when or if it would respond to israel's provocations. earlier this month, israel's assassination of the political head of a mouse is smile, honey, a in t ron and a senior, his block commander 11 on threatened to push the region from the current level of war to a much larger conflict. the could drag in us forces directly, but by dangling the possibility of resumes he's fired talks and gaza has the us neutralize the possibility of an iranian response. and we'll have mosse iran,
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and it runs allies in the middle east. decide that it's better to keep their enemies guessing about their next move, while de linking retaliation against israel, from the latest american effort on gaza. today we're talking with treat a policy executive vice president epic quincy institute for responsible state crap and author of treacherous alliance. the secret dealings of israel iran and the united states treat a thank you so much for joining us on as long as they, how tense a time is this right now when we've had assassinations of a, the former prime minister of palestine inside iran, the killing of a significant has block commander, how fragile is this moment in the middle east? you know, we've had a lot of fragile moments in just the last couple of years and plenty of very, very risky situations. but this i think, is the most fragile, the most difficult one that i can think of for at least the last 15 or so years
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when these raney's choose to assassinate the political leader of a mouse into her, on only hours after the assassin aided that is going to come out there and the world was waiting to see what as well as response one. and even before his bullet managed to respond, these really struck again except a clear message in my view, which is that these relays were quite willing to risk escalation. and perhaps even desire it. and the question now of course is what the response will be from yvonne hezbollah and other actors in the region where you said that i know you've written in time magazine, but you just said it again that maybe the is really, is do not want a more stable situation, perhaps this was by done by design. this was done right after the inauguration of your wants, new president. what do you do? what does the united states do if it has a partner in israel, who is very, very focused on there being a wider, more, a well defined assertion itself is at
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a time in unscripted moments admitted that they do understand that nothing the allies of political interests of prolonging and expounding the war because as i'm sure it's been covered on your show several times, etc far the it will likely collapse that then. yeah. who's coalition governments? once he is out of government, no longer prime minister is in unity is gone and he will be charged for corruption and he will likely end up in jail. so he has a clear personal interest in expanding and continuing the war. the question then is, of course, as you put a, what does the united states do with vida? shouldn't do what he has been to. what he has been doing is essentially show maximum deference to its m. yahoo! even though he understands, and that's in you all's interest is quite clearly different from that of the united states. us interest very clearly is not in favor of a further escalation in the region. certainly not a war in the region that could drag united states into it. the question is,
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of course, then at what point went by then show the backbone to actually use the leverage that the united states does have. but he has chosen not to use us far to actually press these rates to back off, which is of course arms shipments to is are without those are ship arms shipments. these readings would not be able to continue. the war according to one is randy general. they would have to have some more within 5 days if united states stop providing the ammunition and additional lessons. i'm interested in this political equation of so called leverage that we seem in the united states unwilling to use. why do you think that is? i think bided made a very strategically solid calculation from the outset when he'd be or how that's in yahoo locked himself to netanyahu's strategy, presuming that nothing to our would show a degree of reasonable match. and presuming that by showing this degree of support
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of israel, he would actually gain support within is really society which would then make it more difficult and costly for nothing yahoo to oppose by the end or to act against biden's wishes, which is a completely flawed calculation. instead, it has led to a situation in which by it and it's cuz tenuously reacting to nothing, you know, and that's, and you always in the lead all the time. let me also mention why i think it's strategy that bite and shows has actually fueled escalation in the region in and of itself. if you're sitting into wrong right now, your key objective is to prevent these ratings from doing this. again, you want to establish some sort of good terms. they're not looking at for, for a full scale war. if they were, they have plenty of opportunities to start as they have refrain from doing so. even the strikes in april were very clearly designed, not to lead to a larger board. now, how do you then stop these riley's from being able to do this again?
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well, either you have the united states, restrain israel, and prevented from doing so again, given that leverage to us has already vanya is going to have to rely on the tyrants, which in and of itself, is extremely risky, and can cause a broader, more with bite and having shown up for 10 months that he is unwilling to restrain israel. this leaves the volumes them, but only one option less, which is figure out how they can restore deterrence. how they can strike back without causing award. if there had been clear evidence that bite and actually is willing to restrain as well, i think the calculation on the vanya side would be quite different. now, there are some efforts going on right now for a last ditch effort. for a ceasefire. there is a certain likelihood that the wrong, as will refrain from retaliating if there is a ceasefire. but all of this could have been much, much easier, not easy, much easier if that was a factor in this equation. which wise?
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yes, the united states actually is a responsible actor and can restrain as well when israel clearly is acting in ways that are escalate. for some people who begin to say maybe your want, as you've just said, doesn't wonderful on work, but does it run the risk of looking like a paper tiger to its allies that it's not delivering to it's proxies in allies by appearing week when compared to israel i think this is an absolutely crucial factor in turnarounds, calculations if we need, take a look at the conduct of some of its partners in the actions of resistors as they call themselves. you know, it's been clear for the last 10 months. there's a lot of complaints many of them public key by that particularly of who it is, but also iraq yesterday and malicious. who believe that the ron has been a showing too much for screened itself. they did not believe in this strategy on a strategic patients. and at the same time, had been complaining publicly about
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a round restraining them and putting pressure on them, not to for instance, strike of us spaces. we had one moment in which it spokesperson put a who t's laughed at the question that the, which is where a proxy yvonne and said, i can guarantee you if you wrong, if, if, if you're on was calling the shots, if you're wrong, wasn't calling the shots on these different things, if, who does what to do exactly what they want it to. uh, they will not be inside your situation and wish difficulties will not be firing at it as well. so these are firing at agile and it's against everyone's wishes. now that strategy, nevertheless, have had, had some benefits for the audience and they haven't waited what they really don't seem to want, which is a direct confrontation with the us. but if it leads to a situation in which they are now questioning whether yvonne actually is a reliable partner for them, i mean the assassination is, have on sends a signal that any of these individuals can be assassinated anywhere, including and 10 gone. and that's
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a wrong child protective. if that stands that will significantly weak any bonds position. so the one is a very concerned about that scenario, of course. but on the other hand, it direct confrontation with the united states. that is a suicide omission for the volumes, and we've seen for the last 2030 years that they walked a very tight group there. and i have avoided as direct consultation with us. but the fact that they have to be able to show something, i think, also points to the fact that any effort by dividing registration, by just simply moving troops, they are sending signals to the vanya is that they will pay a heavy military price if they actually strike back, it is really in a very significant way, is not sufficient. if you want the ronnie as to not retaliate for this, there has to be more than additional threats. there also has to be some sort of an exits for the wrong in some sort of a way. it's different, for instance, is a c, sorry, and goal is that combine with a ceasefire on the lebanese is really border and perhaps something of something
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they can point to as this is a strategic when and as a result, iran is not going to retaliate. but if there is no such thing on the table and it's just more additional fetched from the united states, then i fear that the balance of the debate in san ron will be that the wrong is actually better off, never the less retaliating. because otherwise, it will be so weak in the region and in front of its partners that it will lose even more leverage. do you think there's a risk venue, ron could lose control over the actions of some of its proxies in syria and lebanon in yemen? that there disaffection with iran, if it doesn't take the steps, could lead to an increase in this conflict because they just decide that they are going to take action if it run doesn't as well. take a look at the assassination of so the money which the main bonny, not only because of the position a ron had, but also because of his persona, has far greater discipline. amongst many of these different militias, some of that or a significant amount of that was actually lost to that assassination. if you now
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have a situation in which the vonny then not responding, uh, these really is continue to slaughter causes us occasionally, does target these militias. eventually you have a scenario in which in that case they may start acting more independently and disregard the wrongs. advice, you also have another scenario in which you're actually is a major confrontation between yvonne has more law. some of these militias in israel, the united states steps into that more. and then any efforts for de escalation will end up becoming much more complicated because it's, it's not just about yvonne or hezbollah, it's about all of these other groups. also a binding by dish and, and very you may end up in a scenario in which some of them will choose to continue because they have their own interest. many of these iraq human issues are doing this because of their sense of revenge against the united states, where the us has invasion of iraq, which is quite different, of course, from yvonne's motivations. so because the equation is getting more complicated
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because of the fact that you have more actors in the equation. but also because this narrative, that tends to view all of them as just proxies of iran, which is a narrative that is very strong and washington is not entirely true in the 1st place, but it will become even less true if this situation escalates. i'm interested in this moment to, from a, how much profile? why would it just immediately tip into what joe biden wants, which is a deal? what, what are her mazda is incentives and disincentives in this moment? a, well, a mazda, one of the deal, very early on, and it's, it's by then have that it has become, you know, arrive at that position somewhat late. remember, in the united states by them wouldn't even use the word cx, 5 for the 1st 2 or 3 months. the mazda offered a ceasefire or a couple of days after october 7. i understand that lee at that time these readings were not interested in it, but then there of course been plenty of other opportunities in which nothing you always deliberately sabotaged was not brought to just of your questions. absolutely . right. after having killed the actual negotiator,
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i mean if there ever was any question as to whether that somehow was interested in a deal having killed the negotiator of the other side. should settled bath debate and we should move on when he comes to uh, uh, debates about that time. yeah. i was intentions. tell us what you know about my suited possession and the new president of your ron and what he wants. maybe not just what he wants, what can he get? he's publicly said you wrote about this that he believes that better relations were more relaxed. tensions with united states are vital to a. ron's economy. has that all just been blown up as well. i seen it, and y'all was hoping to close the window that had been created surprisingly with possess key on election as you know. and it's on yahoo in israel as a whole and have opposed us the wrong diplomacy since the mid 19 ninety's. and that's the only way of self has made it costs the left for him is personified. the idea of staffing us the wrong diplomatic engagement that leads to
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a nuclear deal. and he's taken credit for having the nuclear deal by convincing trump to withdraw from him. so seeing that suddenly, quite unexpectedly, there was now in the window for renewed yvonne, us diplomacy because of his etzky honest election. victor, i think, was something that the time you all saw as expressed and realize that if he did something like this very, very intent, ron itself, on the day of his an alteration that it would make it all the more difficult for pedestrians to be able to get to that level of sustain diplomacy that is needed to actually resolve not only the nuclear issue, but some other points of the tensions between the vaughn and the united states. and in that, at least in the short term, he has succeeded. whether he will succeed in the medium in the long term of course, depends on what happens next by position and made it very clear in his election campaign. that's the economic issue. they can all make of all was of the wrong is
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a foreign policy issue. that sanctions that the us as imposing the ron are necessary for yvonne's economy to be able to function the strategy that the volumes have been pursuing for the last couple of years after they concluded that the united states is incapable and unwilling to offer sustained sanctions relief. is that they stop looking for sanctions relief and instead shift it towards the sanctions. neutralization meaning that the intensified trade with neighboring states in non us dollars. and as a result sought to have a trade that was protected from us sanctions. while that is important from their standpoint and position is not abandoning that approach, he wants to see it complimented, with some sanctions relief that allows yvonne to be a recipient of international investments which it is in dire need of. but that cannot happen unless there are the please, some sort of an agreement between the united states in the wrong and his entire presidency may crash over this issue. treat it. i don't know whether you have good
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inroads into what the average iranian citizen is feeling at this moment. are they comfortable with being members of the access of resistance and leading that? are they comfortable and do they want to see a strike back? it is real. do they have other objectives that might be closer to what possess key on one? it didn't set out at the beginning how. how do you feel like the average you're running is feeling in this moment? it, well, the issue is that there is no such thing as an average you wrong, and this is a society that is quite divided on along these lines. you definitely have a segment of society that leaves that what is happening between israel and palestine in general. perhaps their views or change a little bit, mind some of the genocide going on in general, they tend to be sympathetic to the palestinians quite overwhelmingly. but don't believe that that is yvonne's bites to engage in and are quite critical of their perception of how much money you bond is spending on some of these different groups
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. and i, and don't see this access of something to be proud of. but you have another segment of society as well that feel quite strongly about these issues, whether it's because of religious issues or either logical reasons, but also a very clear segment of society that perhaps transcends each. but they also understand that you're on a, as in a neighborhood famously, that is quite tough. they see in america that is very hostile. yes, the ron is hostile to the united states as well. but there's a very important data points here. e ron bid signs a jp away, yvonne agreed and lives up to the von nuclear deal. the united states was the party that we drew from it. and i think that's ok, huge hole in the idea that all of this enmity is just simply because of the radicalism of the united states, of the summit for public. that certainly is a factor. but you also have another factor which is that still a need towards yvonne tends to be politically attracted for politicians in the
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united states. obama proved himself to be a major exception of. and on top of that, you also saw things such as when ices emerge in which he runs investment in some of these groups prove fruitful in the feeding ices and after ice a short such a strong anti. she sent to mentioned it and killed such a large number of she has a lot of people inside of your own. also recognize that they would be coming against yvonne at some point. had it not been free of on developing these relations with these different travel groups and being able to stop by since before you and reaching yvonne's borders. there's a complicated picture in the sense that it is not as simplistic as the narrative in washington is in which these are just radical groups and it's completely unnecessary for you. i don't have any involvement of support for them. now we've got a democratic national convention coming up in chicago, shortly after the resumption of cease fire talks. and i'm interested in the timing . how important an equity is it 2 comma harris,
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vice president. i'd say it's running for president press the united states to demonstrate a, a progress in defusing, this war and conflict, and also beginning to focus on the plate of johnson's who have been dislodged and so many killed in this conflict. and i think it's absolutely crucial. now of course, she is not in charge of policy at this point. there's only one president at a time, but this is, of course, a very unusual situation by them did not resign voluntarily. it's quite clear that you have to be pressed immensely before he eventually yielded. so i am so sure that there's quite a lot of disarray intentions in the white house right now. exactly where the balance of the policy should be. from harris's standpoint, it is crucial to be able to show some degree of progress because if she is faced with the same situation as by the name terms of just continuing to buy them policy,
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but just sprinkling nicer words and tone and rhetoric around that that may work for a week or 2, but it's, there's clear signs already that it's not working long enough. people want to see a policy change and the on committed movement that have proven crucial in certain states. particularly michigan are not going to become a re committed just because of a tone and rhetorical change. they will require policy shifts. and while it's difficult for her as perhaps to make too strong promises on that brown, if she can point to progress that is happening right now. and perhaps even takes like credit for it that i think and go a very long way and injecting that type of confidence that isn't needed for a lot of those voters to come back to her. and i think it would be a huge mistake from her and to calculate that she has just generated so much energy in the campaign right time. she has that it is sufficient and she doesn't need some of these communities. she definitely does need them,
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particularly in certain states and beyond that. it's actually also good for herself because she does not want to enter the white house in case she went with this crisis still in an escalade authority stage. do you think they're in a box tree to with, with prime minister netanyahu of israel, in the sense that at if there was a shift away from him at some point to a different government, whether it's headed by benny gas or others, has their alliance and their steadfast support of israel's actions as far locked them in internet and yahoo has crafted side, created an inability to shift. yeah, absolutely. i think essentially by then deliberately willingly locked themselves to let them y'all, in an extremely unwise manner. given that's on the i was track record and he saw what nothing you all would did to biden's former boss obama. so to extend that degree of trust and that's a now just because you have seemed to see what is well after october 7th,
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is just strategically in comprehensible and now he's paying the price for it and america's paying the price for then of course the policy and he is paying the price for it and so perhaps the rest of the region will as well if that's and you all continues to get his way. harris needs to unlock herself from that time. yeah. but also unlock herself from this broader approach towards israel, which is that there is there's knee jerk dead friends and then same king and decision making afterwards. that is not gonna work because as well as right now, the country be partner of the united states. that is most likely to drag the united states into another war in the middle east. and what everyone thinks about the politics of israel in washington, and whether it's changed, marshall, whether it hasn't changed. what has changed on both the republican in the democratic side is that if you're a president that allows the united states to get dragged in to another war in the
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middle east, then you will lose your next selection. right? well, we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much. treat a policy executive vice president the quincy institute for responsible state crap. thank you so much for being with us of my budget. so what's the bottom line? decades ago iran might have accepted a deal with the u. s. that allows it to conduct nuclear energy research and development with severely constrain centrifuge construction and a lot of the land weapons inspections. but now things have changed. relations between the us are on a hot summer, but us, and that's your opinion. now i've had put iran's nuclear program in a box, and then donald trump ripped open that box. today, iran is more powerful and it is scaled up. it's due for the renovations. nobody can turn back the clock, all of the conflicts in the region. all of them are growing. there's no way the arc of instability that's been rising in the middle east is simply going to start to subside, especially after the assassination of from us leader is smile. connie, a, a former elected head of state on a, ronnie and soil. this all gets
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a lot worse before it gets better. and that's the bottom line. the of all that remains of what was once a classroom before is rose were now schools have become regular targets for the military for desperate august in use this cool in this is a neighborhood of cause a city serve as a temporary home is pretty forces issue new is actuation orders for 9 areas in newness warning they would for sleep operate against palestinian fighters there . click on what is happening to us. by the time we reach an area these readies want us to leave, is whether or not the whole world is watching. the act and find a solution to the argument is where the forces have fund areas in the north, south,
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and center of the carlos troops. the latest, the punctuation orders are causing panic. because with is where you repeatedly targeting, so called save stones. there's no guarantee they will be safe where they go next. once a journey through. every story, every step is a narrative. a separation of what we can achieve to reach the welcome to submit an extra re designer redesigns luxury leasing, trusting l. a future. today we create the
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safe them even from it as an international inside corruption, excellence award, denominator hero. now the latest news, as it breaks my in like thousands of palestinians, he tore down his home for fear of the alternative with detailed coverage. it's been months now on the farm these yes to hear from his radio for these for the we some is a life or death from the house of the story. how much wife is up to and this is a 3 d o twins was killed and then is really the strike when
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a house in con eunice the . ready are the more than 40000 palestinians in guys that have been killed by israel since october the 7th, with thousands more buried under the rubble. the i'm sort of any a good to have you with us. this is elsa 0 life from the also coming up those who have managed to survive in gaza, call on the world at the stump as well as destruction of the palestinian people. this is cease fire talks get under wayne guitar. the baffles the rushes course region, the ukrainian forces.

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