one of the most embattled coolness of the globe child of afghanistan, 20 years of war, follows me from boyhood to manhood. a life that has no no peace shaped by hardship, resilience and adventure. the unique zoom that captures the complex in a way which has never been seen before. witness on tuesday or it has a lot of launches hundreds of rockets and drives that as well. officer at talk said the group in southern lebanon. both sides say more will follow how significant all these cross border attacks and how closely do they bring the world to a wind, a regional conflict. this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's, i them southern lebanon once again under his right attack, while has belie hits back with the rocket, and try and strikes against targets across the border. states, the life has been assigned color violence is palestinians remain on the constant attack. and israel's relentless war. and gaza, while the nicest escalation shows the potential for the conflict to spread. the rom backs has the law as well, is supported, unarmed by western nations. so what do these licensed attacks mean and how great is the risk of a why the regional conflict? what stuff i get from happening so far. we'll put that to our guests in a moment. but 1st this report from the some dies on in what appears to be a significant escalation. israel launched what it called pre emptive strikes across southern lebanon early on sunday. it said it was targeting hezbollah positions in the region. the cross border violence has been happening for months,

around backs hezbollah, begin firing rockets into northern israel and protest against the war on gossip. it is said, it will continue to do so until there is a cease fire. but despite efforts to bring it into that for israel has kept up its attacks, threatening a wider regional conflict that has the people in lebanon, say they're living in constant fear. stranded passengers and very rude watched helplessly as flights were cancelled one by one after sunday's attacks. yeah, i know, but do you see what i just want to get out of here, but it means possible. i tried to go out by land. i tried with whatever airlines in any way i just want to get out of here, then i will figure it out. i was already on set and when i came here for vacation, i was thinking to myself that at any moment that could be a conflict breaking out. so being here, powerless, it's frustrating, especially since my studies are at stake. there's my situation that and on top of that i have paid for it for my residency for security and everything. so being stuck like that, hans tied my dinner. hezbollah had promised to respond to israel's assassination.

of one of his senior commanders floods record killed in bay root in july. in its statement it set it targeted a number of enemies sites and barracks, as well as platforms for israel's iron dome defense system. hundreds of fighters and civilians on the 11 east side of the border. having tilden is rarely strikes in recent months. and hundreds of thousands of israeli civilians have had to move away from their homes in northern areas. because because when we are determined to do everything possible to protect our country, to attend the residence of an old, safely to the home. and to continue to uphold a simple rule, whether hum to us, we hum him to click again for some tension has been high in the region since his real assassinated senior hamas and hezbollah leaders and recent weeks. a run has promised a response to the assassination of hamas leader is miles honey a and it's capital t. ron on july 31st the us,

which has promised iron clad support to israel is sending more military and naval personnel to the region. just last week. it approve another arms sale to israel, worth $20000000000.00. as the suffering of the palestinian people in garza continues, the entire region remains on edge, fearful of what could happen next. wilson dies ard elda 0 for inside story. the last spring, i guess, into the show we have joining us from bay road, had a job that, that you, on the list, and all sort of books on iraq and lebanon, including has balop bone with a vengeance. in athens, nicholas no political adviser and editorial of the voice of has belong the speeches of how some sort of law and, and to her on how much not on the professor at the university of tech strong will welcome to all of you. if i could start with jaila in by route, so how,

how do you read these recent exchanges between israel and has blog was a as wide ranging as deep as some may have expected? um, good afternoon everybody. today's offensive. my husband, well actually, um, showcase uh, something very important that's and one state doctor. uh and, and not the classic an army. in fact, there was a physical was able to impose the parents against one of the circle and strongest. scott, the strongest alleged militaries in the region is red. um, and did so by utilizing or using a cheap uh, in effect cheap um or okay. and uh, not the most sophisticated uh drawers to over what to penetrate through the skies, to reach up to a 110 kilometers and deep into his red. and um, about a $110.00 and,

and most of the kind of each. and to impose a new level of the parents, i guess is red um but we kind of always. ready the soviets riley's launch. what val calling a preemptive strike? and i'm coming to that. exactly. so according to nathan, yahoo is where i launched a preemptive strike. and actually i finished off if you want or at, or, or took care of between initially it said a 1000, but it was 6000 and increased up to 8. thousands of has one law broker or miss lloyd. however, there were, there were no 2nd re, um, uh, what do you call that they would do in a 2nd the explosions. uh there were no uh, minutes, fee uh, losses as well as known to announce in need of the any members of the office that

should not have been the case as well. i would not have been able to launch 200 of them 20 between drones. rocket central is right at each of the drones. if you want, usually takes about a 2 to 3 hours preparation, but also about uh, semen uh, teeth, teeth that goes to mentor advisors to prepare. so you, if uh, so you would be talking to collect quite a lot of numbers now, looking at them, yahoo instead actually and what happened on the grounds. uh, no secondary exposures, normally chico costs bouts on what he actually claims. the baby really finished off or mostly finished uh, between one all right, and 6000 or 8000. all right. that has been some records. those read reports that have been some reports claiming there was some casualties amongst has belong, finances, things, although not a 100 percent clear. at this point, nick,

looking at the situation so far, how do you read the intentions of both policies is around has belong, given the type of attacks with both sides, saying they've been focusing on minute 3 targets. the scale of attacks? what do you read in this, that these strikes, these exchanges all still the within the premises of what we can call, i guess, maybe calibrated casserly calibrated strikes. i think that is the case. it's really hard to talk about intentionality with any of these actors. that's the 1st thing, 2nd of all, i think we're going to learn a lot more about the intentionality of has above the one site and the for all of the head of the party speaks shortly in the coming hours. or when this is broadcasting boulevard is spoken, so that's something else. but next i think in general. busy so what we have here in a normal situation is the off frames to the escalation could be very available to

all parties has by low could claim that they launched significant attacks. there's a written is rarely military censorship. it's very hard to determine whether and to what extent that might be true on the is really side. they can claim a mythical pre emptive attack, which we've seen actually debunk several times, most notably in the august 2006 war when these rallies claimed a mythical. 34 minute error operation that destroyed all of has butler's a significant rocketry, which turned out very much to not be the case. however, i think, you know, in general, where we're at is not a normal situation. so the normal pathways to the escalation after this kind of an exchange aren't available. we're 11 months into this war, which is properly and should properly be called a war. it involves not only how does on palestine and israel, and also 11 on involved so much wider swath of the region. and i think the,

you know, the, the, the calibration has been obviously once again careful from the israelis relatively careful. and again, this would all be between quotes because civilians are getting killed. civilian areas are being hurt in various instances by various actors. um, but in general, we're at a point where it's still not an open war. we haven't we this this morning until right now, but i would also caution viewers and all of us that this is a situation that has been ongoing for 11 months. today's events may not be finished . and in any case, they are not likely to be finished because we are still very far away. it seems from a durable ceasefire over the war, specifically in the casa. and because that's the case, i still expect in the coming period, things will get more dangerous and we'll have more escalation. so maybe more to come. how much not on the in to ron, how significant is it that has the laws retaliation for the killing of one of it

seen the a come on. those was known called nice. it all synchronized with and the rain in retaliation for the kidding of a smile. any a so far and what we've seen today. oh, well, 1st of all i should all stress the point that uh, as long as had no casualties. so far they've declared not $119.00 is not a large country here. first of all, again, i just don't know if they are known as your previous guess. pointed out to declare their martyrs a 2nd of all in the place like living on you can hide monitor, so i don't think i mentioned you out. lose claims are accurate because based on those claims you should have a be a large number of people. i sold you to somebody else but not injured. the car are killed by the machine, but i think so there must definitely have been coordination between the different

members of the axis of resistance. meaning yeah, man, levon on syria to rock and the ron and of course the resistance inside palestine. but what, what i mean, the thing we didn't see around launch that retaliatory strike that its officials have been talking about in the same time, at the same time so far with the has the last strike that we've seen so far is how significant is that can we read anything into that. i would imagine that the iranians want be, is rainy regime as well as design is in general to continue guessing. they've caused a lot of damage to the economy over the past few weeks because they've kept them guessing. this riley is had to move around a lot of their infrastructure to keep them safe. their businesses have been disrupted,

and the military and intelligence agencies have had to have extra precautions. in case there was a, there in case there was a mis, i'll strike. so it is causing a lot of economic damage to the machine and i think there's own need for and so not our passport acore run to carry out strikes simultaneously. in fact, i think that the impact this way is more significant, but we also have to as your previous guess, pointed out wait and see what to say. and pass on that sort of law has to say in the coming hours. nick, looking at uh, that's what, what's happening right now. what is the possibility do seeing of a wind the region will breaking out as well? you know, i'm, i'm one that has said and argued for really quite some time since really november

that the likelihood of a much more expanded conflict or really an open war had been growing. and i, i still fail to see, given the total us support for israel, the extraordinary moral hazard that that has been created in the sense of moving one 3rd of the u. s. navy to the region, to essentially, or to verbally provide added fire power to the israelis and all of these different factors. and also the tremendous capabilities that has bella has kind of partially unveiled. i don't see how that is. what these riley's can let this situation stand and given the z just tremendous support from the united states, just shipped over several $1000000000.00 of weapons, billions of dollars and economic assistance as needed, etc. all right,

thank you. sounds like you're saying is that, do you expect the or you, you read at least elements of the israeli government would like to escalate this to oh, i definitely have rejected since the beginning this idea that nobody quote unquote wants for. i think that there are significant elements of these really leadership that very much want to see a climax take what they think is a climb act, a consultation, especially with test bella, and especially with, you know, and many of them have argued publicly that this is a victory doctrine, and this is the only way to pursue israel's interest and the united states and the binding ministration of more or less gone all in on supporting whoever wants to press that agenda for all right. how about how do you read? has the laws intentions going forward? i mean, they've said this is the 1st phase. does anything that has happened in this? try give us any indication of what the next stage is. might look like how,

why they might be, why the, they'll be joined by all the regional players in the strikes on israel and when it might be. and i think today's statement in which they said this was the 1st phase. i think a lot of us read into this that there would be a 2nd, a 2nd phase, and whether or not to us from has well, what i thought was one of one of the other actions via the wrong i am on the wrong order of home have promised her own reprise and for the, for, for, is with the aggression is against them. however, there's one thing, there's one thing to know um, uh, are really using this is it's might be the case. the hezbollah is actually saying this was the 1st phase. in other words, should israel decide to respond to what happened today by enlightening this for them that's wouldn't bring on a 2nd phase, which would be bigger and more serious. um, it sounds like you're saving jobs that this might be, this might be over for now in terms of the or the heavy ally i've been, i believe,

i believe for the time being. i, i truly believe for the time being, this is the 1st stage and this is a song with israel having said big enough once to expand love expanding, then things go back to what we have before been known. the normal and back in full was fighting between the 2. 5. i'm the support for guys and let's not forget garza, but also one of the things you was saying is you were surprised about today's a thought. maybe know for the nation with your, i mean, we need to remember when, when all of the access decided and, and, and pledge that they would do reprice it against as read for the suggestion. none of them be able to schedule, but none of them said that this was going to be a coordinated attack. either they all agree, but each one had the right to respond. now whether they responded together or whether they responded independently as we sold today, have follow up, took the initiative, responded independently on its own. despite the spice,

the middle of american and american assets troops and, and bustos and the region, it was not intimidated. it's been for the said, it's pledge to, to send a reprise in is read, seems to have got the message or at least the americans who appear not to one vista drug into a region a rule despite the build up and the region bear here to be prepared, should it escalate further? but i think all parties concerned including your on the, not one this to expand into a region or more. and i such rise would issue the statement saying, we do not want to expand this at or beyond. so things won't go back because i think over the last month with everything happening, we've been concentrating on the price of the acts as is right and what's going to happen and i, this has been diverted away from gaza. so now it goes back to concentrating on guys, all right, and the war of support won't be on that dynamic. right. and just for the rightful

my, my question to my husband in to around was, how significant is it rabo van? i am surprised, but thank you. you made a really good point in your analysis that how i want to bring the habit and because it seems listening to, to nix analysis and how does the analysis that the panel feel that has belong not too eager to expand this right now. what about iran, how do you read the appetite, particularly of the new government? is it more interested in trying to address domestic issues and challenges the economy lifting sanctions? rob advancing rounds results is go towards getting bumped down in a wall, potentially not in with this robot. with the us no one in the region one say regional war except for as your uh, guest uh, one of your guests riley pointed out the matching out origin. but the issue is that

uh, march or hanging. it was assassinated in town and he was attacked and murdered in test run along with his companion. and it was, he was in toronto at the invitation of president position young. and he was a guest. that is a non gratian and he was a gas at the, at an official government guest house. and so we know quite well that this raimie regime has already carried out a tax on the wrong. we saw them strike them to see in damascus in western countries literally supported the regime and doing that. so we won't have to carry out an attack to create the tenants and that the time slots at 3 months roughly. so if you're around does not strike the regime, it will only encourage netanyahu and the people around him from how many do you think of that choice? it is inevitable. a direct strike from iran is still on the table. it's inevitable

. it's just a matter of time. absolutely, i have no doubt that there will be a significant strike that will be painful. it will be more significant than the iranian strike in april. and the we have to keep in mind that hasn't been delayed the next. why haven't we seen it so far as well? there are a number of reasons why the ryans have a debate. the strike one is that they run into carrying on psychological warfare. as i said earlier, there is having a very significant impact on life in, in israel. and so why not add to the misery of the regime by keeping them guessing for a while back now that has the law has attacked and b as randy regimes response has been insignificant,

i think there are people in palestine will be even more concerned. they'll know that iran will strike carter than hezbollah. they will have to wait for any ryan strike is worth. i think there is significant in that debate. i think there are also other reasons. i think during the negotiations, the writings probably, and i'm guessing this is sheer speculation on my part that the writings were thinking that during the negotiations into ha, maybe it would not be a good idea because then the americans and there's really wishing him would try to blame iran or husband or the resistance for the collapse of the talk. so you run, waited until it was exposed to everyone that the americans and this right, the machine were not sincere. i'm glad you mentioned that. that's segue is nice, is the question that i was going to put to make and i could say you wanted to, to guessing the next. so is there a link in the dynamic of all of these exchange of strikes and the talks going on?

the yeah, certainly, i mean the, the main event is whether a durable ceasefire and it has a can be achieved. and i think that the dr. monday is correct. i think in general, almost all of the actors around the world would like to see a durable ceasefire, and it's really the netanyahu like government that has uh, that is the outlier on this. however, i think that we should also say that site does it all himself, over the years of a decade and a half. a said that he very much craves this great war that could clarify matters with, with israel. but that he and the is being ronnie and leadership both to a said that they prefer strategically a different, more patient past way, rather than a sudden upsurge in an open war. so that's their stated interest. however, that, that being said, and that, that directly ties into why a durable ceasefire scene is so important, my husband, the iran, and how much as well. because then that will re calibrate what is an intensifying

conflict where the resistance access of hezbollah, iran from us and others are in a difficult position, because they can actually right now inflict real heavy material damage militarily on israel without going to an open war. but that in doing that, it belongs, stay a preference for a longer term patient calibrated strategy, where there are advantages as a symmetric actor, as or as less powerful state actors can be enjoyed. so there and it's very difficult catch 22 here. and i think to dr. job, but as a point, i would say we're not, i mean going back to normal is not normal. i mean, we have been at the cost of, you know, at the open war for many months, especially the last few weeks. so going backwards doesn't seem like a very good place for anyone, but then i would also just question both of our other guests on where that position

is, is in the end, if we go back to normal and things you know, kind of quiet down to the normal warfare of the last few months, you still have more than 40000 palestinians that are dead and more dying every day . you have her moss, with their military cape capabilities, very likely being degraded on a daily basis. you have no hope for a durable ceasefire. you have a 3rd of the u. s. navy there, but you're seeing the israelis and then you know, for basically whatever they want to do and you're not actually for the resistance acs, it's not actually inflicting material damage on the okay. i can see how a shaking a head and i see i disagree with the man i am because there's a bit of wishful thinking on that on that part. and there's a bit of sounding like, you know, what's going on and you guys are, is to be blamed or legs are at the doorstep, all of the axes and hezbollah, who are actually the only countries or, or groups in the region that are doing anything. so any be or how much look at the, the warning guys, well, there's

a very simple way to end this war and gossip and bath dress, which is where the americans america should literally cease to support finance provides wipers to is one i think you're on the entire excess of said, if that's for and guys that ends now within seconds. everything is over. we stop based off, meaning we, i'm talking under like they would be saying that's me. and the whole with and the fact that it's hasn't ended, there's nothing to do with whether it's below once a log drawer or muscle, as you said, is craving and large more. i think there's, it was for thinking maybe on your own, you'll be off large. what was best not to be met? let's not forget, we're talking about the best of people in the videos, like we've seen and guys that we can have a level. so whether it's planning these wars is also taking into consideration, right? the numbers of people that could be kids and this is no life matter. i'm trying to avoid that. it's very easy to send bombs or miss size to hit random but of the

things and killing civilians on the other side. if we look at the last 10 months, we would know that it has below that has maintained that ethically against military targets. whereas is a, has actually a top civilians everywhere in gaza as we've seen, and blah, blah to enter the war and gaza. the, the, the, the final decision on that, or, or the power, the top or the country that has a power to right. yep. that's for is the united states together more or less than a country. this whole thing is also find the common sense on cause it does all right, i'm afraid we are out of time. i know there's a lot more that we can go on discussing, but we'll be back for another show. no doubt. we'll have some of, i guess back again. let's for now think the most of the contributions how to java. nicholas know, i'm how much modern day and thank you for watching and can see the show again, any time by visiting our website. i'll do there a don't com and for further discussion head over to a facebook page,

that's facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story. you can also join the conversation on x, our handle barry's page i inside story from me, sammy say that i'm the entire team now to find the listings in the gaza strip as easily as long last continues. there's a deliberate mission of posting and humanity in western media, and it needs to be question, sustains coverage that actively humanize as, as readings and actively humanizes palestinians. this is not the time for doing this kind of way. tracking those stories examining the journalism and the effect that news coverage can have on democracies everywhere. here at the listing, the best stripped from it switches and left with

a toxic legacy. when you teach, they usually forget the from leap point. when you think that the people in power meet, the inhabitants still fighting for justice. jesse, wait and took, evaluate and think. and for the money it went home. i didn't think they even consider it as like in the black people's people, the sacrifice then on tuesday or the colleges here with the

the the hello am i am the was the welcome to the muse. our life from dell are coming up in the next 60 minutes israel, or does the immediate evacuation of areas and they're all by letting me unlock so hospital for and don't to say they've received calls, telling them to leave israel and has paula exchange fire across the southern lebanon border as well as saying it was in retaliation for the killing of one of its coming.