to so why would they take up arms against the country and stand back in standby on youtube, hot series excludes the role of military venture and us for right all good. we're going i could see against the coming soon on al jazeera how well the us economy shape. it's a presidential election, but it's coming to harris and donald trump. slave strong policies. alexi didn't know then, but what is the country's reading from a huge deficit and high consumer prices? what can either of them offer this is inside stores, the hello that on james bay's welcome to

a special us selection edition of inside story. with 2 months to go before the vote, candidates the outlining that economic vision, democratic presidential candidates, couple of harris. so she plans to cut some taxes and launch a massive house building program. well, form a president. donald trump says he'll slash what he says is unnecessary. federal spending and put large terrace on phone imports, the economy and inflation a top priority so that it has, as many a struggling to make ends meet. so how will the state of the economy play into the election in november? and what role will swing states play and the outcome will explore all of this without pile of guests who joined us in a moment. but 1st this report from katya lucas holiday on outlining his economic decision for the us. former president donald trump says so cut federal spending and the corporate tax rate for companies that manufacturer within the country. and he also says, tech billionaire, you,

on mosque has agreed to serve in his administration 50. when's in november i will create a government efficiency commission task who is conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government and making recommendations for drastically forms need to do it and deal on because he's not very busy has agreed to have that task force democratic presidential nominee pamela harris has highlighting different economic policies, including a $25000.00 credit for 1st time home buyers and tax cuts. we will pass a middle class tax cuts that will benefit more than $100000000.00 americans. well, unemployment in the us as low inflation for means high and frustration among the public will likely show up in the pools. there needs to be a kind of careful balancing between touting accomplishments and

recognizing the pocket book challenges that many vote are still feel. it's not just the state of the economy, it's voters perceptions that matter. most opinion polls give harris a slight advantage, but trump is close behind. and recent survey suggests voters trust to the republican party more to manage the economy. right now, whether you're looking at the national pulling numbers, you're looking at the swing state pulling numbers, you have to say that the momentum is with complet harris. this race is today, still a toss up, but i'd rather become a harris. then donald trump, given the directional arrow of the pulse, a televised presidential debate next week could be a turning point, with both parties highlighting the others weaknesses, and their individual approach to the economy, to catch you a little bit of williams elda 0 for insight story.

well let's discuss all of this with today's panel of political and economic experts . join us on inside story in washington, dc. every time a political analyst and capable of the g o p. civil war, inside the bible for the soul of the republican party. robert scott, independent economist, he's joining us from rockville, maryland, and demetrius of a lot sauce is chief economist and found the partner at aurora might cost strategies is joining us from new york. so we're talking about the election campaign today. um the economy. it's the economy, stupid. that's the famous expression from james carville, who was the advisor to bill clinton back in the 1992 election. robert, does that still apply? it's the economy, stupid. and in terms of the selection, are we talking about all the comic issues or is it by specifically inflation prices and the cost of living? i think it said oh economic variables. certainly,

inflation is high in the minds of many butters. but uh, i think the overall status of the economy is critical. and whether or not the federal reserve succeeds in achieving a saw planning for the economy. today we had a good jobs report that's uh, that's helpful. but we've had rising unemployment now for 6 or 8 months, and that's a, that's a bad indicator. so we don't know how the economy service providers, particularly 2 months out from now when they actually go to the polls. eric, there are so many issues in the us election campaign. um you would probably agree economy stands that actual near the top, but rang kit for, for me. what are the other key issues? why would you say that they are in, in, in both his minds, health care, abortion crime, climate, gun control of the character of the presidential candidate and full audience, many of whom are outside the us, foreign policy where the, where the,

those things rang as well. i think they all right, pretty high, particularly the issues of health care and women's reproductive rights. but of course, those issues also feed into this, this issue of the economy and rising inflation, which has been imagine problems for the binding parents administration as well as folders. and i think we're going to continue to see this be a top issue throughout this campaign over the next 60 days. and while certainly many americans will be making their choice based on the economy. i clearly what they are looking for, and what they are yearning for is which of these candidates is going to present the best economic vision, not only for the country, but more importantly for the pocketbooks book of many americans to be addressed in terms of inflation. in june 2022 prices were rising by knowing point one percent a month. now, inflation has come down to about 2800000,

i think is the light is bigger, but that's not reflect to does it in old really people's perception of the situation kind of going to me, i mean, the federal reserve has clearly done an excellent job of bringing down inflation without causing too much trouble in the labor market. but you know, people have longer memory has been done just the last 12 months of price data. and they look at the levels of prices and perhaps more importantly, due at the annual increase and when they compare where they are today, in terms of the prices they're paying for groceries compared to where they, where at the last election. that impression of buying places has not gone away despite, as i mentioned, the progress that the federal reserve has made and bringing price pressures down a robot. i mean, that's the problem in terms of, of the public when they talked about inflation, they're really talking about prices. inflation means the amount, the prices are going up. and of course,

no economy is wants prices to go down because deflation is a really bad thing. but people are think affected by the cumulative effect of this, and they remember. but when present biden came into office, it was just 3 and a half years ago. and the things they buy in the supermarkets can then compared with now they're about 20 percent more in terms of what the paying for them. exactly. right. and yeah, i think the 2 most important measures of prices are grocery prices and housing prices. what's your portion by interest rates? so these are the factors i think are high in the minds of a most folders and uh, there's nothing left to to come out of. harris could do was convincing that there is a go. this price is going to come down, that would be um, a and reasonable and harmful expectation. so we have to deal with the reality of the prices are substantially higher now my work of 4 years ago, a demetrius. if we look at the steward ship of the economy by the,

by the administration and by the federal reserve and it's control of interest rates, how would you judge that? because if you look, say 18 months. but so, or 2 years ago, people were talking about the real likelihood of a recession. and actually this being what they call them a school, a soft landing. it seems. and some might say, this is actually the best case scenario, the biden. and harris could have how hopeful i would probably agree with that. but i would probably break up the tenure of the by the administration into 2. and let's use the, you know, 2022 when the fed started up hiking rates, as our cutoff there. you know, in the 1st year of the administration and present bible presided over increasing inflation. probably excessive fiscal spending that fuel that inflation to some degree in the midst of a cover recovery. and i think the record for both the fiscal policy makers,

and obviously this includes congress and for monetary policy makers at the federal reserve was not very good and lead to bass inflationary officers. however, the 2 years that followed by would definitely give the federal reserve very high marks for. ready managing to engineer installation coming back down without causing unemployment to spike. and i would also give the administration by march for not interfering too much with the job of the federal reserve, which has and mandate for maxim employment and price stability. i think the probably done very well in that regard. one thing that is important to look out for us we have entered this selection, of course, is a federal deficit, which, broadly speaking, is out of control. and none of the candidate has a clear plan to bring it back under control. or do you think behind the scenes there may be some frustration among the harris comp time within the,

by the ministration, but they haven't got the credit for avoiding the recession. many it predicted to, oh absolutely, in fact, but i think a lot of that has to do more with the biting harris administration simply not counting their economic records. this is an administration that has produced more jobs than any other administration over the last 3 decades. in addition to that, we know that the u. s. economy has certainly outpaced that, any other economy in the world. and so clearly what we're seeing is under the bi inherited ministration, there had been a number of jobs that has, that have returned to the united states, particularly with more court corporations and companies. now building semiconductors in the united states, as well as a very real effort to try to keep prices low, which is why we are saying the, the harris campaign attempting to go after companies we have price gouging. because while we certainly look at this issue of inflation, we know that corporations that certainly try to benefit from that as well. in fact,

one major grocery train has even grocery chain is even admitted to actually hiking prices. as a result of the rise and inflation. as we had towards the election, which is now less than 2 months away, the, it seems some important bits of information and decisions coming to head. one of the bits of information is the jobs report which has come out recently. but that shows the data that a 142000 jobs were added in august. that's nearly $30000.00 more than july. unemployment slip slightly standing at 4.2 percent according to the labor to pump the robot. all those fit goes good or bad, would you say? well, i think they're very good. i mean, continuing to add jobs. but despite the pressure that's being composed has been imposed but reserved for the past 5 years, or sir, was that for you in the past year or 2? i think it's a,

it's very good news. but i think the other thing to keep in mind in this, in this discussion, i don't think the candidates had made this point at. i know is that inflation is not just a us problem. it's global. it was a cause that is from merely by supply chain problems that are coming in during the corporate crisis and afterwards, and by the war and uh, in the crate which has resulted in tighten supplies of food, grains and, and the energy supplies. those are precisely the things that are going up too fast . the other factor is, of course, corporate profit tearing is mentioned. corporate profits are up sharply over the past 3 or 4 years. so companies have take advantage of the coverage of price pressures to increase the returns. so that job is report is one important milestone. the other, i believe, comes up on the 17th. and 18th of this month,

when the federal reserve will be meeting to decide on interest rights given that jobs report. what do you think that jerome powell and these colleagues are going to do? demetrius, i think, today is report solidifies the case for a rate cut which has been well telegraphed by both j pyle and other members of the f o. m. c, which sets interest rates here in the united states. there's a little bit of debate in the markets of whether that's going to be $25.00 basis points or 50 basis points reduction and interest rates. today, jobs report, i think, was strong enough to justify the fed starting slow starting with point 25 percent. and then seeing how it goes with the rest of the year. but i think the case for lowering interest rates had been well made by market participants by the data and by members of the fed open market committee. so i would expect the car to come in 2

weeks time. eric has a couple of harris tries to sell her economic policies. we know that the republicans so far in this campaign, it had the advantage in the poles on economy. how called oh well, how easy is it for hers to separate herself from biden's economic rec, what she's trying to portray herself as the change come to this as well while she's making while she's trying to make that argument, that she has to change canada clearly what we're seeing is a candidate who is also continuing to double down on the policies from the biden harris administration where a focus on the working middle class. and of course, her latest proposal on more affordable housing built throughout the country. i think that would certainly be a mass of bona that's i think, been one of the major sticking points, particularly for young people are rising and moving into the middle class is these

lack of affordable housing across the country. and that's actually a, a, a move that a harris administration, if elected could actually implement. i think that would go a very long way and solidifying not only a growing and robust economy, but certainly i think a successful presidency of for the harris wattsey. well, let's look at some of the policies and housing is one of them. demetrius harris, as we, as we heard eric say, is touching to build 3000000 new homes during her 1st term. but she's also going to get 1st on by is a $25000.00 towards a down payment. now somebody called them as of criticized that say that that's just going to mean those going to increase demand. and so there's going to raise that prices and everything demand time policies, carrier risk of inflation with them. and when you, you know, give everyone a subsidy regardless of the, of the amount you can expect. some of that to flow through to um,

house builders and sellers. and i don't think that's and i think that's a fair critique. what seen demand driven policies and in other parts of the world in the u. k. in canada and usually runs. and in general, i would say that have succeeded more in raising house prices and they have succeeded in raising rates of house building. and that's something i would look at very carefully either as the kind of her, as he can on a team or, you know, whatever congressional approval is required for that. and the international evidence is not particularly robust for these kinds of subsidies to demetrius. one of the things that from on the other hand wants to do, he says that will improve the economy, is to have a government efficiency commission, where he says, i quote to you that he wants an oil due to the entire federal government and wants them to make recommendations for drastic reforms. now the interesting thing about

this is who is put in charge of it because he's put a loan mosque, the boss of tests, not the the boss of x that used to be twitter. of course, i would imagine that there are some of us civil 7 to a quaking it up. it's about this given the most laid off 6000 people. 80 percent of twitter is workforce when he bought the company. well, i'm not a civil servant. i wouldn't want to to speak for several seconds working for that country. it's, you know, it's a standard, i would say, republican, a proposal that the, you know, the, the federal government is bloated, has too many people doing too many things and it needs to be sent out and, and do few other things as a mattress on i missed i'm somewhat less concerned about the, the size of the administration, and i don't think that to where the deficit problems this company has to begin and end. so i wouldn't hold my breath to see the macro economic impact of that. if i

had to guess, i would imagine being back would be fairly limited on the macroeconomy. robot staying with trumps plans. obviously part of the strategy was everything with trump is america 1st and the economic terms that means putting terrace on products imported from a bu abroad. he's floating the idea of a 10 percent universal telephone inputs from a board board and hitting those goods coming from china with a 60 percent tariff. what do you make of that? is that going to work or is that just going to few further inflation? i think is purely inflationary evidence to show that the tariffs are not effective at reducing, enforce or stimulating demand for domestic goods. the court problem with the american goods is that we're not price competitive and that's in part driven by the fact that the dollar is so hot, it's so strong in the global economy. so i think that's a problem and i think you have to think about that. the dollar and the competitive

is frankly, from the frame of one of the larger macro, not rank, where you cannot make plans of these 2 campaigns. trump is proposed retaining his corporate tax cut at a cost of perhaps $5.00 trillion dollars over the next decade. on top of that, the tariffs that you mentioned are going to cost consumers anywhere from the 2000 to $4000.00 per family. so you know, these are, these are huge costs to impose a burglar, so causing the economy. i expect that those are those past codes alone are going to, to uh, boost to government deficit and raise the cost of borrowing. on the other hand, i think the buying the ministration is going to retain those taxes and invest part of the receipts and things like child care tax credits. and the tax credits for children are particularly low income families. so the priority

is a very different and i think that those kind of macro priorities will lead to lower interest rates. so as far a deficit for the the harris walter administration. then for trump, who was going to expand the deficit like cutting factors. so i think it's important to step back and look at that broader lens. do we also eric? so i'll have to step back and look at these things which is supposed to be economic policies and look at the more politically that the yes, the not necessarily all about the credible economic plan. there are about things that are attaching to voters, for example, how result you know, we've just heard about trump on terrace power snows. inflation is a weak spot for her. and she suggested a proposal to about rent a brand new price gouging on, on, on, on groceries. yeah, that's right, and we know that that's an issue that she is as making her case. so to the voters, but look at going back to donald trump and these terrors. we've actually seen this play out during his administration where he plays tears on goods coming from china,

as well as from turkey. and i think we, we seen how that played out didn't really bode well for the american consumer then . and they certainly will not at this time, but of course, donald trump seems to believe that this is actually a boon for the united states. and it punishes these foreign countries, but he doesn't seem to make the case in terms of the ministry is the buying power of us consumers. and so i think that's something that we have to also continue to see play out. it's also important to note, we've also heard from goldman sachs that weighed in on both of these 2 candidates and what they believe the mirror policies will do for the economy. we've heard from goldman sachs that says that they believe that a terrorist was campaign will actually be a boon for the economy. whereas they believe that donald trump, with his parents, would actually slow economic growth for the united states. demetrius um and it's

all very well all of these policies that are all proposed by these candidates, but there's another factor in us politics, which is, who controls congress harris may not be able to put any of these policies in place if she loses the senate and the democrats look pretty, we cannot race a pointer. it's actually, um, something that uh, people tend to underestimate the us is of course, selecting a president in november, but it's also electing a 3rd of the senate and the attorney. and it has the representatives and the power of the 1st decisions over how much the tax and how to spend my was congress, they don't mind with the president. so it will be just as important, if not more important than who ends up in the why has to look at what is the congressional composition going to look like. the democrats have a very tough man ahead of them and they stand to lose one seat in west virginia, which means if they win, the presidency,

control of the senate will come down to the wins in montana and then come in there . trump tester from the democratic party is trailing in the balls now is not trailing by much so i wouldn't dismiss out of hand. the idea of the democrats could emerge from this election with controllable 3 houses that would enable kind of a harris to push forward her economic agenda. but what is more likely is that we will end up with divided government regardless of who ends up in the white house. and what that means is there's going to have to be compromise. there's going to have to be some bi partisan agreement over how to deal with a deficit. how to deal with the tax cuts that are expiring, how to deal with a debt limit. and that will not just require input from the president, but also from whoever controls the chambers congress. for now, i saw series of discussion with a maxim. it's the economy, stupid. another one in the us campaign, politics. normally as presidential debates don't move the needle,

but of course we saw what happened at the end of june. eric, how much, how, how important is the debate coming up in just a few days time, and how important will the economy be in that debate? i don't think this debate is going to matter at all in terms of the subject matter or the economy. i think this is going to be a fight overstayed craft and optics. many people are going to be watching to see if cala harris can actually withstand the attacks that will certainly come her way from donald trump. if she can do that, i think we will then begin to see the polls begin. we will begin to see some separation in the polls, but make no mistake. this is a debate that is all about complet harris, just as much as in june. that debate was all about joe biden. many people are watching to see if in fact age was going to be an issue, and it certainly was during that debate, any people are going to be watching to see if comma harris can actually look and

act in and appear to be like a commander in chief on that stage, and if she can pass that test, then i think both as well reward her with that role. but we've been talking all about financing each economics in this discussion. but of course, this economics and guessing collected as well isn't there. and the, these figures are interesting, the figures for august, the vice president harris raised $361000000.00. that's nearly 3 times what president trump for president trump raised in that month? i think that's correct. and the uh, the, the, i think tamala harris is a selection and the evaluation by, as a credit party creates a tremendous amount of the, if there was the, as a amongst of older and far as many of them have been sitting on the sidelines and including many of the wealthy individuals who have been withholding contributions from the bite and campaign. so i think it's a combination of a breaking up

a damn of those contributions, cummings engine, democrats, as well as in increasing susie as and for a couple of harris science to all 3 of you all guess. today, eric camera, but scott and demetrius phillip sauce, we, we putting the spotlights on the campaign regularly on this program between now and election day, november the 5th. remember, you can also find plenty of us political analysis on out to 0 dot com. we want you'll use to go to a facebook page that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story, or find this on x, where we are at a inside story. i'll be back here in this chat very soon until then for me and we'll take the, the september announces 0. us vice president,

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