those are those with strong bizarre indonesia is where such resolve about the right place for your business to get off the ground, the price otherwise with this strategic downstream industry on your better tomorrow you know, green light. so you crane to use long range, west and made missiles and russian territory vladimir putin so such a move would meet without rule with nato members. but how serious is wanting? and what difference could these weapons make on the battlefield? this is inside store the

how low that wrong james pays the war. and ukraine is a critical juncture, western allies, a considering a shift and the support allowing you crying to use long range missiles against targets deep inside russian territory. ukraine has been pleading for the go ahead for months, but there's no indication when or if the us president joe biden will grant the request. the criminal in his will in such approval would mean may 2 members were directly involved in the conflict will. what's the nation's cross president vladimir putin's red line? and if they do, how will russia respond? we'll discuss these questions a many more with, i'll guess in a moment. but 1st, this report from axles on the, which in washington, a, somebody that could reshape the battlefield in ukraine. us presidential by then, and british prime minister, cure star me or are waiting up a critical decision. should ukraine be allowed to use western me besides the hit targets deep inside russia? the weapons in question include the british french manufacturers storm shadow. they

have a range of 250 kilometers and fly close to the speed of sound. at the american made army technical missile systems known as outcomes, and they have a range of 300 kilometers and carry 225 kilograms of explosives. both could reach far beyond the front lines and straight crushing military sites. president, below the muse, alaska has long call for these weapons st. there, crucial to ukraine's defenses. until recently, western nations have been reluctant to give to go ahead. viewing an escalation of the complex. but there reconsidering in light of reports that iran is supplying russia with ballistic missiles. the vice president let the me to put in says the use of western made laws which weapons the door would be crossing a red line. it will mean nothing less than the direct participation of nato, the us and europe in countries in the war in ukraine. the direct participation significantly

changes the very ss, the very nature of the conflict. and then this will mean natal, i'm the us and european countries all fighting russia. it's not the 1st time he's issued such warnings since the war began. in february 2022. the west has steadily increased the military a to ukraine, testing most cost result. this war of attrition has reached a very critical stage in which now there are ukraine and frontlines beginning to collapse. so the dilemma for nato is, does it negotiate or escalates to keep the war going? and, and the, it seems as if some are pushing for negotiations while others are pushing for escalation. so this is why the united states, this would be cautious because it's, it's, it's, it should be because if de escalate this one too much, they might not be able to negotiate and more, and also it's the most of unintended consequences. so at some point the rush i will,

will retaliate. a response by russia could be severe, puts it has threatened to upgrade air defenses, destroy incoming missiles and even arm of western adversaries abroad, such as iran and the north korea. there's also talk of revising approaches nuclear policy. despite all this, president biden seems i'm willing to cross buttons latest red line for at least for now excellence. i'm gonna reach out to 0 for insights story the as well. let's discuss all of this further with today's panel of guests who are joining us from mosca. we joined by people soaking. holla, he's an independent russian defense analyst for munich. marina me wrong is post doctoral research at the will studies department,

kings college in london. i'm from washington dc lawrence called for my assistant secretary of defense. thank you for joining us today on inside story moreno. let me start with you before we get into what is been going on in the diplomacy this week, taking place in ukraine in washington. and before we find out what was said, it must go, let's just go back to basics. was easy. but ukraine actually wants the model. they have these long range missiles as i understand it, they need permission to use them in a different way. correct. so what you praying is essentially asking for is the storm shadow in scope missiles that it already has at the disposal to be used on russian territory destruct deep into russia. and of course, it also has american ad accounts, which have a range of 300 kilometers so they can reach even falls or a. so those would be in question as well. and ukraine,

arguments it as self defense, saying that it could hit military targets and degrade rushes capability to wage war against ukraine. and just to follow up on that marina, just to be absolutely clear. i don't want to go into all the details of the military capabilities of these missiles, but the storm shadow and the scalp. the storm shadow is a u. k. miss sile, the scope of rotten saying is, is almost identical with a french variant of the same a miss all. i'm the other one, which is the army tactical missile system, which is known by this acronym attack comes that so us miss saw what is the range of the of, of these so that is correct. so it's a range for era launched call us form shuttle missiles is 250 kilometers. and for the american ad accounts is 300 kilometers. lawrence, i'm your take on ukraine. one thing these miss solves as i understand it and use

nuclear weapons against the ukraine, marina. you all the in munich, but you look for the was studies department of kings college in london. so you understand the u. k. position i think is what focusing for a little bit before we find out what has happened in the last few days on the u. k . position the u. k. seems to be pretty teen to let you crate and use it. storm shadow missiles in a new way. is that your, your understanding and is this a rare moment of slight disagreement between these 2 allies, the u. k. and the us in recent weeks? yes, that is correct. at least um, as far as the problems, the government is concerned, that is a u. k. position u. k wants to permits ukraine to use all storm shadow and missile since cold missiles to the russian targets. now the problem is that, um, the navigational data for these missiles is american. therefore, great britain needs and the american permission that's being said,

it doesn't mean that the opinion within that u. k. is uni for him as one for him. are you, are you k diplomats that we should not discount the fact that put it has no impact to the of them. his red lines that it's going to continue that way. lawrence, if we look at the of the nato countries, 32 nations in nato. i think it's fair to say is it not? but the u. k. is one of the most hawkish countries along perhaps with poland and the baltic nations, which will a geographically close to russia. and of course the baltic nations will once pop to the soviet union. yeah, there's no doubt about the fact that the u. k. is probably the and to the united states, the most significant military power nato. and don't forget the united kingdom along with branch, they have nuclear weapons. i think people forget that of course they've focused really only on the united states. uh, new nuclear weapons. and basically i think what the verdict shock trying to do

quite correctly is present through united front against poland. and by getting american pro permission, even if the united states does not at this time allow a talk comes, it basically sends a signal to prove that the western alliances united against him, particularly upsetting him for recently getting it missiles, you know, from a rather than a north korea and continuing to get the components from china. okay, bringing people in for most go now on specifically the u. k. if you look at the nato countries, um, is it right in saying my impression is the whole, the nato countries, the u. k. is the one the royals most got more than the others. and we also had the recent news that i think it happened some time ago. but the announcement, the 6 you take diplomats have been expelled from us go yes. the

relationship between moscow and one of them is a very low fee of britain has been seen as a 1st survey, very much in moscow during the cold war. oh, not said the red sea, and as the most uh, friendly inmate though there is of course, the both estates this bo and that they're as kind of seen as in russia as being as aggressive as bridges. but the, the big a nuclear kind of powers. yes. most likely it is be seen as the worst and things are now getting a better because, well now with the seems to be pressing along to allow ukraine to. ready use a precision grind it the western long range weapons on russian territory, and not only in front of me, but in other places too. okay,

so let's now move to the diplomacy that took place this week marina. we had the us secretary state anthony blinking going to london meeting his u. k counterpart, the new phone secretary, david lam, you'll said meeting the prime minister to a stomach. then mister, allow me and mister blinking went to go and see the president zalinski in ukraine. and it seems like there was sort of choreography here. it seems like they were edging towards something because the u. k. probably minnesota then was due in washington and was in washington at the end of the week. it looked like they were going to make an announcement. and let me just read to the new york times. headline on thursday by employees to approve ukraine's use of long range western weapons in russia. everyone thought it was going to happen didn't by to absolutely everybody was thinking that this is going to take place. however, i think getting that coalition formed and getting an agreement,

given the fact that the united states also understands the risks being the country pre election. now is problematic. and so what britain is trying to do essentially, is what we have seen was a challenge. yours was, was a tanks one breton, was the country to open the floodgates for others to supply ukraine was tanks because um, sending 14 challenger tanks to ukraine didn't substantially change the situation, but it was a very significant political move. and so we're seeing a rep additional that here. the problem is that the circumstances have changed. the battlefield configuration looks different. and of course, the us politics play a lot into this as well as the british domestic politics. as we have seen, the political toured millions in the past few years. so that's a problem matic. and of course, if we remember how france was trying to create that same coalition by suggesting

that the need or might be willing to send boots on the ground or at these friends would be the 1st country to send boots on the ground in ukraine. and how that didn't work out. and so there is a different strategy now. so let's try with a long range weapons and see if that's a little bar in terms of risk. but what other thing happened didn't that pavel between that new york times headlines saying buying was parties to approve this? and the meeting that took place in the oval office between the u. k prime minister and president biden. and that was the intervention by president putin coming out and saying, but if they did this, it would mean that nato countries were at war with the russia. how significant people do think the woods were of putin because we have had bellicose statements from them before as well from you may be logged as your subordinates. yes. a the

a former president. now that gives his secretary. ready of security john, so need sure. madrid this was talking about this ongoing and to know where warfare may be or war in general. what now it was supposed to what's in the spring, the well, a 100 and very effective current use during the cold war by both sides. it's called break been ship of a term coined by john foster, dallas. and the fifty's means balancing on the brink of nuclear war, one side dresses, the 5th may go, nuclear, demanding the other bag down. this works, it works time and i get it works again a so be that space for then show action. donald trump has been all the time talking about that. this is not the right fit. there's going to be a 3rd world war. and this has an effect on the decision making in washington.

they're holding back as well as well in general during this conference many times. and so he does. yes. that's basically for what the weapons were used mostly during the cold war and before break been shipped. and now it's working in jim book and said that we will go to war, but that really does not mean we'll go to. yeah. but that is a very serious threat that will make the other side and do something or make some concessions. okay, well let's discuss in a moment whether we think protein really means ace and we'll see he could to, but marina just to be clear to us. if he did mean it, if he said that this was now a war between russia and the $32.00 nato members, i mean on the article 5 of the north atlantic treaty, when 1 may to members of tax, then it's done to the old for one article that's considered an act of an old study

too. so just to be just to go down that route for a moment. for me that hypothetical route, that would mean nato versus russia in the war that would effectively mean world war 3. would it not? right? perhaps? yes, and because of the collective self defense, that being said, it depends on where it starts and how nato has been projecting the possible russian invasion in the baltics. which is an interesting scenario and brought the problem was a scenario or is even if that were to happen as it stands right now. nato itself admits that it lacks readiness when it comes to when our conflict or an armed conflict with russia. certainly, we don't know in what shape this would take place, but yes, essentially that would lead to a 3rd world war and would have to remember the unchanged russian nuclear dr. in the for us, for fuel set it states survival is at stake. that is clearly written,

the reserves, the right to use old means including nuclear weapons. so i think that's also increase is a possibility, is that russia might indeed use nuclear weapons. ok, lawrence, what's your view? do you think that president putin means it or is it just bring quin ship? i mean you served as the assistant secretary of defense in the reagan administration. what would re gooden say? what do you say? cold pollutants bluff, and i think he would, based on where we are now, because russia is in a relatively weak position when it comes to this war. don't forget that you have had 600000 troops, either killed or wounded. and basically, if you allow these are the bar attacks into rusher, i think this would have an impact kind of the russian public opinion about this war . because if you listen to what they're saying in russia,

basically they're telling the russian, putting that as people are telling the russian people, everything's going well and we're winning the war. we have, you know, minimum casualties. we don't need to set draftees there yet. but i think if you had these, the tops come deep inside russia, the russian people would say, why the 2nd what's going on. so it's hard to calculate what pool is talking about. i guess you want to are on the side of caution. but the fact of the matter is, i think, in this particular case, it's probably time to call poop is blocked. and by who has tremendous support in the congress, senator jeanne shaheen, who is a democrats from new hampshire. mitch mcconnell, their republican minority, later in the senate, they're both saying no, i use the, a guy comes to go deeper into a russia, so this war wall not drag on, you know,

forever. now the other complicating factor is by normally has a couple of launch left in office and a trunk gets in. we completely change our whole strategy toward ukraine based upon what he said so far. so pavel, you heard the data from lauren c says the u. s. should cool hooton's bluff. how do you see that in moscow? and do you think the situation is the same as other key decision points? pull the west in this will because of course, it comes nearly 6 weeks off to that cushion incursion. that daring ukrainian incursion. seizing 1300 square kilometers of russian tertiary, which that still holding does that change things and change the calculations? the premium thoughts about success and course is important to them, but russia has don't invested those successes during the summer in the don't boss. so rush was advancing in one place,

so the premiums broke through and another. uh oh no, it's all as and it's in summer, it's through a lot of the o'clock. meyer on the front line. neither side has been capable of translating. it's a tactical success, isn't anything strategic. there's a visually developing what something i was full of it when the war of the city said during the iraq iran war in the eighty's when there was also by the quad meyer on the front rod. i'm the they both. 8 are a hit the deep into their own, their tree of the other side, because your brain has been heading deep into russia using its own uh, drones. so long range were just as now as mass producing. there were attacks and moscow just say so several, just recently there was at that and the fire was united that to uh, oil refinery in the outskirts of the city. of course, if you like brittany,

as we're allowed to use the western precision drive, as well as for to add up to their own long range drones that would be dangerous. actually, the storm shadow or scope, according direction source. this has a range of over $500.00 to how much there's and basically just moscow. these are really adobe. a storm shadow is the other. so it's a subsonic above him can be shut down, but it's very precise that can be seen as a very serious development because basically, but if it does so for us to put things on residence or the russian highest fast in moscow. a. so we, i, i'm not said the address is ready to go over to the new place threshold that your 1st threshold is very high. and that actually does not have but a new career monopoly. if you go over the threshold, the other size might go to

a that's very dangerous, but the situations that get much more serious asked for escalades into a war of the cities where everything motion you bring, where the western long range weapons will be also involved. so lawrence, where do you think things stand right now at the moment with the us the us position because no decision was made despite this all expecting long at that meeting in the oval office with now told of from prime minister k as tom of the u. k prime minister the wants have another meeting with allies, including president biden on the sidelines of the un general assembly in new york, which is just over a week's time. so do you think by and blinked to was this booked by pretends warnings, or do you think this is going to be revisited? and eventually that ukraine is going to be given this permission to strike much deeper into russia. i think it's going to be revisited,

less russia changes the way they've been fighting this war of what the, you know, stream bombardment of the many places in ukraine which as you know, increased uh recently. so i'll let the u. n. meeting. i think if you can get a number of other countries involved, not just the united kingdom, then you will see by the time changes change his mind. and basically, i think how does that he has shown an incredible amount of patients he didn't came in right away just apart and put the new york times the day. but the day before. but if he goes to the you, when that he can say, well, we talked about it, i consider it. and now the world community says we need to deal with. because as far as dragging on and off and don't forget, russia is also represented up at the united nations and they can complain about as their. but the fact of the matter is, i think that's the direction that we're going to,

that we're going to go. because unless we do this, this war is going to drag on forever. they'll continue to have casual lease on both sides. but this could be a game changer to get rush or the come to the negotiating table. okay, well i want to go to marino on that point. could it be a game changer? because apparently there was some of the us administrator, like the defense secretary, lloyd austin, who said it would really make much of a difference because these missiles will not tell them the tied to the war. because the russians have moved lots of the attack assets and add bases beyond the range of these missiles and the robot. many of them, the stockpiles are running low. what do you make of those documents? so i think those are very valid points. um, when it comes to the amount of missiles that are available in the us inventory, and even if we're talking about storm and scope a storm shadow and scope missiles, so that, that's the 1st thing. the 2nd thing is, one type of missile says arrow launched. the other one is launched from the likes

of high mars, right? so we cannot compare apples and pears here, but for a moment, let's assume the premiums would get the permission to use storm shadow and scope missiles. they would have to utilize f 16 so they would have had to train for these specific permissions in order to be able to use them. for a 2nd is there are russian growing, beastie or defense as to which these gaps are susceptible. but even if we take away the russian from base to air defenses and electronic warfare, because a storm shuttle is called missiles, they say they have triple navigation, but they still rely on gps the data size. if you crane can strike tar yet, such as a courtesy or error field is going to make a difference. and this is a crucial point. if we look at the military history of deep strikes, what has to follow wrong maneuver? and is ukraine going to follow up with

a drama new where it doesn't have that capability? and the answer is no, because we have seen that the korean um forces were not able to muster it during the last time. last year is contra offensive, and it's a very difficult task to master. so it is always isolated, deep strikes was a limited number of missiles that ukraine has, might do some damage. but in military terms, they are not going to change the situation, then they're not going to make russia give up. it's opperation in the don't bass, it's not going to make the general staff was rules or forces from ukraine. so what if carries was at our extreme political risks, as we have discussed before, a lot of unknowns with little military value and a high cost from so few as dollar cost. okay, well thank you very much indeed. thank you to all 3 of our guests today,

how people felt and how maureen, them it wrong, and lauren scope and thank you to for watching. if you didn't catch all of the programs, what rates available for you to view any time you want it out to 0 to come, you'll views and suggestions roll as well can post them on facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. on x, where a handle is at a inside story until next time for me, james, based on the team here. and though ha, please. they say bye for now the to ensure lancoste 1st selection. since it was hit by economic crisis, voters will choose a new president as the nation faces crippling austerity measures. many say the poorest of suffering the most. what direction would the country take as it takes tough decisions? sure, line collection on al jazeera. from the, the narrative to media was from propaganda to the changing face of journalism. i

have never seen lead media consensus change so quickly questioning what is reported and what is not the video's 1st or reinforced a discourse. it is coming out of every sector of the as rarely, official machinery. they're all palestinians are the enemy citizen, the post, the codes, the media, or the jersey. they will remote to defend the american constitution again. so why would they take up homes against the country? as the us heads towards the presidential election, a new series explodes, the role of military veterans in far right column groups. that's a cool potential threat to democracy against all enemies on out to 0. me since its inception in 1961. the great fund has

been supporting people's livelihoods and over 100 countries, by funding projects in an array of sectors ranging from infrastructure to health and education. these initiatives ultimately help to eradicate poverty and promote sustainable development the, [000:00:00;00] the hello. this is in use our analogies here um for these back people live in the coming up in the next 60 minutes. tens of thousands of back on the streets of tel aviv demanding these really,

governments do more to bring home captives held in cost american turkish activities high. she knew as yankee is buried,