pod is on record with temperature is 1.9 degrees celsius, higher than the seasonal average with detailed coverage, the weeks of call them entry k. also political i search and see how my new micros reputation from around the world the day. and why is that night, the old demanding, just to split a doctor who was raped and killed the months ago in the city a no green light. so you crane to use long range, west and made missiles in russian territory. vladimir putin so such a move would meet without rule with nato members. but how serious is wanting? and what difference could these weapons make on the battlefield? this is inside story, the

hello that wrong change phase the war in ukraine. is it a critical juncture, western allies, a considering a shift and the support allowing you crying to use long range missiles against targets deep inside russian territory? ukraine has been pleading for the go ahead for months, but there's no indication when or if the us president joe biden will grant the request. the criminal as well and such approval would be made to members were directly involved in the conflict will. what's the nation's cross president vladimir putin's red line? and if they do, how will russia respond? we'll discuss these questions a many more with, i'll guess in a moment. but 1st, this report from axles on the, which in washington, a, somebody that could reshape the battlefield in ukraine. us presidential by then, and british prime minister, cure star me or are waiting up a critical decision. should ukraine be allowed to use western me besides the hit targets deep inside russia? the weapons in question include the british french manufacturers storm shadow. they

have a range of 250 kilometers and fly close to the speed of sound. at the american made army technical missile systems known as outcomes, and they have a range of 300 kilometers and carry 225 kilograms of explosives. both could reach far beyond the front lines and straight crushing military sites. president, below the muse, alaska has long call for these weapons st. there, crucial to ukraine's defenses. until recently, western nations have been reluctant to give to go ahead. viewing an escalation of the complex. but there reconsidering in light of reports that iran is supplying russia with ballistic missiles, the vice president. why do you me to put in says the use of western made long reach weapons. the door would be crossing a red line. it will mean nothing less than the direct participation of nato, the us and europe in countries in the war in ukraine. the direct participation significantly

changes the very ss, the very nature of the conflict. and then this will mean natal, i'm the us and european countries all fighting russia. it's not the 1st time he's issued such warnings since the war began. in february 2022. the west has steadily increased the military a to ukraine, testing most cost result. this war of attrition has reached a very critical stage in which now there are ukraine and frontlines beginning to collapse. so the dilemma for nato is, does it negotiate or escalates to keep the war going? and, and it seems as if some are pushing for negotiations while others are pushing for escalation. so this is why the united states, this would be cautious because it's, it's, it's, it should be because if de escalate this one too much, they might not be able to negotiate and more and also it's the loss of unintended

consequences. so at some point, the rush hour will, will retaliate. a response by russia could be severe, puts it has threatened to upgrade air defenses, destroy incoming missiles and even arm of western adversaries abroad, such as iran and the north korea. there's also talk of revising approaches nuclear policy. despite all this, president biden seems i'm willing to cross buttons latest red line for at least for now excellence. i'm gonna reach out to 0 for insights story the as well. let's discuss all of this further with today's panel of guests who are joining us from mosca. we joined by people soaking. holla, he's an independent russian defense analyst for munich. marina me wrong is post doctoral research at the will studies department,

kings college in london. i'm from washington dc lawrence called for my assistant secretary of defense. thank you for joining us today on inside story moreno. let me start with you before we get into what it's been going on in the diplomacy this week, taking place in ukraine in washington. and before we find out what was said, it must go, let's just go back to basics. was easy. but ukraine actually wants the model. they have these long range missiles as i understand it, they need permission to use them in a different way. correct. so what you praying is essentially asking for is the storm shadow in scope missiles that it already has at the disposal to be used on russian territory discharge deep into russia. and of course, it also has american ad accounts, which have a range of 300 kilometers so they can reach even falls or a. so those would be in question as well. and ukraine,

arguments it as self defense, saying that it could hit military targets and degrade rushes capability to wage war against ukraine. and just to follow up on that marina, just to be absolutely clear. i don't want to go into all the details of the military capabilities of these missiles, but the storm shadow and the scalp. the storm shadow is a u. k. miss sile, the scouts i'm right in saying is, is almost identical with a french variant of the same a miss all. i'm the other one which is the army tactical missile system, which is known by this acronym attack columns that so us miss saw what is the range of the of, of these so that is correct. so it's a range for era launched call us form shuttle missiles is 250 kilometers. and for the american ad accounts is 300 kilometers. lawrence, i'm your take on ukraine. one thing these miss solves, as i understand it,

they submitted to both the us and the u. k. a potential list of targets that that's correct. basically, they are prohibited from using these weapons that my colleague is just talked about . the storm shadow and a tack comes to attack targets deep into russia. and the, you know, the, the range is a couple of 100, a couple 100 miles. because if they can attack goes, it will make it more difficult for russia to continue to bomb and, and ukraine. we have been very careful about not letting them do that because we are basically up to now been concerned that we would take this as an excuse to possibly even use nuclear weapons against the ukraine. marina. you all there in munich, but you look for the war studies department of kings college london. so you

understand the u. k. position, i think is what focusing for a little bit before we find out what has happened in the last few days on the u. k . position the u. k. seems to be pretty teen to let you crane use it. storm shadow mississauga in a new way. is that your, your understanding? and is this a rare moment of slight disagreement between these 2 allies? the u. k. m, the us in recent weeks. yes, that is correct at least. and as far as the problems, the government is concerned, that is the u. k. position u. k. wants to permits ukraine to use all storm shadow missile since cold missiles to the russian targets. now the problem is that, um, the navigational data for these missiles is american. therefore, great britain needs and the american permission that's being said, it doesn't mean that the opinion within that u. k. is uni for him as one for him. are you, are you k diplomats that we should not discount the fact that put it has no impact

to the of them. his red lines that it's going to continue that way. lawrence, if we look at the of the nato countries, 32 nations in nato. i think it's fair to say is it not? but the u. k. is one of the most hawkish countries along perhaps with poland and the baltic nations, which will a geographically close to russia. and of course the baltic nations well once pop to the soviet union. yeah, there's no doubt about the fact that the u. k. is probably the answer to the incline. it states the most significant military power nato. and don't forget the united kingdom along with branch, they have nuclear weapons. i think people forget that of course they've focused really only on the united states, a new nuclear weapons. and basically, i think what the british are trying to do quite correctly is present through united front against poland. and by getting american pro permission,

even if the united states does not at this time allow a talk comes, it basically sends a signal to prove that the western alliances united against him, particularly upsetting him for recently getting it missile. so, you know, from a rather than a north korea and continuing to get the components from china. okay, bringing people in for most go now on specifically the u. k. if you look at the nato countries, um, is it right in saying my impression is the whole, the nato countries? um, the u. k. is the one the royal's most skilled, more than the others. and we also had the recent news that i think it happened some time ago, but the announcement, the 6 u. k. diplomats had been expelled from us go yes, the relationship between moscow and one of them is a very low fee of britain has been seen as the 1st survey,

very much in moscow as during the cold war. oh not said the red sea and as the most uh on friendly in may go. there is of course the voltage stays this po and that there as kind of seen as in russia as a v, as aggressive as bridges. but the big a nuclear kind of powers. yes, most likely it is be seen as the worst and things are not getting a better because well now with the seems to be pressing along to allow your brain to. ready use the precision grind it the western long range weapons on russian territory, and not only in front of me, but in other places too. okay, so let's now move to the diplomacy that took place this week marina. we had the us secretary state anthony blinking going to london meeting his u. k counterpart,

the new phone secretary, david lam, you'll send meeting the prime minister to his stomach. then mister, allow me and mister blinking went to go and see president zalinski in ukraine. and it seems like there was sort of choreography here. it seemed like they were edging towards something because the u. k. prime minister then was due in washington and was in washington at the end of the week. it looked like they were going to make an announcement. and let me just read to the new york times. headline on thursday by employees to approve ukraine's use of long range western weapons in russia. everyone thought it was going to happen didn't by to absolutely, everybody was thinking that this is going to take place. however, i think getting that correlation formed and getting an agreement, given the fact that the united states also understands the risks being the country

pre election. now is problematic. and so what britain is trying to do essentially, is what we have seen was a challenge. yours was, was a tanks one breton, was the country to open the floodgates for others to supply ukraine was tanks because um, sending 14 challenger tanks to ukraine didn't substantially change the situation, but it was a very significant political move. and so we're seeing a repetition of that here. the problem is that the circumstances have changed. the battlefield configuration looks different. and of course the us politics play a lot into this as well as the british domestic politics. as we have seen, the political toured millions in the past few years. so that's a problem matic. and of course, if we remember how france was trying to create that same coalition by suggesting, designate or might be willing to send boots on the ground or at these fronts would be the 1st country to send boots on the ground in ukraine. and how that didn't work

out. and so there is a different strategy now. so let's try with a long range weapons and see if that's a little bar in terms of risk. but one other thing happened didn't that pavel between that new york times headline saying by me was pleased to approve this and the meeting that took place in the oval office between the u. k prime minister and president biden. and that was the intervention by president putin. coming out and saying, but if they did this, it would mean that nato countries were at war with the russia. how significant people do think the woods were of putin because we have had bellicose statements from him before as well, from what you may be logged as your subordinates. yes. to be a former president. now that get this secretary of security, john, so need to madrid. this was talking about this all over again to know where warfare

may be or war in general. what now it was the boats in what's in the spring, the well, i'm not very effective car use during the cold war by both sides. it's called break been ship a term coined by john foster, dulles. and the fifty's means balancing on the brink of nuclear war, one side, dresses the business and go, nuclear demanding. the other bag down. and this works, it works time and i get it works again a so be that, that space for then show election. donald trump has been all the time talking about that. this is not the record that is going to be a 3rd world war. and this has an effect on the decision making in washington. they're holding back. that's how it works in general during this conference many times. and so he does. yes. that's for basically for what do,

where weapons were used mostly during the cold war. and for break by ship, and now it's working again a book and said this will go to war. but that really does not mean we'll go to. yeah. but that is a very serious, a threat that will make the other side and do something or make some concessions. okay, well let's discuss in a moment whether we think protein really means it's and we'll see he could do. but marina, just to be clear to us, if he did mean it, if he said that this was now a war between russia and the $32.00 nato members, i mean on the article 5 of the north atlantic treaty, when one data members attacked, then it's known as the old for one optical that's considered an act of an old study too. so just to be just to go down that route for a moment, for me to hypothetical route, that would mean nato versus russia and a war that would effectively mean world war 3. would it not? right? perhaps?

yes. and because of the collective self defense, that being said, it depends on where it starts and how nato has been projecting the possible russian invasion in the baltics. which is an interesting scenario and broke the problem was a scenario or is even if that were to happen as it stands right now. nato itself admits that it lacks readiness when it comes to when are conflict or in conflict with russia. certainly, we don't know in what shape this would take place, but yes, essentially that would lead to a 3rd world war and would have to remember the unchanged russian nuclear dr. in the fracture feels that it's the survival is at stake. that is clearly written the reserves, the right to use old means including nuclear weapons. so i think that's also

increases of possibilities that russia might indeed use nuclear weapons. ok, lawrence, what's your view? do you think that president putin means it or is it just bring quin ship? i mean you served as the assistant secretary of defense in the reagan administration. what would re gooden say? what do you say? cold pollutants bluff, and i think he would, based on where we are now, because russia is in a relatively weak position when it comes to this war. don't forget that you have had 600000 troops, either killed or wounded. and basically, if you allow these are the per attacks into rusher, i think this would have an impact on it. the russian public opinion about this war . because if you listen to what they're say and russia, basically they're telling the russian, putting that as people are telling the russian people everything going well and we're winning the war, we have, you know,

minimum casualties. we don't need to said draftees there yet. but i think if you had these attacks come deep inside rush or the russian people would say why the 2nd what's going on? so it's hard to calculate what pool is talking about. i guess you want to are on the side of caution. but the fact of the matter is, i think, in this particular case, it's probably time to call poop is bluff. and by who has tremendous support in the congress. senator jeanne shaheen, who is a delta grok from new hampshire. mitch mcconnell, their republican minority, later in the senate, they're both saying no, i use the, a guy comes to go deeper into russia. so this war, walmart drag on, you know, forever. now the other complicating factor is by knowing as a couple of launch left in office and a trunk gets in, we completely change our whole strategy toward ukraine based upon what he has said

so far. it's so pavel you heard that from lawrence. he says the us should cool putin's bluff. how do you see that in moscow and do you think the situation is the same as other key decision points for the west? and this will because of course, it comes nearly 6 weeks off to that cushion incursion, that daring ukrainian incursion. seizing 1300 square kilometers a russian tower tree, which that still holding does that change things and change the calculations. the premium for the success of course is important to them. but russia has the best of both successes during the summer in the boss. so russian was advancing in one place, so the premiums broke through and another uh all along with the lessons in summer its through a lot of the across the wire on the front line. neither side has been capable of

translating its a technical success as into anything strategic. there's a visually developed thing, what something are with full of it when the war of the safety said during the rock around water in the eighty's. when there was also by the quagmire on the front side of the both sides were a hit, the deep into their, their tray of the other side. because your brain has been heading deep into russia using its own drones. so long range rate, just as now as mass producing, there were attacks and moscow just say so several, just recently there was a fact and the fire was united that the uh, oil refinery in the outskirts of the city. of course, if the premiums were allowed to use the western precision. brad as well as for to add up to their own long range drones that would be dangerous. and actually the

storm shadow or stop according direction sources has a range of over $500.00 to how much there's and could basically just moscow. these are really adobe storm shadow is the other side. so it's a stop sign that's above him, can be shut down. but it's very precise that the receive as a very serious development because basically, but if it does so for a put in zone residence or the russian highest fast in moscow. so yeah, i'm not say the price is ready to go over to the new with threshold. the offers threshold is very high and it actually does not have but a new career monopoly. if you go over the threshold, the other side might go to a that's very dangerous, but the situation, the get much more serious asked for escalades into

a war of the cities where i would be much than you bring where the best and long range weapons will be also involved. so lauren's, where do you think things stand right now at the moment with the us, the us position because no decision was made despite this all expecting long at that meeting in the oval office with now told of from prime minister kiss tom of the u. k. prime minister the wants have another meeting with allies, including president biden on the sidelines of the un general assembly in new york, which is just over a week's time. so do you think bite and blink to was he's booked by pollutants warnings. oh, do you think this is going to be revisited? and eventually that ukraine is going to be given this permission to strike much deeper into russia, and i think it's going to be revisited less rusher changes the way they've been fighting this war and have what they, you know, stream bombardment of many places in ukraine which as you know, increased recently,

so i'll have to you when meeting. i think if you can get a number of other countries involved, not just the united kingdom, then you will see by the time change is change his mind. and basically, i think how does that he has thrown an incredible amount of patients he didn't came in right away this part and put the new york times the day. but the day before. but if he goes to the you, when that he can say, well, we talked about it, i consider it. and now the world community says we need to deal with. because as far as dragging on and off and don't forget, russia is also represented us at the united nations and they can complain about as their. but the fact of the matter is, i think that's the direction that we're going to, that we're going to go. and because unless we do this, this war is going to drag on forever. they'll continue to have casual lease on both sides. but this could be a game changer,

took care rush or the come to the negotiating table. okay, well i want to go to marino on that point. could it be a game changer? because apparently there was some of the us administration, like the defense secretary, lloyd austin, who said it would really make much of a difference because these missiles will not tell them the tied to the war. because the russians have moved lots of the attack assets and add bases beyond the range of these missiles and the robot. many of them, the stop pauses are running low. what do you make of those arguments there? well, i think those are very valid points. um, when it comes to the amount of missiles that are available in the us inventory, and even if we're talking about storm and scope, a storm shadow and scope missiles, so that, that's the 1st thing. the 2nd thing is, one type of missiles is arrow launched. the other one is launched from the likes of high mars, right? so we cannot compare apples and pears here, but for a moment, let's assume the premiums would get the permission to use storm shadow and scope

missiles. they would have to utilize at 16. so they would have had to train for these specific permissions in order to be able to use them. for a 2nd is there are russian growing based air defenses through which these gaps are susceptible. but even if we take away the russian from base the air defenses and electronic warfare, because a storm shuttle has caught missiles, they say they have triple navigation, but they still rely on gps the data size. if you crane can strike target such as a car, a skier air field is going to make a difference. and this is a crucial point. if we look at the military history of deep strikes, what has to follow and wrong maneuver, and is ukraine going to follow up with a drama new? where does it have that capability? and the answer is no. because we have seen that the korean um forces were not able to muster it during the last time. last year is comprehensive and it's

a very difficult task to master. so it is always isolated. deep strikes was the limited number of missiles that ukraine has, might do some damage. but in military terms, they are not going to change the situation, then they're not going to make russia give up. it's opperation in the don't bass. it's not going to make the general staff was rules or forces from ukraine. so what it carries was that are extreme political risks, as we have discussed before, a lot of unknowns was little military value and a high cost terms of us dollar cost. okay, well thank you very much indeed. thank you. to all 3 of our guests today. probably focus on how maureen them it wrong and lauren scope and thank you to for watching. if we didn't catch all of the program, the what rates available for you to view any time you want it out to 0 to come,

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