the administer from bangladesh, with 360 homes in britain, jerry looked down. you spent 200000000, just a new you tank has vanished up any point yet. the only thing you might want to say, i mean, how does your investigates the ministers, millions of no refuge for enemies in his follow strong holes as rose warning of the foaming a residential suburb of the favorite. dozens of people have been killed, including top, come on, this is the group. so what does this mean for his brother? i'm the region. this is inside story, the hello that i am james base and is writing the explosion is rock southern bay root

crossing another. so called red line for his bowler, the killing of senior come on this as well as civilians is a major breach of security for the group. a nation or where do you on edge for years. it's for a minister, it's also an emergency meeting of the un security council, but nobody is safe with israel diverting focus on forces to the north. is it preparing a ground invasion for what it cools? a 2nd phase of the war on cause of how much will blow as a list to his bowler, and is the region already we'll, we'll put those questions to i'll get shortly along with many of us. but 1st, this report from image and combine 3 major attacks, one level in full days. i had the latest an asteroid in a densely populated sub up inside. they were getting over a 1000 people. one was a bringing i can. one of the most senior commanders in has been as a lead rod. one forces that came of the dozens of people were killed. i'm thousands

injured when pages and then will be 2 peas exploded across 11 on tuesday and wednesday targets of the attacks members of hezbollah. but members of the public will say victims including children. uh, but i me, isn't this terrorism when you target a whole population and they cities, markets and homes while they change the daily life, while they're not sufficing on the front. a, we seeking today, the relation of the lebanese peoples has its collective punishment. since the stalls of israel's war on cause the last type of hezbollah, his launch book attacks into northern israel an exchange fly with his ready forces across 11 on the southern buddha declaring its support for him ass palestinians in the strip in a special appearance of the security council, the lebanese for administer reminded the un during the past year of conflict is ralph has threatened to send 11 on back to the site and h. u. n declared. this week's tax using communication devices and 11 on

a violation of international law. car died without regard for its civilian population. international humanitarian law prohibits the use of booby trapped the devices in the form of a parent. the homeless, portable objects which are specifically designed and constructed to contain exclusive material. it is a war crime to commit to violence. intended to spread tara among civilian israel, has admitted caring at the striking they read and just continue to make threats. if he's about those north retreats from our border in the back to the north of really tiny river food diploma efforts. if there will be left with no choice but to use any means within our rights to defend. i will see these in israel's army has moved troops to it's northern border with lebanon in what combined is a cooling, the 2nd phase of the war on cause a. the latest attacks are

a major blow to hezbollah, unexposed weaknesses in its security for office. the groups lead to have some natural pull. mr. bench and rockets, floods from southern lebanon, have since struck the north of his ro, followed by israel se sending rockets across the border. the people across the 11 own living in fear of what might come next. while the un spokesperson said the region is on the brink of catastrophe, image and kimber out 0 for inside story. well, let's discuss a little bit further with today's guess on inside story. in athens, we have nicholas know he's editor in chief of bay route based middle east, while adult calm in beirut, semi nada, director of the vent institute for strategic affairs and in london, samuel romani associates fellow at the royal united services institute, middle east program. thank you all 3 of you for joining us today on inside story.

i'd like to go to you 1st me because you of the in pay routes. we know the trauma, lebanese people have suffered in recent years. economic collapse that port explosion in 2020 the killed, more than 200 people. tell me what the atmosphere is that this week off to all of these events. how will people coping? i mean, associated is that also deep anxiety and, and fear. because as you mentioned about them, instead of going through an unprecedented economic and financial crisis that even use found has those 98 percent of its value. this is on one side. and on the other side, i mean that even these people have still in the flash memory, they lose the boat to bloss to trash it the and, and have a dot to entry it. well, that's why i said that he's not the prostate has student have in mind that 2006 war

and it's the best, the thing impact on that even he's infrastructure on the but news economy, so they don't want to go. so this is through with this kind of a tragedy again, so the moment is the moment of feed, it's a moment of anxiety especially that, that things are going through an escalation, a truck. it's through the tree or not it to a full blown wall, but tree all on the very edge of it. so i said something on something. when i said many of the people, of course, do not have the money or the means to leave lebanon. but people, you speak to all that people now thinking it's time may be if they have a visa to get out of the country. definitely, especially among good they use the only thing that they want is to look for for the new horizon, for the security 1st. and what we have being witnessing recent,

the task that this was not only among the they use, but even the people of 3rd age. because they are looking for data on security that you lost their savings in the banks. and now they are about to, to last to their home. so one small samuel, i'm get, let's get your view one. how serious is this moment in your judgment? how close are we to a full blown regional war? well, i think that over the past year has the line, israel have operated basically under a set of underwritten ground rules. eventually that was retaliated for cat across the border, but refrained from any hiding mass of installation that would lead to repeat what we saw in 1982 or 2006 and very visuals and x rays in washington. what was the due over the past several months, they were fairly confident to that, that as well would remain intact. but down over the past week or so, i think that we have seen now i hate and risk of escalation,

of course is still possible that israel, that strikes on that as a lot of targets, which have been paired with the tax on syria taking all these young people 2 weeks ago and he had gone because he has blind arise just over the past several hours. you as a proxy melisha and the threats to retaliate against the hyper sonic dissolves drank from yeah. good. yeah. be just needed to turn around as proxies for further escalation binding to the risk of an accident. the war is rising highly because it has to be a response in a more forceful way then digital anticipates, than israel could see those which hasn't bell a for a bigger complex. so i think that both sides have been trying to keep this in jet. but the risk of a misperception or an accident or an unintentionally largest wage that one sided document we were fortunate. the route is very, very high right now. nicholas, let me ask you to look back on the week's events. so we've had bombs hidden in pages. bomb sitting in walkie talkies and then a major bombing in the southern suburbs. how do you assess the damage to his ball

up from those various events that we've seen in recent days? well, i think the secretary general has well enough for all the sets and it's, it's been said by a number of their allies and partisans. unless this is probably collectively the, the hardest hit that has well as had militarily, perhaps ever since its founding decades ago. so certainly the strike yesterday, the largest concentration of key leaders, and these are really generational leaders, founders of the organization, um uh, altogether in one strike, a is unprecedented and is a very heavy blow for the organization. but i think in contrast to what your guest just said, if we look at it collectively over these days, i don't think that one can say reasonably, but he's really is trying to keep things in check. it's obvious that they are going for

a much more heightened set of military strikes on has bella and on living on much more widely than the previous. let's say 10 to 11 months. they view, i think, an opportunity where hezbollah clearly does not want to go towards open war at this point. so these really is just feel that because as well as counter strikes and them have had very limited import that this is an opportune moment to try and as widely as possible. uh, push test butler militarily with various strikes including the, you know, huge mass casualty attacks like we've seen with the water tucker to what kentucky attacks and the pedro attacks. so i think that actually the israelis look as if they are and they will continue to significantly raise the bar of their strikes. and i think, but unfortunately we're not in an accidental war sort of scenario here. we're on

a very clear path towards an open war, and let's be clear that the major reason, although there are lot, many historical factors and structural factors. but the primary most immediate reason is the failure to get a durable cease fire in gaza and in the war over gaza. and that, that is the number one thing that is leading us to words. what will not be an accident, but very much a sort of clear pathway, a slippery slope which you want, but a clear pathway, none the less towards a much wider war and one that will be immensely destructive for 11 on and also immensely disruptive for israel as well, sammy, the attacks we've seen this week. clearly his bolos communications are going to be damaged by this. it's come on this. some have died so it's come on to its force is going to be damaged. we just put this all in perspective because this is a very large organization with a vast us know of weaponry and drones and missiles and

a very large number of well trained fighters. yeah, that's true. i mean, the rule that they have so taking is, is substantiate. and one thing to raise the question whether has been law is to have the capability to keep on the surface condition, try and whether it's task that capabilities to sustain it for real. no. it's through dot the has bought it upside to clearly that they don't want to. it would that they aren't ready to stop the that back to uh was a ceasefire in gossip and the on pretty bad for it. so after the event of the for last day, one raises the question about the there are readiness for this. uh, uh, this, uh, this war. and the movie has been, uh, i know something about him cents as

a noticed uh, what is it good supremacy of uh is it? i am so and this will end, particularly at the top of the 2023. 2 is different from that of, uh, 2006. it's, uh, it's highly uh, technological and then i hear you have a, i don't know to you versus the technology. and it's clear that the doors who have the commodities supremacy got today or the upper hand. and the, and this events shows how much committed a system of has by law is exposed, is one level and has been infiltrated by a. is it a secret to a surfaces on the, on despite this? i mean, that's what all yesterday, a vote to continue that back to, to the link what the war p is watching, that this word of support on what's happening and go some but to keeping in mind

that tweet or not anymore in this deep for at dive before we are into a dialect tool, it's to dot, it did not cross that the final line to sort of the country into a for a brewing brownwood, but we are uh, getting good there and okay, i got let, let, let me just focus on those that have died in terms of the, his bullock come on, struck shot because to come on this one was a ahmed while be but perhaps the most significant of those that died. abraham keel was one of his boldest, most senior military leaders and a member of the jihad council. its highest military body. he was wanting to them the u. s. in connection with his role in the 1983 bombings and by roots of the us embassy. the kill $63.00 people and us marine corps barracks and which $241.00 american personnel died, kills assassination is the 2nd of leading his bottom of that tree for getting

buried in less than 2 months in july and is really a strike killed the group's top military commander from chicago. so nicholas, just bring us a spotlight a briefly on abraham keel. how important we'll see you in the come on structure of his ball. well, one is that, you know, talking about the internal command structure of hezbollah by anyone outside. and analysts like us is extremely fraught. i think what we know from the public reporting and what's been acknowledged by hezbollah is that he played and the others that were killed as well yesterday. and obviously in the past days and weeks played key rules, these are the main components of their highest most secretive leadership council. but it's, it's also, i think, really important to look at it as a, as a huge generational shift through them being taken off the battlefield through

assassination. by the way, it's not just these figures in the last few days and weeks that have been assassinated. there's a long litany of hezbollah, key foundational founding figures that have been taken off the battlefield. most notably might move me in 2008 in a, in an assassination in damascus. but there been many others, but the dean and many others. some of the eas, it's etc. so what you have now is you have a, you know, 45 year old or 40 year old organization that has been through a tremendous amount of military and political conflicts. and what you're seeing is really the, the kind of founding membership, the founding leaders, a significant amount it seems, have been assassinated and taken off the battlefield. now we can say that on the one hand and it's very hard to assess again from the outside. but on the other hand, i would disagree with sammy respectfully, that you know,

these kinds of attacks of the last few days and of the last few weeks. and even of the, the kind of assassinations of founding members kind of radically destabilizes or kind of leads has below much towards class. i think this is an organization, that's why the knowledge to be extremely deep, an organizationally very strong. and they have over the last 10 years, especially since their involvement in the serial war and the consultation with isis and other soon as yacht as groups. they have had a significant amount of battle field training of new members coming through the ranks. and this is a very dynamic organization, as i think even its enemies will acknowledge. so yeah. okay, so now if i can bring in samuel abraham f keel who we've been talking about, had a us arrest warrant facing him. they, they were going to pay if he had been captured up to $7000000.00 us dollars. what do you think this? what will have this happened? the fact to the fact that he was killed on the us response to all of this,

the library and the count certainly wasn't enemy number one for the american since i've, i've been i, there wasn't just for the 19 easy bombings and the roofs. there was also that he killed was allegedly lead to the to him, americans and german has kept us during the $98.00. and so this is obviously something that the americans would probably cheer on. i mean, it's unclear exactly how helpful actually it was within the organization. we know that he was in tennessee. we don't, us goes to mooney. we'd have heard some reports of the been involved in that logistics. this is the person who never really given an interview in the shadowy figure hasn't really had much of a public role flash sooner. the other commander was estimated, for example, was more involved in the procurement is to get what somebody for angela. so nat geo was probably less involved in that. so i think of the us would probably see this, obviously some kind of belated revenge and probably view with the side really. but they'll probably be looking at the bigger picture here. i think the americans are pretty consistent in

a dialogue with the as early as they don't necessarily want an outbreak of a much larger one level not personally intended with the upcoming elections. okay, sammy, when we looked at these latest attacks this week that been large civilian death, told involved and the wrong nicholas mentioned the targeting of a map book, nia, in 2008. well, that was a targeted assassination. he was the only one who died and yet so many innocent civilians have been killed this week. do you think israel is less concerned about international outrage and that there was a different measure of ideas? riley's, they calibrate this differently now off to off to the war on gaza. the reason is, i hasn't shown any side also concern when it comes to the city and conduct the damage. and do we have seen a dot to and in gospel. so why live on the would be the different and we have

seen all of the database going on joining the session on the international justice court and to and the, the how, how is it that you have been accused of not to take any action to secure that best opinion set, why doing its operation, and it's true dot to what happened for the last 4 days. come at the detriment of disobedient. this is why a lot of show as was of that even use population even do they this day from government to the dis, equity was, has well, uh on. it's funny. see on the fact that he's keeping the arms beside different. he's army uh, feet fired. so daddy t deep, so the key was that it's especially the door cbs that paid the

price off for this war. and consider that is that i, the doctor has a blue to. okay, but on a well, i think it's worth now looking at what israel says it's doing. and last monday, the israeli cabinet changed its war objectives. go to the war in gauze, not only to free these, riley captives and defeat a mouse, bought to a residence, to the north, to safely return to their homes. that seems to be nicholas a new objective cam. this subjective be achieved without israel going in on the ground, the ground defensive and you'll view well, ground. defensive is one thing, but also so i think the more immediate calculation is kind of wider devastation of hezbollah targets and lebanese targets as well. and i think that that's what we're more likely to see, i think is real recognizes, as you know, us named officials have and is really

a name. the officials have in the past few weeks that in ground operation looks terrible for the israelis. um, it does not look like a very good a prospect for them that that said, you know, the, the core issue i think is that has bola enough for all of the said this in no uncertain terms the other day has. butler is very unlikely to change gates, policy of military pressure linked to a durable cease fire and gaza. they are very unlikely to change that policy under attack. and indeed, i cannot imagine a scenario where is really kind of being of these strategic and quote unquote targeted attacks that, that somehow puts enough pressure on has bella to relent. and does that, you know, citizens have been north and israel can return to their homes. i highly doubt that force. that's why i think it's unfortunately more likely that the israelis at some

point through a mixture of hubris over the last few days and weeks of the success of their attacks. as well as internal political pressure from northern residents and elsewhere that they have to and they will expand their operations in 11 on such that we reached a point where we are essentially in open warfare between okay, by the 11 on and is room ok. of course, saw me will be all the factor on and all of this is what iran might do because we still have it wrong. saying that that would set some time ago that it was going to retaliate for the assassination intent wrong. of the mass data is male, on the back, on july, the 31st. what's your view on how iran is going to play things right now? well, obviously there's been a tremendous amount of outreach coming through from the readings, the media towards. what is your life that especially in response to the major attack and the injury that was, will lead to where i see you. i need a bass here inside the ridge. but dad,

he doesn't get really. the roommate clear weather around actually wants a full blown regional war that would probably involve. so i must have old friends at once and through the age symmetric extracts, right? keep in mind that the is really the running were to engage that kind of conflict. you could probably say these are these carrying out more tax on that he has of lying around against key military infrastructure inside syria, where the russians are already re deploying some of their air defense systems. a way to bring them to the running and theater. and also potentially inside dinner. so i think that it right, definitely showing a lot of solidarity right now with as well. and with deliver these people at the but i think it, it also is heavy. it's beneficial whether it actually wants a football award to be dragged in directly into it. okay, so i mean, i want you to sum up now what you think call a and the chances of diplomatic efforts. the u. s. has an invoice, a most hochstein. he had apply and he was trying to work a plan,

but it seems to be the problem with his plan is his bullet, those stages a said that the warning gauze must stop and nothing yahoo doesn't seem to show any appetite for the other plan. but the us of pushing that deal to try and get a ceasefire. and garza definitely, i mean, at the position of most thought these are very, very far apart on one hand. and i'm not sure it has, but wants to keep the rules of engagement as this was the bidding on october 6 before october 7. and is that i, it is determined to change this equation to change this sort of, uh, engagement in order to ensure that he turned off for that as it does so of the notes. so the likelihood of and the problematic solution are not that ties especially nowadays. i mean however that the option is that is on the butt. and with the consent of hesper law, for the simple fact that the news government has stated loud and clear. and yesterday he confirmed that and the united nation,

the foreign affairs administered that they are glad the to the man to day. and that is one who's on 17. 0 wow. and this could not have happened without that consent of test or not. so the okay, before i wanna bring nicolas nicolas at the end, well, most of my time on this diplomacy, nicholas, are you a tool hurtful about where things stand right now? sadly, i'm not, i mean, you know, as, as, as an american and a lot of time observer and involved in american politics. i think the, the core fact remains that the only power that can change israel's calculations towards the durable cease fire in the war and gaza is the united states. and unfortunately, president biden and his team are unwilling to bring the sort of pressure that would be necessary to get to that cease fire, which would then effectively have a ceasefire 11 on and all of the discussions that sammy just said about this un

security council resolution could then happen negotiation, etc, but it would be within the context of an end of the war in gaza and in the end of the war between israel and has butler is real and 11 on that unfortunately does not look forthcoming before the us presidential elections. and unfortunately, i've very, let's say a barish, if you will, that even after these elections, especially with trump, but even with harris, that we're gonna have to find that kind of pressure to put on the israelis. so without the durable ceasefire in the offing in the weeks and months ahead, i see it very difficult to avert a much higher level of consultation war and unfortunately, disaster for the peoples of the region. i st. you very much indeed for a fascinating and rather depressing conversational guess today, nicholas notes, i me know, the and samuel romani out as there is comprehensive coverage continues with

reporting from our teams in southern lebanon by a root cause. i'm the west bank on full analysis on al jazeera dot com. we want to hear from you to post your comments on our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. alternatively, find us on x, y, we are x h a inside story. i'll be back here very soon for me, for now and all the team, please stay safe and well, bye bye. for now, the, i did get an idea of the french republic because i'm proclaimed but just what is more than friends in a full pot theory, the big picture takes and in depth,

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