the, with the 2 main kind of same thing for unity, for people who are struggling out as a way to meet the palestinians seeking inspiration for striking you in the heart of the american capital. the benefit of street art is a kind of conflict of where he's planned for universal work, succeed organs because it has on out, is the era no refuge for enemies in his fellow strongholds, israel's warning of the foaming of residential, some of the favorite. dozens of people have been killed, including top, come on, this is the group. so what does this mean for his by i'm the region. this is inside story, the color that i am james base and is really explosion is rock southern bay root

crossing another so called red line for his bullet. the killing of senior come on this as well as civilians is a major branch of security for the group, a nation or where the on edge for years. it's foreign minister tells in the emergency meeting of the un security council that nobody is safe with israel diverting focus on forces to the north. is it preparing a ground invasion for what it cools? a 2nd phase of the war on cause of how much will blow is a list to his bowler, and is the region already we'll, we'll put those questions to our guest shortly along with many of us. but 1st, this report from image and came by 3 major attacks 11 on in full days. i had the latest, an asteroid in a densely populated sub, up inside february, getting over a 1000 people. one was a bringing i can. one of the most senior come on those in has been as a lead rod. one forces that came off the dozens of people were killed. i'm

thousands injured when pages and then we'll p tool keys exploded across 11 on tuesday and wednesday talk each of the attacks, members of hezbollah, but members of the public will say victims including children. uh, but i me, isn't this terrorism when you talk of the whole population and they cities, markets and homes while they change the daily life, while they're not sufficing on the front. a, we seeking today the, and relation of the lebanese peoples has its collective punishment. since the stalls of israel's war on cause, the last type of has been around his lunch book. attacks into milton is around an exchange fire with his ready forces across 11 on the southern buddha declaring its support for him ass palestinians in the strip in the special appearance of a security council. the lebanese for administer reminded the un during the posterior conflict is ralph has threatened to send level back to the stone age. the un declared this week's tax using communication devices and 11 on

a violation of international law. carry died without regard for its civilian population. international men to turn nor prohibits the use of booby trapped devices in the form of a parent. the homeless, portable optics, which was specifically designed and constructed to contain exclusive material. it is a war crime to commit to violence. intended to spread tara among civilian israel, has admitted carrying out the striking they read, and it's continued to make threats. if he's about those north retreats from our border and back to the north, a very tiny river food, the pro magic efforts, if there will be left with no choice, but to use any means within our rights to defend our citizens. israel's army has moved troops to its northern border with lebanon, and we'll come onto the cooling, the 2nd phase of the war on garza. the latest attacks are

a major blow to hezbollah, unexposed weaknesses in its security for office. the groups lead to have some natural i'll pull mr. bench and rockets, floods from southern lebanon since stopped the north of his ro, followed by israel will se sending rockets across the border. the people across the 11 own living in fear of what might come next. while the un spokesperson said the region is on the brink of catastrophe, image and kimber out 0 for inside story. well, let's discuss a little bit further with today's guess on inside story. in athens, we have nicholas know he's editor in chief of beirut based middle east, while adult calm and by route semi nada, director of the vent institute for strategic affairs and in london, samuel romani associates fellow at the royal united services institute, middle east program. thank you all 3 of you for joining us today on inside story.

i'd like to go to you 1st me because you of the in pay routes. we know the trauma, lebanese people have suffered in recent years, economic collapse that port explosion and 2020 the killed, more than 200 people. tell me what the atmosphere is that this week off to all of these events. how would people co pay, i mean, associated is that also deep anxiety and, and fear. because as you mentioned about them instead of going through an unprecedented economic and financial crisis that even use found has those 98 percent of its value. this is on one side and on the other side, i mean that even these people have still in the flash memory that they use the boat to bloss to trash it the and, and have a dot to entry it. well, that's why i said that he's not the prostate has student have in mind that 2006 war

and it's the best, the thing impact on that even he's infrastructure on the but news economy. so they don't want to go through with this kind of a tragedy again. so the moment is the moment of feed, it's a moment of anxiety especially that that things are going through an escalation a truck. it's through the tree or not it to a full blown war, but treat all on the very edge of it. so i said something on something. when i studied many of the people, of course, do not have the money or the means to leave lebanon. but people, you speak to all that people now thinking it's time, maybe if they have a visa to get out of the country. definitely, especially among good. i use the only thing that they want is to, uh, look for to, for the new horizon for the security 1st. and what we have been witnessing recent

data to this. so that was not only among the they use, but even the people of 3rd age because they are looking for data on security that you lost their savings in the banks and now they are about to, to last to their home. so one small samuel, i'm get, let's get your view one. how serious is this moment in your judgment? how close are we to a full blown regional war? well, i think that over the past year has the line, israel have operated basically under a set of underwritten ground rules. eventually that was retaliated for cat across the border, but refrained from any hiding mass of installation that would lead to repeat what we saw in 1982 or 2006 and very visuals and x rays in washington. what was the due over the past several months, they were fairly confident to that, that as well would remain intact. but down over the past week or so, i think that we have seen now i hate and risk of escalation,

of course is still possible that israel, that strikes on that as a lot of targets, which have been paired with the tax on syria taking all these young people 2 weeks ago and he had gone because he has blind arise just over the past several hours. you write a proxy melisha and the threats to retaliate against the hyper sonic dissolves drank from yeah. good. yeah. be just needed to turn around as prophecies for further escalation, binding to the risk of an accident. the war is rising highly because it has to be a response in a more forceful way then digital anticipates than israel could see those which hasn't bell a for a bigger conflict. so i think that both sides have been trying to keep this in jet . but the risk of a misperception or an accident or an unintentionally largest wage that one sided document we were fortunate. the route is very, very high right now. nicholas, let me ask you to look back on the week's events. so we've had problems hidden in pages. bomb sitting in walkie talkies and then a major bombing in the southern suburbs. how do you assess the damage to his ball

up from those various events that we've seen in recent days? well, i think the secretary general has well enough for all the sets and it's, it's been said by a number of their allies and partisans. unless this is probably collectively the, the hardest hit that has bothers had militarily, perhaps, ever since its founding decades ago. so certainly the strike yesterday, the largest concentration of key leaders, and these are really generational leaders, founders of the organization, um uh, altogether in one strike, a is unprecedented and is a very heavy blow for the organization. but i think in contrast to what your guest just said, if we look at it collectively over these days, i don't think that one can say reasonably, but he's really is trying to keep things in check. it's obvious that they are going for

a much more heightened set of military strikes on has bella and on living on much more widely than the previous. let's say 10 to 11 months. they view, i think, an opportunity where hezbollah clearly does not want to go towards open war at this point. so these really is just feel that because as well as counter strikes and them have had very limited import that this is an opportune moment to try and as widely as possible. uh, push test butler militarily with various strikes including the, you know, huge mass casualty attacks like we've seen with the water tucker to what kentucky attacks and the pedro attacks. so i think that actually the israelis look as if they are and they will continue to significantly raise the bar of their strikes. and i think, but unfortunately we're not in an accidental war sort of scenario here. we're on

a very clear path or it's an open war. and let's be clear that the major reason, although there are lot, many historical factors and structural factors. but the primary most immediate reason is the failure to get a durable cease fire in gaza. and in the war over gaza and that, that is the number one thing that is leading us to words. what will not be an accident, but very much a sort of clear pathway, a slippery slope which you want, but a clear pathway. none the less towards a much wider war and one that will be immensely destructive for 11 on and also immensely disruptive for israel as well. sammy, the attacks we've seen this week. clearly his bolos communications are going to be damaged by this. it's come on this. some have died so it's come on to its force is going to be damaged. we just put this all in perspective because this is a very large organization with a vast us know of weaponry and drones and missiles and

a very large number of well trained fighters. yeah, that's true. i mean, the rule that they have so taking is, is substantiate. and one thing to raise the question whether has been law is to have the capability to keep on the surface condition, try and whether it's task that capabilities to sustain it for real. no. it's through dot the has bought it upside to clearly that they don't want to. it would that they aren't ready to stop the that back to uh was a ceasefire in gossip and the on pretty bad for it. so after the event of the for last day, one raises the question about the there are readiness for this. uh, uh, this, uh, this war. and the movie has been, uh, i know something about him cents as

a noticed uh, what is it good supremacy of uh is it i have so and this will end, particularly at the top of the 2023. 2 is different from that of, uh, 2006. it's, uh, it's highly, uh, technological and then here you have a, i don't know to you versus the technology. and it's clear that those who have a, that the commodities supremacy got today or the upper hand. and, and this event shows how much committed to the system of has by law is exposed, is one level and has been infiltrated by a. is it a secret to a surfaces on the, on despite this? i mean, that's what all yesterday, a vote to continue that back to, to the link what the war p is watching, that this word of support on what's happening and go some,

but to keeping in mind that tweet or not anymore in this deep for a dipole floor we are into a dialect tool. it's to got it did not cross that the final line too. so the country into a for a brewing brownwood, but we are uh, getting good there and okay, i got let, let, let me just focus on those that have died in terms of the, his boss come on struck shot because to come on this one was a ahmed while be but perhaps the most significant of those that with died abraham keel was one of his boldest, most senior military leaders and a member of the jihad council. its highest military body. he was wanting to them the u. s. in connection with his role in the 1983 bombings and by roots of the us embassy, the killed 63 people, and the us marine corps barracks and which 241 american personnel died, kills assassination is the 2nd of leading his bottom of that tree for getting them

being taken off the battlefield through assassination. by the way, it's not just these figures in the last few days and weeks that have been assassinated. there was a long litany of hezbollah key foundational. the founding figures that have been taken off the battlefield, most notably my move me a in 2008 in a, in an assassination in damascus. but there been many others, but the dean and many others, some of the eas, it's etc. so what you have now is you have a, you know, 45 year old or 40 year old organization that has been through a tremendous amount of military and political conflicts. and what you're seeing is really the, the kind of founding membership, the founding leaders, a significant amount it seems, have been assassinated and taken off the battlefield. now we can say that on the one hand and it's very hard to assess again from the outside. but on the other hand, i would disagree with sammy respectfully, that you know,

these kinds of attacks of the last few days and of the last few weeks. and even of the, the kind of assessing the sions of sounding members kind of radically destabilizes or kind of leads has below much towards collapse. i think this is an organization, that's why the knowledge to be extremely deep and organizationally very strong. and they have over the last 10 years, especially since their involvement in the serial war and the consultation with isis and other soon as yacht as groups. they have had a significant amount of battle field training of new members coming through the ranks. and this is a very dynamic organization, as i think even its enemies will acknowledge. so yeah. okay, so now if i can bring in samuel abraham f keel who we've been talking about had a us arrest warrant of facing him. they, they were going to pay if he had been captured up to $7000000.00 us dollars. what do you think this? what will have this happened? the fact to the fact that he was killed on the us response to all of this,

the library and the count certainly wasn't enemy number one for the american. since i've, i've been out there wasn't just for the 19 easy bombings and be real. it was also that he killed was allegedly lead to the g. you americans and germans is captive during the $98.00. and so this is obviously something that the americans would probably cheer on. i mean, it's unclear exactly how, how people, actually, it was within the organization. we know that he was in tennessee. we don't, us goes to mooney. we'd have heard some reports of the been involved in that logistics. that is the person who's ever really given an interview in the shadowy figure hasn't really had much of a public role flash shooting or the other commander wins. that's native, for example, is more involved in the procurement is to get what somebody for angela. so nat geo was probably less involved in that. so i think of the us, i probably see this obviously some kind of belated revenge and probably view with the side really. but they'll probably be looking at the bigger picture here. i think the americans have a pretty consistent in a dialogue with the as early as,

as they don't necessarily want an outbreak of a much larger one level not personally intended with the upcoming elections. okay, sammy, when we looked at these latest attacks this week that been large civilian death told involved and the earlier on nicholas mentioned the targeting of a map book, nia, in 2008. well, that was a targeted assassination. he was the only one who died and yet so many innocent civilians have been killed this week. do you think israel is less concerned about international outrage and that there was a different measure of ideas? riley's, they kind of write this differently now off to off to the board on johnson. the reason is i hasn't shown any side also concern when it comes to the city and conduct the damage and we have seen a dot to and in gospel. so why live on the would be the different and we have

seen all of the database going on joining the session on the international justice court and to and the, the how, how is it that you have been accused not to a day and the action to secure a disobedience at want doing its operation. and it's true dot to what happened for the last 4 days. come at the detriment of disobedient. this is why a lot of show, as was of that have been useful foundation even though they this day from government to the dis, equity was, has by law on it's funny. see on the fact that he's keeping the arms beside different. he's a army, a few excited, so the dyed t deep. so the key was the that it's especially the door see videos that

paid the price off for this war. and consider that is that i, the doctor has a blue to ok, but on a well, i think it's worth now looking at what israel says it's doing. and last monday, these really cabinet changed. explore objectives. go to the war in golf. so not only to free these riley captives and defeat a mouse bought to a residence, the newest, to safely return to their homes. that seems to be nicholas a new objective cam. this subjective be achieved without israel going in on the ground, the ground defensive and you'll view well ground. defensive is one thing, but old. so i think the more immediate calculation is kind of wider devastation of hezbollah targets and lebanese targets as well. and i think that that's what we're more likely to see, i think is real recognizes, as you know, us a named officials have and is really

a name. the officials have in the past few weeks that he ground operation looks terrible for the israelis. um, it does not look like a very good a prospect for them. um that, that said, you know, the, the, the core issue i think is that has bola enough for all of this in no uncertain terms the other day has. butler is very unlikely to change gates, policy of military pressure linked to a durable ceasefire and gaza. they are very unlikely to change that policy under attack. and indeed, i cannot imagine a scenario where is really kind of being of these strategic and quote unquote targeted attacks that, that somehow puts enough pressure on hezbollah to relent. and does that, you know, citizens have been north and israel can return to their homes. i highly doubt that force. that's why i think it's unfortunately more likely that the as really,

is at some point through a mixture of hubris over the last few days and weeks of the success of their attacks. as well as internal political pressure from northern residents and elsewhere that they have to and they will expand their operations in 11 on such that we reach a point where we are essentially in open warfare between okay, butler 11 on and is room ok. of course, samuel, the, all the factor on and all of this is what iran might do because we still have it wrong. saying that it would set some time ago that it was going to retaliate for the assassination intent wrong. of the mass, the, the is male. on the back on july the 31st once you'll view on how it ron is going to play things right now. well obviously there's been a tremendous amount of outreach coming through from the readings the media towards . what is your life that especially in response to a major attack of the injury that was, will the door see you? i need a bass here inside the ridge. but dad,

he doesn't get really. the roommate clear weather around actually wants a full blown regional war that would probably involve. so i must have old friends at once and through the symmetric guy extracts, right. keep in mind that the is really the running were to engage that kind of conflict. you could probably say these are these carrying out more tax on that he has of line the rock, i guess the key military infrastructure inside syria, where the russians are already redeploying some of their air defense systems, a way to bring them to the really and theater and also potentially inside dinner. so i think that it run definitely show with a lot of solidarity right now with as well. and with deliver these people at the but i think it, it also is heavy. it's beneficial whether it actually wants a football award to be dragged in directly into it. okay, so i mean, i want you to sum up now what you think call a and the chances of diplomatic efforts. the u. s. has an invoice, a most hochstein. he had apply and he was trying to work a plan,

but it seems to be the problem with his plan is his bullet, those stages a said that the warning gauze must stop and nothing yahoo doesn't seem to show any appetite for the other plan. but the us of pushing that deal to try and get a cease fire. and garza definitely, i mean, at the position of most thought these are very, very far apart on one hand. and i'm not sure it has, but wants to keep the rules of engagement as was the bedding on october 6th before october 7. and is that i am is determined to change this. so a question to change this sort of engagement in order to ensure that he turn off for that as it does so also the notes. so the likelihood of and the problematic solution are not that ties especially nowadays. i mean however, that the option is that is on the but and with the consent of hesper law for the simple fact that the news government has stated loud and clear. and yesterday he

confirmed that and they united nation before and after administered that they are glad the to the man to day and that is one who's on 17. 0 wow. and this could not have happened without that consent of test or not. so the okay, before i wanna bring nicolas nicolas at the end, well, most of my time on this diplomacy, nicholas, are you a tool hurtful about where things stand right now? sadly, i'm not, i mean, you know, as, as, as an american and a lot of time observer and involved in american politics. i think the, the core fact remains that the only power that can change israel's calculations towards the durable cease fire in the war and gaza is the united states. and unfortunately, president biden and his team are unwilling to bring the sort of pressure that would be necessary to get to that cease fire, which would then effectively have a ceasefire 11 on and all of the discussions that sammy just said about this un

security council resolution could then happen negotiation, etc, but it would be within the context of coverage continues with reporting from our teams in southern lebanon by root cause. i'm the west bank on full analysis on al jazeera dot com. we want to hear from you to post your comments on our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. alternatively, find us on x, y, we are x h a inside story. i'll be back here very soon for me, for now and all the team, please stay safe and well, bye bye for now. the hey, get an idea

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