one of the most critical elections in this country's history quote, the chose with shape its future from around the world se expired, expired in august. since then, there has been an escalation in military operations against the rebels. the is the beginning of house on the fall line. a game changer is the combination of the massive series of his variety of tasks on his boss, top political and military leadership. how with the do respond and could events in the middle east spin out of control. this is the inside story, the to hello, welcome to the program, out of hush him. i have a bottle of him that has below for more than 3 decades and made it into a military and political force to be reckoned with in the long run in conflict in

the middle east. how sudden the flaws killing in a massive is right at attack in southern southern a bay route is sure to open a new page in the ongoing war, as well as highlight and says he's been bad for options offset announced his death . but with his below respond, and if so, how and how will the latest developments shape the future of the on group and his role in the region? we'd go to all and guess in a moment, 1st, this report from uncontrolled studies, the falls up through a massive attack on levels captain is really military says it's kills a man that has to move into decade and made the announcement in the social media post is really, defense minister you off globbed, praise the military operation, call and get one of the most important, talked at strikes since the funding of the state of as well. so i'd be to add more

. the state of israel has eliminated house on this right to the lead of has belong . he was the mood of, of thousands of his writings. i'm phone citizens to our enemies. i say we are strong and determined to our partners. i would say i will, is your role and to the people let and then i say i was not with you. it's time for change is rugs, chief of style less than in general host. we have a b says the strikes some be root loan plan. i'm very excited to did at the right time, and he's one of more attacks because it also phone guys. okay, this is not the end of the toolbox. it should be very clear. there are more tools, we can use the head. the message is a simple one. whoever threatens the citizens of the state of israel. we will know how to get there in the north, in the south, even in the most distant play. he says, he's really medically says it's estimated most senior hezbollah need is getting weeks of escalating violence 11 on the death of nest for law,

who made his beloved regional force seen as a major blow to be given back through his supporters. a morning his depth, i don't know how some of the for like if they kill her son this around a 1000 house on this, all those will come at the end. it is a matter of principles on the palestinians won't give up the land. so i don't think has on this at all is assassination will impact because whether in lebanon or palestine, the swats and the route with a heavy is in a new one year conflict with hesper law. and believe to have been carried out using ground, penetrating munitions, known as bunker bus to bones. these would use several apartment blocks in a southern baby to the, to drop of the tax game sharply off to is where the problem. mister benjamin netanyahu made a defined speech at the united nations general assembly is or not what he told will lead us. that'd be know that top and the attacks on hezbollah in lebanon, and come off some cause, as long as his bottle chooses the path of war. israel has no choice,

and this one has every right to remove this threat and return our citizens to go home safely. and that's exactly what we're doing in a speech by quoted by separately to pronounce his days to walk out. nothing. yeah. who also threatened even and called on the un security council to stop the run from getting you to weapons. i have a message for the tyrants up there on. if you would strike us, we will strike you. there is no place any wrong that the long arm of israel cannot reach. and that's true of the entire abilities. as well, has found 11 on since monday with a tax that has killed hundreds of people and into a thousands. but the 2 sides have traded near daily swipe since last october, after israel began, is for casa. that's getting more than 41 thompson palestinians,

as well, continues its attacks on lebanon and gaza. many em, let's say, conflict has already become reasonable and the consumption ease entre 0 for inside story. let's bring it on gas from us and nicholas no. just saying cheerful. meat is why a. com, based in beta from san francisco, stevens and his professor of politics and found it. you want me to eastern studies of the university of san francisco from tallahassee. if you love a com, this was the hottest newspaper and all thought of the book, the punishment of gaza. thank you for joining us. nicholas. we talking about a tony point in the middle east, a live in an in particular off to the clinical house on the fall. well, this word turning point has been used repeatedly over the last to almost 12 months . certainly since october 7th, since october 8th,

when has violated became committed to being a part of this, this conflict. i think this is probably the most significant points that we could say represents very likelihood or high likelihood of a major escalation that we've seen in the last 11 and a half 12 months. so to your question, yes, this is a significant blow to hezbollah. and he accumulated blows of the last 8 weeks, had been particularly painful for the group. the hardest strikes it's ever endured since it was founded in the wake of these railey invasion of 1982. and they are undoubtedly right now struggling to try to reconvene reorganize and assert their next steps, including with their ally, iran and other allies around the middle east. and this is,

i think what we're waiting for. i think there's a high likelihood that hezbollah is willing, capable, and. busy and i asked me to respond to the events of the last 24 hours in a very strong way. and i think that unfortunately, that means we're in a likely scenario of in the even worse level of the affair, an escalation than we've even seen over the last, almost 12 months since october, 7th, the steven, by killing someone widely perceived to be replace civil in the chain of command of his by law, whether it's riley's hoping to do so for a particular reason, which is basically to ensure that as well as military and political capabilities would be voted for many, many years to come. well, obviously the goal is to try to, we can, has below, but as boulevard is a broad base movement. in fact, the a merged out of the, of, of lebanese politics because the traditional parties,

even the, even a mall or traditional sheer party. where the cons a top down and lead to a driven a sectarian politics. we've seen since loved ones founding in this is a populous movement that seem to get a lot of support even among a loving, easy to not support their frankly, rather reactionary of, of the political and theological orientation. and so they are, there is much more to, to hezbollah then simply as well, and some of the other leaders. but the fact is that he was very important. i mean, you've been at home for 32 years and even target for, for many years. thanks, a lot of people forget that the united states tried to assassinate a natural light uh back in 1984 with a, a bomb placed with a mouse good, kill over 78 civilians. and those are all escaped on harm. so,

and he has to create a lot of entities elsewhere and within with including within lebanon, and it's presumably with some mental tracing and loving to use that these relays were able to track him down. so again, here he's got a lot of enemies. you survived a miraculously and it's amazing you survive as long as he has. but i, i still believe that there's going to be enough of it as well. are both in terms of their, of the military capabilities, but also the, their, their popular support a to the course by the uranium support that will keep the building be continued to be a formidable force for them to see what the future gets in was october. the 7th, the main reason why the these writers decided to change the political and military cause because it's because in the past they were very cautious about targeting senior member of his beloved particular house on the ceiling, a backlash today. yesterday, they decided to kill him. what has changed the type of symbol?

no. verizon rides the say the shot, but they are so so nice. it's already one lead though, but these but uh many years ago and say, i'm not sure there was so cautious. but august 8th is riley's, and the lead us in the doctor, the 7 over is or has the right do whatever tools it will show you the eclipse suite . c thing does that, does that was the most uh, dressing table on gas out, the warranty guys up ever since it exists is what it was never so aggressive in guys that i can pause in the last place. months this is because is there a fee? is this the right and the get the benefits for those. so after the 7th of october, in general, is where it is believe that the severance of october, it allows them to do whatever they want is for the sedation afraid estrada.

that's remember, that is what i never stopped the assess the 19th or month this. indeed, the stuff need this, and by the way, never got got any results. okay, nicholas, you said that you think the structure is almost intact, that the, the backlash is just a matter of time. but when you look at the level of intelligence penetration over the last few weeks, as far as the law is concerned, this lives many to ask the question whether hezbollah will ever be the same again? you know, i, i certainly don't think that you know, the top leadership of hezbollah as an intact. obviously they are not. these rarely so have done an incredible job of, of, of, of eliminating a wide number of figures, including, of course, most notably has almost all of this is a big question that is very much open right now. and it is very hard for any of us

to pronounce with open source data. the extent to which is rarely strikes over the past few weeks. and indeed, the past 11 months have actually materially hurt, has butler's communication networks, their organizational capacity, and also their military capabilities. that is a very much an open question. i am, however, saying that my believe having looked at this group for 20 years is that all. busy the decapitation of key leaders is a huge below. this is an organization that has excelled and creating a deep and survivable set of, of units and organizational structure. they have been through enormous conflicts and wars, most notably in syria and elsewhere with isis, etc. over the past 15 years and it has developed capabilities and an organization that is extensive and that is deep. it is very tough for any of us to say to the

degree that that has been stymied or penetrated or reduced. i think that we'll see in the coming hours in days the extent to which the israelis have or have not degraded, has bothers military capabilities. today, for example, there are numerous rockets strikes on is really including farther and deeper into israel. i suspect, and i think it's likely that we're going to see the continuation of hezbollah as capabilities and that they will, the leaders that are now taking over. and the 2nd generational leaders that are coming into place that they are very much going to continue. how sudden us, what are those original policy which was no disengagement with israel until there is a durable ceasefire in gaza? and i think that that's what they are going to continue on to do. and that's why i think, you know, gideon levy can speak to this more than i can. but given the unlikelihood of

a ceasefire in gaza under this is really leadership, i think that we are set for far worse conflict. steven, i would like you to see more escalation on the reason or do you think that the opinions will try to do the best to push for destination to try to contain the impact of what is happening in 11. and i'm afraid i have to agree with the previous so i guess that indeed this click there will indeed be some escalation . i mean, as far as how back of but they have a huge arsenal so far beyond work from us or has their, their relations with around our group, or far closer or more support they. we saw it happen in 2006 where they were able to strike just about anywhere. and his room was many hundreds of both military and civilian casualties. and they've held back so far to and least these things. now you've, you've, you've heard how israel, of course, has the iron,

don't much better anti missile capabilities, but they can chew down individual rockets in the symbols. but it is despite this much of quantity to us inspired system, it cannot survive as for metallic origin. it was left has the largest capable of, i mean, i think they held back in part because they didn't want israel to the to inflect even more deb station on lebanon. but fairly, israel's be quite willing to do that anyway. so i am afraid just a matter of time before we do 300 jump or rather dramatic escalation. it gives you in one of the top iranian officials. ibrahim, as easy, disappeared, the leader of the supreme national security council said that he's why the quote has opened the case of all how against itself. but now when you look at why the iranian stand, if they decide not to at that from could just further exacerbate the frustration

among many of their own people and the supporters of hezbollah. but if they decide to react, what does he's going to leave the region? it is right in particular, if they're going to create an in cruise, but now has the capabilities been balls that guess the just the mention. and we are facing horrible things because they need drugs into region or more. was very easy mates. was a very loose names, drugs are big, national, communicable stories, both the both stages means the black box also it is read and i'm not sure that is where can we be spending this way is more ridge drive in terms so big thing, see the cost of the center to the heart of the country and a is there any is up to are one quite complicated. you. busy the pat, quiet, it's exhaustive. and above board, people know where are we, i mean,

what does the end game? i mean we, i'm just asking, why did we start to the event, the end game. but other people supposed to those was in the window a certain stage where they would start to pay a person. the price never start to austin. so what for what was your because nobody can name those 2 walsh where unpreventable because they're being prevented or do you use the term to print. busy them because bose does uh and, and they will say, she's fine. does that? well jeannette is still there. but is there a say no. okay, nicholas, one of the key fig goes likely to succeed has on this level is hash him sophia dean . he's his cousin. he how strong ties with the iranians. what do you think would be

the biggest challenge facing him in the near future? is it reorganizing the structure of the group or trying to build bridges with a different politic infections in lebanon, where the general consensus that is, people don't want to see more wars and conflicts in the region as well. it's unclear whether or not he will succeed to the secretary general shape. i'd also caution all viewers and all of us to be extremely cautious about any biographical details. and suppose the readings into various figures were in the middle of a war. and there's also a media more going on long side, and then there has been for quite some time. that being said, i think the 1st order of business for any new secretary general will not be about the political machinations of domestic lebanese politics. they are on the costs of and i would argue at the beginning of a wide open war that food and now looks much more likely to proceed to a sterile,

more violent regional war. in some ways this regional war has already happened many months ago, but it looks set to accelerate dramatically. so i think the 1st order of business is there will be a war time secretary general of heads above. they are at war and they have entered an open war period. it looks like which is fundamentally different from the periods that preceded it. warehouse butler has to worry about the different political constituencies and 11 on its own supportive constituencies in middle use, its enemies 11 on its enemies in the near abroad and internationally. i think that right now they are in immediate war time mode and that is where we are going. unfortunately, stevens, he always before the beginning of a has on the law is right. departments have benjamin nothing. yeah. who was of united nations living a speech? well, he was body defiant, following to climb down on how about us and his butler was he doing this on purpose

knowing that the americans were going to be busy with the elections of that for his he seized the opportunity for him to continue to finish what how's posit, he bought the item ministration was concerned about the elections. they would of the finally pressure israel to stop the war on gaza, which would stop the war and love it. and because the support for these boys are very unpopular in the united states, many people are blaming as of the bite and administration and vice president harris, the by extension. and there are many democratic leading voters, the young people, progressive era of americans, muslims who are starting to not vote or vote 3rd party, rather than the of the for a candidate whom they associate with genocide. who mean there's some hand said of vice president harris as president would be tougher on his role than bite and has a no indeed we've seen previous presidents, reagan there and, and, and stopped

a israel from judge continue. it's offensive, and they root a back in the 1982 a bomb a twice a forest is real to us suspended a tax on gaza president do have that power button has refused to do it. and so that's gotten a lot of anger and, and i think nothing. yeah. who's speech is disingenuous as it was on so many levels was largely towards an american audience. and to i did to basically try to adjust, defy this a continued war and to less than the, the, the pressure that the binding ministration congress is. this is, is a beginning to year, you know, from key constituencies in the united states. good in the, on the politically they have nothing in particular on the army on the same page about how to move next i would likely to see

a ground invasion that help on the same page. and they were even looked on the same page before the separation but somehow it. 1 the owner is fine, the. ready same page of the school concrete alterations. i've seen none of them, neither the army go or the 10 year old on want to put an end to the war now. and i'm afraid that both would support the ground, the racial which might be the next challenge, the next very dangerous challenge in the the better pringle is more because you chris, but we really launch real good so that when they come in today's, in their meaningful quantity or is land is what we say we have to go in. there will be a brochure. all the decision makers go in and then we face the ground information.

and then again, it's a new game because they swear to really get complicated in advance ebony almost inevitably. because once the idea of wouldn't be inside level known as the boys many times before, there would be quite an advantage to his but not bosses. oh no the the, the girl. busy oh, well, it was quite well equipped with me, but it was live, but it's much more than a commercial business. i knew that one year and in guess i and they didn't that you've anything being never known, it would be much more complicated. so i think some of those, the already for drought declaration and also very big ok. nicholas. there are people who say now in lebanon, that 2000, not what is happening now is totally different to what happened in 2006 and for hezbollah to be able to move forward and reinventing themselves in the upcoming days, weeks or months. it has to understand the needs to be

a political consensus which never existed over the last 20 years or 25 years 11. and do you think they would be winning this time to offer some concessions to that key to challenge those 11? this question is very difficult to unpack because of the uncertainty of this next period if, as gideon levy said, it's possible that the idea of the political leadership on the same page and that there may be a ground invasion in the coming period. this is fundamentally different. this is a question of occupation invasion, and i think that they're the whole calculus of different lebanese political parties shifts the relationship with has butler shifts. there is some concern or some hope in some quarters that some lebanese sides may find common cause with the israelis. all of this is, is real speculation, but it's all up for

a consideration because there are so many unknowns in this next period. the one thing that seems certain though is that things will get markedly worse. lebanese internal politics will probably get markedly worse, you know, fractures more dangerous. and the situation of civilians in 11. 0 certainly. but also likely with an israel is also going to materially worse. and so i, you know, i, i just, i don't really see how has, by that can even reasonably calculate next steps domestically to try to shore up x, y, and z. i think again, we are at a major turning point, perhaps the, the greatest one in the last 11 and a half months. and that these days and weeks could bring many scenarios. but most of them are quite all. stephen, us defense that goes the lloyd austin's will invest an old alt will between the

bodies hezbollah and these right. it would be devastating for both lebanon. and is by and do you think that americans didn't have any sort of been difficult leverage? the can pull to try to put a to contain the situation from the spinning out of control. you have considerable leverage that they have chosen not, not to do it. is like most mentioned about the reagan and obama, have been able to, to pressure, were able to pressure his role to stop it. so wars in the past, but the biden, against the, the desires of the secretary defense austin of c. i directed, burns and, and reportedly vice president harrison as well as, as a re, somehow believe that this is kind of a persuasion. it would be enough to curb the curb that's in yahoo. and it's very me, at least these try usually saying they should not to continue back in 2006. it was the bush administration that go to israel on against the better judgment of the

they are. i general staff a to launch this round and age and then it's sending that israel's even thinking about this given what happened in 2006, the very own when a grand condition. uh huh. okay. roundly criticized the uh, the is rarely authorities for, for such a, such a full a show operation. i mean, anybody's been to southern lebanon design allows just the turbine itself is very, very challenging for any kind of offensive military operation like that. and okay. yeah, it has the law as all these, all these tunnels and, and, and, and, and, and elaborate defensive systems. i mean, it would be a, it would, it would be a, a lot of this really, so i would, would die. i mean 2006 was as was the 1st error for us to have a one to one ratio in terms of military casualties. even though of course, the civilian categories on the left need was much bigger. was it a house that either the good you love a stevenson is on nicholas now i really appreciate your inside looking forward to talking to you in the near future. thank you

a whole lot so you can see the program again, any time by visiting our website. i just, you know, dot com for further discussion to solve a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside slot. or you can also join the conversation on x, i'll hand it is at a j inside study. for me hush, i'm on the bottom. the entire team here in doha bye. for now the it's on disputed. the 72 muslims were massacred in the village of indiana. india, in 1987 witnesses say the perpetrators or a model of the locals along side the state governments provincial. i'm constabulary personnel over 30 years later in the district court acquitted the accused to date. no one has been as accountable. people in power asks why the victims continue to be denied justice india is forgotten, must occur on the jersey to me since its inception. in 1961,

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the . ready the hello, i'm sorry, i'm demise the welcome to the news. our live from doha. coming off in the next 60 minutes. a sudden us for our lives, but largely to for the teacher. he is, is confirmed to have been killed in a massive as rainy as strike on south bay roots. meanwhile, israel continues to bomb the lebanese capital, allowing to keep targeting has been lock. kalonde is also coming out this out.