nice when we came to clean up new orleans more than 1200 poor black people lost their life. not a single rich american lost in like the real cost of the climate emergency. the most vulnerable of people who are suffering are poor people. but even rich people are going to be affected by the impacts of climate shift dying us off to the hurricane. on out you 0 is the beginning of how something like a game changer is the combination of the massive series of his riley attacks on his boss, top political and military leadership. how with the do respond and could events in the middle east spin out of control. this is the inside story, the

to hello, welcome to the program, out of hush him. i have a bottle. he let, has below for more than 3 decades, and made it into a military and political force to be reckoned with in the long run in conflict in the middle east. how sudden the flaws killing in a mazda of his right ad attack in southern southern a bay route is sure to open a new page in the ongoing war, as well as highlight and says he's been bad for options offset announced his death . but with his below respond, and if so, how, and how will the latest developments shape the future of the on group and his role in the region? we'd go to all and guess in a moment, 1st, this report from castillo teddy, the falls up through a massive attack on levels captain is really middle 3 says it's killed. the man who led has to move into decade and made the announcement in the social media

post is really defense minister you off globbed price, the military operation, calling to get one of the most important, talked at strikes since the funding of the state of as well so i'd be to explore the state of israel has eliminated house on the straw that the leader of has belong . he was the mid of, of thousands of israelis. i'm phone citizens to our enemies. i say we are strong and determined to part in this. i would say i will, is your role and to the people let and then i say i was not with you. it's time for change is rugs, chief of style less than in general host. we have a b says the strike some bedroom loan plan and boot situated at the right time. and he's one of more attacks because it also for the guys, okay, this is not the end of the toolbox. it should be very clear. there are more tools, we can use the head, the message is a simple one. whoever threatens the citizens of the state of israel. we will know how to get there in the north, in the south, even in the most distant. he says he's really medically says it's animated. most

senior hezbollah need is getting weeks of escalating violence and 11 on the death of natural law who made his beloved regional force seen as a major blow to the wrong back from his supporters. a morning his steps or you know how some of the for like if they kill her son this what all a 1000 house on this, all those will come at the end. it is a matter of principles on the palestinians won't give up the land. so i don't think has on this at all as assassination with impact because whether in lebanon or palestine. the swats and b route with a heavy is in a new one year conflict with hesper law. and believe to have been carried out using ground, penetrating munitions, known as bunker bus to bones. these would use several apartment blocks in a southern baby to the developer of the tax game. shortly after his where the problem, mister benjamin netanyahu made a defined speech at the united nations general assembly. he told the leaders,

that'd be new laptop and the attacks on hezbollah in lebanon. and hum awesome gaza, as long as his bottle chooses the path of war. israel has no choice, and this one has every right to remove this threat and return our citizens to their home safely. and that's exactly what we're doing in a speech by quoted by separately depend, that's the stage to walk out. nothing. yeah, we also threatened yvonne and called on the un security council to stop the run from getting you to weapons. i have a message for the tire. and so if the wrong, if you strike us or we will flag you, there is no place any wrong that the long arm of israel cannot reach. and that's true of the entire abilities as well, has bound 11 on since monday with attacks that have killed hundreds of people and into a thousands. but the 2 sides have treated new daily's twice since last october of

to israel began. is for casa. that's getting more than 41 thompson palestinians as well, continues its attacks on lebanon and garza many m. let's say. conflict has already become reasonable. and the consumption eve on to 0 for inside story. let's bring it on gas from us and nicholas. no. just saying cheerful meat is why a. com based in beta from san francisco, stevens and his professor of politics and found it you want me to eastern studies of university of san francisco from tel aviv gives you a love a com. this was the hottest newspaper and all thought of the book, the punishment of gaza. thank you for joining us. nicholas. we talking about a turning point in the middle east live in an in particular off to the clinical house on the fall. well this word turning point has been used repeatedly over the

last to almost 12 months. certainly since october 7th, since october 8th, when has violated became committed to being a part of this, this conflict. i think this is probably the most significant points that we could say represents very likelihood or high likelihood of a major escalation that we've seen in the last 11 and a half 12 months. so to your question, yes, this is a significant blow to hezbollah. he accumulated blows of the last 8 weeks had been particularly painful for the group. the hardest strikes it's ever endured since it was founded in the wake of these rarely invasion of 1982. and they are undoubtedly right now struggling to try to reconvene reorganize and

assert their next steps, including with their ally, iran and other allies around the middle east. and this is, i think what we're waiting for. i think there's a high likelihood that hezbollah is willing, capable and organized me to respond to the events of the last 24 hours in a very strong way. and i think that unfortunately, that means we're in a likely scenario of an even worse level of warfare. and escalation, than we've even seen over the last, almost 12 months since october, 7th, the steven by kenning, someone widely perceived to be replace civil in the chain of command of his by law . well, the is riley is hoping to do so for a particular reason, which is basically to ensure that as well as military and political capabilities would be voted for many, many years to come. but obviously the goal is to try to weaken hezbollah,

but as blah is a broad base movement. in fact, the a merged out of the, of love to use politics because the traditional parties, even the, even a mall, the traditional sheer party. where the cons a top down and lead to a driven a secretary in politics. we've seen since the 11th founding. and this is a populous movement that seem to get a lot of support, even among a loving, easy to not support their frankly, rather reactionary of, of the political and theological orientation. and so they are, there is much more to, to hezbollah then simply as well. and some of the other leaders, but the fact is that he was very important. i mean, you've been at home for 32 years and even target for, for many years. thanks. a lot of people forget that the united states tried to

assassinate a natural lot. uh, back in 1984 with a, a palm place of them. oscar kill over $78.00 civilians and, and us are all a states on harm. so he has to create a lot of entities elsewhere and within with including within lebanon. and it's presumably with some mental trace in 1180, is that these relays were able to track him down. so again, here he's got a lot of enemies you survived or miraculously, or most amazing you survive as long as he has. but i, i still believe that there's going to be enough of it as well are both in terms of their, of the military capabilities, but also the, their, their popular support aided, of course, by the uranium support that will keep the building be continued to be a formidable force for them to see what the future gets in was october, the 7th. the main reason why the these writers decided to change the political and military cause. because it's because in the past they were very cautious about

targeting senior member of his beloved particular house on the ceiling, a backlash today. yesterday, they decided to kill him. what has changed the type of symbol? no. verizon rides the say the shot. but they, i sense a 93. the one lead though for these but not many years ago and say, i'm not sure there was so cautious. but august 8th is riley's and the lead us in the doctor. the 7 over is or has the right to do with every, towards your book. so we think the eclipse, sweet. see thing does the guys that was both a dressing table. one guys are the one guys up ever since is where it exists is what it was never so aggressive in guys that actually pause in the last place. months, this is because is there a fee?

is this the right and the government benefits for those? so after the 7th of october, in january is where it is believe that the severance of october, it allows them to do whatever they want is for the sedation afraid estrada. that's remember, that is what i never spoke to assess the 19th or month this. indeed, this book me this and by the way, never got any results. ok, nicholas, you said that you think the structure is almost intact. um that the, the backlash is just a matter of time. but when you look at the level of intelligence penetration over the last few weeks, as far as has by law is concerned, this lives many to ask the question whether hezbollah will ever be the same again? you know, i, i certainly don't think that you know, the top leadership of hezbollah has and attacked. obviously they are not, these relatives have done an incredible job of, of, of, of eliminating

a wide number of figures, including, of course, most notably has found us at all low. this is a big question. that is very much open right now, and it is very hard for any of us to pronounce with open source data. the extent to which is rarely strikes over the past few weeks. and indeed the past 11 months have actually materially hurt. has the bellows communication networks, their organizational capacity, and also their military capabilities. that is a very much an open question. i am however, saying that my believe having looked at this group for 20 years is that although the decapitation of key leaders is a huge below, this is an organization that has excelled and creating a deep and survivable set of, of units and organizational structure. they have been through enormous conflicts and wars, most notably in syria and elsewhere with isis, etc,

over the past 15 years. and it has developed capabilities and an organization that is extensive and that is deep. it is very tough for any of us to say to the degree that that has been stymied or penetrated or reduced. i think that we'll see in the coming hours in days the extent to which the israelis have or have not degraded, has brothers military capabilities. today for example, there are numerous rockets strikes on is really including farther and deeper into israel. i suspect. and i think it's likely that we're going to see the continuation of hezbollah as capabilities. and that they will, the leaders that are now taking over. and the 2nd generational leaders that are coming into place that they are very much going to continue how sudden us are all those original policy, which was no disengagement with israel until there is a durable ceasefire in gaza. and i think that that's what they are going to

continue on to do, and that's why i think, you know, getting levy can speak to this more than i can. but given the unlikelihood of a ceasefire in gaza under this is really leadership, i think that we are set for far worse conflict. steven, i would like you to see more escalation on the reason or do you think that the opinions will try to do the best to push for the escalation to try to contain the impact of what is happening in 11. and i'm afraid i have to agree with the previous so i guess that indeed this group there will indeed be some escalation . i mean, as well as how back of but they have a huge arsenal so far beyond welcome us or has their, their relations with around or are far closer or more support they. we saw it happen in 2006 where they were able to strike just about anywhere. and his room was

many hundreds of both military and civilian casualties. and they've held back so far to enlist these things. now you've, you've, you've heard how israel, of course, has the iron, don't much better anti missile capabilities, but they can chew down individual rockets in the symbols, but it did despite this much of quantity to us inspired system, it cannot survive as for metallic origin of a lot of it has the largest capable of, i mean, i think they held back in part because they didn't. why is real to do inflect even more deb station on lebanon, but fairly, israel's were quite willing to do that anyway. so i am afraid just a matter of time before we do city hundreds of rather dramatic escalation. it gets in one of the top iranian officials, ibrahim, as easy to separate the leader of the supreme national security council,

said that is why the quote has opened, the gates will have against itself. but now when you look at why the iranian stand, if they decide not to at the, could just further exacerbate the fust ration among many of their own people and the supporters of hezbollah. but if they decide to react, what does he's going to leave the region? and he's right in particular if they're going to create an in cruise, but now has the capabilities been both the guess the just the mention when we are facing horrible things because they need to as input region or more was very you roommates was very low names drugs are big, national, communicable stories, both the stages means the black box or so it is read and i'm not sure that is where can we be spending this way? is more afraid drive in terms of thinking things. if it comes to the sense the

heart of the country and a is there any is up to or one quite complicated year, quite exhausted. and above board, people have no, where are we? i mean, what does the in game? i mean me, i'm just asking, why did we start to go off every day the in game. but other people supposed to. those was in the window a certain stage where they would start to pay a person. the price never start to austin. so what for what was your because nobody can name those 2 walsh where unpreventable because they're being prevented or do you use the term to prevent them? because bose garza ends and they will say, she's fine. does that? well, jeannette is still there. but is there a say no? okay, nicholas,

one of the key fig goes likely to succeed has on this level is hash him sophia dean, his his cousin. how strong ties with the iranians. what do you think would be the biggest challenge facing him in the near future? is it reorganizing the structure of the group or trying to build bridges with a different politic infections in lebanon, where the general consensus that is, people don't want to see more wars and conflicts in the region? well, it's unclear whether or not he will succeed to the secretary general shape. i'd also caution all viewers and all of us to be extremely cautious about any biographical details. and suppose the readings into various figures were in the middle of a war. and there's also a media war going on, long side, and then there has been for quite some time. that being said, i think the 1st order of business for any new secretary general will not be about the political machinations of domestic lebanese politics. they are on the cost of

and i would argue at the beginning of a wide open war that food and now that's much more likely to proceed to a several more violent regional war. in some ways this regional more has already happened many months ago, but it looks set to accelerate dramatically. so i think the 1st order of business is there will be a war time secretary general of heads above. they are at war and they have entered an open war period. it looks like which is fundamentally different from the periods that preceded it. warehouse. bella has to worry about the different political constituencies and 11 on its own supportive constituencies in middle use, its enemies 11 on its enemies in the near abroad and internationally. i think that right now they are in immediate war time mode and that is where we are going. unfortunately, steve, a few hours before the beginning of

a has on the law is right. departments have benjamin nothing. yeah. how was that? the united nations living a speech well, he was better defined following to come down on how about us and his bella. was he doing this on purpose knowing that the americans were going to be busy with the elections of that full. his he seized the opportunity for him to continue to finish what his thoughts it. i bought the item ministration was concerned about the elections. they would of the finally pressure israel to stop the war on gaza, which would stop the war and love it. and because the support for these boys was very unpopular in the united states, many people are blaming at the bite and administration and vice president harris. the bi extension. and there are many democratic leading voters, the young people, progressive era of americans, the muslims who are starting to not vote or vote 3rd party, rather than the vote for a candidate whom they associate with genocide. you mean there's some hand said

a vice president harris as president would be tougher on his role than bite and has a no indeed we've seen previous presidents, reagan there and, and, and stopped a israel from good to continue. it's offensive, and they root a back in 1982 of the obama twice forced israel to suspended attacks on gaza. presidents do have that power bite and has refused to do it. and so that's gotten a lot of anger and, and i think nothing. yeah. who's speech is disingenuous as it was on so many levels was largely towards an american audience. and to i did to basically try to justify this a continued war and to lessen the, the, the pressure that the binding ministration in congress is, is, this is, is a beginning to here. you know, from constituencies in the united states did in the,

on the politically they have nothing, you know, in particular on the army, on the same page about how to move next i would likely to see a ground invasion. yeah. not on the same page as they were even looked on the same page before the separation. but somehow i do know the owner is fine. the. ready same page, at least for concrete operations. i've seen none of them, neither. they are me go all the time, you know, on want to put an end to the war now. and i'm afraid that both with both the ground, the ration which might be the next challenge, the next very dangerous challenge in the, the better window is more because you chris, by the, we really launch real good so that when they come in today's, in their meaningful quantity or is land,

is what we say we have to go in. there will be a brochure. all the decision makers roll in and then we face the ground information . and then again, it's a new game because they swear to really get complicated in events up in the almost inevitably because the ones that i gave wouldn't be inside level known as the boys . many times before. there would be quite an advantage to who's been outposts as well no the the girl. busy oh, well, if quite well, quite well equipped with me, but the speed was live, but it's much more than combustible business. i knew that one year in gus i and they didn't achieve anything being never known, it would be much more complicated. so i think some of those, the army and then you, i will already for a drought declaration and also very bit ok. nicholas, there are people who say now in lebanon, that 2000,

not what is happening now is totally different to what happened in 2006 and for hezbollah to be able to move forward and reinventing themselves in the upcoming days, weeks or months. they have to understand the these to be a political consensus which never existed over the last 20 years or 25 years 11. and do you think they would be winning this time to offer some concessions to that key to challenge those 11? this question is very difficult to unpack because of the uncertainty of this next period you've, as gideon levy said, it's possible with the idea of the political leadership on the same page. and that there may be a ground invasion in the coming period. this is fundamentally different. this is a question of occupation invasion. and i think that there are the whole calculus of different lebanese political parties shifts the relationship with has butler

shifts. there is some concern or some hope in some quarters that some lebanese sides may find common cause with the israelis. all of this is, is real speculation, but it's all up for. busy for a consideration, because there are so many unknowns in this next period. the one thing that seems certain though is that things will get markedly worse. lebanese internal politics will probably get markedly worse now. fractures, more dangerous, and the situation of civilians in 11. 0 certainly. but also likely with an israel is also going to materially worse. and so i, you know, i, i just, i don't really see how has, by that can even reasonably calculate next steps domestically to try to shore up x, y, and z. i think again, we are at a major turning point, perhaps the, the greatest one in the last 11 and

a half months. and that these days and weeks could bring many scenarios. but most of them are quite all. stephen, us defense that goes the lloyd austin's will, and that's an old alt will between the bodies hezbollah and these right. it would be devastating for both 11 and, and is by and do you think that americans didn't have any sort of political leverage the, the can pull to try to put a, to contain the situation from the spinning out of control. we have considerable leverage, but they have chosen not down to do it is like most mentioned about the reagan and obama have been able to, to pressure were able to pressure his role to stop it. so wars in the past, but the biden, against the, the desires of the secretary defense austin of c, i directed, burns and, and reportedly vice president harris as well as, as were somehow believe that this is kind of a persuasion. it would be enough to curb the curb. nothing. yahoo! and it's very,

at least he's trying easy saying they should not to continue back in 2006. it was the bush administration that go to israel on against the better judgment of the they are. i general staff a to launch this round and age and then it's sending that israel's even thinking about this given what happened in 2006, the very own when a grand condition. uh, okay. roundly criticized the uh, the israeli authorities for, for such a, such a full a show operation. i mean, anybody's been to southern lebanon design allows just the trapeze itself is very, very challenging for any kind of offensive or military operation like that. and okay. yeah. and has the law as all these, all these tunnels and, and, and, and, and, and elaborate defensive systems. i mean, it would be, uh, it would, it would be a, um, a largest, really. so i would, would die. i mean 2006 was as was the 1st error for us to have a one to one ratio in terms of military casualties. even though of course, disability categories on the left need was much bigger. was that it helps with

either the good you love a stevens, vanessa and nicholas. now i really appreciate your insight looking forward to talking to you in the near future. thank you. it's a thank you to a whole lot so you can see the program again. any time by visiting our website, i'll just, you know, dot com for further discussion to solve a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside saw. you can also join the conversation on x, i'll hand it is at a j inside study for me. how should i go about? i'm the entire team here. and uh huh. bye. for now, the it is really forces seek to silence the truth. cindy occupied westbank storming and shutting down elsie's 00 in ramallah is targeting of the done is i as in years, a few minutes. the ending of john, it is a scene in gunners. lebanese done it is of does he like joining us?

it's another example of journalists not being allowed to do their work in this concept. big lord as me, that doesn't list the text. everything is being undermined by government. a titles who are 3rd grade to tear with use of to that address that you're going to authoration has read. journalism is not a crime for pressing. it is to understand why we must experience slice through now. designs, discover the stories to come with the voice is drowned out by the witness on, which is their investigative gen sharing personal stories with exploring the funds as well. plus program, see the world from a different perspective on the

challenges with the the, the, the, the tools for hezbollah is lead to the goods vows to find one against as well for the day of class on the, on the hello on. and this was put on, and this is our, does even live from the high watching, continue in coverage of hezbollah, need awesome the smallest, dest thousands killed, a neighborhood, and ruins and hospitals overwhelmed after wave of his riley,

as strikes on they vote.