of possibly trying to explore and abundance as well as class programming. as anybody died in gauze of starvation, this will just say things that are focused on the see the world from a different perspective on how to share his real has killed much of his full us leadership. now it says it's carrying out a ground operation inside lebanon. the military says the offensive will be limited and localize the air raids in the past week of killed hundreds of civilians. how can is real route out as well. this is inside the hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much i'm john. israel says it's army has launched the ground operation in southern lebanon to target has bullock. it's the

latest escalation after more than a week of air strikes across the country, which have killed hundreds of lebanese civilians. and the groups leader has on us all. it comes is really allies including us, president joe biden urgent to agree to a cease fire with his bottle. but washington's position is anything but clear. defense secretary lloyd austin that has voice support for the is really military goals and 11 on. so what is america strategy and then at least as a want to push is real towards a diplomatic solution or help it to we can has well, we'll discuss all this with our panel of guests in a moment. but 1st, this report from 1st year car, the slayers lit up the skies early on tuesday, signaling the beginning of israel's grand operation into southern lebanon for days, troops of immobilizing at the border about $41000.00 soldiers artillery and tanks, supported by drones and fighter jets the military says it's targeting has the last

sites in a limited localized rate after a week of intense air strikes and attacks on has the leadership, the confident because of recent successes in various assassinations and bombings that they have conducted. but frankly, i think they are over confident if they go in and they think that they can seriously disable his bottle on the ground. i think they're in for a few nasty surprises. the last time is ready, troops crossed into lebanon, was in 2006. that conflict killed more than 1100 lebanese civilians and a 158 as railways, most of whom were soldiers. it ended with a un security council resolution. which bard has the law from operating between the tiny river and the blue line? the unofficial border with israel, israel was meant to remove all of its troops from lebanese territory. however, neither side has ever fully complied with the terms either. if shortly before the

cross border rates began. us president joe biden urged israel to agree to a cease fire may be now launching a limited operation in the 11 on. are you aware of that? are you comfortable with their plan? i'm more aware than you might know, and i'm comfortable with them stopping. we should have a ceasefire. now despite that defense secretary lloyd austin says the us degrees of israel's objective right to dismantle attack infrastructure along the border to ensure has black kind of conduct. october 7 started attacks and northern israel of the year, who has succeeded once again in driving the united states to which side the us is eating, sending assets in order to to tar it wrong. and now i think what that does is it really encourages nothing yahoo to sort of increase the escalation. last month's prime minister benjamin netanyahu expanded the goals for israel's war on gaza to

include the return of 60000 residents to northern israel. his government is determined that the only solution is admitted terry, one, they are a political burden on this government shoulder so this government must redeem itself in the eyes of the citizens. and in fact, this incursion is, i think, more than anything meant to make them feel good to make them feel secure. so they will return home independently and resolve the governments problem. hundreds of lebanese civilians have already been killed. and after nearly a year of war and gaza, israel strongest allies, the united states appears increasingly unable to stop it from expanding the conflict. for the a car, i'll just 0 for inside story. all right, let's go ahead and bring our guests from new york city were joined by michael, where he'd come to the us program director at the international crisis group. he leads the organizations advocacy on u. s. foreign policy and conflict in west jerusalem is yolanda barbara,

the chairperson, the policy working group, and it's really advocacy team focusing on policy issues based on the 2 state solution. and in london is andreas creek and associate professor at the school of security studies at kings college london. a warm welcome to you all. thanks so much for joining us today on inside story, andreas, let me start with you today. so israel says that it's army has launched a ground operation in southern lebanon, and that this operation will be limited, will be localized, will be targeted. but we've seen a tax all over 11 on what is israel trying to achieve in lab and on. is there a strategy here? you know, i mean it as simple as know is real, it has not had a strategy for 12 months, not for the conflict in palestine and garza and also not for the conflict the 11 on and those are the 2 are interconnected. what happens and goals? i had an impact on 711 on the key, you know, what is really saying now is that they're trying to go in with a limited operation. nothing of about it is limited, is actually, you know,

fairly extensive. more people have been killed that level now than they were in 2006, and we're only for even 2 weeks into the conflict sense and all that will now. and even if, what is what it wants to achieve is kind of pushing his blood back to the autonomy river. that is not something that is sustainable unless is real, stays there, or someone else moves it. and to kind of keep that, keep that area clear of husband. so the question is really, what does it come so you can go, that is what, what's the strategic and came a game that is real, is off to and that's kind of the key question, mr. mentioned, you know, has been somewhat mr. mission creep if you will. i mean, he's what he's been looking at for the most part rather than coming up with a clear strategy, is kind of having a, stringing up rent and tactical and operational sort of uh, effects and trying to achieve strategy. but that's not how it works. there is no vision of how is real, can receive and can deliver long term stability and security for its people. and that's kind of the key question. if, if it's all about dismantling as well as capability to strike, then obviously there it can be eroded. it can be degraded,

a lot of it has happened already over the last 10 days. the question is just what will come off to how that in itself can be just another strategy of moving the loan is what we've seen for years happening and gaza. where you go in, you degrade, then you move out again, your let your enemy in this case has bought a regroup and, and, and re, um, and then fight another day in a couple of us time that com be, that's not instructed you. that's basically managing conflict, and that's the, the big question mark is going in with message cost for what end. and andrea as if we're talking about big question marks that are looming here. if i could just drill down a little bit deeper into what you're saying, i mean israel has continued to say not only that they want to degrade has bolus capabilities, but they've also said that they actually want to route out his bottle. is that a scenario that's actually possible and from your perspective, what kind of scenarios could we see going forward? absolutely, no, i mean the, the issue of hezbollah and lebanon is 11. these issue, it's a social, political one is not one that definitely is really shouldn't solve. it's not one

that external actors should solve. and it's certainly not something you can solve militarily. and that's the key issue every time is what has gone into that been on it, had it made messes was in 1982 in 2006. and like the going to happen today as well . the idea of resistance, which is the same kind of narrative that we have in in gaza, is one that cannot be routed out militarily. it requires social, political solutions and israel is not interested in providing them. and the root cause of all of this remains the issue in palace that remains the issue of the also, you know, the also the price as the issue of, of the tell us thing and state sort of the right of kind of students with self determination. if that is being addressed, that's something is real can do. it can solve a lot of these issues of mobilization, radicalization across the region, both in gaza, but also obviously and has pulling that in and never known. and that's something that israel is unwilling to do. it on as a former diplomat let, let me ask you, what do you think about this current escalation that's being carried out by israel and to the point that andreas was making there?

when it comes to the question that everybody's asking as to whether or not israel actually has a strategy or an in game here. do you believe that israel has a strategy? has an in game here, and one that they could actually carry out? yes, i had 2 remarks on the 1st floor and we should not forget the fact that the come us and his beloved and a tucked x ray 1st and they brutalize israel. i was trying to humiliate us and in a society that is a highly sensitive and with a tendency to become more and more nationalist and the tiny tea of october and an event from gaza and then from the living on. and gave the government a free hand to and it ultimately going to be tenderly on both sides. i do not

condone this and i do not represent my government. but am i saying that in any conversations the context must put that in place and be a consider it? yeah, no it, i think that the freight that the yahoo for his political ends domestically and it's right, it's of continuation and, and let's say a restricted, the escalation of the ministry operations in let alone as so seem right. it's can give you some time before he needs to move on on his domestic issues and very unfortunately, and that's why i love it. played into the hands of anthem, yahoo by a running and offensive policy towards israel and motivated so to speak via him. so he directly was from us and maybe more also is solving any ring

and, and, and build up or for the ring of triad. and that has given the government in israel, and i'll put you in a gate to go full imagery, an operation, my se, that is that like in the past is, are, and will be and successfully moving into live alone and disability and a, a success. so when it comes to getting in the middle of the street out and a, and a, the, a un security council resolution $71.00 and was sort of um, and very seeing the screen. yeah. but the loud this ryan 11 of uh, existence we say it potentially offensive a living on me, but a that was not enough. and today i hope the 2 parties are 2 sides. it

will be smart enough to go for ever. so you shouldn't, that's really low and stability on the boulder. so the them, me but nice and is. ringback really, farmers and the citizens can go back and do a re established as well as my goal. let's broaden this out a little bit here. um, you know, all of this is happening when there are, is really allies including us present a joe biden that are urging is real to agree to a cease fire with as well. but i want to talk to a little bit more about the position of the us because it's, it's really unclear what exactly washington wants. on the one hand, you have binding, continuing to say that he wants to see a ceasefire, but then you will have uh, you know, the language just come out of the pen and gone. and us secretary of defense, lloyd austin, he's voice support for is these really military's goals and 11 on um, what does america want right now? does it what is real to accept a diplomatic solution or does it want to help? is real. we can as well to yeah, i mean,

i think you put your finger on something important and that is that there are a lot of contradictory messages coming from washington coming from the by did ministration. you know, the president did mention the idea of, of a ceasefire and yet there's, there's really no evidence that there was entered. and. ready diplomatic energy behind that kind of initiative neither in gaza which has been a dead end. ready or months now or on israel's northern, in 11 on. and so at the same time you've also heard of supporting rhetoric and anonymous leaks that, that suggest um the optimism about what israel may be able to accomplish military. and now it's clear that there are a diversity of views within the budget ministration. and they have suggested

in uh, in the past few days that there has been an agreement on limited incursion into southern 11 on. but as we've seen throughout the almost as year of conflict assurance is on the front and we have often times not been carried out. and so i think at the same time there is a quite the. ready of the, sorry about where this is going, because as i, as your guess. so i've also made clear, there is a sense of what the final themes of this military campaign are. how that will be translated into a political outcome. but whether a political outcome is even going to be pursued. so i think there are a lot of unknowns, including how is real and because about my wheelchair military early,

i think there is quite a bit of a surprise, i think within the administration, just how successful israel has been a tactical level in terms of it's a. ready city to degrade as by law, to assess or they have to mess around a lot. and so i think that there is a bit of caution because the most, the worst case scenario is that the administration has been worried about that they have caution. these really is about i have not come to pass, so there is a kind of a missed sickness at the moment. um and i think a lot of confidence and perhaps over confidence on the part of these risks. andrea, as i saw you reacting to what michael was saying, looks like you wanted to jump in, so please go ahead us. no, absolutely agree. i think there is, there is a huge risk here. i mean, everyone is in this honest expression is for everyone that is absolutely surprised

by how quickly and how effective and the combination of app holland and intelligence has been integrating the operational strategic leadership of hezbollah . but i think we need, we must be very careful here to now equate this with what, how much of what fi as well as going to do on the ground has been a, has done nothing else for aging, is to prepare for a ground. what would they wanted that ground where they prepare the ground for a ground defensive and operating and this to ryan is going to be much more difficult than operating within gaza even if it's not done enough in context yet. but they're also tunnel assistance has been operate is like a like a network. so even if they are come out and control is degraded, even if a communication has been degraded there, these cells operate fairly, a ton of a slate and it won't be an easy. so it won't be a walk in the park for these release. they know that. and how do we need to be very careful not to, you know, not to in bold in these release. and i think that's goes to view as administration, not wimbledon, he is released to think out of hubris now that they can go the way or potentially

take this world's way to syria or potentially even to iran. i think that would be miscalculation. iran has been very cautious not to get sucked and they've been very cautious not to kind of have an old loud war. and it seems like from the messaging, they're not going to get involved with hezbollah, but there will be a red line. i think the video was going to going to be rude and, and really roots out hospitalized the movement as the integral helped in the excess of resistance. i. i would think that iran would do something about that, andreas let me also, after i saw your reaction earlier when the loan was talking about um the question about, you know, whether or not israel, once it potentially is more established in lebanon, if it can get us military yeah, and i want to ask you about that because i saw you reacting to that. i mean, do you think there was a concern right now that if israel's military goes in deeper that they are going to stay there for a longer amount of time? yeah, like i said, i mean this is mission creep. isn't that big, that there is no strategic end came. the idea is guided by tactical and operational objectives, that will be, you know, one operation objective is achieved and then they're moving into the next. so,

and that's what we've seen and gaza, the chief one, they move to the next one, they move to the next one. but it's, it's basically wondering around in circles and, you know, one key issue. i think that lots of people for guessing is that there is, this is the greatest breast and is really, is there any history between the security sector and the government in, in the way it's the idea of has probably come out said, what is our in game and goals, what are we trying to achieve? and the problem is that the id f has not had any answers yet. and the worry is that you might go around in circles and never known again, like they did in gaza, trying to achieve somebody that can be achieved when one objective leads to another way you're saying the going up to the tiny river, then we're going up to one river further north, then we might go up into a route. i don't think it's going to go to that far. and if there isn't, nobody is stopping as well right now. and i think that's where the us government needs to come in. we need someone to tell me is really why. busy limit so so we want you heard andreas are talking about the fact that he believes that you know, the us or, or some other power needs to be able to stop is real going forward. i want to ask

you, i mean, is there any room for diplomacy or from your perspective, does the us, at this point actually have the power to stop is real when it comes to it's offensive, both in lebanon and gaza. and it, if it's not the us, is there any other outside player that could do this? us? it is really a scan conducting it, say operations in light of 2 objectives that uh, give nothing, nothing to do with the warning living on. and it has everything to do is published time. and what one is a full on this, i'm yahoo to re, as you and his, his power domestically. i think he is looking at a and moving the and the elections and next elections uh to the origin of the day, which is somewhere in the 2nd half of $26.00. and that was the hope in is very early in the event. as a result of the disastrous catastrophe,

and we will have area elections and the removal from that time. yahoo, he said i did a month that he is the only one that can run the interest. so this way. and the 2nd is and his fear that the international community will and eh, and close around him, we say the 2 state solution. moving the palestinian a case, boyd. and i think for him, a continuation, an expansion of the role in living on right now gives him him some time a to maneuver on both ends and waiting to see what the result is in the, in, in the united states. if ton comes in, it's an entirely different test story, is a how do you say it takes over the, the white house, then the it will be more difficult twice road. but to, i'm to van,

he's doing his best to use to gain time and to use it to push back on any political solution of the day. after that, we'll allows the police daniel authority to assume the position of a gover means in gaza. and to get into it in alliance with the international community that will isolate the same even further. so it will in living on a weekend, in one of 2 rooms, a cases either. and there is an extend of sanction against it by the united states. we don't see it coming now. is it o m change? and if i'm the mentor change of uh, the success story is with content it saves, know about the role or if they, uh,

a casualties is really casualties as an own was in live alone. it is right when they have to consider a v vi, and that is always a critical the critical, a phase in any conflict, even live in on it is right and knows how to move in and is a disability in, in failure when it comes to living living on and then we will have to see how this it unfolds. michael, when it comes to the us, is what we're seeing. is it more that america is unwilling to stop israel, or is it more that america is unable to stop israel from expanding these conflicts? well, it's been unable using the tools that it has drive the expectation and consultation in a with messaging. it has the going to to use the other kinds of

tools, the actual real leverage. obviously, a israel is a sovereign country, it makes its own independent decisions about its actual security. but it is unique . we rely on the united states, its military. it is excessively reliant on the us equipment, spare parts replenishment. um, you know, these are things that can be ready to be replaced now. uh, this also is an option that the by the administration has been willing to employ. uh, i think that the political calendar suggests that that's not something that we're going to see in the near term. and i think research is early success militarily also suggests that the buy me ministration is not going to be interested in trying to deploy that kind of leverage with israel in, in, in the coming months. and so what we've seen then. ready is united states being

gradually dragged along and uh, acclimatizing itself to the shipping is rarely goals. and that's not a comfortable place for an american administration to be clearly not really in charge of, of dynamics and reacting to a military developments as they call. and of course, us personnel are part of this story because they have been us, a personnel have flowed back into the region personally as an effort to deter, as well, uh, and the wrong. and, but that also creates a great sense of security. i think for israel and does create some moral hazard in the sense of providing something that the guarantee in terms of us defensive

actually should the read your really start michael. let me also just ask you about something that you've, you know, referred to, and also a lawn referred to, which is the specter of the us elections that are just coming up in about 5 weeks from now. i mean, how much is that playing into all of this when it comes to perhaps the timing, the fact that israel would choose now to launch this, what they're calling ground, defensive or targeted ground defensive into lebanon. and also how much of a problem is this? for the binding administration this particular moment. yeah, i mean, you know, a lame duck presidency is its own unique thing and i think it's, it's very positive. ready that the timing of this military campaign and the american political calendar are linked. but regardless of we, we can say that it, it does kind of a and it could be the impact on the freedom of american operation as we're seeing

now. that now, the politics of this in the united states are quite comp, okay? and then of course for candidates care us, this is not the sort of thing that she will welcome. it is the headache. there are political costs on either side. and as we've seen with the uncommitted movement and descent from within the democratic party, there has been a lot of opposition to the way the binding ministration has as handled a post october 7th, more particularly with respect to gaza. and then at the same time, there are political costs on the other side. if the bible ministration were to aggressively exercise leverage that comes with its own cost, some of the pro israel supporters in the united states. and so it, it is,

you know, it is it, it is a complicated equation. i think for harris there is the further specter of trump trying to exploit this pay off of the world. so that this is a function of the, by the administration by the sheriff's administration missteps. and um, so this isn't the topic that harris will go out to have. ready mean large, over the closing weeks of the upper campaign i'm, you know, it is a distraction um, but it's, you know, it is something that the administration is going to have to deal with. and uh, they seem at the moment to be resigned to the fact that this land operation, this invasion of the south is going to happen. and i think they are hoping for the best. but there hasn't really been a lot of preparation and thought give it to what comes next. all right,

well we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much. all our guests, michael white. honda yolanda barrel. and andreas creek and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just do it, comment for further discussion. go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside storage. you can also have the conversation on x r handle is at ag inside story for me, how much is human the whole thing here, bye for now, the as the world economy, those struck those with a strong result. indonesia is where such resolve about the right place for your business to get off the ground of grace. otherwise

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. ready ready the iran finds nearly 200 ballistic missiles, says ro, in response to the killing of thomas on his believers, as well as a senior revolutionary cards come onto the hello on side of height of this is all the 0 ally from the whole. so coming up on the program, israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu once that iran has made.