to come to you by palestine. despite the indescribable personal trauma, restricted movement and rehearsals wanted by israel, the army incursions at director and his budding actors are at them. and to tell the story to the world. one of the toughest times and protestants history. and somehow the c jeanine's freedom theater, a witness documentary on a jersey to the hello. i'm adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on, i'll just say, are you'll, we can look at the world of business that they cannot makes. this week is rails educated workers are leaving the nation in drugs. that's one, it's more on the concept has ground. it's fine to economic sectors to a halt, kind of for another war with level 11 and is in

a deep economic crisis. and its infrastructure is already passive. a full out pool with israel could straight its limited resources even further. the british prime minister has bound to rebuild his nation's economy. the chemist on that has warmed on popular decisions will be needed to do this almost a year into the war on cost as well as the economy is facing its deepest decline. it is. ministry spending is ballooning borrowing is rocketing and revenue use a drying up international trust in an economy. one c, as an entrepreneurial engine is waning files of highly educated and skilled workers of leaving israel when attracting new talents to a country of war is challenging to say, the least is where the economists feel that a white, a war in the middle east could strain the economy even further, they say that only a cease fire could help to repair the extensive financial damage. sends them on

a reports. israel's war on gaza has dragged on for nearly a year. more than 40000 palestinians have been killed and the strips infrastructure lies in ruins. in contrast, israel appears compared to the unscathed, but under the surface, the worst putting pressure on the economy. gdp is full and the costs of the war ramping up the deficit. that's credit raising has been cut a growing number of economists believe the war is becoming unsustainable already or not a real blanket array of sweet point 7 percent. which means that if once it didn't go out then we're, i'm going to lose this thing. i need you to pay $10000000000.00, but it's only good if it went a little bit less more. but if i'm a re stumbled in an increase or there will, i'm didn't. i don't know what. then the other thing we were to think of the war has

removed bible workers from the economy. nearly 300000 israeli citizens have been called up to fight the largest mobilization over service in the country's history. these include professionals and key sectors like technology that are not easily replaced. in addition, many high value workers are leaving the country and not coming back. official figures show more than 12000 just riley's left in october. i've chosen not to return. that's nearly 3 times the usual figure in the month since departures of return to normal levels. but the number of attorneys is still 21 percent less than normal. other parts of the economy are also losing workers. construction and agriculture relied heavily on route 80000 palestinians, mostly from the occupied westbank since the war they've been denied entry. some effects of the war on gods that will be temporary, but others could have a more lasting impact. and the longer the conflict drugs on the harder it might be

to reverse the damage. been to them on an al jazeera for counting the cost, a level associate member countries in the organization for economic cooperation and development is rails economy. let's face the biggest slow down between april and june g. d. p was expected to grow 3 percent in 2024, but the bank of israel now predicts the growth rate of 1.2 percent. one of the biggest drivers of the slow down is export switch declined by 8.3 percent. the construction of agriculture sectors have been hit by shortage of palestinian workers, so no longer allowed israel from the occupied west banking concept. inflation accelerated, more than expected last month to $3.00. yeah, on the travel and vegetable prices were among the items the gross, the most in august. more than $46000.00 businesses have closed since the start of the war, the budget deficit, bruce doubled an 8 percent of g d p over the last 12 months, and credit rating agencies have downgraded as well for the 1st time. it is history

. now, economists say the total cost of the war could amount to $120000000000.00. so 20 percent of g d p. joining us not from lancaster in the u. k. is our winter. there's a professor of economics that the hebrew university professor of the economy of lancaster university good to have you with us, professor. this bible, we've a saying that when you do a deep dive on the data, as well as economy appears to be pretty stable at the moment in inflation we're rising is under control. personal debt is relatively low. and the how much strain is the economy really? and kind of sustain that strain, could it take it so much longer? well, the economies on strain, the war is still is not something simple to go through economically. and israel is facing the cost of the war very prominently. um,

recently uh there were decision on where they were planning to raise taxes and uh remove the tax relief that has been uh, embedded in the budget for many years to cover these extra cost. and of course the extended the war with chris belie increase the cost there is um, now um a major draft taken place and these red that will also reduce um the, the lady blower market uh, the active labor market. and all of these, or, of course, as you described, are due to the war, or if give them that can as well afford another war with lebanon. well, it's not matter of, for forwarding is what i can afford. first of all, right? for me, i can only point phone to fewer economic point of view is where it has the reserve to it. and you know, when you, when it comes to, to military conflicts,

the issue is not whether you can afford it. the issue is whether you have the support for it and it, you might be surprised by that use why we support through the war against fees, but not small. the gain slip and on it's a warrant gains piece by law, has more support than the peroration is right in the after. so uh, october 7, if you guys, uh, they use riley's r a very angry they, they, uh they have a very strong rage against the um, this is, well, uh, 1st of all, due to the dis, many 10802000 display is right. at least that had left to leave their homes in the northeast, right. they don't understand his writing. don't understand what he's belie has to do with the well, the under the way to proceed with is that, uh,

and the way that the, almost everybody in the western one perceive it is that they are driven by iran and, and they are not party to the cost of the professor, you mentioned a people moving away from the north of israel through to the that they the ongoing conflicts the on that border region that's been going on since october the 7th. i mean, that must affect israel economically as well, but also the beginning of the program we mentioned about the, the brain drain, the fact that so many young, well educated professionals are choosing to leave israel right now because of what is going on. um, how does that impact the economy in the long term impact the economy and that may be but the economy substantially. but i have to, uh, remind you one thing is that uh much of the, um, professional um, labeled power label or do you want copies of the news? read is in the tech industry, right. the high tech industry,

these are people that basically can do the work anywhere in the world. okay. so many of them who leave the country okay. are taking the job with them. they don't resign, they don't take a leave of absence. they just go on um, either cyprus or the u. k. or anywhere else and, and continue their job online. this is possible if you're dealing with a i or you are working in the development of the software. or if you're developing the pop product, this is these days. it's possible people have done it for probably and uh, 2 years ago and they're doing it to gain, you mentioned percept professional, the resilience of, of these ready economy. it has bounced back off to of, to previous conflicts, but as you say, this little, this war is dragging out is going on for 11 months. right now. this war is okay. no . yeah. so, so, so much longer than people expect again. so, so how,

how long would it take if, if, if there's a lender tomorrow, how long would it take these ready economy to, to, to recover very quickly if it ends tomorrow, it will, it will allow these right economy to recover very quickly because psychologically, people are relies with realize that if the war is over and there is a deal that guarantees certain security for the country the in the next several years, then it would be like, call me when called me and the people realize there is no reason why that recession will a tier while problems will continue, we're going back to work and, and seeing so going to be better the same effect with prevail, the if, if, if the war ends quickly got to talk to him professor many thanks and thanks for being with us. thank you. a level has inflicted the fall, heavier toll on guns and the palestinian economy. of course,

your military and health crisis in gaza is worsening by the hour. well, aid into the strip is still very limited. meanwhile, major is where the banks have stopped accepting shackle cash transfers from palestinian banks and the occupied westbank. the move could soon prevent palestinians from accessing fine to goods and services. the temperature is economic activity is almost ground to a halt due to a tax by is ready, soldiers and settlers now to lebanon, where israel has carried out its most violent assault on the nation in decades and all out for, with israel could cost lebanon hundreds of millions of dollars a day. the risks for the nation, this time of fall bigger than during the war with is ran in 2006. the cash strapped country is reeling off the use of political and economic crises. government corruption of mismanagement has left it without a stable electricity supply or a proper banking system. many lebanese people are receiving aid to survive. the latest wave of violence,

the internal displacement could strain the nation's resources even further. so the account reports is rarely air strikes have time to 11 on killing hundreds the space, and thousands and causing massive damage. there being exchanges of fire with has been lost since the war and gas. it began in october for this river latest offensive is a major escalation. as the danger of an all at war grows. so to fears of an economic collapse in the shop. and then if you have that issue, that we are seeing the destruction of large areas of agricultural land and residential buildings in the majority of the regions of labor and on says has damage the economy of our country and switzerland as social order. especially often, many countries have requested the citizens to leave lep and on a lebanon has already been in an economic crisis since 2019 electricity and public services are barely functioning. the currency has lost 90 percent of its value.

families have lost their savings, and 80 percent of the population is living below the poverty line. in september, the former head of the central bank re, it's allow me was arrested on corruption charges. but critics say the problem goes far beyond one man. they blame lebanon's, a leads for mismanaging the economy. the failing to implement reforms. while hot, everyone has collaborated with react salome whether they were in the deep state or in the bank space a, he's money loan during the media. they should be in jail with 2000 and a half that the bombing in israel has worn lebanese people to move away from any area for hezbollah, as active. according to the un, even a limited escalation could see 250000 people displaced 11 on what struggles to deal with this. and will likely have to rely on international funding. and all that war could drive a 1000000 people from their homes and thought the country itself,

a risk of collapse for the car, how to 0 for counting, the cost. joining us from pay roads is somebody who loves the policy director, the pay route based alternative policy institute. good, tiny with this summit you heard professor, i went to a few minutes ago talking about the costs for the fighting on the lebanon's border with israel, which has of course says it's coming out in support of the people of, of gaza. that's been happening since october 7th last year. how much of an impact has bob had on lebanon's economy as well? let me let him know the economy was in dire straits before this conflict. and i think again, we are really playing with a very, very sensitive situation. at the moment, i mean, as you're, as the leader, right, the proclaimed the use of financial mismanagement that was brought about by the political class, but also the banking classes were usually one of them. same means that there has

been no investment um your key sectors such as tourism and you know, as it have collapse because of the war that is ongoing and give the prices are going up and small businesses are feeling the pinch. i mean, this, the human capital slides that's, that's incredible. so what we're seeing right now is the expansion of an informal one that it resembles of war and con, store should just behavior a thriving estate resources and shrink. and so this complex really needs to be put in context. so for me, they can only perspective when we, when we, when we understand the full repercussions of what could possibly have the major fear right now, is a major infrastructure strike on board. um, our ports are ports of sip ports which would lead to fully cut on the collapse and increased corruption and reliance on a more or less a legal activities. the pin cost for a cease fire, of course. but what would an all out for, with his royal mean set for 11,

them's economy? well, i mean, let's, let's try to understand things from mentoring perspective as well. i mean, the 65 percent of lebanese and 70 and 90 percent of the syrians were already in need of monitoring a foreigners for a prolonged conflict. for 11 years. economy would be an absolute disaster. that would be there already, very little resources to fund the current displacement crisis that we're dealing with. let's take 11 on the health care system for instance. i mean, when the last more happened with between israel and his beloved 2006, there were about 13000 hospital beds. now we're down to 8000 as lots of medical professionals already left the country because because of the financial crisis. so we don't have the capacity to deal with a prolong for a prolonged world. ready push level and further into poverty, exacerbate food insecurity deep in any quality. and the real see are um, i think among many is that civil strife could emerge. estate structure is continues

to deteriorate and pensions building between communities. i mean, this is including the syrian refugee community, which is often gate code for the failings of the government, i think is what is really the bedding on obviously, nothing. yeah. who is playing for time? he doesn't have a very good situation on his hands. i mean military spending israel's up a 100 percent. that's before this one. if you can imagine how much it will increase, i don't think these rarely is really understand the cost and they will have to bear . and i think this is part of newton. yeah. who's calculations as well, and he's thinking, you know, if i can, if i can, so internal strikes and loving on, then it has a level meal to internal pressures and, and, and that makes the sessions at the negotiating table. and i think this is the game, the, the sick game that's being played right now. but i also think the lebanese understand this, and that will help to, to proceed internal strife. uh, well, hopefully a negotiated settlement comes to pass, but i fear that the economic recovery 11 will be much harder when the dust settles

because you have a lot more ground to today to get back to 0 and then to actually recover. right. so the government will agree, does not really have the funds or the resources to deal with a humanitarian crisis. what about a plan, a place to secure the essential needs of its people? does it have one as well? i have to say for the 1st time in a long time, love need. it's already seemed somewhat prepared. they've had a year to prepare their shelters in place for round the 1000000 lebanese at the moment. um that means and syrian refugees and also posted in refugees that have been in the country since the creation of israel in 1948. but they need about a $100000000.00 a month as a standard, and they don't have that money at food and medicine and stuff filed for about 5 to 6 months. but the problem is, the diesel reserves are available for about 4 to 6 weeks. and if you, if you put that together, what you're looking at is

a country that is ill prepared to deal with in, with increased demand in a for a long conflict. and despite the start filing efforts, i think it won't be enough to it simply, there simply isn't enough money. there simply isn't enough resources. and those simply isn't enough manpower to deal with a prolonged monitoring prices and the kind of good stuff to you send me that he thinks of data being with us. thank you. the use of pages and walkie talkies and coordinates of explosions in lebanon has drawn scrutiny. so security and global supply chains, when it's unclear how the device is exploded, lebanese officials accused israel of tempering with them. i always say that people's trust in that electronic devices is taking a hit off to the incidence. they expect the governments to restrict the flow of sensitive technology and encourage companies to move manufacturing closer to home. a left leaning note to come out of this america has been sworn in as ro,

lancoste tense president. his election was the 1st to be held since mass protests and seated caused by roger parks. in 2022 of this rank of software. this was economic crisis, this one ica has promised to crack down on corruption and to continue the bailout deal struck with the international monetary fund. he's also pledged to reduce the impact of its a static images on the countries forest. difficult times overhead for the british economy, that's the warning from the british prime. it is step, but keeps tom as a show of the british people that he won't go down the road of a stereotype. despite planned bunch of constant tex wise's, he assisted the tough decisions when in the end lead to what he called a national renewal during the labor annual policy conference, the gathering was aimed at striking a more positive note of his government was accused of due monitoring of the state of the economy, the p. m, has been on the pressure of the decision to limit when to fuel payments to the elderly, and his use of donations for clothing and hospitality. let's hear what he had to

say. so we've called the national review all the time and we will we will move along is not recommended me clear out the full review since the foundation level tomorrow they took place at work and broke. the law group with we're starting with was with us the java. we have served that grid for lot 2 years, but are people buying into storms promises? let's see what some british people think. i don't think that's pretty good in sales yet because they've only been in office for a very short time. and obviously to a piece to everyone can say that they're going to do a lot of things and whether they do those things is a whole not the full game. so we're now gonna have to wait for at least 2 years to see how it helps the economy. and so it helps the british, the people. yeah, it's a waiting game. i'm basically, they're all the same. say that's quite

a mess. the previous part is not a not labor party behind and the country is financially strange. so it's gonna take tough decisions to flight. they said, raising taxes. and that would be an obvious one, raising taxes and people that can afford it, not on the people that can to in order to return the services that are badly needed all through the cry museum and the nepotism guy at home on where i live in one state, there's a guy who jung crow. i used to be more like when say, and he's just defend most of the last minute. his wife is able to use sears to rights who brings so when he goes to the hassle moves the december for his new year's arms, they begin for independence. like to sign in. that sounds sort of ap flight, but absolutely disgusting. what you've done so that what i spent 2 days is absolutely more of a full, full, fast impact, full size and tape the a yeah. i kind of sort of he's,

if he's going to be for 5 years is $20000.00. joining us not from london is need us get our chief executive epicenter, the economics and business research could help you with this data. the new government claims the jobs, fiscal hole in the u. k. that needs plugging is the and who's responsible for that . but, but the labor government is planning the previous conservative administration as well. is there a physical hole? yes, there is. how large it is. it is a very subjective depth to them because the way something like that is calculated is very, very sensitive to forecasts. and in the case case, like the forecasts from b o, b r, which sort of an independent party a looking at the u. k. economy and sort of a, a watchdog really operating alongside the government and to but i think probably the one of the biggest for me take away from the labor party conferences. is that sort of the definition at how you look at the fiscal whole?

the fiscal gap might change because it is actually something that is a self imposed rule in a health imposed definition. so the government has this co, not only to raise taxes to reallocate or cut spending to address the physical situation, but they actually more fundamentally, also have the ability to say, we don't have to stick to these rules here as an alternative set of rules. and that is what the new target will be. so that's why it's very difficult for you how the fiscal, how large the fiscal whole a is. it's very subject subjects to forecast. and also the definition actually might change as in bought drugs. the prime minister has a lot of other uncomfortable budgets to come in a months time. is he going about things the white way? do you think he's wanting the public that the things will need to get tough at all? the plans that have been room at the white ones you think to fix this fiscal whole . so there is definitely

a lot of very careful messaging going on. um we just heard into the program and i fully agree with is that the labor conference actually saw a pretty market shift in tone before the conference. there was quite a lot of stark negativity, some of which warranted but some of it slightly overblown. for example, a couple of weeks ago we had the comment from the chancellor that we are possibly facing a loss of confidence in the pound. i think remarks like that haven't been especially helpful because they're not particularly rooted in, in reality, i do think on the other hand, it is fair to say that the country is not in a particularly strong position economically. but what i have liked seeing of the conference is at the shift seems to be moving on, not just from how do we in the immediate future or raise taxes. how do we improve the fiscal positioning? but actually, how do we stimulate growth? because that is what the big question should be. if you have

a higher economic growth, you will have higher tax in taking even at current rates of taxation. and that is why the big question should be not just how do we change the taxation in spending. but how do we stimulate growth, and that is what i will be hoping to see more about that as well. so. so how does the private assistant be that course, i mean, did use for say, perhaps price of ties with, with europe sometime during, during this part of it, that would help surely wouldn't that often breaks it and then we'll help. i think the timeline is on our own and how it will help our are quite, quite questionable, as we've seen in the aftermath of brags, it's changing long established trade practices can take quite a while. so it's not sort of just the pendulum to can now the canals swing back, things that have changed in the after amount of breaks that i don't think can very quickly be, be reversed. i think probably more area that the new government is looking at and where they've really pinned a lot of their hopes in terms of stimulated growth is planning, reform, building,

housing, a key infrastructure. i think that is also what is going to be probably use as a justification to tinker with the fiscal rules that it's ok to have a more like a relaxed set of targets if it's going to the building houses building infrastructure. so i think sort of trying to instigate more of a construction more about building belie of the planning reform is, is probably the big ticket policy that the government is taking its hopes on. been a really good story to you on counting the cost. many thanks indeed for being with us. thank you. and that's all show for this week. if you'd like to get in touch with us and comments on anything that you've seen, i'm at a sending an on x. try to remember to use the hash tag h a c t c o, you can trumps a line counting the cost of out a 0. don't net as an email address, as always, plenty more few online at elder 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to

a page that you'll find the individual reports links at the top edition speed to capture that that is a, this edition of counting the cost i made for you instead of going from the team here. and so how, thanks for being with us, the news i was a 0. this next the hello and welcome. and just i, that's the 2 days the us will elect a new president and the 2 vice presidential candidates and bolts and j. d. vance are about to go head to head in a televised debate full possibly the only time before the event, the votes. well let's go straight to, to harvard's on see whose life for us, from new york's to have. what do we expect seen tonight?

you know, is interest in gallup just came out with its lasers polling and it found that almost $4.10 registered voters thing. both candidates, a poor choices for the vice presidency. so this is a challenge for them to introduce themselves to a nation wide audience. they both have a history of come back to debate, performances about political careers that go to each other under each other. skin do a certain extent, it's been reported because it was well to coined the phrase will quite be descriptive, descript tool for valves. if he was weirds phones, meanwhile, as, as question one says military record, the mikes will be all at all times. that wasn't the case during the harris by database. so lots of excitement about that, but we expect the main issues subbing. we're here now from the trump campaign, actually he's going to be hammering. i'm the economic message over and over and over again with the economy, immigration portion. so we took foreign policy actually to have a more prominent role this time, given what's happening in the,

in the middle east. however, given this is cbs given, this is the west to media and given post super campaign platforms, this will probably devolve into a whose support israel, more debate rather than the easiest route dragging to us and to get another mid list of all. or i can, thanks very much. so to have um, also uh, just so you know, with all the cd, taking you to that debate that's being hosted by the us network. cbs news. we're expecting it to solve at any moment. so we have to have still that waiting for us. no. okay. so obviously we're expecting the 2 vice presidential candidates about to speak. that's in well and j, the funds in senator j. d. vance, of ohio. now this is likely the final debate of this election cycle and voting is already underway in 20 states. cbs who's following shows. this remains a res, either presidential candidate could win events.