i your nominate, decisions made from the white house, the sick millions around the world. stay without your 0 for life, coverage of every wisdom to the special programming and correspondence across the country. both parties are looking for any small group they can get to put them over the top. god bless the united states of america are great. the us elections on the hello, i'm adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i'll just say are you'll, we can look at the world of business and they cannot makes this week is rails educated workers are leaving the nation in drugs. that's one, it's more on the concept has ground. it's fine to economic sectors to a halt. counties are for another war with level 11 and is in

a deep economic crisis. and its infrastructure is already passive. a full out pool with israel could straight its limited resources even for the british prime minister as bound to rebuild his nation's economy. the chemist on that has one but on popular decisions will be needed to do this almost a year. busy into the war on cost as well as the economy is facing its deepest decline. it is. ministry spending is ballooning borrowing is rocketing and revenue use a drying up international trust in an economy one seen as an entrepreneur, real engine is waning, follows of highly educated and skilled workers of leaving israel while attracting new talents to a country of war is challenging to say the least is where the economists fear that a white a war in the middle east could strain the economy even further. they say that only a cease fire could help to repair the extensive financial damage. since the reports

of israel's more on garza has dragged on for nearly a year, more than $40000.00 palestinians have been killed and stripped infrastructure lies in ruins. in contrast, israel appear as compared to the unscathed, but under the surface, the worst putting pressure on the economy. gdp is full and the costs of the war ramping up the deficit. that's credit raising has been cut. a growing number of economists believe the war is becoming unsustainable already or not a very good rate of sweet point 7 percent. which means that if we didn't, don't them, we're going to lose this. you know it, you to pay for $10000000000.00, but it's only going to be well, one was in my small. but if we stumbled in and countries with their will, i'm didn't, i don't know what. then the other thing we were think of the war has removed vital

workers from the economy. nearly 300000 israeli citizens have been called up to fight the largest mobilization of a service in the country's history. these include professionals and key sectors like technology that are not easily replaced. in addition, many high value workers are leaving the country and not coming back. official figures show more than $12000.00 is riley's left in october. i've chosen not to return. that's nearly 3 times the usual figure. in the month since departures have returned to normal levels, but the number of attorneys is still 21 percent less than normal. other parts of the economy are also losing workers. construction and agriculture relied heavily on route 80000 palestinians, mostly from the occupied westbank. since the war they've been denied entry. some effects of the war on gods, it will be temporary, but others could have a more lasting impact. and the longer the conflict drugs on the harder it might be

to reverse the damage. then to the mountain al jazeera for counting the cost of all associate member countries in the organization for economic cooperation and development. israel is economy. let's face the biggest slow down between april and june g. d. p was expected to grow 3 percent in 2024, but the bank of israel now predicts the growth rate of 1.2 percent. one of the biggest drivers of the slow down is exports which declined by 8.3 percent. the construction of agriculture sectors have been hit by a shortage of palestinian workers, so no longer allowed israel from the occupied west bank and gaza. inflation accelerated, more than expected last month to $3.00. yeah, on the travel and vegetable prices were among the items the gross, the most in august. more than $46000.00 businesses have closed since the start of the war, the budget deficit. first of all, the 8 percent of g d, p over the last 12 months and credit rating agencies have downgraded as well for

the 1st time. it is history. now economists say the total cost of the war could amount to $120000000000.00. so 20 percent of g d p. joining us now from lancaster in the u. k. is our winter. there's a professor of economics that the hebrew university professor of the economy of lancaster university. good to have you with us professor. this bible, we've a saying that when you do a deep dive on the data, as well as the economy appears to be pretty stable at the moment in inflation we're rising is under control. personal debt is relatively low. and the how much strain is the economy really and kind of sustain that strength of it. take it so much longer. well, the economies on strain, the war is still is not something simple to go through economically. and israel is facing the cost of the war very prominently. um,

recently uh there were decision on where they were planning to raise taxes and uh, remove the tax relief that has been uh, embedded in the budget for many years to cover these extra cost. and of course the extended uh war with chris belie increase the cost there is um, now um a major draft taking place and these red that will also reduce um the, the lady blower market uh, the active labor market. and all of these, or, of course, as you described, are due to the war, or give them that can as well afford another war with lebanon. well, it's not matter of for forwarding is read, can't afford the 1st of all right, cool. for me i can only point phone to fewer economic point of view is where it has the reserve to it. and you know, when you, when it comes to,

to military conflicts, the issue is not whether you can afford the issue is whether you have the support for it. and it, you might be surprised by that use why we support through the war against fees, but not small. the gain slip and on it's a warrant gains piece by law has more support than the peroration is right. and the after so uh, october 7, a team garza is riley's r, a very angry they, they, uh they have a very strong rage against the um, this is, well, uh, 1st of all, due to the dis, many 10802000 display is right at least that had left to leave their homes in the northeast. right. they don't understand. is there any, don't understand what she's belie has to do with the well, the under the way the perceive it is that, uh, and the way that the,

almost everybody in the western one perceive it is that they are driven by iran and, and they are not party to the cost of the professor. you mentioned a people moving away from the north of israel through to the that they, the ongoing conflicts the on that border region that's been going on since october, the 7th. i mean that must affect israel economically as well. but also the beginning of the program, we mentioned about the, the brain drain, the fact that so many young, well educated professionals are choosing to leave israel right now because of what is going on. um, how does that impact the economy in the long term impact the economy and that may be but the economy substantially. but i have to, uh, remind you one thing is that uh much of the, um, professional um, labeled power label or do you want copies of the news? read is in the tech industry, right. the high tech industry,

these are people that basically can do the work anywhere in the world. okay. so many of them who leave the country okay. are taking the job with them. they don't resign, they don't take a leave of absence. they just go on um, either cyprus or the u. k. or anywhere else and, and continue their job online. this is possible if you're dealing with a i or you are working in the development of the software. or if you're developing the pop product, this is these days. it's possible people have done it probably in the 2 years ago and they're doing it to gain. you mentioned percept professor, the resilience of, of these ready economy. it has bounced back off to of, to previous conflicts, but as you say, this low, this war is dragging out is going on for 11 months. right now. this war is already, you know? yeah. so, so, so much longer than people expect again. so, so how,

how long would it take if, if, if this all ended tomorrow, how long would it take these run the economy to, to, to recover very quickly if it ends tomorrow, it will, it will allow these right economy to recover very quickly because psychologically, people are relies with realize that if the war is over and there is a deal that guarantees certain security for the country the in the next several years, then it would be like, call me when called me and the people realize there is no reason why that recession will a tier while problems will continue, we're going back to work and, and seeing so going to be better the same effect with prevail the if, if, if the war ends quickly got to talk to him professor many thanks and thanks for being with us. thank you. a level has inflicted the fall, heavier toll on guns and the palestinian economy. of course,

your military and health crisis in gaza is worsening by the hour. well, aid into the strip is still very limited. meanwhile, major is where the banks have stopped accepting shackle cash transfers from palestinian banks and the occupied westbank. the move could soon prevent palestinians from accessing fine to goods and services. the temperature is economic activity is almost ground to a halt due to a tax by is ready, soldiers and settlers now to lebanon, where israel has carried out its most violent assault on the nation. in decades, in all our pool with israel could cost lebanon, hundreds of millions of dollars a day. the risks for the nation, this time of fall bigger than during the war with is ran in 2006. the cash strapped country is relaying off the use of political and economic crises. government corruption of mismanagement has left it without a stable electricity supply or a proper banking system. many lebanese people are receiving aid to survive. the latest wave of violence,

the internal displacement could strain the nation's resources even further. so the account reports is rarely air strikes have time to 11 on killing hundreds the space and thousands and causing massive damage. there being exchanges of fire with has been lost since the war and gas. it began in october. for this river latest offensive is a major escalation. as the danger of an all at war grows. so to fears of an economic collapse in the shop and then if you have that, it should be we are seeing the destruction of large areas of agricultural land and residential buildings in the majority of the regions of labor and on says has damage the economy of our country and switzerland as social order, especially often many countries have requested the citizens to leave lep and on a lebanon has already been in an economic crisis since 2019 electricity and public services are barely functioning. the currency as lost,

90 percent of its value families have lost their savings, and 80 percent of the population is living below the poverty line. in september, the former head of the central bank re a to allow me was arrested on corruption charges. would critics say the problem goes far beyond one man? they blame lebanon's, a leads for mismanaging the economy. the failing to implement reforms. while hot, everyone has collaborated with react salome whether they were in the deep state or in the bank space. a piece of money loaners are in the media. they should be in jail with 2000 and half of the bombing. and israel has warned lebanese people to move away from any area for hezbollah, as active, according to the un, even a limited escalation, could see 250000 people displaced 11 on what's the struggle to deal with this. and will likely have to rely on international funding. and all that war could drive a 1000000 people from their homes and thought the country itself,

a risk of collapse for the car, how to 0 for counting, the cost. joining us from the roots is somebody who love the policy director, the pay route based alternative policy institute. good, tiny with this summit you heard professor, i went to a few minutes ago talking about the costs for the fighting on the lebanon's border with israel, which has of course says it's coming out in support of the people of, of gaza. that's been happening since october 7th last year. how much of an impact has bob had on lebanon's economy as well? let me let him know the economy was in dire straits before this conflict. and i think again, we are really playing with a very, very sensitive situation. at the moment, i mean, as you're, as the leader, right, the proclaimed the use of financial mismanagement that was brought about by the political class, but also the banking class where usually one of them same means that there has been

no investment um, your key sectors such as tourism and you know, as it have collapse because of the more that is ongoing and get, the prices are going up and small businesses are feeling the pinch. i mean this, the human capital slides that's, that's incredible. so what we're seeing right now is the expansion of an informal one that it resembles of war and con, store should just behavior thriving, estate resources, and shrink. and so this complex really needs to be put in context. so for me, they can only perspective when we, when we, when we understand the full repercussions of what could possibly have the major fear right now, is a major infrastructure strike on board. on our ports are ports of sip ports which would lead to fully cut on the collapse and increased corruption and reliance on a more or less a legal activities the pin cause for a cease fire, of course. but what would an oil out for, with israel mean set for 11?

them's economy? well, i mean, let's, let's try to understand things from mentoring perspective as well. i mean, the 65 percent revenues and 70 and 90 percent of the syrians were already in need of monitoring a foreigners for a prolonged conflict. for 11 is economy. would it be an absolute disaster? that would be there already? very little resources to fund the current displacement crisis that we're dealing with. let's take 11 on the health care system for instance. i mean, when the last more happened with between israel and his beloved 2006, there were about 13000 hospital beds. now we're down to 8000 as lots of medical professionals already left the country because because of the financial crisis. so we don't have the capacity to deal with a prolong for a prolonged world. ready push level and further into poverty, exacerbate food insecurity deep in any quality. and the real see, or um, i think among many is that civil strife could emerge. estate structure is continues

to deteriorate and tensions build between communities. i mean, this is including the syrian refugee community, which is often gate code for the failings of the government, i think is what is really the bedding on obviously, nothing. yeah. who is playing for time? he doesn't have a very good situation on his hands. i mean military spending israel's up a 100 percent us before this one. if you can imagine how much it will increase, i don't think these rarely is really understand the cost and they will have to bear . and i think this is part of newton. yeah. who's calculations as well, and he's thinking, you know, if i can, if i can, so internal strikes and loving on, then it has a level meal to internal pressures and, and, and that makes the sessions at the negotiating table. and i think this is the game that the sick game that's being played right now. but i also think the lebanese understand this, and that will help to, to proceed internal strife. uh, well, hopefully a negotiated settlement comes to pass, but i fear that the economic recovery 11 will be much higher when the dust settles

because you have a lot more ground to today to get back to 0 and then to actually recover. right. so the government will agree, does not really have the funds or the resources to deal with a humanitarian crisis. what about a plan, a place to secure the essential needs of its people? does it have one as well? i have to say for the 1st time in a long time, let me the door is seemed somewhat prepared. they had a year to prepare their shelters in place for round the 1000000 lebanese at the moment. um that means and syrian refugees and also posted investigates that have been in the country since the creation of israel in 1948. but they need about a $100000000.00 a month as a standard. and they don't have that money at food and medicine and stuff filed for about 5 to 6 months. but the problem is, the diesel reserves are available for about 4 to 6 weeks. and if you, if you put that together, what you're looking at is

a country that is ill prepared to deal with in with increased demand in it for a long conflict. and despite the start filing efforts, i think it won't be enough to it simply, there simply isn't enough money. there simply isn't enough resources. and those simply isn't enough manpower to deal with a prolonged monitoring prices and the kind of good stuff to you send me that he thinks of data being with us. thank you. the use of pages and walkie talkies and coordinates of explosions in lebanon has drawn scrutiny. so security and global supply chains, when it's unclear how the device is exploded, lebanese officials accused israel of tempering with them. i always say that people's trust in the electronic devices is taking a hit off to the incidence. they expect the governments to restrict the flow of sensitive technology and encourage companies to move manufacturing closer to home. a left leaning note to come out of this america has been sworn in as ro,

lancoste tents president his election was the 1st to be held since mass protests and seated cause by roger parks. in 2022. i'll just rank us off of this was economic crisis. this one ica has promised to crack down on corruption and to continue the bailout deal struck with the international monetary fund. he's also pledged to reduce the impact of its a static images on the countries forest. difficult times overhead for the british economy, that's the warning from the british prime. it is step, but keeps tom as a show of the british people that he won't go down the road of a stereotype. despite planned bunch of constant tex wise's, he assisted the tough decisions when in the end lead to what he called a national renewal during the labor annual policy conference, the gathering was aimed at striking a more positive note of his government was accused of due monitoring of the state of the economy, the p. m, has been on the pressure of the decision to limit when to fuel payments to the elderly, and his use of donations for clothing of hospitality. let's hear what he had to say

. so we've called the national review all the time and we will we will move along is not recommended me clear out the full review since the foundation level tomorrow they took place at work and broke. the law group with we're starting with was with us the java we have served not working for long 2 years, but are people buying into storms promises? let's see what some british people think. i don't think that's pretty good in sales yet because they've only been in office for a very short time. and obviously to a piece to everyone can say that they're going to do a lot of things and whether they do those things is a whole not the full game. so we're now gonna have to wait for at least 2 years to see how it helps the economy. and so it helps the british, the people. yeah, it's a waiting game. i'm basically, they're all the same. say that's quite

a mess. the previous part is not a not labor party behind and the country is financially strange. so it's gonna take tough decisions to flight. they said, raising taxes. and that would be an obvious one, raising taxes and people that can afford it. not on the people that can to in order to return the services that are badly needed all through the cry museum and the nepotism guy at home on where i live in one state. there's a guy who jung cool. i used to be more like when say, and he's just defend most of the last minute. his wife is able to use sears to rice who brings so when he goes to the hassle moves the december for his new year's arms, they begin for independence. like to sign in. that sounds sort of ap flight, but absolutely disgusting. what you've done to that, what i spent 2 days is absolutely more of full, full size and pat full size and tape the a. yeah. and it's for it. he's if he's going to be for 5 years,

is $20000.00. joining us not from london is need us get our chief executive epicenter, the economics and business research could help you with this data. the new government claims, as a giant fiscal hole in the u. k. that needs plugging is the and who's responsible for that. but, but the labor government is planning the previous conservative administration as well. is there a physical hole? yes, there is. how large it is. it is a very subjective depth to them because the way something like that is calculated is very, very sensitive to forecasts. and in the case case, like the forecasts from b o, b r, which sort of an independent party a looking at the u. k. economy and sort of a, a watchdog really operating alongside the government and to but i think probably the one of the biggest for me take away from the labor party conferences. is that sort of the definition at how you look at the fiscal whole?

the fiscal gap might change because it is actually something that is a self imposed rule in a health imposed definition. so the government has this co, not only to raise taxes to reallocate or cut spending to address the physical situation, but they actually more fundamentally, also have the ability to say, we don't have to stick to these rules here as an alternative set of rules. and that is what the new target will be. so that's why it's very difficult for you how the fiscal, how large the fiscal whole a is. it's very subject subject to forecast. and also the definition actually might change as in bought drugs. the prime minister has a lot of other uncomfortable budgets to come in a months time. is he going about things the white way? do you think he's wanting the public that but things will need to get tough at all . the plans that have been room at the white ones you think to fix this fiscal whole. so there is definitely

a lot of very careful messaging going on. um we just heard into the program and i fully agree with is that the labor conference actually saw a pretty market shift in tone before the conference. there was quite a lot of stark negativity, some of which warranted but some of it slightly overblown. for example, a couple of weeks ago we had the comment from the chancellor that we are possibly facing a loss of confidence in the pound. i think remarks like that haven't been especially helpful because they're not particularly rooted in, in reality, i do think on the other hand, it is fair to say that the country is not in a particularly strong position economically. but what i have liked seeing of the conference is at the shift seems to be moving on, not just from how do we in the immediate future or raise taxes. how do we improve the fiscal positioning? but actually, how do we stimulate growth? because that is what the big question should be. if you have

a higher economic growth, you will have higher tax in taking even at current rates of taxation. and that is why the big question should be not just how do we change the taxation in spending. but how do we stimulate growth, and that is what i will be hoping to see more about that as well. so. so how does the private assistant be that course, i mean, did use for say, perhaps price of ties with, with europe sometime during, during this part of it, that would help surely wouldn't that often breaks it and then we'll help. i think the timeline is on our own and how it will help our are quite, quite questionable, as we've seen in the aftermath of brags, it's changing long established trade practices can take quite a while. so it's not sort of just the pendulum to can now the canals swing back, things that have changed in the after amount of breaks that i don't think can very quickly be, be reversed. i think probably more area that the new government is looking at and where they've really pinned a lot of their hopes in terms of stimulated growth is planning, reform, building,

housing, a key infrastructure. i think that is also what is going to be probably use as a justification to tinker with the fiscal rules that it's ok to have a more like a relaxed set of targets if it's going to the building houses building infrastructure. so i think sort of trying to instigate more of a construction more about building via the planning reform is probably the big ticket policy that the government is taking its hopes on been a really good story to you on counting the cost. many thanks indeed for being with us. thank you. and that's all show for this week. if you'd like to get in touch with us and comments on anything that you've seen, i'm at a sending an on x. try to remember to use the hash tag h a c t c o, you could trumps a line counting the cost of out as 0, don't net as an email address, as always, press plenty more few online at elder 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight

to a page that you'll find the individual reports links at the top edition speed to capture that that is a, this edition of counting the cost i made for you instead of going from the team here. and so how, thanks for being with us, the news i was a 0. this next it is really forces to silence the truth and be occupied. westbank storming and shutting down houses 00 in ramallah is targeting of donors the r as in years, a few minutes. the beginning of the done as well as seen in donors live and he's done it is. i'll just, you, i don't. and it's another example of journalists not being allowed to do their work in this concept. big waters, me that journalist, the text, everything is being undermined by government details here with every 3rd grade to tear with use of to that address here. and to authoration has read,

journalism is not a crime for pressing its peace throughout the year of war on because with this follows that got them. half of cisco is the content creator of names, convention little cups of rescue work or who i want to get you the most stuff with you. would you, me and the child, the devastation visit up on that. and they're going to describe the decisions. because no, we're safe or not just a, you know, we know what's happening in our region. we know how to get to places that others can know as far as instead of going or the way that you tell the story is what can make a difference. since its inception, in 1961, the quite fund has been supporting people's livelihoods, and over 100 countries, by funding projects in an array of sectors ranging from

infrastructure to health and education. these initiatives ultimately help to eradicate poverty and promote sustainable development. the on the hello on elizabeth donovan. this has been news our life from the coming up in the next 16 minutes. is there any media reporting engine song just being evacuated from the region was 11 on as paula says, it repel. does really feel so strong and so try to town. yvonne finds the $200.00 missiles at this route according to the soft defense.