steve conway holds in london to stay just set and i'll be challenging my guests in front of a live audience on immigration. populism. and the rise of the far right and the test. and discovering what a 2nd presidential term for donald trump might look like. you are at the head without is it the benjamin netanyahu says iran will pay for it. smith solid. well tyrone tresses, a crushing responsive israel, his back phones bullets and miss solves and dogs at 11 and. and it's really just the middle east, inching closer to full blown hall. this is inside story, the

other there and welcome to the program on the clock. so iran has kind of the major missile attack on israel. in retaliation, it says to the beginning of the leaders of hezbollah and a mass, as well as a senior commander of the revolutionary god. israel says it is set to most of the around 200 missiles with the help with the united states will of lead is urging both sides to step back from the brink of a regional role. but israel has promised to respond warning around will pay for what it describes as a big mistake. so what was that response? look like? and often nearly a year of war on garza and a campaign of air raids and 11 in israel, able to fight on a 3rd front. we'll discuss that a more with i guess. for the 1st this report, proof idea, call these were the skies above israel's largest city, tennessee, on tuesday night, around fire nearly 200 missiles. israel says most were intercepted,

but several tier to get through the one landing near the headquarters of the most at intelligence agency, to rance, as the attack was in response to the assassinations of hezbollah leader house on those roll out into a mass political chief smith and the whole, as well as the killing of several senior rainy and military officers, and a statement president must suited possess can said this action was in defense of a reigning interest and citizens. prime minister netanyahu should know that around is not war. mongering will stand firmly against any threat. this is just a glimpse of our capabilities. do not engage in conflict with the right to run. people came out to the streets to celebrate leaders there have promised and even larger strikes if israel response and israel has pledged to do just that. you want us go around, made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it. and we still, you're writing writing doesn't understand that determination to defend ourselves or our resolve to strike back. it makes some assaults were intercepted with the help

of jordan and the united states, which has been anticipating via seems a gen list and all 3 of the book, israel and the quest for permanence in the london is roxanne farm and farm in who's a professor of modern, middle east politics at the university of cambridge and in berlin is a julian bond, stacy, who is the director of the middle east and north africa program as a year, a pin council for 4 on relations. hello o dot. and i'd like to talk with you if i'm a time perry and telling me that there's a piece that you wrote to, i'm guessing it must be in pretty soon off to the rainy and attacks last night, laying out 3 possible causes of action. and i think it'll help all discussion if i just very quickly go through them one more symbolic response against iran at taking into account the fact that iran did telegraphy attack and know is ready lives with last to a tactical strike on the wrong, perhaps against oral installations forcing around to reconsider for the retaliation

or 3. a 3rd policy said an attempt to give a whole the regions balance of power where israel might use bunker busting bombs to cripple around nuclear facilities. destroyed oil facilities, blockade port, which would have cost. and my was a bring with it in place it danger of the was spreading further afield. of those 3 done, perry at which do you think is the most likely? it all depends on what happens behind closed doors and talks with the americans who display uh, protestations i think are pretty closely um uh, aligned with this rule and probably coordinated with this real if these rarely is um, extra lee americans, incredible problems of a, of a paradigm shift, these are the around and for support and their project to eliminate that as well as threats and 11 on what you're saying. frankly, the favorites 11 on then, then they might suffice with a symbolic response, not the of my 3. i really discount the possibility of 0 response, because there is

a feeling, a strong in israel that you just can't absorb 200 ballistic missiles. one of those can concentrated missile tags, i think in the history of warfare and, and do nothing. but not only because you know of the school yard and from pile motions of petty revenge, because because doing nothing would encourage further, such aggression understand was aware of narratives here. but from, from israel's perspective around has no business surrounding it with proxy malicious of making. so much chaos on its borders or firing rockets that is major cities. so israel feels aggrieved. and when the countries agree, they might react badly. roxanne, from and from in, when iran made the calculation to find those missiles yesterday they will have tried. you seem to make an educated guess on around, on israel, on israel's likely response. how do you think they think israel will respond?

well, i think they were very lucky related and being sure to avoid civilian casualties. i think that's been one of the reasons why in this war, israel has been condemned for the way that it has conducted as far as the degree of civilian casualties. so iran has attempted to distinguish its actions as quite different than its rails. and i think that it has also calculated not just israel's response, but the way that the other area of the neighborhood would respond. in other words, those that are in the golf, turkey, and egypt for example, which are a little by little what iran hopes is, are coming together to create or the as long as the front, if you will, against the attacks by israel in both lab and on and on god's us,

so i think it expects a retaliation. i think that's what we saw the 1st time around in april. but because these were targeted very much at the military targets the response impulse will, i imagine not be one that will draw the united states into a large or war. and as you look at it very briefly, what's your sense? would it be which of those 3 would it be a most important respond to technical strike or all that with a you know, an attempt to have a hold of region architecture? well, i think that it's been generally considered the to hit a wrong about nuclear facilities. is a huge gamble for israel, despite the fact that it has a history of wiping out other countries, nuclear facilities because they are located deep inside iran. and because there are so many of them. so i think probably my feeling is that there will be a ball and response, but one that perhaps is bigger than the last of the dynamic response in, in april,

june. and i'm going to come to you in just a 2nd but, and he wants to jump him. well, yeah i, i certainly understand the, the, the, the, the important is that no one is still in his real name is frankly amazing. and i think testamentary many things, including the american assistance, the, the, the, the price of quality of israel, their defenses. and, and in fact, it ran appears indeed to have tried to limited sounds, success by telegraphing what it was going to do to the americans and the russians. that said, the idea that around targeted the military bases with respect to my colleague in london. it's pretty close to absurd. i was in the center of tell of the contribution of 3000000 people and there were intersection going on over my head. now, you can say it's based the military headquarters, right in the center tells you you sure. you can say that you can say the one, the bomb, the landed on the hercules beach was the, you know, half mile away from one of the most odd headquarters. and he could pretend that

thrilled in the trash to restaurants and landed closest to a major condominium apartment building there. there's no way you can say they targeted only military bases. the, the isolated, based on the website to come back. does nothing done because i'm just coming back to that very briefly, very briefly, rocks and then we'll come back to us. that works. i'm very confused about and then i must move on to junior. yes, i think the facts speak for themselves and that there were no civilian casualties to send over $200.00 plus missiles of the caliber the wrong did. it means that it was very carefully calibrated, not create civilian casual. okay, and they see what is your sense then of what path israel will take. it's a retaliation that to what extent will they go to the do more the night just following me the for the past fire and it was more of a symbolic response. i didn't get to yahoo is made clear that what we should expect

to be more than 5 to this time around. 200 ballistic missiles is the final serious attack that happened in april. i let me go to this coming to the backdoor of israel seating more confident and aggressive. i think that in a moment in the course of this conflict in terms of its ability to go off the there, are you seeing that take serious measures against the law in many ways to kind of hating the top leadership of the movement and the real sense i think coming out of the, this is a moment remaining the region. and by that i mean, really frightening iran in a more powerful way that knocks out that strategic capabilities. and i think the danger is that the american seemed to be on board with this. we sort of the political yesterday and what senior boy and then administrator an official receiving the encouraging israel and all these lines of i'm very worried things there are dangerous illusion. we've seen multiple attempts over the last 25 years

to remain in the middle east and on every occasion that leads to more complex destruction and state plans. and i don't think the radians will not respond to the most terrorist attack in kind. so with the escalation letter right now, it doesn't have to be any serious. all right. all right, well, we'll try and discuss to a little bit to see what, what potential there is for an off front, but done at the former is really prime minister, enough tati. bennett, he tweeted earlier that israel has now it's greatest opportunity in 50 is to change the face of the middle east. we must act now. he said to destroy ron's nuclear program. it's central energy facilities. and to frankly cripple this terrorist regime, we have the justification. he said, we have the tools, that's a format prime minister at done saying the moment is now the appetite is pretty evident that in israel, you know, look, you have to understand is rule is a deeply defined society as regards what to do with the palestinians. and oh,

should there be a state in westbank, you know, a few miles from tell even jerusalem perhaps being taken over by hamas. these are complex issues where israel's badly divided and nothing else. policies are not popular. but iran's chaos project in the region supported for the hotels and which it brought a half 1000000 casualties. the i'm in support for his law that i believe is the tested by most lebanese support for this year and malicious interact call. and especially the nuclear program, which is not an innocent nuclear program by brands. this is a nuclear program run by an aggressive theocracy that has a more than a hint of their wants to destroy israel. this stuff is a basically a conceptual and it's conceptual. and israel, the, this, this whole thing is unacceptable now, indeed for a country of 10000000 and take all the country of almost a 100000000, is generally not that great an idea. and there is respect for rand's ability to defend itself, or at least defend this right, to commit this aggression. so i think israel is mother has been careful about

taking on a ran directly. but, but the idea that if at all possible, the, a non democratic a to tell jerry and the accuracy in rand must somehow be compelled to end. what i'm calling it's chaos project that's pretty popular. and the question becomes a practical one. that whether you know, what is the cost can inconceivably work? and as i suggested in my 1st response, i think much will depend on whether they think they can get the americans behind them. and there is a ticking clock that is around the effort to achieve a nuclear weapon, at which point it will be very possible uh, very difficult and perhaps impossible to deter. now you can talk about escalation all i want. would you have told winston churchill in 194041 not to escalate? i mean there's, there's a point where let me, let me say, have somebody call to declare that. i mean that we must move on because we, we don't have a great deal of time set roxanne, that 1st we'll just come back to that to and talk to

a little bit about the what done was saying about this so that you know, the shadow that then you can project to ostracize israel in the eyes of many elements of the international committee. if i look on i think it certainly is. a concern, i think is real government has utterly failed and public diplomacy. i don't think i think they've conducted themselves or re cleverly and cause all by the way the tests and goals are not rising attractive in the far, far less rate than before. it's very low level where the, i don't think is real, the talking, it's neighbors. i think is reality is attacking his ball and loving on. i think israel feels agreed by uh, by what uh, she correctly sizes is a bits of band a mint and much of global public opinion. but they, they mostly care about what the us to us us appears to be behind them and to, to underscore whereas israel's policy is basically the palestinians, or do it in my personal opinion. misguided the, to the point of suicide all in the west bank in particular,

this issue with removing is smaller from whether or not i think is real things. and the, this is not going to be so one popular and the world most of saudi arabia has been holding up 811 on because of his father's influence 11 on there's a lot of good that's gonna be showered 11 on a minute. visible is gone. and i know from experience with lemonade is not just experience on opposition, but just looking to use the word not necessarily. she hides who support is essentially bought an engineer in by around the model and helped me go to move it on. we have to move it on every to sleep and we have to do, we need to move the conversation on please let's we've only got 10 minutes left. we've already yet spend a lot of time on this. so julian, and 1st of all done, it should just say the numbers of people die in gaza is still going up at the right . it is an incredibly full, dangerous time. if israel does choose route 3, which is targeting nuclear facilities and crippling all installations and so forth,

how dangerous a moment is this for the? well, it obviously it is usually dangerous. i think it's listed as well. the, the, the kind of your option to is, is quite easily attracted option 3 and, you know, we, we, we stop by and baffle in terms of attacks. and i think quite quickly and done something. why the, obviously a conflict that impulse behind the time is the symbol for the companies in conflict between israel under runs, uh, would be incredibly, were in serious. we could see serious and wind raging as have right now. but i think we're probably on the playing. why wrong could still due to the capability or has the wider attacks and israel, israel has phase attacks from his lot since october 8th, when the last load used as high uh, uh, according to you know, long distance miss out of the country. obviously, the iran has and i apologize and syria and iraq,

yemen wants to go to verification. the energy model ramifications. there are some limitations that is romando off at roswell facilities are running fine. might have indicated the other region while facilities to ensure that everyone pays the price . so clearly we should be very worried. there are no, as a great consequences to this in terms of the amount of their softer and that these day by station on the risk of nuclear proliferation. um, so i don't think this is something to be taken lightly, and i do think that needs to be model serious to try and get creating around. yeah . which in my mind doesn't involve preventing these ratings from doing something much more serious at this moment. in the bottom is roxan, where is the offer up as far as your consent as well. one of the things i wanted to mention, but there's also something that the for administer from kind of dimensions yesterday

that there are 2 other great powers that should possibly be more involved. and i would say russia already is more involved. the russian prime minister visited the wrong the morning before the, the launch of its missiles against israel and say that is real, she's not get involved in loveland on it should withdraw. and so it's obviously we're getting to use its voice in terms of discussing this region and in has been the one that has applied to the wrong, whatever for, and of munitions it has. and so we're seeing and some sense, a balance by russia against america in this. and i think certainly the chinese or looking in with it with interest. and i think it would be wiser for us to look at this as having global implications. i completely agree with my colleague in europe, that this is something that possibly without us,

even being aware of as back in the, into a much larger war. if, if the united states should get involved, if you run retaliates greater uh, with greater intensity, this could really become for the 1st time i've seen that this could become considerably larger in scope. time period. both china and russia have a strategic relationship, of course, with their on and, and they could easily get sweats up and all of this and that has very serious implications. doesn't look i, i certainly agree this is real big actually ran and the result isn't even a bigger action us gets pulled in the central solar in the persian gulf of china and rush. it can be done to the of the anti with taiwan and the brain and you're looking at possibly world war 3. i don't on, in any way i'm, i'm, i might not thoughts, sanguine about all as i, i personally hope that is real. does mileage one that was funds symbolically but, but i can't do nothing but i also have written in the past that the world needs to

stop tolerating the rank chaos products. and i think it's rule will be in the background asking the us and the you and they go to problem is that they will shortly after the us selection good around and say no more proxies, no more nukes, no. were long range rockets, no more insanity. all single phase consequences, the weather, those evolve. one can't get sports or degrading it's oil installations or bunker bus thing. it's nuclear program. i don't know, but i think the us might, might actually do this because there's a sticking clock with the nuclear rainy. the turn is coming up and the idea, the rush is a good faith and through lockets are, or the a ran is somehow a positive player in the middle east, guys, friends on this panel. it's absurd. okay, so the to the, to me, i'll maybe, julian, where is the parts where are the possible days i'm not to go national interviewing in the solution is the us

we have seen the us offering for support for israel both in terms of is offensive, but also in terms of netanyahu's were peach and fame years to engage with a virus. do you find out that you know, like something that is a core bit ongoing problem, whether we like it well not. the solution towards the original destination is, is a fish, very god of we. then we have to deal with the wider vacations, the challenges and threat 1st by ron and his regional us. but the 1st step i thing is to rein in israel aspect reactions. god, it is the one that is now taking the site to has blah 11 on and then the last latrice happened. and i think until the item is prepared to put pressure under that pressure, we aren't going to see it. all right. it is a rocks on diplomacy, has abjectly failed on gauze, as so far so in your view, as you observe the situation and the danger that it presents. do you think that the

united states is capable at if it has the will of dissuading benjamin netanyahu from this cause that he seems determined to proceed? well, up until now nothing that the united states has suggested or appeared to be promoting has been adopted by the israeli government. certainly no seats fire plan and also buying. and he has frequently noted that he's been working tirelessly to, to find a diplomatic solution. i think that it's clear, there hasn't been one that has even been tried. so i think the, there's the result at the moment is to show that the united states either don't have the influence or it has it is lacking the well. and i think that in some sense we can see the 2nd part as much it play that the, it's an election year. it is not in many ways in the interest, certainly of the,

the, the big cala, harris and by and we are administration to, to take a strong steps at this point. they are in need of much of the support that they can get and to keep the focus on domestic politics. so i think it certainly netanyahu sees an opening for at least until the time of the election in order to do an escalate. tori move because i don't think anything is going to be really big started from washington. okay, and done perry on the us selection that certainly does not belong to go until that happens. it is this. how do you think is playing out and nothing you all his mind? yeah, i think you certainly have time to control them because the us is terrified the major escalations. so they, they, they might go along with a minor one. they don't want to be seen as fighting with israel, that would harm they would choose in pennsylvania and elsewhere. they don't want to

be saying this too much supporting israel in an escalation that would harm the muslims in michigan. so that's a total wedge issue in the us in the us. we'd like for all this to go away. but i think part of the come complexity here is uh, even though something maybe sanguine about a so called c as far as the lease. i'm also power and gaza israel as trouble with that scenario and so does the u. s. which is why they haven't that much pressure of israel. there's this notion and that is real refuse of the ceasefire because what they liked to fight, let me assure you they don't. the issue is they that they, they're in a pickle and they're not sure what more to do to get home. austin has all of the go away. now both of these groups are funded and go to byron and therefore it ran is very much involved in the aggression against israel. it's complicated and there's not a lot of rights and wrongs, but i are just a not be my ease about about the, you know, groups like come off as well in the who these, these are not good guys, they want piece. so we gotta, we have a problem and requires cleverness and the strategy and maybe some given decency as

well. yes, the complexity is very, very real. we're out of time. the coming hours and days will indeed be very telling, but thank you for joining us. thank you. to i guess, done, perry roxanne farm in finance. and julian bond stacey, and it's an attack on the world's right to know the truth must be protected and heard. and the stories of real people must be told. journalism is not a crime oppressing it or the us elections are well under way. youngsters are at the forefront simsi animal. i know that the biggest building blocks in american history right now. what can their generations swing the results? we want to turn our social media habits into action on the one with the people in power travels through 3 crucial states. they're coming out. now imagine what's gonna happen november 5th. we're setting the framework right,

kenzie and the race for the white house on a jersey the we are the ones traveling the extra mile. there are other media don't go. we go there and we give them a chance to tell the story. as the world economy, those strikes are those with a strong result. indonesia is where such resolve about the right place for your business to get off the ground. right. otherwise with this strategic downstream industry on your better tomorrow the. the

hello, i'm around and why is the welcome to the news? our live from doha. coming up in the next 60 minutes. it's i signed the stop, the sickening cycle of escalation up that escalation. nephew's leaving the people of the me of the lease side over the police, the united nations secretary general coles on the security council to try and stop the escalating israel has the law conflicts.