a lot so you can just be fine. collect the bodies of the policy, the and the $365.00 days of genocide in gosh, we $165.00 days. unrelenting is waiting from vault, starting from october. the 4th in a week of special reports, all just the remarks one year of genesis in, gosh, benjamin netanyahu says iran will pay for it. smith solid. well tyrone tresses, a crushing responsive israel, his palms bullets, and miss owls and dogs at 11. and, and is this the middle east inching closer to full blown hall? this is inside story, the

other there and welcome to the program on the clock. so iran has carried out to major missile attack on israel in retaliation. it says to the beginning of the leaders of hezbollah and a mass, as well as a senior commander of the revolutionary god. israel says it is set to most of the around 200 missiles with the help of the united states will of lead is urging both sides to step back from the brink of a regional role. but israel has promised to respond warning around will pay for what it describes as a big mistake. so what would that response look like? and often nearly a year of war on garza and a campaign of air raids and 11 israel able to fight on a 3rd front. we'll discuss that a more with, i guess. but 1st, this report from friday, i call these, with the skies above israel's largest city, tennessee, on tuesday nights around fire. nearly 200 miss of israel says most were intercepted,

but several appeared to get through. one landing near the headquarters of the most, at intelligence agency to ran since the attack was in response to the assassinations of hezbollah leader. how son, that's rela, until mass political change. it smells any at all, as well as the killing of several senior rainy and military officers. and a statement president my suited possess can said this action was in defense of a reigning interest and citizens prime minister and nothing. yeah, it should know that around is not war. mongering will stand firmly against any threat. this is just a glimpse of our capabilities. do not engage in conflict with the right to run. people came out to the streets to celebrate leaders. there have promised and even larger striking is israel responds and israel has pledged to do just that. you want us go around, made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it. tell me, still your writing writing doesn't understand a determination to defend ourselves or our resolve to strike back. it makes some

assaults were intercepted with the help of jordan and the united states, which has been anticipating dsl. the tech piers have defeated an ineffective and this is testament is rarely, military capability and us. and i'm also also a testament to the tests of planning between the united states and israel. dentist, fate and defend against praise of attacks and expect president fighting has reaffirmed americans, iron clad support for israel, even as it rebuffs washington's calls for a cease fire and gaza. 11 or other were leaders are urging the country to step back from the brink of a regional war, but was daily bombardment of guys the ground troops and 11 on the flags to strike around. not even israel's closest allies, if we're able to deter it from escalating this concept. pretty a car, which is 0 for insightsquared the.

okay, let's take this on. let's bring a guess from tel aviv. we are joined by don perry who's a jen list and all 3 of the book israel and the quest for permanence in london is roxanne farm. and from in who's a professor of modern, middle east politics at the university of cambridge and in berlin is a julian bond, stacy, who is the director of the middle east and north africa program. i think you were a pen council for, for on relations. hello o at the time i'd like to talk with you. if i'm age, i'm perry and telling me that there's a piece that you wrote to. i'm guessing it must be in pretty soon off to the rainy and attacks last night laying out 3 possible causes of action. and i think it's, it'll help our discussion if i just very quickly go through them one more symbolic response against iran at taking into account the fact that iran did telegraphy attack and know is right, he lives with last to a tactical strike on the wrong perhaps against orland installations forcing around

to reconsider the retaliation or 3 foot pa few said an attempt to over hold the regions balance of power where israel might use bunk, combusting bombs to cripple or runs nuclear facilities, destroyed oil facilities, blockade port, which would have cost and my was a bring with it in place it danger of the was spreading further afield. of those 3 done, perry at which do you think is the most likely? it all depends on what happens behind closed doors and talks with the americans who display protestations, i think are pretty closely aligned with this rule and probably coordinated with this rule. if these really is um, extra 20 americans, incredible problems of a, of a paradigm shift. these will be around and for support in their project to eliminate that as well as threats and loving on what you're saying. frankly, the favorites 11 on the name might suffice with a symbolic response. not that of my 3,

i really discount the possibility of 0 response because there is a feeling, a strong enough. the real that you just can't absorb 200 ballistic missiles. one of those can concentrated missile tags, i think in the history of warfare and, and do nothing. but not only because you know of the school yard and from pile motions of petty revenge. but because, because doing nothing would encourage for such aggression understand was aware of narratives or, but from, from israel's perspective, moran has no business surrounding it with proxy malicious or from anything so much chaos on its borders or firing rockets that is major cities. so israel feels aggrieved and when the countries agree, they might react badly. roxanne, from and from in, when iran made the calculation to find those missiles yesterday they will have tried. you seem to make an educated guess on around, on israel, on israel's likely response. how do you think they think israel will respond as

well? i think they were very calculated in being sure to avoid civilian casualties. i think that's been one of the reasons why in this war, israel has been condemned for the way that it has conducted as far as the degree of civilian casualties. so iran has attempted to distinguish its actions as quite different than is rails. and i think that it has also. busy calculated not just israel's response, but the way that the other area of the neighborhood would respond. in other words, those that are in the golf, turkey, and egypt for example, which are little by little what the brawn hopes is, are coming together to create any, as long as the front, if you will, against the attacks by israel in both lab and on. and on god's us,

so i think it expects a retaliation. i think that's what we saw the 1st time around in april. but because these were targeted very much at the military targets the response impulse will, i imagine not be one that will draw the united states into a larger war. and as you look at it very briefly, what's your sense? would it be? which of those 3 would it be a most important response to technical strike? will all that with a you know, an attempt to have a hold of region architecture? well i think that it's been generally considered the to hit a wrong sup uh nuclear facilities is a huge gamble. busy for israel, despite the fact that it has a history of wiping out other countries, nuclear facilities because they are located deep inside iran. and because there are so many of them. so i think probably my feeling is that there will be

a ball in response. but one that perhaps is bigger than the last of the dynamic response in, in april, at gmail. i'm going to come to you in just a 2nd, but he wants to jump in. well yeah i, i certainly understand that the, the, the, the important is that, and i went to school and his real name is frankly amazing. and i think testament to many things, including the american assistance, the, the, the, the price of quality is real, their defenses. and, and the fact that it ran appears indeed to have tried to limit it sounds success by telegraphing what it was going to do to the americans on the russians. that said, the idea that around targeted the military bases with respect to my colleague in london. it's pretty close to absurd. i was in the center of tell of the contribution to 3000000 people and there were interests actually gone over my head . now you can say it's based on military headquarters right in the center and tell the sure you can say that you can say the one, the bottom that landed on the hertz lay the beach was the, you know,

half mile away from one of the most odd headquarters and he could pretend not thrilled in the trash to restaurants and landed closest to a major condominium apartment building there. there's no way you can say they targeted only military base. is the the isolated based on the website to come back . does nothing done because i'm just coming back to that very briefly, very briefly, rocks and then we'll come back to the 2nd works. i'm very proud of. is that and then i must move on to junior. yes, i think the facts speak for themselves and that there were no civilian casualties and to send over $200.00 plus missiles of the caliber the wrong did. it means that it was very carefully calibrated not to create civilian casualties. okay, the problem that you see, what is your sense then of what path israel will take a to retaliation to, to what extent will they go to the do more the my do the following me the for the past firewall that was more of

a symbolic response. i didn't get to yahoo is made clear that what we should expect to be more than 5 to this time around. 200 ballistic missiles is the final serious attack that happened in april. i like the to come to the back door of israel, feeling more confident and aggressive. i think that in a moment in the course of it conflict in terms of its ability to go off the, there are already seen them take serious measures against the law in many ways to kind of hating the top leadership of the movement and the real sense i think coming out of the, this is a moment remaining the region and by that they mean really frightening iran in a more powerful way that knocked out that strategic capabilities. and i think the danger is the americans seem to be on board with this. we sort of the political yesterday and what senior boy and then in ministration official receiving the encouraging israel and all the lines of i'm very worried things. there are gains

this illusion. we've seen multiple attempts over the last 25 years to remain amenities of every occasion. that leads to more complex destruct wednesday class, and i don't think the radians will not respond to the most serious attack in con. so with the escalation letter right now, it doesn't have to be any serious bar. all right, well we'll try and discuss that little bit to see what, what potential there is for an affront, but done at the former is really prime minister enough tardy. bennett, he tweeted earlier that israel has now it's greatest opportunity and 50 is to change the face of the middle east. we must act now. he said to destroy runs nuclear program. it's central energy facilities. and to frankly cripple this terrace regime, we have the justification. he said, we have the tools. that's a format. prime minister at done saying the moment is now the appetite is pretty evident that in israel, you know, look, you have to understand is rule is

a deeply divided society as regards what to do with the palestinians. and oh, should there be a state in the west bank or you know, a few miles from television, jerusalem, perhaps being taken over by hamas. these are complex issues where israel's badly divided and nothing else. policies are not popular. but iran's chaos project in the region supported for the hotels in which it brought a half 1000000 casualties to him and support for his boss that i believe is the tested by most let them use a support for this year and malicious interact call. and especially the, the nuclear program, which is not an innocent nuclear program by brands. this is a nuclear program run by an aggressive theocracy that has little more than to enter their wants to destroy israel. this stuff is a basically a conceptual and it's conceptual. and israel, the, this, this whole thing is unacceptable now indeed for a country of 10000000 to take all the country of almost a 100000000 is generally not that great an idea. and there is respect for random delete to defend itself or at least defend its right to commit this aggression. so

i think is really is not a, has been careful about taking on a ran directly. but, but the idea that if at all possible of the a non democratic a to tell jerry and the accuracy in rand must somehow be compelled to em. what i'm calling it's house project that's pretty popular. and the question becomes a practical one that with you know, what is the cost can inconceivably work? and as i suggested in my 1st response, i think much will depend on whether they think they can get the americans behind them. and there is a ticking clock that is the rams. the effort to achieve a nuclear weapon, at which point it will be very impossible, very difficult, and perhaps impossible to deter. now you can talk about a solution. all i want would you have told winston churchill in 194041 not to escalate? i mean there's, there's a point where let me, let me say the call to declare that. i mean it, we must move on because we,

we don't have a great deal of time set rocks on that 1st. we'll just come back to that to and talk to a little bit about the, what done was saying about this. so that you know, the shadow then you can project as well. i think that and i certainly agree with him that this war, particularly against has the law has brought many in the uh, from what we see on the outside many and the is really the community and society together. i think we're seeing polls where the support for netanyahu has risen in the way she's conducting the war. he has succeeded in taking the international gaze off of gaza despite rising desk in gaza. and i think it's extraordinary, but in many ways. likewise, we're not hearing anything about the hostages, so i think he's setting out on a much larger project. and the, the question that i would like to, to raise, and this is something that, no doubt, those in the brawn are also thinking about,

perhaps already having been in a situation like israel, in that it is alienating itself from the larger region enormously. i'd say there is a case to be made. the israel is becoming ever less absorbable in the region. and i think that that is an outcome it's got to think about it's, it's going to continue this, this campaign against not only is neighbors but against the wrong. so it gives new yes. good. yeah, no, sorry. i said, let me, i just give you the chance to come back to that and julian will come back to you at . so any concern on that, that feeling of ostracize ation that the, this ongoing violence or the ongoing route that israel is own, will continue to ostracize israel in the eyes of many elements of the international committee. if i look on, i think it certainly is a concern, i think is real government utterly failed in public diplomacy. i don't think,

i think they've conducted themselves very cleverly and cons all about the way to invest in goals are not rising attractive in those far, far less right than before is very low. love with the i don't think is real, the talking. it's neighbors. i think is real is attacking his ball and loving on. i think israel feels agreed by uh, by what uh she correctly size is um, bits, abandonment and much of global public opinion. but they mostly care about what the us to us the us appears to be behind them and to, to underscore whereas israel's policy is basically the palestinians, or do it in my personal opinion. misguided, the point of suicide all in the west bank in particular. this issue with removing is more from whether or not i think is real things and the, this is not going to be so one popular and the world most of saudi arabia has been holding up 811 on because of his father's influence 11 on there's a lot of good, that's going to be showered 11 on

a minute. his ball is gone and i know from experience with loving is not just experience on opposition, but just what it is we're not necessarily she hides who support is essentially bought an engineer in by around the model and how can we go to move it on? we have to move it on every to sleep and we have to do, we need to move the conversation on please let's we've only got 10 minutes left. we've already spend a lot of time on this. so julian, and 1st of all done, it should just say the numbers of people die and gaza is still going up at the right. it is an incredibly full, dangerous time. if israel does choose route 3, which is targeting nuclear facilities and crippling all installations and so forth, how dangerous a moment is this for the well, it obviously it is usually dangerous. i think it's listed as well with the, the, the, the kind of your option to is, is quite easily a try to talk to him through and, you know, we, we start going back and forth in terms of the tax. and i think we quite quickly.

and done something, why the obviously a conflict that impulse behind the try amenities the most are right for something conflict between israel under runs uh would be incredibly where a serious we could see serious and wind raging attacks by now. but i think we're probably on the playing why wrong could still due to the capability or has the wider attacked. and israel, israel has phase attacks from his lot since october 8th, but the used as high a quarter to you, a more long distance miss out of the country. obviously the by the iran has, i apologize, and syria and iraq, yemen points devoted ramifications and energy model. ramifications there are some dictations that is real money to off at roswell facilities are running fine. might have indicated the other region while facilities to ensure that everyone pays the

price. so clearly we should be very worried. there are no, it's a great consequences to this in terms of the humanitarian softer and the d. stay by station on the risk of nuclear proliferation. um, so i don't think this has something to be taken lightly, and i do think that needs to be model serious to try and get creating around. yeah . which in my mind doesn't involve preventing these ratings from doing something much more serious at this moment. it doesn't involve is roxan, where is the rep as far as your consent as well. one of the things i wanted to mention was there's also something that the for administer from kind of dimensions yesterday that there are 2 other great powers that should possibly be more involved . and i would say russia already is more involved. the russian prime minister visited the wrong the morning before the, the launch of its missiles against of israel and say that is real,

she's not get involved in loving on. it should withdraw. and so it's obviously beginning to use its voice in terms of discussing this region and in has been the one that has supplied iran, whatever for and of munitions it has. and so we're seeing, in some sense, a balance by russia against america, and this, and i think certainly the chinese or looking in whether it was interest and i think it would be wiser for us to look at this as having global implications. i completely agree with my colleague in europe, that this is something that possibly without us even being aware of is backing into a much larger war. if, if the united states should get involved, if you run retaliates greater uh, with greater intensity, this could really become for the 1st time i've seen that this could become considerably larger in scope. done period. both china and russia have

a strategic relationship. of course with the ron and, and they could easily get sweats up and all of this and that has very serious implications. doesn't look i, i certainly agree this is real. um, so it's a big action and i ran and the result isn't even bigger action us gets pulled in. it has interest solar in the persian gulf of china and rush. it can be done to the of the anti with taiwan and the brain. and you're looking at possibly world war 3. i don't on in any way i'm, i'm, i might not fox sanguine about all as i, i personally hope that is real. does miles you want that was ons, symbolically. but. but i, because i can't do nothing, but i also have written in the past that the world needs to stop tolerating the rank chaos products. and i think is real, will be in the background asking the us and the you and they go to problem is that they will shortly after the us selection go around and say no more proxies, no more nukes that were long range rockets,

no more to sanity all single phase consequences, the weather, those evolve one k to get sports or the grading it's oil installations or bunker bus thing. it's nuclear program. i don't know, but i think the us might, might actually do this because there's a sticking clock with the nuclear or any of the parents coming up. any idea? the rush is a good faith and through lockets are, or the around is somehow a positive player in the middle east, guys, friends on this panel. it's absurd. okay, so the, to me, i'll maybe, julian, where is the part where i hope all 3 days. i'm not to go to national interviewing in the really the matter solution is the us. we have seen the us offering full of support for israel, of both in terms of business, festive, but also in terms of mentioned, you're peach and failures to engage with a virus. do you find out that the buying something that is, of course,

been ongoing problems whether we like it or not? the solution to its original destination is, is a fish for and got a we then we have to deal with the wider vacations, the challenges and threat 1st by ron and his regional us. but the 1st step i thing is to rein in israel actually reactions to god. it is the one that is now taking the fight to has blah 11 on. and then the worst latrice happened. and i think until the items prepared to put and nothing you're not pressure under that pressure. we aren't going to see it. all right. it is, it rocks on diplomacy has abjectly failed on gauze as so far. so in your view, as you observe this situation and the danger that it presents, do you think that the united states is capable at if it has the will of dissuading benjamin netanyahu from this cause that he seems determined to proceed? well, up until now nothing that the united states has suggested or appeared to be promoting

has been adopted by the israeli government. certainly no seats fire plan and also buying. and he has frequently noted that he's been working tirelessly to, to find a diplomatic solution. i think that it's clear, there hasn't been one that has even been tried. so i think the, there's the results at the bottom it is just shows that the united states either don't have the influence or it has it is lacking the well. and i think that in some sense we can see the 2nd part as much that play that the, it's an election year. it is not in many ways in the interest, certainly of the, the, the big cala, harris and by and we are administrators and to, to take a strong steps at this point. they are in need of much of the

support that they can get and to keep the focus on domestic politics. so i think certainly netanyahu sees an opening for at least until the time of the election in order to do an escalate tour. a move because i don't think anything is going to be really big started from washington. okay. and done perry on the us selection. that certainly does not belong to go until that happens. is this how you think it's playing out and nothing? you know his mind. yeah. i think you certainly have time to control them because he was is terrified of a major escalation. so they, they, they might go along with a minor one. they don't want to be seen as fighting with israel. that would harm they would use in pennsylvania and elsewhere. they don't want to be saying this too much supporting israel in an escalation that would harm the muslims of michigan. so it's a total wage issue in the us in the us. we'd like for all this to go away, but i think part of the come complexity here is uh, even though something maybe signed with them about a so called c as far as a lease. i'm also kind of were in garza israel as trouble with that scenario. and

so it is the us, which is why they haven't that much pressure of israel. there's this notion that israel refuses to cease fire because what they like to fight. let me assure you they don't issue is they that they, they're in a pickle and they're not sure what more to do to get home. austin has all of the go away. now both of these groups are funded and go to buy ran and therefore it ran is very much involved in the aggression against israel is complicated and there's not a lot of rights and wrongs, but i are just a not be naive about about the, you know, groups like hamas, isabella, who these, these are not good guys, they want piece. so we gotta, we have a problem and requires clever and edison strategy and maybe some given decency as well. yes, the complexity is very, very real. we're out of time, the coming hours and days will indeed be very telling, but thank you for joining us. thank you to, i guess done, perry roxanne, from finance. and julian bond. stacey, and thank you to for watching. you can check out the share game whenever you like,

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limits to how far the dream contains. study in your own adventure, now counter and ways. the a single venue in doha, the top stories on elsa 0. this, our reports of fighting between is really ground troops and as well are members near the is really lebanese border, has block claims as designated at least one bomb against is really troops attempting to enter the small southern village of maroon a russ. helicopters were seen in the area with reports that they're being used to transfer as really soldiers also in the south and is really straight killed a lebanese soldier, an injured for emergency workers, one of evacuating the.