on here at the home of ethical debate, you, steve conway holds in london, stay just set. and i'll be challenging my guests in front of a live audience on immigration. populism. and the rise of the far right and the test. and discovering what a 2nd presidential term, the donald trump might look like, you are at the head without disease. is hezbollah still able to find his ran off to slay the ship? it has been weakened. the dupe says fine to his household by the inflicted serious damage on these violent tools in southern lebanon. how different on these confrontations from previous complex? this is inside, sorry. the

hello. welcome to the program on how should model is ryan has claimed a string of victor is a gas deliveries on through his butler in the past month. hundreds of strikes have targeted sites linked to the group, killing hundreds of live by the civilians in the process. has the luxury pass on the slides that along with several of a senior lead us, but as well as that it would continue the flight until as well. and it's will on garza and this by the setbacks, hezbollah has demonstrated its capabilities to his right to choose. the ministry has confirmed the counting of several soldiers since the ground operation 11 of the gun on tuesday. so he has been left with bad for a long battled with these rather, and how with face discontent among the many civilians of the prospect of another war. we'll discuss that more with our panel guess. but 1st, this report from 30 a call is really strikes time to hear and so and barriers just some of many in the past 2 weeks has been

a strong hold. it was here that the groups leader, son does rob. it was killed in a major attack last friday. it was the heaviest of many blows hezbollah sustained since october 7th, but not the 1st in september and his ready and straight killed abraham, a kill the commander of the elite rod 14th of july. as the chief of staff who i chose met the same face in september, the group suffered for it described as one of its worst intelligence breaches. thousands of communication devices across lebanon exploded and coordinated attacks, killing nearly 40 people, including children, and injuring thousands of civilians. these ready military says it's air raid campaign and southern and eastern 11 on has destroyed dozens of hezbollah targets. it's also killed hundreds of people,

but the group says it won't give up his law. what's the matter on the ad that has but it will continue with its goals and its presence in the field. the command system in the moods or hygiene will continue following your plan. our dear secretary general with the same precision and the steps you have drawn up. these randy military believes it has seriously degraded, has glass on the 9th of the grand operation inside lebanon earlier this week. but as well as operating on familiar terrain, it is already killed. several is ready soldiers. isabella was born as a guerrilla movement. and this is where it's most comfortable, quite frankly engaging in these sorts of engagements on the grounds. and these kinds of confrontations. and of course, they have a fair amount of experience of doing this in syria over the past decade. and i think that it's fine telling them and in some of the 1st encounters is ready for us

is a brand new software. a significant loss is the extent of the damage to the arm groups . capabilities isn't clear, it continues to fire missiles into israel, and it has tens of thousands of fighters. well armed with the backend of, of rent has but it says it won't surrender to israel and it's war on gaza. freddie a car which is 0 for inside story. the let's bring it all guests from they are what we are joined by sammy, off the law. who is the founding direct? tell the policy initiative an independent lebanese think tank in london. is this i see a fellow of the markham, it's kind of the middle east center and in geneva. joseph la visiting professor design university and all of the book has the law, the political economy of letters bond to you if god will come to the programs.

sammy also series of major setbacks. can hezbollah rebuild his house? well, 1st of all, thank you so much for having me on the show. as well, uh, has taken major of those in the last 2 weeks as you very well said. destination officer feet are aside from the from a is a huge ago, a senior leadership has been disseminated. does that mean? because they didn't start. and obviously the facts on is the, the pictures and all the communication channels. really beacon department. however, i think what you're seeing right now is that has, laura is ready for the war on the ground. and fox has one of the heavy proprieties for the war on the ground. it's the water if it has to be paired for, for many, many years, for body, for 18 years, like the war or the face of the one of the scene of this, which was an intelligence for at ward visits, obviously with our full arch sykes. one level and then as well as not stronger this

kind of for as well as waiting some more on the ground. and in fact, the last 2 days we've seen some major events uh to that is right in the army. so given the command and control of the system system intact and given this and able to, uh, uh, so much positives. right. and it seems from their performance on the ground that they have re thing and the initiative and the able to inflect. and she's a, some pain to that is what really are me. yes, if we go back a few weeks ago, you see that has been law, has lost its top military command. the flat shaka is top politically the has on the law is number 3. i lead khaki, the lead the shape of its elite force olive won a size, a portion of it still quite has been destroyed, according to is riley made it to a command. this is it fat to say about his beloved main goal now is to survive this

conflict without the the major blows too much. i'd called up the main objective as has been at the moment clearly that something that it will see is important. and that is necessary if it is to carry on devices in the future. but for now it's basically waging continue to wage this war. in continuation of the positions taken over the last year, which is linking the lebanese front with the comforting guys basically saying there will be a ceasefire and 11. and if there is a ceasefire in gaza, and it's not clear that at this point, israel would be satisfied even if, as well accepted a dealing college. and to return to the united nations security council resolution and $171.00 of 2006, which would see as well that withdrawal from the border area is probably aims for much more than that. now,

none the less for now i think his goal is to presuming that linkage, it means that it's, it's set itself up for more blows. i'm more attrition, but it may be that it calculates in terms of its future interests, that it's better to keep fighting back, less to be seen as having lost fundamentally its ability to defend it. okay. i'm just may then have future repercussions, but encouraging is to be able to continue with the onslaught, but also in future, leaving hezbollah more vulnerable, in terms of internal domestic, domestic, lebanese politics, joe. so the, the, the, the ground operation by these, why the, on the interest of 11 and could it be an indication that these right is now after the, after the massive ministry gains be made over the last 2 weeks. the see the potential not only to undermine has blah by the change, the political reality on the ground. yes to,

that's what it was. thank you for having me. i believe that we cannot deny that. so law is going to the most challenging time since since foundation in 85 and has been we can consider this, that as a previous tenant is testable is as confident organization. we've been organize the arm branch and therefore we can already see, as you mentioned before. ready that has been less valves or fencing offensive is already facing difficulties with center casualties. he's with has been crying in the past 2 weeks to try this for try to um, to we can consider the hezbollah in a perspective of you see of having increasingly increasing gains in the, in this, for the support of the us. they are attempting to push has a little above the tennessee river according to resolution, 17

o one. but as it was saying before, they're attempting to do much more, we can consider the has longer to dismissal, as well as the connections between the so called excess of resistance between has my law in your on basically. and we can see this also by device fx. that's how it comes up that mobile near the bottom in the past few weeks. but those are the syria, him and um, and therefore this really an attempt to, to change the dynamics region or the end up on the end of the semi. this was a so powerful military organization, even more powerful than many states, armies in the region to the point where it was very decisive when he stepped in into complex like in syria or providing significant help to the rock. do you think his below would never be the same?

again, particular one is game when it comes to is regional uh, outreach the funds all depends on the back of feelings. really what's going to happen in south lebanon when determine the future of the part the most visually and domestically? i think as my others to call names like the pilot side of the night, we bought the shape of the agent is be being determined on the performance of the has all of our horses right though, because in the case that has one of them is able to hold ground and holding. ron is a winning for has one low then doc i s i can actually challenge is or in the future and it's kind of in fact prevent it's effectively against the law. but ultimately nothing. yahoo score is not plenty of time is that there's to the north office or the caller right now has shifted the market in the last 2 months because, and that is what you decide key is they want to destroy it football. and we see

that not only and by bombing bossy date, obviously, that has all the neighborhood and coming is leader know, been going after the social services centers, which means that really are offered to try to destroy the partner. now, what then it'd be successful. again, i started seeing what determines uh, now in case they discharge as well, or the able to do it. it's like a lot of pain. and then as far as when actually a kind of move on to other countries, probably 3 on garage or with the any in fact, severe ties and corner to get on. and i think it ons retaliation. and i would put to be patient because i don't think it's the kind of a thing against destinations or family or the for a lot of but more of this, we probably think deserve its power because it, seeing from is really a talk on 11 as an attempt to call as prophecies and this sort of them know,

this also has impact. $1111.00 is domestic politics and the case because i'll actually faces the if the whole is wrong, then because of all us position in the and then what pretty much the main impact of no, it's will have a lot of charges to deal with. ok, more than what misplaced usually, if a has been a law stays relatively intact in the future. do you think it will continue to be the same way? it was for many that case perhaps the most important influence of political play 11 . because you have people saying that we have enough of was 11 and you have opponent saying that this is a positive that has been actually like a state within the state. it's very difficult to answer that question um, but i did work with a few assumptions. one is which one of which is that israel, a, sorry,

one of which is that has been the will seek to rebuild itself and replenish. and that the run will stick to hope it. with that. if are in their shoes, i would learn one less than at least that since 2006 has been electors of in preparing to fight the last war. again, i'm what it's faced is a very different kind of war. and in that sense, my view is that any is really ground defensive insides, lebanon, in a sense, it's only a tactical thing, i. e, it would seem to destroy because of a line for structure. and the south further degrades his capabilities. but the damage that has already been inflicted on his beloved leadership level command level and on his actual rocket arsenal is already so significant that i think any round operations in the south become of secondary importance, the reels about a lot of it has already been fault and lost in a way that said, as long as it has the survives at any form, it will face massive challenges working at where it security vulnerabilities were.

how much of those were informers within its own rags? how does that identify them? when communicating and meeting are both equally dangerous. now, the challenges are huge, but it has about a survivors. i imagine that it will seek to rebuild itself in a very different kind of way. instead of going for a large standing army is as it were, with tens of thousands of men, it might go for something very different. okay, to stop relying on a big rocket, ours and on relying much more precision, technologically advanced weapons of various kinds. and i think it will seek to reinvest in its alliance, is with the of using gammon and maybe ministers in iraq and so on as what do you run the one maybe use final thing to say here the flow and oldest that i think will be very different dictating is the degree to which, based on the runs protection and support among his bullet supporters, the wider constituency has been shaken and the credibility of his beloved self as

a professional organization. secure from penetration by through these things, i think i've been undermined. and it will take quite a while for a spell a and for a run to be getting that kind of ok, trust and credibility within their own constituencies, let alone among wider audience's uh, joseph. it took a lot about to around as i keep back up. but there's also syria, which has been provide a significant support for hezbollah. what does this, where does it live? syria and sylvia and president bush out an asset. yes. so the sooner his name has been nearly complete the since since the beginning of this war for the length of the set of october. this is not really a surprise regarding the syrian regime. because since 74, it's has a try not to enter into derek, mandatory confrontation with isn't on the syrian theory stories. so basically by

side by side is continuing in the past. how does that sense? meaning that they don't want to create and instead of the t in a minute and they're not there, it's mandatory confrontation against each read. this. they can to accounts. also the same resume is very much weekend and does not want to have any kind of many truthful sensation where easier, especially now. so serious role has been mostly to be a zone of friends. it's for width and hezbollah, but also as one for the manufacturing of woodlands and actually a few days before the features that we had and these radio against the manufacturing products from uh, width and we in must see us in the city. uh, targeting has the manufacturing production site to move over. i think we have to take full sense because of the ration that line to iran or hezbollah. want to us more or human this we can position. and finally, it's also

a message then by damascus to you know, for james, west and state saying, look, we're not taking any kind of position. okay, so i position is, he's dressed and we're showing element duration. okay. sammy hezbollah is not the only a mid to organization it has its own social financial institutions is shaped most of the outcomes of the elections over the last 30 years, a had a massive influence on leverage over who should become president interest in lebanon. now, do you think they would have to reconcile with the fact that there is going to be a new political reality 11 and that's without consensus but to can a with a potent his but let me not be able to survive or ment. tate is the same leverage the c uh hezbollah would be facing the lot of challenges up at this floor. right. i mean, we already talked about about, and as i said earlier,

depending on also how it comes off of the war. if it's comes out in time, but definitely to diminish the end of the day, it's one of the standard been able to play a role, but it has 2 major charges. one is regarding is cost all constituency. because now, because as i said earlier, more than 1000000 displays from the t as on the saw and they will see show. and it has to deal with that problem. you've got more than 50000, destroy residential units in these areas, such a huge destruction in place and has made sure a social center services are also being and these are key laws as a political economy also because they provide services to its constituency. be on this page. so that's one child style. second charge is how it was put to deal with the other political parties. and as i said, you know, here,

if it's southern talks more or less, i think it wouldn't be able to in fact view with that situation and kind of was a mess of the know the form of the fact that a lot of people think a lot of this is paula. compose nothing, and in fact, it's very powerful. responded to powerful a boost can party 11 in, but it's unable to get this all difficult kind of to become cousin for the last 2 years. right. so now you guys may have sort of diagnosed sort of as power and be able to sort of deal with the consensus and come up with someone who's actually that favorites as well. but really not, is that it's all i know you guys. if you look at the very dynamics of the proxies operating in the region for quite some time, so good about has been lots of good about the the who sees in e. m and, and the she all munitions operating in iraq. do think that that the nomic itself is going to change whatever happens in the upcoming weeks

a lot in the upcoming weeks. i think that's far too short a time frame to anticipate major changes with real political significance on these lines. are networks of relationships between these proxies with a rob, i think, are still fundamental. what might be interesting is whether other outside powers get involved. i've heard talk of russia and providing more support, directly written directly to the host using m and for instance. and we have to wonder if these really threats against the rum escalates. and if that threat seems to involve us as well, how likely is it the russia will not get involved in that? and even china, i think, at least diplomatically un, but potentially more. i mean, we're looking at a situation which is a accelerating, i mean which is really prime is, are be nothing. yeah. who i think sees themselves as reclaiming some kind of stages

that he lost a year ago on the 7th of october. mm hm. and that he does believe his own rhetoric about redesigning a redrawing them at least the order, but anything on that scale of ambition, i think will both raise questions about what the americans really want. and i think in this case, the americans increasingly are on board. but that can't happen in a vacuum. all right, and at the time when joe political libraries with russia and china are in our, in tennessee funding. so i'm just trying to say we tend to thinking in a rather narrow way about wilcox here that proxy. and i think certainly when it comes to hezbollah, which is the most important, single the proxy i'm here, the runs that we're, we're looking at a much wider picture. and, oh, there's really no ways really many reaction right now. that is making the connection so important by striking the hoses in human, striking, serious right, that has about potentially striking you run in

a way is really action. regardless of you know, the justifications for go, but it's is really action and all right, that's driving us all towards something that could escalate a much higher level. i have the many of the i can go to a cover with you. a good gentleman. so a person who can give us some short answers at joseph. now, this region has been defined by the so called axis of resistance of the so called axis of normalization. whatever you may call it. do you think that the ground is going to tend further towards those so obvious thing that it's about time for more normalization with is right with this with defense again on what would have the number but to assume that think unfortunately the war is the ongoing and when the continue for one, it will depend on the east or that tack. most part of the in the next one along days i guess the wrong. um, the problem is that today the thoughtful and normalization is complete. your

thoughts because there's no a sound good parts and to realize even the basics of the 2 state solution is. ready the bottom attends is used as a possibility, and today it is creating a loss. i brought this movement, criticism against our region as women that are unable to do in regard to the independence didn't question. so this will access somebody's ation is facing a major that i'm writing difficulty as much as possible for which was the nobody's ation, the needs of something to set to the population, which is not being the case on the opposite. these ready state is maintaining and deepening is there and i said the reward is about a senior and supports a why to work in the region, which is anything except t for region of states. son. sammy did iran on his butler and that is to mate. the

fact that is right is post october, the 7th. willing to go for what type of costs they might income or suffer in the future for the sake of protecting themselves from what they perceive to be an existence of threats. i think while i did under estimate, however, i need is very disparate, particularly on collecting intelligence on the party. and so it's printing and i think that was the low and in fact, i think as well as the law that support loss and intelligence for and is paying. and it has to be easy for rob, i think, as well as what has prepared yourselves for to get all sort of guns and vision more much better than the 1st one. and i think as the financial times article on the spines of that is really is that thing how the interior and 5 it has shown to have exposed has been the big time because these are it is we're collecting

a lot of take on the information on a has one of those military and find a command as performance and cbs back to shield time in terms of all the armed forces. so i don't think, 1st of all, i saw that i think that's a lot to be learned for that. for the one to be organization is a do think uh is, is visor a response would be restrained, fairly calculated cautious. i mean, i don't think we've seen anything so far as suggesting is really restraint. it seems to me that these are the minute you come out and is implementing a multi faceted, multi stage plan that it's been putting together over a very long time back to of course, by the sort of intelligence that samuel speaking of and technological means. this is the 1st demonstration of sort of what the future wars will look like. even more

so than the grain war in terms of the application of artificial intelligence for instance, and how that's tied into, you know, amount of vehicles, drones and so on. so i think one thing that the spell, it certainly didn't really grasp in the opening salvo as of this campaign starting to pagers attack it on the 17th of september, is that there were further blows to come. and as well as should have been thinking hard about just where those when the abilities could possibly be. so that we had already seen a demonstration on the 1st day of infiltration of as well as supply chain. and the manner in which, you know, a large number of things people were taken out of state immediately, etc. so none of the suggest it's not just about restraint is about, is ram is implementing a wider campaign, certainly against as well. but i think it's also sort through how and that, but with what tempo it might expand that operation to as we've seen. yeah. ma'am.

yeah. they is area. we have to like a that i that us i really appreciate to your insights easiest. i assigned me to help a lot, joseph bob. thank you very much. indeed. thank you a whole lot. so you can see the program. i got any time by visiting our website as, as a dot com for further discussion goes on facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j insights story. you can also have a conversation on x or a 100 is at a j inside story from the hash about about the entire team here in the is really forces seek to silence the truth in the occupied westbank storming and shutting down alger 00 in ramallah is targeting of donors the r as in years, a few minutes, the beginning of the done, it was

a scene in gunners live and he's done it was i'll just, you, i don't. and it's another example of journalist not being allowed to do their work in this conflict. big ward is me that doesn't list the text. everything is being undermined by government entitled to a 3rd grade to tear with use of to that address here. and to authoration has read, journalism is not a crime or pressing it is what we do it all just sarah is try to follow this story and he's the people who allow us into their lives, dignity, and democracy as the world economy. those strikes are those with a strong result. indonesia is where such resolve about the right place for your business to get off the brace. otherwise with this strategic downstream industry on decline,

your better tomorrow. what's most important to me is talking to people understanding what they're going through here though, just either we believe everyone has a story. we're hearing the the down or a kyle, this is the news. how i live from the coming up in the next 60 minutes. and is there any flights of pain kills at least 21 people in the striking to come in the occupied west bank knew is really strikes hit has the stronghold in favor. the symphony in death toll vises us into the neighborhood light in the go in the wrong send a message.