i will say that pushover towards the korean peninsula, on sunday, the through centuries of expulsion and persecution, an ideology was form that was the appropriate jewish identity facilitate the creation of israel and fragments within the western world. order. in a 3 part series, the big picture charts, the rise of the still religious states from an imperial proxy to an indispensable value of the west and examines how this alliance has granted design this project, global and punitive civic picture. how israel, when the west part one on the jersey to the although i'm adrian instead of going and this is counting the cost on. i'll just

see where you'll reach and look at the business of the comics. this week. j. a political tensions in the middle east of escalating, but how, what, why the conflict affect the economies of the parties involved? and what are the ramifications globally? a surprise economic stimulus in china beijing is announced. big monetary stimulus measures to try to revive it's slowing economy. but really look as in pop ways, you gold front seat gives the values and we can install it up. is the nation facing? yes, i'm of a kind of surprises, or kind of succeed in stabilizing. it's a con. release tensions or ratcheting out bringing the region closer towards an all out. all the geopolitical risk rose off to iran, launched a major ballistic missile attack targeting sites across the israel. the escalation comes almost a year off to israel started it's war on concept now. whitening boil in the region

carry heavy costs for the parties involved, including economic. i've seen that it's area and losses. the long term effects could also have serious run if occasions for the global economy. we'll discuss banks with, i'll guess shortly, but 1st, let's take a look at what's at stake here. the price of oil is traditionally sensitive to every twist and turn and geopolitical tensions. brent crude, the international benchmark oil price rose as much as 5 percent to move and $75.00 a barrel off to ron subtract gold prices also rose. now iran is a major oil producer supplying around 3 percent of the world output despite west and sanctions that have tripled its economy. it also has influence over the strait of home lose, which handles move on 30 percent of global oil tre, those supplies could be disrupted. trade routes in the red sea of also at risk of to several attacks. my, who the rebels on ships passing through the was a wave egypt. so is canal bo, for which 12 percent of global tre process could also suffer disruption level and

syria of the most vulnerable nations, the economic losses, the lebanese government is in desperate need of aid. while the syrian government called a fault, the humanitarian response to the influx of refugees from lebanon, israel's war on guns as will respond to the unprecedented humanitarian crisis in the strip of tax. by the way, the army and settlers of ground the economy in the occupied westbank to hold the cost of the war on casa, has heard israel's economy significantly vital economic sectors. under a standstill, oregon has rocketed well. revenues of slumped credit rating agency, booties downgraded the nation for a 2nd time, bringing it closer to non investment. great. neighboring countries including jordan and egypt, which depend on tourism of trade, could see a decline of their revenues. use of a disruption of supply chains. unemployment could also rise, that could hurt the economy is even saw with joining us not from doha is about to

allow his, an economic and political risk analyst and middle east and north africa director at the global council. i think good time you with us. again, let's start with the price of oil, which rose was around 4 percent off to a. ron's missed on the track on his row, but had fallen about 10 percent over the last 3 months with opec warning recently that the price would remain weak. what might happen to the price of oil? if the conflict wipers, especially if it run closes the strait of homo's. well, what we've seen is the return of the duplex covers the premium to the price of all . as you said, it shuts off by about 7 percent following the tit for tat con confrontation. but until that point, markets have darcia the shrugged off. what's happening in the middle east now is different. the conflict is whitening and the wrong could decide. this next step is to retaliate against iranian israel could retaliate against iranian energy infrastructure, which would take off around $2000000.00. a 1000000 barrels will be raining oil from

international oil markets, which would lead prices to go up by, by 80 and even reach a $100.00. that said we've, we've got high inventory. we bought about 5000000 barrels of oil in spare capacity between the large oil producers. those can be bought online to offset the loss of iranian production, which would help stabilize the oil prices. but there is no doubt that the risk premium do political risk premium to $1.00 price is, has returned, it has caught oil, traders will soften. the market was various caught them off guard. and if oil does go to $8100.00 a barrel, what will be the impact on global inflation? because many central banks around the world are just beginning to get a handle on inflation right now. i would undermine the progress that central banks have been achieving the going to rate cutting cycle b. c. b has the united states. federal reserve has an inflation shock. what happens if one was to go up to 80 or 100?

the last time it did was, it was in the wake of the russian invasion of ukraine and the sectioning of russian oil. and its not of the percentage pointed to global inflation. and it, this, this would have the effects on other parts of the economy. oil prices defense manufacturing, the defects of food and fertilizer prices, so it would have 2nd and 3rd order effects on the global economy just as it's starting to mount a recovery. as we've reported several times in the last few weeks on counting, the cost of israel's economy has been put quite badly by its war on guns and would be hooked. so the still by a wider conflict. what about of the economies in the region 11 and siri of jordan, egypt? what would be the impact of a of a wider conflict on them? could the economies withstand it? especially level 11 on syria are the 2 sides of the same point. their, their economy service are connected there, intertwined. they share a very porous border of both countries or reeling from,

from long time economic crises. syria is, goes back, goes back to a 10 year old civil war it's, it's got a feeling states living on that level of the banking system. one of the collapse not only effective 11 east currency, but also the searing process. you have a, a refugee crisis about 37 percent developing east population today made the whole syrian refugees. and then you have 11 on to the internal displacement crisis that involves a 1000000 lebanese moving some southern regions to flee the viking, which is going to be further strength, decreasing social infrastructure of the lebanese state. and you have between those 2 countries. now a, a, a part of the columbia are in form of the com, you're on the list of the economy. yeah, for example, like striving narcotics, trade between the correction and federally patronage networks. that time, the 2 countries together, which has led to, for example, levels of exports of fruits and vegetables being banned to major markets and the goal because of the things i kept to go on and are caustic of being styled inside

these goods. so it has been devastating for both the economies and both economies are mirror images of each other. and what about the economies of george an agent that jordan is heavily dependent on for an 8th. it hasn't been affected directly by the crisis. of course you have a towards the big being case, you've gone off the egypt of egypt as it is a bigger story in egypt is a calling reading from a the worst economic crisis in, in decades. it has just the certainly no, no, no, not nearly all the words is accepted for an aid from the u. s. stimulus package from the i ipad, big investments from southeast and the u. e. a investment this just about starting to come in, but you get to not out of the woods is fundamentals haven't changed and the, the, the war has affected egypt in material ways. so you've got a year on your loss of about 20 percent. the revenue from the source canal, which is an important source of heart currency for egypt and its stores of sector,

which was just recovering from the shocks of cobra. then roughly grain is, is being affected. and what about the impact of the instability of both up to back and what about the impact of, of a wider conflict on, on global trade routes? for instance, let's say this is come out as well, the global, i think the global trade routes and the districts have recalibrate the costs are significantly higher. the red sea continues to be out the balance for most shipping . these are, have not relented in their attacks on red sea shipping. uh that has had the pleasure effects that by now have been a baby to, to global inflation. so i think that that, that will only continue, especially if you combine that with fire oil prices that will have 2nd or 3rd, inflation effects on the global becomes global market seem to have taken things pretty much in the stride as you were saying earlier there. but quite sanguine for the moment, there's been no big rush to safe havens. how long would that lost or how quickly

could things change if a wider conflict were to begin? well, i think the, the, the impact is going to be coming from from oil prices, right. so it affects chemicals that affect the sectors across the world, manufacturing, and that's going to really hit the recovery and it strikes is going to for central banks to keep interest rates fire. and that's what we have to really focus on. if the interest rates remain buyer and the price of the bump for consumers that goes up in the, the central banks will have to have those pause in the rate cutting cycle. and that's going to affect the recovery in a big way. it's going to be also politically centipede election year for, for the us israel, and they run like to deliver that october surprise for the us selections. if it is going to make it very hard for the hairs campaign to wind voters, when they're, when the price of the pump is, is going up. and when, you know, energy production is really becoming a, like the rock commit to go issue in the us in a bunch of the ground states that are producing energy. indeed,

i could state so increasing the oil prices because the middle east lot conflicts have wind reading effects on the global economy offer. it's good to talk to you or kind of the cost manufacturing of being with us. thank you to try those younger workers of finding it hard to get a job. businesses a struggling to pay off debts. the wealth of the chinese people has been depleted by slumping home prices. investor confidence is depressed. and paging trade relations with the west aust strained chinese leaders worried about the sponsoring economy. pulling up all the stops with central bank unveiled a series of economic stimulus measures last week, it was seen as the boldest attempt to revive economic growth. but is it going to work? we'll discuss not without guessed in a moment, but 1st the local, some sharif ripples show no smoking, the 7210 most video fits foundation, the seo, the modest incomes as it stuff markets have sold for over the week of the china

central bank. announce some of the boldest measures in is aimed at surviving the world's 2nd largest economy, including the cops and interest rates just watching each other issue and fall point . as i take the opportunity to announce the following policies, 1st reduce the reserve requirement ratio and the policy interest rate and drive the market benchmark interest rate downward. second, we will lower the interest rate on existing mortgages and unify the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages. 3rd, create new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market and the new measures that in particular, the after 5 in the sector that's low china as a company from the co would 19 pandemic. the property sector has been aiming for years after the government crackdown on excessive borrowing for projects, the prolong, slum affected other parts of the economy, from construction to sales of home appliances. and the see the mortgage rate cops,

roubles, consumers, sentiment, and proof of the property market share. finally, i'm looking at how the calculus has to signals. first is to boost residence consumption, and the 2nd is to stabilize the declining real estate market. effectively reassures families with the existing house loans, which is beneficial for helping the real estate market stabilize quickly and avoid impacting residents consumption. the major chinese city shanghai long. so n shinji and have ease the home buying restrictions with consensus, remain a high level of debt among households and businesses which could limit the effectiveness of the meshes ahead of the national day holiday was told to stepped up efforts to encourage consumer spending from exhibitions of displaying clean energy vehicles to promotions for furniture and smart homes with customers can receive a subsidy of up to 20 percent when trading an old home way. additionally,

in line with the consumption search during the holiday, we have introduced a new batch of environment defending smart home devices featuring high cost performance. chinese stocks had the best one, the valley since 2008 on september 30th a box showing those facts, reactive destruction for the 5th straight month in september. and the surfaces sector also slowed sharply. the stimulus package has boosted the more all of consumers and businesses being may need additional. bo moves. if it's to me, it's 5 percent growth target for 2024 across. i'm sure you've all just ego for counting the cost. and joining us now from shanghai as shown, ryan, he's the founder of managing director of china, a market research group that's leading strategic market intelligence from focused on china, an offer of the book, the split. sure. good to have you with us. so the government wants to restore confidence in the economy and encourage investment on spending. is this package of

measures enough to do that? or is it just a stopping point? do you see more to come? it's great to be here. if you know my background, i've been in china for 27 years and for the 1st 25, i was one of the biggest people on china. but for the last 2 years i become one of the biggest bidders. and so it's great that the chinese government is launch what i consider to be of many stimulus to help rebuild confidence, help get the stock equity markets booming. again, try to see if we can get some things happening in the real estate market. and that's all great, i still think the stock market can go up another 1020 percent over the next one to 3 weeks. but here's the question. i'm not sure that this many stimulus is enough to really fix some of the structural problems that are inherent in the chinese economy . today. we have to remember that 30 percent of the economy used to be based off of real estate. we're now looking for new drivers abroad, which egypt paying and the c p. c called new productive forces,

things like manufacturing and he's manufacturing and batteries. the problem though, is this trying to get stronger and any bees you're seeing the western world getting very nervous. you know, the bottom regime is 5 to 100 percent tariffs on chinese. i need these the vassals justin to go from canada and also swap the 100 percent. and you also see 18 to 30 percent on tariffs in europe. so the problem is the stimulus is great to regain investor confidence. but at some point, it's very hard for chinese economy to actually grow because the drivers that are supposed to take the place and substitute real estate are being contained by the western imperial powers. okay, so it's just a sticking plaster for the moment, but what were the risks of inaction for china? was it risk and perhaps becoming like japan and staring down the barrel of of decade of stagflation. you know, we've already dealt with basically for last years in china we are facing the last

decade i've been optically, you know, income levels are really low. that's why you have an 18 point. 8 percent unemployment rate in august for chinese. you. so we're facing serious issues. the chinese government had to launch minis. them, it was, but here's the problem. it's run out of money. a lot of local governments have become overly indebted because of very expensive 0 corporate policies that they have to adhere to during the cobra. era, there's very little tax revenue. so actually what's happened is a lot of local governments are going around you profitable companies and say, please donate money to local tax authorities because we need to raise money. they're also going along to a lot of wealthy people and saying, you know what, 1020 years ago, you were corrupt. you did something illegal, will let you go if you pay a fine. but it's very clear that the government had to launch a stimulus in order to regain confidence. but we're also just kicking some of the

problems down the road. we need to deal with structural forms. we need to get use unemployment though. we need to fix labor market laws, so it's easier to hire and fire employees. and most importantly, is we have to make sure that we have stable income. because even if you have a stimulus, we're stocks go up. people aren't going to go out and spend if they're not sure their stocks are going to continue to go up. they need to make sure that they know a 2025 or 2026. their income levels are going to be the same. it's not hotter than a 2024. that's always the stable in common income levels. i don't think you're gonna have the consumer confidence to go out and spend a lot of right now. we're a golden week and found a big holiday week. hotel prices, an air ticket. prices are down 20 percent year on year because the confidence is spent just isn't there. a very briefly showing. is this some of this package at least enough to lift the moribund property sector, which of course so many problems. of course the chinese economy i think is enough

to live equities. and that's why you see institutional investors from around the world from david tapper to fidelity. to capital group are rushing into china, but i'm not convinced it's enough to uplift the more bound real estate sectors. you call it because people still even mortgage rates are lower even down paul, down payment levels are lower. people are not going to buy homes. if they think the price we're going to continue to draw, i hope we've reached bottom, but i don't think it's we've reached bottom any time soon. real estate showing really good stuff to your own content. the cost manufacturing day for being with us . thank you for having me. the official dates have published an argentine it says that bullet hoff. it's 46000000 people living in poverty. that's a why is a pull the 5000000 this year? a lot of these on the 1st official figures published since heavier millay became president boss, to send up daniel schwab. but in the capital point us out as looks now at how this figures translate into reality. for millions of argentines

pulled a t is nothing new knowledge and tina, which is look for one economic crisis to another over the past 60 years or so. the what the stick is published for the state statistics office index show is to 53 percent of the population now lives below the poverty line console for basic food items. that for the increase of more than 5000000 this year, 2 thirds of them are under 14 years old code. it has to be a lot because of the kids. the kids are different issue and i may not have much. but the little that i have, i tried to sometimes give them a piece of chicken by large boxes of milk to at least give them some milk, even though i have so little wages have not kept pace with an installation of more than 230 percent of the worst in the world. this means people are

working the same hours for less well prices rise most daily. and this on top of government costs the subsidies for fuel health transport and welfare programs weekly. so we have 2 of them. uh, i also turned all a 100 and since this government took office, our work has dropped off. we work twice as much for less. at my age, i'm not getting hired anywhere else except maybe dragging carts and nothing more. so i keep pushing forward to cover, you know, they throw cells a 2 in one of the cyrus a magazine to help those in precarious living conditions. you must run always, you know, i got help from the neighbors. i sold the magazine. i've called to my job, but he like millions of others, is living on the edge, barely able to feed his a children. so do i tell you it's almost a bland and where he is planning how to resist what's happening? this is a place of resistance. what of the trenches we were trying to ensure everything doesn't pull the pump? heavy emily took office in december,

promising to drastically comp, public spending to table it from teen is run prints, inflation. the government claims to poverty on previous administrations. the rescue, he said, would take time, the markets, the i m f, a millions of electron city and still supports him. for the latest polls shows popularity is waning. this was one's one of the richest countries in the world. certainly one of the wealthiest and left in america, but now major crisis full of mind that blooms, there's no stability, and in patient population tends to eval more exciting freak leaders who promised instant solutions for the delay hasn't delivered one of those know yet. with each day the policy is more of continues one to when they feel deliver with the seemingly endless round of economic crises is set to continue that which

one the route to 0 for counting the cost in one as iris. it is the country's 6th currency in 25 years. the gold packed zinc was launched 6 months ago in an attempt to tackle a long running currency crisis and inflation. but some bob with gold was de valued by more than 40 percent against the dollar last week. the move by the central bank to slash the local exchange rate of its currency signals, persistent trouble in the nation's economy. is it replaced as in bob we and all of which have crushed several times since being introduced? reintroduced 5 years ago. previous attempts to stabilize the currency, but on the mind by the central bank printing money to finance government borrowing is a bump we and dollars stuff with one of the world's worst crashes to dates in 2009 . the government was printing 10 trillion dollar notes of hyper inflation was running at 5000000000 percent of nations president was about to implement measures to stop the currency sliding. joining us now from colorado instead bump way as

prospect just about a who's a development economist of senior research for the labor and economic development research institute for and bob way prospect good to talk to you again. so why has the central bank devalued physics? why has the public engine, bobby failed to embrace it? what i think your fist pressing they have the value did to, to allow for market forces of demand and supply to have agreed to say in terms of exchange rate to 10 munition. as you also know, the power markets, it was a also a depreciating for the premium, was actually widening. so the central bank it through the month of what is the committee decided to adopt it more lee, but our exchange rate. so that is actually an assisted that the deep valuation is that we have seen and that the bothers in my view is that say it's all that being driven by the huge mismatch in terms of the demand for the usb and the available stoplight. so i think that that is pushing pressure,

obviously on the exchange rate a people have not yet fully embraced visits and by the gods. a given the intelligence that'd be a bit in the past with respect to crony guide police in it as well as i find position. so in terms of the trust and confidence in the zig and they do a huge gift and deficit that the central bank and say the fiscal authorities, if for wake on a, in terms of feeding up for us. but what do you say that the central got bank wants to take a more liberal approach? true to the the exchange rate? does that mean that they will be allowed to float freely on currency markets, or are they still going to control the exchange rate? what they are moving towards allowing him or leave it free floats, it to some extent, maybe not the other, but then for the promote the what the central bank still maintain the good 5 percent. it's not in the requirements. so this to some controls within that. what an exchange management system, but the, well,

what we are getting is that they want to allow market forces, they've demanded stoplight. so it creates a fee in terms of the, the, the pricing was and for them exchange and he's above $6.00 currencies in 25 years. why has the central bank been unable to get a handle on the countries economic, a monetary policy, to what extent is the government it's the biggest threat pants were to its own currency and its own economy? yes, yes. i think i think our biggest challenges it might need to largely from level fiscal discipline. so in other words, we have failed to control public spending to with these fucked anymore levels. so we, we, we, we have a lot of different seats for the longest of times in the we have actually used. busy busy the central bank for about possibly 2 to 5 minutes don't. this is it's so that is created it in for this not fresh as in india economy. so i would say ultimately, our biggest challenge, at least with the disco legal,

fiscal discipline. but all so little money that i disagree in, sol, months up like what's made is been very, very unstable. if i only look at the numbers in between end of april of this year in april, june this year. and the zip money is actually increased by 50 percent, which is eh, i unplugged the initial given the state will quite corner be a which has been exhaust submitted by it by the drought floor is above this kind of the base and get it out, which is a fixed cost of production in the amount of fish items picked up. and also this fucking or not, or how much the price is, is also put a little chris up or now kind of the column. so this is, there's been a very challenging yet. and also because of the drought we are experiencing or holding pop outages, always good to talk to your prospect manufacturing data being with us to get on counting the cost. take some of the things that's i'll show for this week. if you'd

like to comment on anything that you've seen, i'm at a sitting on on x twice. remember to use the hash tag h a c t c, or you can drop us a line counts in the cost of elders here don't met is our email address. there's plenty of of you online at out of 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to a page, and then you'll find individual reports links and into addition scheme to catch up . but that's it for this additional counting the costs. i'm a very instead of going from the whole team here though, have thanks for being with us. for news on al jazeera is next the east timor use a storage, the catholic nation, but scandals involving high profile priests. plague the charge of us goes back to all of these gifts. some of the countries talk to just openly stand by the clerics, even after one was sent to prison. 101 east investigate east timor, reese candles, and i'll just say around the

mood and untold stories from asia and the pacific. on, would you say era? in springfield, philly means philistine is the voice of haitian migrants. when donald trump said falsely in a presidential debate, the asians here were stealing and eating the pets of springfield that always screw concern. we are human being just like everyone. dozens of death threats have left state police protecting the schools. wittenberg university in clark state college have shut down their campuses and switch to remote classes. even some trump supporters say they cringe when they heard the former president invoke their town, shot the village there still loved the man. many haitian migrants here in springfield told us their concern, but most of them declined to go on camera. they said they fear reprisals either in person or through social media. many of them told us, they're scared. some new comers now say they are considering leading spring feet as

a us citizen who arrived in 1994. philippine philistine advises them to stick it out. the large cloud of smoke and lebanon's capital, shortly off. the israel issues of warning for people to evacuate parts of southern bay routes. the result is there a life from deluxe. also coming up, sheltering from the onslaught with hundreds of thousands of liberty's fleet is really, is strikes on their homes. almost confirms one of his commanders was killed and it is rarely a strike on the.