the rain was possible flooding to japan on monday. the challenges era with every level known as a gun under time because is why the wages war against the countries dominance, political and military force has the law of the conflict is also bringing process to change levels, fragmented political system. so who's looking for that change, and what might this mean? this is inside story, the

hello welcome to the program. i'm how sure mazda bottle the volume is, again, under attack from israel, something the country has in george repeatedly of the hands of his neighbor for decades, although its primary target is, has my lies. wales attacks have been indiscriminate getting civilians and medical workers just as it has done in gaza for kyle. so role has also brought pressure from within and outside lebanon for changes to its political system. it has a complicated framework and bought a legacy of the french colonial prizes and also reflecting the diversity of lebanon's, religious and political goals. the system is broadly designed to ensure no groping has over or controlled, and has led to a state of relative political paralysis. with no president for the past 2 years, has by law is the biggest and dominant political and military force. but it's been heads hot and recent. these riley attacks,

including the assassination. obviously it has on us all the us and all those have been quick to cool for changes and the appointment of our president by parliament. so what does all this mean for that on and on the outside world? with here from, i would guess shortly about the this report from alexandria by us. it's been nearly 2 weeks since is real launched. defenses on has blog and 11 on killing more than 1000 people, including many women and children as well as leadership has taken a massive blo, it's liter house on those rolla assassinated in the air strikes and they route along with other top commanders for the lebanese people, after years of instability, the devastation is unbearable. but for others, it's a chance for a significant shift and political power in the country. we want to see a diplomatic resolution. but we do want to see has because capabilities degraded 11

on hasn't had a president or functioning cabinet for 2 years. we've had blood large we blamed for the hold on the complicated political system is based on power sharing between the countries religious sects, the prime minister must be sunni, muslim, the speaker, she a, and the president christian getting a majority vote depends on rival sections, creating strategic alliances and hezbollah has long insisted, the post of president must go to one of its allies. we have made clear for some time that we think the lebanese government needs to overcome the dysfunction in the system. uh, one of the primary instigators of that song dysfunction being that has the la vito over who the next president would be and elected president the last week has seen a string of diplomats visiting the country, including from france and iran. western and regional powers all have vested interest, and who holds power in lebanon, that's often seen as an indicator of change in politics,

in the middle east viewing from israel's assaults. so there are also new indications of flexibility when it comes to who may be president the speaker a parliament. a key has the ally has said he supports the president who is not a challenge to anyone. and the prime minister is calling for the election as soon as possible. the new president who represents all lebanese dot what to sort of, if it was on a conceptual president for the republic, who reassures everyone and dispels their various concerns so that we can reformulate or national priorities in our constitutional institutions. that guarantee the participation of everyone's rights, especially in stopping b, is really aggression and taking the past of economic and social reform and rescue. one candidates supported by france and the us is the commander of the lebanese armed forces. general joseph, i own the lebanese army could play a significant role in any ceasefire with this real potentially displacing hezbollah

from long held territory in the south. that would, at the end, nearly 2 decades of the groups, political and territorial control, and usher loving on into an uncharted future. alexandra buyers, alda 0 for inside story. the less to bring it, i guess, in beirut, how that java journalist and also books on iraq and lebanon, including his beloved bone with a vengeance in paris, nadeem hoodie, executive director, out of performing initiative and for my director of human rights watch and, and be able to david would senior i noticed with international crisis group, welcome to the program. honda, is that a consensus across the board 11 in that it's about time to break of the deadlock over the election of lebanese president? i think at the moment, uh, number 9 or a case, the last section of lebanon is um, quite occupied with. uh, that is really offensive. um, uh,

the legal sense that it's complex thing 11 on. i don't think at the moment um, what is quite works out the elections or who comes as president wouldn't be it. i'm sure the politicians have been in discussions because the past emissary is strongly united states and elsewhere who are coming to discuss these points. and in fact, they're coming with um with, with the, with victims if you want to, you know, to, to, to say to 11 on that this is the time for presidential and to be in it for president to be elected. and also to try and impose a particular name that's mike sheets for both for us. but it's really a entity and, and effects to pose a president on level on the team. what do you think is the, the, the problem here is, is the fact that people are saying we should not be moving towards having

a president when the country faces more uncertainty. i'm move the world that is happening, or is it the fact that the key political play is afraid to move forward towards that decision that could change the political landscape and lebanon? look, i think the 1st thing to realize is it's not the election of the president that will change things and loving on. usually the election of presidents 11 on is a reflection of the political moment. i think clearly yes, living on needs functioning, a governance of the stage, me, the president, we actually the function of government. there are over a 1000000 displays. the state has been largely absent, but i don't think we're going to be able to have a president until there is some clarity about not only where a lot on is going, but also where the region is going. because ultimately, the choice of the present will depend on and that's how it's been fact the for

decades, the power play between the different parties. and i think this is still not completely set off at this stage. okay, david, i mean is quite all this that as far as the americans in particular concerns the french also the europeans, whatever architecture they have in mind for the region and 11, in particular, when it comes to the cease fire agreement deployment to the army, to the south, they don't trust the political establishment, the trust of the army, and this explains why they want to see a president in place. what would it take his bottle of to say finally up to almost to you. it's about time to say we need a president. so i think it's important to emphasize that there's been a deadlock in lebanon over this issue and has the law and its allies have participated in that. but equally on the other side of the parliament, this being a reluctance to compromise as well. so while the need for

a compromise over presidential candidate is clear, it's also worth remembering that it's not obvious to me. it list exactly how external act is such as the united states would be able to, in effect, compel hezbollah to compromise and stand down and potentially allow the election of the president this not favorable to as above. and it has the law has a legitimate representation that one through elections in the polymer along with its allies and has sufficient voyage to block the election to the president against its wishes. it also has ministers in the government which and then through all state institutions, which could also be used to prevent any other attempts to degrade, has butler's political power. so the, on the other options, it would save me. that sort of scenario is to use the military for us to go. us has spell, let stand down and potentially events does. um, the risk of course be that is that has butler would not take this line down and would almost certainly react violently. so in this case, it's not even clear to me how the united states and israel and anybody else

interested in this actually plans to achieve is this degradation of has but less political power. hollow, although largely ceremonial 11 in the front as opposed to cabinets. if you're once is funny policy, how does say over a oh oh, but other issues and also it presides over the supreme defense counsel. is this the reason why people are reluctant to this particular moment to say we should have a consensus over a candidate who's going to lead levels. so these extremely challenging and difficult times for the region of the country. i mean, look at the, the, the, the issue or the problem of the president for having the president did not stop now with the visual effects of overlapping. now this is this, like you said, this has been an issue that's been ongoing for the last 2 years. and um, like your previous guys said, um, you know, the blame should not just be late, but those steps testable as it's the only one that is blocking and the election of

the or the appointments of the president. there are 2 sides to the story at each one is, is quite entrenched and its position as to who they see fit as far as, as well as sports and obviously has one that is not interested in having a presence in loveland. and that is going to be a representative or a voice for this reason that americans, the americans are trying now to weeks and this, but the point of the problem is that americans are no longer seen as a new truck player or party. where has one lot or loved done, and when i say has, well, i don't just need one. the other side lies and you're talking a large section of the population. they don't see the u. s. as a new true political party. that's the, that's can actually, you know, that is looking out for the really the nice interest rather than that is really interested in level. now, it's not that has, the law does not want the presence. but the problem is, who becomes a president?

you have one section that's what, but it doesn't mind having a president that does more aligned and that's what the americans want. someone who's more lines to american politics and therefore, or so definitely, and teacher is really politics. and you have has been law. that is definitely key other men against this, whereas they want someone who is a bit more aligned to them because one of the bonds is for hezbollah, for example, this on has well, again, is not against, let's say $71.00 which cools for the military. uh, meaning the knees on me to to, to, to be uh you know, to, to, to be, to take over a soft loving or what has been less against is is okay. 1701 a stipulates submitted. she goes to south lebanon and protects the border or, or, or, or, you know, stands at the border. but it also stipulates that is really putting the withdrawal from own whatever territories are still occupied. furthermore,

we have is really basically breaching lebanese sovereignty every single day, bye, whether it's drones or who claims. now amos holstein was the recently and part of his discussion with the speaker phone number is going to be very and with the leader of the dues dues community. um what needs them. lots of one of the things they said is okay. so if we have all of these on the, on the border, if we, if everybody follows with the 1701 under on the extra is where someone is, is agree, you know, kind of because agree, bye bye bye everyone. what about the, the, the, the, the, the drawers and the, and the who please that are continually reaching out nobody's size? no, no, no the, just a 2nd, amos amos holstein was to say that, you know, this is, is this, this, we continue no matter what? because this the spots in process of as well as national security. so we already

have a problem. so this is not going to be accepted. okay. nadeem, it has the law has been using its leathers in the past to block the election of any candidate pacific to be not sympathetic with the group. it's political agenda and the key regional back as opposed by law to the point whether said if it's not slim funds the, therefore they will be, no president has a lot, today's not his beloved the last few months. but if things have changed, its political leadership has been designated. it's tough, but it's recommend those kids over the last few weeks do things that has belong, we'd been out prone to some sort of political compromise to be able to move forward . i think at the current moment, no, i mean they 1st of all who's actually leading his beloved today. and obviously their priorities are different. you're right and what you're saying, i agree with, i love it. obviously, the responsibility for the vacuum is not just solely on because,

but i want to add 2 things here as well that there's a huge part of the responsibility and not just for the lack of election of president and 2019 a huge parts of the lebanese population wanted to really reform the system to have more accountability. are corrupt all the guards were all weekend and who stood and acted like the republican guard for the regime and loving on. it was on the oh, really prevented the investigator and loving on to look into the port explosion. it was his bundle. so this issue, i mean that that's sort of the dilemma we find ourselves today and has been the, has actually been using is a beat up our, frankly, since 2006. and the fact is 2008. but at the same time, it doesn't want to take the full responsibility of governance. and yet it's preventing anyone from government and we're building a state. i think the only way forward is not to go back to the old. like all,

how do we power share between, you know, some blogs that'd be barely uh, the, potentially another heavier yeah. and so forth. and how can we move towards a different style of governance, which is what the vast majority of the lebanese want. and the only way to do that is to actually have an effective army that is responsible for protecting the boulders. that's why i'm not know you've to think that's going to happen overnight . i'm not, not, you've got some off as well as going to give us weapons. but this idea that loving on can somehow continue to exist with true power of those states. but actually it has about a lot today. being much more powerful. number 11, you said is impossible. not up to date. yes, headboard, this weekend, but it's still probably the most powerful party left or not. it's still definitely the one that is most armed and. and so this is, you know, it's a multiple equation and we need to be very careful,

11 about how we sequence things. uh huh. the vast majority of the lebanese, do not want any further civil war. the vast majority of the lebanese have no desire to see israel dictate, or at least of them. but i would actually argue also the majority of the lebanese to not want to go back to feeling. but hes butler is the one that decides when he bought toward when we have these, when we have a president, when we don't have an investigation, here's hezbollah at the moment, willing to accept the compromises isn't willing to re enter in good faith in negotiations with other 11, east parties. that's the big question. i think we probably wouldn't know the answer until a few weeks from now. okay, david, this is a complicated political landscape. lebanon has this long history of political, sectarian divide. you have us the constitution that this back to the french, a non data that you have the type agreements of 1989 which put an end to the 15 year long civil war. there's been a divide along the 8th,

the most 8 movement on march the 14th alliance. the lines were bloated back in 2016 and then back in 20182022. are we likely to see the same key play as back? like sad that, how do you, these jazz, uh, when the jumble up has butler, i own together for lebanon to move forward on fully binding to agree on what, how to, how to navigate this way. so i completely agree with what nadeem said, which is that the system, the political and economic order in living on that, let the country to this point way even before the war it was enduring and unprecedented. and entre to economic crisis for 4 years now it's 5 using now the last of working on that. clearly the system has to change, but i think also is nadeem adverted to in his response. we need to also realize this is an incredibly sensitive time. now the same act is still in place and it's

understandable that paperless, skeptical that the same sectarian latest would be willing to reform a system. which wallet failed the most, the majority of living is had served there on sophie's interest very well. at the same time, i actually do think that the kind of massive event which could potentially push these political and financial lights 11 on as well to reach a compromise on a president to form and you go from it. and then to start actually typing the economic process could be the end of this war. so there are several political actors who are opposed to hezbollah, who was avoided making incendiary public statements up until now. but privately, a probably having thoughts about wanting to see where the chips will lie, the end of the conflict, and then to go into negotiations to discuss a new pow balance 11 on. but i think that these sorts of discussions not to be held now as well. as leadership has been designated at a time when it's support as a traumatized and when there's also other tensions running through the country

related to the ongoing for obviously this cross of the displaced and so on. so while these are very important questions now is absolutely not the time to be rising. how that we keep talking about the need to put together those differences internally and agree on how to move forward. but this is a country where regional influence has been more pronounced over the last decades. do you think that this will bring back the notion of having the key, perhaps regional play of saudis, the iranians to agree if you want to have things fixed 11 and, and i think kevin, i'm not, you know, savvy, loving them is a country where, you know, it's its entirety, it's intensive, but you know, the whole concept of it and, and, and the way it was formed, and the constitution is, is always going to be relying on regional powers. that's, that's the way it's been now, whether lebanon can sort of move forward from that is another story that you,

you need to tell me who is a pool or the whole system, which i don't see is going to happen at the moment. the regional regional influence is regional impacts on the country out there and then i'm going to go away. now the question is, what, how far with these regional employees is in pairs have the over the parties, you know, on 1011 on itself is here. and within until there is unison between own all the players and the part easier, the more you succeed in these things internally than, than the less influence you get from the regional sense. but for the time being a piece, i wouldn't, i know, and i agree. so to me as well as taking a huge hit, there is no, you know, there's no denying that it's the reading from it in many ways than one at or many more ways than one. however, there is a tendency, and i'm not talking about you guys here, but if it's something the, even by the, by the, by the region of players and, well, most of it and i'm not sure if these to sort of behave as if it's, you know, it's it's at the last breath and it's over and done with,

and therefore they can as human awards and with their new, a vision full up. and this is not going to happen. and i think we use, even though you know, once a year it might be controversial, but i'm going to use one of the sentences that site and that's all i would say is about to feed this phone to the side often. but i think she is over, it's very difficult at the moment for any, you know, definitely for hezbollah to agree to anything or to make decisions. i think i'm thinking the ends, we don't know what is going to happen or what are they going to agree with for the time being. um, and there is a water before there is a 1000000 displaced in the country, it's going to cause your monetary issues and problems. it can let me clean the the m as in dire straits, not just now since since a few years ago. so there's a lot on the paper loving i'm at the moment and yes, why and having a president and the government is great. but i think this is at the moment the lease of, of at least concern for, for quite a lot of. busy of,

of the parents or the people nadeem is the ami pass to step in and secure, or, or the plane or the southern part of the country if decision is made. tomorrow that is going to be seized by agreement along the lines of the united nations resolution . 1701. yeah. so i think we have to be very honest here. the lebanese army is a bit like you in a sense, you know, they actually are not the ones that protect, but they become the sort of guardians of discount as well. remember, this is an army that because of the economic crisis, the lebanese state cannot even afford the salaries or pay enough for gas for its soldiers to move around. so having said that, if there is an agreement, the easiest thing to find all the funds, because a lot of these are paid to deployed. and i think 11 on there is a huge attachment stubs to this image of the lebanese army, as may be the only damage of the uniting institution. even though and practice the

last 2 or 3 decades is probably society that protects the army as opposed to the army protecting society. i just wanna boss and some of it on something that i was mentioning. i mean, i, i agree with her the right now as well as far from even for this weekend. i think there's probably not a lot in any move to, to compromise. there is a slight risk, even though ultimately i think you'll probably be the battlefield that decides that we've had this experience. it's a little bit on what waiting until the box and field decides. the cost is so high and ultimately the battlefield doesn't end up deciding everything. because i actually think if it has been less completely cornered and we can't, it can probably still ensure that the new order takes into account it's interest 11 on strider. the has been the for the country to knows to build the will use the

thing. we have to resolve the palestine question. now we're realizing it's not sufficient to resolve the palestine question. we also have to resolve the question of what is the wrong place and the region. and it seems for the last 2 decades before we resolve these 2 equations, or at least we find a temporary solution to them. loving on remains unfortunate li, unable to know any form of peace instability are we, is the region heading towards that point. it's too early to tell. i mean, we're on top probably on the you know, these really are saying they're going to attack the wrong, the wrong is going to retaliate. so it's going to be very difficult period. the question then becomes what kind of 11 use do a during this period to in a way to protect themselves as best they can. and for me, there been a couple of encouraging things that i've seen on the ground. this is really busy deficiency level. no, there's an incredible site, there are the between the lebanese incredible site there at the,

even in the regions that are not particularly supported as butler. and i think to the 2nd point is of the most politicians including the office as soon as that actually profoundly dislike because by the, our remaining mostly quiet. and i think that's probably bit wise because right now we need to weather the storm as best we can. okay, david, uh we reach the phase where we can say that for the time being whatever happens 11 is not going to be decided by the liberties or the by the be there by his political parties, but may ultimately depend on the outcome of what happens between these varieties on the ronnie is, hey, sun denials, the regional politics plays a huge role in the domestic politics of lebanon without a doubt. on the other hand, i'm not entirely convinced by the argument that it has been until the war started external actors who eventually a president from being elected 11 on at the end of the day. the fundamental issue up until now, uh or,

and so at least before he's racing to stunning attacks on his bold has been that as being a lack of consensus between lebanon's political and financial aids about how to deal with the economic process and what the new order of living on will look like now obviously that question has become much more, highly charged and much more than, sorry, it's become much more highly charged and a lot more risky. really because of these uh, tips that have been taken by has butler. but ultimately, while these national community will play a role, there is an opportunity for lebanese domestic act is to come together in the spirit of compromise. i just personally believe that that's much more likely to happen when the violence ends and that is a yet another reason that old bodies, bus, local and international should be pushing for us as far and living on, obviously as far and goes where as soon as possible as i'd better nadeem heard it, david, would i really appreciate your insight and thank you for walking us through this complex political landscape complex story. thank you much. i appreciate it. thank

you to for watching. you can see the program again, any time by visiting our website. i just the dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha, inside story, the costs of joining the conversation on x all hands. it is at a j inside started for me. how should i, how about the entire team here in doha bye for now, the is really forces seek to silence the truth. cindy occupied, westbank storming and shutting down houses. here was bureau and romano. the truth must be protected and hurt and the stories of real people must be told. this is not just an attack on journalism. it's an attack on the world's right to know. journalism is not, of course, or pressing it is after

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safe, the mean comment as an international inside corruption, excellence award, denominator hero. now the, [000:00:00;00] the hello i. my name's site. this is the news out live from joe hall, coming up in the next 60 minutes, the just send the last few minutes another round of as rainy as strikes on. they were the southern summit of da here, off to the ministry of more residents to evacuate. the