that's our process. we've also spoken the lebanese families who are living in the country from the heart of the story as road bombing campaign shows, no sign of doubts has below and need to equal the size and how to offense, the killing of exceed the hello. i'm adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on elders 0. your we can look at the world of business and economics this week. geopolitical tensions in the middle east of escalates and how, what, why the conflicts affect the economies of the parties involved. a lot of the ramifications globally surprise economic stimulus in china, beijing as announced big monetary stimulus measures to try to revive it's slowing economy, but will it look as in pop ways you gold front seat gives the values and we can

install it up. is the nation facing? yes, another kind of surprises, or can it succeed in stabilizing its economy? release tensions, or ratcheting out bringing the region closer towards an all out. all the geopolitical risk rose off the iran, launched a major ballistic missile attack targeting sites across israel. the escalation comes almost a year off to israel started this war on concept. now. whitening boil in the region could carry heavy costs for the parties involved, including economic. i've seen that it's heavy and losses. the long term effects could also have serious ramifications for the global economy. we'll discuss baths with, i'll guess shortly. but 1st, let's take a look at what's at stake here. the price of oil is traditionally sensitive to every twist and turn and geopolitical tensions. brent crude, the international benchmark oil price rose as much as 5 percent to move and $75.00

a barrel after iran subtract gold prices also rose. now iran is a major oil producer supplying around 3 percent of the world output, despite western sanctions that have tripled its economy. it also has influence over the strait of home lose, which handles move on 30 percent of global oil tre, those supplies could be disrupted. trade routes in the red sea of also at risk of to several attacks by who the rebels on ships passing through the was a way, egypt. so is canal vo. uh, through which 12 percent of global tre process could also suffer disruption level and syria of the most vulnerable nations to economic losses. the lebanese government is in desperate need of aid. while the syrian government called a fault, the humanitarian response to the influx of refugees from lebanon, israel's war on guns as will respond to the unprecedented humanitarian crisis in the strip. when attacks by the is way the army and settlers of ground the economy

in the occupied westbank to hold the cost of the war on garza has hurt israel's economy significantly. vital economic sectors under a stand still ongoing has rocket or revenues of slumped credit rating agency would is downgraded the nation for a 2nd time, bringing it closer to non investment. great. neighboring countries including jordan and egypt, which depend on tourism of trade. could see a decline of their revenue use use of the disruption of supply chains. unemployment could also rise and that could hurt the economies even saw though. well, joining us now from doha is about to allow his, an economic and political risk analyst, and middle east and north africa director at the global council. i think good time you with us. again, let's start with the price of oil, which rose walk around 4 percent off dre. ron's missed on the track on his row, but had fallen about 10 percent over the last 3 months with opec warning recently that the price would remain weak. what might happen to the price of oil?

if the conflict wipers, especially if it run closes the strait of homo's. well, what we've seen is the return of the do political risk premium to the price of all, as you said, it shop. i bought 7 percent following the tit for tat con confrontation. but until that point, markets had largely shrugged off. what's happening in the middle east now is different, the conflict is whitening and the wrong could decided. his next step is to retaliate against iranian israel, contested against iranian energy infrastructure, which would take off around $2000000.00. a 1000000 barrels of iranian oil from international oil markets, which would lead prices to go up by, by 80 and even reach a $100.00 a that said we've, we've got high inventory. we bought about 5000000 barrels of oil in spare capacity between the large oil producers. those can be bought online to offset the loss of iranian production, which would help stabilize the oil prices. but there is no doubt that the risk

premium do political risk premium to why the price is, has returned. it has caught oil, traders will soften. the market was various caught them off guard. and if oil does go to $8100.00 a barrel, what will be the impact on? well insulation, because many central banks around the world are just beginning to get a handle on inflation right now. i would undermine the progress that central banks have been achieving the going to rate cutting cycle b. c. b has the united states. federal reserve has an inflation shock, would happen if the world was to go up to 80 or 100. the last time it did was in the wake of the russian invasion of ukraine and the sectioning of russian oil. and it's not of the percentage pointed to global inflation. and it, this, this would have the effects um, other parts of economy, oil prices, defense manufacturing, the defects of food and fertilizer prices. so it would have 2nd and 3rd order effects on the global economy just as it's starting to mount a recovery. as we've reported several times in the last few weeks on counting,

the cost of israel's economy has been put quite badly by its war on guns and would be hook, so the still by wider conflict. what about of the economies in the region 11 and syria? jordan, egypt, what would be the impact of a, of a white, a conflict on them could the economies with stand it, especially $1111.00 on syria are 2 sides of the same point there. their economy service are connected there. intertwined. the sherry very porous. border, both countries are reeling from from long time economic crises, syria is goes back, goes back to a 10 year old civil war it's, it's got a feeling states living on that level of the banking system. one of the collapse not only effective 11 east currency, but also the searing process. you have a, a refugee crisis about 37 percent developing east population today made the whole syrian refugees. and then you have 11 on today. and the internal displacement

crisis that involves a 1000000 lebanese moving some southern regions to flee the viking, which is going to be further strength, decreasing social infrastructure of the lebanese state. and you have between those 2 countries now a, a, a they paddle economy or informal, the com, you're on the list of the economy. yeah, for example, it's driving narcotics trade between the correction and federally patronage networks. that tyler, 2 countries together, which has led to, for example, levels of exports of fruits and vegetables being banned to major markets and the goal because of things like capital going and are caustic of being styled inside these goods. so it has been devastating for both the economies and both economies are mirror images of each other. and what about the economies of george an agent that jordan is heavily dependent on for ages. it hasn't been affected directly by the crisis. of course you have a towards the big being case, you've gone off the egypt of egypt as it is a bigger story in egypt is a calling reading from

a the worst economic crisis in and decades. it has just this certainly, no, no, no, not nearly all. the words is accepted for an aid from the u. s. stimulus package from the math. big investments from southeast and the u. e. a investment dis, just about starting to come in, but you get to not out of the woods. it's fundamentals haven't changed and the, the, the war has affected egypt in material ways. so you've got a year on your loss of about 20 percent. the revenue from the source canal, which is an important source of heart currency for egypt and it's towards of sector which was just recovering from the shocks of corporate and rushing grain is, is being affected. and what about the impact of the instability of both up to back and what about the impacts of, of a wider conflict on, on global trade routes? for instance, let's say this is come out as well, the global, i think the global trade routes and the districts have recalibrate the costs are significantly higher. the red sea continues to be out the balance for most shipping

the who these are have not relented in their attacks on red sea shipping. uh, that has had inflation respects that by now have been a baby taken to global inflation. so i think that that, that will only continue, especially if you combine that with fire oil prices that will have 2nd order inflation effects on the global economy. global market seem to have taken things pretty much in the stride as you were saying earlier there, but quite sanguine for the moment. there's been no big rush to safe havens. how long would that last or how quickly could things change? if a wider conflict would be good. well, i think the, the, the impact is going to be coming from from oil prices. right. so it affects kind of goes in effect sectors across the world, manufacturing. and that's going to really hit the recovery and it strikes. it's going to for central banks to keep interest rate is higher and that's what we have to really focus on. if the interest rates remain buyer and the price of the bump

for consumers goes up in the, the central banks will have $2.00 of those pause in the rate of cutting cycle. and that's going to affect the recovery in a big way. it's going to be also politically centimeters, action year for, for the us israel, and they run light to deliver that october surprise for the us selections. if it is going to make it very hard for the harris campaign to wind voters, when they're, when the price of the pump is, is growing up. when you know energy production is really becoming a, like the rock commit to go issue in the us in a box of gloves throughout the states that are producing energy. indeed, i could state so increasing the oil prices because the middle east conflicts have wide ranging effects on the global economy. offered the good to talk to accounting the costs. many thanks for being with us. thank you to try those younger workers are finding it hard to get a job. businesses are struggling to pay off debts. the wealth of the chinese people has been depleted by slumping home prices. investor confidence is depressed. and

paging trade relations with the west aust strained chinese leaders worried about the sponsoring economy. pulling out all the stops with central bank unveiled a series of economic stimulus measures last week, it was seen as the boldest attempt to revive economic growth. but is it going to work? we'll discuss not without guessed in a moment, but 1st, the local, some sharif reports show no smoking, the 7210 most video fits donation this year. the mazda them comes as it stuff. markets have sold for over the week of to china central bank and found some of the boldest measures in use aimed at surviving the world's 2nd largest economy, including the cops and interest rates. just oil change of the c 15. but i take the opportunity to announce the following policies. first, reduce the reserve requirement ratio and the policy interest rate and drive the market benchmark interest rate downward 2nd,

we will lower the interest rate on existing mortgages and unify the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages. yeah, 3rd, great new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market. in fact, to the new measures that inflicted plus the edge of live in the sector. that slows china as a company from the co would 19 pandemic. the property sector has been aiming for years after the government crackdown on excessive borrowing for projects, the prolong, from affected other parts of the economy, from construction to sales of home appliances. and let's say the mortgage rate cops, roubles, consumers, sentiment, and proof of the property market share. finally, i'm looking at how the company says to signals the 1st is to boost residence consumption, and the 2nd is to stabilize the declining real estate market. effectively reassures families with the existing house loans, which is beneficial for helping the real estate market stabilize quickly and avoid impact and residents consumption. the major chinese city shanghai runs out and

shinji and have ease the home buying restrictions. the consensus remain a high levels of debt among households and businesses which could limit the effectiveness of dimensions. the head of the national day holiday was faulty, stepped up efforts to encourage consumer spending from exhibitions of displaying clean energy vehicles. to promotions for furniture am smart homes with customers can receive a subsidy of up to 20 percent when trading an old home way. additionally, in line with the consumption search during the holiday, we have introduced a new batch of environment to find the smart home devices featuring high cost performance. chinese stocks had the best one the valley since 2008 on september 30th. but china's factory activity strong for the 5th straight month in september and the surface set to also slope sharply. the stimulus package has boosted the

motor. all of consumers and businesses being may need additional bone moves. if it's to meet it's 5 percent growth target for 2024. i'm a consumption eve. i'll just ego for counting the cost. and joining us now from shanghai as shown, ryan, he's the founder of managing director of china, a market research group that's leading strategic market intelligence fund focused on china, an offer of the book, the split. sure. good to have you with us. so the government wants to restore confidence in the economy and encourage investment on spending. is this package of measures enough to do that? or is it just a stopping point? do you see more to come? it's great to be here. if you know my background, i've been in china for 27 years and for the 1st 25 was one of the biggest bull on china. but for the last 2 years, i've become one of the biggest bidders. and so it's great that the chinese government is launch what i consider to be a mini stimulus,

to help rebuild confidence, help get the stock equity markets booming. again, try to see if we can get some things happening in the real estate market. and that's all great. i still think the stock market can go up another 1020 percent over the next one to 3 weeks. but here's the question. i'm not sure that this many stimulus is enough to really fix some of the structural problems that are inherent in the chinese economy today. we have to remember that 30 percent of the economy used to be based off of real estate. we're now looking for new drivers of growth which she just paying and the c p. c called new productive forces, things like manufacturing and heaves, manufacturing and batteries. the problem though, is this trying to get stronger in any of these, you're seeing the western world getting very nervous. you know, the bottom regime is swap the 100 percent tariffs on chinese. i need these vassals justin to go from canada and also swap the 100 percent. and you also see 18 to 30 percent on tariffs in europe. so the problem is the stimulus is great to regain

investor confidence. but at some point, it's very hard for chinese economy to actually grow because the drivers that are supposed to take the place and substitute real estate are being contained by the western imperial powers. okay, so it's just the sticking plaster for the moment, but what were the risks of inaction for china? was it risk getting perhaps becoming like japan and staring down the barrel of of decade of stagflation. you know, we've already dealt with basically for last years in china, we are facing a last decade. i can honestly, you know, income levels are really low. that's why you have an 18 point. 8 percent unemployment rate in august for chinese. you. so we're facing serious issues. the chinese government had to launch a mini stimulus, but the, here's the problem. it's run out of money. a lot of local governments have become overly indebted because of very expensive 0 corporate policies that they have to

adhere to during the cobra. era, there's very little tax revenue. so actually what's happened is a lot of local governments are going around to profitable companies and say, please donate money to local tax authorities because we need to raise money. they're also going along to a lot of wealthy people in saying, you know what, 1020 years ago, you were corrupt. you did something illegal, will let you go if you pay a fine. but it's very clear that the government had to launch a stimulus in order to re gain confidence. but we're also just kicking some of the problems down the road. we need to deal with structural forms. we need to get used unemployment though, we need to fix labor market laws, so it's easier to hire and fire employees. and most importantly, is we have to make sure that we have stable income. because even if you have a stimulus, we're stocks go up. people aren't going to go out and spend if they're not sure if stocks are going to continue to go up, they need to make sure that they know

a 2025 or 2026. their income levels are going to be the same. it's not farther than a 2024. that's always the stable in calling income levels. i don't think you're gonna have the consumer confidence to go out and spend a lot of right now. we're a golden week and found a big holiday week. hotel prices, an air ticket. prices are down 20 percent year on year because the confidence has been just isn't there a very briefly showing. is this some of this package at least enough to lift the moribund property sector, which of course so many problems of course the chinese economy. i think it's enough to look at what do you use, and that's why you see institutional investors from around the world from david tapper to fidelity to capital group are rushing into china. but i'm not convinced it's enough to uplift the more around real estate sectors. you call it because people still even mortgage rates are lower even down pull down payment levels are lower. people are not going to buy homes. if they think the prices are going to

continue to draw. i hope we've reached bottom, but i don't think it's we've reached bottom anytime soon as real estate show really good stuff to your accounting, the cost manufacturing day for being with us. thank you for helping me. the official dates have published an argentine assessable that hall fits 46000000 people living in poverty. that's a why is a pull them 5000000 this year. a lot of these on the 1st official figures published since heavier mail, a became president boss to send up daniel schwab. but in the capital point us out as looks now at how this figures translate into reality for millions of argentines pulled a t is nothing new knowledge and tina, which is look for one economic crisis to another, over the past 60 years or so. the what the stick is published by the state statistics office index show is to 53 percent of the population now lives below the poverty line console for basic food items. that for the increase of more than

5000000 this year, 2 thirds of them are under 14 years old code. it has to be a lot because of the kids. the kids are different issue and i may not have much. but the little that i have, i tried to sometimes give them a piece of chicken by large boxes of milk to at least give them some milk, even though i have so little wages have not kept pace with that new installation of moving 230 percent of the worst in the world. this means people are working the same hours for less well, prices rise most daily. and this on top of government costs to subsidies for fuel health transport and welfare programs weekly today because we have 2 of them. uh, i also turned all a 100 and since this government took office, our work has dropped off. we worked twice as much for less. at my age, i'm not getting hired anywhere else except maybe dragging carts and nothing more.

so i keep pushing forward to cover, you know, that they throw sales h, we more desirous a magazine to help those in precarious living conditions. you know, as you know, i guess helps the neighbors. i sell the magazines, i've called to my job, but he, like millions of others, is living on the edge. barely able to feed is a children. so to install you almost how you plan and where he planning how to resist what's happening. this is a place of resistance, one of the trenches we were trying to ensure everything doesn't pull a pump. heavy emily took office in december, but promising to drastically come public spending to tell you mileage and teen is run funds inflation. the government claims to poverty on previous administrations. the rescue he said, would take time. the markets, the i m. s a millions of electron tv and still supports him for the latest pose shows popularity is waning. this was once one of the richest countries in the world,

certainly one of the wealthiest and left in america. but now major crisis full of mind that blooms, there's no stability and patient population tons to ever more eccentric leaders who promised instant solutions. for the delay hasn't delivered one of those know yet with each day the policy is more of continues one to when, if he'll deliver was the seemingly endless round of economic crises is set to continue that which one the route to 0 for counting the cost in $1.00 as iris it is the countries 6th currency in 25 years, but gold fact zinc was launched 6 months ago in an attempt to tackle a long running currency crisis and inflation. but some bob with gold was de valued by more than 40 percent against the dollar last week. the move by the central bank to slash the local exchange rate of its currency signals,

persistent trouble in the nation's economy. is it replaced as in bob we and all of which have crushed several times since being introduced? reintroduced 5 years ago. previous attempts to stabilize the currency on the mind by the central and printing money to finance government borrowing is above we and dollars stuff with one of the world's worst crashes to dates in 2009. the government was printing 10 trillion dollar notes of hyper inflation was wanting a 5000000000 percent relations president was about to implement measures to stop the currency sliding. joining us now from all righty and said, bump way is prospectors and bought a who's a develop into economist senior research for the labor of economic development research institute for. and bob we prospect go to talk to you again. so why has the central bank devalued? does x, y has the public insight, bobby failed to embrace it. what i think you'll 50 percent if the value did to, to allow for market forces of demand and supply to have

a good to say in terms of exchange rate to 10 munition. as you also know, the part of the market today, it was a also a depreciating for the premium was actually widening. so the central bank it through the month of the policy committee is decide that you adopt it more lead by the exchange rate. so that is actually an assisted that the valuation that we had seen and that the bothers in my view is that say it's also being driven by the huge mismatch in terms of the demand for the u. s. d and the available supply. so i think that that is pushing pressure, obviously on the exchange rates, and people have not yet only embraced, visited in public gold a given the challenges that we have been in the past with respect to coney guy position as well as i position. so in terms of the trust and confidence in the zig and there's do a huge gape and deficit that the central bank and say the fiscal authorities, if awake on a, in terms of feeling up for us. but what do you say that the central got bank wants

to take a more liberal approach? true to the exchange rate? does that mean that the say will be allowed to float freely on currency markets? or are they still going to control the exchange, right? what the would be towards allowing it more leap. it free floats, it to some extent, and maybe not the present for the plot. the what the central banks do maintain that it's good 5 percent. it's not in the requirements. so this to some controls within that for an exchange management system. but the, well, what's the idea is that they want to allow market forces, they've demanded stoplight. so it creates a fee in terms of the, the, the pricing was and for them, it's just a, just above $6.00 currencies in 25 years. why has the central bank been unable to get a handle on the countries economic, a monetary policy, to what extent is the government it's the biggest threat pathway to its own

currency and its own economy? yes, yes. i think, i think our biggest challenges in my native, largely from level fiscal discipline. so in other words, we have favorites to control public spending with dean fucked in boy levels. so we, we, we, we have a lot of different seats for the longest both times in the we have actually used. busy the central bank for about possibly 2 to 5 minutes, those visits so that has created it in place not to push out the need. they called on me. so i would say ultimately our biggest challenge, at least with the disco, liquid fiscal discipline, but or for liquid money to discipline. so model stoplight, what's made is bitty bitty bitty, until at the level, if i only look at the number of it between end of april of this year and end of june this year. and the zip mind me is actually increased by 50 percent, which is eh, i, i'm fucked. and it will give in the state to quite corner be

a which has been exhaust submitted by the drought flows about this kind of the base and get it out. which is a fixed cost of production in the amount of fish items picked up and also dysfunctional. you know, how much the price is, is also put in a little chris up, oh no kind of column. so this, this is been a very challenging yet. and also because of the drought we are experiencing or holding power outages is always good to talk to your prospect manufacturing dates of being with us to get on counting the cost. take some of the things that's i'll show for this week if you'd like to comment on anything that you've said, and i'm not a thinking on x, try to remember to use the hash tag h a c t c, or you can drop us a line counts in the cost of elders here don't met is all e mail address. there's plenty more if you own lineup out a 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to a page. and then you'll find individual reports, links and tot addition skews and catch up. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost i made for it. instead of going from the whole team. here though,

how, thanks for being with us. the news on al jazeera is next is really for us, is seek to sign into the truth and garza, i'm the occupied westbank by indiscriminately killing jermel is now just here with journalists, a paid the price. this is not just an attack on journalism. it's an attack on the world's right to know. the truth must be protected and heard. and the stories of real people must be told. journalism is not a crime. pressing its own in palestine on the british rule. educate in american countries national professor in new york. he realized that he was the

voice of a p o g 0. well expose what made him an intervention, right? and champion of the palestinians and what size out of place the safe them even come in as an international insight, corruption, excellence award, nominator hero. now

the, the israel alisha is new as strikes on lebanon's capital out of warning people in the south of pharaoh to evacuate the hello. i am dire in jordan, this is not a 0 license though. and so coming at least 18 honest indians have been killed off of the most, they were sheltering and was hit by his really striking central garza demonstrations calling for an end to is really of tax and garza and 11 on.