listen to this special programming and correspondence across the country. both parties are looking for any small group they can get to put them over the top. god bless the united states of america are great. the us elections on, i want to see a one year on and the war and guns that shows no sign of abating. instead, conflict is spreading across the region and diplomacy has all the failed. so what's the likely result of the ongoing tension? could them at least be heading into a new era? this is inside store the welcome to the program and several then yay! israel's war on gaza has well and truly spilled over into the region for the 1st time since 2006. there are, is really boots on lebanese soil and is really were plains or destroying parts of

the country, south and east, as well as the capital. the route has belie aspiring garages of rockets into israel, almost daily humans who fees or targeting ships in the red sea. and earlier this week, launched missiles into central israel and iran. lynx armed groups in iraq have targeted israel all the while. the prospect of all that war with nuclear power, iran lose large. a range of diplomatic efforts has proved unsuccessful. peace has never seemed so far away. what leverage to countries such as the us, egypt and guitar still have, can israel destroyed hamas and hezbollah and would that end the war on guys? and if so, what's next? we'll hear from our guests in a moment. first though, this report from alex beard. the new daily reality for the liberties capital is ready. will planes leaving southern pay roads in flames and is residential buildings. boone is right. troops pushed through the

into southern living on his boat a fight as had been engaging them on the ground. and the group is still launching missiles across the board. these ready, prime minister maintains he is winning. and this a new middle east is on the horizon. and a whole mission. you don't see what the changing the strategic reality of the middle east. changing the balance of pol brings with it the possibility of creating new alliances in our region because of a simple reason. because we are winning our enemies and our friends. we tend to see israel is it really is a strong country, a determined country, a powerful country off of the car and, and gaza one year of the bottom and has left, the strip unrecognizable that they've told has now passed, 42000 and the palestinians who have survived face starvation and repeated force displacement. despite lying waste, the gaza. israel has yet to fulfill its station, will goals of destroying hum us and bringing home to captives. and as the conflict

spreads across the region, hopes for us these fire fighting the only, i'm the real danger that he's danger in the region is the policies of this government is right out of the options of this government of his ride and the failure of the international community to stop it and say enough, meanwhile is riley is destinations and strikes on a rainy and entries have brought the long time in the means closer to move out, conflicts, turnarounds, messiah tech one is viral. last week remains an onset despite different yahoos promise of retaliation. and is bethel is play house on sibley friends. domestic activity has be at the the pittsburgh with few, if any results is well friends and allies and the waste of becoming increasingly frustrated with its full on gaza. frances, one of the lights has to cool for a whole 2 old weapons exposed to israel for use in the strip. the united states has maintained was at close. i included support as well,

but media reports say in private president joe barton has labels amazing yahoo! a bad guy and was less than a month to go before the presidential election. it's unclear of washington's position will change, or what is vile plans to do next. well alex bid l g 0 for the inside story. so let's bring in our guess here and oh, we are joined by some of my dad founding director of the middle east and his law makes studies program george mason university and editor of jetta. leah online magazine in ramallah and the occupied westbank is mazda holiday. the director general of the palestine economic policy research institute and in london is to love it the senior policy fellow, the european council on foreign relations. welcome to inside story to all of you, but some will start with you. there's a lot of talk. i've re shaping them, at least at the moment, primarily from the is really 5 minutes that we just heard him in that report is really prime minister benjamin netanyahu. and he is

a known quantity. he's been in power 16 years cumulatively speaking since the mid nineties. is there anything in his track record that suggests he is capable of re shaping them, at least in any meaningful way? i don't think this is a solid prospect at all. we all know that is real today is on the high after the suppose a decapitation of has been on multiple fronts. is the kind of situation where in today gives not just israel, this emboldened bhaskar but also gives the united states. and the golden buster, which has indeed allowed a israel or is allowing israel and explicitly enquired launch in lebanon. it is also allowing israel a kind of a measured, but the forceful and powerful response to get on response to what is real data

prior. and i know that, you know, we are in a very difficult situation, but it could get far, far worse wars on a large scale beyond what we are seeing. the knots start quickly, but when they do the under knowns grow exponentially. and there's a host of factors that i'm hoping we can get into that for the payroll and turning what is happening into a, not just a broad regional board, but also can get to the international level you when benjamin netanyahu lays out his vision for a new middle east, he's not particularly detailed. what for the benefit of yours right at the outset of this conversation, what do we think he has in mind? what you get to know who has in mind 1st and foremost is what he's had in mind to the last year. that is his own political survival, and that is what will continue to, in my, you know, to dictate his way the actions going forward. now when it comes to the region,

we can, i think, get a hint of what missing what may be thinking from the speech he gave recently to you in general, 70 there. with again, here's the traditional approx of a map of the middle east. he made the ultimate for how is well and how the gold should create a new middle east and in order to and does police and order a stops paps for the palestinians. we all know that he's really the vision of the vision that he still has of a quite a is well, but he wants to cement it then continues to nothing wrong with this idea of being able to defeat his. but at potentially create a new let, the non free from it as these are all season, but then it extends the rest of them, at least with this idea as well with us support and support of others could start to roll back ranging in front and then finally, it ends in iran into ron, and severely weakening iran, potentially going off to its new care programs and potentially also trying to

somehow instigate everything change. okay, since you, you said he starts with the palestinians, let me take it to roger. roger holiday, joining us from ramada in southern notes that you shared with us headed to show you have mapped out. it was really interesting to read. actually you've kind of mapped out for plausible scenarios for where things could go from here. so for the palestinians, do you want to share that with our viewers, what you see is the kind of the 4 paths. so yeah, those are forested areas, which we've used the frame work we're doing now, which is a political economy analysis of published and in independence and development. we call it. and the idea here is a report that we'll look at more of the last year than the last 30 years, but in the context of less periods and trying to figure out what you know might be we might be facing in the coming to years. and that required us to try and look at

the politics of course. and that was in, in fact took us 2 factors. a both. what is real? i mean isn't pending. and we've heard, i think very correctly that you know, what is really intense. uh, has been declaring it's one to do, it's been doing and much, much more. so we have to assume a to a certain extent of potentially hostile is really a count adversary. and in this case, we have, for 2 of these scenarios are perhaps catastrophic or close to a possibly emerging from, but little less of that. and 2 of them are a bit more hopeful and, and, and assume a pathway or at least the promise of the 2 states. so there's another 2 we call the sudden shock scenario, which is one is increasing volatility and then no state solution. and a 2nd one which is progressive, attractive regression, which is basically an apartheid, a non non partition a reality. and each of these,

of course features has different features. and you know, we have a collapse the, a, we have listed in political, this unit, the uh, the, the rise or the continued control of the national religious block and israel cause of vacation of the west bank. and now we have a n, but we're sitting on the ground in the last few days in north gaza. you know, it makes this scenario. regrettably, the, and this is a, you know, one that could still lead to the ethnic cleansing of the posting and people. and, and post the other scenarios are, are perhaps less less, less dire. but none of them really indicate or we don't see the prospects that, you know, there's going to be a, the sort of political framing for any published in economic social recovery in the near future. for sure. okay, so that's really interesting because your work as an economist, that point out just remind our viewers and we will get to the economic aspect of this later in the discussion. but that you're, that's what your work centers on,

but you have to make the sort of working assumptions of where a palestinian territories could be headed from now. and scenarios one and 2, as you said, increasing volatility, no palestinian states, and an apartheid route reality in and even possibly worsening a scenario. and those you've just said or more likely. but some, when these really prime minister benjamin netanyahu addresses the united nations general assembly, as he did a couple of weeks ago, he really focuses more on the wider region has belong. he would obviously papers his speech with the words terrorist into arisen children of light versus children of darkness. and he shows us the map and it starts with a iran, and the entire region is dark, right. he likes to focus on iran. he likes to focus on iran allied groups and he likes to set the palestinian issue aside. he mentioned that very little actually in his speech is their annual review. the connection between how is real handle is the palestinian issue and then israel's place in the wider region. yes or no. i

mean, israel is trying to play right now. a different kind of game is trying to, but this also at the same time, continuing with it's a heinous crimes in let's that today we saw the beginning of the massacring of 60 people them because most themes about you in the north we see incursions in to the southern lebanon that are not always working very well in the founding of lebanon and, and bending, strike against it on. so there's nothing new about what israel is doing. it's an expansion, as, as buster is consistent with its decades of a military occupation in settler colonial existence and the region. but today, there is another factor and that factor actually was caused by the involved in meant that is real game death to destination or not for the law and the

decapitation of a good number of as the commanders. now it is willing to take more risks as well as the u. s. is also willing to support it and taking more risks and now it's looking for something that is far more then the limited goals that it has and 11 on and beyond. it's actually the wants to potentially, as we heard from nathan yahoo, advising the lebanese to actually can each other or is really what can every one of the risk that it wants to take away now is similar to what it things uh, was 1982 in pushing out the yellow from 11 on. and this is something that i'm happy to get into, but this is definitely a not a goal that it can actually achieve as well as in libby needs bar to hold on. but i'm because i was like community every thing you're saying is very relevant to the next part of our discussion. but i,

i would like to get an answer on this. is real acts like it can basically ignore the palestinian issue and or with the rest of the region as if there were 2 separate things that my question to you. you know, we heard so many western leaders who said the israel, at the same united nations general assembly, who said no, you need to fix the policy, an issue there needs to be a state that needs to be bouncing self determination. you won't get security until there is peace. and my question to you is, what do you make of this next us between the palestinian cause and israel's let's call them troubles across the region? i mean, they are getting and they're connected israel trying to the couple of them. and this, the coupling is now based on this idea that has been less willing to actually do what it didn't before, which is accept the separation or the coupling. and of course get on as well, but i do not think that these plans or these the coupling plans are likely to succeed beyond the very, very short term the united states. and israel have

a short window of opportunity which is a few weeks before the american elections, where this, the coupling might split them to the work. but this is certainly not something that is permanent. and as we will see, the unexpected or unintended consequences. for instance of an is ray, be hit against the and on mike actually the order the entire of a house of cards. here you co wrote an article called israel's unwinnable wars, the path to de escalation in the middle east. i think this is a major question. benjamin netanyahu presents is still promising total victory to his release. you're saying these words are not winnable. explain that is available in gaza. let's take that festival is not winnable to a military strategy. certainly is, so has been able conflict damage to having us getting a number of senior leadership, including many members as political. you just think also getting thousands likely

of its spices and demolishing how about this tunnel instruction. but what israel has not been able to do is for you to see, tell us know, for you all remaining is very hostages. so it is because they haven't caused that, that they will need to be a political track at some point. and you can make much the same. ok when it comes to that. the number again is though, has inflicted some mendez damage to has it but, but it will not be able to accomplish even it's mostly limited objectives when it comes to trying to get to is various displaced from those as well. by a headboard, a rocket fido. the letter to the seat has but and this again, argument can apply across the board anyway as well as actors, including the wrong. so we're going to have a cheese military legal process going forward when yeah, who's security chief, you know, huddled with him and they say boss, these are options on the table. this is what you can actually do according to our

intelligence assessments. so what do you think that looks like? what options is he given where he thinks this can be done to what i think this is the problem. some israel's perspective now it only has one option to address its security concerns and that is military action. the reason it only has admitted to the close of action is because this is where the comment and the governments that have come before it have consistently ignored or rejected. diplomatic pos, ways to resolve these by issues is though, has rejected, published in self determination. prime minister netanyahu has undermines these 5 books these way. the government has also projected a c 5, which has part of that appears to be on the table prior to as on this one is assassination, etc, etc, etc. so i think this is the fundamental issue that we will need to address raj. and since we're talking about re shaping the region, you're an economist. so you're trying to put numbers right on. certainly one part

of the region which is the policy and territories. and that's what your work has been focused on. we're talking about what the future might hold for. are we shipping the region you're trying to put numbers on what the last year has done, how the last year has re shaped a policy and territory? certainly the palestinian economy would have been your main findings as well. just before that i wanna add to this discussion. so the regional and the, the national, the because i think the, well, everything we've been talking about, the terms of that then you know, strategy to disconnect this, the unified so to speak, the front, the 3 here on israel, palestine and etc. loved it in front is shortly what he's trying to do, and we've seen that in various forms and, but i think what really counts as that as the sunset the organic will you, inc. and hence what happens in was fun is really what's going to determine what happens both in terms of israel's response and how is on deals with it. but more

importantly, how far it goes and love it. and so it's clearly now we have the north because of a issue to think about. it's not an issue anymore. it's now i think. and here's where i would would say that if you ask about military options that have been put on the table for guys in the military options that they appear to be know. following are those put by going to give her a i love. and which of basically are basically to exterminate the north regardless of the population, or at least expel it, and exterminate anybody who does not leave and rule that under military rule and take over the monetary existence of all of that. now that is not a military operation. as a genocidal village operation. and if we don't, you know, keep our eyes really focused on that. and i think that's therefore it, i think has about list keeping it on the focus. but that's why the, you know, there's not going to be a deep connection as long as the zeros between a genocide or because as far as of last year is concerned. you know,

i was talking to a colleague in un, or trying to do their modeling of the, the cost and basically, you know, you can, you can only talk about in terms of years 30 years of development loss of take the 18000000000 that the world bank estimated in terms of damage in the construction requirements, which was a, after 4 months of, of war and multiplied by 3 of those of its that sort of where that sort of the territory of 1500000 people. how do you provide temporary dom decent, temporary shelter for the, you know, the relief requirements have yet to be dealt with. these earliest have calculated that. if they're going to take over it as a humanitarian effort, it's like $5000000000.00, which is really what's in fact, this is costs so far to, to the international community in terms of just providing basic food, etc. but little that gets him, of course, to us. so you know, the numbers i, we can talk about the numbers as much as you know, but i don't think it's, you know, we don't really know the numbers bottom. and secondly,

the numbers are not what count. the question is, how to present the numbers in the end for being uncomfortable, which is where we're both where we're going and you read about the, the, the, the estimates of actual fatalities that will result from the war 17884005 the time all of the effects and in the next few years, it played out. but some, uh, a few minutes ago you were making a point on his blog. i interrupted you because i just wanted to wrap up the, the, the palestinian part of the discussion. i think we've done a good job of that and everybody seems to agree there is an excess. there isn't it connection? a very strong one between how is real deals with palestine and how is real then handles the rest of the region or handles itself within the rest of the region. what did you want to say about his blog as well? on the one hand, the decapitation theory is not extremely far off. in other words, hezbollah has actually been weekends, but based on the actual developments on the ground,

if you look at the field incursions into or aggression or attacks into lebanon, and from the southern border, or south east eastern border, they have not actually been as successful as israel claims, as we have seen in various reports, the bombing of baby woods, unfortunately, is met with helplessness because there is no way to stop what they are doing, but that actually doesn't constitute military progress. we have seen it very steady and measured a some a response from is ready or from has been a lot of kids over the past several days. similar to what we have seen before, that measured nature of response. that is actually, that can be quantified on the daily, in terms of the targets, except for the past few days. it's been actually heading more of a hurtful targets and has actually claimed a civilian deaths including just right now i'm, i'm watching the screens. so we are not sure the extent to which has the bullet has

been weakened in all cases. this idea that israel is going to launch an invasion that totally resemble the 1982 invasion in which it was to the b l. o is, is f as is tsr, because the p l o is one thing and as well as another, as well as an organic, a basic is, is a party lebanese party as an organic part of the social fabric overlapping on it is based on the largest community that lebanese community inside love and on this capabilities are far, far superior to those of the below and absolute or relative terms to those of israel compared to comparing a student some parts for a 2nd door. i want to make sure viewers understand the message here. israel went into southern ever known in the early eighty's to get rid of a palestinian arm group. and what they ended up with is a lebanese arm group referred to today as possibly the largest non states armed actor in the world. and they are fighting it. 40 years on, do we agree or? yes, yes. and this is the force, this is the party,

this is the community that is really wants to completely obliterate, or we can so much that it's no longer poses a threat, which is incredibly, a fantastic goal. it is not likely to take place in any way, shape or form out of this. you're actually literally year old and, and, and, and i late the, the entire or more of the liberties population. but more importantly, is this geostrategic level that is involved today in any attempt at activity of cutting out this objective, this filing out of control of this sort of attack pending also of course the attack on iran, which is likely to happen to the next hour to the next days might actually bring in other factors that we have not considered since the beginning of the genocide delagarza, which is basically the entry in one form or another of an assigned china. and we are also looking at a u. s. that is for the 1st time during the past year is actually concerned about

the u. s. or about israel's retaliation to the a tell you it shouldn't be, that'd be good on it. as we have heard from by them and others, they are concerned that israel should not hit the oil fields or the nuclear facilities because these would actually send what price is skyrocketing and the police because you know and has promised to respond by hitting us interest and the interest of us allies in the region which might turn this into much broader of the conflict than just that regional conflict. so while the hubris and the, the, their sort of the, the, the, the high end, the lation of israel to right now is, is evidence. i think lots of the plans and designs that we saw. nothing. yeah, hold actually in the map are more aspirational then actually realistic. okay, real quick cuz we have under 3 minutes left. hugh, if the conflicts plural continue on their current path,

current trend, what do you project? the kind is clear and it is a trend of regional. i'll give you my almost there already to and i should say certainly is israel does attack iran as we all expect. and that is a significant is where the attack against the are honest, we don't expect you around what time to 8 and these redwood candidate to that have asian. and so we will end up in this very dangerous cycle of expanding an exponential regional violence software, though it's still not too late. the diplomacy to look, but that will require a decisive change by the us and european governments to actually exist real pressure, little language against israel, to stop israel from escalating this further. russia, i'll give you the last word we have just letting you know we have less than a minute ago, but you are the epicenter of all of this and occupied palestinian territories. how

does it feel to you when you try to look ahead? um, you know where from where you're sitting, it will look the indiana to the israel and nothing you know has now comes to that, you know, to expect to enjoy from the international community because our devices in the west bank, whereas there appear to be certain constraints on and when it comes to regional and you know, turning it into a new regional or, or even a world war. i think that's what worries me to be honest because it means that he could well settle with some sort of. ringback a calming, let's say of the a from other than west bank and gaza even enforce lebanon has, will lead to accept that. and somehow, or another juvenile attraction, while continuing, basically to implement the plans they have for as the, as well as you know, what they can get away with in the west bank in terms of refugee camps, villages. it's after that might be now subject to greater pressure than even we've seen last year. so that's what we're thinking about. right gentleman,

that's the time we have for today. thanks to all our guests but somehow dad roger holiday and he would love it. and thank you to for watching, can see the program again any time by visiting our website, that's alpha 0 dot com. and for further discussion good or our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a j inside store. you can also join the conversation on x r handle. there is at aging inside story from me. so then yay! and the whole team here in doha bye. for now the devastation. bangladesh is usually in the top 5 countries as the most valuable country in the world. displacement if you look at tucker city, it's unbelievable desperation, the leaving on a freedom is your life in the stock reality of climate change in a rapidly sinking country. we have the problem today. the rest of the work will

have it tomorrow, and they will have to learn from us dying a life before land on i, which is 0. as we know what's happening, i recently know has to get some places that others tend on fear god by that on purpose. as far as the way that you tell the story is what can make a difference as the world economy those strikes are those with a strong result. indonesia is where such resolve about the right place for your business to get off the upgrade. otherwise, on with this strategic downstream industry on the client. your better tomorrow

the the hello, i'm tell mccrae, this is the news. how i live from dog hot coming up in the next 60 minutes. bulls to run for their lives as ready, ground forces, nice each to northern garza, for a 5th day, 64 people are killed in military strikes across the street. another explosion is heard and viruses as well. pounds, the liberties capital for another nice is full of pounds as well with thousands of rockets, 2 people are killed and 12 others injured. some of them in serious condition. you as president you a bond and then is ready. prime minister benjamin netanyahu holding.