place to the from honda san jose to cities became connected to the interior in an award winning film, which is 0 was his historians. and i'd witness accounts that portray early 20th century by this time as a thriving fibers. the reach of was open investments were excess, moving from one city to another, kind of styling 1920. on al jazeera, a one year old and the war in guns. it shows no sign of abating. instead, conflict is spreading across the region and diplomacy has all that failed. so what's the likely result of the ongoing tension? could the middle east be heading into a new era? this is inside story. the

welcome to the program. i'm sort of in, yay israel's war on gaza has well and truly spilled over into the region for the 1st time since 2006. there are, is really boots on lebanese soil and is really were plains or destroying parts of the country, south and east, as well as the capital bay route has belie aspiring barrages of rockets into israel, almost daily humans who fees or targeting ships in the red sea and earlier this week, launched missiles into central israel and iran, lynx armed groups in iraq have targeted israel all the while. the prospect of all that war with nuclear power, iran lose large. a range of diplomatic efforts has proved successful peace has never seemed so far away. what leverage to countries such as the us, egypt and guitar still have, can israel destroyed hamas and hezbollah and would that end the war on guys? and if so, what's next? we'll hear from our guest in a moment 1st though, this report from alex beard. the new daily

reality for the liberties capital is ready will plains, leaving southern by roads in flames. and is residential buildings. boone is riley troops pushed through the into southern liber non has bought a fight as have been engaging them on the ground. and the group is still launching missiles across the board. these ready, prime minister maintains he is winning and that's a new middle east is on the horizon, the new it doesn't see what the changing the strategic reality of the middle east changing the balance of pol brings with it the possibility of creating new alliances in our region is because of a simple reason because we are winning our enemies and our friends, which hope to see israel is it really is a strong country, a determined country, a powerful country. and in gaza, one year of the bottom and has left the strip unrecognizable. the def told has now passed 42000 and the palestinians who have survived face starvation and

repeated force displacement. despite lying waste, the gaza is round his gate to fulfill it stays will goals of destroying homos and bringing home to captives. and as the conflict spreads across the region, hopes for us, these fire fighting the only and the real danger that he's danger in the region is the policies of this government of his right out of the options of this government of his ride. and the failure of the international community to stop it and say enough, meanwhile is riley is destinations and strikes on a rainy and entries have brought the long time enemies closer to move out. conflicts, turnarounds, masala tech on israel last week remains an onset despite different yahoos promise of retaliation. and is bethel is play house on sibley friends. diplomatic activity has been at the the pittsburgh with few, if any results is well friends and allies and the waste of becoming increasingly frustrated with its full on gaza. frances, one of the lights has to cool for

a whole to old weapons exposure to israel for use in the strip. the united states has maintained. will that close? i included support as well. but media reports say in private president joe barton has labels amazing. yahoo! a bad guy and was less than a month to go before the presidential election. it's unclear of washington's position will change, or what is vile plans to do next. alex bid l g 0 for the inside story. so let's bring in our guess here and oh, we are joined by some of my dad founding director of the middle east and his law mich studies program at george mason university and the editor of jetta, leah online magazine, and ramallah and yankee pied westbank is mazda of holiday, the director general of the palestine economic policy research institute and in london is to love it to senior policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations. welcome to inside story to all of you, but some will start with you. there's a lot of talk every shaping them,

at least at the moment, primarily from these really 5 minutes that we just heard him in that report is really prime minister benjamin netanyahu. and he is a known quantity. he's been in power 16 years cumulatively speaking since the mid ninety's. is there anything in his track record that suggests he is capable of re shaping them, at least in any meaningful way? i don't think this is a solid prospect at all. we all know that it is real today is on the high after the suppose a decapitation of hezbollah on multiple fronts is the kind of situation where in today gives not just israel. this emboldened foster but also gives the united states and the golden buster, which has indeed allowed a israel or is allowing israel and explicitly it card launch in lebanon. it is

also allowing israel a kind of a measured, but the forceful and powerful response to get on response to what this real did prior. and i know that, you know, we are in a buggy difficult situation, but it could get far, far worse wars on a large scale beyond low to i, seeing, do not start quickly, but when they do the under knowns grow exponentially. and there is a host of factors that i'm hoping we can get into that what they are role in training. what is happening into not just a broad regional board, but also can get to the international level you when benjamin netanyahu lays out his vision for a new middle east. he's not particularly detailed what for the benefit of yours right at the outset of this conversation, what do we think he has in mind? what get to know who has in mind 1st and foremost is what he's had in mind to the

last year. that is his own political survival, and that is what will continue to, in my, you know, dictate his way the actions going forward. not when it comes to the region. we can, i think get a hint of what i'm guessing, what maybe thinking from the speech he gave recently to you in general, something there with again, here's the traditional props of a map of the middle east. he made the ultimate for how isabel and how the gold should create a new middle east and in order to and there's police and order a stops perhaps for the palestinians. we all know that he's really vision of the vision that he still has of a, quite a israel, but he wants to cement it then continues to nothing wrong with this idea of being able to defeat his but up at potentially create a new let the non free from it as these are all season, but then it extends to the rest of them, at least with this idea as well with us support and the support of others could start to roll back,

raining interests. and then finally ends in iran into ron and severely weakening iran, potentially going off to its new care programs and potentially also trying to somehow instigate everything change. okay, since you, you said he starts with the palestinians, let me take it to roger. roger holiday, joining us from ramada in southern notes that you shared with us headed to show you have mapped out. it was really interesting to read. actually you've kind of mapped out for plausible scenarios for where things could go from here. so for the palestinians, do you want to share that with our viewers, what you see is the kind of the 4 paths. so yeah, those are forested areas, which we've used the frame work we're doing now, which was a political economy analysis of published and in independence and development. we call. and the idea here is a report that looked at more of the last year than the last 30 years. but in the context of last period and trying to figure out what you know might be we might be

facing in the coming to years. and that it required us to try and look at the politics of course. and that was in, in fact took us 2 factors. a both. what is real? i mean isn't pending. and we've heard, i think very correctly that you know, what is really intense. uh, has been declaring as one to do, it's been doing and much, much more. so we have to assume a to a certain extent of potentially hostile is really a comp adversary. and in this case, we have 4 to the scenarios, or perhaps catastrophic or close to possibly emerging from but little less that in 2 of them are a bit more hopeful and, and, and assume a pathway or at least the promise of the 2 states. so there's another 2 we call the sudden shock scenario, which is one is increasing volatility and

a no state solution. and a 2nd one which is a good, attractive regression which is basically an apartheid, a non non partition a reality. and each of these, of course of features has different features. and you know, we have a collapse the, a, we have power listed in political, this unit, the, uh, the, the rise or the continued control of the national religious blocking. israel gods, the vacation of the west bank, and now we have at the end, but we're seeing on the ground in the last few days in north garza, you know, it makes this scenario. regrettably, the, and this is a, you know, one that could still lead to the ethnic cleansing, of the posting and people, and, and impose on the other scenarios are, are perhaps less less dire. but none of them really indicate or we don't see the prospects that, you know, there's going to be a, a, the sort of political framing for any bi listed in economic social recovery in the near future for sure. okay,

so that's really interesting because your work as an economist said point i just remind our viewers and we will get to the economic aspect of this later in the discussion. but that you're, that's what your work centers on. but you have to make you sort of working assumptions of where palestinian territories could be headed from now. um and scenarios one and 2 as you said, increasing volatility, no palestinian states and an apartheid route reality in and even possibly worsening a scenario. and those you've just said, or more likely, but some, when the is really prime minister benjamin netanyahu address is the united nations general assembly. as he did a couple of weeks ago, he really focuses more on the wider region has belong, he would obviously papers his speech with the words terrorist into arisen children of light versus children of darkness. and he shows us the map and it starts with iran and the entire region is dark, right. he likes to focus on iran. he likes to focus on iran allied groups, and he likes to set the palestinian issue aside. he mentioned it very little

actually in his speech is there in your view, a connection between how is real handles the palestinian issue and then israel's place in the wider region. yes or no. i mean, israel is trying to play right now, a different kind of game it is trying to, but this also at the same time, continuing with it's a heinous crimes. in a headset today, we saw the beginning of a domestic rating of 60 people them because most themes about the, on the north, we see incursions in to the southern lebanon that are not always working very well and the founding, overlapping on and bending strike against it. on the there's nothing new about what israel is doing. it's an expansion is buster, is consistent with its decades of a military occupation and subtler colonial existence and the region. but today,

there is another factor, and that factor actually was caused by the involved in meant that is real game death to destination of most of the law and the, the compensation of a good number of hezbollah commanders. now it is willing to take more risks as well as the u. s. is also willing to support it and taking more risks and now it's looking for something that is far more then the limited goals that it has and 11 on and beyond. it's actually wants to potentially, as we heard from nathan yahoo, advising the lebanese to actually can each other or is really look at every one of the risk that it wants to take away. now is similar to what it things was 1982 in pushing out the yellow from 11 on. and this is something that i'm happy to get into, but this is definitely a not

a goal that it can actually achieve as well as maybe needs bar to the bottom because i would like community. every thing you're saying is very relevant to the next part of our discussion, but i, i would like to get an answer on this is real acts like it can basically ignore the palestinian issue and or with the rest of the region as if there were 2 separate things that my question to you, you know, we heard so many western leaders who said this real at the same united nations general assembly, who said, no, you need to fix the policy an issue there needs to be a state that needs to be policies, self determination, you won't get security until there is peace. and my question to you is, what do you make of this next us between the palestinian cause and israel's let's call them troubles across the region? i mean, they are organic, they're connected israel trying to the couple of them. and this, the coupling is now based on this idea that has been lives willing to actually do what it did in the for which is accept the separation or the coupling. and of course get on as well,

but i do not think that these plans or these the coupling plans are likely to succeed beyond the very, very short time the united states. and israel have a short window of opportunity which is a few weeks before the american elections, where this, the coupling might split them to the work. but this is certainly not something that is permanent. and as we will see, the unexpected or unintended consequences. for instance of an is ray, be hit against the and on mike activity ordered entire of a house of cards. here you co wrote an article called israel's unwinnable wars, the path to de escalation in the middle east. i think this is a major question. benjamin netanyahu presents is still promising total victory to his release. you're saying these words are not winnable, explain that is available in gaza. let's take that festival is not winnable to a military strategy. certainly is or has been able to inflict damage to having us

getting a number of senior leadership, including many members as politically just because the kidding 1000 is likely of its spices and demolishing how about this tunnel instruction. but what is, what has not been able to do is for you to see time us know for you all remaining is very hostages. so it is cuz they haven't caused that, that they will need to be a political track at some point. i don't, you can make much the same. ok when it comes to that. the number again is though, has a good, some meniscus damage to has it but but it will not be able to accomplish even it's mostly limited objectives when it comes to trying to get to is various displaced from the north as well by a headboard. a rocket fido, but that's what the, the seat has. but, and this again, argument can apply across the board anyway, is what was actors including the wrong. so we're going to have a cheese,

military legal process going forward with that. yeah. who's security chief, you know, huddled with him and they say boss, these are options on the table. this is what you can actually do according to our intelligence assessments. so what do you think that looks like? what options is he given where he thinks this can be done? that's what i think this is the problem. seeing some, israel's perspective now it only has one option to address its security concerns and that is military action. the reason it only has a military closed in action is because this is where the government and the governments that have come before it have consistently ignored or rejected diplomatic pos, ways to resolve these very issues is though, has rejected policy and self determination. prime minister netanyahu has undermines these 5 books these way. the government has also projected us these 5, this has bought, that appears to be on the table prior to as on this one is assassination, etc, etc,

etc. so i think this is the fundamental issue that we will need to address. roger, since we're talking about re shaping the region, you're an economist, so you're trying to put numbers right on. certainly one part of the region which is the palestinian territories. and that's what your work has been focused on. we're talking about what the future might hold for. we shipping the region, you're trying to put numbers on what the last year has done, how the last year has re shaped the policy and territory. certainly the palestinian economy would have been your main findings as well just before that i wanna add to this discussion. so the regional and the, and the national, the because i think the, well, everything we've been talking about, the terms of that then you know, strategy to disconnect this, the unified so to speak, the front, the 3 are on israel, post on etc. 11 in front is shortly what he's trying to do, and we've seen that in various forms and,

but i think what really counts as that as the subset they organically link enhance . what happens in was fun is really what's going to determine what happens both in terms of israel's response and how is on deals with it. but more importantly, how far it goes and love it. and so it's clearly now we have the north because of a issue to think about a, it's not an issue anymore. it's now i think. and here's where i would would say that if you ask about military options that have been put on the table for causing the military options that they appear to be know. following are those put by going to get or a i like. and which of basically are basically to exterminate the north to gaza civil population, or at least expel it, and exterminate anybody who does not leave and rule that under military rule and, and take over you mandatory assistance and all of that. now that is not a military operation as a genocidal village operation. and if we don't, you know, keep our eyes really focused on that. and i think that's therefore it i think has

about, let's keep it gets us focused. but that's why the, you know, there's not going to be a deep connection as long as israel's, between a genocide or because as far as of last year is concerned. you know, i was talking to a colleague in un, or trying to do their modeling of the, the cost and basically, you know, you can, you can only talk about in terms of years 30 years of development loss of take the 18000000000 that the world bank estimated in terms of damage in the construction requirements and which was a, after 4 months of, of war and multiplied by 3 of those of its, that sort of where and that sort of the territory of 1500000 people. how do you provide temporary dom decent, temporary shelter for the, you know, the relief requirements have yet to be dealt with. these earliest have calculated that. if they're going to take over it as a humanitarian effort, it's like $5000000000.00, which is really what, in fact this is costs so far to, to the international community in terms of just providing basic food, etc. but little that gets there and of course diversity. so you know,

the numbers i, uh, we can talk about the numbers as much as you know, but i don't think it's now we don't really know the numbers one. and secondly, the numbers are not what count. now the question is how to prevent the numbers and, and for being uncomfortable, which is where we're both where we're going. you read about the, the, the, the estimates of actual fatalities that will result from the war 17884000. by the time all of the effects and the next few years of play though. but some, uh, a few minutes ago you were making a point on his blog, i interrupted you because i just wanted to wrap up the, the, the palestinian part of the discussion. i think we've done a good job of that and everybody seems to agree there is an excess there isn't it connection? very strong, one between how is real deals with palestine and how is real then handles the rest of the region or handles itself within the rest of the region. what did you want to say about his blog as well? on the one hand,

the decapitation of theory is not extremely far off. in other words, hezbollah has actually been weakened, but based on the actual developments on the ground, if you look at the field incursions into or aggression or attacks into lebanon, from the southern border or south east eastern border, they have not actually been as successful as israel claims, as we have seen in various reports, the bombing of baby woods, unfortunately, is met with helplessness because there is no way to stop what they are doing, but that actually doesn't constitute military progress. we have seen it very steady and measured a some a response from is ready or from has been a lot of kids over the past several days. similar to what we have seen before, that measured nature of response. that is actually, that can be quantified on the daily, in terms of the targets, except for the past few days. it's been actually heading more of

a heartful targets and has actually claimed a civilian deaths including just right now i'm, i'm watching the screens. so we are not sure the extent to which has the bullet has been weakened in all cases. this idea that israel is going to launch an invasion the toilet resembled the 1982 invasion in which it was to the b l. o is, is f as is p s r, because the p l o is one thing. and as well as another, as well as an organic, a basic is a, is a party lebanese party. as an organic part of the social fabric opened up and on. it is based on the largest community that liberties community insides up in on its capabilities are far, far superior to those of the b l. o. in absolute or relative terms to those of israel compared companion to the sounding pause for a 2nd door. i want to make sure of yours understand the message here. israel went in to set another known in the early eighty's to get rid of a palestinian arm group. and what they ended up with is a lebanese arm group referred to today as possibly the largest non states armed

actor in the world. and they are fighting it. 40 years on, do we agree us? yes, yes. and this is the force, this is the party, this is the community that is really wants to completely obliterate, or we can so much that they no longer poses a threat, which is incredibly, a fantastic goal that it is not likely to take place in any way shape or form, unless you're actually literally year old and, and, and, and i late the, the entire or more the liberties population. but more importantly, is this geostrategic level that is involved today in any attempt at activity of cutting out this objective, this pilot being out of control of this sort of attack pending also of course the attack on iran, which is likely to happen to the next hour to the next days might actually bring in other factors that we have not considered since the beginning of the genocide

delagarza, which is basically the entry in one form or another of an assigned china. and we are also looking at a u. s. that is for the 1st time during the past year, is actually concerned about the u. s. or about israel's retaliation to the evaluation because we get on as we haven't heard from by them and others, they are concerned that israel should not hits the oil fields or the nuclear facilities because these would activities send uh, oil prices skyrocketing, not least because get on has promised to respond by hitting us interest and the interest of us allies in the region, which might turn this into much broader of the conflict than just the regional conflict. so while the hubris and the, the, their sort of the, the work behind the lation of israel right now is, is evidence. i think lots of the plans and designs that we saw. nothing. yeah, hold actually in the map are more aspirational then actually domestic. okay,

real quick cuz we have under 3 minutes left, hugh, if the conflicts plural continue on their current path, current trend, what do you project? the right kind is clear and it is a trend of all it's regional. i'll give you my almost there already there. i should say, certainly is israel does attack it wrong as we all expect, and that is a significant, he's way the attack against the are honest, we don't expect it wrong with what time. the 8 and these redwood candidate to that have asian. and so we will end up in this very dangerous cycle of expanding an exponential regional violence software, though it's still not too late the diplomacy to work, but that will require a decisive change by the us and european governments to actually exist. little

pressure will leverage against these route to stop as well. so escalating this further? broadly, i'll give you the last word we have just letting you know we have less than a minute ago. but you are the epi center of all of this and occupied palestinian territories. how does it feel to you when you try to look ahead and you know where from where you're sitting. it will look into unity, the, the israel and nothing you know, has now comes to that, you know, expect to enjoy from the international community. but if you go to the, the, on the west side, whereas there appear to be certain constraints on when it comes to regional and, you know, turning it into in the regional war or even a world war. i think that's what worries me to be honest because it means that he could well settle with some sort of a, a calming, let's say of the a from other than west bank and gaza, even enforce lebanon as well. loved to accept that and somehow or another juvenile attraction, while continuing basically to implement the funds they have for as the,

as well as you know, what they can get away with in the west bank in terms of refugee camps, villages cetera. that might be now subject to greater pressure than even we've seen in the last year. so that's what we're thinking about. all right, gentlemen, that's the time we have for today. thanks to all our guests but some honda roger holiday and he will love it. and thank you to for watching, can see the program again any time by visiting our website, that's alpha 0 dot com. and for further discussion good or our facebook page that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on the x r handle. there is at a jake inside story for me several then yay! and the whole team here in doha bye for now the this is a region that is likely to be develop thing, but it's one also that is afflicted 5 conflicts, police blocks. we try to balance the stories, the good,

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high for me. the endo, on the top stories and all of his era. hurricane molten has made land full in the us state of florida. the categories re storms where it is showing it's devastating power was tornadoes, reaching destruction. officials, a warning of attempts wins, and a life threatening storm surge. my file message tonight is to the people of florida and all the impact of states. we've got your back, we've got your back. come on, i will be there for as long as it takes to rescue, recover and rebuild.