a service collateral damage has collateral damage. that's the reality is leading to what we're seeing that will allow me to push back for a moment. corporate is real effective. it's a little bit branding from the us elections to the escalating conflict in the middle east upfront to attend for a new season. setting the stage for serious debates upfront with mont, for the mont hale analogies era. can you change the course of israel's war on god's adults advisory board? he has a cue this governance of doing to level and says if must work with other european countries to prevent a larger conflict. but with the us being the main player. what leverage if any, is your pat this is inside, so the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm sort of in a european countries have been under pressure to get more involved in the ongoing conflict in the middle east. almost all you countries showed unequivocal support for israel following a mazda of attack on october the 7th. but as it's released this pounding of guns that carries on many has started to shift some even going as far as imposing arms and bar goes on. israel with us government has been criticized from within for not doing enough in this conflict and early to join with other european countries to stop the conflict from spreading further. nice idea. but how does that become a reality? we'll go to our guest in a moment 1st though, this report from alex beard. i said destruction and know in in size. it's a national if it's the end as rails. one guys i have so far failed. and the new reports by an advisory body to the dots pilot and sees the nathan's and other european countries. i haven't done enough. it says the current situation in the mid

least is due to decades of negligence by the international community, including the influence. it's also called for a tougher response to is vile and recognition of the palestinian state. it's a stones that has gradually gaining the main some across europe with a new push for recognition of a pellet city in states across the continent. this year, ireland, norway, slovenia, and spain joined to move in a dozen european countries who now recognized palestinian statehood and as well as with length as bombardment of gauze and now living on drinks on the mall had begun to question their relations with israel. french president manuel the crown is the light, is the cold for a hold to um, deliveries to israel. while the u. k. has also announced that suspending some exports slicing the risk they could be used in breach of international humanitarian . the gemini, however,

is steadfast. it's the 2nd biggest exposure of weapons to israel off to the united states and has made it clear that's most about to change. the problem we have supplied with and, and we will supply weapons. that's the position of the german government. i will not violate the security council's secrecy meals with my decisions in the government, and that will also ensure that there will be further deliveries in the near future . i don't get the call from vets. in spite of legal questions, like a dog. what referred bill then to the international court of justice in april, accusing us of breaching the united nations genocide convention. meanwhile, the european union has called for sci fi and both gaza and living on, but hasn't been involved in any talks. the 1st find is ceasefire. is it is not the ceasefire. nothing else will work a lot in order to have ceasefire. we need to fight against impunity. duluth, all actors in dissolving,

to respect international and the number of collateral damage created today. she really and particularly ation, you're living on have to take into account just not the case. those calls have continued to full of dispute. as european latent struggles to define what role they should be playing and israel's conflicts which have now claims tens of thousands of lives of experience l g 0. the inside story that's bringing our guests now from brussels. we're joined by james moran, a former europe and union in bassett, or to egypt, jordan and human. it's also an associate senior research fellow at the center for european policy studies. in casablanca, morocco is a manual, retrieving president of the institute of european perspective and security, and a former political advisor to the french extra of defense. and in to lose france is lex pack and berg. the senior advisor on the question of palestine program at the

arab rene signs for democracy and development. thank tech. a welcome. all of you to inside story, mr. moran. let's start with you. you were, as i said, you in baset are to multiple countries in the middle east. why is europe such a non factor in this conflict? a non fact to europe has a great deal of interest and involvement in the region over the years. but it's right to say that it's certainly not in prime position as like the 1st of all, if any in the us recently because he saw the guys a now or never at all as well. but there are bottom europe, your interest in the state, and that has been a shift in europe and opinion visual reflection on the last few months away from the almost don't qualify and so forth as well. which one of the alternative, the cents tax divisions of that. so and a, uh we'll take a mountain decline to come back. and i'm to on that. so is the vision's kind of,

you have a con, the possibilities for your to have leverage. inevitably limited the possession of germany, a space, the costs, and that historical experience, it goes back to the all the costs. and that is a very difficult of stone to shift in terms of german opinions and the doctor as well. even though the you mentioned in your book, even though the advisory group has been asking me to follow into changes approach adopts to uh, pretty well in line with the israel as all some other countries in europe. whereas will be honest, i do have a lot of interest say you have all those who are very much concerned to have a balanced available, the phone due to the position when it comes to at least a. so we all divided and you're still public opinion has been shifted as we saw last week. if you are being counsel there. awesome. really important new concerns that are come into play to let me take this to lex. uh, james mentioned the germans, the dutch uh,

what sparked our interest today. lex was this dutch report by a body that advises both the dutch government and the dutch parliament. right. and the report s and said, we've been getting this wrong. we haven't been doing enough. and we need to be stricter on israel and feel free to correct me if you think i'm paraphrasing this wrong with. that's how i read the report. the report recommends recognizing palestinian statehood recommends an arms embargo. and his real if is really is violating international law and recommends partly suspending the association agreement with his real that names straight. that means trait. this is important stuff is that, does that reflect the mood in the metal? it's well indeed i was, i was thinking about it when you spoke to the experts that are on that committee are uh, uh, international relations and, and legal, uh and uh, and so on. a fast uh, specialist that are reading and following what's happening in the,

in the middle east. the ground came in palestine, israel lebanon, and bill cannot come up with uh, with uh, uh, and with, with, you know, what better there was other confusion send. busy the, again, the point is that they have made uh, the fact that the dutch government is not likely to, uh, to actual, uh, take, take up these uh, these recommendations immediately, especially with the, the current uh, quite uh, quite right wing coalition is a manifestation of indeed a number of european countries. sure. you mentioned drum. i made another was it to the uh, u. k, that are still sort of close to uh to, to, to as well. uh, but indeed, so i agree which the previous speaker changes in the air and european politicians

are increasingly becoming uncomfortable. one of the, one of the main structure said, has kept them in checklist fear for being branded off and december. it gives them, in case of criticizing israel, now they will have to choose between 2 evils and 2 separate to some on the wrong one hand, on the other hand, be complicit in the crimes forms against humanity, a bar tried genocide. and also, i'm not, i'm using stories that says, you know what, that's something really interesting that actually hopefully we will come back to how politicians. i mean, i don't mean states, but i mean, individual politicians who have a career to think about who have elections to think about how they need to think about, you know, how they wanna manage their career. you said that they're afraid of being represented anti semitic. and they're also afraid of essentially finding themselves on the wrong side of history. if they defend something that's, that can be called a pos, apartheid genocide, mass murder, things like that. so we'll come back to that in

a 2nd. anybody who has an opinion on that will be very welcome. later in this discussion. and men really want to come to you because frances, such an interesting case study french president the menu on the back home after october, the 7th embraced israel and the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu. a year later, it is a very different picture. he is one of a handful of european leaders that is calling for international arms embargoes and international arms embargo on israel. explain to us what happened and why as well. first of all, the position of america is always, that's the, that's a difficult to understand in tune to mind is a, yup, it re gets pretty pricey going from one side to the other thing that the same one thing seen a and that in almost a very short period of time, but what is essential it that's good dream. the this change of what is your fault is up on the position of false after the 7 of october was a full kitchen supports to a israel,

a binding by the optical 50. 1 of the shots of you know, the nation is that have the rights to defend itself. how much is a choice of ization and will do all that is possible to help is wrote in that perspective. having in mind that there was amongst the 200 more than 250 outages, more than 1012 a french cycle is a message that's the important issue. but everything has changed with the lab or not. that is, i think a new group and both of my store, the position of frost in regards to big. i mean, you know, this is very hard to position of admin. and my call in regard to the prime minister of nathaniel is regarding love or not. not only regarding god knows it, i think a clear commitment. the comment in our house goes in our cargo right is not just in arms embargo for lebanon. it's an arms embargo. yeah, but know me lies. it was real globally. and they will know that the embargo concerning the owns a. the problems that trust is sending to is read is absolutely not essential. it's

0.2 percent of the the expectation of what the the what that is the yeah. 90 percent of the things do not come from from where you are the comes from united states. so it's very symbolic. it was an easy page. that is a catch if i may say, so that's not the such report. this, such a board is strong abiding by the resolution 701 of 2006, the resolution 1569 of 2004. and the type agreement that you and, and very strong commitment that is room as not as it has been done already into apartment 612 to boulder and evade 11 on that is why is it position of thoughts as shifted in evaluation the symbolic way yesterday, at the 11 on release conference. remember i could push one step forward, saying that's been been your turn. you must have in mind that a front bumper youth is not the great civilization as the payments to his real estate. a few days ago that she was reading and the engage and the civilization

civilization was this james around, i want to talk a little bit more about germany to sort of complete this, this landscape. you mentioned the divisions within europe. you said you have countries like spain on the one hand, now drawing by france when it comes to calling for an orange and bar go. and you have countries like germany and netherlands on the other hand, which have shown a much closer, much stronger support for israel, including up to now the german position. i mean, anyone can understand that due to the nazi holocaust, that that is what really roots and grounds the german support for israel. but we're in 2024. and i think what some of our viewers who don't live in europe are not going to understand is you know, how the historic events as dark and tragic as they were in the 1940s or shaping so strongly. germany's position today and 2024.

yeah, so i agree on the facebook and it doesn't make a great deal of sense when you look at the job interest and this of the fallout from what's going on at the moment. but i think john, a negative to be counter is on like this. i mean, we have a problem because with the energy in europe, it could get worse. it is right, is that it will reach on the next attack on the wrong people. worried about that and new energy prices are some sort emerging from that. we have a problem every way with the migration. there's an obsession. everywhere with a regular migration, germany is no exception. the fall arrived in germany had been paying on the how to gaining a great deal of what's happening in less than on right now. it's very important that we have, we see hundreds of thousands of syrian refugees pushed over the border. this will add to migration pressures in the media long to johnny should be concerned about that. but we have a problem also in the longer it goes on like this, radicalization and so on. not necessarily directly from the players of the region, but from others. back to us who will use of the genocide is going all of them over

the ga, certainly attacks. another long has reasons to solve out the sounds of telecom varies and so lots and lots of issues like that, which is how lot dimensions, right? the, the o g, a tax site, and let's see, the drum and trade as was european trade directly raising trade cost. so there are many, many reasons objectively why you would think the germany would reconsider it's uncle advisable to his route. however, that doesn't seem to be happening right at the moment. okay. we've looked at the divisions within europe. i think, i think, and i think we've made those clear now, and that's certainly a factor of why you are, can not speak in a unified voice. and we heard in that report by alex beard earlier. you know, you heard josette burrell, the chief of european diplomacy, say one thing. and then you heard the german chancellor essentially take another completely opposite position. but, but lex, what you mentioned earlier about what politicians now need to navigate and the sort of the mind feels on the one hand in europe. there is always the danger. if you're

not supporting israel, that you could be accused of anti semitism. and that remains very real and our viewers who don't live in europe, i think, would do well to understand that. on the other hand, there's this other emerging threat to political career is which has to be on the wrong side of history, or indeed uh uh, and then the casing point is the recent uh un general assembly resolution adopted in, in the middle of september. uh and nor seeing the i see j advisory opinion advising there generally the, the general assembly on the, in the data to uh, off the occupation and the settlement enterprise. now, not only was this resolution adults, it was an overwhelming majority of 124 states,

but only 2 u member states totaled against the czech republic and hungary, sir to your states stoddard in favor and the others including germany, austria, the netherlands, antilles. brawls were sitting on the fence, you know, uh f saved uh and sure, uh uh for me this is a sort of an extremely or decision, extremely powerful resolution. uh instruction is relatively easy. all of the occupied territories including gaza, including these drawers and then there was interest amongst to evacuate all the settlements instructing. uh, uh oh you, when that understood not to operate made changes in legal situation. unprecedentedly strong language from the un general. busy assembly i

roger then voting against which will, which we both have extracted from the states that i mentioned. they decided it's true to, to upstate, in other words, to sort of by themselves time. and this is usually in view office, you know, uh from sir uh, off uh, off leading politicians and in europe in countries about being in the wrong side officially. so we are a process of change and, and reconsideration recalibration so to speak. let's address what kind of leverage europe could if it wanted, bring to bear to the conflict in the middle east. and james will come to you in a moment because i know you wrote an article with, with the various ways this could be implemented. let's start with this one in the arms, arms supplies and potential arms embargo and mentoring. you have a security and defense focus. you did mention earlier that france calling for an

arms and bar go really is low hanging political fruit because they don't actually supply many weapons to israel. that is true. but then if you start adding up france spain, calling for the arms embargo the u. k. suspending some a minority but some of its weapons licenses to israel. what you see is potential momentum building towards a broader arms embargo for israel. do you see that a significant as well? so that means that the pressure is under the states, but i do not see this as a reality the united states up to 2 weeks ago to provide 3500000000. so the more dollars of school committed to is live. and i'm not sure that there is a difference of good difference between a vice president. i was, i'm a ex president. don't all. i see that the cost and support as it was seen in congress. the vote last june, amongst and $95000000000.00 of dollars of a around the world. most of it's of course for trade,

but also for taiwan and disagree. g of the border with mexico. $14000000000.00 were provided. um, but what were promised by united states in the upcoming year. so i do not see that pressuring or leverage leverage of the nato states. and this, the thing to, to natal, i do see if that is an outcome a maybe came on your team position a, have you, i'm the jump in for a quick 2nd. your argument is, is, is very clear. and i, and i think everybody will fully understand what you're saying. so long as the united states is by far the main supplier weapons to israel. it doesn't really matter whether france, spain, um, we did mention germany, they're not, they're not stopping their arms exports. but let's just assume for the sake of argument, even if they did, israel would still be getting most of its weapons. but the question, there's a lot of question then there's a sub question to that is,

what about building momentum towards an arms embargo? i know to the currently for us senators are now actually in favor of the us a suspending or stopping its exports to the us. so in this hypothetical scenario, europe is not so much uh, a un arms killer. but what it could do is get the ball rolling on the idea of an arms and bar, though that's my question. yeah, but does it mention you mention it to the fact that there was a, a very strong support to vote. a voice full of probably seen, i say it, but it's in the budget to miss you. and i hope that a genuine mindset. we still have one. i'm not sure that's a successor actual as a represent how we present a different fund buddy. so if you guys cut out, we have to have the same position as a go ahead, what's the cost increase? having a different position from the presidents of the commission. you'll see the delay

and there was a lot of differences amongst the it you the european union council, the presidency of the you've been don't the counsel and you can union with 5 minister, a 105 minutes to maybe with the new the successful maybe don't know the cost would be more supportive to israel then maybe don't, don't be as supportive as is israel. then prime minister of premise. um i'm, i'm a 5 minutes from i. i'm hungry. so you just, you do have to have in mind that your is not a unique and sore organization. there are lots of different says a lot of images among the institution. do we mind? let's have in mind that um, in the, the, in the part of it, that was a strong resolution, a meeting that we do the same thing as

a french problem. it has done in 2014, which is a full credit recognition of this time. pop is still not amongst the 446, no other united states. so they want to pay nicely. that is stuff the same. i think that's what i want to do. yeah. a mentor and thank you very much for it for those points. so a mentor has made the point, james, the arms embargo from europe is either not going to happen or not going to have a very big impact or unlikely to have very big impact. in a recent article that you wrote, you detailed the 4 types of leverage that europe could bring to bear arms embargo was one of them. another was trade. and this, this seems to me an area where europe has actually quite a bit of leverage because it is the biggest uh, goods trading partner for israel making up about 30 percent of the, of the trade in goods the israel has with, with outside countries. so this is something that if europe wanted to

have leverage, this is one area where it could have influenced isn't it? yes it is. it's funny. just see what happened last week of the european council where the subject did come up. it was not included in the community care, but it was mentioned by the president of the council, the outgoing president, shelby shows at the end of it as saying that there was discussion boots on by mold on a couple of member states. while i'm reviewing the israel, your association agreement number, which trade is carried out, and that has been something on the agenda, rising up the agenda in recent months. it's getting uh the amount of attention at the moment. i'm not sure we're at the point where that review will actually take place that the southern, the moving is aside of this general. we're going to public opinion, others being recognized by the leaders. and that could be quite costly for is

really particular given that a trace with europe on preferential terms of the related aspect that you're getting is not terribly important. economically makes premium bolt is symbolically which is trade with the cellphones. now there are restrictions on the settlement, right, but they all worked around in many cases by different mental states. i'm not very one impulse. a complete bond on trade with the goods or services on the settlement is something which is also talked about. again, last week i'm obviously it would make a greater difference. they really get some off to this is really administration, especially with those 2 ministers then develop a small french you all of this stuff. a lot community. it is some if that is talked about. so there is somebody bridge possible that it's this movement and opinion continues over the next couple of months. but the manual man, a number of very good points. the dimensionals are the divisions, are going to be your institutions, which is true. and that means to be tied up if that of these things are going to

get underway together with grades. remember, states for lex, we have about under 2 minutes left now on the program, a recognition of palestinian statehood. that is something that is recommended by the dutch advisory body. about half of your currently has recognized palestinian statehood. the other house 15 countries a bit more than half have not. uh huh. what should they do in your view? the recognition of the senior state of georgia is a very important political as symbolical expression of support to palestine in the palace thing and people uh so. busy oh, i do expect that gradually more or more. uh, european uh, uh, states will, will follow the pos, installed shirts have already gotten that way. and again, the dish uh, induced domain and also blinking it to the, to the previous comments. uh uh, the is not just you changing move in europe. uh that is pushing change. it is

a getting to the very strong rolling soft, the international court of justice. and also the pressure brought about by the international criminal court. the debt is essentially telling states, you know, you have to take pro, a proactive action to bring a legal situation to an actual stop the crime still to stop israel from continuing this general side and, and how the atrocities as well as b s bar called dive estimate that essentially has to be onto knobs and bottle was bought in last year and a dirty. busy until until recently, the international court of justice has essentially indicated that that h watch, that is a roof that european countries another uh the un member state trooper. so in bringing

about a change in is israel's policies and practices on the grounding, told him to come to the office for start dash, really a significant change and significant pressure coming from all possible and goals on the r p. and politicians want us to get it to be on the right side of history. and i believe that pressure will only increase as to what continuous, uh, and as uh, as the time process. alexis, thank you very much. we have to run this all the time. we have to for today, but thank you very much to all our guest, james moran and menu, as your pre and looks pack in bergen. thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website dash 0 dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash 8 inside story. you can also join the conversation on x or handle there at asia inside store for me. so then you and the whole team here in don't like the

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by funding projects in an array of sectors ranging from infrastructure to health and education. these initiatives ultimately helped eradicate poverty and promote sustainable development the the of them are kyle, this is the news our life from the coming up in the next 60 minutes. do you and human rights chief says the darkest movement of israel's will is happening now in northern dawson. southern gaza is also on the attack. at least 38 palestinians are killed in strikes on con eunice. the verses government says it's willing to hand over gauls and.