a service collateral, the average has collateral damage. that's the reality is leading to what we're seeing that will allow me to push back for a moment. corporate is real effective. it's a little bit branding from the us elections to the escalating conflict in the middle east. upfront returns for a new season. setting the stage for serious debates upfront with mont, for the mont hill. on alex's era, is a piece dealing, does that possible also the getting the highest in want lead is gathering though helpful. yet another round of tools and hopes of running high, he's wise says, how much this estimate to be that was an ops to punch a piece. so after so many things at times, kind of the 2 sides, weights and agreements. now he's gone. this is inside story, the

hello welcome to the program. i am hush him a bottle stalled for a month to explore the piece, dean and guzzle, have resumed here in doha was solved on say, i chief have met with the guitar, the prime minister hoping to move negotiations fluid. but kidding, go how monthly the highest and why should according to his why i'm the us pay the way for a peace agreement ending of the war on garza and allowing the release of the remaining captive. this round of tools comes on the hills of a series of target to the size of nations by as well, of lead us both and gaza and lebanon. but good that really to break through. what will go to all guess in a moment. but 1st, this report by alex bet. israel is relentless bombardment of guns, the approaches it's 13th month round after round of ceased by tools have failed to bring an end to the cottage. tens of thousands of palestinians have now in kills.

and those who survive spaced of ation and repeated displacement, israel killed. how must lead a yeah. yes. and why the early of this month? prime minister benjamin netanyahu claims that's by killing him. israel had removed an obstacle to pace to so low to the question. i would like to say again, in the clearest way i'm a mass will no longer root cause i'm not sure this is the beginning of the day after have mass. and this is an opportunity to use the residence of god to finally break free from these parents. but the destruction and gaza has continued on the basis. the heads of the c i n d is right. the intelligence agency massage has made the company prime minister and go ha, by the 1st ceased by talk since the days of sinned, wat but doubts persist about as well as commitment to ending the war and bringing home the captives still held in gaza. let me, i will not go to those who are crying for these rarely captives to them. we say those captives cannot return to you until and unless the war on the cause that

comes to a halt and our palestinian detainees release the most recent attempt of the seas. 5 was in september when israel rejected us another proposal. the us, the european union and 9 other countries, had tried to convince both sides to agree to a 21 day plan. but the last time there was a pause in the fighting was almost a year ago now when a week long true. so is there any captives being exchanged for palestinians health and is ready presence since been the humanitarian situation and gaza has severely deteriorated, despite grubbing international pressure on israel to bring it in to the fighting. a tex have continued and northern gaza has been given the states. the question now can be slight, is towards finally lead to a cease fire, or will they just be another missed opportunity? alex bid l to 0 for inside story. the. let's bring in

a panel of experts to assess the negotiations. a lot done set amount of shape is a full not you unofficial has advise the u. n. space on voice to gaza. jerusalem, i'm 11 and into buying house. the hello is political consultants specializing in the middle east and north africa. a non resident fellow of the middle east institute. and 10 of these i don't think us is a form, is why they advise that department. assess him on thrash and brock. let's come to the program, settlement. the deal has been elusive for the and now it, do you think an agreement with us is by it is still possible now. it was good to be with you. well, possibly it will depend, i think, on the political calculations of benjamin netanyahu. but i must say to you how to and i really read sitting in the seat right now, one year later after we've been discussing your monetary and truces. if you recall,

that was a v to us a security council resolution in october of last year. and then you in general, a suddenly a resolution which bosses about a $120.00 votes talking for humanitarian truths. it seems as if we're still there. and yet, we're not there because we've had more than $40000.00 plus problems sitting in skills. and those is rarely hostages. the ones that are still living are still being held in god's. so it's, it's a, the, the regrettable situation. and i, i hope that we can get some sorts of a choice, but it's because it's, it's so different and there's no guarantee it's all that this will translate into a longer ceasefire, which of course has the aim of the un resolution in march that the us did finally get behind the telling late they said it was non binding hops each time. the biggest challenge is was getting concessions from both. how nice and not 10. yeah.

how will it happen this time? do you think that both sides agree it could be the moment for an agreement? thank you. hi shim um, i think part of the question is, what are the parameters of a sci fi now as a way of looking the entire destruction of a heads up and what can any be described as completed 9 nation in north? cuz we're not really talking about a ceasefire in terms of normal conflicts, no rules of engagement. this is a war against civilians. there is absolutely no discussion on the as far as the side of military withdrawal impart because there is no discussion around the climate security arrangements for cuz the itself or even governance, so otherwise. so when we're talking about ceasefire, what do we really talking about? are we talking about is rout, stopping is bombing campaign? are we talking about? how about us making various concessions?

we know that before he died, his and why had to spend several weeks avoiding and really just in time to bring from egyptian. i'm studying negotiators and i'd really withdrawal and effectively from the, the, the sci fi told, at the same time as well. um, the united states had effectively called the cx 5 homestead. and that was at the time and we had escalation and 11 on starting. and of course be in rainy and tit for tat attacks that we seen as the region, the regional landscape changes. so when we, when we looking at these parameters now, and we're looking at these talks major flags already in the hobby evictions that and the ha, that has been from us, the negation in cairo on thursday, the manager, the engage with egyptian security delegation. we've had a shake of within the egyptian security, operates as the need to negotiate matrix inside is no longer the head of the general intelligence himself. so we're not really looking at anything sustainable or anything really material. in my personal opinion, this feels

a little bit like an about face and campaign for the will. the united states and his domestic connect to a landscape to be able to south, to the public and a very narrow election that it is working towards the spice. and these ratings maybe only need to give a, a note. the time these tools are reading, nothing is going to change. okay. and when these writers say that the death of the highest and why offers an opening for the revival of tools, is it because of an assumption among these riley? is that to yes and what was the read obstacle to an agreement or that his death is the end of an era in gaza? unfortunately, i assume it means neither of it's. it's just um, more or less empty rhetoric for mr. newton. now look, he does not have a post for guys a plan when the warranty get. he did not have a gun, a postwar garza plan 345 months later. i or he was reluctant, refused,

and then dismissed. president biden's plan for a phase a ceasefire and the a gradual israeli withdrawal. the entry of an intra arab a horse including the palestinian authority into guys. and so to expect from him right now to come up with a plan is it just doesn't make sense. what, what he was trying to say when he said that there's an opening is that there is an opening to continue the war because now, and we're just stays away from him saying that he really wanted to. i, i, he had the best of intentions. the thing is there's no one to talk to. there's no credible interlocutor, which is why with all due respect to the talk being held in your heart today. uh, with all due respect to um secretary yeah. anthony secretary state anthony blink is

11 visits in the region. if you look at the time table option, i just don't see this happening. certainly not in the uh, 9 days, right? days that remain before the us 11. but also in the almost 70 days between the election and the and all of your ration. so any way you look at this time, typically we're not looking, we're not, we should not be anticipating any kind of ceasefire slides. hostage deals slash political, a settlement anytime before late january, early february, 2025 e. if even that me. so i'm sorry to sound pessimistic. i agree with the things that were said before me, a 100 percent. i just, i see an opening i just, i just don't see mr. hudson. yeah. willing to take okay. segment it's even though there's an a, a proposal that has been presented to the old policies, which talks about a short term seized by a, a full weeks almost

a month. do you think this is going to be a major concession by how mass, which, which has been insisting in the past on the need for a permit, is seized by a, as a major prerequisite for any agreement with these well, of the no, i don't think so. i again, i agree with the what for the alone and i've said have said, how nice is a relatively headless body right now. it's probably fighting and is the localities . and to think that they themselves will be able to drive through some sort of a, a truce in this way, i think is, is difficult. what we need is a pedestal plan. what we need is the international community to sort of finally stepped forward and international lies the protection of civilians and gaza. and also to insist through that to get the hostages out failure to do that,

will mean that these tools, unfortunately, i agree. again, it's largely towards the american electoral cycle, often, frankly, in the middle east, it's been to do with the american political cycle. in this case, it is to see if we can get some sort of uh of, of a true switch enables that. but no, i think we need the recipients to step forward and i think the rest of the international community overwhelming members of the security council now need to press for much rates and measures in terms of what happens and in gaza. benjamin netanyahu and his cabinet are not going to do this. yeah. how does that happen? that's very, very difficult. but i think with the fading that we're going to see, i'm afraid, a forever war and being inflicted on gaza as no. well. so starting to say, 11 and, and the region and in that respect, i guess the i,

the variable that i see is rarely public themselves. they have to ask themselves. we say for today, then we were a year ago, all we, all we in a physician way by which we can totally annihilates those organizations like time us and, and his beloved. and of course the answer is no. and so that's, that's the variable. otherwise, yes, we're going to have to wait until february of when in a very dangerous vacuum to see what happens next half sight you spoke earlier about gibson road and the meeting between the how much dedication, whether you have some officials in cairo, the man who has been overseeing, most of the talking in the past was the intelligence full main tells you is chief our best comment, who was replaced raising many questions about who's going to take over and what, what is it going to mean for future tools? but these riley seem to be more willing then about to see the gyptian they have big

about in the future. and this could explain the reason why, how much delegation is that. do you see that way? and i don't actually, i think the reality is, is that we're looking at the same situation. i know trying to give policies, particularly these right is the benefit of the doubt. the reality is, is that the deterrence mechanism of occupation failed on october 7th. the whole plan and i agree with my final panel is there is no price full time. there was no political roadmap because the will find itself is annexation. in my opinion, i don't think, but also this year that can be any other conclusion. whether that is military occupation, until as many civilians as possible have been killed or removed from the area. i don't think there is any movement on a political will find a peaceful plan because there is no intention to implement one in terms of

palestinian leadership, full palestinian security. the same goes for the egyptians. the israelis have moved in. they have occupied the philadelphia card, or they have unilaterally amended effectively the company of a treaty. now egypt feeling very much. uh, i want to go as far as to say abandoned, but suddenly side lines by its strongest ally in the re, the in terms of the regional security architecture, which is the united states. certainly doesn't have any real leverage left to exercise haven't used. and when they did have it, and now really doesn't have any contribution to this conflicts beyond continuing to keep channels of communication open with both sides. at the end of the day, egypt for the security is it's paramount. security concern, it's national security priority. and there is, i mean, we don't know a lot about the new intelligence chief general major general fund ashad. what we do know is that is most previous or his most recent roll was that he had did the wrong

team and the wrong fall within g. i s the fact that he was replaced in preparation to prepare to meet with the reading and for administer. before i, tennessee, he travelled to brakes to meet with uranium. presidents does signal there is wind regional considerations in terms of egypt, regional and national security priorities. that aside at the same time when it comes to cause a, there is, i think, a recognition taken cold and that there was very little the caps done until it's rout. holz holz itself stops itself on egypt. so many parameters that it's really negotiating about is this question of palestinian civilians the buddha. and whether or not we will eventually see a mass displacement event into the sinus. okay. along until july and august the, the, the plan was basically there's the key, the da says the alternatives and age. if she's looking forward to see a full month on which both,

how much that is why it would agree which was based on the idea of us these by exchange of a couple saves you money to get a allowance, a complete withdrawal of these riley army from gaza and then that would be conducive to a bigger settlement and talks about the future that day. nomic, is it still down or for you as far as you're concerned? it's a tone chop to today we should be talking about something totally different as well . you know, if it's, if, if we're looking at the calculus or the decision making process, as mr. newton, you know, um, you know, the chapter is closed. he wants to believe this, the status quote with his bagman war of attrition status qual, uh, condition he's now he's now a 100 percent consumed by his uh, hobby in that easy. ron. so as far as he's concerned is really casualties. thomas, the new casualties are just sacrifices and

a much bigger theater. and that is these really you ronnie and relationship or equation in terms of the, of any kind of settlement. if you're looking at that angle, look the, there were 2 or 3 options here. um, at the outset, around november, december of 2023 and even going into perhaps january and february 24. there was still a chance for a all in exchange for all type of deal. but that would have required israel to withdraw or to, to agree to a cease fire. and then roger, you withdraw that i would not have provided notes on the uh, with a so called the quote unquote victory photo. so we maintain, the war said no, the, the americans dismissed you. ryan is explaining why not, which is his expertise, always explaining why something was not worth rather than coming up with something

that would work. um, but, but then it really, um, split into 2 options. if he wants to rewrite it, can come on us, which parent directly is impossible, but let's say that this was his thinking. then you need to re occupying gaza. you need to re occupying gaza and entirely for an undetermined duration of time. and you need to govern guys of course the, it's not something he wants to do or so that's something he pledged not to do in exchange at some point during the summer, as you alluded to july august. so that was a chance for a nother pc or not. and the ceasefire i saw, i'm sorry to use the word piece here. it looks like a, a, an expletive in this context. but there was a chance for another view which again he uh, renee got a client, but he buying large proposed to the present bind and when present in

vitamin, repackaged it and proposed it. and i see mr. an attorney now as far as ignoring and then run next on it saying um, it's no longer valid and he won't agree. he won't, he will not agree. he said he will not agree to his own time to, oh, you know, fast forwarding 34 months later here we aren't over at the hands of. busy culver, i just don't see a pie. now we can all go back to the very, very basics the by the plan which was in perfect but nonetheless contains all the parameters and principles that are required. a ceasefire, a hostage deal. and these really gradual withdrawal a realignment along different lines, along 2 or 3 phases. and the entry or the end transfer out there into guys of an international force based on an inter higher force that contains the policy in inventory. that's politically, he won't do it okay. because that that, that strengthens the palestinian authority making it we was the entire purpose of

him strengthening from us which brought us into the reality of october 7th and the 13 months that have a lot of sense. so again, i'm, i'm, i, i, you know, i, i hate to say this but the 2 other uh friends here on the panel see more optimistic than i am. okay. a settlement on the seas via tools. the postwar towards the future of gaza. that button on the when you're with us, you should be of a sense of those stokes is that it's not that it's not really playing any kind of role. is it because it's been sidelined or because they've just become totally relevant. you know, i work for sector general coffee and, and so obviously was play a role in such crises. unfortunately,

you and has been for that much the lives to the point that on road the main agency that looks off the policy in your refugees in the territories. and in the region. there is now a bill in the you and is ready for us. it to load us as well to wage extraordinary the european and other foreign secretary, they've just written warning against that. so yes, and i'm afraid to un, doesn't have a, at this point, a meaningful role to play other then it's agencies on the ground and even dice as is on to some of the problems. but i, i must say that i agree with has an i my colleague alone, that the fates is one where you are probably looking at more or more is really actions on the ground, ethnic cleansing, annexation of, of gaza. o, pulse of, of gaza. even though he's ready supplement box, we must be careful not to talk of selves into

a situation. and here i speak perhaps as a, as somebody who is diplomat in a situation where we think everything is helpless. i was in new york, my own organization, bringing together the error of the end of the european and the us for the discussions around the next phase in gaza. and crucially how you link that to a political solution. you had the, the launch of a saw the european initiative regarding coalition for, for 2 states. there are things that we must be trying to do, that includes the protection of the events that includes as alone said, an hour of and european and international effort to contribute troops to a new un or other protection for set includes see monetary and what, which leads to right now, of the winds arise ation. that needs to happen in order to protect those guys and civilians from dying of coal,

if not from the bones. and to find ways in which to bring in the policy and governance both on the ground as well as with the palestinian authority. so we mustn't accept that there is inevitable fates it's incumbent upon us. in fact, it's a moral and professional duty to an of our lead is most closely and in the end, the region as well as europe in united states and the rest of the wealth. to find ways to fill this vacuum, which is only then open from ok lane, and to insist that there are plans that can and must be implement. have some tools when a ceasefire agreement will lead you to the bigger question. what happens next in casa? and the key regional tie as all really see i to i, when it comes, who should take over, who should have a bigger se. and which country should have regional influence?

is this one of the reasons why people are really skeptical or at least unconscious moving forward when it comes to the future of the tools? and i think that's part of it. and i don't disagree with with sun mine and his comments on, on not presenting a helpless case. i think part of the challenge and part of the main challenge on the parts of all regional actors has been this related to this on willingness to look at the p a and look at how the legit to mice it has become in front of the palestinian people and have fundamental discussions about the question of legitimacy for the palestinians, legitimate representation for the palestinians. that is a longer process, that's a longer political process. we're still in this obsessive type circle of who should replace with i boss. and you know, when he finally is relieved to that position or lead stop position as head of the p

a, there is no real description on actually moving that forward. talking about a government structure that adequately represents the palestinians. at the same time, it's still within the parameters of the occupation. we talk about 2 states and here is where i do think that a degree of realism rather than pessimism is neat food. is that the, the 2 state solution is dead and it is rails, it says, well, made a tree goal such and the weather is the patient of janine whether it is the occupation of heads up. whether it is the, you know, they, the circling around and causing all within the westbank and others and administered stream is movement to ensure that on the ground it is simply impossible. okay, well that doc where that leads regional actors is a reg, is a realization that they're not willing to, to really engage upon in the magic tools to be completely fine. just as a final note, they're not really in great positions to exact leverage at the end of the day. this

isn't this really ministry campaign that is bought, endorsed by madison support united states. so we call we do mont, just within that permit to around that situation. unfortunately, we're really running off of time. i wish we had more time to talk about this segment safe saw how that. well, i don't think us, i really appreciate you insight looking forward to having this conversation with you in the upcoming days and weeks because it's definitely going to be one of the top stories for many weeks. they'll come and thank you to for what so you can see the program again, any time by visiting our website. i just need all those. com for further discussion . go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j insights or you can also join the conversation with x. i'll hand it is at a j inside started for me, how she went about on the entire team here in doha bye for now the,

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