you will come back, are you? no, i'm not fussed, but not in the eyes of his government to my wife has to be the cause. can you just need, like i just said these are, these are those in the 2nd part of the series. we follow a british age work or as he prepares to cut a test, his citizenship revocation. mesh analysis determines ok. so you're only as good as possible state list in syria. now to 0. the last week of the last presidential election, campaign affinity, impose suggests it's neck and neck. so what's the focus for coming to house? and donald trump in these final days and how you could say, could you have support for this allows for on, does a problem. the results. this is insights. sorry, the

hello welcome to the program. i'm how should i? how about law is the final few days of the last presidential election campaign, one in which the stock divisions have been a full glad a remarkable campaign by understand the president joe biden dropping all late in the day. the 1st incumbent not to seek re election since 1968. his opponent, former president donald trump shot during the campaign before by the end was replaced by vice president, come at a higher risk. why the main issues for voters include the economy and immigration, the wise backing for was and ukraine on his way of genocide and gaza have also featured in the campaign in life as race. those of minority groups could match them both unusual. so how many undecided votes we made to the one? what we have is on the trunk focus on the last few days. and what road with us support for as well as was own garza and 11 in play in this tight election. we've

got to august shortly about 1st this report from i'm a consumer studies and the fun days of campaigning in a closely fault and increasingly tied to election. republican donors from pillar riley, new york city, les stress, the major chains of his campaign. after years of building up foreign nations defending foreign borders and protecting foreign lands, we are finally going to build up our country, defend our borders, and protect our citizens. it's called america 1st. that is going to have for that level. never see democrats coming to have this mean one was on the road in philadelphia, one of the swing states which could play a critical role in who makes it to the white house. she reached out to black and latino, 9 days left in one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime. and we

know this is going to be a tight race until the very end. so we have a lot of work ahead of us. but we like hard work in election so time winning or losing the support of certain groups could prove critical on this. here at the valley, in michigan, how does this speech was interrupted with closed end is runs on casa on the topic of god. so we must in that war and we must end the war and bring the hostages home . paris and formal preston done. and from on net connected to states with an out of the american population. nearly 300000. the community has lead democratic for decades. this year, this angle against the board and administration support is around support on the costs of the us has been the biggest provider of weapons on financial aid as well. what's being called a genocide. that's so for kids more than 43 comes and palestinians from was long

voted as rel has been trying to move adverbs unless the voters. com leisure also in total freefall with the arab and muslim population in michigan. she's in a free full. she said they had jobs overseas, broad crime to their cities. and tonight in the middle east. it's like a tinderbox. it's ready to explode. people are being killed at levels that we've never seen before. the economy and immigration among the top issues for voters, but others like a bushing drive. so also one shop focus from seeking support from christian and eventually groups are against it. how does his thickness strong opposing stones advocating for women's right to choose on reproductive front positions for habits? a late tension to the race of to preston. joe biden dropped out and not the

challenge has been on checking himself politically, from demand. she replace the to whom she still serves as bai's pressed. and about the only thing certain in this extra ordinary campaign is that it will end on tuesday, november 5th. when americans go to the polls. i'm a cos, i'm sure the, i'll just see the inside story. the a lesson bring in august in wide war to virginia, steve herman, chief national correspondent, advice of america and all settled behind the white house cutting in doha, declined wilcox professor of government, george w, investing cuts on political the rights of public opinion and voting. among other aspects of us politics and a london thomas gift directly to him with a son to on us politics at the university college london. welcome to the program. steve. when trump was of a son to the criminal cases,

many thought there was absolutely no way the man could ever be able to stage a political come back. now, there is a consensus that from could win this election. how did him manage to get to this point? well, if you may remember, we had a previous republican president who was called the tap on president that nothing bad seemed to stick to him. and that's been the case since 2016 with donald trump as well. no matter how much bad publicity he gets, no matter if he's in peach twice or becomes a convicted felon, it does not seem to hurt his popularity applied well, the dynamics that change the election campaigns so that we've got to this particular point where this is going to been extremely a tight race as well. most of our recent elections have been very tight. just particularly in a few key states to think back to the 2000 election, the florida the outcome was decided by just over 500 bucks. and that was one

elected george bush. so what happened in this particular race was that bible was far behind. he looked like he was unable to function well on the debate. when he dropped out, harris jumped up and especially right after the debate, which he won very easily. but now the races tightened, as republicans come home to the republican party. democrats come onto the democratic party. thomas, what do you think would decide the vote in the upcoming days? well, the 1st thing i would say is i think that there is a small and vanishing number of swing voters. so in large part i think both cala harris and donald trump are trying to ensure that their bases turn out. of course that needs to be true. the most in these critical swing states including pennsylvania, including michigan, including wisconsin, arizona, georgia,

and the list goes on. i'm really looking at pennsylvania some recent forecasting show that of donald trump to win pennsylvania is odds of winning the white house go up to 96 percent. complet harris wins pennsylvania. her odds of winning the white house go to 91 percent. so that's just all night the edge of election, this is we will definitely unpack the a 7 swing states and see how this is gonna move forward. in the meantime, steve, so that was the madison square garden event where he come delivered his closing argument against canada. how was that the rhetoric was really doc would come as a surprise to his own supporters? would it make any difference to his own supporters? i doubt it will make any difference to his own supporters where i think that could turn out to be critical as professor gift just mentioned,

pennsylvania is absolutely essential. and what happened in those 4 hours before donald trump took the stage at madison square garden. you had a number of other speakers with very dark rhetoric, and some of it was interpreted as racist, including remarks about puerto ricans and puerto rico, uh, by a, a so called comedian one of his remarks. i cannot even repeat on a television. it was so vile. but suffice it to stay that in the hours after that very prominent, puerto rican celebrities, such as ricky martin and bad bunny. and i think even jennifer lopez reacted to it, bad. bonnie: coming out and basically endorsing harris, you most people may have never heard of him, but he is an extremely influential, puerto rican wrapper. and these 3 celebrities, i think have a combined total of $45000000.00 followers. on instagram,

i was in pennsylvania all last week. i was talking to puerto ricans in pennsylvania . there is a growing number of puerto ricans and other spanish speakers in that state. it is absolutely critical. and it is possible that if a few of puerto rican voters who were planning to vote for donald trump or so angry that they go out to vote for com a lot higher as a more planning to vote at all. but that could be the election. that's just how tight this is clyde in a normal place. and normal times normal political campaign, you would assume that a message of rage and hatred would to lead to other people say, wait a 2nd. we have to see what this man spends full. but when it comes to the us elections with trump and highways, what, what of a, his size? is it going to make an impact?

is it going to put some people to change that perception as paula strong piston sound? you know, i think trump supporters are really listening to him, but he's on the stomach when he does the speeches there and come here. i keys angry most of the time, but they've already made up their mind. but i do think that they're embraced 4 or 500 bucks my med are the darkness of his campaign. you know, americans tend to like an optimistic campaign, right. at reagan, the other, the president was very good at talking about the future. and donald trump is really dark now. okay, thomas, i'm in the supporters of come out of highways when they see the me said jenny, the grievance is the basis. we marks the statement. why had talks about the enemy from with the end. they would say this is a strong indication that trust when it's going to be the most existence of a flat to democracy in the united states of america. but then again,

it doesn't seem to be really, it wasn't a think among many people to the point where they could build momentum. that would tilt the ground to where to well, i think you're right. i don't think that it's a compelling argument that donald trump is a fasick chest, an anti democratic. but that's going to move many voters. i mean, that may be correct, but i think when you looked at the data, most americans are prioritizing other issues about 60 to 70 percent of americans think that democracy is somehow at risk. but if you look at what issue they place as their most important, what's actually gonna drive their vote, it's less than 3 percent that list democracy. and so that's why i think that come a harris. when she talks about the threat, the trunk to challenge it poses a democracy, she's largely kind of preaching to the choir. and that if she wants to get the swing boat, she's going to have to appeal based on the abortion issue on which democrats have a very considerable advantage on the economy. sort of pushing back at trump's

charges that this current administration is responsible for the cost of living prices on immigration to make sure that she can put forth the compelling case. for example, about how she's going to deal with the challenges of the border. steve, it's so tight is going to be decided by mazda and votes in 7th swing states. pennsylvania, whether grabs it along with the other states, will win the election wise pennsylvania crucial. and is it going to be mainly about the one who's going to expand his voice, but to kennedy in small cities and rural areas? yes, pennsylvania is really a bellwether state and it has been pointed out. it's very unlikely that the either candidate will uh, win and off electoral votes to become president without pennsylvania. what i saw on the ground last week in erie county, pennsylvania,

and in the pittsburgh area. the democrats have a fairly sophisticated ground game where they're keeping track of who has voted on knocking on doors. following up, the republicans are little bit less organized. but as you noted, if you go outside the big cities, that's where you find a very solid and enthusiastic base for donald trump. and every indication i got from talking to voters, there is they are going to vote for donald trump. they're not going to stay at home . if you go out and look at the yard signs outside the, the cities are, you will mostly see trump vance signs and very few harris walls signs. now that's not the best way to, to estimate the results of the election, but it does give you some indication of enthusiasm. so, as i said,

something is seemingly innocuous is uh, a comedian, insulting puerto ricans as a warm up act. if i couldn't trust be enough votes to, to, to swing things here, us. okay. floods. what's the problem with the, with the democrats when it comes to michigan venue from day one that it was going to be a huge problem here. the autumn muslim community is tied over the policies of the democrats. they've been the democrats for presiding over the war in gaza. and they say they're not going to vote for kamala harris yet. you don't really get us. does that come out of how has invested enough to change but such as the well, they protest against the by the there's administrative is very understandable. i think i'm a little bit narrow boaters, but republicans are pouring money into this boat for joe stein campaign. but i

think the 2000 election is an interesting way to look at the product. yes, because at the time ralph nader was learning is a green party candidate. protesting that al gore was not being green and that's in the campaign. and so later ended up with 97000 votes in florida. and bush, one by 540. and here's was most certainly not a green administration. right, so basically a vote for a stein is a boat, essentially for trump, that y'all, who prefers a truck from will cabs the error band, the muslim band, again, just talked about the porting of pro palestinian protesters. so i do understand that the anger for late, but i think of protest from here probably is a back for the okay, tell us when you look at to states like a rezoning,

trump has a slight lead. when you look at the georgia, it says that he seems to be more appealing to block votes. as a nevada, he seems to be slightly leading and he's banking, move those from the latino community. how to him on his to get to this point, why suddenly he's becoming very, very aggressive in his approach towards the swing votes and the dynamics of the, of the, of the swing states. or think trump has really had significant appeal to black man in particular. that's where he's doing much more, much better than he did the last go around or recently or time. sienna paul found that 78 percent of black voters support areas that's down significantly from about 85 percent who voted by them in 2020. when you break the data down by gender, that divides here even more starts about 20 percent of black man, one trump elected compared to without 12 percent of black women. he's also, as you suggested, made inroads with latino voters as well. and i do think that this is puzzling for

a lot of experts, because trump has kind of traffic to in this dark language, racially charged language using dehumanizing language to describe some of these groups. you know, at the end of the day, i think they are not single issue voters. and so they are affected by the exact same issues that americans are generally there is correctly or incorrectly, a perception that the us economy is not doing as well as it could be. and so i think that there is some pessimism, there's particularly as it relates to the cost of living and the fact that groceries and food are about $25.00 percentage points to fire in terms of the costs relative to pretend demik levels. steve, there's the drama, that's the trick. the choreography that comes along with the election campaign and to submit celebrate democracy in the us, use papers used to endorse candidates. some of those established newspapers decide that this time not to endorse any of the 2 candidates. why is it the realization

that we know who's going to win and therefore we don't wanna just a but outhouse of the most notable papers. yeah, sorry. the most notable newspapers that did not endorse of where the los angeles times and the washington post, they're both owned by billionaires and uh, whether uh there were actual issues involved of that or secret support for donald trump, or just that they're sort of hedging their bets trump has made it very clear that he regard some media that does not support him as enemies of the people. it's a very dark style and his dick phrase. and they may be afraid, especially jeff bezos, who is most notably known as, uh, the uh, the, the head of amazon. and has a space business as well. that he could possibly lose

a massive amount of government contracts. if trump gets back into office. so he may have been uh, looking at it from just a pragmatic, a business standpoint. but there does seem to be a bit of a chilling effect on the media. uh, a from uh donald trump saw a rhetoric of trump also threatening to go after the federal communications commission licenses of certain networks. although technically, networks themselves are not licensed, but if they own individual stations, their license. so we can certainly expect if donald trump gets back into office, there is going to be a much more adversarial relationship. uh um, from the white house, towards the main stream media in this country, clyde that fia oh, rich abuse. and if tom wins, could it be a key factor in deciding the, the final days of the vote and pushing some of the,

the, the undecided voters to decide which way to go as well. i don't think individual voters are worried about being held responsible for a balance or secret care still, but, but i think the long list of people that truck is threatening to imprison these, threatened dev army tribunal is for brock obama. i mean, he says is increasingly the less gets longer, the recent supreme court decision would seem to give him a lot of authority to politicize the justice department. so i don't think individual voters are worried to trump. well, you know, retaliated against them. although, if i were in a demonstration, he's been threatening about sending the army to invade the demonstrations. and so i would be a little nervous. just tell us where things are coming and how is a day, you know, one of these days you with she might regret the fact that she didn't really manage

to change the perception among american voters, that she's much better than trump when it comes to the economy. because when you look at the fig as many still believe that trump is a one, was all it takes to fix the economy. well, i think the economy is the number one issue for most voters and harris has had difficulty making the case that she represents a better choice than donald trump. the large part that is because of the increase in the cost of living during the, by the administration, you can make an argument that some of that was exacerbated by number big spending bills whenever binding came into office. but if you look at countries outside of the united states, they have been suffering from inflation as well as a result of supply chains, painter demand after the pandemic. but she's got to make the case that she is capable on the economy and trump. ready hassar on this, i think it's kind of the big issue along side of immigration that he is going to

question the last few days of the selection statement in europe. a of immigration has been a key issue. and to the point where we're seeing a search or the fall line, because immigration has been the top issue that these things up top is using the issue of immigration for a particular reason. because buffet is all populism along with the fia of the economy, is a photon of ground for people to say immigrants of the problem that america places in the future. donald trump's rhetoric certainly appeals to his base on the issue of immigration and the election at this point is all about turn out. it's not about converting people, as we've discussed. it is getting your supporters to actually cast a ballot, whether it's an early vote going to the polls early, which is the option on a lot of places mailing in your ballot, which the republicans and trump have had mixed views on that approach. or turning

out on election day. so i would expect actually in the last few days, the had to trump is not going to moderate his rhetoric whatsoever. he's likely to do whatever he thinks it's going to take as he has a portrait. um, a quite a starkly uh for uh a why was uh, or a households that are supporting trump for the wives to get their husbands, but off the couch and to the up the upholding place. so he said that several times more graphic language. and then so he's going to do whatever it takes to rally of the remaining voters from his base in this last week of the election client at the voter turnout is his product of speaking about a new vibe of sense among people that the vote is going to bring about a better life, a better change,

but augusta backed up with his defiance of political landscape. do you think that the turnouts could be higher than before? i think the internet could be higher than before, but i think what are the things that your introduction said is clearly not going to be true and that is that we will have the winter on the right of the election. i think there's going to be so less contestation, of voting, of, uh, validating of counting discount lawsuits are really in process. i think what we saw last time was a dry run for a really strong challenge to re election if from the loses. and it will take place over the course of a month or 2. probably me, thomas, if one of the candidates wins by a very small margin is going to be a huge problem for democracy in the us. but i still think that democracy is resilient in the united states. if you look at what happened in 20202021,

we have january 6 of course, one of the darkest days in american history. but at the same time that was dealt with through the courts, trump's challenges to the boat winded their way through the justice system where most were summarily incorrectly dismissed. many of the january 6th writers are now in prison. we have had, in the interim, the passage of the bi partisan electro reform act, which kind of limits the number of justifications that congress members can put up as a, as a reason for kind of contesting the, the elections. certainly there's a need for vigilance, you know, for, for especially violence. but, you know, i think we're going to see kaos. we're going to see which house we're going to see litigation, but i still think at the end of american democracy, we have less than a minute. tend to have to just show your projections with me if you don't mind at this stage of steve, how do you think is going to win this election?

i think it's impossible to predict it is. it is possible that one candidate or the other could sweep all the swing states. it's also possible that it comes down to one electoral boat. okay, well i can probably prognosticate. it's gonna be very, very close flight. i think chairs when the popular vote and if i had to flip a coin, it would land on its edge, but i would knock it over and say it was wednesday electoral college. thomas? yeah, i'm very hesitant to make a prediction here, but i do think harris will win the popular vote problem that she needs about 3 to 4 percent point margin to win. and it's just too close to call at this point. we switch stats totally understand the really appreciate your insight, steve herman lives where it goes to thomas gift. thank you very much indeed. i thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'm just going for further discussion, go to all the facebook page,

that's facebook dot com forward slash a j inside slide. you can also joining the conversational ex. alejandro is at a j inside folder for me. i should walk by and the entire team here in the house, by the risk of diseases passing from animals to humans is greater than ever before. we do not know all the different parasites and viruses and bacteria that the neighbors may have in its final episode, algebra visits, the disease hotspot, metal gasket, the all 3 of these are not equipped enough to respond to a pre less than the cost on tuesday or the latest news, so you to wants to ration all taking place in the boston in northern go for as the

is why the on the strength and, and the resistance. you better from the account. we detailed coverage with both of these real and how may i ask, continuing to talk to us the prospect of a low and fighting seems unlikely anytime soon from the house or the story here says, these ambulances have had any maintenance. israel's totaled will case of the strip means no spare parts have come more than a year. how does your team in to be say say that your government has repressive policies? it's best to of human rights. this most important task. my government facing realities. what you're saying is that you are restricted by the is released in terms of your movements of the time. that's right. to tell you restricted thought, providing on sense how much mist trip do you think impulse is right now to ask? it seems to be spreading more easily via the story on talk to how does era the challenges

the the i'm sort of any good to have you with us. this is the news, our life from the coming up in the program today. the pain in english in gaza. israel continues it's on sort, hitting central gaza just hours ago. while in the north, more than a 1000 palestinians have been killed in a 24 days. is really lawmakers are considering bills the.