she's a raised with a one sided view of israel. this is our land. that's what was conveyed to us found in the depths of my family's house. but the tide is shifting as younger, jewish americans. and then the reality about these rails treatments of the palestinians. i was never in the palestinian house to live barge into one in the middle of the night. it's a military occupation. is right, is an episode one on out is era. the last week of the last presidential election, campaign affinity impose suggests it's neck and neck. so what's the focus for coming to house and donald trump in these final days, and how you could say, could us support for, as well as for all gaza problems the results? this is insights. sorry, the

to hello, welcome to the program. i'm how should i, how about law is the final few days of the last presidential election campaign, one in which the stock divisions have been a full glass. a remarkable campaign by understand the president joe biden dropping all late in the day. the 1st incumbent not to seek re election since 1968. his opponent, former president donald trump shot during the campaign before by then was replaced by vice president. come at a higher risk. why the main issues for voters include the economy and immigration, the whys backing for wars and ukraine on his way of genocide and gaza have also featured in the campaign in life as race. the votes of minority groups could match them both unusual. so how many on decided votes we made to the one? once we have is on trunk focus on the last few days and what road with us support for as well as was on gauze and 11 in play in this tight election. we've got to

august shortly about 1st this report from i'm a consumer studies that is the final days of campaigning in a closely fault and increasingly tied to election. republican donors from pillar valley, new york city, les stress, the major chains of his campaign. after years of building up foreign nations defending foreign borders and protecting foreign lands, we are finally going to build up our country, defend our borders, and protect our citizens. it's called america 1st. that is going to have for that level never see democrat coming to have us mean one was on the road in philadelphia, one of the swing states which could play a critical role in who makes it to the white house. she reached out to black and latino, 9 days left in one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime. and we

know this is going to be a tight race until the very end. so we have a lot of work ahead of us. but we like hard work in elections, so time reading, losing the support of certain groups could prove critical on the theory. i just really michigan, how does this speech was interrupted with closed end is runs on casa on the topic of god. so we must and that war and we must end the war and bring the hostages home habits and formal preston done the from on net connecting the states with an out of the american population from nearly 300000. the community has lead democratic for decades. this year, this angle against the board and administration support is around support on casa, the us has been the biggest provider of weapons on financial aid as well. what's being called a genocide, that's so for kids within 43 comes in,

palestinians from was long quoted as rel has been trying to move adverbs unless than voltage. com lies are also in total freefall with the arab and muslim population. in michigan, she's in a free full, she said their jobs overseas, broad crime to their cities. and tonight in the middle east. it's like a tinderbox, ready to explode. people are being killed at levels that we've never seen before. the economy, an immigration among the top issues for voters, but others like a bush and drive. so also one shop focused from seeking support from christian and eventually a groups are against it. how does his thickness strong opposing stones advocating for women's right to choose on reproductive front tissues for habits? a late tension to the race of to preston. joe biden dropped out and not the

challenge has been on checking himself politically from the man she replace the to whom she still serves as bai's pressed. and about the only thing certain in this extra ordinary campaign is that it will end on tuesday, november 5th. when americans go to the polls. i'm a cos, i'm sure these. i'll just see the inside story. the a lesson bring in august and wide war to virginia, steve hum and chief national correspondent, advice of americans or federal behind the white house goods and in doha inclined wilcox professor of government, jewish, w, investing, cuts on political the rights of public opinion and voting among other aspects of us politics and a london thomas gift direct chat with his son to on us politics at the university college london. welcome to the program. steve. when trump was of a sent to the criminal case,

as many as thought there was absolutely no way the man could ever be able to state a political come back. now, there is a consensus that from could win this election. how did him manage to get to this point? well, if you may remember, we had a previous republican president who was called the tap on president and nothing bad seemed to stick to him. and that's been the case since 2016 with donald trump as well. no matter how much bad publicity he gets, no matter if he's in peach twice or becomes a convicted felon, it does not seem to hurt his popularity applied well, the dynamics that change the election campaigns so that we've got to this particular point where this is going to been extremely a tight race well, most of our recent elections have been very tight, just particularly in a few key states. to think back to the 2000 election, the florida outcome was decided by just over 500 bucks. and that was one

elected george bush. so what happened in this particular race was that binding was far behind. he looked like he was unable to function well in the debate. when he dropped out, harris jumped up and especially right after the debate, which he won very easily. but now the races tightened, as republicans come home to the republican party. democrats come onto the democratic party. thomas, what do you think would decide the vote in the upcoming days? well, the 1st thing that i would say is i think that there is a small and vanishing number of swing voters. so in large part i think both cala harris and donald trump are trying to ensure that their bases turn out. and of course that needs to be true. the most in these critical swing states including pennsylvania, including michigan, including wisconsin, arizona, georgia,

or the list goes on. i'm really looking at pennsylvania some recent forecasting show that of donald trump to win pennsylvania is odds of winning the white house go up to 96 percent. complet harris winds, pennsylvania. her odds of winning the white house go to 91 percent. so that's just tell me night the edge of election. this is we will definitely unpack the a 7 swing a stays and see how this is going to move forward. in the meantime, steve, so there was the madison square garden event. why? hey, tom delivered his closing argument against canada. how was that the rhetoric was really doc? would it come as a surprise to his own supporters? would it make any difference to his own supporters? and i doubt it will make any difference to his own supporters, where i think that could turn out to be critical as professor gift just mentioned,

pennsylvania is absolutely essential. and what happened in those 4 hours before donald trump took the stage at madison square garden. you had a number of other speakers with very dark rhetoric, and some of it was interpreted as racist, including remarks about puerto ricans and puerto rico uh, by a, a so called, uh, comedian or one of his remarks. i cannot even repeat on a television. it was so vile, but suffice it to stay that in the hours after that very prominent puerto rican celebrities, such as ricky martin and bad bonnie. and i think even jennifer lopez reacted to it, bad bonnie coming out and basically endorsing harris. you, most people may have never heard of him, but he is an extremely influential, puerto rican wrapper. and these 3 celebrities, i think, have a combined total of $45000000.00 followers. on instagram,

i was in pennsylvania all last week. i was talking to puerto ricans in pennsylvania . there is a growing number of puerto ricans and other spanish speakers in that state. it is absolutely critical, and it is possible that it for a few of puerto rican voters who were planning to vote for donald trump or so angry that they go out to vote for com a lot higher as a more planning to vote at all. but that could be the election. that's just how tight this is clyde in a normal place. and normal times normal political campaign, you would assume that a message of rage and hatred would to lead to other people say, wait a 2nd. we have to see what this man spends full, but when it comes to the us elections with trump and highways, what, whatever his size is it going to make an impact?

is it going to put some people to change that perception as follows? trump has been sent you know, i think trump supporters aren't really listening to him, but he's on the stump. when he does, the speech is there and come here. i keys angry most of the time, but they have already made up their mind. um, but i do think that they're in raise for 500 bucks my mentor. the darkness of his campaign, you know, americans tend to like an optimistic campaign. right. and reagan, the other stuff on the president was very good at talking about the future. and donald trump is really dark now. okay, thomas, i'm in the supporters of come out of highways when they see them. he said, jenny, the grievance is the basis remarks. the statement of what had talks about the enemy from with the end. they would say this is a strong indication that trump's, when it's going to be the most existence of a fled to democracy in the united states of america. but then again,

it doesn't seem to be really, it wasn't a think among many people to the point where the could build momentum that would tilt the ground to where to well, i think you're right. i don't think that it's a compelling argument. the donald trump is a fast, it's just an anti democratic that that's going to move many voters. i mean, that may be correct, but i think when you looked at the data, most americans are prioritizing other issues about 60 to 70 percent of americans think that democracy is somehow at risk. but if you look at what issue they places their most important, what's actually gonna drive their vote. it's less than 3 percent that list democracy. and so that's why i think that come a harris. when she talks about the threat, the trunk to challenge it poses a democracy, she's largely kind of preaching to the choir. and that if she wants to get the swing boat, she's going to have to appeal based on the abortion issue on which democrats have a very considerable advantage on the economy. sort of pushing back that trunk. the

charges that this current administration is responsible for the cost of living prices on immigration to make sure that she can put forth the compelling case. for example, about how she's going to deal with the challenges of the border. steve, it's so tight is going to be decided by mazda and votes in 7th swing states. pennsylvania, whether grabs it along with the other states, will win the election. why is pennsylvania crucial? and is it going to be mainly about the one who's going to expand his voice, particularly in smart cities and rural areas? yes, pennsylvania is really a bellwether state and it has been pointed out. it's very unlikely that the either candidate will uh when an off electoral votes to become president without a pennsylvania. what i saw on the ground last week in erie county, pennsylvania,

and in the pittsburgh area. the democrats have a fairly sophisticated ground game where they're keeping track of who has voted on knocking on doors. following up, the republicans are little bit less organized. but as you know, that if you go outside the big cities, that's where you find a very solid and enthusiastic base for donald trump. and every indication i got from talking to voters, there is they are going to vote for donald trump. they're not going to stay at home . if you go out and look at the yard signs outside the, the cities are, you will mostly see trump vance signs and very few harris walls signs. now that's not the best way to, to estimate the results of the election, but it does give you some indication of enthusiasm. so, as i said,

something is seemingly innocuous is uh, a comedian, insulting puerto ricans as a warm up act. if i couldn't just be enough votes to to, to swing things here, us. okay. floods. what's the problem with the, with the democrats when it comes to michigan venue from day one that it was going to be a huge problem here. the autumn muslim community is tied over the policies of the democrats. they blamed the democrats for presiding over the war in gaza. and they say they're not going to vote for kamala harris yet. you don't really get us. does that come out of how has invested enough to change the substances that well, they protest against the by the there's administrative is very understandable. i think i'm a little bit narrow voters, but republicans are pouring money into this boat for jo stein campaign. but i think

the 2000 election is an interesting way to look at the product. yes, because at the time ralph nader was learning is a green party candidate. protesting that al gore was not being green and that's in the campaign. and so later ended up with 97000 votes in florida. and bush, one by 540. and here's was most certainly not a green administration. right, so basically a vote for a stein is a boat, essentially for trump, that y'all, who prefers a truck from well kept the error band. the muslim band, again, just talked about the porting of pro palestinian protesters. so i do understand that the anger truly, but i think i've protest over here probably is about fine, but okay, tell us when you look at to states like a rezoning,

trump has a slight lead. when you look at the georgia, it says that he seems to be more appealing to block votes. as a nevada, he seems to be slightly leading and he's banking, move those from the latino community. how did him manage to get to this point, why suddenly he's becoming very, very aggressive in his approach towards the swing votes and the dynamics of the, of the, of the swing states. or think trump has really had significant appeal to black men in particular. that's where he's doing much more, much better than he did the last go around recently or time. so, you know, pull down that 78 percent of black voters support areas that's down significantly from about 85 percent who voted by them in 2020. when you break the data down by gender, that divides here even more starts about 20 percent of black man, one trump dielectric compared to without 12 percent of black women. he's also, as you suggested, made and runs with latino voters as well. and i do think that this is puzzling for

a lot of experts, because trump has kind of traffic them to start language, racially charged language using dehumanizing language to describe some of these groups. you know, at the end of the day, i think they are not single issue voters. and so they are affected by the exact same issues that americans are generally there is correctly or incorrectly, a perception that the us economy is not doing as well as it could be. and so i think that there is some pessimism, there's particularly as it relates to the cost of living and the fact that groceries and food are about $25.00 percentage points to fire in terms of the costs relative to pretend demik levels. steve, there's the drama, that's the trick. the choreography that comes along with the election campaign and just to let celebrate democracy in the us use papers used to endorse candidates. some of those established newspapers decided at this time not to endorse any of the

2 candidates. why is it the realization that we know who's going to win and therefore we don't want to just but i'll call some of the most notable papers. yeah, sorry. the most notable newspapers that did not endorse of where the los angeles times and the washington post. they're both owned by billionaires and uh, whether uh there were actual issues involved of that or secret support for donald trump, or just that they're sort of hedging their bets. trump has made it very clear that he regard some media that does not support him as enemies of the people. it's a very dark style and his stick phrase. and they may be afraid, especially jeff bezos, who is most notably known as, uh, the uh, the, the head of amazon. and has a space business as well. that he could possibly lose

a massive amount of government contracts. if trump gets back into office. so he may have been uh, looking at it from just a pragmatic, a business standpoint. but there does seem to be a bit of a chilling effect on the media. uh, a from uh donald trump saw a rhetoric of trump also threatening to go after the federal communications commission licenses of certain networks. although technically, networks themselves are not licensed, but if they own individual stations, their license. so we can certainly expect if donald trump gets back into office, there's going to be a much more adversarial relationship uh, from the white house, towards the main stream media in this country, clyde, that fear of retribution if tom wins could it's v i t factor in deciding the, the final days of the vote and pushing some of the, the,

the undecided voters to decide which way to go. well, i don't think individuals orders are worried about being held responsible on a balance or secret care still. but, but i think the long list of people that the truck is threatening to and present these, threatened dev army tribunal is for brock obama. i mean, he said this is increasingly the less gets longer. but a recent supreme court decision would seem to give him a lot of authority to politicize the justice department. so i don't think individual voters are worried to trump. well, you know, retaliated against them. although, if i were in a demonstration, he's been threatening about sending the army to invade the demonstrations. and so i would be a little nervous. just tell us where things are coming to, how is a day, you know, one of these days where she might regret the fact that she didn't really manage to

change the perception among american voters, that she's much better than trump when it comes to the economy. because when you look at the fig, as many still believe that trump is the one, was all it takes to fix the economy. i think the economy is the number one issue for most voters and harris has had difficulty making the case that she represents a better choice than donald trump. the large part that is because of the increases and the cost of living during the by me administration. you can make an argument that some of that was exacerbated by number of big spending bills whenever button came into office. but if you look at countries outside of the united states, they have been suffering from inflation as well as a result of supply chains, painter demand after the pandemic. but she's got to make the case that she is capable on the economy. and just trump really hassar on this. i think it's kind of the big issue alongside immigration that he is going to push in the last few days

of the selection. steve, in europe a, the immigration has been a key issue. and to the point where we've seen a says or the far and wide because immigration has been the top issue that do think that the top is using the issue of immigration for a particular reason. because buffet is all populism along with the fia of the economy. is a photon ground for people to say, immigration of the problem that i'm not a couple uses in the future. donald trump's rhetoric certainly appeals to his base on the issue of immigration. and the election at this point is all about turn out. it's not about converting people, as we've discussed, it is getting your supporters to actually cast a ballot. whether it's an early vote going to the polls early, which is the option on a lot of places mailing in your ballot, which the republicans and trump have had mixed views on that approach or turning

out on election day. so i would expect actually in the last few days the had to trump is not going to moderate his rhetoric whatsoever. he's likely to do whatever he thinks it's going to take as he has a portrait. um, a quite a starkly uh for uh a why was uh, who are a households that are supporting trump for the wives to get their husbands bots off the couch and to the up the upholding place. so he said that several times and more graphic language and then so he's going to do whatever it takes to rally of the remaining voters of from his base in this last week of the election client at the voter turnout is his product. and speaking about a new vibe of sense among people that the vote is going to bring about a better life, a better change. but augusta backed up with this defiance of political landscape.

do you think that the turnouts could be higher than before? i think the turner could be higher than before, but i think what are the things that your introduction said is clearly not going to be true and that is that we will have the winter on the right of the election. i think there's going to be so less contestation, of voting, of, uh, validating of counting described, lawsuits are really in process. i think what we saw last time was a dry run for a really strong challenge to the election if front loses. and it will take place over the course of a month or 2. probably me, thomas, if one of the candidates wins by a very small margin is going to be a huge problem for democracy in the us? well, i still think that democracy is resilient in the united states. if you looked at

what happened in 20202021, we had january 6 of course, one of the darkest areas in american history. but at the same time that was dealt with through the courts, trump's challenges to the boat winded their way through the justice system where most were summarily incorrectly dismissed. many of the january 6th writers are now in prison. we have had, in the interim the passage of the bi partisan electro reform act, which kind of limits the number of justification that congress members can put up as a, as a reason for kind of contesting the, the elections. certainly there's a need for vigilance, you know, for, for especially violence. but, you know, i think we're going to see kaos. we're going to see which house we're going to see litigation, but i still think at the end of american democracy, we have less than a minute. tend to have to just show your projections with me if you don't mind at this stage of stave, how do you think is going to win the selection?

i think it's impossible to predict it is. it is possible that one candidate or the other could sweep all the swing states. it's also possible that it comes down to one electoral boat. okay, well i can probably prognosticate. it's going to be very, very close flight. i think chairs when the popular vote and if i had to flip a coin, it would land on its edge, but i would knock it over and say it was wednesday electoral college. thomas? yeah, i'm very hesitant to make a prediction here, but i do think harris will win the popular about problem is she needs about 3 to 4 percent point margin to win and it's just too close to call at this point. we switch stats totally understand the really appreciate your insight, steve herman slides, what goes to thomas gift. thank you very much indeed and thank you to for watching . you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just go for further discussion, go to all the facebook page. that's facebook dot com,

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there's no limit to have a dream contained to study in your own adventure. no. counter avenues. the the, the hello, i'm for me to muller. this is the news. our life from dell coming up in the next 60 minutes is real bands that you an agency for palestinian refugees. costume of vital support to millions of people on rock condemns it as of rages, grief and anger noise in gaza move in 1000 palestinians. the children, israel's 24 day seed, many of them women and children.