and she will land cut sunday in to monday, but its it long as the dry story across the northeast football, glued ash as well west side across and it port and boot time. but look at that dry, a skies across the north, west of india and pockets done with sunshine will be the dominant and dominating feature into the new week. the us elections are here. join us on november 5th as the results come in and we analyze well need for the us and the rest of the world. the yo selections announces here in the us says, pushing full field between israel and has full on the on group of signals and what don't think anything's fine to an end table in garza. so what would be the tons of any supplements? what does it all mean for 11 and this is inside story, the

hello the welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle, as as well continues to bombard lebanon and hezbollah, to find rockets into israel. negotiations all being held behind closed doors for a deal between the 2 sides. bought with a can take a government unable to form a cabinet. so no president for to use that one is in a will that's pushing its fragile institutions to breaking point as they struggled to respond to the growing humanitarian crisis. why would has block, instead of a deal with israel when it's bound to keep fighting until the seas piece and how we can this be a group off the months of is really strikes death. amazing is leadership. will be exploring these questions. i'm all with all panel of experts and just a moment for this report by excellence i'm of which are after

a year of conflict between israel in his full talk of a ceasefire under a leak us draft of a deal published by it's really public broadcast or con soldiers from the lebanese army could replace his bowl as fighters, lebanese prime minister, and magic mccarty, striking up domestic, but cautious don't boss on this. can you had no other entertainment, we're doing everything we cannot do. we must always keep trying and remain optimistic. hopefully, in the coming hours or days left, we'll see a ceasefire under the draft agreement, $10000.00 lebanese soldiers would be deployed to the southern border. wiley's rarely forces with withdrawal within a week of the hostilities, sending international monitors led by the united states and including european nations with oversee the transition. let me just say that we are working very hard and making progress on reaching understandings of what would be required for the effective implementations. us security council resolution, 17

o one that's the resolution added to 2006, 11 on war betweens. no weapons nor military infrastructure could be deployed south of the economy river, except for those under control of the lebanese army. and the un peacekeeping force . israel was originally meant to remove all its troops from lebanese territory, but the resolution was never fully implemented. and israel continues to occupied parts flipping on and has police accused of building up its arsenal in the south. has bolos reported the willingness to consider pulling back from the border. is a major shift from its previous stance. but israel is demanding the right to respond militarily to any violations. i mean, there's love you. i would like to make it clear. the agreements, papers the proposals, all of these have the place. but the not the main thing. the main things our ability and determination to enforce secuity lebanese officials, including has spa,

see that position as an infringement on their sovereignty. both sides are reported to be negotiating through mediators, while carrying out military operations, distracting their bargaining positions. the success of this proposal may determine whether the region sees a path of stability or a descent into wider conflict x assignment, which, which is 0 for insight story. well, there's bring, you know, a guess now that all in favorites, jamal gossen is a blank to i'm political commentator. hi coleman is project director for a rock, syria, lebanon, the bins, national crisis group, and one each i to is a political commentator and host of the they would find me on if i would welcome to all of you. as we sole the in axles reports, the lebanese can take up prime minister hopes just yesterday, but a ceasefire would begin within hours within days already it seems to be very

different story overnight strikes on bear boots have led him to believe that as well has actually with jack to a cease 5, do hi co, what's going on? but i mean, i mean last night was 24 hours. so because they were quite a few use radio task, which doesn't sound like they, they want to uh or how does the so i didn't time. so i saw the leading draw stuck. humans that were circulated like 48 hours ago and i and i really scratched. and so, you know, i don't know who believes that this, that on this side of that as well it would be, it was agreed to that. and it seems like this was astonished for the american presidential elections. we know there's a big lebanese community, michigan here is the swing states as a substantial to seventies current in pennsylvania, which is a swing state. it doesn't look very serious to me,

to be honest. the 2nd time that the us has proposed a cease fire in the last few months they would propose as a 12 day one is the beginning of this month, which is always full of policy even before it began to be negotiated. does it suggest that it really doesn't have much of an idea of the true situation in the oven and runny? i would look at it slightly differently. i think any ceasefire deal that emerges requires lebanese state agency, which i don't think is very yet. and i'll offer a comparison to july and august 2006, when there was some form of a state capability to try at least to implement what is now known as 170118 years later i don't see the current regime the way it's been configured, and to a large degree, the way it's been paralyzed the last 2 decades. i don't see it taking risks at least for the moment. and i agree with i go the resolution or sorry,

the draft that was leak 2 or 3 days ago. it puts a lot of responsibility on the lebanese government and the lebanese army, but i don't think we'll take risk necessary unless there's some type of political cover, or at least a regional understanding that a chapter is pending and something new is starting an ad to that without serious pressure against both these relays and iran in lab and not, i don't see how this. so this ends well for this country other than familiar stability and stabilisation is not the resolution. stability is what we've lived through since 2006, and it brought us 220232024. i fear that without some kind of resolution, that largely ends external origins, interference and lebanese affairs, whether it's security or otherwise. i don't see how this plays out. well for 11 on in the long term. ok, jamal a able to holes. i said in these draw, leak solve of this proposal, but followed by the us. what do you make of this?

it's a, it's a joke. seriously. i mean, if we're not really looking at that, there's nothing serious about the proposal case. what was the length of it? it's a, it is that it is completely unacceptable of the, from the live in the inside. and then we saw that the actually, even though it's 100 percent pro israel and it the answers all the best at all the demands that they want or the all the which list the as we have the once and 11 non they rejected that. so it's, there is no seriousness and the negotiation is going all right now. and we cannot take time to think about this really is our doing seriously because we saw what they did over the past tier in the past. and we saw how they evaded our they live the light and continued to light about progress in negotiations only to evade any real resolution to continue the, the, to the side of the board that they're carrying out. as the demo has will indicate

the willingness for a cease fire under what terms, what is accept one? well, i mean obviously any ceasefire that does not, and the ongoing, the genocide in guys, that is nothing is not to use anything that would keep it siege, whether on the heads up or 11, not gonna keep millions of people a be seized and open error prison is and will not be acceptable. and he's saying that what does not allow for people in the palestinians. and the libby needs to go back to their normal lives and live normal lives because they didn't never had normal lives and does a if they, if there is a boost and or any solution that's proposed does not guarantee that. then there's nothing serious about that. okay, i run a jamal them very much linking and he says 5 do between hezbollah and as well to a safe while i do between as well. and garza all the indications was that it might be now to set foot trucks. what do you make of it?

that was has been list position from data one bothering october 7 and 11 on case october 8. and the, there is a unity, every nose situation and the pre condition by husband at that time was that a ceasefire and goes as a prerequisite for an end to hostilities, at least between 11 and israel's has been done is real. i don't know if that is something that can be taken too seriously at the moment, given the extreme degradation. and in a way, restriction of has been less capabilities and how we've seen things played out in the last 2 months. i don't know if has been less than a good positioning position right now, and i would take it one step further. i don't know what a wrong can actually salvage at the moment. these would be this, this round, in other words, what kind of security guarantees they can be given that, to what degree allows lebanon to be coupled from guys. so i don't think we're there yet, but i don't know if lebanon and goza can be coupled, and definitely,

and i sense that there was an eagerness, and we see it being at least discussed, that the lebanese government and its current capacity has also changed its tone and the last few weeks you've seen the caretaker prime minister, really extend some kind of whatever is left of his local agency to demand 17 o one. even hezbollah, to a degree even from 2006 has accepted 1717, no one's parameters. i sense that everyone is eager to end this route in the short term, but coupling with guys a at least until now, i think it's not a serious scenario. and i said that there will be a d coupling in india and high k to what extent do you agree with running? because the u. s. has always set the cs flooring. doza would bring de escalation and 11. and now it's saying the exact opposite desk relation and 11 has to happen before a ceasefire and gaza. what do we make of all that?

i mean this got to be this, the idea that that accessible and will be there, so to speak, best for them to uh, to pressure from uh, the stand down as well just to get a ceasefire. look. i mean, it's really hard to uh, to tell us the right behind the curtains around the fighting and how, what as well, that is as desperate and as close to class as the is there a level of training or uh, with best buy is a back on its feet and actually going into a calculated wall attrition. that seems to raise the cost for these ladies to get a better deal to get to get a budget, which is what they say. so, and if you listen to the propaganda,

i would say on both sides you could release those things. you could believe that as well as about to collapse and they couldn't believe that history to suffer and total loss. and i'm not sure if anybody they asked that is it because he shouldn't need to say that was a reasonable thing to me of certainty. but i mean, if it has well, that has indeed, as they say, as it has been displayed a confidence in its capacity to continue just by actually wants to continue this fight to drag it out to, to get a good better tubs. then of course, the idea of the answer, you know, base a base has been the season, but to get them to professor, i'll send out idea will obviously you filled out the window. it's about does has, well i want to continue the fight. they've expressed it directly, they said they just, they did not seek this fight. they didn't want this fight to continue,

but it is connected to the ongoing genocide inc. that is that. so this is the they will stop that they, the genocide stops. so this is the button to, to answer some of the comments that were made the by the other 2 guys. i mean, uh, yes, there are contradicting stories about what kinds of all the standards right now in terms of the military and and capabilities continue. the war and we heard the ship 9 customs say you the other day that they can go for days and weeks and even months . but the idea is that that's not where we look for answers that and we can look at the battlefront we've seen for divisions for the past month of the is really military trying to make to enter the lab and on the ground invasion and all they've been able is to cross a few 100 meters in the bomb a few houses and then withdrawal under and big heavy losses for depth photo op that they're trying to pass as victory to their public. and they haven't been able to,

despite the superior military prowess that they have, they haven't been able to hold a single village on the front, which is sometimes it'll be tension on the board or salt at so to say that's one that has been degraded or that they've been weakened. it is a, an exaggeration that also said change in the rhetoric of the envelope position and that a sub, a couple of weeks ago after they took the series of head stuck in with a picture attached to that such a nation of their leadership that we've seen the people celebrating prematurely, and 11000000 and trying to like, uh, uh, the trying to make dns or trying to catch in the gains off that is really aggressive. but that so and even the that don't, has disappeared then we've seen people have backed off a bit and they see that as well as still saddening on its feet and the, the very much ready to fight for the forcing future. running those, that series of hits, but jamal talks about it was huge, wasn't that the page or

a tax that tons of them to 1000 people, the decapitation of the nita ship of hezbollah, the ongoing for involvement of minute tree facilities, since he thinks of the financial aspects of the medical aspects, and that's, and as we see from last night, is still going on. how we can thing, you see those 11 and all the people in lebanon see, has philosophy at this stage. i think in a, in a sense both statements are true. in other words, has been, a fighters are experienced fighters. this is not the 1st round they've had with is really soldiers. and this is familiar terrain. i mean, it's less than 2 decades ago. this around lead to a stand still, if you will, in the south that produced the ceasefire. 17 o one has butler is most familiar with fighting is real. even though that has not been what they've been doing for the better part of 2 decades. they're still

inexperienced paramilitary force, so i think that is true. they can fight aggressively from love and on and at times succeed, i think the opposite end, which is the capabilities of the runs security and how that security is expressed. whether it's through a paramilitary, a forest lake has beloved or what the running regime is trying to gain diplomatically from this route. i think that's been severely cartel 10. i don't think it's an understatement to say, but has butler has taken a heavy blow beyond the, beyond the killing of has something to throw that which isn't itself a big psychological blow to the group. but i don't think that can be understated the entire command structure and the communications disaster that we saw playing out and loving on with over a 1500 husbands. the members injured, whether it's maimed or losing arms hands that is taking a serious blow. but it does not spell out that the feet of has, but i think that would be taking it too far. and i don't think these really can

actually defeat has below. and i don't really think that's what they're trying to do either. i think what is happening on the battlefield is that these really is, are trying to handicap has been low from ever finding is real again from 11 on what that means. long term and little bit on his premature what has well, it looks like later i think it's too early to tell me, but it's clear. unfortunately, unfortunately, the security situation that's been played out in recent months has been largely on israel's terms. and hence, you've seen widespread destruction. 25 percent of the population of this country is the, the displaced you have almost the same buffer zone. re emerging that existed in the south prior to israel's withdrawal in may 2000. happening once more except the populated and destroyed by constant is really selling constant is really bombing and the destruction of villages. i think that is the security situation and in a sense, a nightmare for 11 on that's being played out. and the reason i'm going find my language is because this is really the failure of diplomacy. the diplomacy,

this mound required a lebanese government that could take a rule that it hasn't played in a long time. okay, so yeah, for an independent just jump in that because i want to pick up on that because we've talked a lot about the military, the security aspect to 11. now let's as you say, want any drill down into the political situation. i can 11, it has been without a president for 2 years now. is the country any closer to electing one now? that it has it, any of the, of the 12 times it's trying to, or i don't really think so i'm, i mean, we are still when it comes to presidential elections and the formation of the government. i mean, you're still in the same situation that there is a, that there's a division that the country is divided. this did you call the, obviously the, the conflict to know that the war that's been going on. all the increases that pull

arise ation, as well as one side side of the politics accuses as below the drag and them into the previous to the or rigorously. and that has about law as isabella believes in increasingly belief. that's the other side. opponents are caring. what the price for how the us so so for that position is there and i think from the perspective on as well as sees these attempts to uh, to now fix the level of the system. perhaps what needs to, to find the president all push to a president or a and the stablish. the government said that as an attempt to use the easiest city situations to close it into standing the and to not only i think the find something diseased by on his way the times about to accept this argument on how to use the mouse. all these various resolution,

it's not saying that this is the case. i'm not saying that this is on the other side of the gibson elias sees it that way, then i don't think we are any closer to a solution of the political style mains. and even if a blessing guess to hearts and then i think there is also a potential for violence for right. okay, so jump out. let's pick up on that to speaker of parliament because a share might be barry saying that he supports the election of a president to does not represent a challenge to anyone. is that such a person? uh uh yes, they can bring uh any, uh, a figurehead president with no powers that can be pushed uh by both sides and the but that's not, i mean it's too soon. it too early to talk about presidential elections. i think

the result of the war will have them heavy impact on who is a selective president. they don't elect the president a related, basically selected a and the select them. and there's the obviously the, there are 2 major candidates. so one for each cap, there's a point that we haven't made that's old during the show, and we forgot to mention that a that says not just him, it's really aggression 11, not this isn't american is ready to aggression, 11 known and they are very much involved that in terms of supplying weapons and pushing for political solutions that send us or israel and american interest, and they are, they want the, the lebanese army general, the army commander. and i was, was that our as a president, that wouldn't be present american interests and 11 though. i think that will never happen as long as anybody's resistance is not defeated. so that's off the table

right now on the, on the other side of course. so there's a preference for a statement frenzy who would be that choice of the pro resistance can. but the, again, this is a, we're very far from a lifting of president. this is not the end. it's not the magical solution that will end all the problems of their lives in the state. okay. and the state needs set to be rebuilt on a proper pillars that never existed throughout the history of living. and that's something that, that's a major project that needs the all political powers to protect and hold their hands together to do that. okay, that as it may, what do we do? have a vacuum that needs filling, and hezbollah and his allies. they have been breaking the core and that's needed in solvent to hold a vice every single time they've tried to because they do not support the opposition candidates. the question is now with hezbollah taking the hips, that it hasn't been involved in this move. the government doesn't want all these

allies willing to stand by has bla. so i think looking a bit in terms of recent history, the scenario that we currently have regardless of where hezbollah is on the battlefield. i think this in this situation we're in, is that the lebanese state and how it expresses itself in terms of even demands and diplomacy has been battered to the point of barely expressing anything that is other than preserving husband loves interest by extension a wrong even though there is still a government and there is still state agents due to a degree, the lebanese interest and disengagement, and to a degree distancing itself. but the country to its fullest extent, this the distance think itself, whether it's had madison is real or other conflicts. later. that expression has been battered, it has been systematically targeted. and i think the polarization discourse,

mrs. one point, which is that this is not 2 sides of equal measure. these are not 2 security funds battling for leverage and 11 on there is a security force sponsored by here on that has strangled lebanese politics and the opposition that we've been talking about. i don't think has the tools necessary to politics at least to challenge that order. and i'll go one step further. i don't think we're there yet. in other words, it's too early to tell how this round ends and i don't think has been that will be defeated in a way that is extreme. whether that's is really discourse or otherwise. and i don't know what has been that will, will express itself a long term at least politically. but without the dignified exit for has been the fighters to join the lebanese army. and this is maybe a pipe dream. but without an honorable and to hezbollah, as a parent military force in this country,

i fear stability will dictate the long term meaning step of the zation that was kept for many years. other problems in loveland, on to whether it was the serial occupation until 2005 or these really occupational until may 2000. i see a battlefield scenario that comes down, but does not allow lebanon to regain its last independence. that is a mission that is also, it's a, it's a road map if you will. that's not just and 17 or one. obviously some other resolutions to some of them are brought up from time to time. some of them are not whether it's $1680.00 visa v, sylvia and the syrian border, whether it's $1559.00, that's all of them in the hall. substrate militia, i fear, i fear, and i'll just have one more thing. i fear that unless all of these things are addressed this round, you will see a return to august 2006, and unfortunately another round of conflict. okay, well let's just a round of the discussion by returning to the ministry situation because this

proposed deal does talk about a 10000 strong lebanese ami, occupying the something area of lebanon to enforce the resolution, 17 o one on previous resolutions, which of course is full the disarmament of hezbollah and for it to a treat to be on the tani river hicho. is this a realistic possibility? a well, that's a tall order basically, and has a question already look, i mean the bottom line is in this is isabella going to cooperate? or is what are going to be this completely destroyed as a military extra. that is, that it is no longer in a position to do whole corporation. i think the answer to both questions is no. they don't cooperate and then not be sufficiently to be taken out of

the question. the then the, it's, it's all the increments of, of, and i mean of a senior american official was towards the, one of my police and everybody knew in 2006 that 17 or one that was implemented to we may indeed i agree with the wrong you know, we may end up in a similar situation where and in august 2006, we are aware that we are basically as well decides, okay, um, we can change so now for now and, and achieving what we really want the required time investment that you're not willing to make sure. okay, and then we have back to, to 2006 or on or we have, we don't stick with me continue for a month because i'm not this problem. unfortunately. also, passivity. well,

on those 2 possibilities we'll have to leave our discussion for today money. thanks indeed tool i guess for joining us demo gossen. hi coleman and run a chat and thank you to for watching. you can see this program again, any time by visiting our website, the sound 0 dot com for further discussion. do you guys? well, facebook page, that's facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on x a homeless at a inside story from me, laura kyle and the whole seen him twice in the the

limits to how far the dream contains sta in your own adventure, now counter and wayne. the how many boxes and the top story is allowed to say about the 3rd and final phase of a podium vaccination campaign is underway in kansas city in the north of the strip w h. o says the immunizations will be carried out over a 3 day pause and fight again. that specific area spots about $15000.00 children under the age of 10 and the towns further north to be made and accessible to the israel's monks long siege that a correspondent attack of those who missed following the story from downtown by law . we know that they have been also raising the land is about the necessity of

receiving that vaccination. fuck.