sta in your own adventure, now counter airway. the make america great. i guess we are not any election like know whether it's fed every 4 years, but it's never been more to what began as a re match between 20 twenties candidates became something very different, offering both generational change and to divergent visions of america and it's future. i'm sort of any age and i'm for the back people from on google headquarters

in dough. ok, welcome to, i'll just hear a special coverage of the 2020 for us presidential election will follow coming to harris as she attempts to make history by becoming the 1st female president of the united states. while her republican rival donald trump 6 to reclaim the white house, something no former president has accomplished it more than a 130 years when expo what the next president will mean for both america and america's role in the world. and i'll be bringing you the latest data and results from around the country, especially from the 7 battleground states where this election is almost certain to be decided on james phase in washington, dc election studio overlooking the white house. i'll be speaking to a series of guests from across the political spectrum and asking them what the results mean for america's place in the years to come. and for the us is placed in a turbulent world. we also have course london standing by across the country. you

know, those 7 coastal swings stays from georgia in the east all the way to nevada in the west. but 1st, let's check in with both campaigns. donald trump is in florida where alan fisher was standing by, but for his live to kimberly hawk it, was it coming to harry says election watch party on the campus of howard university in washington dc. kimberly we're here in washington t. c at howard university. this is the vice president comma, la harris's alma mater, but it is also significant and important to her because this is a historically black university that is important to her because this is where she also lots term presidential campaign back in 2019. before dropping out. now, is she, of course, did become jo bivens running, made eventually becoming the vice president making history as the 1st female to do

so. now she is hoping to become the 1st female president of the united states. let's check in now with alice fisher and the trump campaign. or i'm in west palm beach in florida, or donald trump will have a watch night party and his team believes a celebration as a re claims the white house. remember, donald trump has run for office as president of the united states. 3 times now. you won, won in 2016, lost in 2020. and many people believe his running 2024 was killed by the fact that he was facing many legal problems. i could claim that this was electrolyte into feelings. if it go into way of his electro run, he spent the last week or so, criss crossing. the 7 swing states hoping to convince voters of his closing argument. the couple of his has broken the united states over the last 4 years. the ordinary people are struggling on c alone can fix it. if he does what it will be an

incredible turn, the right if he loses the faces the prospect of federal court cases. perhaps even a deal sense. while a great deal of anticipation is we gear up to the 1st balls closing in just a few hours. holland, kimberly thank you both. that's now bringing, i'll guess who will be here with us to the night. our shot assigned is a democratic political strategist in founder and principal at convey communications . and james davis is a republican strategist and founder and president of touch down technologies. so grateful to have you both here tonight for this consequential night in the united states arshad for us. what does it stay tonight for america? and for the rest of the world to tonight's the night tonight is a night. the voters choose between 2 very different futures. 2 very different visions for this country. so much as a state. these are candidates with highly contrasting views on the climate and what to do, but dangerous changes in the climate about our rights and freedoms and the role of government to take them away or not, including the right,

whether if or when to start a family. and just our role in the world in foreign policy. so much is at stake. i don't think that it is an exaggeration to say that our democracy and our freedoms are at stake so much. i'd state james, no matter who wins, history will be made right. what are you looking out for? i'm going to start by agreeing with our shot to night is the night. for many americans. politics has become sport and it's the super bowl. i mean combo was able to skip the primary season and get stuck it right in the big game. so it might be a move democrats regret later on. voters are starting to look at policies and they're starting to say, you know, can we, can we deal with this record inflation? can we deal with the chaos at the border? what about the foreign policy blunders? americans are really on satisfied and they want to make a move. kamel is trying to run as though she's not the incumbent here. she's trying to say, if you elect me, i'll fix all these things. voters,

i don't know that they're going to be full here. and so i'm gonna look and see if the blue wall cobbler's, blue wall starts to crumble. we'll also be looking at the swing states and key demographics. really looking at young man in particular, a demographic get trump the don't want to appeal to doesn't truth is traditionally break republican or get out and vote. all right, it's all about the math night, james, and i'll show, thank you both all about the math. let's go to our states a wall with serial viney and is big data team. we're going to be looking at the numbers for a swat tonight. what should we expect fully? it is great to be with you tonight and with your i guess i'm going to make one prediction right off the bat. i think i can call this one pretty safely. we are in for a long night, maybe even days the us presidential election is unique. it can be confusing, very confusing, so i'll just the results team will be walking you through all of it. and here's where we start by now, of course, the words will be familiar with these spaces. the candidates, the democrats is vice president, couple of harris, the 1st south asian and black women on a major parties,

presidential ticket. her challenger, really needs the introduction. donald trump, the 1st floor and president of the united states to be criminally convicted. he is the republican presidential candidate. so what we want to do right now is familiarize you with the tools we're gonna be using tonight. we're focused of course, on the electoral college, $538.00 votes, representing all 50 us states plus washington dc. this isn't 0 right now, but it is gonna populate automatically. you'll see it at the same time that i see it so to when you need house of these plus one. so if you do the math, that's $270.00 electoral votes. remember that number because you will hear it all the time, 270. that is, there are tickets to the white house as the night progresses, you'll be seeing this map filling up with either red or blue. so states going for donald trump and red and blue states. are those a go for complet harris? we're calling this the state of the rates. you'll see it a ton. very important to understand from the outset. around 43 states and america have consistently voted either one way or the other in the past. several elections

. i know this is confusing right now, but when we want to get to use the big picture, the road either red or blue pretty consistently. these states here are reliably republican, these will very likely go for trump and you have the same thing. on the other side, the blue side, these are reliably blue. these are very likely to go blue for complet harris. what does that mean? it means we're paying extra close attention to the ones that we cannot predict. the 7 swing states in yellow, where the race is very types. remember these 7 mates, arizona, georgia, michigan, north carolina, nevada, pennsylvania, wisconsin. together they accounts for $93.00 electoral votes. those are the make or break both, so we'll likely decide the presidency in the great lakes region right here. let's do some geography, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania in the south right here, georgia, north carolina, and then the south, west, nevada, and arizona. that's what we have right now. right, those swing states very, very unpredictable as you say. but what do the polls say about them and can we

trust the polls? it's a great question. it's a question. everybody's asking the short answer, and i'm going to expand on it, is that the polls have a trump problem. so let's bring you over here over there will be the results. well over here is when we want to focus on something and we'll keep those separate. complet harris in the national polls going into the election is ahead by barely more than one percentage point. she's at 48, right. donald trump is pulling at wait for it. 46.8 percent. so this is all within the margin of polling error, which means the race has a dead heat that go back through months. pay attention to the blue line. this is the tickets which this point here. that's where joe biden drops, outcome with harris steps in. and of course she immediately, as we know, gives the democratic ticket a boost. that's what it looks like. then her numbers steadily increase and then this gap isn't arrows. so for these question, can you trust these numbers? the short answer is not really. here's why. look at what the national post predicted on election day in 2016 and then 2020 trump was running. of course,

both times. 4 years ago, joe biden had a more than 8 point lead 8 points over trump going into election day in 2016. when hillary clinton was the democratic candidate, she also had a clear lead in the polls. you see here some pulses predicted at the time she had a 90 percent chance of winning the election. or here's what actually happened in 2020, it turned out to be a lot closer than predicted. that was draw biden's final score pretty close to the polling. but look at trunk. that was further away from what the polling had predicted. right. trump got almost 47 percent of the votes. that is far more then polls had predicted. in fact, the margin of the 2020 pulling arrow was the highest and for decades for the national popular vote. what about 2016 clinton got more votes than trump? yes. but of course you lost the election defying all predictions. define all polls . last thing tonight at this wall and at that wall is going to be all about the electro map. but i do want to tell you about the issues or guess we're talking

about that. so one of the issues in 2024. here's how harrison trump stack up on the issues that matter to american voters, we're talking economy number one, immigration number 2, and then low or down, you've got a portion and unity voters perceive trump a stronger on the economy and emigration. 55 and 62 percent respectively. it's pretty clear, but they prefer harris on this to abortion. and unity keeping the country together, 55 and 41 percent. so fully, that's where we are right now. the reality is that polls as i was saying, have a truck problem because we have under counted his support in 2016 in 20. 20 of course posters have adjusted their models. they're working on that. they don't want to get it wrong a 3rd time, but they haven't yet proven right that they know how to accurately count and predict the level of support for donald trump. indeed. and it'll be interesting to see whether they over compensate for him this time or on, right, for 5, the cut over, correct indeed. thank you so much, cheryl for that. well, let's now check in with our correspondence in those crucial battleground states

that the sale was just talking about. in a moment, we'll get an update from teresa bowl was in dearborn, michigan. the city is home to a big american community, but for us to speak to mike honda, who is joining us from philadelphia, which is in one of the most crucial swing states of all pennsylvania, mike, pennsylvania, always a strong indicator of which way voters sentiment is going to go, but it also takes time for pennsylvania to count. it's valid the, it doesn't tell you this. one of the states where the counting of the postal ballots only starts. when the polls open on the day of voting, some states start typing them before that will show to time in terms of results coming in. pennsylvania know, so this is one of the factors that will slow the results in this particular race. one must remember, as well as that the whole counting process is laborious. once again, when you are taking out mailing benefits, you are moving them in,

move to different unplug, so you've got to open hand into and then digitize by hand. so it's all a very slow, laborious process, and this is something that always slows the votes here and in pennsylvania, in the 2020 to mid term elections. me a quote of voters that voted by mail, invalid. so it's a significant amount of votes that have to be counted that could extend the waiting time. now the issue is we've had as well, cambria county, a sizable part of western pennsylvania. there was a problem with the software in the election machines, the, they would no longer able to scan ballots. people have to put it in balance by hand . they have to be recorded by hand. this of course, slow the whole process down the come to your elections board decided to extend the voting so both team will be going late to in cambria county. this is just one of the problems that is being faced in the course of the day. but that means that that particular county's results will be coming in late to then many of the other more

than 60 counties in pennsylvania. this is a reason why generally the results from pennsylvania tend to lag behind, but also the enormity of the 19 electoral college votes on state at stake here. and obviously that count has to be terribly careful where you've got that type of stakes writing on the result. indeed, and it could be a while, as you said, before we get those results from that crucial thing, state of pennsylvania, we'll check in with you. of course we're of the nights at my kinda in philadelphia . then let's cross over now to dba on michigan, where theresa bo is theresa. michigan has become really symbolic of the nationwide backlash over present 5 and support for his routes. war on guys i could michigan break from the wall was suddenly michigan was part of the blue was states until donald trump one here back in 2016

later, one in 2020. he was defeated by joe biden. the big question now is when here, where i am right now in dearborn has the largest concentration of muslim arab americans in the country. and traditionally this people voted for the democratic party. but that's something that's started to change, mostly because of the ongoing war on garza and 11 and lots of anger, resend somebody. even pain because people tell us, but they have read relatives of course suffering with the wars right now. it's like what you can see right behind me here. there's a line on the floor. all of these people that you can see here are supporters of the republican party of donald trump. they've been asking people who are coming into this polling stations to vote for donald trump. they're saying that joe biden has failed at the arab american population. here we've been talking to lots of people here, and some of them have been telling us that they would vote for donald trump. however, others are saying that they would vote for jill state issues from the green party.

someone that has been consistently calling for a humanitarian ceasefire. so suddenly people here are saying that at this point that they are crucial for this selection. that's why we have about 3 more hours to go before this pulling station close is here right now there's 15 electric volts, that's peak here in michigan, and definitely all lies are on the arab american vote here and the impact it will have on this presidential race ok, thank you very much, very simple life for us that in michigan with the latest. let's now take you live to jane space and his panel of guess in washington dc. jane's thank you for holding and welcome to our vantage point here in washington overlooking the white house. of course this is where both candidates are trying to get to. uh we have uh over the last week or so be discussing. busy these issues and electrical trends in the us now were putting de, let's meet our panel,

who's with us. i have john ferry, who's a republican strategist upon the e s. b advocacy, a strategic advocacy firm, representing corporations also have joined shanie with us. she's a democratic political strategist who subs and the obama administration to the end of the table out is there a view is what need and instructions. the problems who is host of out to 0 is the bottom line. i 1st like to go to use steve, put on polls for a 2nd vi election. but i think the timing is related to the election. the israeli prime minister sacking his defense minister netanyahu 2nd a gallon and i'm a, do you think the timing is a coincidence? so do you think they were deliberately doing this because they didn't, they know the us is tied out? absolutely. i mean, prime minister netanyahu has been trying to fire his defense minister for a long time. he had tried previously and literally hundreds of thousands of people went into the street in support of go on the line as perceived to be a bridge to joe biden and to campbell harris. and so on election day,

a prime minister netanyahu blew up that bridge. yeah, because he, as he say, he got on pretty well as we understand between lloyd with the latest in the us defense secretary, that's right. was one of the areas, perhaps few areas of leverage of nets and yahoo because whenever the us has said, we want restraint, we've not seen a lot of it. no, not at all. i think that he's blowing through every time if for the most part with maybe the exception of how they are recently. how is real struct back it a ron? where they kind of gave a polite strike that showed some evidence of the white house's influence in that case. but virtually every other time is really prime minister. netanyahu blew blew past those restraints. and a lot was always someone with bringing his ear. that's a mistake. that's a mistake and had a different vibe in the way he sort of saw is real security equities right now. and, you know, who does not want a ne, say around him,

just another indication to fight it. so many americans get to vote. but every one in the world cares about what's going on in this account. country right now, i want to speak to both you joy, joy, and john, about how you feel right now. the republican and democrat, the polls about to close and some of the stress states. john 1st, what, see what are, what do you feel confident? i feel confident for every election. now the question is, am i, is that misplaced or not? i, i think i feel confident this election particular because trump has never been this close in the polls. he's never bank this many votes in the early vote, which he's done for the 1st time. and we tell people no to the level that's exactly right. and i think we can pick out the votes in i think that if you're thinking about the direction of the country, right, track wrong track, people want to change and they come here. so then right to say that people want to turn the page. but i think she's wrong when she thinks that go continue the policies of biden's and harris. i think what, what they're saying has changed back to donald trump. i think that the,

the economy is still not doing great in the minds of lot people. and this right now is much more of a working class party than i used to be used to be a party, believes that, that anymore. so we have lots of big numbers. i talked to the trump campaign, they're very confident. we'll see that confidence is misplaced or not. i think it's a thing i don't think is misplaced joy. if you look at the higher as campaign, many would say it was a given that such a short campaign name started in july. it's textbook in terms of the fundraising, in terms of the way she's done things with perhaps the exception to what we're talking about earlier. the war in the middle east. because there are lots criticizing that for not saying more on on that issue. and yet, despite that, she's still according to the polls that kinetic all the polls wrong. look, i mean, we're going to find out, i think the, one of the things i will say about the polls is they never figured out how to pull black people. they've never figured out how to pull at dental. they never figured out how to pull people who are not, you know, to so called, you know, main screen, white voter. so we're going to see, right. i think we'll learn a lot more about how to pull this diverse selector, and i think there are

a lot of hidden votes for kimberly harris, just as i think before. and perhaps tonight there will be a lot of hidden vote for donald trump. we are so divided in our country and faith and who doesn't want to admit to that they wouldn't tell post as the truth. they won't tell posters the truth either when they don't believe in being asked or to they're afraid of what might happen in the judgements that would be made for them if they are republican who's supporting harris or there anyone supporting donald trump? and let me just say i want, we just talked about israel and then gov and then the switch that then yeah, made michigan polls are still open if you are a voter in michigan and you and this is an issue for you. what's happening in the middle east is an issue for you. you do not want donald trump as president. polls is still open, go out and vote well to be careful, right? we're talking about the service st. swing states. we're not doing campaigning on the show. okay. okay. so don't worry about the $77.00 swing states and michigan being one of them lead time. i think we checked in with some of our correspondents

in these the, the swing states. first let's go to phil laval and carry north carolina. phil wants to turn out the like the, well, the other thing is be taking place. so it's been a slightly different picture to a lot of other states, you know, some places in north carolina that happy lines, but certainly nothing like we've seen in some of the other states. but that doesn't mean the people on, but the thing is that fall from it. that is because the voting, the system here has been very different. people have really embraced, revising. so get this for the numbers. there are 7700000 registered voters in north carolina, also 7700000 before cody opened dahlia today. 4.2000000 had voted and we are told that the biggest squeeze of that event, which is with those actually in areas that were hit by hurricane high leave, that we have some stats for you on this when he plays in. so just the important so everything plays out here, james festival, a 3rd of people in this state live in a rule rule setting. secondly, a 3rd of them also identified as even jo,

who christian. now what does that tell us that tells us 2 things. festival role issues will be a big factor, also issue surrounding the disaster relief effort around hurricane lead. and of course, abortion abortion access, which of course is one of the things that come about how his talks about a lot. so that's a very complex process. but here, there are 16 electoral college votes and what makes north carolina extra extra interesting is the way that things have changed. earlier this year this seemed like a total lock up for donald trump. he was running against joe biden. the numbers made uh edit the most sense for him. but what the democrats had seen is that donald trump's margin of victory had gone down when kind of the harvest came on the ticket, federal change that this became a neck and that christ. and you've got to remember that north carolina has typically voted for a republican president, consistently a pa, for direct deposit and 2008. and jimmy cost a fucking 1976. that is it. but it also tends to vote for a democratic governor. and there was also a vote for a government taking place here. and let me just explain where we are. we're in

kerry, this is like what i flew in town just outside raleigh. i'm the, a lot of liberals here. so you can expect a lot of people to be fighting. so it comes to harrison post to donald trump, where actually a watch policy, people are due to arrive at the time soon when they get off work. i get this, this is how people are feeling tonight. we're going to be 2 themes at taylor swift and puppies because we are told that what everybody needs at the end of a very long and exhausting election cycle. adults and taylor swift. thank you very much, phil. laval in north carolina, which is one of the places that we are hoping to swing states to perhaps we'll get some results live in some of the other swing states, all those other swing states. but we're going to go to georgia now john henry, and joins us from gwinnett county near atlanta in georgia. the polls are open for a couple more hours. hows voting going in georgia? i'm giving what happened in 2020 any irregularities being reported?

well, james, 1st of all, welcome to the gwinnett county election, the headquarters. this is one of those open observer states. so we're actually in the ballot processing area. these are actual election workers. if you look over to this side, those black boxes, those are scanners in, inside of them, that's where the that's where the, those were. ready scanned the memory cards that come out of those have already been taken to the counting area. they call the fish bowl. and over on this side, this is where they've been processing mailing balance, and they processed all of those up to election day. what they're processing right. now is just what has come in on election day. and the numbers are huge. before election day, we had 4000000 votes. they anticipate that another 1000000 or 1200000 coming over the course of this day. and they expect that to set a new record that is according to the secretary of state here in georgia. so record

turnout is expected. this is an area that's part of the atlanta metro area. so it's a big blue blob in the middle of the state. the colored red, that's the republican color and we expect the close close at 7 and by law because this was the state that last reported in 2020 and it took 16 days for those folks to be officially tally. they changed a lot and made it really speedy, and they put in a fast lane. so all, all of those votes that were to be counted before election day that was have to be reported an hour after the pool is closed tonight. and then the rest of them, all those that came in today will be counted over the course of the night. and the secretary of state expects the vote to be entirely tallied here by midnight. that's just several hours from now. james. thank you very much. john will back with all panel we've got just over how for now, but for the very 1st polls close, they are indiana in kentucky,

which i don't think are really going to give us any surprises. but let's go through the panel and, and, and find out what as the results come in, where other places you'll be looking among the early results. john, for any sort of of trends. well, i think you've started with 2 good places of north carolina and georgia. um, you know, i do think that they have a governor's race which is not gonna go off the republicans and so that might be the they can picking it up, they're all out of their system to work for the democrats and then vote for trump. i think george obviously is going to be extremely close looking for those early returns coming out of out of, of, of the georgia is a lot of suburbs. and, you know, i think that you look at that. i do actually think that there's a seat in kentucky that always surprises me and lexington area. just want to see the turn out there and see how republicans are welcome joy. where are you looking? i'm looking at places where either time should be over performing or harris should be over performing. so not just states, but actually counties right,

early returns. how big are those gaps, right, so we're expecting to have a place where kimberly, here is, should be doing well. we want her to be doing really well. there are tons of whole states. i'm curious about i was given the poles that we just heard recently for your viewers out there. that always goes read to the republic. just explain that that was yeah. whole there was one point just one pole and we've got hundreds of poles except the past, your license as entire student biden's place in the race. but this is from a very reputable poster who normally gets things right in that state. she's absent so she specifically deals with that state. um if iowa, which was last time one by trump, with an 8 percent module. yeah. if that was to go anywhere near harris. yeah. does . does that have a bearing on other states? if it's the signal secondary in the mind to build, right? it says this is a problem. he shouldn't have to be going to north carolina. he shouldn't have to be looking at poles that app him upside down in iowa. that signals that things are

looking different than we expect and that in that case there in her favor. so. so i'm sure his campaign would have loved have seen a go the opposite way. do i think she's going to win? i or what? no. but the fact that is even close signals that something else is happening in the country. and we're looking at those hidden comma harris, both. okay steve quickly. um one, where are you gonna be looking but to you being a journalist and this time for a long time and i know you were on the 5 and to lots of people, what are you hearing to okay here the case that some are making that donald trump has to fix in and it's going to be as landslide, his favor here. exactly the opposite from democrats. i know so you're going to be so surprised the council here as is already it's, it's a to nami coming, but let's just be serious. it's going to be a tight race, is it looks like right now i'm gonna look down to the eastern seaboard and much like my colleagues. look at some of the counties, even states that we think are predictable, like florida. i don't care about florida state. i care how blue or red certain

counties are. how is women's turn out? what's happening with the kind of the overall picture when, when i was on al jazeera and i saw off and i basically said i got chewed out on the said we may be on the side of a historic upset, upset, or donald trump, maybe the winner and hillary clinton loser, i saw that in counties in florida that hillary clinton's team thought they were going to do overwhelmingly well in and are you could see very quickly they were not . so i'll be looking at some of those same counties and of course towards united north carolina which are going to process their votes very, i think quickly. and we'll get a good to a feel for the flavor of the night. so let me echo that. and so in 2016 i was in florida. i was in central florida and i knew, you know, we would probably carry spectrum florida clinton, but it wasn't great. it wasn't be enthusiasm, it wasn't the excitement. so that was a signal. so i think the trump campaign to night might be feeling like, where are we seeing less lack of excitement when we should be seeing more drones, one other place, new hampshire. donald trump is storming new hampshire. kelly that's on top of the

ticket. that is governor. if he went to new hampshire is gonna shock everybody because he wasn't expected to end, but he's within 3 or 4 points. i think we have here is we early state and there's a chance that he might want to let started quickly look back at the campaign. we'll look at all of the topics and issues and reasons people the minute. but sometimes it's down to events. it's down to october, but surprises if you could make an argument that actually the surprise is all happened in the summer, the assassination attempt on donald trump, and then that a full debate for joe biden. and something that we've not seen before. the, the president deciding not to continue his campaign and a couple of harris taking over that was the surprise of his company. and was it not? well, the thing about this campaign is it started stream a early and a voting started extremely early, and trump engaged extremely early. so whatever happened late in the camp,

and usually you had, when george w bush had the drunk driving the incident, they really changed the shape of the election. i don't think you're gonna have that right now because it's been slow moving, tre wrecked, and just had quite god forever. and that, that's going to that, that means that all those things get kind of ironed out. but your point is the biggest change of this election was taking the kind of land and joe out, and that's something that's really change everything. joy. what about some of the things we've seen in recent weeks will have had a last thing effect on photos. and i'm thinking particularly latino voters with that madison square garden rally. donald trump wanted to make a trans riley in his home town of new york and show of course, you know, this was a big moment for him. and it really rolled the back fog. didn't know that's right, it wasn't an october surprise, but it certainly was an october blunder. um, you know, to go out there and to say those things for people who were looking at him wondering, you know, could it be ok, are there, you know, maybe they forgotten who he was? maybe they have forgotten the ridiculousness of some of the earlier antics. he

reminded them right before the election, when they don't have time to forget that this is who we is. this is who we also brings with them. this is the chaos, the racism, the bigotry is not just what he said about puerto rico or is committee. and his guest set about puerto rico was also the things that you know of the cozying up with nazis. what like, that's not anything that should have happened in previously calling america trash. i mean that's just nothing that should have happened as close to the election. so while kimberly harris was making her closing argument about unity and bringing us together, he was reminding people that he is frankly engaging and a little bit of background. so on joe, we have a new cycle that do, you know, is one side than the other. and of course we have that coming from by knew that but by realizing the god of the covers both amos mother from from he was trying to respond to that. and he said, that's uh, that's uh the problem support is with god. visual may have meant the comedian support, we've got, we don't know what comments that were made were garbage bought the p. that's how

that's how do you said, but what do you but either way, is that something i would say either way, john, you would probably accept the the original riley was damaging them. biden's comments because spike is not running. well, i don't actually, i don't don't agree with that and i actually don't. so don't think that it made that big of a difference. i mean, i think that 1st i was comedian, wasn't probably something even though the guy at the end of the day there people are not as people are but not voting. um, those types of comments are holding on their own economic interest and they're not voting on whatever parlor games are going on in washington dc. they're going on where they feel the country is going and who could best leave them and in the country, they might think it's comm layers. they might think is down from that. they certainly don't care about some joke in madison square guy. john, can i just say one thing? i think you're right for the best majority of people, but as we get down to the end, right. well, it's because a few things we want to move here in mirror. puerto ricans in florida and over in new york and other places, right? where we, we know we have people who is open the door for folks who, you know,

might have been aligned with him who are like, not this guy. i don't want this again, that's the thing, it's not all of, it's not you and i, we've already decided it's those people who are on the margin to of that. let me bring in my mind me, mind mutual talent. i see here's the what, how important all these sorts of gaps and surprises. and also if it's a close race, everything is important. if it's a close race in pennsylvania, the puerto rico comments are, are going to make it a, it'd be a difference if she wins and trump loses. if trump wins michigan, the gaza, or the middle east conflict and the inability of the bite and white house to bring that in a different direction is going to be one of the issues that probably matters. you know, for a lot of centrist and independence, we'll have to see how they break. you know, maybe a trumps comments about deploying the military domestically against enemies within might have made a difference. but the truth is the race looks so close. so close, we have to understand they half the country supports one of these individuals and a half the country supports the other. that's the bottom line. let me see,

let me bring in another element, how important of some of the endorsements from people. because we've seen couple of harris we've seen about a week. right. and we'd be on as a lady, go with the lady, god dental that was off putting for something. and then on the other side of joe rogan, who was the most popular pub costa, in the world actually. and the 5 allow is coming out for trump. these things make sway and lots of folks. i agree with john that at this point they make almost no difference. but here's the deal. they're not chasing voters that were likely to vote or go out the vote. they're chasing. brothers, sisters, cousins, aunts, uncle, most most of aunts of already with aunts. vote. uncles don't, so maybe the they're, they're trying to chase that last uncle who might not have gotten off the couch even president trump said, hey, get that fat person off the couch and kind of come in here and, you know, vote something like that. and i think that along those lines you have, um, uh, those are his words. and uh, you know, basically kind of demeaning people as they can get them off the couch and get them

out to vote. because these are people that wouldn't likely vote any way. and that's what they're, they're racing john, steve, i hope you wasn't talking about me. huh. yep, i did. i did vote this morning by the way, if you look the, you know, i, i think that steve's right. and it's like breaking things. my guess my point is that this has been such a long campaign that then these and with trump, what you say, so long cut back. you could argue, since harris has come in and it's actually one of the most compressed come point. my point is people have started voting in such a long project voting for a mazda republican. they keep, and they, for the republicans finally started to engage on that. and you know what truck, he starts these things all the time. i mean, he's like, this is what he does. he's always entertaining. sometimes it's something sometimes stupified, but he's never, he's always, he's never dole, but he's never consistent. and i think that is most entertaining, also infuriating of yours campaign manager. and i don't know if that's i think people know him. the question is, and harris has run a very disciplined campaign, really, as a said much. and i think what she's hoping for is that from gets all of the,

all the kind of notice and she gets away with not saying anything because it wasn't working the very quickly. okay. one quick thing, john just hit the, the republican participation in this race early, early voting, mailing voting drop off. voting is astoundingly high. and these are things donald trump was instructing that his team not to do before because it gave him a pathway to challenge what's interesting is that the robust participation of republicans up to this point has just neutralized one of the ways that donald trump could contest the election, steve and john enjoy. we'll be back with you later on. right now though to fully and this, even though create discussion, james. very lively the to hear from your panelists and we know for to force to getting more very actions once those 1st results start coming in the 1st falls, as james said, we'll close in about 20 minutes or so now in indiana, in kentucky. but the ones that were looking out for is about an hour and a half from now when south carolina, vermont, and virginia close. and hopefully we'll get some numbers by then. in the meantime,

let's continue to check in with our correspondence across the united states. how do you feel comfortable? isn't milwaukee wisconscin? joining us now, live wisconsin. heidi fixed the winning presidential candidate in both 201620. 25. a margin of just more than $20000.00 votes each time. how is it looking this time around? hopefully everything is smooth. thus far reported across the state, we saw a record turnout in early voting. and here in this pulling location, which is in the city of milwaukee in a historic district. in fact, we're just above a very busy food market. i think i just counted bell number 466 going into the machine, which the election judge here says it's a very high turn out. and part of it is a 160 people registered to vote today. the same day that they cast their ballot, which is something that is permissible in the state of wisconsin. that is exactly

what our guests yoshi chan did today. usually you're 19 years old, you are an ard student. you just voted for the 1st time you even got applause. how does that feel? it felt really good, good. and also kind of shocking. i didn't expect to be a body for just making about, but it's really exciting. we were talking sort of about the issues and you count yourself as age moderate folder and these issues are really serious to you. what motivated you to come out and if you can share with us, we will see alternately, oh um, well i voted for commer because she's helping with taxes and helping just middle class families. and so i just have to support like my middle class. you know, both of the candidates were here in wisconsin over and over again trying to reach motors like yourself 1st time voters to get your vote was part of your vote also, as many voters have told us against donald trump or what you would be, or if he were to take i wouldn't necessarily say it's against donald trump,

it's more or people i know to help them, but i'm not like i didn't vote against you. so now you have, uh, you have come out here. you cast your vote, knowing that you are in the swing state where the whole world is watching to see how you guys decide, are you feeling optimistic? you'd have to vote for harris. do you think she may take this one away? i'm feeling pretty optimistic. i feel like she's my when you know, but yeah, overall optimistic towards my right. you are she thank you so much appreciate you. not only did he just catch his 1st of all, but he got to be on out to 0. and it's the 1st time to the interview. appreciate him so much. and the people working at this holy station, they will be here until o 3 g fully. that is when all of the holes in the state of wisconsin close. so we still have a few more hours ahead. and then of course, we will be waiting to see just when will start getting results, which could be getting some early returns just after

o 3 g back from this city of milwaukee, which is the largest urban center in wisconsin. we likely won't hear anything until after midnight. that is because of so many early votes that have to be counted by had that has been an ongoing process. so everyone wondering, just when we might, we might learn when these 10 and looked for votes from wisconsin, who they will be going to the very earliest maybe sometime after midnight today. but more likely, we will find out some time early tomorrow morning, if not in the afternoon. and again, this is a swing state that offers one of the shortest path to victory for either candidates fully heidi, thank you so much for the moment. heidi's real costs are lie for us that in milwaukee wisconscin, well 50 states and 315000000 people. there's no doubt that the 2024 election has been dpn certain except when we know the windows and who knows how long that's going to take. let's go back to seattle and i data wall. so 0. what is the most

plausible path to 270 for both paris and trump? yeah, i want to run our viewers through some of the most likely scenarios. there are plenty of scenarios we'll look at some of them. the ones we think make the most sense at this point in the evening. let's look at this. this is what we want us to focus on as the results come in the electoral college and each candidates path to $270.00. the number of electoral votes needed to win the white house. here's our starting point, okay, and always, by the way, keep an eye on that number as it changes. here's our starting point. 43 states in washington, dc, or either reliably blue or reliably red, right? that means couple of harris can already count on 225 of actual votes. donald trump on 219 right here. this is not totally guaranteed, of course is based on polling, but it's pretty likely on both sides. the election will be decided in the 7th swing states that we've been tell you about, which between them have $93.00 electoral votes. so heidi, for instance, was just talking from wisconsin a 2nd ago along by the way,

with this little yellow square here. the congressional district in nebraska will come back to that later. that's an interesting case. harris's easy is passed. the victory runs through the so called blue wall, that is pennsylvania. that is michigan. that's wisconsin. all 3 of them together. that's the blue water. turning these 3 states, red is what put donald trump in the white house 8 years ago, turning them back. the blue major button president. but because electoral votes have been redistributed since the last election reflecting population shifts in the states, those 3 states are actually no longer enough. so winning them puts harris at $26091.00 vote shy of victory. she would still need one more states to put her over the top. okay. now go to trump. trump's wrote the 270 starts withholding north carolina estate. he won last time by just one point. 3 points is very close. if trump holes, north carolina and wins the blue, well you see how it turned red came over,

he's up to 79. the when she's president. but when the blue will and louis north carolina, then he's a to $63.00 still 7 boats shorts. that is why holding north carolina, by the way, pulls open to north carolina and just under 2 hours. that is why it is so important for republicans. if trump does that, he could even lose the biggest swing state part of the blue wall, pennsylvania which carries 19 electoral votes, and then he would still make it to, to 70 by, by, by winning either arizona with 11 electoral votes or georgia with 60, you just one, right, amazon or georgia, not both. now let's go back to that earlier paris scenario and this is where he gets really interesting, as she holds the blue wall and from takes the other 4 swing states. so blue for harris. trump takes the other 4 in the west and themselves that would leave harris look at the numbers at 269. trump after 68, it doesn't get much closer than that. and that brings us back to nebraska. it is

one of the just 2 states main being the other that splits its electro vote according to who wins each of the states congressional districts, 3 congressional districts, right. stay with us. since 1992 nebraska to as it is formerly known and has gone against the race, the rest of the state twice giving one electro vote to brock obama that within 2008 went to jo button in 2020. in that scenario. if harris held onto that boat, which is basically the city of omaha, that's what we're talking about here. she'd be president. but if trump wins it, then they're tied a $269.00 each. if that happens, it's the us house of representatives which chooses the next president with each state getting one vote. and that has not happened since 1825, nearly 200 years ago. but how are we going to know what state is going to who well, on election day, thousands of boat count reporters from the associated press found out the precincts and counties across america. and the data that they collect allows a p to coal races. the news agency has been doing this for nearly 2 centuries,

and alpha 0 takes its data from the associated press. so earlier i spoke to david scott, vice president of the ip headed their new strategy and operations. she explained exactly how that process works. well, essentially what we're doing is we're accounting about the american system of democracy. there's no federal election commission or overall national agency to tally up all of the votes across the country and say, who ultimately has the most. it's uh, sort of a court of our constitution that doesn't exist the authority for elections delegated by the framers and the constitution out to all the states. and so in the mid 18, hundreds and 1848, literally 2 years after the ac was founded, we decided that's a new story. we need to cover that. and so we have since then been counting the votes on election. we go out to all of the county and town and city election officers, f, those local jurisdictions, we get the results of the votes as they are accounted there. and we add those up

interest totals for statewide races and then ultimately a national election. and we send that out to our customers and to our audiences around the world. so americans and really the world to know, and it's close to real time as possible, who the american voter has picked to lead them next for president and the congress . and then all the way down the ballad to state legislatures. so that is how the races get cool. we told you it's a pretty unique system. there's no real equivalent in the world anyway, that'll start in a couple hours and you saw the scenarios fully. so some of those scenarios that we laid out, or the plausible ones that last one where it gets decided by the us house. that's not so plausible, but it could have, it could happen. i mean, we all remember the hanging chat back in friday night and anything can happen. thank you very much sale for that. well, let's now hear from james davis, republican strategist in arshad hassan, democratic strategists who are joining us on this election night on. ouch is here. we've talked a lot about a lot of things,

but i just wanted to start off with the timing the time when we can expect these results is coming. of course it used to be that by midnight the major us networks would be able to call the election right. are shot. when do you think it's going to be this summer? ok. what largely because of pennsylvania. it meet 6 days. we mistake that's on if it's going to be a whole week if you want to republican legislatures and a number of the swing states pass laws restricting when we could start counting many of these early votes. so in pennsylvania these both can't be counted even now . yeah, they'd be already balanced, they only started counting them this morning. that's right, that's great this morning. so, and with such a huge early vote, it's going to take time as you've covered already, these votes have to be manually tabulated. so because of the laws that these legislatures have passed, we will take more time. but the most important thing is that we count every vote. right? so we can wait. james, if we get into that area where we're still waiting

a day or 2, this is when we could get into legal to a territory and it could complicate things, couldn't it? yes, it could. and you know, it's also just the expectation of the american people. we are, we live in an immediate culture where we're used to ordering over, eats and getting our food delivered to us really quickly. and that's, you know, it's just not, it's not part of our culture to wait on something and a lot of americans won't understand. so it's a duty for us all of us. republicans, democrats and media to explain the process because it's better to get it right then to get it fast. let's be deliberate. let's make sure that every boat is counted. our, our shots vote to count on my boat to count anyone who is legally registered to vote and cast their vote there. but how it should count. that's a basic principle that americans should be able to say, yes, i trust this process. and i hope that we can show that the selection. alright. speaking of getting it right. i want to talk to you guys about the polls. okay. the

polls in 20162020, didn't quite get it right. i mean, they underestimated donald trump. this time, the polls extremely close again, especially in those crucial swing states. do you think the polls have it right this time? there is always a level of uncertainty with even the most accurate poles. and normally that wouldn't matter if the election weren't very close. you can learn a lot, but you wouldn't have to try and predict the outcome, which i caution us against trying to predict based on a poll here or a poll there. or even in the aggregation pulse. all polls have to make certain assumptions about who is going to turn out when we're talk thing about poles underestimating front vote. the voters that was because pulls under estimated a certain group of white men without college educations who turned out at a higher rate than we thought. yeah, now the same thing happened in 2012 when republican available is the less likely to respond to posts is on the day that may be true. again, we're not certain about a lot of this, so we're making assumptions. right. all right, james,

on the polls getting it wrong, the last time around. what, why do you think that was and do you think good. they've actually gotten the game right this time? well, you know, i think that largely they under counted, you know, trump of demographics that would show up and uh, you know, in 2016 and then they tried to readjust. and then there was, you know, a lot of shuffling in the 2020 election just because of covert all the procedures, lot of mellon ballots and stuff. so it became much more difficult, i think, to predict in 2020. and so i think that you know, the challenge 420-1620. 20 look to different for the posters. a challenge and a 2024 is. how do you make the adjustments off of 20? 16. 20. 20. to adjust for 2024. so, you know, if the polls are right, one standard deviation in the polls could mean a landslide victory, right? for either candidate. okay. now, we don't know what's going to happen. obviously within the next few hours,

it might be sometime before we get some results, right? but already, even before that, donald trump is closing arguments was laying the groundwork for, you know, he was raising red flags and saying that they might be regularities, they might be cheating, and so on. how concerning is that to you? it's deeply concerned, right? donald trump is a candidate who the last time he lost, he and cited an insurrection and had a violent mar march on the capital. that is his track record. he has not once said that he would respect the results of the election. this isn't a recent thing, this is a pattern of behavior. and this pattern leads to a kind of the stabilization and it kind of lack of face and it are in something as important as our democracy tonight, his rhetoric around this is dangerous. all right, james, will he respect the results? is i don't have a choice. i have faith in the american people. i have faith in the process. you know, if he looses he will lose and he may not like losing,

but he will lose. that's the great thing about the american people that right how my, the support is reactive. he watches he's already like, pressing them. it was seem to to do something if he were not to when, don't know. i mean, i fix it, you know, awesome. that way we could see political violence from either side. we've already seen political violence and increase in political violence. this, this election cycle means that 2 assassination attempts and makes us look like, uh, you know, a fledgling new democracy. when in fact we have a little bit of history here. so these are, this is unprecedented times and i think we could all do better to have an air of stability to be able to say, hey, you know what, i respect that. you have a different point of view on this is what we're down to here. that our civility in tom's closing message, especially yesterday when he was talking about con, um nancy pelosi, the, i mean the how speaker from how speaker, i mean, why do you think it keeps even an, even when he's a staff tell him not to do it?

absolutely. and it keeps doing it, you know, and he gets away with it. he is. that is who? yes, i mean for, for better worst that is, that is who donald trump is. i don't think you're going to change, you know, a man of his age at this point. he's been that guy for all of those public life. and so what i can say is that he undermines himself quite a bit because as we saw on the, on, on the issues he leads on a number of issues. one of the issues that wasn't on the board is a top issue that i think many people are paying attention to is the issue of foreign wars and our engagement and the lack of leadership that we've seen from the dividing harris administration. that is also crippling 2 very important constituencies with in her base, you know. and so when you look at states like michigan with the arrow error of american population, you know they're unhappy. so either they show up for him because they said, hey, there was peace in the middle east. there was peace abroad whenever he was

president. or they just say, you know what? it's not important enough to show up. and they stay home where reliably they but they counted for her in the past. all right? how should i do want to caution against any equivocation on the role of the, of the, the violent rhetoric from it's not for both sides, right? the violent riley williams from one to 300 housing speech yesterday. she didn't even mention is they come to harris because she is running on, on joy hope optimism and a deep venture policy positions. donald trump is running on division. and again, you should have some healthy debate, you should have some healthy contrast, but don't, some has repeatedly made threats against sitting and former elected officials come on here says not let us not pretend that there's equivocation in political violence in this election cycle. j. c. one, i will not defend his comments, but it is hypocritical to sit here when even in his own broadcast, i've heard other democratic strategists use the word nazi. we've heard you know

about families of fascist, not see what the biggest part of the the reason why we tell you our staff cold calls in the fashion if they are the if he's the biggest threat to democracy, is it the next interpretation? oh, okay. well then maybe someone takes them out like no i'm, i am not like this. this is an escalation of rhetoric that has just been helpful to our civil society then. so that is voting. that's what we're doing. exactly. let's take it at the ballot box. what's, what's actually do that instead of escalating the ad hominem attacks against one another? i don't like it was another. i don't like it one republican so and i don't think it's fair spray conversation will continue it in just a few minutes. we're going to take a short break on knowledge as there are special coverage of the us selection 20. 24 will continue after this very short break and we'll be going live to all of our correspondents across the united states. and also looking at the rest of the bases with the highlighted stay with us on, i'll just hear the

shooting the doc chapter in the close of the war. they just took our id cards, mailed them. they asked him about his name, the killed, the prison, the scene of unspeakable horrors. so i saw a pile of bodies. we had a lot of questions about how these men come to be dead. echoes of the 2 brothers, i must have shut. those are coming soon enough, josie, to of the repair. it is sure visual and see us and he threw off without me. i wasn't here. i shot him dead. the controversial us know, stand your ground. you're saying that these laws actually encourage more violence, given your statements, the right to kim, we're sending the message that you can just do this. this is ok. i'm denying justice to victims. families,

lines investigate licensed you out to 0. to kid is the world 3rd largest producer of apples and apple juice accord, or if it's outputs comes from apple. orchard surrounding like yours is over use of fertilizer and agriculture. and animal waste have also caused ology to blue in the water, depriving it of oxygen, along with boiling water levels, that's worrying farmers. the biggest change is know of a country at the same, not to cheat as to key. it has a similar dropped program, which means, well, that can get any policy until a few years ago, children would slide down here into the lake. now it has become the evidence of the extent of the water loss in lake pay. is this, the surface of the lake may appear large, but its stuff has dropped from 18 meters to less than 6. but scientists say $186.00 of the countries, $240.00 lakes have dried up during the last 60 years and the rate of water loss is

accelerating as climate change or since around the world. the hello, i'm sort of hired us and we'll continue our special coverage of the selection in a moment. but 1st here's a look at the days. news from elsewhere is ready. prime minister benjamin netanyahu has sykes, his defense minister. you know, i've gone has been publicly critical of nothing. y'all who's management of the war on garza and cold for new goals. the prime minister's office isn't now so far and minnesota is raul counts will be replacing him who the fema over the past few months, corrected the period between me and the minister of defense, significant gaps in the management of the military camp.