and we have only 10 minutes to take our belongings and leave the office so they can shut it down for the victory for the government. get this one of those containing refugees coming the actions of israel's government. the military detention has been described as the closing of the policy you are paying late is made with the consequences of donald trump selection, dominating towards the war. and you find relations with russia. nice hosts and trade in tariff is on the screws me. so what might be in store for you with trump back in power. this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program until mccrae, you are paying late is gathered just as donald trump selection when unfolded. not to celebrate his victory, but to analyze its implications at the summit plans long before his when and well, trump is yet to state his policies, european leaders. and if it's about any big shift from the, by the administration on the crime war, relations with russia and nice. so the war has leads to militarization levels within you're not seen since world war 2 with phase of whitening into a full blown conflict between russia and the west. there's also damaged europe's economy. sanctions bending in ports of russian. oil and gas have caused energy costs to fluctuate the continents industrial powerhouse germany has been hit particularly hard. now in a 2nd here of recession, any new tribal within the white house administration would be coming at a particularly bad time to europe. so what will trumps for 10 main, for your of, and so nice. oh, in the world between russia and ukraine, we'll be talking to,

i'll get shortly. but 1st, this report from homes on my mom's indeed is me at the summit in diamond duty and copy to budapest in the week of the trumps election victory. central to discussions is what a trump presidency we mean for the continent on what i'm thinking it might bring. yeah, it did all this stuff. and i mean, i guess he was elected by the american people and he's going to defend the interests of the americans, and that's legitimate. and that's a good thing. the question is we ready to defend the interests of europeans. during his campaign, trump said he quit in the green war in a day, but never said how you can strongly back you cream, sending weapons and money to boast. that gets a defense against russia. but the divisions in europe too and gave him prime minister to open an ally of trump, passcode for a seas file where we are at this moment is that there is no communication.

and the 1st precondition of every piece is the communication. and the pick on the shut off communication is the ceasefire. ukraine vs. the trump might get somebody to support and strike a deal with russia. opinion polls so just more ukrainians to support books in the wall. but the prints lead is critical of open ceasefire calls. even when use they said, due to i think it's very dangerous rhetoric we understand which leaders implement and raise this rhetoric concerning the ceasefire with me. it's a very scary challenge for all our citizens or see me. us investor relations effectively collapses the wall. but put in safe, he's open to talked with trump stimulating you was maybe just not seeing is that i see the desire to restore relations with russia to help bring the ukrainian crisis to an end. i think that because it's attention at the very least, and i take this opportunity to congratulate trump on his election as president of

the united states of america in the past. trump, excuse me, 2 men, but i'm not spending enough. and their own defense underlines too much on the us, even 2nd, to pull out of deadlines. in one company speaking what he said, he would encourage russia to attack countries that don't pay that we need to produce emitted reliance on the us is now high onto european agenda. the missile combines i'm, it's overpaid with much to what is necessary for obviously keratin together as to europe. and the union is on as on european this will be particularly as successful if everyone makes the contribution. i put the us a new, i immediately lice, but they have fields of a wall on a different from trade. he's american foss platform. i'm protectionist policies mean equal in post studies from european impulse, as he did last time, that you will need to see dad rated to respond the so,

but with germany and other countries, we tend to can only keep by the ukraine, will none. we've been rushing the prospect of a trade button with the us hands and we're having to just see the points that story is bring in now. guess now, and this is philip show us a biography of letting me put in and a form, a foreign correspondent with the bbc in brussels as the co. com, professor of politics at the school of law and government at dublin city university . and then london is chris, we are the ceo of macro advisory, the strategic consultancy focused on russia and eurasia. thank you very much for being with us here on inside storage that a lot to get through. obviously, with trump being elected into, to take office on january the 20th. so if, if i can begin with you, i think given the unpredictability of terms of what we saw or, and as best to, as well as the threats he has made during his campaign. how nervous should you are paying latest be right now with looking to hit to the next 4 years. i think there

are 2 factors that they need to take into account. one that is here is politically, not very strong at the moment. if you look at the 2 main countries prompts and germany products, uh, as the background does not have a majority in parliament, which means he taught us to just ation. as a german government has just collapsed, this is not the greatest situation to, to meet the, the route to a very disruptive and radical press to the united states. so, that's, that's a problem of the other thing you mentioned to unpredictability. if anybody tells you at the moment that they know what trump is going to do the, then making it up. and the trump himself probably has not yet decided exactly what he's going to do to what you are, or even towards ukraine and russia. certainly he will try to do something to fulfill his campaign pages of ending the war with ukraine,

but how he's going to do it again. it's very much on the up in the a. so for the next few months, i think we've been consistent to yeah, i guess from what we, we know from what you said and how he's active in the past. that it will no doubt the american 1st and foremost and that will uh, from the basis of most of the decisions that he makes the given the political and economic for julia to the philip was talking about there. that seems to be spreading across europe, especially in germany, and as well as france. i mean is terms when basically coming at the worst possible time for europe. yes, it is. um, you know, not least because europe is, is that more because of the russian evasion of ukraine. europe is, is not through nicest. we have a european union, but despite the name itself of industry stations certainly doesn't act as a, as a major geo political actor. and it's not secure, we simply because for many years the member states haven't really invested in

defense. that's why we have that dependence on the us security umbrella, which is of course, institutionalized in nature. and for some time in european election, there's being a buckle for the soul of europe. if i can tell it's asked between 2 very different visions. you, you could say that either you are of interest rates have become stronger and becomes a doctor and its own rice board fragments. and we've already seen what that could lead to indicate that breaks it. but we have other players, we didn't do your opinions pointers with an in liberal nationalization squire. many trunks you might say in europe, so they are going to be very emboldened. i mean, victor or don yesterday in budapest was like a counselor who's just cutting scream. i mean, he was more or less able to say, look, i told you so my vision isn't sent and your vision, uh, you know, a, your opinion based on liberal values is in decline. he certainly made that point very strongly yesterday. look like his gamble over the last few years is paid off

with trump winning the white house. chris is your prepaid for the potential economic store when it comes to trade in tariffs that, that trump could bring over the next 4 years. and if not, why not? and what does it need to do to prepare itself as well? i think as the previous 2 speakers have said, so i've notice uh, the europe is not in a good position economically or in terms of political unity of. so if his challenge by a more assertive us and the more aggressive us presidential policy, then it's not in the good, you know, position to, to defend itself are to come up with, you know, responses. so, you know, i, i, it is certainly expect is that said donald, trump will focus a great deal on trade on the economy. lee, we have to remember that, you know, he won the election on domestic issues, not on foreign policy, but on domestic issues. he has promised people that he will improve the economy. he's promised people that are jobs. he is promised people to, he will, you know,

stop the import of cheap goods that are taking away american jobs. so i'd trade baffles trade war about the if it's too much, we could certainly say it'd be a lot more aggressive which to be china. we had that before. and then of course it is something that's it by the ministration has been dealing with as well. so from, well, 1st of all, go after china in terms of terrace and to try to, to read that and see like trade with china. but there will be implications for europe as well. and i think it certainly will be up to the european leadership. how would that proceeds, how they engage initially with trump, if they, if they, for like, put the barriers up themselves and, you know, wanted to defend europe and not to engage them. they'll think it'll be tough. but if there's more engagements, then yeah, perhaps we might see it easier in terms of because usually with us relative to us in china, which we expect to be very tough. obviously a lot of it will depend on how united europe can remain. so that we heard,

and many of them, a chrome of the french president to say, trump is going to defend the interest of americans. the question is we ready to defend the interest of europeans. i mean, your opinions, it is that they reduce it through this and, and how do i actually go about trying to do that and, and stay united when, as we've seen, it is particularly fractured at this point in time. it's a wonderful question. i wish i had an answer. i wish any of the european leaders have an onset because i don't think they really do. i can see them doing 2 things. i'm beginning to see this already. the list of when trump was elected and he announced that his victory there was a kind of a seemly race among european leaders who could be the 1st to congratulate you. i think my call got caught in a few minutes before kissed amr in bread, but that i think is symptomatic of the way they are going to try to

establish personal relations with with trump. georgie maloney in italy already has quite a good relationship with him. that is a way that individual european leaders may see of trying to kind of smooth things over and make it a less contentious relationship. it may be a wish and the prayer because trump is pretty practical about these things of personal relationships don't matter that much to him. the other thing i think you do, you were talking just, just not we've been talking about tires and trade war is to trump hayes. the trade surplus is a trade deficits for american surfaces for other countries. so the cost china is, is the big target for that, but you're also, so i think we may well see moves to try to offer a strong trunk street suite to those on the trade front to stop the relationship,

to try relationship, getting completely out of order just thing on, on the, on the trade issue and, and tear up some in trumpet. tariffs on 25 percent on steel. 10 percent on a ellamin human 20 i came when he was last prison then. so this is a real possibility that he could do something like this as to europeans, probably not as bad as bodies threatening against china as we know. but okay, where do you see this, this pulling in and do you think it's a real threat or is it you just going to use this as, as a, as a threat to try and get what he wants. i think you'll find using his leverage to get a walk from his perspective is a better deal from america because as you said, he feels that the current situation is to america's disadvantage. but you have to remember that donald trump, if we look at his 1st presidency, he did promise a lot of things that he didn't deliver. i mean, where's of all that was going to be built between the united states and mexico and that mexico was going to pay for. so tar and some might be in the category that's kind of one of those headline policies. that sounds revolutionary and big and

confrontational, what may not actually transpire for the simple reason that it's a bit like nuclear deterrence? i mean, there's a lot of countries with nuclear weapons. why don't they actually press the button? because they know they press the button, they don't cover the 1st strike capability to not going to knock out their opponents. their phones are going to come back and knock them as well. it's the same which are, you can impose terence. um, uh you know, other regimes of their countries, but they have also have the ability to hit you with tabs as well. and that leads to a race to the bottom which is really and nobody's interest. so i wouldn't be overly worried right now. and as being said already, you may not have decided himself on the soccer coach that he's going to take it. chris would fit some economists of warning a profound economic losses for europe. but i mean, the potentially, the a u g d p could full by half a percentage points in costume and really a germany alone, a 190000000000 dollars over the 4 years of a trump presidency. i mean is, is that being overly dramatic at this point in time? absolutely. you really traumatic, i think, is a good way to,

to describe it to terry. there will be tough talking, which we all agreed on. but also remember i don't shop is going to be very preoccupied at home. you know, he has of course, the whole legacy of legal cases to deal with. he has made some very aggressive and a very strong commitments and promises to the american electorate to do with immigration to get rid of illegal immigrants on the course to do with the economy. so, you know, he's only got 4 years and the reality, he probably only has 3. i don't to deal with all of that to that. and therefore, you know that he's the ability to, to do everything that he has said, you know, of course, it's just simply not, it's not fair. it's not going to happen. i think he will look for a couple of, you know, strong victories on the international stage. and here of course we're talking primarily i guess about ukraine, russia and, and israel a gaza. but really, his ability and this the time to, you know,

to do with other issues when he really has to focus on his domestic agenda. then i really do think that so you know, any, any extrapolation of what he said into, you know, really damaging economics or trays is, is overly dramatic. so, no, i, i don't expect that to happen in that way. you know? yes and, and what he says doesn't necessarily mean what he will actually do or what he will be able to do as restoring his 1st 4 years. yes. if philip, if we can move on to the border, new crime, because obviously that is one of the major issues that has been dominating over the last few years when it comes to europe in the rushing us relationship. i mean trumps if he could ins the, the, the war and in a day without giving any detail as to how he would actually go about doing that. i mean, obviously it's going to take longer than that, but it still stands that he wants to see. and into it in some way, shape or form. how do you see this trying out with trump is president?

i think that's one of the few sit into the to me there are 2 sentences about the trunk. a trunk coming back to about one is he will try to do something about ukraine. the other is the european, as i said, they going to have to try and raise the defense spending. because the american defense umbrella is going to look more or more kind of fragile and tacit. i think those 2 things we can reckon on, but on ukraine, yes, you've tried it, but the problem is will zalinski agree and even more. so we'll put to agree to start some kind of negotiation because it includes his mind. the russians are doing rather well. you know, there is you come ukraine fatigue setting in, in europe assessing him on public opinion or to a greater extent perhaps send them on some of the governments. but the indefinite support of ukraine i think, is becoming more more of

a mirror. and in those circumstances, if you're approved here, um, when you say, well okay, i'll settle for less than i really want a that's good to be in difficulty. he to the trump and police and was certainly told where the person will get in the easily degrees. i guess fusions is another issue. the 2nd thing about ukraine is what will come from trying to do? will he withdraw support from ukraine or as my own power, who's probably going to be his defense secretary? i suggested put more pressure on the rush on the threatening to increase support in order to bring courage into the negotiating table. i mean, these are very onset and all one can be sure of is that there won't be an attempt of some kind to bring about a piece of negotiated settlement. oh, well one thing we do know though is within the united states,

more more politicians, especially republicans, a growing just interested in giving billions of dollars and military i to you crying don't. okay. i mean, is this zalinski is worst case scenario now that the trump back empower and a republican senate and seems silly for publicans taking control of the house. so they'll just cut off all financial and military aids to your try. and it's certainly the outcome that a lot of years it has to be just the ones, despite is a very kind of a cooperative tweaks yesterday saying that he's an excellent conversation with donald trump. it was very difficult to get the last package of $60000000000.00 over the congressional line is going to be, i think, not impossible. now because trump is made clear, i think if you can detect a plan that he'd like to freeze the conflict more, that's where it is. and i think when he says he'll have a phone call. busy all which savanski and boots and he'll be more or less communicating to the landscape that they will receive no aid. now, that of course, assumes fast as it lensky will then recommend to reach people to stop fighting.

there's no guarantee there, and of course booting doesn't seem to, in that sense. trump is as long as the same page has a student that doesn't, gave a lot of agent speak. ukrainian, who sees it as a, as a palm and a much bigger geopolitical chess game. you must remember that the 1st conversation that donald trump had with zalinski back in 2019, when savanski became president, was essentially just shaking down where he more to stein gold. $400000000.00 of congressional ab checked me to prove over as an excuse had been said, i won't give it to. ready unless you take up some dirt on the bike and finally, so that was a very, you know, start as, as, as be noted elsewhere. i mean, he has a very transaction view of relationships. so there's no, there's no motions there. his view is that this is very much a european conflict, it shouldn't be america's responsibility to defend it or get involved. so he's going to try and from his perspective disengage. and that means i think it very disadvantageous situation for your train. yeah, it, chris, obviously we, we know that to trump ones,

european nations to up the defense spending the night. so it can, i find the money, especially in the economic times that many of these countries find themselves in as well. but with great difficulty is absolutely right. because as you say, across the board and most european countries, uh, there are, you know, severe uh, social issues, housing issues, funding of social services, health care, education, etc. and then pretty much all the countries in europe are, are dealing with that are some variation on it. so it would be extremely difficult for governments to say, well, we're going to, you know, effectively take money away from other, other areas of spending kind of more domestic areas in order to build up the ministry. and that's the sustain sustained the war. so with great difficulty, i think, is the answer to that if they had to, because of i get as a condition for nation staying and taxed and i think governments will and then they will have the will have to do it because nature is important for europe this self

kind of defense element over the article 5 involving us. that is very, very important that i think that would override perhaps other considerations. but it certainly would be very difficult and in all your team countries, as we can see at this stage. like can i just make one point? uh, like we talked about it and see what's true and they do one kind of one of these statements that i know he's made. of course, lots and lots of statements, sometimes contradictory, but one of these statements does very regularly gets repeated in moscow by officials, which is the statement he said about how he was star to process a piece, which is the 2nd effectively cars and stick. he sites that he would say to presidents and lensky. you have to start talking are really what we would draw support. but if you do start talking, then we'd love to rebuild. but he also said he would say, at the same time to present puking, you have to start talking are we will allow ukraine have better be silos and longer

arrangements those. and if you do start talking, then we start to a sanction. so again, as doug could say, it's the, it's this kind of d making aspect of trunks that we've become used to, but that's what moscow expects a terry would. it's something that they would not be opposed to, which is freezing the lines where they are right now. that would allow the president putin this entity to say, to tweak the russia has extended its area of defense workers. but they are expecting this kind of carrot and stick force. do you making your approach to emerge from trump that at that time with the angle they were there, their 2nd expecting. okay, the phillips, you've written a very well over guided by over, failed, letting me oppose. and so you probably know him best of all of us and how he would react to both the carrot and the stick. how do you think that would play out and, and can you just give us a bit of an insight into his relationship with donald trump? and how he will deal with him when it comes to the next 4 years. i think chris is

absolutely right, it is characteristic. so the question is whether the trump will be able to convince, pushing that it is in russia's interest to, to, to, to uh, negotiate and agree some kind of peace settlement, but at least to cease fire or freezing up the conflict of my understanding. my view of the relationship between content and pretend is potent does not have very much respect for trump. and he will try to flash a trial and people try to bring him out. but above all, he will try and get more and more from him. he'll try and play in like a federal and he's quite good of that kind of thing. the trunk boots in a very early on when he was in the k g b and despite himself, as as, as

a specialist in human relations. and i think that is to some extent, one of the things that he showed me during his presidency, he is quite good at manipulating those who deal. he deals with. and trump, in particular i, there's a, a real risk. he will pull the threads a try and get more and more advantages try and get trump to put more and more pressure on savanski so that he get so much better deal than from initially when they've had in mind. and that has been one of the major criticisms of donald trump, especially by democrats, that he is basically in the pocket of pollution when it comes to europe. the if we can just finish up, we've talked about all the problems that are facing europe and, and what to the next 4 years could look like with a trump presidency. i mean, are there any silver linings though? uh. fit for your opinions. there is one potential silver lining, and i think my tron captured it yesterday when he said that look in terms of geo

politics. the word was divided into herbivores and tanya boys. those what leads you to the vegetables? and those mentioned to me you're busy is, is a her before and each risk being devoured by carney. ready unless it upsets game because of the ambiguities of, of trumps position the fact that he likes nobody take anything for granted, including the security guarantee to europe. there was a challenge now to europe to, to come together and become the players in their own rice and, and to night as my concept in their own interest. the problem is, is that, of course, this is your problem for, for ages. is that your business united internally, the french government of course, is, is very weak. the german government is just collapsed. you have the far rice and the populist, you know, nipping up the hills at election time. so you are because you have to united has great potential, but despite the name european union, we're not quite there yet. but who knows? i mean, you know this, this, this on certainty in the world. maybe,

maybe the moment that you're actually does come together because it's the only way you can divide by thinking the words that mean different today is this under the publish prime minister said that they need to finally grow up and believe in, in its own streams. and hopefully help the jobs europeans doing more collectively for the defense and building a strong good european tele, especially when it comes to nice to have chris. finally, i mean can europe transform itself into accountable? so it was not the valid i hope so as a european, i absolutely hope that i owe those, these kind of global defense in the us and elsewhere will force europe to get its act together to become more more court date is just to, to, to one day wake up and realize that the european concepts is as powerful there can be as powerful as, as the us are, are china and act accordingly. the last couple of years you are the leaders. i've spent every day looking over the atlantic of what's happening in the us and who's

going to be next present of what of me for them, for goodness sake. they should be, you know, much more self confidence about, you know, we will deal with whatever happens. we need to focus on ourselves and be more coordination and make your a lot more united. and i really hope that events like the, the, the, the return of donald trump puts pressure for that to happen for it for finally to start moving forward. and that have your stuff all is looking over the atlantic and what it should be saying and doing well the 1st time just say yeah, if it can indeed do that. thank you all 3 of you for joining us here on inside story. we really appreciate your time and your inside. well, thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. that's l g 0, adult. com. and so for the discussion, good about facebook page. that's facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. a handle is at a inside story. that may tell mccrae and the whole team here, bye for now,

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