a service collateral damage has collateral damage. that's what acts reality is leading to what we're seeing that will allow me to push back for a moment is the corporate is real effective. it's more of a standing from the impact to the us selections, the escalating conflict in the middle east of the urgency of climate action upfront sets the stage for serious debate on out jersey or the put is tom's. come back means for east asia. he's not china as his i me is this. we certainly haven't tablets on his input as an a g o to literally tens positive loadable trump. she tossed washington children commitments to its allies. this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm elizabeth put on the walls to biggest economy the us in china are on a collision course. donald trump has promised to impose high tablets on chinese import once he's back in the white house, threatening to destabilize markets across asia. it could perhaps also open new ones, bosh at what cost comes to america. first policies. so raising security concerns will the us stand by? it's well to defend taiwan sovereignty. and then there's north korea, ken this fortune closer ties of putin and testing bigger and more advanced missiles and the neighbors are getting nervous. so how will tom's policies affect asian markets and with long health allies be left out in the cold? we'll explore all these issues with, i guess in a moment, but 1st this report by katia lopez who they are the imposing tariffs on chinese products as high as 60 percent is the threat donald trump repeated throughout his

campaign. and i'm doing the same thing with china. we're going to tear of the hell out of china was charged by me. hundreds of billions of dollars. i'm going to put a 10200 to 1000 percent. if they're not gonna sell one car into the united states, because we're not going to destroy our country. the threat is forcing china along with other foreign countries and companies to look at options outside the us. but trade between the us and china has searched in recent decades and is crucial for both economists. warren high tariffs could backfire globally. i believe that from the threat of 60 percent terrace will likely happen, as far as china's exports are concerned. by far, the largest market is us and europe, and so they don't necessarily want to fight a 2 front war. chang is bracing for what could be a new phase with washington acquiring new the diesel and th,

regarding trump's proposed terrace on china. we will not delve into a hypothetical boss as a matter of principle. i would like to reiterate this. no one will win a trade in case you to meet in north korea. the big question is whether trump will try to resume diplomacy with leader king. don't own your own young has been building closer ties with russian president vladimir putin and a recently launched is most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile. yet for neighboring south korea. support from the us is crucial from that when you get to, i believe that the so called tri lateral corporation between south korea, the united states and japan will proceed well during the following. trump presidency to trumps foreign policy has often included mixed messages. now, much of the asia is trying to prepare as best it can for any scenario. castillo, pennsylvania, which is 0 for inside story. the

well let spring, and i guess engaging on it hanging is a senior fellow at the ty, her institute in washington, d. c. c. them kind of as a china correspondence for political and then single pulled. graham on web is an ad young fellow at the s dodge about them, school of international studies, a very warm welcome to inside story. and i'll start with you engaging. how is china preparing itself for full years of a trump presidency? well, the preparations go back much further than that. they were ambivalent about who was going to be elected. either one was to pass through the exact same class. so at this juncture, they have been pursuing this dual circulation strategy, which stresses internal consumption as a way of attracting them for an investment and growing their economy. not only in terms of trading and things like this,

but also in terms of innovation. they really see their opportunity to climb the ranks in terms of technology, say them china has on via new measures aimed at boosting it's flagging economy, some of which i know has mentioned, but how much do you think trump victory henders? she has plans to transform the country into this technology powerhouse is going to be a real handicapped. uh, you know, the, the, the trump team is made clear. donald trump has made clear that terrace against china are foundational to his brand foundational to this mag movement. and he's uh, threatening the terrace of up to 60 percent on across the board on chinese and board. so that's really going to uh to crim, which is a real big part of china's economic engine. i think the big question is, to what extent has china had the last 4 years to prepare for this in terms of

counter measures? and the 1st that i, the 1st countermeasure of course, is what we're probably going to see. a fair bit of tit for tat gutierrez reprisals from badging. but also the extent to which paging is going to be reaching out to us allies and partners to see if they can split off these hours and partners in terms of like trade sweeteners and better trade with those folks to mitigate or to soften the blow of us terrace and graham certainly we've seen reports, chinese policy makers have been preparing for a trump victory at least 4 months. the trying to lessen the exposure to the us increased trade with global south countries. just in september, she announced china would introduce evasion of 0 tariff for developing countries that have diplomatic relations with badging. but how much can trade with other countries may comp for the impact of a trade war field? i'm saying a trade was very much in the making make up for the impact of a trade war with the wills, largest economy. well, you know,

the statement about 0 restrictions is something i think the countries here, the southeast asia to which, you know, comprises 10 percent of the last population, se agent now to those within the asia pacific. really taking any chances of, you know, because of the fact that you know, what time of the last few years, at least we have seen increasing footprint. the chinese companies, tardies trade and chinese investments coming into the future. and i think we're producing ourselves for the worst possible scenarios where the terrace of law, 20 percent across the board, which well think attention to maybe going to be slight wear suit only the come country is that the ring. uh, it's a significant amount of investments. we're talking about are going to be in the process of the time and destruction, and that's a whole southeast asian countries economies you uh, finding, finding ways to, you know, build up is gus girl, that models as a truck with, you know, that's

a reliance that has some china on the one hand and the us going forward. so looking more in would be within the southeast asia, perhaps asia pacific at large extruding target. i know how concerning will that be full china, that other countries across the region will be looking to diversify from chinese investments so that they're not facing a secondary terrace. and although you've spoken about the measures that china has, has taken to, i suppose trump proof it's economy with the chinese economy in the states that it's in kind of afford another trade for to well, your, your supposing that china is on the brink of a disaster i think if you came here, you'd understand that that's just not the case. there is a significant pain that's been felt the china is handling of the real estate. for instance, they want to bring down housing prices so that you can't let the real estate industry go hog wild. so they're doing what is necessary to control their economy

and put in place what they intend to do. and remember, the difference between china and most of the rest of the world is a china plans long term. these are not policies that cook up in the, in an instant on the campaign trail. these are things that are carefully vetted, sent up and down the chain, so i can assure you, china is repaired for the pain that's coming. but they've been doing this for a long time. they've diversified away their number when trade partner is not the us for your business. now i'll see on. they understand that countries will go forward in their own best interest and try to get in between these giants. but remember, china is the manufacturer of is equal to the next 5 countries combined. so, you know, you have to put that into perspective. donald trump is not gonna be able to move industries and supply chains to us. and his plan to use tariffs on one hand and a didn't value the dollar are going to have significant consequences across the

board. not only to uh, the academic economy of the world. remember, he's putting tariffs on everyone else as well, but also to the financial system where the dollar is the pre eminent trade transaction number. so, you know, trump has close ties with the business community, including many fortune $500.00 companies. like tesla we've seen has growing relationship with it on mosque. also companies like apple, which have long term investments. and china do think that this could prompt trump to re thing cars approach to china or you know, i think that's, that's the trillion dollar question. you know, we saw the tech community, silicon valley really flocked to support trump in this campaign. of course, you must be in the standard bearer for that. so, you know, trump needs to, or will be needing trying to balance this i, it,

his promises of inflicting economic pain on china to benefit the supposedly could benefit the u. s. consumers through terrorist and through restrictions on across the us investment in china with this very close same ship that he's developed with the why moscow, as you mentioned, as you know, massive investments in china through, through tesla. we just don't know how this is going to play out. there's a real tension there. and so i think this is clearly a big part of what the trump transition team is discussing in terms of how they make that balance. so right now we really just don't know if there is so many questions that graham i want to. i was still talking about trade. i want to also talk about security in the asian region. do we know one of the big questions remains? do we know electronics policy on taiwan will be because he has really been all over

the place with taiwan, hasn't he? and his 1st time he increased alms sales alms transfers to taiwan. he lifted restrictions on contacts between america and, and time when these officials. but then recently he said that he called into question the us continued support for taiwan, accusing it of stealing america semi conduct to industry. he even suggested that taiwan should pay for us protection. and then last month he said that if china was to impose a blockade on taiwan, then he would increase terrace on china to a 150 to 200 percent. and so, given all the things he said about taiwan, do we have an idea of where he stands? it wasn't once again, so we'll have to see has to be until the 1st go to 2 to 3, fives. the 1st part of your thoughts on it is all, you know, the, for the 7th us presidency to see how strong really, what kind of wall makes you know. and in contrast to the,

the policy statement. so the vision that tom has section on see it over the costs. it's kind of too. but i think that come down to, with just the view from, you know, and it's an expos here within these at least as dot com and not want to, to be in a position or to see that needs to be the best known weakness. so come down to me, i think she really do expect the us to come to the side of the taiwan with god. it is china to initiate. so some of these it's, i wonder why the taiwan crosses the red line or red lines that, that the initiates offset the cost of the fees. and so that full sense, i'm a business sense. i'm in the region here right now with quite, quite, quite some the, because companies are worried about the impact of the potential conflict that goes out of control on both supply chains and massive trade routes that we see is costing across the asia pacific. so i think of, we are not taking any chances of cost, you know, it's

a high get back to then probably to, to maybe significantly lower because no one wants to see to see this conflict manifesto for the chinese that not to all the americans. but uh, you know, you know, how split repressions can spin out of control if uh, you know who the disabled rattling is all kept, kept the job. and the time is that let me bring in. so that'd be great. okay, let me run ida and because i can see that he can, he's not disagreeing with some of what you're saying. even though graham is saying, i know that no one wants the situation between china and taiwan to escalate, including china. we a not sure what with donald trump stands. but what about the republican national convention, which for the 1st time since 1980? i did not mention taiwan and it's potty platform. okay, i think i do. i'll do difference to my colleagues. i think they're misreading the situation. amazing is very happy to hear that trump's reactions or anything which is not military. it would be economic that signals that the us is not going to try

to push the envelope and create an a military situation. it's also made a very clear in the past that he expects any country that enjoys us protection to pay for it. so he's going to be putting a lot of pressure on taiwan and part of that pressure is going to be saying to them . if you want our projection, they're going to have to put ship factors in the united states. so i think it's very clear what the trump is going to do. and this is actually going to de escalate the situation there. china has no interest in doing a forceful take over of taiwan. taiwan is there, it's not going anywhere. the issue is, was the us going to try to push it into some sort of proxy situation. and obviously donald trump is signaling that is not going to happen. okay, feeling do you think that i want you to be bracing itself for the same kind of pressure to boost its spending on defense? the trump has been demanding the nation and member countries. for example, a yeah,

i, i would say, i think the short answer is i think, i think taiwan does have a, a trump problem here. and the language that we've heard that you mentioned in terms of the trump accusing taiwanda, stealing the semiconductor industry, needing to pay for its defense and even questioning whether it be feasible to defend taiwan. in the case of across street conflict, this is classic trump sort of transactional positioning. and when you speak to, uh, you know, former trump national security folks, they say look, when trump thinks about and talks about taiwan and trade, he sees read gets it. but when he, when you explained to him only when he thinks about the geostrategic value, that it hits it from a different lens. so i think what we're getting, what we're seeing is, is positioning where trump is going to be basically saying that i want you guys need to buy more weapons. that's what it's gotta, you gotta do more for us. and you know, tie one already buys billions of dollars and us weaponry. of course, the big problem is a lot of it is getting there and i'm much delayed schedule because us can keep up

with the demand. but i think that, you know, this is, this is classic sort of transit trend transaction. busy we talk on the, on behalf of the trump and it doesn't suggest and there is going to be in a band and meant of taiwan. but taiwan is going to have to pay. okay. and taiwan is the only country is not the only country that donald trump has said in asia should be paying for us protection. how worried graham should south korea be given the kinds of things that donald trump has said? he's cool. south korea, a money machine said that they would have to pay $10000000000.00 to host us troops in the country as well. you know, i think the cost of more upon the countries that of us, of those, particularly with defense, trudy's standing defense treaties. uh, do you all are worried that they will have to, for, for the logic portion of the bill, you know, to, you know, pay to play in that security arrangement. so i think what's happening is, what's going to happen is that is the problem does execute what he says he's,

he's going to do, which is to how tom does step up. and, and, you know, do the more share, and i think the are the that will happen. well, the screen on the national, the economy is all of the country, some questions or we might see a feeling towards a more independent and security policy in the part of south curio. and presumably, japan, particularly under the kind of restriction as to what the administration to the last level question. but it's a matter of the fact the method is that there is a higher likelihood that these countries be the one we saw on stomachs. but see, that's a good thing for the region. so i don't see that tom sites as well. i know the dynamics on the korean peninsula very different since the last time donald trump was president, we had the talks between kim and trump and without any deal. and we've seen advancements in north korea's nuclear and ms. solid program since then. and this year can brook would decades of policy towards south korea classifying it as

a permanent enemy. do you think that donald trump wants to re engage with can or? well, he might want to re engage, but i don't think him wants to re engage with him. he felt he was embarrassed and humiliated by trump. so he's also somebody who's a strong man and he's not gonna take that. yeah, very easily. but i think there's a mis reading here when he announced that he just south korea's enemy and he has no intention of re, re, re you in a fine with it. that's actually a, you know, a push towards piece because that was one of the major impediments. this idea that north korea was insisting that the courteous would have to unite. and it would have to be under down by pushing that aside. in theory, the p socks and border issues going to be sold and then he can normalize this country and pass it onto his future children, which seems to be his desire, especially. it's been as he's been bringing his daughter to work on a fairly regular basis. so at this point, the real issue is he's,

he now feels he has an alternate to china with russia. he sent 10000 troops to ukraine. he's trying to signal that he is a player that he cannot be ignored and that at some point or other, the countries that have to deal with them as he wants to trade this new north korean normalized country freedom. do you agree with? i know that trump might want to be engaged with kim, but that tim doesn't want to re engage with the us. it's true that he, tim has had a good role in relationship, was letting the uprooted in the last year. but that recognition from china and russia kind of replace a broad, the international recognition relief from sanctions that north korea stuff is from . so i think that the, what we really need to understand here is that the situation on the korean peninsula is fundamentally different from was when trump was in power for 2016 to 2020. yeah, you know, the problems or the d p r k,

the north korea problem is now inextricably linked to the problems in ukraine. we've had the dispatcher, thousands of north korean troops to the russian front against ukraine. so you know, trump's national security team need to be puzzling over to what extent do they need to be factoring in a much more bellicose, much more aggressive, much more threatening north korea. not just threatening the us as long time ally and partner south korea, but threatening europe's interest. uh, these are the ukraine. so i, i said, and again, we don't know exactly how that's going to boil it, how it's going to come out in terms of how trump and his national security team are going to interpret this and try to take action against it. but i think the thing is, is that this is tara and over this is very different from the last trump administration in terms of the problems with the north korean regime. and we've got to see or have some sort of clear signal as to how they're going to handle this.

but it's much messier and much more difficult and is no longer amenable to a possible personality to personality. strong man to strong man accord that those days seem to be over. yeah. and the last time we sold that personalities to personalities, strong man to strong man, according to an actually result in anything. i know i could see that the you weren't agreeing with freedom. the as well, it might not amount to anything, but uh, this is still the way that donald trump defers the see things. i mean, he's still the, a young teenager who was going over from, you know, a new jersey into manhattan in a limousine trying to join the, the in crowd there. and he very much values this idea that he's on the same par with the poor. and she and these people, he wants to be affected. they wants to be recognized, especially now that he has a mandate from the american people. he expects it and i think very much he's going

to be pushing this personality politics at the same time as he's trying is his best to get his way and make maga, the, the state of affairs for united states. and of course, i much depends on what the rest of the personalities in this cabinet gray. and as we wait to hear about the makeup of the cabinet, just how much of the us policy towards its friends. and so in asia depends on who fills those positions, do you think or well, it'd be meant to say a bit, but i think come down to it. um, what most leaders in southeast asia i'm looking to is whether or not it's a republican, dominated us government or democratic, dominate the us government, the cetera. doesn't quite matter what's what methods the end of the day would be the degree to which did us. but can use to maintain and to grow it in each month. we solve easier just to save them use of the asia pacific. so we also looking for

that for that, for that shift or status quote, you will end up working level of to engage with various facets of the government. you know, i bought the car is on the, i bought degree to have closer relationships. i mean, the single government in particular, apartment and stuff just 2 days ago, gave a pass conferencing that you all come what me be, what, what with web isn't paula. we will objectively find a common interest. so we'll try to negotiate towards that common grow. and we'll look at all levels of us government and we've done the last 2 decades will continue to do that going forward. so i think that's a, that's a very cool hit, a very rational approach to think. yeah, it says why, what is the most most was world leaders, whatever they pos, relationship with donald trump has been seen of asia contribute to the largest share of global economic growth. all we going to see a decline in this growth and an increase in insecurity, or are you more positive? uh, uh, so i would say for uh, you know,

the us trade partners writ large. uh, the signals are all flashing, read in terms of trump to uh, you know, we have had, uh, you know, trump threatened uh, tariffs up to 200 percent on automobiles coming in from mexico on top of the 60 percent across the board terrace on chinese in ports uh you know, uh in september robert c o, brian trumps former national security adviser said on day one of the trump administration, there's gonna be a trade more with europe. so we're going to see this fracturing maybe of this alliance system of friends and partners. the binding ministrations work so hard to hard to build up based on trade. so i'd say, you know, all bets are off because, you know, trump may very well in those 1st days or visit ministration. launch kind of a shock and awe campaign. that is all about trade that might disrupt these types of relationships in asia and europe and beyond. and i don't know. so the london school

of economics and political science project that trump towers would lead to a point 68 percent reduction in china's g d p. what are your prospects for the, for the asian economy and any impact that will, these tensions have on such you are see as well? it's going to be relative. i, as my colleague pointed out, that donald trump is declaring economic war on the world. and as a result, it is gonna be paid for by the american consumers who, ironically elected him because they thought he would do something about the what wild the inflation that they've been experiencing. i think it is, there is going to be a very different economic policy about 6 months to a year out when the numbers are coming in and people start streaming on the, in terms of the pain, in terms of the, of the, of going forward in a china, yeah, it's going to hurt, but it's not going to be faithful. and that's the issue a who just started looking at global growth as are saying it's relative. if you

look at, i see on, in china and they're growing very well developed countries aren't human the us, they say that it was going very well that was the narrative coming out of the buying white house. but the fact is it had 70 percent of americans felt that they were living paycheck to paycheck and they voted in donald trump because they had more faith in his ability to write the economy. so that us is not doing all that well. and when it starts, as far as i said, it's going to have a rebound effect, and we'll have to see what happens after that on a tank and, and beijing that seen him kind in washington dc. and then single for graham on was it's been a fascinating discussion. thank you to all 3 of you for your insights. we really appreciate it and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out a 0. don't com as a further discussion to go to our facebook page that facebook dot com forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. i handle this at

a inside story for me, elizabeth put on them and the whole team here, bye for now. the examining the impact of today's headlines. a prolonged conflict for 11 years. economy wouldn't be an absolute death, unflinching john is on how many people are in detention. victor, that may be philosophical. no, don't be focused on giving any miracle international filmmakers well clause. so what's the plan here today? question? the most important part is that we get attention to the climate prizes, bring programs to form an expire on how jesse are a nose ring, far as some of the world's oldest. but they are no match for the deadly fires that increasingly rip through them. in the face of mind made deforestation an

unforgiving climate change. a young indigenous leader makes old plans to protect their village. fire beneath a witness documentary on a jersey shilling the dock chapter. in the cause of a war. they just took our id cards, mailed them, they asked him about his name. we killed the prison, the scene of unspeakable horrors. so i saw a pile of bodies. we had a lot of questions about how these men come to be dead. echoes of the 2 brothers, i must have shut those on out of jersey to donald trump, to return to the one task, becoming the us president for a 2nd time with the promise of with golden bureau for the country to leave the oil

to me in a land ma moment in us politics. stay without jesse or to discover what the result means for america. the rest of the world, the the other the more kyle: this is the news our life from dough ha, coming up in the next 16 minutes. grief in northern dos of the t. 6 members of one family, a killed and is really attack many of them children and 11 and 23 people are killed in as raining strikes on a village north of beret.