the, the, there's no limit to have a dream container stuck in your own adventure. no counter evans is there any way to stop the war into down the fighting is estimated to have killed tens of thousands of civilians calls the largest human displacements in the world. attempts to end the fighting like getting nowhere. so how's the world failed? the people to the base is inside store the

hello. welcome to the program and put and it's 19 months into the war ensued on the scale of impact on civilians is becoming clear. one recent studies has at least 61000 people have been killed in khartoum state alone. and that could be tens of thousands more when the full and the rest of the country are added in. that's much higher than previous estimates. the fighting is cool, is the largest to monetary displacement in the world. well then, 11000000 people have flipped the homes according to the un, the warning policies having shown any interest in diplomatic initiatives to end the fighting. however, the un security council is to discuss another resolution, demanding and then to all still of days. but will i still have any purpose? we'll get to, i guess, in a moment. but 1st, this report by dmitri mexican co hundreds of graves of being dug in costume states. every day of the cemetery is full and the dead on

now being buried in the neighboring football field. what can we, i'd be good to be able to get done. the numbers of the dead became really big. we buried at least 50 people a day. these are all fresh bodies. all were buried in 2024. many deaths. undocumented musicians, candidates on hoody, died of hunger in his home in an area that was controlled by the power military rapids support forces or a set of guidelines. and if they did, because that didn't seem that to you, we had no way to go into barry. him at the closest graveyard because it was very difficult. so we buried in here though. a study by the london school of hygiene and tropical medicine says 60000 people have died in the costume region during the 1st 40 months of the war. that's a fall high, a number then previously estimated and more than one has been officially documented across the country. these include violent deaths during fighting between the recess

and sedans, ami and others from diseases like color of malaria. and then a fever. tell us what the they might not seem. as we all know malnutrition leads to weak immunity. in general, this is one factor which led to exacerbating academics. the united nation says the will, has created one of the biggest humanitarian crises in the world with 11000000 people, forced from their homes and 25000000 facing acute amount nutrition, diplomatic efforts to end the violence of being hampered by foreign players report at least applying more arms to the warring sites, or just the international says it has evidence, weapons, and hardway manufactured by the united arab emirates, and french companies being used on the battlefield. the un security council has condemned both the suits and these army and the r a set for the violence and highlighted atrocities being committed by both sides in the conflict. the shocking accounts of the locals confirmed that the brutality of fame has sadly force over

a 100 and 3rd to women in an unprecedented clothes to commit my suicide as an escape from further sexual violence. on monday, the un we'll discuss a draft resolution put forward by the u. k. calling on warring parties to entrust entities, allow 8 deliveries to those quotes in the fighting and protect civilians and sit down to meet them at video l to 0 for insight story. the that's bringing, i guess in london, the fluid high is the founding director of the sudanese think tank confluence advisory on the prominent civil society advocate for food done in new haven, connecticut. nathaniel raymond is the executive director of the amount of saturn research lab at the yale school of public health. his team closely monitored is what's happening and so down out in medford, massachusetts, alex depa is executive director of the world. peace foundation is recognized as one

of the full most experts on the whole of africa. great to have you all on the program and we want to stop by discussing, if you can lay out for the current situation now on the ground. and then we'll look at the diplomatic challenges there are trying to find a resolution to the fighting ensued. um, so nathaniel, i'll start with you in north da, full of particularly the fighting between the rapids support support forces. i'm assuming these armed forces has been particularly brutal, and you'll see a monetary research lab report is documented at one stage in the whole, more than 50 must casualty events on us and the types of research 6 hours. can you explain to us how serious that is? what that means? right now, there is a page battle between the rabbit score forces in the 6 infantry division, 5 inside the city of al bosher cam. why this is important? is that the last regional capital in r for that's not been taken by the r s f i f l 5 sure falls on

the largest ibp camp and dark floor exams and will likely be under attack 12 kilometers to the south city. this fight is happening uh, following mass occurs by rapids for forces into 0. stay on the other side of the country, which according to you and other sources in less than 10 days, is killed over 1200 people. so right now, there are multiple crises unfolding into them as we speak. and alex, of all fighting is as pick. so with the end of the seasonal rains issue, dams, military gaining any advantage over the reference. simple policies after losing control a vast areas of food on. so there's a tactical push and pull in different parts of the country. no temporary, and in the capital cartoon. but i don't think one can say that so that there's

been any strategic shift of, of an escalation, both signs of a sufficient finance from external sources to find this quote, pretty much indefinitely. both have acquired new weaponry. and i'm afraid that we have set for an escalation over the coming months, which we are seeing unfolding as we speak. and the color is higher when you brief, a un security council back in august. then you pointed out that there's no entity that has monday to protect civilians. that severe means of course, suffering the most out of all of this. how do you effectively get aid in and out to into civilians and protect them in these incredibly difficult circumstances? well then a series of options, for example, you know what the signing on his team is doing. and sort of looking at web troop movement saw and setting up something like an early warning system. opposite of that kind of dates that would be supremely useful to people and making sure that

people on the ground actually know when to be able to be able to predict effectively when an attack might happen so that they can make decisions right now what we're seeing in civilian populations are completely at the massey of the our staff and in places where the system needs on forces says that it can protect civilians. it's not been able to has the star key not been willing to protect civilians. so what we have here is effectively a protection vacuum in the world's largest protection crisis. and of course, on top of that you have, you know, the difficulties with the human turn, a fold it in to the general catastrophe and the general protection vacuum. so what is really required is for the international community to take a look at what protections are available and keeping o options on the table, including the deployment of productions of civilians. forces like human rights watch has said like the humans own fact finding mission has recommended, unlike many people in the civil society are asking for. they are seeing that family members the loved ones dying consistently one night aside. and this has been in any

position to lessen the violence and is alix said we are expecting an escalation here in the coming months between the 2 sides and the others that have joined the fray as well. yes, nathaniel, does your analysis show that any side is getting the oklahoma? that's a really good question. uh at this point. uh, we're seeing basically 4 different floors happening at once. right now. and l. foster rapids for forces have the advantage in khartoum. is alex, as it is in particular, tactical flushing, paul, but the, the core point here is that it's just the star of the dry season. and already with only weeks into the end of the range, we're seeing both sides. i'm trying to exert tactical advantage. and the work can go on indefinitely. alex is entirely right. both sides are dependent on x, sternal actors. and we can see, particularly, i'm rapid support forces, side,

the level of munitions in new weapons in the field has escalated since the end of the range. i'm more comfortable with external actors in a moment about alex view. you see a similar scenario on folding. do you a real escalation rather than any indication that this is, this is heading to heading to and then game. indeed, and, and i think the point that we need to emphasize also is that sedona is the world's largest 2 monetary crises, the number of people's in emergency catastrophe and simon conditions as assessed by the un accredited in tonight in integrated food security phase classification is beyond anything else that has been measured in the last 20 years, we're facing the largest mass mortality event in africa since the 1994 to 5 summit. and if i could stress one point that is often overlooked,

when we talk about to monitor and imagine, see the media, i not have to say, but also international diplomats immediately turn to the issue of how many trucks can cross the board or how much food can be provided that is a secondary issue, it's very important, but a primary issue is the destruction of reliability. what's the force displacement of people, the destruction all the way of life, but keeps people sustained and it's not until we have that type public and to the atrocities but destruction of infrastructure of the destruction of life. because we can begin to see an end to this finding. the issue of humanitarian relief is very important, but it is secondary and that is not focus on that by monday, without looking at the issue that you will be emphasizing up to now, which is the the need to protect civilians hello to, you know, not in

a way that you, i mean there is this x be so it needs a far it does have agreed to extend the opening of this border from child into sit down to get humanitarian assistance through that 3 month opening is extended. only 300 still trucks have crossed. so far i read with supplies with 1300000 people badly scratches the surface. does it? absolutely. and you know, there are several impediments. one is, you know, the ground is complete, the website is impossible in southern parts, even along that after able to. the other thing is that even if trucks are allowed to come to that to the board that are still a lot of the aquatic impediments across all of sedans. um, opening points uh full aid that really mean that guessing i'm guessing aiden from a to b becomes extremely difficult whether that's across the board as such as from chapter sedan or cross line, for example, from south controlled areas to ours have controlled areas and vice versa. and the fact of the matter is, you know, the bulk of a that is being delivered right now is not being delivered to orthodox methods. to

log you in a truck that has to live in by mutual aid group such as an emergency response rooms . and we have not seen any commitments to further support these people through partnerships, through protection, protecting them, and to funding them and making sure that they're able to not just feed people and keep them alive, but also keep these livelihoods going. the supply chains, these markets going through them and down to 2 of delivering aid, which is the only mythology that actually currently functioning. so that needs to be a very rapid, we think, using a projection lends towards the way that aide is being delivered. because quite frankly, it's massively folding short right now. the funding was you spend a lot of time examining this particular satellite images over. so down over the full, are you able to, we keep missing now increased figured for the number of casualties. but that be going from 20000 estimates originally to pops as many as 150000, at least now. are you able to draw any conclusions?

put a figure on how many people you think of a been killed so far in this conflict as well. we can provide the overall figure, we do use the gross and cemetery areas throughout. suzanne is a proxy for measuring mortality and one see a student niece cemetery. we were monitoring this past week. we've had a 52 percent growth of over almost a $150.00 grades and $17.00, cherry alone in just a matter of a month. and so it's impossible to give you a magical number here, but we're seeing all of the indicators we can view from space that help us see of mortality is happening. burn villages, white objects on the ground, consistent with a to meet or by one meter human body dimensions, the gross and the cemeteries. and then most importantly, seeing people fleeing homes,

which we can see from space that's happening in multiple regions of suzanne, most notably in north star floor, but also to 0 and then send our state. and so when are you talking about a population of no, with close to 50000000 people, but then we're underestimating the casualties from this complex home way without a doubt, without a doubt. and then you've had the health infrastructure just looking at car to him and under mom alone. but the people who would do the counter of that to give us to an access mortality figure. they themselves have been victims and they've been targets in this war. and so we, we don't, don't even have the people we need in place to do the account of the data because they themselves have been die. all right, so alex then on monday the un security council will discuss the british drafted resolution demanding, the warring parties ensued on sea salt,

took hostilities and allow on hand at the delivery of aid. how likely is this resolution to get past? and if it is implemented as well, the 1st thing to say is, is too little, too light. why has this not to be on the table at the un security council of 18 months ago? why has the un secretary general not to utilize the tools at his disposal? for example, resolution 2417 on a conflict and hung up to bring this as an urgent matter to the un security council . why when the un fact finding mission some 4 or 5 months ago got on the table the need for a civilian protection mission? why did the un secretary general not to put that in his report? why is he being so timid? why have the u. s. diplomats mandated to this essentially taken on the role

of congo dispatch. i seen a bargaining 400 full of trucks here in the rather than going to the power brokers in the middle east. the places where real decisions are made. why is this simply not being treated with the level of seriousness that we know is possible because it was done some 101215 years ago when the african union, the united nations international key power probably because all lined up to, to make things happen in, in in, in so dawn, so perhaps we will see something out to you and the security council. but even if a resolution has passed is not past with the, the, the measures required. the vig a, the pull difficult commitment rarely to make a difference. hello. do you see that the, the, the rocket support forces and the sidney sidney is on force? he's really believe there is

a military solution to this. so do they realize there is only a political solution? what does that, what are the proxies thing? what is the you a, the, you know, constantly says it has nothing to do with the rapid support force is what does it really think? what does the sudanese on forces that back is egypt and saudi arabia? thing a good thing. when this all started out, there was a very sort of deep belief that but on both comes that they could really take this . will that the take this one they could, they could when i think right now both sides are thinking that they have to, in the level of crimes committed by on either side, particularly the are assessed the, the complications around the over spelling to read regional countries and of course, the interests of that patrons or proxies, as you mentioned, as you call them in the middle east and the gulf, you know, all of that means that they have to secure when, in order to sort of pay politics moving forward. now i don't think that's true instead it needs it needs, history tells us that there is never been any side whether it's a sort of

a quote government, a line side or. busy a rebel apartment, you group, it has ever taken the form of the tree victory and sit down so that simply doesn't bear out. but i think right now there's so stuck in this mindset that they have to win in order to be able to secure the future that they're not looking at any of the event to ality. now obviously political talks do have room head because even if it makes you victory, what to be a secure by either side, which again is very, very unlikely that you need a political settlement in order to be able to actually create something post more. now what that looks like has not been fully automated by either the staff or the are assessed or indeed the civilian support is or indeed that supported in the region. so currently there's no investment committee and a civilian political process or any kind of political outcome because everyone in the special community has been so laser focused on a ceasefire, a military sci fi. so again, this we think of as we need in terms of responding to what the political

environment is right now on the ministry environment is right now. so that is, i think we need okay, i, i saw just before we look at what the political solution could be or might be, nathaniel, we keep, we all say hearing suggestions again that, that could be un, some sort of un, false. for su down from a practical view point from how you see the country and the size of it, it could not work. how challenging would it be for that to be effective? and i can't overstate the logistical and operational challenges of applying a force in sudan having worked with you in peace keeping on the ground in south. suzanne, i have some personal experience on what is needed to be able to successfully. busy of force in the field in these conditions. if you don't have a casualty, evacuation a cave ability to move wounded people out with helicopters. if you don't have the ability to move people in and around with helicopters,

then you can't operate effectively in suzanne in the case of dar for a while and you're talking about patrol. busy areas that are the size of texas, and so just not on just to go level, you need to have, you know, 4 things physically in place to be able to deploy a force. you need to contributing countries, you need the ability to move them in and around. you need the ability to re supply them and most importantly, you need specifically defined areas to find mission, to be able to know where you're logistical needs are, are right now due to a lack of leadership on the 9 nations level. we don't even have the beginning of a vision for what a force should do and uh, you know, so basically we keep talking about a force without really identifying a starting point which is required to begin to answer these logistical questions over. okay. alex you previously we just, we've heard earlier on in the program,

how the fighting is intensified. the warning parties are fresh weapons, new mission, you the military material. you blamed the middle powers as you call them, of the middle east. that's egypt. israel iran kept the saudi arabia to the key. i'm the you a for prolonging the wall because of our interest in the red sea island nile valley . just help us understand why this is, do you believe they all the problems that they are? they are the problems that we need to solution to. so if we go back to something 780 is the trunk doctrine for the middle east had 2 key components, number one, and we're not interested in the multi lateral. so united nations, the african unit cost no trouble. number 2, we have some friends, israel, egypt, saudi arabia, and d, u, a e. and we will back up friends to do what they like on both sides of the red sea . and now that says on folded,

i'm the democracy. i'm putting for democracy in in. so don was a casualty off that we could go into the details of how, of how that happened. but the key factor is that this service is a key parties agree that says egypt and saudi arabia and the u i. e. then the fighting would not be supported from outside. and that would be an opening. it doesn't mean that would be a solution. but if those key parties disagree, that is no possibility of a solution and, and the unit and the blinding. yeah. of the by did ministration, has been to put the, the so don't file with africa and to and to tell only the special on voice. don't trouble the middle east and people just keep it to yourselves, which is which makes them actually irrelevant. as i said, the basic concept is punches for become full of trucks across the front line. and

the tech, only it is, the administration brings together those key part because that we have a pathway to piece. so colored alex that talks about the, the blinding failure of the by not ministration is, do you think the trump being coming from administration is interested in turning the screw on the way? i'm the only other proxies involved in this conflict that he might be willing to do so, but not close to that. i'm not sure he even knows, rested on is on it. but the reality is that, you know, under the last, trump administration being only lens through which his, his, his administration sol sedan was through the abrahamic holds in that shows no sign of stopping. and this time around jumping the session will really want to get saudi arabia on board and might, might give them as sort of a win in the region in order to get them to normalize with israel back could look like i'm backing the said in these impulses and we know that trump is far more likely than the democrats to take to pick aside. and so you know,

pro substance pro south campus, hoping that they'd be able to leverage that saudi normalization to get some support . most of them courses that i've ever had that faxed it, rapid sports courses has already signed the abraham cause. in fact, it was a chief architect of the abraham a code some years ago. and so they, they, uh, the pro r assess campus hoping that they could leverage that initial sort of a advantage and get some support for that side. now what this looks like is that thank the even if one side to be was to get some kind of not from the white house through its proxy or through its allies. it does not mean that this will would stop as alex has mentioned, you know, these countries need to be in alignment agents that are really b, u e and further afield. needs to be in alignment that this one needs to stop in one of them or not in the alignment of the school could continue. and we'll continue. like so you're not in a way that do you think the trump administration would have an interest in turning the screws on these on these proxies involving so down and bringing this conflict to an end, i think as collude absolutely correctly diagnosed did not force the gun it's

possible that some of the fact taught to do with them israel and the abra honda accords might actually bring those countries into a, a alignment. and. and what they may want to do is move on may want to flats at trump as being the great piece made to her and give him something that they worked out themselves so that he could stay forward and say, i have personally, you know, contrived piece. but i think that's festival unlikely. i'm 2nd because it wouldn't solve a problem in, in sit on. so i think that might be isaac, by an accidental deal of the buying products or something else and then sit down, but we shouldn't count on it. okay, folks. well, i'm very sorry we are now out of time, but thanks to all of you to allude, hire to alex to vol. i'm to defend the raymond and thank you to for watching. you can see the problem again. any time by visiting our website alger 0 dot com for

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