and we have only 10 minutes to take our belongings and leave the office so they can shut it down for the victory for the government. get this one of those containing refugees coming the actions of israel's government, the military and taken as been described as the closing of the president vladimir putin revise is russia's nuclear policy paving. the way for the use of atomic weapons, leave hyphens detention, so the west escalates the conflicts with ukraine. what does the change mean for global security? this is inside story, the hello and welcome to the program. on the book. since russia invaded ukraine nearly

3 years ago, it's repeatedly threatened to use this and you called at the hospital and as of the to the west of allies from given ukraine military assistance with millions of dollars. for this week, president platinum it proves an update to the country's nuclear doctrine. now if a non nicholas state with the aid of a new club power threatens russian self and it will be considered a joint, fred and russia could respond with atomic weapons source behind pollutants, least it's escalation. will it impact the fights and can you create and how will the west respond? we'll discuss these issues with our panel. the 1st to support by to meet. remember that russia has the largest nuclear us know in the world, and has been discussing changes to its nuclear policy since september. scenarios in which nuclear weapons could be deployed. now include critical threats to russian sovereignty. aggression by a non nuclear state, supported by a nuclear state, which will now be treated as a joint attack and ballistic missiles targeting russia. president vladimir

susan, signed the new doctrine was of the ukraine launched us supplied. technical missiles tuck comes into russian territory. there stood at the cms, the fact that several attack comes were used and they bring on screech. and of course, it's a signal that they want to escalate. and it is impossible to use these high tech missiles without the americans. putting us said this many times. russia in the us hold 88 percent of the world's nuclear us know like it's europe and allies, washington cold, the amendment, irresponsible rhetoric. we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture. but we will continue to call on russia to stop the bellicose and irresponsible rhetoric, ukraine's presidents full of demons. lensky noted, it was symbolic, that the changes came into effect on the 1000th day of the war,

even especially these day, they presented new, clear weapons set, c, y. this is at no cost of course. nuclear weapons said she, i don't want to go deeply for the disease and don't want to repeat very simple things, putting once more a year into its invasion of ukraine. russia suspended the new stats treaty a 2010 agreement with the us to reduce nuclear arms, citing america's involvement in the conflict. donald trump is weeks away from assuming office, and he promised to end the war in 24 hours. but recent changes in policy by both washington and moscow could put back, go out of reach to meet you mid didn't go out to 0 for inside story. the. all right, let's bring it, i guess,

for most go with joined by people fail going. how are russian defense of military analyst in pittsburgh? pennsylvania is calling clock the research direct to advice to find group a global intelligence and security consultancy. and in munich is mary, and i'm here on a post dr. over such a in the will studies department at kings college london. welcome. all 3 of you to inside story, pavel. i wonder if i can start with you if you could set the scene for us. can you explain why nuclear doctrines exist? the u. s. has its own that reviews periodically other nuclear power is due to what role do these doctrines of especially when the ultimate panel as well in different countries, which are basically different purposes because they do have traffic systems of governance in russia and america? well, they're very, very different. and the united states is a more realistic society with the, the 2 party system on the different bodies change and power. and then we have

these, uh, doctrines. the documents are time being read you enough to carry on the the body and power has changed. i'm not sure it's very different. the russian adapted publicly published and military doctrines, including nuclear brasher doctrine we're talking about right now. that's kind of mimicking what's happening in bold. what is best such documents will have these documents and they play a very important role because they play to be a new career. and deterrence, situation brinkmann shape which has been used for us since the beginning, more or less of the nuclear age in the same ease. and that's important, of course though, in russia actually usage of these documents as

a director of, of when there's kind of when actually they will be deciding maybe one day new to as nuclear weapons are not to use the, they will not russian leadership, military and political will not be looking at the document, right? it'll be a deciding after another wrench for patients. okay. let's talk about the changes to rushes. you can, i don't train because russia says, quote, nuclear strikes could be justified by aggression against the russian federation, by any non nuclear state, with the participation crucially or support of a nuclear state. calling to avoid any confusion, who is russia addressing here? well, this is clearly meant to threaten or blackmail the united states and its continued support for ukraine. i should point out that this is a start departure though, from russian nuclear doctrine. if you think back to october 2022, when there was more nuclear saber rattling by the russians,

there's multiple cold calls between the united states and this russian counter parts. both secretary defense lloyd austin and circus showing you, as well as general mark, milly, and general valerie grass. i'm off to clarify what russian nuclear adoption was grass. and i've talked about 3 circumstances in which the russians would use nuclear weapons. and those cases, one of threatening the stability of the regime to foreign powers, attacking with weapons of mass destruction, and 3, tactical nukes that could be used to offset catastrophic battlefield losses. the us intelligence committee at the time, estimated there was a 50 percent chance the russians might be willing to use tactical nukes, and ukraine. this makes the, uh, you know, this loose ends the doctrine and makes it more likely. this is a, this is a big key chain. this is not something to dismiss, right? we'll get into that. will they? what do they use these weapons shortly, but to memory and also in the not so small prints of these changes throughout his

nuclear dump tree. and it says, russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to any weapons of mass destruction used against it or its allies on the events regression using conventional weapons that threatens the sovereignty, integrity or integrity of russia or batteries. so by the way, it should be mentioned by names once, as russia mean by its allies, we know, of course there are large numbers of north korean troops, potentially points to fight alongside russia as it attempts to retail cost. is north korea covered by these tweaks to the nuclear dr and by russia a good day? well, that is an interesting point and doesn't matter of fact, the nice thing is there is a degree of ambiguities in terms of who is manned by russia's allies, could that also include china, perhaps, and the room? so i think the fact that these are not mean by name

is by intention because the western world will keep guessing, ways that that cannot be attacked or shouldn't be attacked. otherwise, the russians might step in. and i think what is even more interesting here we have been just talking about article 11 of a joint attack, but i think we should also look at article 10 in the presidential decree 91991. and article 10 says that one regression of one state which is a part of a military block or in the alliance is considered as a correction officer entire block. and i think these 2 articles should be considered in conjunction. so while we're talking about a hint, the russians hinting at the united states support thing ukraine. i think if we combine these 2 are the goals, it's essentially it's natal, it's not just the united states,

so we call and say nato obviously out of the equation here. the threat is a little less veiled, spend that maybe we sold marina, come, we assume, then the us and all the nato new to the powers will now also doctrines of their own . i don't know if it's going to trigger any alteration in terms of nuclear doctrine, but it's certainly the beginning of 5th escalation spiral, whereas the deterrent bolster is altered by one state might trigger something in other states. and we have seen a similar matter is happen with national security strategy is worth the russians would read the american national security strategy and then formulate their own based on what they read. so it's very possible that the nuclear doctrines will be adjusted as well as i'm sure you can imagine all of us new to the rhetoric may many sort of course was consigned, very much the past is coming up a long shot over your funding. the russia with the moods in most cases, usually

a couple of other according to chrome, is press secretary to meet for the schools under the new doctrine, the use of western nuclear missiles by the ukrainian on their gaze. russia may lead to a new terrace pulse. so my russian presents be tributes that it threatens the west with world war 3 in case of any aggression against russia, as officials have also repeated versus regina as to retaliation. as the updated doctrine, it gives more room for many that, for most people hear the news. wilson's unexpected as bob has the 10 book present sledging apiece and announced that the amendments of russia's and if you had told the truth, would be updated. and now the president has just signed the decree, according to the associated press, the update of the russian nuclear doctrine was expected by the us to. but the country sees no signs that russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in the ukrainian conflicts. so on, let's say, russia's new type doctor is not a plant. so the use of nuclear weapons,

but the list of potential threats and conditions for the use of such weapons. so they say the doctrine is intended mainly for external audience, for nasal countries, on the allies. and russia's foreign minister through data rule has also recommended the they read the new doctrine passively revolting from oscar. you'd actually pub oliver ultra 0 for you side story. a puzzle coming back to you. let's talk about how we go ahead. what is it about this specific decision by the united states to allow ukraine to use these a longer range attack missiles within russia itself. they is obviously had the attack them just before they've been able to use the mon, you claim the entire tree. now biden's green light to the use of them on the lands mass of rusher itself. why does that now beams? russia feels it needs to rewrite the rules of its nuclear power protocol. you know, nothing big for in the 1st year is the score. most of the fighting was happening in

this out in the territory of ukraine. uh, ends up are, are still listed in the next step overall and there wouldn't be midsize arrived. the 1st of that was a very success. ready rather successful with my guest or russian culture based on the shores of the as i'll see about joe. now the focus of the 5 do just shifted. move to the north, the laundry, where the front line is on the border or, and breaking the course street. and it's already inside rush. you pretty. so the user level, basically we go to, we're not allowed to use the weapons they have being provided. i think that's why i can use already or on not from you fabian. so because i'm russians, so that'd put them either patrick brothers or but i'm to ship right now as being corrected. just the battle, most likely will be shifting very, very seriously. for the north koreans during hand, it's going to be

a big bathroom in courts and they'll be allowed to use the black hole shield and then a back, a message to a weapon of jeffrey, last coke. they're in on the back of the so this is military sense. rush of course, does not like that and say that this is a very dangerous mo, uh, and the pressure will be resorting the new where the turns. the sports is not the military factor since $25.00. it's a political tool, and it's what we use primarily as a political tool. the russian announcement has already full cost a ton of this chord within nato and europe, where different united joe european members react differently because it's a bigger threat or have a smaller stress. but i believe the main target of this announcement is the incoming oppress them to where the no trump, who during his presidential campaign and use

a tribute now was accusing the by the administration of the movie direction of, of world war 3. and i'll be stretching announcement after you only owe a video player threshold gives of the new president, new york that president harvey. i begins to try and switch 3 and this war on terms that russia would consider more favorable. write more on trump a little bit later on in our discussion, but call in i want to remind the view is if something a questions for me, just a sec, i love for all of has reiterated specifically about the green lighting. all of these attack them strategic missiles for use on russian territory. he said without the americans, it's impossible to use these high tech missiles to explain what he means by that. how directly involved is the united states and by extension nato.

well, he's talking about the logistics of using these missiles, the targeting data that goes into it. again, these are fairly complex weapon systems, but it's really not a departure from what the united states and nato allies have been doing in ukraine here too, for. it's just a different weapon this time that's got a longer range and the potential to do damage inside of you know, russian territory rusher, proffer. i think it's important to look at the broader geo political situation right now. we're 2 months out from administration change and we've got both sides the ukrainians and the russians doing everything they can to. so solidify uh you know, territory you know, in advance of what's likely going to be if there is a negotiated settlement, a freezing of the, of the battlefield lines. the russians have been advancing, ukrainian defensive lines been brittle. this is a response to that. and us involved will continue show very keen to the weather.

all of this jostling for supremacy means a degree of paving the way for a negotiated settlement to one of the states. but i am very, very keen to know well the implications in terms of european ministry support for ukraine going forward. whether or not this change of doctrine by russia will in any way for the re thing, particularly when it comes to varying of funds or the united kingdom. deciding whether to go ahead and supply the storm shadow of scouts. miss sol. so the similar to the attack enzymes done, they have a slightly longer range. will they now rethink doing that, given russia is clearly laid to go into the right now. well, that's a very interesting question because we have just mentioned how the russian nuclear deterrent has lost its the turn, the power that's being said, which should also remember how long it took the allies to approve certain packages

of aid, the source, and the mom and i would already use that, it did still function in that it slowed down. the european supports specifically for ukraine and the united states. and, and in some cases the united kingdom have to be leading powers to send specific weapon systems before others followed suit such as the tanks. and so i think um, because um, storm shadow and scope missiles, how are you in ukraine? maybe there will be a pause essentially, but the question is, how many can friends and u. k. supply ukraine was to make a substantial difference on the battlefield. but i think we should also recall, but put inside when he was interviewed about the possibility of ukraine using the long range weapons inside russian territory. he also mentioned the fact that it

would need to be assessed on a case by case scenario. so how significant is the damage caused by those missiles? that being said, um, it's all spit will be also a bit difficult for ukraine to deliver those muscles. because on like attack comes, they are air at the surface missiles. therefore, ukraine would have to use fighter jets. so to, i'm not sure whether in both britain and the united kingdom will reconsider supplying or even lifting restrictions on their use. given the fact that there is a limit of what they can achieve. or let's continue our discussion in a 2nd because a of you, a simple alluded, we in a transition period because the, by the administration on its way out, we've got the trump administration on its way in from famously of course saying that he could end the war and ukraine in 24 hours. here's the view for the white house with all correspond it can be how could the white houses down play russia

shift in nuclear? dr. in it is something the white house believes, has long been planned, and is nothing more than an attempt to intimidate ukraine using what the binding administration calls you are responsible and bellicose rhetoric that it believes will not improve russia security. now the united states views the recent edition of 10000 north korean troops to russia's war effort as a significant escalation. still, the white house says it has not seen any reason to adjust its own nuclear past year . now president elect donald trump has not commented directly on the shift in russia as nuclear past year. however, his son, donald trump junior, has accusing the by the administration of trying to start world war 3 in advance of his father's january integration. kimberly healthcare al jazeera,

the white house, calling the coming to you, the assumption of cost is trump could simply over ton biden's the latest move to both the ukraine by giving it the green light to use these weapons or russian territory. if that is the case with russia, then simply reverse this apartment escalation its tweaks to its doctrine. i'm not sure that it would reverse it stops, and this is a pretty major step. it may just be content that the fighting has ended or is moving toward an end and putting it as likely pretty optimistic that he's going to get what he wants. i think there's other things worth mentioning here that kind of impressed upon the sense of urgency with the bite administration these last 2 months. the administration's also approved the use of and type personnel, land mines and ukraine in an attempt to 4 to 5 defensive lines. and the administration sees this really as an escalation in response to the introduction of

troops from north korea in response to a lot of the russian escalations here. so i think, you know, we, we tend to look at these kind of tactical developments back and forth. but when we take a look back, we take a step back. we look strategically from the beginning, february 2022 to the current. the administration is looking at it along those lines . we're now down to the wire. but most signs indicate that the trump administration will attempt to force the negotiated settlement here. it will likely favor moscow a problem. what do we assume must coast demands would be when it comes to a negotiated settlement, given all of the saber rattling, we've seen so far from both sides. the finding of music for me with just stopped me. finding won't be easy at all. there's one thing on which about the president why didn't report and then premium present been the excuse me,

fully both say that a don't want to free of the present or front line situation as hard to imagine. what kind of formula can avoid some kind of form or phrase? so this uh, the beginning, negotiating positions of both sides seem rather incompatible there miles or miles the bars and find the something in between. bo recliner, the capabilities i don't know if and richardson sure negotiating in 7374, i should. the end of the young people are more and i don't see maybe who will be performing bash, voucher for diplomacy. so it's trying to get to be very hard to find compromised. you stop this simply stop the psych russian demands that your brain do this, that i agree to be. and i say sion and then take over the territories and also become neutral and also disarm. and you bring the says,

you should be really withdrawal from the territories. i mean, certainly hard to find the formula, but they'll be there, isn't it? so they'll be in a, there is a momentum to find some kind of formulas, since no one seems to be outraged on the few. it's better to stop this conflict, but i can turn it in fresh me or in cyprus and find some find a way to continue as it is work. but without the con, somewhere you know, the ultimate, for the effect of you can the weapons to, to be very, very clear. so marina, the magic formula is not very clear. the moment of bosley, the threat of nuclear weapons is particularly helpful by setting the right kind of tow when it comes to diffusing things. are we talking about escalating, deescalate, as well? and that could be a possibility. and what i seen from the russian perspective right now is they are waiting on from to enter the white house. they are trying to take as much territory

as a count under their control so that they can achieve at least partially. there are military slash political objectives, in some cases, in or the 2 positions themselves in, in a more favorable negotiating position. and certainly they will not see their position and where it remains to be seen. what donald trump does. now, changing into a nuclear doctrine, we should look at it also from the informational perspective and creating a smoke screen. because i think while we're waiting for donald trump, russia, we'll be responding to data, but it will not be responding with nuclear weapons. it will not be responding necessarily, right, by email or treating it will continued strikes on ukraine was in the framework of, of what it calls it, special military operation. however, the whole need to is in danger, but to a different kind of the marine. and let me,

let me jump into the last few minutes because it's interesting you made some interesting points the about the kind of response. so we may well see it in the interim because i call in the couple of new developments we need to take in. firstly, the us closing is key. if embassy citing quotes, specific information of a potential significant has tried. and also most recently these 2 undersea tables in the baltic sea connecting finland with germany and sweden and look to a new apparently cups european government to your pin government suspect to a russian sabotage. colon is russia widening its war here to include nato countries directly to. but think look, rush has been at war with nato. from the beginning. they've conducted an, even before ukraine operations in the united kingdom poisoning dissidents in berlin, blowing up arms depots in check, republican bulgaria. so this is nothing new, this russian behavior, it's likely to intensify over these next 2 months. as russians press what they see

is their own advantage. but, but again, this is not something that, that just started putting would like us to believe that everything he does is an, a response to what nato is doing. but that's far from the truth. this is an ongoing saga, we can even go back to 2014. we want it to long before this. i just want to make one point on the freezing of the, of the current lines. the russians say they wouldn't be in favor of that. but if it does happen, they're still cleaning off a large chunk of a sovereign nation. and so it's not like they're, they're not getting any anything out of this. they're essentially taking over a large part of another country, whether it's a demilitarized zone or recognized through some kind of agreement as autonomous territory that, that belongs to rupture. or it's, well we have a scratch the surface of this, a incredibly interesting topic at a very, very crucial time. i'm hopefully it will be meaningful to all of our view is to be watching this discussion of the inside story bible. so i'm going to calling clock,

we read it, we're on a thanks to all 3 of you for your time and thank you to for watching. you can see the problem again. any time by visiting our website, i'll just do it. don't com. and for further discussion, go to a facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. i handle this as a j inside story. maybe for the whole team, about the somebody's government to declare the state of disaster. millions of people are just in need of food. the city is running out of water. this is involved with west routes in decades. this is a full hole in the community, one of many. when i do this for a couple of times, if you look over they usually want to comes out but it's dry. there's nothing new

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