as all war and drink more than the threat of violence, it's right. is there access the lights, the spinning care from the heart of the story is there any forces are striking, densely populated areas? if you think schools, homes, and shelters the president vladimir putin revise is russia's nuclear policy, paving the way for the use of atomic weapons, the hyphens tension, so the west escalates the conflict with ukraine. what does the change mean for global security? this is it side story, the hello and welcome to the probably the amount in the pocket since russia invaded ukraine nearly 3 years ago, it's repeatedly threatened to use this and you called at the hospital. and i was like the to the west of allies from giving you crate and military assistance with

billions of dollars for this week president platinum, it proves an update to the country's nuclear doctrine. now if a non nuclear state with the aid, or if i need to a power threatens russian stuff into, it will be considered a joint. fred and russia could respond with atomic weapons. so what's behind pollutants? least it's escalation. i will it impact the fights and you crane and how will the west respond? we'll discuss these issues with our panel. the 1st, the support by to meet. remember that russia has the largest nuclear us know in the world, and has been discussing changes to its nuclear policy since september. scenarios in which nuclear weapons could be deployed. now include critical threats to russian sovereignty. aggression by a non nuclear state, supported by a nuclear state, which will now be treated as a joint attack and ballistic missiles targeting russia. president flooded miss susan signed. the new doctrine was of the ukraine launched us supplied. technical

missiles, tech comes into russian territory. there stood at the cms, the fact that several attack comes were used and they bring on screech. and of course, it's a signal that they want to escalate. and it is impossible to use these high tech missiles without the americans put in and said this many times russia in the us hold 88 percent of the world's nuclear us know like it to europe and allies, washington cold, the amendment, irresponsible rhetoric. we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture, but we will continue to call on russia to stop the bellicose and irresponsible rhetoric. ukraine's presidents below the missile lensky noted it was symbolic that the changes came into effect on the 1000th day of the war, even especially these day they presented new, clear weapons set, c,

y. this is at no cost of course. nuclear weapons said she, i don't want to go deeply for the disease and don't want to repeat. very simple things . put them once more a year into it's invasion of ukraine. russia suspended the new stats treaty a 2010 agreement with the us to reduce nuclear arms, slicing america's involvement in the conflict. donald trump is weeks away from assuming office, and he promised to end the war in 24 hours. but recent changes in policy by both washington and moscow could put back, go out of reach to meet you mid didn't go out to 0 for inside story. the. all right, let's bring it, i guess for most go with joined by probably fail going. how are russian defense of military analyst and pittsburgh, pennsylvania is calling clock the research direct to advice to find group

a global intelligence and security consultancy, and in munich, is maybe and a mirror on a post doctor over such a in the will studies department at kings college london, welcome. all 3 of you to inside story, pavel. i wonder if i can start with you. if you could set the scene for us. can you explain why nuclear doctrines exist? the u. s. has its own that reviews periodically other nuclear power is due to what role to these doctrines of, especially when the ultimate people as well in different countries, which are basically different purposes because they do have traffic systems of governments in russia and america. well, they're very, very different, and the united states is a more realistic society with the, the 2 party system of the different bodies change and power. and then we have these doctrines, the documents are pending. we do have dotted, carry on the,

the body and power has changed. i'm not sure it's very different. the russian adapted publicly published and military doctrines, including nuclear brasher doctrine. we're talking about right now. and that's kind of mimicking what's happening in bold. what has passed, such documents will have these documents and they play a very important role because they play to be a new career and deterrence, a situation bring midship, which has been used for us since the beginning, more or less of the nuclear age in the fifty's and that's important, of course though, in russia actually usage of these documents as a director of when there's kind of when actually they will be deciding maybe one day. beauty has nuclear weapons. they're not used to,

they will not russian leadership, no or transfer or might be looking at the document, right? it'll be a deciding after not the wrench for patients. okay. yeah, let's talk about the changes to rushes. you can talk to him because russia says, quote, nuclear strikes could be justified by aggression against the russian federation, by any non nuclear state, with the participation crucially or support of a nuclear states. calling to avoid any confusion. who is russia addressing here? well, this is clearly meant to threaten or blackmail the united states and its continued support for ukraine. i should point out that this is a start departure though, from russian nuclear doctrine. if you think back to october 2022, when there was more nuclear saber rattling by the russians, there's multiple cold calls between the united states and is russian counterparts. both secretary defense, lloyd austin and surgery assure you,

as well as general mark, milly, and general valerie grass. i'm off to clarify what russian nuclear adoption was. grass knob talked about 3 circumstances in which the russians would use nuclear weapons. and those cases, one of threatening the stability of the regime to foreign powers, attacking with weapons of mass destruction, and 3, tactical nukes that could be used to offset catastrophic battlefield losses. the us intelligence committee at the time, estimated there was a 50 percent chance the russians might be willing to use tactical nukes, and ukraine. this makes the, uh, you know, this loose ends the doctrine and makes it more likely. this is a, this is a big key chain. this is not something to dismiss, right? we'll get into that. will they? what do they use these weapons shortly, but to memory, and also in the not so small prints of these changes throughout his nickel, adultery. and it says, russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to any weapons of mass

destruction used against it, or its allies or the events of regression using conventional weapons that threatens the sovereignty and territory, the integrity of russia or batteries. so by the way, it should be mentioned by names. once, as russia mean by its eyes, we know, of course there are large numbers of north korean troops, potentially poised to fight alongside russia as it attempts to retake coast. is north korea covered by these tweaks to the new cliff doctrine by russia, a good day? well, that is an interesting point. and as a matter of fact, the nice things there is a degree of ambiguous, in terms of who is manned by russia's allies, could that also include china, perhaps, and the room. so i think the fact that these are not named by name, but is by intention because the western world will keep guessing, ways that that cannot be attacked or shouldn't be attacked. otherwise,

the russians might step in. and i think what is even more interesting here we have been just talking about article 11 of a joint attack, but i think we should also look at article 10 in the presidential decree 91991. and article 10 says that one aggression of one state, which is a part of a military block or an alliance is considered as aggression also entire block. and i think these 2 articles should be considered in conjunction. so while we were talking about a hen, the russians hinting at the united states support thing. ukraine. i think if we combine these 2 are the goals, it's essentially it's natal, it's not just the united states, so we can say night. so obviously out of the equation here, the threat is a little less veiled. spend that maybe we sold marina, come, we assume, then the us and all the nato need to the powers will now alter doctrines of their

own. i don't know if it's going to trigger any alteration in terms of nuclear doctrine, but it's certainly the beginning of 5th escalation spiral. whereas the deterrent schoolstrore is altered by one state might trigger something in other states. and we have seen a similar matters happen with national security strategy is, were the russians would read the american national security strategy and then formulate their own based on what they read. so it's very possible that the nuclear doctrines will be adjusted as well as i'm sure you can imagine all this new to the rhetoric may many sort of course was consigned, very much the past is coming up a long shot over your funding. the russia with the moods, in most cases, usually a couple of other according to criminals press secretary to meet for the schools under the new doctrine, the use of western nuclear missiles by the ukrainian on their gaze. russia may lead

to a new pair of response. similar russian presents we tributes that it threatens the west with world war 3 in case of any aggression against russia. officials have also repeated russia's regina as to retaliation as the update of doctrine. it gives more room for many of us who most people hear the news. wilson's unexpected as bob has the 10 book present sledging apiece and announced that the amendments of rushes and you've got doctrine would be updated and now the president has just signed the decree. according to the associated press, the update of the russian, you've got doctrine was expected by the us to, but the country sees no signs that russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in the ukrainian conflicts. so on, let's say russia's new and you've had dr. is multiplying, so the use of nuclear weapons, but the list of potential threats and conditions for the use of such weapons. so they say the doctrine is intended mainly for external audience, for nasal countries on the allies and rushes,

foreign minister through de la rule has also recommended the they read the new doctrine passively revolting from oscar. you'd actually pub oliver ultra 0 for you side story. a poll coming back to you, let's talk about how we go ahead. what is it about a specific decision by the united states to allow ukraine to use these longer range? i attack missiles within russia of itself. they is obviously had the attack them just before they've been able to use the mon, you claim the entire tree. now biden's green light to the system on the lands mass of rusher itself. why does that now beams? russia feels it needs to rewrite the rules of its nuclear power protocol. a little big for in the 1st year is the score. most of the 5 ingles happening in this out in the territory of ukraine. uh, ends up are, are still listed in the next uh,

almost there wouldn't be midsize arrived. the 1st of that was a very success. ready rather successful with my guest or russian culture based on the sure. certainly, as i've seen a bunch of now the focus of the 5 do you just shifted to the north, the laundry, where the front line is on the border or, and breaking the course street and it's already inside rush. and you pretty so the user level basically we go to are not allowed to use the weapons they have being provided because fighting is already are on not from you for the inside was on russian. so, so that, but the pastor publish it, but i'm to ship right now as being corrected shows the battle, most likely will be shifting very, very seriously for the north koreans during and it's going to be a big bass. and then of course, then they'll be allowed to use the black hole shield and then a back, a message to

a weapon of jeffrey bosco, they're in on the back of the. so this is military sense. rush of course, does not like that and say that this is a very dangerous mo, and the pressure will be resorting the new where the turns. the force is not the military factor since $25.00. it's a political tool, and that's what we use primarily as a political tool. the russian announcement has already full cost from this chord within nato and europe, where different united joe european members react differently. it was a bigger threat to have a smaller thread, but i believe the main target of this announcement is the incoming president to lift the no trump, who during his presidential campaign and his age repeated now was accusing the by the administration of the movie insurrection of a world war 3,

no restriction announcement, after you only owe a video with threshold, gives via the new president, new york that president harvey arguments to try and swearing 3. and this war on terms that russia would consider more favorable, write more on trump, a little bit later on in our discussion, but call in i want to remind the view is of something, a questions for me. just a sec, i love for all of has reiterated specifically about the green lighting. all of these, i talked them strategic missiles for use on russian territory. he said without the americans, it's impossible to use these high tech missiles to explain what he means by that. how directly involved is the united states and by extension nato? well, he's talking about the logistics of using these missiles, the targeting data that goes into it. again,

these are fairly complex weapon systems, but it's really not a departure from what the united states and nato allies have been doing in ukraine here too for. it's just a different weapon. this time that's got a longer range and the potential to do damage inside of uh, you know, russian territory rusher proffer. i think it's important to look at the broader geo political situation right now. we're 2 months out from administration change and we've got both sides. the ukrainians and the russians doing everything they can to so solidify uh, you know, territory you know, in advance of what's likely going to be if there is a negotiated settlement, a freezing of the, of the battlefield lines. the russians have been advancing, ukrainian defensive lines been brittle. this is a response to that. and us involved will continue show very keen to know whether all of this jostling for supremacy means the degree of paving the way for a negotiate in sacramento, one of the states. but i am very,

very keen to know well the implications are in terms of european mandatory support for ukraine going forward. whether or not this change of doctrine by russia will in any way for the re thing, particularly when it comes to marina. from all the united kingdom deciding whether to go ahead and supply the storm shadow of scouts. miss sol. so the similar to the attack enzymes done, they have a slightly longer range. will they now rethink doing that? given russia is clearly laid to go into the where we know, well, that's a very interesting question because we have just mentioned how the russian nuclear deterrent has lost as the turn, the power. that being said, which should also remember how long it took the allies to approve certain packages of aid, the source, and the mom. and i would already use that. it did still function in that it slowed down. the european supports specifically for ukraine and the united states

and, and in some cases the united kingdom have to be leading powers to send specific weapon systems before others followed suit such as the tanks. and so i think um, because the storm shadow and scope missiles are, are you in ukraine? maybe there will be a pause essentially. but the question is, how many can friends and u. k. supply ukraine was to make a substantial difference on the battlefield. but i think we should also recall, but put in sad when he was interviewed about the possibility of ukraine using the long range weapons inside russian territory. but he also mentioned the fact that it would need to be assessed on a case by case scenario. so how significant is the damage caused by those missiles? that being said, um, it's all, it will be also

a bit difficult for ukraine to deliver those muscles. because unlike attack comes, they are air at the surface missiles. therefore ukraine would have to use fighter jets. so to, i'm not sure whether in both britain and the united kingdom will reconsider supplying or even lifting restrictions on their use. given the fact that there is a limit to what they can achieve. or let's continue our discussion in a 2nd because a of you, a simple, eluded we in a transition period because the, by the administration on its way out, we've got the trump administration on its way in from famously of course saying that he could end the war and ukraine in 24 hours. here's the fee for the white house with all correspond, it can be how could the white houses down play russia shift in nuclear? dr. in it is something the white house believes, has long been planned, and is nothing more than an attempt to intimidate ukraine using what the vitamin

ministration calls you're responsible, as bellicose rhetoric that it believes will not improve russia security. now the united states views the recent edition of 10000 north korean troops to russia's war effort as a significant escalation. still, the white house says it has not seen any reason to adjust its own nuclear past year . now president elect donald trump has not commented directly on the shift in russia's nuclear past year. however, his son, donald trump junior, has accusing the by the administration of trying to start world war 3 in advance of his father's january integration. kimberly healthcare alger 0, the white house calling the coming to you. the assumption of course is trump could simply over ton biden's latest move to both the ukraine by giving it the green

light to use these weapons on russian territory. if that is the case with russia, then simply reverse this apartment escalation is tweaks to its doctrine. i'm not sure that it would reverse it stops, and this is a pretty major step. it may just be content that the fighting has ended or is moving toward an end and putting it as likely pretty optimistic that he's going to get what he wants. i think there's other things worth mentioning here that kind of impressed upon this sense of urgency with a bite administration these last 2 months. the administration's also approved the use of anti personnel land mines in ukraine in an attempt to $4.00 to $5.00 defensive lines. and the administration sees this really as an escalation in response to the introduction of troops from north korea in response to a lot of the russian escalations here. so i think, you know, we,

we tend to look at these kind of tactical developments back and forth. but when we take a look back, we take a step back. we look strategically from the beginning, february 2022 to the current. the administration is looking at it along those lines . we're now down to the wire. but most signs indicate that the trump administration will attempt to force the negotiated settlement here and will likely favor moscow a problem. what do we assume must coast demands would be when it comes to a negotiated settlement, given all of the saber rattling, we've seen so far from both sides. the finding of music for me, what to stop me by doing won't be easy at all. there's one thing on which both the president, whether my board can really impressive in the, is it, do you agree fully both say they don't want to free of the present or front line situation as hard to imagine what kind of form the can avoid some kind of form of

freezing. so this uh, the beginning, negotiating positions of both sides seem rather incompatible. they're miles and miles the bars and find the something in between. bo recliner, the capabilities i don't know if and richardson sure negotiating in 7374 of chevy ends of the young people are more and i don't see maybe who will be performing bash, voucher for diplomacy. so it's trying to get to be very hard to find a compromise. you stop this, simply stop the fight, the russian demands that you break and do this, that i agree to be. and i say sion and the take over of these territories and also become neutral and house to disarm. and you bring the says, you should be the withdrawal from the territories. i mean, certainly hard to find the formula, but they'll be there, isn't that. so they'll be in, there is

a momentum to find some kind of formulas since no one seems to the outbreak of the few is better to stop this conflict. but i can vary and trash me or, and cypress, and find some find a way to continue as it is work. but without the con, somewhere you know, the ultimate, for the i mean that the threat of nuclear weapons to that, to be very, very clear. so marina, the magic formula is not very clear. the moment of obviously, the threat of nuclear weapons is particularly helpful by setting the right kind of tow when it comes to diffusing things. are we talking about escalating, deescalate as well, and that could be a possibility. and what i seen from the russian perspective right now is they are waiting on from to enter the white house. they are trying to take as much territory as they can under their control so that they can achieve at least partially. there are military slash political objectives, in some cases,

in or the 2 positions themselves in, in a more favorable negotiating position. and certainly they will not see their position and where it remains to be seen. what donald trump does. now, changing into a new, clear doctrine, we should look at it also from the informational perspective and creating a smoke screen. because i think while we're waiting for donald trump, russia, we'll be responding to data, but it will not be responding with nuclear weapons. it will not be responding necessarily, right, by email, which means it will continued strikes on ukraine was in the framework of, of what it's called is special military operation. however, the whole need to is in danger but to a different kind. of course, i think i've looked at maureen and let me, let me jump into the last few minutes because it's interesting you made some interesting points the about the kind of response that we may well see in the interim, because i call in the couple of new developments we need to take in firstly,

the us closing is key if embassy citing quotes specific information of a potential significant has tried. and also most recently these 2 under see tables in the baltic sea connecting friends with germany and sweden and look to a new apparently cups european government to your pin government suspect to russian sabotage. colon is russia widening its war here to include nato countries directly . and i think look, rush has been at war with nato, from the beginning. they've conducted an even before ukraine operations in the united kingdom poisoning dissidents in berlin, blowing up arms depots in check, republican bulgaria. so this is nothing new, this russian behavior, it's likely to intensify over these next 2 months. as russians press what they see is their own advantage. but, but again, this is not something that just started putting would like us to believe that everything he does is in a response to what nato is doing. but that's far from the truth. this is an ongoing

saga. we can even go back to 2014 if we want it to long before this, i just want to make one point on the freezing of the, of the current lines. the russians say they wouldn't be in favor of that. but if it does happen, they're still cleaning off a large chunk of a sovereign nation. and so it's not like they're, they're not getting any anything out of this. you're essentially taking over a large part of another country, whether it's a demilitarized zone or recognized through some kind of agreement as autonomous territory that, that belongs to russia. or i to a, we have a scratch the surface of this a incredibly interesting topic at a very, very crucial time. i'm hopefully it will be meaningful to all of our view is to be watching this discussion of the inside story problem solving. how calling clock marietta, we are on thanks to all 3 of you for your time and find q 2 for watching as you can see the problem again, any time by visiting our website, i'll just do

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arabic language to mankind. the . so i'm carry johnston into how we begin with breaking news from gaza. at least 66 people have been killed in a series of mess if it's ready, as strikes on that law here in the north of the gaza strip. most of the dead, the women and children, more than 100 had been injured. many people including children, are stuck on to the level. it's not targeted, a residential neighborhood around the come out as one hospital. but area a strike on the, on this route, refugee camp in the center of the strip of targeted a prairie minnes school, but hundreds of displaced posting in families with sheltering rescue teams rushed to help the injured, done to try to find says, life is at least 7 protest opinions and 9 to die.