as a weekly look at the world's tough business stories. what does a rake cost in the united states main for the rest of us from global markets and economies to construction small businesses should that be beyond? to asked if people have spent a lot of time working, that part of the answer to understand how it affects the nights with still remain before we can truly say that we are in say, 10 x ray, counting the cost on jersey or president vladimir putin revise is russia's nuclear policy paving the way for the poor, the use of atomic weapons, the hyphens, the tension, so the west and escalates the conflict with ukraine. what does the change mean for global security? this is it side story. the

hello and welcome to the program of the bulk. since russia invaded ukraine nearly 3 years ago, it's repeatedly threatened to use this and you click hospital. and as of the, to the west of allies from giving you credit and military assistance with billions of dollars. but this week, president platinum, it proves an update to the country is new to the doctrine. now if a no nicholas states with the aid of a new club power threatens russian self and it will be considered a joint, fred and russia could respond with atomic weapons source behind pollutants, least it's escalation. how would it impact the fighting a new crane and how will the west respond? we'll discuss these issues with our panel. the 1st, the support by to meet you met with russia has the largest nuclear us know in the world and has been discussing changes to its nuclear policy since september scenarios in which nuclear weapons could be deployed. now include mood,

critical threats to russian sovereignty, aggression by a non nucleus state, supported by a nuclear state, which will now be treated as a joint attack and ballistic missiles targeting russia. president vladimir susan signed the new doctrine was of the ukraine launched us, supplied tactical missiles tech comes into russian territory. so that comes to the fact that several attack hymns were used in the building on screech. and of course, it's a signal that they want to escalate, and it is impossible to use these high tech missiles without the americans put in a said this many times. russia in the us hold 88 percent of the world's nuclear us know like it's your fee and allies, washington cold, the amendment, irresponsible rhetoric. we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture, but we will continue to call on russia to stop the bellicose and irresponsible

rhetoric. ukraine's presidents will admit, zalinski noted. it was symbolic that the changes came into effect on the 1000th day of the war, even especially these day they presented new, clear weapons set g, y us is that the said no, of course, of course, nuclear weapons said she, i don't want to go deeply for the disease and don't want to repeat, very simple things, putting once more a year into its invasion of ukraine. russia suspended the new stats treaty, a 2010 agreement with the us to reduce nuclear arms. citing america's involvement in the conflict. donald trump is weeks away from assuming office and he promised to end the war in 24 hours. but recent changes in policy by both washington and moscow could put back, go out of reach. to meet you mid didn't go out to 0 for inside story.

the, all right, let's bring it, i guess, for most go with joined by public fellow going, how are russian defensive military analyst in pittsburgh? pennsylvania is calling clock the research direct to advice to find groups. a global intelligence and security consultancy, and in munich is mary, and i'm here on a post doctor over such a in the will studies department and kings colleagues, london, welcome all 3 of you to inside story, pavel. i wonder if i can start with you. if you could set the scene for us, can you explain why nuclear doctrines exist? the u. s. has its own that reviews periodically other nuclear power is due to what role do these doctrines of especially when the ultimate panel as well in different countries, which are basically different purposes because they do have traffic systems of governance in russia and america? well, they're very, very different. and the united states is

a more realistic society with the, the 2 party system on the different bodies change and power. and then we have these, uh, doctrines. the documents are time being read you enough to carry on the the body and power has changed. i'm not sure it's very different. the russian adapted publicly published military doctrines, including nuclear brasher, doctrine we're talking about right now. that's kind of mimicking what's happening in bold. what is best such documents will have these documents and they play a very important role because they play to be a new career, a deterrence situation brinkmann ship, which has been used for us since the beginning, more or less of the nuclear age in the same ease and that's important,

of course though, in russia actually usage of these documents as a director of, of when there's kind of when actually they will be deciding maybe one day new to as nuclear weapons are not to use the, they will not russian leadership, military and political and i'd be looking at the document, right? it'll be a deciding after another wrench for patients. okay, i'd color, let's talk about the changes to rushes. you can, i don't train because russia says, quote, nuclear strikes could be justified by aggression against the russian federation, by any non nuclear state, with the participation crucially or support of a nuclear state. calling to avoid any confusion, who is russia addressing here? well, this is clearly meant to threaten or blackmail the united states and its continued support for ukraine. i should point out that this is a start departure though,

from russian nuclear doctrine. if you think back to october 2022, when there was more nuclear saber rattling by the russians, there is multiple cold calls between the united states and this russian counter parts. both secretary defense lloyd austin and circus showing you, as well as general mark, milly, and general valerie grass. i'm off to clarify what russian nuclear adoption was grass. and i've talked about 3 circumstances in which the russians would use nuclear weapons. and those cases, one of threatening the stability of the regime to foreign power is attacking with weapons of mass destruction and 3 tactical nukes that could be used to offset catastrophic battlefield losses. the us intelligence committee at the time, estimated there was a 50 percent chance the russians might be willing to use tactical nukes, and ukraine. this makes the, uh, you know, this loose ends the doctrine and makes it more likely. this is a, this is

a big key chain. this is not something to dismiss, right? we'll get into that. will they? what do they use these weapons shortly, but to memory, and also in the not so small prints of these changes to about his nuclear dump tree . and it says, russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to any weapons of mass destruction used against it. or its allies on the events regression using conventional weapons that threatens the sovereignty, integrity or integrity of russia or batteries. so by the way, it should be mentioned by names. once, as russia mean by its allies. we know, of course, there are large numbers of north korean troops, potentially poised to fight alongside russia as it attempts to retail cost. is north korea covered by these tweaks to the nuclear dr. and by russia a good day? well, that is an interesting point. and as a matter of fact, the nice things there is a degree of ambiguities in terms of who is manned by russia's allies, could that also include china, perhaps,

and the room. so i think the fact that these are not mean by name is by intention because the western world will keep guessing, ways that that cannot be attacked or shouldn't be attacked. otherwise, the russians might step in. and i think what is even more interesting here we have been just talking about article 11 of a joint attack, but i think we should also look at the article town in the presidential decree 91991. and article 10 says that one regression of one state which is a part of a military block or in the alliance is considered as a correction officer entire block. and i think these 2 articles should be considered in conjunction. so while we're talking about a hint,

the russians hinting at the united states support thing ukraine. i think if we combine these 2 are the goals, it's essentially it's natal, it's not just the united states, so we call and say nato obviously out of the equation here. the threat is a little less veiled, spend that maybe we sold marina, come, we assume, then the us and all the nato new to the powers will now alter doctrines of their own. i don't know if it's going to trigger any alteration in terms of nuclear doctrine, but it's certainly beginning offsets escalation spiral, whereas the deterrent schoolstrore is altered by one state might trigger something in other states. and we have seen a similar matter is happen with national security strategy as were the russians would read the american national security strategy and then formulate their own based on what they read. so it's very possible that the nuclear doctrines

will be adjusted as well as i'm sure you can imagine all of us new to the rhetoric may many sort of course was consigned, very much the past is coming up a long shot over your funding. the russia with the moods in most cases, usually a couple of other according to chrome, is press secretary to meet for the schools under the new doctrine. the use of western nuclear missiles. why the ukrainian on their gaze, russia may lead to a new terrace pulse. so my russian presents be tributes that it threatens the west with world war 3 in case of any aggression against russia, as officials have also repeated russia's regina is to return the 8th as the updated doctrine. it gives more room for many of us. for most people hear the news. wilson's unexpected as bob has the 10 book present sledging apiece and announced that the amendments of russia's and you've got doctrine would be updated. and now the president has just signed the decree. according to the associated press, the update of the russian, you can't, doctrine was expected by the us to, but the country sees no signs that russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in

the ukrainian conflicts. so on, let's say russia's new and you've had dr. is multiplying, so the use of nuclear weapons, but the list of potential threats and conditions for the use of such weapons. so they say the doctrine is intended mainly for external audience, for nasal countries on the allies and rushes for administrative data roles has also recommended the they read the new doctrine passively revolting from oscar. you'd actually pub oliver ultra 0 for you side story. a puzzle coming back to you. let's talk about how we go ahead. what is it about this specific decision by the united states to allow ukraine to use these a longer range attack missiles within russia itself. they is obviously had the attack them just before they've been able to use the mon, you claim the entire tree. now biden's green light to the use of them on the lands mass of rusher itself. why does that now beams?

russia feels it needs to rewrite the rules of its nuclear power protocol. you know, nothing big for in the 1st year is the score. most of the fighting was happening in this out. and the territory of ukraine uh, ends up are, are still listed in the next uh, almost there when visa midsize arrived, the 1st of the was a very successful. ready rather successful with my guest or russian culture based on the shores of the as i'll see about joe. now the focus of the 5 do just shifted . move to the north, the laundry, where the front line is on the border or, and breaking the course street. and it's already inside rush. you pretty. so the user level, basically we go to, we're not allowed to use the weapons they have provided. i think that's why i can use already or on not from you fabian. so because i'm russians,

so that'd put them either patrick brothers or but i'm to ship right now as being corrected since the battle most likely will be shifting very, very seriously. for the north koreans during the spring could be a big bathroom in corsica and they'll be allowed to use the black hole shield guns . and i can measure the weapon of jeffrey, last coke there in on the back of the. so this is military sense. rush of course, does not like that and say that this is a very dangerous mo, uh, and the pressure will be resorting the new where the parents of the keyboard, the sports is not the military factor since 25. it's a political tool, and it's what we use primarily as a political tool. the russian announcement has already full cost from this chord within nato and europe, where different united joe european members react differently. it was a bigger threat or have a smaller thread,

but i believe the main target of this announcement is the incoming oppress them to where the no trump, who during his presidential campaign and use a tribute now was accusing the by the administration of the movie direction. of of world war 3, and i'll be stretching announcement after you only owe a video where's threshold? gives of the new president, new york that president harvey arguments to drive suite 3. and this war on terms that russia would consider more favorable, write more on trump, a little bit later on in our discussion, but call in i want to remind the view is if something a questions for me, just a sec, i love for all of has reiterated specifically, about the green lighting, all of these a talk them strategic missiles for use on russian territory. he said without the americans,

it's impossible to use these high tech missiles to explain what he means by that. how directly involved is the united states and by extension nato? well, he's talking about the logistics of using these missiles, the targeting data that goes into it. again, these are fairly complex weapon systems, but it's really not a departure from what the united states and nato allies have been doing in ukraine here too for. it's just a different weapon. this time that's got a longer range and the potential to do damage inside of you know, russian territory rusher proffer. i think it's important to look at the broader geo political situation right now. we're 2 months out from administration change and we've got both sides the ukrainians and the russians doing everything they can to. so solidify uh you know, territory you know, in advance of what's likely going to be if there is a negotiated settlement,

a freezing of the, of the battlefield lines. the russians have been advancing, ukrainian defensive lines been brittle. this is a response to that. and us involved will continue show very keen to the weather. all of this jostling for supremacy means a degree of paving the way for a negotiate in sacramento, one of the states. but i am very, very keen to know well the implications uh, in terms of european ministry support for ukraine going forward. whether or not this change of doctrine by russia will in any way for the re thing, particularly when it comes to varying a fronds or the united kingdom. deciding whether to go ahead and supply the storm shadow of scouts. miss sol. so the similar to the attack enzymes done, they have a slightly longer range. will they now rethink doing that? given russia is clearly like to go into the right now. well, that's a very interesting question because we have just mentioned how the russian

nuclear deterrent has lost its the turn, the power that's being said, which should also remember how long it took the allies to approve certain packages of aid, the source. and the marmont. i would already use that, it did still function in that it slowed down. the european supports specifically for ukraine and the united states and, and in some cases the united kingdom have to be leading powers to send specific weapon systems before others followed suit such as the tanks. and so i think um, because um, storm shadow and scope missiles, how are you in ukraine? maybe there will be a pause essentially. but the question is, how many can friends and u. k. supply ukraine was to make a substantial difference on the battlefield. but i think we should also recall,

but put inside when he was interviewed about the possibility of ukraine using the long range weapons inside russian territory. he also mentioned the fact that it would need to be assessed on a case by case scenario. so how significant is the damage caused by those missiles? that being said, um, it's all spit will be also a bit difficult for ukraine to deliver those muscles. because on like attack comes, they are air at the surface missiles. therefore, ukraine would have to use fighter jets. so to, i'm not sure whether in both britain and the united kingdom will reconsider supplying or even lifting restrictions on their use. given the fact that there is a limit of what they can achieve. or let's continue our discussion in a 2nd because a of you, a simple alluded, we in a transition period because the, by the administration on its way out, we've got the trump administration on its way in from famously of course saying

that he could end the war and ukraine in 24 hours. here's the view for the white house with all correspond it can be how could the white houses down play russia shift in nuclear? dr. in it is something the white house believes, has long been planned, and is nothing more than an attempt to intimidate ukraine using what the vital administration calls you're responsible and bellicose rhetoric that it believes will not improve russia security. now the united states views the recent edition of 10000 north korean troops to russia's war effort as a significant escalation. still, the white house says it has not seen any reason to adjust its own nuclear past year . now president elect donald trump has not commented directly on the shift in russia as nuclear past year. however, his son, donald trump junior,

has accusing the by the administration of trying to start world war 3 in advance of his father's january integration. kimberly healthcare al jazeera, the white house, calling the coming to you, the assumption of cost is trump could simply over ton biden's the latest move to both the ukraine by giving it the green light to use these weapons on russian territory. if that is the case with russia, then simply reverse this apartment escalation its tweaks to its doctrine. i'm not sure that it would reverse it stops, and this is a pretty major step. it may just be content that the fighting has ended or is moving toward an end and putting it as likely pretty optimistic that he's going to get what he wants. i think there's other things worth mentioning here that kind of impressed upon the sense of urgency with the bite administration these last 2 months. the administration's also approved the use of and type personnel,

land mines and ukraine in an attempt to 4 to 5 defensive lines. and the administration sees this really as an escalation in response to the introduction of troops from north korea in response to a lot of the russian escalations here. so i think, you know, we, we tend to look at these kind of tactical developments back and forth. but when we take a look back, we take a step back. we look strategically from the beginning, february 2022 to the current. the administration is looking at it along those lines . we're now down to the wire. but most signs indicate that the trump administration will attempt to force the negotiated settlement here. it will likely favor moscow a problem. what do we assume must coast demands would be when it comes to a negotiated settlement, given all of the saber rattling, we've seen so far from both sides. the finding of music for me

with just stopped me. finding won't be easy at all. there's one thing on which about the president why the report and then premium present, been the excuse me, fully both say that a don't want to free of the present or front line situation as hard to imagine what kind of form the can avoid some kind of form or phrase. so this uh, the beginning, negotiating positions of both sides seem rather incompatible there miles or miles the bars and find the something in between. bo recliner, the capabilities, i don't know if henry kissinger negotiating in 7374, i should. the end of the young people are more, and i don't see maybe who will be performing bash, voucher for diplomacy. so it's trying to be very hard to find a compromise if this simply stopped beside the russian demands that your brain do

this, that i agree to be. and i say sion the take over of these territories and also become neutral and also disarm. and you bring the says, you should be really withdrawal from the territories. i mean, certainly hard to find the formula, but they'll be there, isn't it? so they'll be in a, there is a momentum to find some kind of formulas since no one seems to be really outraged on the few. it's better to stop this conflict, but i can throw a trash mirror in cypress and find some find a way to continue as it is work. but without the con, somewhere you know, the ultimate, for the, i mean i have had them, you could have weapons that had to be very, very clear. so marina, the magic formula is not very clear. the moment of bosley, the threat of nuclear weapons is particularly helpful by setting the right kind of tow when it comes to diffusing things. are we talking about escalating, deescalate, as well?

and that could be a possibility. and what i seen from the russian perspective right now is they are waiting on from to enter the white house. they are trying to take as much territory as a count under their control so that they can achieve at least partially. there are military slash political objectives, in some cases, in or the 2 positions themselves in, in a more favorable negotiating position. and certainly they will not see their position and where it remains to be seen. what donald trump does. now, changing into a nuclear doctrine, we should look at it also from the informational perspective and creating a smoke screen. because i think while we're waiting for donald trump, russia, we'll be responding to data, but it will not be responding with nuclear weapons. it will not be responding necessarily, right, by email or treating it will continued strikes on ukraine within the framework of,

of what it's called is special military operation. however, the whole need to is in danger but to a different kind of the marine. and let me, let me jump into the last few minutes because it's interesting you made some interesting points the about the kind of response. so we may well see it in the interim because i call in the couple of new developments we need to take in. firstly, the us closing is key if embassy citing quotes specific information of a potential significant has tried. and also most recently these 2 undersea cables in the baltic sea connecting finland with germany and sweden and look to a new apparently cups european government to european governments. despite to a russian sabotage, colon is russia widening its war. here to include nato countries directly to. but think look, rush has been at war with nato. from the beginning. they've conducted an even before ukraine operations in the united kingdom poisoning dissidents in berlin, blowing up arms depots, and check republican bulgaria. so this is nothing new,

this russian behavior, it's likely to intensify over these next 2 months. as russians press what they see is their own advantage. but, but again, this is not something that, that just started putting would like us to believe that everything he does is in a response to what nato is doing. but that's far from the truth. this is an ongoing saga, we can even go back to 2014. we want it to long before this. i just want to make one point on the freezing of the, of the current lines. the russians say they wouldn't be in favor of that. but if it does happen, they're still cleaning off a large chunk of a sovereign nation. and so it's not like they're, they're not getting any anything out of this. you're essentially taking over a large part of another country, whether it's a demilitarized zone or recognized through some kind of agreement as autonomous territory that, that belongs to russia. or i to, well we have a scratch the surface of this, a incredibly interesting topic at a very,

very crucial time. i'm hopefully it will be meaningful to all of our view is to be watching this discussion on inside story bible. so i'm going to calling clock, we read it, we're on a thanks to all 3 of you for your time and thank you to for watching. you can see the problem again. any time by visiting our website, i'll just do a don't com. and for further discussion, go to a facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. i handle is add a j inside story. maybe for the whole team about the the latest news as it breaks civilians, ha, calling the international community to afford them protection, especially in the area that it has what it has announced it to be completely safe with detailed coverage for getting to pay something dollars or more and bring more

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right. and now you see many have these about pen arrested with the latest local news and insightful documentary. gc was teams across the world. when you, closer to the cost of the story, the children succeed. palestinians are killed in a series of overnight asteroid. some northern garza, most the women and children, the money inside business out, is there a knife and toe, so coming up, be driving the cx $5.00 the us block. so un security council resolution calling for a truce for the full time since the war began. americans told me invoice says some progress has been made as he had.