mother at this, now in his fourties, a survivor of argentina's, brutal ministry dictated sure. its search of his ident, you might from shooting to exposing the reverberation systemic force adoptions in the states. 19700 speak with gina stolen. i just the, although i'm, adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i would just say are you'll reach and look at the world of business and they get on this week. the us dollar has been on our role, but for how much longer. we look at why the green back of strength and effective spelled trouble for the rest of the world. donald trump's terrorist threats could

help decide brittany is afraid future. so should the u. k. pick sides between the us and europe, or kind of the strike deals with folks i lies. an engine easy. i wants to become a high income nation by 2045, but it's middle class is shrinking. so what can help shore up the incomes of millions of into these young people donald trump will soon be back in the top job of the us dollar has risen on the back of his presidential election. victory had got a lot stronger the strongest of the year. days off, the trump was elected the riley last week on the school, the strength of the american economy in comparison to which will p is known as american economic exceptionalism. and it makes it cheaper for many americans shop us to buy foreign goods and to travel abroad. but a strong dollar doesn't lift old boats companies, but the export products may become less competitive and the us deficit map may whiten. that's a problem for trump, who's often said that he prefers

a week of dollar. the greenbacks wise could also create a lot of pain for the rest of the world. as veronica patrol reports, donald trump was a weaker exchange rate to support the growth of us exports and to help reduce the countries trade deficit. but since winning the us presidential election, the dollar has skyrocketed mostly in anticipation of his policies to impose paris on imports. and texas, trump is now full um for growth on policy. so i think that's why the market has been reacting positively because of the program. yeah, he's for growth, so it would stimulate economic growth. however, having said that, you know, from of policy, we also grant inflationary expectation to it because you have steve and i think the economy a strong dollar makes it cheaper for american consumers to buy foreign goods. i'm to travel abroad. but for us companies,

it means that our exports become more expensive and less competitive in the global market. and for other countries, dependent on trade with the us, they of bracing themselves for the effects of higher costs and the potential economic slowdown. up carolina told me about getting it to him in so given that we now have an anticipated policy direction or something, even before the trump administration has fully launched, the international markets have already begun responding. so please monitor the markets carefully and prepare comprehensively. trump once a week dollar, but his policies might have the opposite effect, which would not have any impact to us. but the entire global economy, veronica pedroza, which is era, the counting, the cost, the confidence expected to be hit hottest by the effects of a stronger dollar is africa when 9 countries are in debt distress, meaning that they comp or pay the loans. many of these loans must be paid in

dollars, and a stronger dollar makes them more expensive. this forces countries to spend less on things like health care, education, and infrastructure. the rising dollar also increases the cost of imports. this can cause inflation to rise in countries already struggling. for example, substitute balance inflation rate is 107 percent to bob with is over 50 percent time. nearly many african economies depends on exposing commodities like oil, gold and culpa. these are old priced in dollars and a stronger dollar makes these goods more expensive for consumers globally, eventually reducing the demand and ultimately shrinking export revenues. this could be a major issue for countries like by jerry of south africa and zambia. joining us not from london is not a outline c i o office a capital markets really good to have you with us. why would a donald trump presidential victory have strengthened the dollar so significantly,

base for i mean that i think it was very much given that's when donald from the president elect, someone who will take the office. daughter is going to become more strong. that because he is very much pro dollar and then he's going to make show that daughter is gonna remain the dominant covered and say, now as you've mentioned and year obviously strong. the daughter is a major, had been for a number of emerging countries. the one that should mention, however, there is a bit of a caviar to that and that is, but if you are looking at for advice is yes the. busy will become stronger, but then of, of course, throughout the process where we could look at the dollar becoming bit more recovery as well, which i will discuss in the later part. but 1st, that's to pass on the commodity perspective and especially from a or perspective, or even when the president elect, we'll take the all states what we are anticipating re enters a painting, nor oil prices. we are anticipating point process to go down to $2040.00

a perhaps below $40.00. why? because his policy is going to be very simple. drill baby trail. and that is what american oil companies are going to do. so that needs to be kind of have an abundance supply on the market. now that sort shift back to your conversation about a stronger dollar. we see a much stronger dollar or why the stronger dollar has happened. the reason is, of course, what the federal reserve is that, but it how, how the federal reserve is kindly gets monetary policy in relation to economic data . now the yes of course, trump, on one time he's very much pro daughter. he was a daughter to remain strong, but at the same time, he's also an individual or chevy say, and elected president who doesn't like interest rates to remain strong for a longer period of time. so there is this element, there is this concern among the investors and traitors that when president elect will take the office, he is that more pressure on the federal reserves to cut interest rates more rapidly

. so what does that entail that entails the current sprint, which everyone has informed me that body date and emerging markets may no longer be that much of a significant, correct for them? in fact, but could be looking at a situation where we have a weaker dollar and also a lower commodity prices. i, i just wanna pick you up on something you said they use. the trump is in favor of a strong adult that he's made it clear in the past that he would prefer the dollar to be weak up all the lessons for the incoming from administration, from his 1st of all right. the dollar strengthens when he was 1st elected in 2016 a year later. a bas wants something like 10 percent lower. he's harris, inheriting a very different economy. this time round isn't a and i think trump is very lucky in terms of inhabiting the economy. because when he can haze episode number one, he came from a bama administration. right. so it was so he inherited the economy,

which felt which was coming from a bottom administration economy. it wasn't a very strong sort of thing. so trump had that plenty of. ready moving in times off of these policies and economy performed brand new out now in the after season to chevy, safe off trump. uh, administration again is incredibly lucky from that particular perspective. why? because we are looking at a situation from the monetary policy standpoint, from the federal reserve standpoint, where the federal reserve is costing the interest rate. and we all know one thing for sure. and then history tells us over and over and over again. then market loves salvation, right? meaning when the interest rates are cutting, when monetary policy is actually more on the topic side. so i think that is what we're going to see in the, in the season to of trump administration as well. so this, this administration is going to have a lot more experience on the backs, the what they did in the end, the season one. i need

a when trump was back in the office and use that experience as a leverage to perform and do batch of steps, but at least that is what is the anticipated among the investment for benefit? could you foresee a situation where the dollar weakens against the euro? the pound began significantly to below parity, perhaps even now below parity. that is, uh, that's not our base case scenario or among the major bank steps on the wall street . either we can see below, pharmacy below priority or the stress of that happened during the bush administration brand. we lessing financial process. secondly, fiction, darmesh, monetary policy, significant interest re pods. now, even though we are anticipating adopters, monetary policy, meaning a number often to spread costs go against the next couple of years. but no one is going to expect that number or the power to take place. there is a possibility that we could perhaps see in terms of the euro,

but in terms of styling or other major g time currencies. i, i think i especially in, in, in, in terms of fast. i mean, i don't think we're going to get that until and unless of course they, you can't decide. so how about most self inflicted injuries like the one they have before i. e brackets, you couldn't foresee a situation then where a trunk trouble buy out a dollar that. so that's simply too strong for his liking, introduced to something like the plaza accord. we saw in the reagan administration where the, the, the dollar was effectively div valued in coordination. with, with the, with allies while about alike. i am i'm, i'm glad that you brought those particular points on their very interesting point. bought a game the is the, the best case scenario is going to be what the federal reserve or the monetary policy is really going to be a half a day in commerce expressions going to instead on the federal reserve chairman and is the federal reserve is going to have its own choice of making the interest.

right. so pretty slow. absolutely not. the basic is somebody among many investors or even in the options market. i am really good to talk to you if any thanks event to bring with us. pleasure by a frequent must choose between the european union socialist model and the american free market. that's the amount of a top economic adviser to president elect. donald trump, the ultimate and made and media interviews comes with an incentive. stephen mall said that if the u. k. sites with his nation, the be more willing to send the trumpet ministration to find a trade deal between the 2 allies critics so so that most comment is a statement id. ology an into fee is impertinence, political affairs, the governor of the bank of england, andrew bailey has $1.00. do you take government against picking sides but is that you have a really cool between 2 economic levels or does it have all the choices will that potentially depends on what's at stake? the u. k. might face high a terrace on exports to the us if it chooses to stay close to to europe. on the

campaign trail, donald trump struck and levies of up to 20 percent on all american imports with additional terrace of 60 percent, to 100 percent on goods bought from china. trade talks between the u. k. in the us also hanging the balance. they've long story because of disagreements of agricultural standards, including concerns over the import of chlorinated chicken. a whole loan treated beef into britain bought the bank of england as urged breakfast private as the chemist on the step up. ty is with the you saying that the you case exit from the block has weighed on the nation's economy. that would trade its numbers the matter comb us between the u. k and europe is 3 times logic, the between the u. k. and the us taking as a block the you is the you case, largest overall trade, post and accounting for 43 percent of trade. while the us is britain, the single largest trade pump that with more than $388000000000.00 worth of goods

and services. this year, the u. k. could face almost $28000000000.00 hit to its exports. if trump imposes a blanket 20 percent tariff on all imports, according to due analysis by the university of sussex is interests for inclusive trade policy. well, research as of aston university in england estimated the between 20212023 annual u. k. exports of goods to the you was 17 percent low of them. they would have been had brakes that never happened. joining us from colchester in the u. k as how it read. he's the director of land, but economics and the full chief economist at the institute for public policy research good time you with this, how does the u. k. really have to make this choice between the us or the yours, the governor of the bank of england. right, what he said, the u. k. should just continue trading with everyone. is it always done? well, i think the, the time will continue to try it with both blocks. the us and the a you i think what might happen is that as you've said,

the trumpet ministration may try to pick for you. kyle, is it what by offering a preference? who do i think it would be dangerous to sign up for that because i think it might affect the, the u. k. well i, you probably relationship with you, you, which is our current biggest trading brock and allow you to remain started. so i think it would be dangerous to kind of take back bite. well for the you guys type that bite from the us, but it has been a lot a to insist on opening up. so markets such as a, uh, you know, core and i did check in full months, i'd be friendly agriculture is that do as much as you do taking, james, just don't want to say that happened inside of the you take out. remember, funny. so very important for homework to proceed down that road. okay. as you say, britain would always be the junior pop. now, given the size of the us economy in any trade deal is it, is, it really was because while i'm, you mentioned the issue of, you know, whole bunch,

we had beef incarnated chicken with the british public stand for it. i think by ready wouldn't stand for it. well, predict the british populate, wouldn't stand for, i mean, paul went off the power of the site. they're really opposed to face kind of products, answering the british market. i know so i think that do you type foaming say what's done for. ready the you type governments currently in a kind of dispute with the uh, the british traumas if it changes to inheritance tax. uh, which the following will be, is kind of exactly right to this because most problems in the u. k. one be paying inheritance tax, even though it's been published on the high on not really big farms bought. the monument is probably the worst possible time for the british government to get into a dispute with the side of an agricultural sector. and so i think it's, i think it's very unlikely that case salma and the guy government will, will take up the us on the, on that sort of preferential tradeoff. or even if it was actually all they do, obviously we don't know yet what the jump administration will actually do. so which

would cost the okay. economy more failing to address the gap caused by briggs, it's or the 20 percent tariffs, the trump is threatening on all goods imported into the us. what i would say that i would say that the u. k needs a christ trading relationship with the you move in it and they probably start trading relationship with the us. and so, i mean even if we, even if we went along with some of. ready the us will trump was suggesting, trump is a very kind of, i'm capricious and why would call a character very difficult to 2nd guess. so this policy is probably gonna lead to significant costs for the us economy. probably boost inflation in the us. so we might find the end of tv is the, the us economy is currently doing back of the year incentive guy. so j d paid off through a company is a trunk that might no longer be the type. so the, the might begin to lock

a much better option for the type. and obviously we have breaks it, which is a big kind of case of shooting ourselves in the foot while stuff i think would be out to be rejoined via you any time. so we kind of least push for and more a close to trading relationship with the you are not like nice destiny. what you guys you said i wanted to ask you about. that is, if trump impose us these 20 percent import charts and all goods coming from the you to what extent as the you need trade with, with britain, to the extent that they possibly will give more favorable trading conditions. well, we might get more more try, uh, 5 will try and can just buy the list gonna come with significant strings attached. if we get a thing of that nature and i think it would probably be in the you guys best interest to reject that. and instead push the close to trading links with the with the a you, which is a rate the, a much bigger trading problem there for the u. k than the us is. um,

so i will probably end up getting 20 percent talents across the board for about a few k u. k companies setting into the us and the company selling for us. but we might be able to offset that. we pay the trading arrangements with the because the brake seat we built in 20192020 was pretty how it breaks it out. you know, all trading sites. this would be a huge than that. right? right now we should really, really be looking to improve that really got to talk to you how it on counting the cost manufacturing the data being with us. thanks very much. nice to be much for the return of donald trump is also expected to reshape relations between washington and china. as you heard, badging could face up to 60 percent of tariffs on it. exports to the us, but a chinese bank, mega porch and peru could create new routes that will bypass north america entirely . the project is part of china is pushed to increase its influence in less than america, traditionally seen as the us back yard. but last week,

the presidents of peru in china integrated the 3 and a half $1000000000.00 chunk type port, which is intended to boost trade in the asia pacific region through is hoping the joint venture will transform it into the largest trading help in south america. sorry, go reports. a one smooth fishing village has been transformed into a mega pool. see, see the 3 and a half $1000000000.00 private venture between china improve is the start of the new global trade partnership. it's one that peruse lita who will transform the country well. she has shown that as a preview will be key in the maritime roots of global trade, which will turn into more investments, more trade and development for country. the pulse construction is positive. china is wide of belts and road initiative. we're not only witnessing the solid and successful joint implementation of the belt and road initiative in peru, but also the birth of a new land and maritime cord,

or between asia and latin america. experts say many countries in the global south sea china as the most favorable trading partner. then the us for your, at the floor countries in a lot in american south america that depend so heavily on exports that depend so heavily on placing our goods in the world market. and it seems to me that it china's role in promoting free trade and then promoting more direct, earliest is extremely important. of the pulse is expected to handle 1000000 containers in its foster corporations and reduce travel time between lots in america and asia. by nearly 2 weeks. it's something that is about a local peruvian entrepreneur to exports of toys to china, says will benefit hop business. we're through, we're very excited that the chinese government this investment improve, i think, to add china believe in the lives and what we have the push is expected to generate

around 2000 new jobs by next year. but chan cards may doubts that the economic rewards will trickle down to benefit the entire community. lanita step with thing that ford's focus is on the part, but we have a seat in next week. many needs. some places don't even have drinking water and sewage that is extreme poverty under the 0 public investment it remains unclear how much of the incoming investment would impact the life of the 60000 people living in shanghai. but for now, the city is celebrating, at least the prospect of change, sorry, go out to 0. the counting the cost us in recent decades, indonesia has been something of a success story recording rapid growth rates and reducing extreme poverty. the southeast asian nation is trying to build on that to become

a high income country. within the next 21 years. spending by the nation's middle cost plays a crucial role in driving the economic growth. but the number of engine easy ends of a full into that social group is declining. more than 10000000 people have slipped out of it since 2019. the government is now under pressure to increase the incomes if it wants to scale off its economy. research has found the purchasing power of the middle class and aspiring middle class in indonesia has been decreasing over the past 5 years with a rising cost of living, millions of inter, easy and so now forced to spend more on food and basic needs. the problem is a challenge for presidents proposal bianco, who's pledged to achieve g d p growth of 8 percent of the eliminate the policy. but what is middle class? well, there's no universal definition of what is middle console, how it should be measured. it usually refers to a group of people who are neither very rich nor very pull by world bank definition

that economically secure, which means they have enough income to come a basic needs and some extra money to spend on luxuries, such as vacations on hobbies, based on the institutions criteria the end of easy and government pacifies those who spend between $132.00 to $643.00 a month. as middle class, the spending accounts for nearly 40 percent of private consumption. bolden, 80 percent if combined with the aspiring middle class who spend between $57.00 and $132.00 a month. joining us from chicago in indonesia is tobias pursuits. he's the managing director and co founder of our stock list, consults and full of senior research at the center for strategic and international studies. good to have you with us to buys. why is it an easy is middle class declining? thanks for having the adrian i. yes, that's a i think a major report recently published by the in any agents, the physical agency sounding a lot of the declining middle class in general. the problem is a bit multi faceted,

for one is actually as i think your report mentioned before, the finding the middle class has been quite a challenging issue to define what a truly is a middle class. for example, the indonesian sophistic use of expenditure rather than income. so that's one that being said, being definitions, having a lot of great area, i think, and it's not going to be in the past 5 years. but in the past 10 years, there has been some challenges in, in the growing middle class. i think a lot of people are loving the, a ended growing indonesia middle class from the 2019. what back report. but it seems that on, i think there's a lot of economic policies in addition to also the impact of the corporate 19 pen damage that actually are these a lot of income capacity not a, not so much income per pest, the but expenditure capacity and also rising cost within the indonesian middle

class and other issues. yes. so what does be that easy and government need to do to fix this for one is i thing as a targeted subsidies is one of the biggest issues. the indonesian government has actually a tried its best, but according again to the numbers, if it's something that becomes very complicated, for example, the floor uh for a middle strong middle class, a segment which is the cost 70 percent. now that has reduced by $10000000.00 as a, as a $125.00 or $130.00. and that number is actually the benchmark for the government to decide whether someone or an eta citizen can access subsidies. for example, subsidies for their security education university or other subsidies. and often people with a income above $12530.00 us dollars cannot access those subsidies. all of that income is not, it's not very high,

especially considering the expenditure. probably a gets the same uh the they basically take all their competitors out of their income. so how long will it take to turn this situation on? how long before people begin to feel better off? yeah, i think that's a, that's a 1000000 dollar question. of course, indonesia is not necessarily in the, in a completely batch if the economy is growing, even after depending they happen, the economy grows again, gets close to 5 percent. but i think the incoming government trouble government will be very crucial in, in what kind of policies they're doing. but at this point, we are still a little bit worried because a lot of the signature projects on board presidents, the ex president of what we go to, and the current president bravo, and the free lunch program and the new capital, the ex president, will actually be a fiscal burden towards the indonesian government and in order to actually grow the economy effectively. so i'm hoping that the incoming government will read,

calculate, and re rethink a lot of this policy is especially as fiscal policies, which is also now a big issue in indonesia. the rising of the fat value added tax to the top percent and the mid january 2025. now it's already getting a lot of a rejection from society because it has a multiplier effect. then under the middle class of spending capacity device has been really good still to i'm counting the cost manufacture date for being with us . thank you. thanks for having. that's our show for this week. if you'd like to comment on anything that you've seen, i'm at a finnegan on x. try to remember to use the hash tag a c t c. or you can drop us a line caching. the cost of elder 0. don't net is our email address, as always, there's plenty more few online, and obviously with dot com slash ctc that takes you straight to the page and the, you'll find individual reports links even into additions for you to capture. that's

it for this edition of counting the cost on a tree instead of going from the team here. and so how, thanks for being with us. the news on al jazeera is the, the web results amazon gets most of the attention. the lush atlantic forest has gone largely overlooked. we kind of have a walk, blew up here on what used to be for families farm. these lands have been in my family since the early 19 hundreds. we used to log plant coffee and sugar cane and reese cattle. it was a very different approach to developing the economy. 20 years ago. these used to be grazing lands filled with horses and cows. now it's filled with trees. 810000 representing 500 species of the atlantic forest. the farm was transformed into the environmental n g o had won the lot,

families still runs it now was one of the principles, the largest reforestation project this year has tested for sale yet in the have what reserve people keep moving forward. a forest, we born one trees at a time all through a decade of honoring individuals and institutions working and translation between arabic and 40 other world languages. shake him odd award for translation and international understanding is hosting. it's 10 towards serve. on the 10th of december 2024 in doha guitar, shea come on the award for translation and international understanding from the arabic language to mankind. there are some of the media stories, a critical look at the global news media. on how to 0, government shut off access to social media. what happens in new york has implications all around the world. to make these stories resonate requires talking

to everyday people from mayor of the city and now suddenly doing away with the 1st you want us to get everybody off the street. it's international perspective with the human touch zooming way in and then pulling back out again. the, the more stuff that knives is really forced as issue you forced evacuation warning of today as a tax across the territory. and this is alex, is there a guy from dough? so coming up the scramble to feed the stopping and goes, bakeries reopened off to a silent show.