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best produces the best spaces. and those of the people the i rely on in order to be able to get that message out to the world a hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question. the us says it wants a ceasefire in lebanon, but does it? let's get to the bottom line. the over the past few weeks is really forces invading lebanon, have killed thousands of people, wiped out entire villages and displaced more than a 1000000 people in a country of only about 5000000 people. israel says it wants to destroy the threat of has the law once and for all. the original argument was to allow the 10s of thousands of israelis who fled the fighting along the border to go back home. put more recently and with the spring of military successes, the united states and israel now seem to want more from this war. chiefly getting rid of has the law as a political force in 11 on and with it iran to influence in the region. but can

their plan succeed and does it mean more brutal warfare for weeks or even months? today we're talking with kenneth caps. been a long time analyst on a ron with a congressional research service and author of the warriors of islam iran revolutionary guard. he's currently a senior fellow at the su fonts center and haas on them a founder of middle east alternatives, which focuses on civil society and his womic groups across the region. thank you to both of you for joining me today and helping us to understand the rubik's cube of what's going on with lebanon is real, the broader middle east, etc. but i want to start with you 2 months ago has signed us for all of the long time leader of has the law was assassinated as well as his successor. and they had committed to keeping the war the, the attacks on israel going, as long as the gaza crisis is going. they've now been removed. so when it comes to a ceasefire between is real and has the law, what's getting in the way you're on. but let's, let's speak to you about so especially when we talk about tests on the so much of

the supports that tens of a lot enjoys ended up in a, in, in much off the she community in love. and on back those so far beyond much of that support is not based on the idea a logical orientation of hezbollah, nor on its connection with the on it's based on the cat is a model pass on this on the so the mean ation of pass on the cell creates a serious, violent, my 48 on, you know, set then sense of the facade that to, to, which has, on the side of that was that decision maker. and he had these on agency, except that he's, that us not simply a puppet does. here on, nonetheless, he served as the facade for a year on he was a year ons man ended up. i don't know that he's gone. you're on has to step in effectively and lead even though behind the scenes with name class and being today that the secretary general, but nowhere with the same kind as much. so effectively what spends in the way of

the site today, either commitments or something or something. but let me ask you is real, has succeeded in displacing a 1000000 people in lebanon, has cleared enormous watts of land and territory destroyed entire villages. thousands of people are dead. what do you see is their objective right now? what, what is left to win at this moment? well, that's exactly the question that they've been use ask, and they're not happy about what seems to be the answer. if the intent to us to get to it as a beloved, well, much of that had been done. but they, the intent is far beyond that. that seems again, from lebanese perspective, the intent seems to this story not just testable, but the also the really, the, the, the society, the base of hezbollah, a and said in the south, it says that the systematic destruction of villages in the south ashes from the point of view of the ladies already turned to an occupation that the liberties

suffered from an occupation that effectively create that has by law as it ended up being yeah. has my life indeed existed before it should like the unfolding of the occupation, but becoming what it became? a house on the satellite becoming, who he had become, was largest as a result of the brutal occupation. and for many lebanese, there's a lot of the nation by israel, by is up and here is a boot occupation by isabel, that's coming back. and actually the on do it to because it seems to be an occupation that, that is meant to obliterate the self. so the, the level of really at the level of cruelty shown by the, by the strategies in terms of targeting civilians to out and the level of destruction that they're shot at. it unfolding on the south is not the impressing that of any is as basically this is the force that we cannot resist quite the

opposite. it's key thing get this seething and you feel shape to ation of my b and other version of as well. so hezbollah might have been damage to the point of no return that we can say, okay, it's yet to be seen irrespective of how it's we at. but for sure, the level of the atrocities committed by is that i'm not creating goodwill. we cannot expect the population that's suffering the way it's suffering because of his action to turn and say ok, what we want this piece. and that for really once again, it seems to be that is, that is working in respective off its own logic against its own interest. and if the end of the interest are really present to secure 11 onto the p 8 and to that and on. and that's the most here that is conducive to piece kenneth, i'm interested in, in iran and how it plays it's cards in this case. most powers is that have proxies

play those proxies. and what i'm hearing from us on is that iran is the missing element with regards to a ceasefire. but i'm also interested in how close iran actually wants to be to what's happening right now in 11 on what are your thoughts? yeah, i'm not sure we're on at this point. is there an obstacle to a cease fire? the supreme leader ali accommodate. just sent him m. uh one of his top aides ali laura johnny who was the long time speaker. they are running, paul, i'm going to syria and lebanon. and basically, the lebanese asked him if we have a ceasefire with israel agreement, don't have to fear, don't block it. and he agreed and said, the supreme leader essentially agree and said, well if, if you and is really agree to a cease fire visible on israel agreed with see spar. we're not gonna stand in the way. we're not going to obstruct it. now we're, you know,

we don't know what's really true or not, but that's publicly what was this just for a minute, doesn't it? so within a ron, doesn't it fit within it, ron? that doesn't seem that interested in escalating. we'll conflict with this real answer. the question is, is iran really trying to side step a revenge for sold him on a revenge for nice wrong? well, they don't want to escalate. they also don't want his beloved to take any more punishment . so they would prefer to have a cease fire. read his blog tickets, losses for now and then maybe rebuild it later. try to find ways around is rarely air strikes to continue to arm his full, let it live to fight another day. if they obstruct to cease fire and is real, keeps attacking. there is a danger his block could collapse. some arab diplomats say it has effectively collapse named custom. they could have appointed him after ness rolla was killed, right? they didn't, they wanted to

a point. somebody else who was killed named costume is not house on us. we're all on this, this is not the, these are not comparable. now, the escalation issue on iraq. what they fundamentally want to avoid is war with the united states of america. because they know that that could not only lead to a military setback, that could lead to a collapse of the economy. and the regime entirely comedy has always sought to avoid direct conflict with the united states of america. we go a step further on that with you just said about wanting to give has blog the opportunity to fight another day, we arm, etc. isn't that exactly one of the fundamental tracks that is really saying absolutely no way and, and, and for those of you that are following the negotiations, they want the right to can junior to intervene and to be there has lot, the lot of course doesn't want that but if you're thinking from israel shoes, wouldn't you want that a bill and that's why there's been no agreement. and it's the same with gods is

real. what's the ability to intervene repeatedly to make sure how much does not build back in a rog wants them to be as a how much wants to be able to build back. this is why there's been this is why it's so difficult to get these diplomatic agreements finalized because the 2 sides have diametrically opposed visions of where they want to be 510 years from now. but the us government is saying with its lead negotiator, amos hochstein, that they're so close. do you believe them? i think it's close, but you know is fundamentally there till everything's agreed. nothing is a great and so is it could be close, but never it could possibly never get there. but i believe i believe the points of the dispute are, are small. at this point, i saw me let me ask you, is there essentially an implicit deal right now between the christian lebanese, the sunni lebanese, with the united states. and his real to this, you know,

basically disabuse themselves of the she, i love and i wouldn't go that far. and for that matter, tell me where, where the line. so i, i would consider even the characterization it says if, if this is how you're that missed the new station is thinking, the characterization it says is really very shaky because there is no such thing as a cohesive. any one of these groups, communities that involve in on i not that do not have a political unity anywhere. but besides that, i think in terms of the negotiations, it's important whether in the case so far as the and now in the case of the rep and on the journey is the reward being of the by products that the negotiations yields . the u. r. seems to be the purpose of the negotiations rather than a final agreement in this, in this case city, it's inconceivable. that is what i had was accept an agreement in which it concedes effectively to parity with hezbollah. so it had hit slab and on his butt law head

says read, and then an agreement stops. all of that as if we're equally popular. 0 equal to enter, lockets us to the us. i think it's more of the case that the what the, what has been achieved so far as a result of these negotiations is the d competing between 11 and garza that has been achieved and this is already a major blow to his beloved. why? because has done the sun up before his bath had promised that the water force of support thing there was no anything to continue. so the fact that that hezbollah has is now a greeting, so as having an impact. but let's listen to come to your point for a moment to state department spokesman matthew miller, who made an interesting comment last month, very relevant list. listen to matt miller. what we want to see come out of this situation ultimately is loving on able to break the grip that hezbollah has had on

the country more than great break the strangle hold that as boys had on the country and remove um, as well as veto over a president, a sound that's a big shift from a joe biden. it's saying, please don't take these actions and move forward. that is a pro active support of taking on has the law and using this moment to read the nation of that. that's why i say that question. is there an implicit arrangement that we should be aware of? has been us policy for the past. actually beckett's, the us policy is used 11 on as another theater of conflict with the on and which eat on to hezbollah, controls, lab and on. and actually it has a lot of to within dot the few years that many people have been loving on. is that not that the, that the, it should like the dismissal of the year on end of hezbollah as a major to force of influence in love and on is not going to use the feet of and on,

but the 11 and that's for those is a the that through american mediation, and an example of that many lebanese think was the maritime borders negotiations in which basic these are the interest prepaids. everyone into i don't seem to have agreed that, that'd be, i should level about it to not those who knew the facts. and that's where if that's the mother of the 11 until come monday live. and these are wary of ok. we, i, i would say with the exception of those who benefits from ear ons presence and they are the minority. all the bodies would want your arms influence to dwindle, to next to nothing. right? okay. not necessarily 0 because actually balancing into and says might be of use for, for some of any. so i, i think that now what, what makes you mentor is doing is making explicit port has been really official policy for so long. and yes,

it coincides with the interests of many of the bodies at face value. if we do not take those fees into account, but to also, or if it's were not done the way it is being done. if the price of good things is f as well, is this waiting to see a community if the price of getting the funds below is the swing alone? thank you back. no, thanks. and i think that's part of the attention. but kenneth, what do you think about this, you know, in terms of, let's go to the excess of resistance and whether it is still there or is it incomplete shambles? well, it's been badly bad, or i think that's very clear. i mean and tell her audience about the accessibility . actually i'm in the desktop, it's almost, it's is blah, it's various pro running and malicious and that it run created during the iran iraq war. and during the us occupation and presence in iraq, various she of alicia's in syria that are allied with the iraq, the militias, the who these in the am and, and iran at the hub. it so happened, spoke approach,

i suppose. but this, this is what i've been saying to other, you know, our tv station slightly as they ask what you know, why the us doesn't have the same approach on guys as on lebanon, on the us view of his bullet is much different than it is the for the palestinians, palaces do not have a state. they've been under occupation. there is not symptoms from us, but there is since sympathy for the palestinians as a community. his blah is a completely different issue. it's viewed as you saw a matthew miller. it's viewed as an iranian project in lebanon is reviewed as a ron taking hostage lab, taking limit on hostage it's viewed from the marine bat, remember they bomb the marine barracks. they bomb the u. s. embassy. they took her to roberts theater. they also ran elections. i came yeah,

the unusual in the sense that they were part of a mirror, a political life and civic life in the us is not a posted them being a political party. the us has got a post to them giving up charity and having social charity organizations. the us is, the us view is the lebanese armed forces is vig, should be the only on force environment on under the command of the prime minister, the president, the parliament, right. not some independent one, a state of that lebanese armed forces. well, it's weak suite different by cali, but the, your, the, the us as a we give assistance to it, but it's weak. it has in the civil war, it fractured. it can fracture again. it's brittle because of the different communities in it. and so the us wants it to be stronger so that it can be implemented any agreement that is agreed to in south web assigned. you see the

dynamics of this leading to any kind of general stability or a different different equilibrium that will be more stable or do you, i mean, i listen to you and what i'm telling you, what it leads me to think is full on civil war is coming possibility back, not, not necessarily the case to be that the there is, are there. and that obviously due to the fact that there has been a serious disagreement in driving on over the past many decades now about the presence and the role of has well, the exception of called the to hezbollah. as an, i'm the group actually melisha beyond the police, a full fledged army. actually, the, the comparison that can be made here is that indeed has of allow us to either on what or is to eat on what the soft lab in an army was to is that the only ones in both cases has been use who are trained to equipped by an outside force and who are, will follow effectively the that the desires of that's outside for us. but that has

changed considerably because since the beginning of so that remind me actually it's cynthia as, as a nation of today money has on the assume the role of the leader of the excess, the for existence. so basically the, even the relationship with either on was no longer as sites forward mean except the past has by itself would have, can see that in the past, we wait for or doesn't, we will be the orders. but all of a sudden they seem to be giving orders and they seem to be setting strategy. but in any case, that's now the past. the one has to think about that as being the past. the future is where, where, where do we go from here? it depends on how the other lebanese be 8, and so far they have that all the needs have been behaving rather well. i mean that the reception of those refugees that those display, some turner is, but it's people who are moving from all over the south end of the car to, to other places. and i've been on the have been very well received. and i think this goodwill should be be based upon in what comes next. but the political

disagreements continues and i do not see i live in east proposition. that is the nation that is able to take that off and on for what he lying on the united states in my mind is overrated. because ultimately the united states is administration that change and the united states is about the united states and isn't it? i always talk about that because i just talked about a new administration coming and donald trump is coming in. it will be president of the united states on january 20th of 2025. yeah, i wouldn't want to convince audiences the, the webinar is going to be a focus of mr. trump's. yeah, it's not, it's not. i mean, he wants it over. yeah. before he even gets there, he would prefer. now now you know, but, but around is going to be a focus. right, ron china, you claim russia is iran afraid of donald trump? oh yeah. oh, they are very afraid of donald trump, extra. he killed stolen money. we talked about cost of solely money,

maximum pressure. one of his 1st moves once he gets in is to try to convince china to stop buying around an oil that is going to be front and center of his. a center piece of visit ministration is trying to strangle their rounds economy. he is going to try to convince the gulf states that maybe he should have responded when they arrived shot at the saturday oil fields in 2019. it looked at who was appointed. all of them very hard line on their wrong, extremely anti the islamic republic, uniformly. now mr. trump, himself does not want another war. he does not want to get into a war. he wants to prevent them invoice, but if you look at the lineup this, this is a line up that is not going to tolerate in iranian nuclear weapon and is going to squeeze iran every which way from sunday as they can me. her son donald trump's

daughter's father in law, is an automotive uh type to name a sod bolos. he's been going around the middle leasing. trump's a peacemaker. do you agree? i don't see that to a, in the case of the, the coming trump administration. i think the focus is not going to be the non, however, it can be at the detriment of that a non indeed russian get into it. so he was shown that would fit is or as interest and not governance interest. and not for that matter, the palestinian interest is sought off. after all, we have to think of the deal of the sense the as the templates. that might be the pizza in one format another. and frankly, that deed of the sense that he might look for someone who does not follow as if it has value. but actually it was a recipe for generation of these aster. and even the other hand, make a codes in which basically we have as well, at peace with every one inside except the palestinians. while as a matter of fact,

it needs to be in peace 1st and foremost, and maybe solely with the palestinians. because everything as the eyes from that. so if, if we're talking with an administration, that's what that would follow those same patterns of ignoring the fact that there's a palestinian question that's not going to be dismissed simply by wishing it to go away a. and 2nd, that there is, in the case of 7 on the complicated situation, i know, as well as not nearly a tune up here on has by law is after all, and indigenous, an actual organic part of 7 on as, as you pointed out, that he thought that the elections that door and that for killing cause of a lot would not work if the intent is to kill the hands of a law in order to secure peace and love and on it went to work. it might, it might seem to work, but then it would lead to, to the emergence of the same problems again. but with the new innovation would be hard. well,

middest analysts can cast been and haas on monday. thank you both so much for being with us today. thank you so much. i so what's the bottom line is real speed. his plan is to go as long as it takes to re engineer palestinian and lebanese society and root out every vestige of has the law and hum us. and if it takes displacing millions, killing thousands upon thousands and starving the rest. well, that's ok. anyone who points out the consequences of this path of chaos is deemed to be an enemy of israel. and that includes the international criminal court, the united nations, human rights defenders, you name it. american deployed hundreds of thousands of troops and forever wars in afghanistan and iraq, killing hundreds of thousands of people and not really creating much pro american sentiment. who would have thought that bombing people to death won't totally re wire societies and make them more happy and complacent. but as long as the us, israel's biggest sponsor, regardless of which parties and power,

allows it to operate without consequence. here we are. and that's the bottom line. the in the 19 fifties and sixties african countries gained independence from the colonizers and increased efforts to reclaim the cultural heritage of 6000 bodies and story. yes, it's very hard. a documentary series reveals how you repeat in countries, refused their request, and even exhibited human remains. and that means even restitution. africa stove, enough episode to go down to 0. examining the headlines what they wanted to do, they want that to leave the without. has system unflinching that and then there's one side of the group of people who call themselves the research patriot and on the other side. so i'm 2 races, processes sharing personal stories with

a global audience. what is the see like working on a rooftop? that's a single, thanks to an abundance of well tough programming. vera unique fast tonight increases. he found nowhere else on the on which is the right a meeting of minds exclusively would freedom which is used to cover so many different things. the family or mainstream economics. if that happens in any other profession, they will be fine. yeah. well not just fine that they would go to prison musical in the day to brian, you know, meets renowned economist, hod june chang. part one. i see a lot of hope. i see a lot of experiments going on in the studio. i'd be unscripted on al jazeera the anyhow. so what i understood it was how does it should always, how was that guy shows up on into john nissan and the shows are ginger oh,

shit. feel of the season floating sounds angle always in they all thought was in the the, [000:00:00;00] the hello, i'm sammy say them. this is the news live from dell. how coming up in the next 60 minutes? powerful is randy strikes hit central by root canning, at least 4 people and 23 others are engine. palestinians targeted in the gaza strip at least 10 killed best off. also,